This electronic thesis or dissertation has been downloaded from the King’s Research Portal at https://kclpure.kcl.ac.uk/portal/ Defence reviews in times of economic turmoil British and German reserve forces in transformation (2010-2015 / 1970-1979) De Soet, Jeannine V De Soet Awarding institution: King's College London The copyright of this thesis rests with the author and no quotation from it or information derived from it may be published without proper acknowledgement. END USER LICENCE AGREEMENT Unless another licence is stated on the immediately following page this work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International licence. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/ You are free to copy, distribute and transmit the work Under the following conditions: Attribution: You must attribute the work in the manner specified by the author (but not in any way that suggests that they endorse you or your use of the work). 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Sep. 2021 KING’S COLLEGE LONDON University of London Faculty of Social Science and Public Policy School of Security Studies / School of Politics & Economics Department of War Studies / Department of Political Economy DOCTORAL THESIS Defence Reviews in Times of Economic Turmoil: British and German Reserve Forces in Transformation (2010-2015 / 1970-1979) Submitted by Jeannine V. de Soet for the Degree of Doctor of Philosophy 2019 1 Acknowledgements Begegnet uns jemand, der uns Dank schuldig ist, gleich fällt es uns ein. Wie oft können wir jemand begegnen, dem wir Dank schuldig sind, ohne daran zu denken.1 - Johann Wolfgang von Goethe -2 In an attempt to prove Goethe wrong, I would first like to express my sincere gratitude to my PhD supervisors, Prof Dr John Gearson and Prof Dr Ken Young, for their continuous support of this project. Their profound professional knowledge, encouragement and patience guided me through all stages of research. I am grateful that I had the opportunity to work with these two outstanding academics. Furthermore, I would like to thank my mother, who has always believed in me and continuously supported me during this rewarding yet challenging stage of my life. Last but not least, I would like to thank my friends Ashley, Charitini, and Elena, who kept me focused and encouraged me to exceed my abilities. 1 ‘If we meet someone who owes us gratitude, we are quick to remember. However, how often do we meet someone to whom we owe our gratitude without remembering to give thanks’. Translated by the author; Johann Wolfgang Goethe, Maximen und Reflexionen: Sprüche in Prosa (Berlin: Contumax, 2016), Google Books Online Reader, 4. 2 German Writer and Poet (1749-1832). 2 Contents Acknowledgements 2 List of Tables 6 List of Figures 7 List of Abbreviations 8 1 Study Approach 10 1.1 Introduction . 10 1.1.1 The Thesis in a Nutshell . 10 1.1.2 Research Questions . 11 1.2 Methodology . 12 1.2.1 The Most Similar Systems Design . 12 1.2.2 The Mixed Methods Approach . 28 1.3 Academic Discourse and Research Gap . 31 1.3.1 Literature Analysis Process . 31 1.3.2 Research Gap and Contribution . 49 1.4 Sources and Data Collection . 49 1.4.1 Primary Sources: Types of Sources Used . 49 1.4.2 Primary Sources: Access and Sources Collection . 56 1.4.3 Secondary Sources: Types of Sources Used . 59 1.4.4 Secondary Sources: Access and Sources Collection . 64 2 Britain’s Future Reserve 2020 65 2.1 The Future Reserve 2020 in Context . 66 2.1.1 The 2010 Review: Key Documents . 66 2.1.2 Savings Goals and Defence Expenditure . 72 2.1.3 The Security Environment . 75 2.2 The Future Reserve 2020 . 82 2.2.1 Identified Issues and Proposed Solutions . 82 2.2.2 The Future Reserve 2020 in the Single Services . 93 2.3 Key Findings . 98 3 Britain’s Post-Mason Review Reserve Force 100 3.1 The Post-Mason Reserve Force in Context . 101 3.1.1 The 1975 Mason Review: Key Issues and Envisaged Measures . 101 3.1.2 Defence Spending in Context . 110 3.1.3 The Security Environment . 111 3.2 The Post-Mason Reserve Force . 115 3.2.1 Army . 115 3 3.2.2 Royal Navy . 122 3.2.3 Royal Air Force . 127 3.3 Key Findings . 129 4 Germany’s 2012 Conception of Reserve 131 4.1 The 2012 Conception of Reserve in Context . 132 4.1.1 Envisaged Measures and Financial Considerations . 132 4.1.2 Savings Goals and Defence Expenditure in Context . 138 4.1.3 The Security Environment . 141 4.2 The 2012 Conception of Reserve . 148 4.2.1 Revised Structures for Homeland Defence . 148 4.2.2 Societal Roles and Recruitment . 156 4.3 Key Findings . 169 5 Germany’s 1970s Wehrstrukturreform and the Reserve Force 171 5.1 The Wehrstrukturreform in Context . 172 5.1.1 The 1970s: A Decade of Defence Reviews . 172 5.1.2 Savings Goals and Defence Expenditure . 181 5.1.3 Security Environment . 183 5.2 The Reserve in the 1973 Wehrstrukturreform ................194 5.2.1 The 1970s: Discovering the Importance of the Reserve . 