Flood warning communication using mobile services in flash flood communities of Bangladesh

Lydia Cumiskey

MSc Thesis WSE-FRM.13-02

August 2013

Flood warning communication using mobile services in flash flood communities of Bangladesh

Master of Science Thesis by Lydia Cumiskey

Supervisors Micha Werner, Phd, MSc (UNESCO-IHE & Deltares) Karen Meijer, Phd, MSc (Deltares) Dick van den Bergh, MSc (Deltares) Mentors Fida Malik Khan, MSc (CEGIS)

Examination committee Prof. Arthur Mynett, Phd, MSc (UNESCO-IHE) Micha Werner, Phd, MSc (UNESCO-IHE & Deltares) Karen Meijer, Phd, MSc (Deltares)

This research is done for the partial fulfilment of requirements for the Master of Science degree at the UNESCO-IHE Institute for Water Education, Delft, the Netherlands

Delft August 2013

©2013by Lydia Cumiskey. All rights reserved. No part of this publication or the information contained herein may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, by photocopying, recording or otherwise, without the prior permission of the author. Although the author and UNESCO-IHE Institute for Water Education have made every effort to ensure that the information in this thesis was correct at

press time, the author and UNESCO-IHE do not assume and hereby disclaim any liability toiv any party for any loss, damage, or disruption caused by errors or omissions, whether such errors or omissions result from negligence, accident, or any other cause.

Abstract

Communicating warning information so it is understood and responded to at the community level is a key step in the flood forecasting, warning and response process. Effective communication is, however, challenging, despite the penetration of communication technologies such as mobile phones. The North East region of Bangladesh is a high risk area for flash flooding. Although continued efforts are being made to develop a warning system, a warning communication system remains undeveloped. This research presents the potential use of mobile services to effectively communicate flash flood warnings to improve the warnings’ social performance. In the context of this research social performance refers to improving the warnings communication using mobile services with the aim to initiate a protective response.

Information was gathered on the current flash flood warning system and the use of mobile services from interviews and meetings with stakeholders at national and regional level. Understanding the characteristics of the communities, their current access to warning information and their needs for warning communication using mobile services were obtained through 12 focus group discussions (FGDs) with different end user groups (farmers, women, fisher-farmers and Union Disaster Management Committees) at four different locations in the North East of Bangladesh and 8 key informant interviews (KIIs) in the area. Warning messages through mobile technologies, Short Messaging Service (SMS), Cell Broadcasting Service (CBS) and Interactive Voice Response (IVR) were demonstrated in the FGDs.

The study firstly demonstrates that the communities are really in demand of flash flood warning information and the current efforts to improve this are not being satisfactorily achieved at the community level. Secondly, it was revealed that mobile services are the preferred mode of warning communication in these areas at risk but warnings must be sent before the time of impact, transmit present and forecasted rainfall and water level and also disseminate guidance information. It was understood that voice based services must be a key part of the warning communication system as the communities preferred voice based IVR over SMS and CBS, while Voice SMS was preferred over all other services. The IVR service (demand based) needs to be improved making it more specific to the targeted area and supplemented with push based services. Voice SMS is ideal for targeting individuals and can contain sufficient information while CBS should be used for warnings with short lead times to quickly disseminate to large numbers, once the constraints are resolved. Text based messages need to be simple, use symbols and refer to the IVR for more information. The main obstacles identified for utilising mobile services included the inability to send Bangla text messages, the need for infrastructure and handset updates for CBS and the need for co-operation between mobile phone companies. Bangladesh Water Development Board (BWDB) district offices and local social networks need to play a more proactive role in the dissemination process at the community level but require mobilisation and institutional strengthening to achieve this. A feedback system is required to integrate indigenous knowledge and local conditions. Additionally awareness raising activities, which can be integrated through the local social networks, are prerequisite to engage the end users. Extra emphasis must be placed on providing these communities with flash flood information, allowing them to protect their vulnerable livelihoods. Key words: flash flood early warning, mobile services, communication, Bangladesh.

