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Conceptual Framework for a Rapid Space Launch Capability By Conceptual Framework for a Rapid Space Launch Capability by Phillip C. Reid B.A. in Physics, Astro-geophysics, August 1986, University of Colorado, Boulder M.A.S. in Architecture-based Enterprise Systems Engineering, August 2012, University of California, San Diego A Praxis submitted to The Faculty of The School of Engineering and Applied Science of The George Washington University in partial satisfaction of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Engineering August 31, 2018 Praxis directed by Ali Jarvandi Adjunct Professor of Engineering Management and Applied Science Bentz Tozer Adjunct Professor of Engineering Management and Applied Science The School of Engineering and Applied Science of The George Washington University certifies that Phillip C. Reid has passed the Final Examination for the degree of Doctor of Engineering as of June 28, 2018. This is the final and approved form of the praxis. Conceptual Framework for a Rapid Space Launch Capability Phillip C. Reid Praxis Research Committee: Ali Jarvandi, Adjunct Professor of Engineering and Applied Science, Praxis Co-Director Bentz Tozer, Adjunct Professor of Engineering and Applied Science, Praxis Co-Director Amirhossein Etemadi, Assistant Professor of Engineering and Applied Science, Committee Member Ebrahim Malalla, Visiting Associate Professor of Engineering and Applied Science, Committee Member John G. Keller, Ph.D., Senior Aerospace Engineer, Phantom Works, The Boeing Company, Cutting Edge Communications, Committee Member ii © Copyright 2018 by Phillip C. Reid All rights reserved iii Dedication TO MY WIFE and DAUGHTER Susanne and Jane, for all of their love, encouragement, and enduring patience throughout this journey IN DEDICATION TO MY PARENTS and LITTLE BROTHER Who were always a great inspiration in my endeavors, but passed away during this journey, yet got to see it through to the end smiling down from heaven. Beloved parents, Robert C. Reid (2016) and Joan E. Reid (2017), and wonderful Brother, David H. Reid (2014) iv Acknowledgments The author wishes to acknowledge my work colleagues that offered encouragement and technical guidance throughout the research. Specifically, from the Aerospace community, legends in their fields, James Ball, Timothy Kilgore, Dr. John Keller, Eric Burgdorf, Bill Cook, Rodney Davis, Bob Friend, Kenny Kwan, Tom Mulder, Dan Nowlan, Jay Penn, Dr. Robert Sandusky, and Tony Straw. Thank you to my teaching colleagues from my evening job, teaching as an Adjunct Professor, especially Dr. Susanne Reid, Dr. Tara Sirvent, and Dr. Cecil Miller, who all provided the motivation and inspiration necessary to complete this praxis research. Thank you to the professors at The George Washington University and to the students in my cohort, who helped make this a productive, rewarding, and enjoyable experience. v Abstract of Praxis Conceptual Framework for a Rapid Space Launch Capability Launches of satellites require years of advance planning leading to lower national and economic security posture. A new construct is required for rapidly enabling access to space for global urgent mission needs. A new construct is required for effectively enabling a launch of a satellite to orbit in 24 hours or less. This long duration and high cost process is resulting in a barrier and congestion in placing crucial space assets into space. The current space mission planning process takes on an average of 24 months to plan, from customer initial meeting with launch provider to launch day, for new missions, with launch activities taking several weeks. Current satellite customers require launches of their satellites in 24 hours or less in response to natural disasters, rescue missions, communications outages, or urgent military tactical needs. So, what activities could be performed in advance of launch day, able to be placed “on the shelf” in a launch readiness storage state, enabling a rapid launch to orbit mission (e.g. 24 hours or less)? Assuming those prior efforts have been successfully accomplished and maintained, in the form of agreements, mission associated data, satellites built and sitting in flyable storage, what launch process construct could be developed to enable a rapid launch to orbit with a critical payload(s)? This latter problem statement is the focus of this study, a rapid launch process for space. Practical applications of this proposed construct include, in response to a natural disaster, an agency would be able to restore communications over a region for medical and rescue personnel with orbital cell-towers, or be able to place electro-optical sensors vi over a region for rapid damage assessments with orbital telescopes. Other examples include timely delivery of supplies directly to personnel in need, or in response to volcanic eruptions threatening populated areas, unattended sensors can rapidly be delivered to around the rim of the volcanoes (suborbital payloads example, using reentry coronal capsules). Research methodologies performed include modeling of rapid launch process Monte Carlo simulations and expert elicitation for model validation. An executable timeline model has been developed for simulating this framework. vii Table of Contents Dedication ..................................................................................................................... iv Acknowledgments................................................................................................................v Abstract of Praxis ............................................................................................................... vi List of Figures .................................................................................................................... xi List of Tables ................................................................................................................... xiii List of Acronyms ............................................................................................................. xiv List of Symbols / Nomenclature ...................................................................................... xxi Chapter 1 - Introduction ...................................................................................................1 1.1 Background.............................................................................................................1 1.2 Problem Statement ..................................................................................................4 1.3 Thesis Statement .....................................................................................................6 1.4 Research Questions ................................................................................................6 1.5 Research Objectives ...............................................................................................7 1.6 Research Hypotheses ..............................................................................................7 1.7 Limitations ..............................................................................................................7 1.8 Document Organization ..........................................................................................8 Chapter 2 - Literature Review ........................................................................................10 2.1 Commercial Launch Operations ...........................................................................11 2.2 Military Launch Operations .................................................................................12 2.3 Civil Space Operations .........................................................................................17 2.4 Space Launch Processes .......................................................................................19 viii 2.4.1 Terrestrial-Launch Processes ......................................................................20 2.4.2 Sea-Launch Processes .................................................................................24 2.4.3 Air-Launch Processes ..................................................................................26 2.5 Launch Approvals and Launch Day Service Providers ........................................29 2.5.1 Range Safety Coordination and Approvals .................................................31 2.5.2 Range Operations Coordination and Approvals ..........................................32 2.5.3 Launch Assist Aircraft (LAAC) Coordination and Approvals ...................33 2.5.4 Communications Services Coordination .....................................................33 2.5.5 JSpOC Coordination ....................................................................................34 2.5.6 FAA Coordination and Approvals ..............................................................36 2.5.7 United States Coast Guard (USCG) Coordination ......................................38 2.5.8 National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency (NGA) Coordination .................39 2.5.9 Weather Services Coordination ...................................................................40 2.5.10 Payload Provider(s) Coordination ...............................................................42 2.5.11 Factories Coordination ................................................................................43 2.6 Space Launch Automation Technologies .............................................................43 Chapter 3 - Research Methodology ................................................................................47 3.1 Research Questions
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