194 5.2.2 Recruitment and the Außerparlamentarische Opposition .....199 5.3 Key Findings . 206 6 Comparative Analyses and Conclusion 208 6.1 Comparative Analyses . 209 6.1.1 The Contemporary Examples . 209 6.1.2 The Historical Examples . 216 6.2 Findings . 223 6.3 Conclusion . 225 6.4 Suggested Further Research . 226 Bibliography 228 Appendix A: Glossary of Terms 278 Appendix B: Ethical Approval 282 4 List of Tables 1.1 Extraneous Variance: Austria, Britain, Germany, Ireland, and Switzerland 17 1.2 Experimental Variance, Explanatory Factors, and Outcome: Britain and Germany . 20 2.1 Defence Expenditure (2010-2015) . 74 2.2 MoD Staff and Military Staff Costs (2010-2015) . 76 2.3 Total Volunteer Reserves in Numbers (2010-2015/2000-2005) . 85 2.4 Army Volunteer Reserves in Numbers (2010-2015/2000-2005) . 86 2.5 Maritime Volunteer Reserves in Numbers (2010-2015/2000-2005) . 86 2.6 RAF Volunteer Reserves in Numbers (2010-2015/2000-2005) . 87 3.1 Army Regulars in Numbers (1970-1979) . 107 3.2 Royal Navy Regulars in Numbers (1970-1979) . 108 3.3 Royal Air Force Regulars (1970-1979) . 109 3.4 Defence Expenditure (1974-1978) . 110 3.5 Defence Expenditure (1979-1983) . 111 3.6 Army Reservists in Numbers (1970-1979) . 116 3.7 Royal Navy Reservists in Numbers (1970-1979) . 123 3.8 Royal Air Force Reservists in Numbers (1970-1979) . 128 4.1 Total Numbers of MoD Personnel (2010 and Aspired) . 137 4.2 Annual Service Members Salaries in Million Euros (2006-2010) . 138 4.3 Annual Service Members Salaries in Million Euros (2011-2015) . 139 4.4 Federal Defence Expenditure (2010-2014) . 140 4.5 Commands and RSSU Reservists Numbers (Status: 12/2017) . 157 4.6 Advertising Expenditure in Million Euros (2006-2015) . 169 5.1 Federal Defence Expenditure (1970-1974) . 182 5.2 Federal Defence Expenditure (1975-1979) . 183 5.3 Kriegsdienstverweigerer (1965-1980) . 201 5.4 Zivildienstleistende (1965-1980) . 204 6.1 Contemporary Examples: Defence Budgets and Economisation Measures 211 6.2 British and German Defence Expenditure (2010-2014) . 212 6.3 Contemporary Examples: Perceived Threats . 213 6.4 Contemporary Examples: Implications for Reservists . 215 6.5 Contemporary Examples: Explanatory Factor and Outcome . 216 6.6 Historical Examples: Defence Budgets and Economisation Measures . 218 6.7 British and German Defence Expenditure (1970-1974) . 219 6.8 British and German Defence Expenditure (1975-1979) . 219 6.9 Historical Examples: Perceived Threats and Strategical Focus . 221 6.10 Historical Examples: Implications for Reservists . 222 5 6.11 Historical Examples: Explanatory Factor and Outcome . 223 6.12 Findings . 224 6 List of Figures 1.1 GDP Change in Per Cent, Britain and Germany (2007-2012) . 24 1.2 GDP Change in Per Cent, Britain and Germany (1970-1979) . 27 4.1 Reservists in Regular Bundeswehr Units . 152 4.2 The Pillars of the Reserve . 153 4.3 Command Structure and Organisation . 155 7 List of Abbreviations 1971-COR 1971 Conception of Reserve 1972-CSR 1972 Commission on Structural Reform 2003-CFR 2003 Conception for Reservists 2010-CSR 2010 Commission on Structural Reform 2010-NSS 2010 National Security Strategy 2010-SDSR 2010 Strategic Defence and Security Review 2011-DPG 2011 Defence Policy Guidelines 2012-COR 2012 Conception of Reserve ABM-Treaty Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty APO Außerparlamentarische Opposition BAOR British Army of the Rhine BCTT Bundeswehr Command for Territorial Tasks CSCE Conference on Security and Co-operation in Europe CSSR Czechoslovak Socialist Republic DRA Defence Reform Act EEC European Economic Community EU European Union FF-2020 Future Force 2020 FR-2020 Future Reserves 2020 FRG Federal Republic of Germany GDP Gross Domestic Product GDR German Democratic Republic GNP Gross National Product 8 LSMPA Legal Status of Military Personnel Act LSRA Legal Status of Reservists Act MBFR Mutual and Balanced Force Reductions MDSD Most Different Systems Design MoD Ministry of Defence MSSD Most Similar Systems Design NATO North Atlantic Treaty Organization NGOs Non-Governmental Organisations NPA National People’s Army NPT Non-Proliferation Treaty OECD Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development RSSU Regional Security and Support Units RAF Royal Air Force RAuxAF Royal Auxiliary Air Force 1996-RFA 1996 Reserve Forces Act RMR Royal Marine Reserve RMVR Royal Marine Volunteer Reserve RN Royal Navy RNR Royal Naval Reserve RUSI Royal United Services Institute SACEUR Supreme Allied Commander Europe SALT Strategic Arms Limitation Talks SIPRI Stockholm International Peace Research Institute TAVR Territorial Army and Volunteer Reserve UKLF United Kingdom Land Forces UN United Nations UNSC United Nations Security Council 9 Chapter 1 Study Approach Das Höchste wäre: zu begreifen, daß alles Faktische schon Theorie ist.