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Acknowledgements

This thesis was a journey, one that I will never forget, and one that could not have been possible without all the help I received along the way. I would like to especially thank my supervisors Karen Meijer (Deltares) and Micha Werner (UNESCO-IHE/Deltares) for supporting me each step of the way with this study, your knowledge and feedback was truly valued both in formulating the research and providing feedback on numerous revisions of my chapters. Thank you for sharing your knowledge and teaching me how to develop mine. I would like to express my sincere thanks to Dick van de Bergh (Deltares) and Fida Malik Khan (CEGIS) for giving me the opportunity to begin this journey and pursue my wish to conduct a study, focusing on the needs of community people in Bangladesh. Their encouragement, support and mentoring was invaluable throughout my journey. Further thanks to my Erasmus Mundus Flood Risk Management Scholarship and Deltares for the financial support of this research.

To each and every farmer, fisher, housewife, UDMC member and many others in the rural communities of Sunamganj, I am truly grateful for the warm welcome and precious time you gave to me, while conducting my fieldwork. Nonetheless, this fieldwork would not have been possible without the support of many different people and organisations. Firstly my greatest thanks go to my interpreter Saifiquil Islam at CNRS, for accompanying me during the fieldwork and providing me with his devoted support, wealth of knowledge and friendship. Additionally, I would like to express my gratitude to the local NGO’s, Caritas, VARD and CARE Bangladesh in Sunamganj and technical partner RIMES, for allowing to me to visit their project areas and offering me an overwhelming amount of support in arranging the community visits. Additionally, special thanks to Rubel at CEGIS, for his assistance in arranging the fieldwork and always keeping my sprits high. Without your combined patience, hard work and perseverance, the fieldwork for this thesis could not have been possible.

Furthermore in Bangladesh, thanks to everyone who gave me their time to interview them, in particular those at the FFWC, DDM, CMDP and RIMES. A warm thanks to Mr. Saiful Alam (WARPO) for his mentoring and friendship throughout my time in and out of Bangladesh, giving me valuable comments and feedback on my work, allowing me to maintain the Bangladeshi perspective throughout. To my CEGIS colleagues, who were right there by my side in Bangladesh for arranging formalities, answering endless questions and queries, and helping me analyse my results. A special thanks to Kamruzzaman Akand (CEGIS), for his assistance in producing the maps for this report. I found many friendships at CEGIS and look forward to sharing time with them all again.

To my Flood Risk Management (FRM) classmates, boyfriend, family and friends, thank you for your encouragement and belief in me and what I could achieve on this journey. Thank you for sticking with me and understanding when my thesis always seemed to get first preference, over spending time with you. Special thanks to my Bangladeshi classmates Tamim and Atiqul who inspired me to learn about, and discover their country.

During my time in Bangladesh and Deltares I encountered an uncountable number of supportive people, to each and every one my greatest thanks applies.

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Table of Contents

Abstract v

Acknowledgements vi

List of Figures ix

List of Tables x

Abbreviations xi

Glossary xiii

1. Introduction 1 1.1. Background 1 1.2. Problem formulation and motivation 2 1.3. Research questions 5 1.4. Research approach 6 1.5. Innovation and practical value 7

2. Warning communication and response using mobile services 8 2.1. Social performance 8 2.2. Characteristics of the warning 12 2.3. Characteristics of mobile services 17 2.4. Characteristics of the community 23 2.5. Identified factors affecting social performance 27

3. Methodology 28 3.1. Research tools 28 3.2. Selection of case study sites and participants 31 3.3. Data analysis 34

4. Flash flood early warning characteristics 35 4.1. Flood early warning in Bangladesh 35 4.2. Flash flood early warning 37 4.3. Community response 47 4.4. Identified implications for effective warning communication using mobile services 48

5. Mobile services characteristics for flood early warning in Bangladesh 51 5.1. Mobile services in Bangladesh 51 5.2. Short Message Service (SMS) 52 5.3. Cell Broadcasting Service (CBS) 54 5.4. Interactive Voice Response (IVR) 55

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5.5. Identified implications for effective warning communication using mobile services 57

