Number 118 • Mar / Apr 2012 • $8.95 Jacob Heilbrunn Beinart’s Woeful Warning John Campbell Struggle in Nigeria Symposium Wilson’s Ghost David M. Shribman The Varied Life of Ike www.nationalinterest.org Gian P. Gentile Who Lost Vietnam? Afghanistan Past and Future: THE NATIONAL INTEREST The West’s Limited Legacy ◊ NUMBER118 ◊ MAR / APR 2012 A Stubborn Land by Michael Hart Britain’s Afghan Agony by Seth G. Jones a) more oil b) more natural gas c) more wind d) more solar e) more biofuels f) energy efficiency g) all of the above To enhance America’s energy and economic security, we must secure more of the energy we consume. That means expanding the use of wind, solar and biofuels, as well as opening new offshore areas to oil and gas production. Through efficiency and increased domestic production, we can reduce the flow of dollars overseas and invest those funds at home to create new jobs and billions in new government revenue. BP is the nation’s largest energy investor, and we’d like to do more. Learn more at bp.com/us. beyoned p troleum® © 2009 BP Products North America Inc. Untitled-1 1 8/7/09 2:34:08 PM Client: BP Safety: 6” x 9” Mechanical Scale: 100% Campaign: BP Energy Security Trim: 7” x 10” Format: Full Page 4/C Ad #: BP-09-1N R2 Bleed: 7.5” x 10.5” Printer: Ad Title: Tickmark - More of the above (with copy) Media Vendor / Publication: Version/Revision #: V2 The National Interest / Foreign Affairs Date Modified: March 31, 2009 Operator: rt/AC/rt Schawk Docket #:886691-05 Number 118 . March/April 2012 The Realist 5 The False Neocon View of Reagan by Robert W. Merry There’s a dangerous illusion in the neocon legend of Ronald Reagan—that he abruptly changed course in Cold War policy and set the country upon the expansive overseas adventurism of the past decade. This is false. Reagan waged the Cold War as his predecessors had, and he never embraced the views of latter-day neocons. We must beware of faulty lessons about his stewardship. Articles 8 West’s Afghan Hopes Collide with Reality by Michael Hart The military outcome in Afghanistan won’t resemble the vision of America and its allies, who wanted a strong, Western-aligned central government keeping the Taliban at bay. But the Taliban still may be confined to the country’s southern and eastern enclaves, and al-Qaeda could be thwarted from establishing staging bases there. Reality suggests the goals should now be less ambitious. 20 Iraq’s Federalism Quandary by Sean Kane, Joost R. Hiltermann and Raad Alkadiri Beyond the growing sectarian violence besetting Iraq, the country also faces major questions regarding its federal structure—essentially, the power-sharing arrangements between Baghdad and Iraq’s various regions. A solution to this nettlesome question probably requires granting a greater level of autonomy to the country’s Kurds than to other regions. 31 Nigeria’s Battle for Stability by John Campbell Despite a veneer of democracy, this oil-rich West African nation has suffered from dysfunctional governance for decades. The recent election of Goodluck Jonathan hasn’t improved things, and tensions between the Christian South and the Muslim North are rising. With Nigerians wondering if their country can hold together, the need for creative American diplomacy increases. Symposium 40 Does Libya Represent a New Wilsonism? Last issue’s cover story by Nikolas K. Gvosdev and Ray Takeyh—“Triumph of the New Wilsonism”— suggested America’s Libyan incursion could represent the ascendancy of a new doctrine placing far greater emphasis on humanitarian considerations than national interest in driving presidential war decisions. Now we hear from three leading thinkers on the subject—Leslie H. Gelb, Patrick J. Buchanan and Marc Lynch. Gvosdev and Takeyh then reply. Reviews & Essays 52 Imperial Britain’s Afghan Agony by Seth G. Jones America’s decade-long effort to shape events in Afghanistan has many historical antecedents. None ended in greater tragedy than Britain’s involvement in those fierce mountain lands from 1838–1842. The result was the slaughter of some eight thousand troops and support personnel. Diana Preston offers an account of this sad tale that is both well researched and well written. 59 Even Academics Like Ike Now by David M. Shribman Dwight D. Eisenhower was a paradoxical man—warm in large groups but frosty in person; not an intellectual but steeped in history; in many ways a simple man who dominated the giants of his time, in the nation and the world, for fifteen years. Now comes Jean Edward Smith’s hefty biography offering fresh insight into how a man so self-effacing could be so effective. 69 Beinart’s Quest to Save Zionism by Jacob Heilbrunn How can Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu mobilize American politicians so forcefully against a U.S. president manifestly committed to Israeli interests? Peter Beinart’s powerful new book offers a provocative answer: prominent U.S. Jewish leaders have commandeered once-proud Jewish organizations and turned them into a potent agency for Likud Party interests. 