6. Characteristics of the flash flood communities 61 6.1. Elements at risk (exposure) 61 6.2. Past experiences 62 6.3. Preparedness and coping mechanisms 63 6.4. Risk awareness 65 6.5. Social networks and ties 66 6.6. Beliefs and motivation 68 6.7. Trust and awareness of institutions 68 6.8. Individual social characteristics 69 6.9. Occupation 69 6.10. Education 70 6.11. Environmental and social cues 70 6.12. Mobile services availability 71 6.13. Identified implications for effective warning communication using mobile services 72

7. Community requirements for warning communication using mobile services 74 7.1. Message content 74 7.2. Message style 80 7.3. Message communication mode 82 7.4. Message source and dissemination pathway 88 7.5. Identified implications for the effective warning communication using mobile service 91

8. Proposed warning communication using mobile services 93 8.1. Warning communication selection criteria 93 8.2. Discussion on the content, style, mode and dissemination pathway 95 8.3. Short term - proposed communication system 98 8.5. Medium term - proposed communication system 103 8.6. Long term - proposed communication system 105 8.7. Requirements for the implementation of the proposed communication system 107 8.8. Discussion of the limitations of the research 109

9. Conclusions and recommendations 110 9.1. Conclusions 110 9.2. Recommendations 113 9.3. Future research requirements 115

10. References 116

11. Appendices 122

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List of Figures

Figure 1.1 Kochar Haor (Sunamganj) and the Meghalaya Hills ...... 3 Figure 1.2 Conceptual framework for the study linking to the research questions (R) ...... 6 Figure 2.1 Protective Action Decision Model (Lindell and Perry, 2012) ...... 11 Figure 2.2 Behavioural response model (Molinari and Handmer, 2011) ...... 12 Figure 2.3 Identified factors affecting the social performance of a flood warning ...... 27 Figure 3.1 The link between the research questions (R) and the research tools...... 29 Figure 3.2 Field study area location map showing the research tools applied ...... 32 Figure 4.1 Dissemination pathway of warnings to the community level (ADPC 2008) ...... 36 Figure 4.2 Flash flood sources of information relied on for each community user group (% out of 10) ...... 37 Figure 4.3 Sample forecast for Kasgsha River (FFWC, 2013) ...... 38 Figure 4.4 Union Disaster Management Committees (UDMC) meetings ...... 40 Figure 4.5 Focus group discussions with women and farmer groups ...... 40 Figure 4.6 Flash flood forecast technology using QPE and QPF (RIMES, 2013) ...... 42 Figure 4.7 FFWC-RIMES dissemination to community level ...... 43 Figure 4.8 CEGIS dissemination to community level ...... 44 Figure 4.9 Caritas dissemination at community level ...... 45 Figure 4.10 VARD dissemination to community level...... 46 Figure 4.11 Response actions of women, farmer and fisher-farmer groups (% out of 10) ..... 47 Figure 4.12 The identified paths for flash flood information dissemination to the community level ...... 50 Figure 5.1 Format of mobile SMS for flag operators and households (USAID, 2008) ...... 53 Figure 5.2 Cell broadcasting service example message and explanation (DDM, 2013) ...... 54 Figure 5.3 IVR service and the options for information ...... 55 Figure 5.4 IVR use January to June 2013 (Data source: Teletalk Bd)...... 56 Figure 6.1 Boro rice crop and submergible embankment (identified elements at risk) ...... 62 Figure 6.2 Homestead increased plinth level and bamboo sheeting at the river bank (community preparedness measures) ...... 63 Figure 6.3 Results of the focus group discussion participants risk awareness (number out of 10) ...... 65 Figure 6.4 Key informant interviews with a SAAO officer and a school teacher ...... 66 Figure 6.5 Identified social networks available in the community ...... 67 Figure 7.1 Demonstration messages used in the focus group discussions and key informant interviews for SMS, CBS and IVR ...... 75 Figure 7.2 Identified lead time of interest to the community per user group (% out of 12) . 79 Figure 7.3 Identified preferences for warning communication modes per user group (% out of 12) ...... 83 Figure 7.4 IVR awareness raising poster ...... 85 Figure 7.5 Identified sources of flash flood warning information in each user group (% out of 12) ...... 89 Figure 8.1 Steps in the process of selecting the use of mobile services ...... 94 Figure 8.2 Short term proposed dissemination pathway using mobile services ...... 102 Figure 8.3 Medium term proposed dissemination pathway using mobile services ...... 104 Figure 8.4 Long term proposed dissemination pathway using mobile services ...... 106