79 Great Catherine’s Many Dimensions by Richard S. Wortman She was brilliant, willful, clever, charismatic and utterly dedicated to her adopted Russia. And Catherine the Great’s stirring story is captured by biographer Robert K. Massie with his usual literary lilt and narrative drive. But, by focusing on her personal life, Massie slights her role as absolute monarch obsessed with the enlightenment and power of the country she ruled. 89 The Better War That Never Was by Gian P. Gentile The “better-war” thesis argues that the general in charge of this or that failed war could have succeeded brilliantly if he had just pursued different tactics. But often this misses entirely the crucial role of faulty strategies. William Westmoreland’s Vietnam ordeal offers a case in point. Though not a brilliant general, he deserves better than this latest assault by Lewis Sorley. Images Corbis: pages 11, 14, 16, 42, 60, 63, 66, 83, 85, 88, 91, 94; Getty: pages 24, 26, 29, 47, 49, 54, 57; iStockPhoto: pages 35, 37, 71, 74, 78 Published by The Center for the National Interest Maurice R. Greenberg Chairman Henry A. Kissinger Honorary Chairman James Schlesinger Chairman, Advisory Council Robert W. Merry Editor Dimitri K. Simes Publisher & CEO Lewis E. McCrary Managing Editor Paul J. Saunders Associate Publisher Abby E. Arganese Assistant Managing Editor Alexa McMahon Assistant Managing Editor Advisory Council Robert Golan-Vilella Assistant Editor Morton Abramowitz Graham Allison Senior Editors Patrick J. Buchanan Daniel W. Drezner Ahmed Charai Nikolas K. Gvosdev Leslie H. Gelb Jacob Heilbrunn Evan G. Greenberg Anatol Lieven Zalmay Khalilzad Contributing Editors John J. Mearsheimer Aram Bakshian Jr. Richard Plepler Ian Bremmer Alexey Pushkov Ted Galen Carpenter Brent Scowcroft Ariel Cohen Ruth Wedgwood Bruce Hoffman J. Robinson West Paul R. Pillar Dov Zakheim Kenneth M. Pollack Owen Harries Editor Emeritus Cover Design: Emma Hansen Robert W. Tucker Editor Emeritus Cover Images: ©Reza Deghati/Corbis Editorial Office The National Interest, 1615 L Street, nw, Suite 1230, Washington, dc 20036. Telephone: (202) 467-4884, Fax: (202) 467-0006, Email: [email protected], Website: http://nationalinterest.org Subscription Office Postmaster and subscribers please send address changes and subscription orders to: The National Interest, P.O. Box 9001, Maple Shade, nj 08052-9662. Telephone: (856) 380-4130; (800) 344-7952 Rate: $39.95/yr. Please add $20/year outside the United States and Canada. The National Interest (ISSN 0884-9382) is published bimonthly by the Center for the National Interest. Articles are abstracted and indexed in P.A.I.S., Historical Abstracts, International Political Science Abstracts, U.S. Political Science Documents, Political Science Abstracts and America: History and Life; articles are available on microfilm from University Microfilms International, and archived on Lexis-Nexis. Periodicals postage is paid at Washington, dc, and at additional mailing offices. ©2012 by The National Interest, Inc. The National Interest is printed by Fry Communications, Inc. It is distributed in the U.S. and Canada by Ingram Periodicals (18 Ingram Blvd., La Vergne, tn 37086; 615-793-5522) and Source Interlink Companies (27500 Riverview Center Blvd., Bonita Springs, fl 34134; 239-949-4450). The Realist gan’s forceful—and successful—confronta- The False Neocon tion with Soviet Communism in the 1980s. Back in 2002, when neoconservative war View of Reagan advocates were beating the drums for the Iraq invasion, William Kristol, editor of By Robert W. Merry the neoconservative Weekly Standard, told the Financial Times: “Americans see clear- ly which are democratic states and which f all the U.S. presidents since are tyrannies in the world today, as they Franklin Roosevelt, none stands did when the Soviet Union was the main O taller in history or exercises a enemy.” Writing in Kristol’s magazine, greater lingering influence on American Reuel Marc Gerecht declared that George politics than Ronald Reagan. Republican W. Bush’s “liberation theology” constituted politicians invoke his name as example and a “Reaganesque approach.” Bush himself, lodestar, and Democrats have granted him in declaring that the “advance of freedom is increasing respect as the passions of his the calling of our time,” invoked Reagan as presidential years have ebbed with time. a progenitor of his missionary drive. Some Surveys of academics on presidential perfor- months later, Kristol noted admiringly that mance, initially dismissive, now rank him Bush’s foreign-policy advisers, nudging the among the best of the White House breed. country to war, were “all Reaganites.” Even President Obama has extolled his ap- More recently, these efforts to wrap Bush’s proach to presidential leadership.