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List of Tables

Table 2.1 Farmers perception of the savings associated with increased lead times (ADB, 2006) ...... 15 Table 3.1 Field study locations and separate FGD types ...... 33 Table 5.1 Number of subscribers per mobile phone operator in Bangladesh, June 2013 (BTRC, 2013) ...... 51 Table 5.2 Analysis of the advantages and disadvantages of SMS, Voice SMS, CBS and IVR ...... 60 Table 6.1 FGD results on the traditional coping mechanisms used by the participants ...... 64 Table 7.1 FGD and KII results on the message content in SMS, CBS and IVR ...... 77 Table 7.2 Possible response actions for the given lead time ...... 78 Table 7.3 FGD results on the message style in SMS, CBS and IVR ...... 81 Table 7.4 FGD results on the different modes SMS, CBS and IVR ...... 85 Table 8.1 Example warning symbols for flash floods for text based messages ...... 98 Table 8.2 Short term performance of selected modes ...... 100 Table 8.3 Medium term performance of selected modes ...... 103 Table 8.4 Long term performance of selected modes...... 105

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Abbreviations

ADPC Asian Disaster Management Centre AVM Automatic Voice Message BARC Bangladesh Agriculture Research Council BMD Bangladesh Meteorological Department BWDB Bangladesh Water Development Board CBO Community Based Organisation CBS Cell Broadcasting Service CDMP Comprehensive Disaster Management Programme CMAS Commercial Mass Alerting System CSR Corporate Social Responsibility DAE Department of Agricultural Extension DC District Commissioner DEWN Disaster Emergency Warning Network DMB Disaster Management Bureau DMIC Disaster Management Information Centre DRRO District Relief and Rehabilitation Officer ECMWF European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts ETSI European Telecommunication Standards Institute FFWC Flood Forecasting Warning Centre FGD Focus Group Discussion GoN Government of The Netherlands ICIMOD International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development IMD Indian Meteorological Department IVR Interactive Voice Response IWM Institute of Water Modelling JTWC Joint Typhoon Warning Center KII Key Informant Interview MoFDM Ministry of Food and Disaster Management NASA National American Space Agency NDMC National Disaster Management Committee NOAA National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration PTWC Pacific Tsunami Warning Center PVO Private Voluntary Organisation RIMES Regional Integrated Multi-Hazard Early Warning System SAAO Sub Assistant Agricultural Officer SMS Short Messaging Service SOD Standing Orders on Disaster SPARSO Bangladesh Space Research & Remote Sensing Organization UDMC Union Disaster Management Committee UISC Union Information Service Centre UNISDR United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction UNO Upazila Nirbahi Officer USAID United States Agency for International Development UzDMC Upazila Disaster Management Committee

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VARD Voluntary Association for Rural Development VDMC Village Disaster Management Committee VDRRC Village Disaster Risk Reduction Committee WARPO Water Resources Planning Organisation WDMC Ward Disaster Management Committee WMO World Meteorological Organisation

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Glossary

District District is regional administrative unit that controls several Upazilas (sub- districts).

Upazila This is the second lowest level of administrative unit in Bangladesh governed by Upazila Parishad (sub-district council). Each Upazila consists of several unions.

Union This is the lowest administrative unit in Bangladesh governed by the Union Parishad. Each union comprises villages arranged under several mauzas (sub- division of each union).

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CHAPTER 1

Introduction

This chapter first provides background information on Bangladesh, flood early warnings and warning communication. The problem that this thesis addresses is then formulated. The research questions are then presented followed by the research approach that is taken to address them.

1.1. Background

Bangladesh is identified by its mass of rivers, with over 230 national and international rivers flowing through it (FFWC, 2010). Life in riverine Bangladesh is centred on this water, it is fundamental to the way of life and an essential resource for the wellbeing of the people. Bangladesh experiences many types of hydrological and meteorological hazards connected to this water, resulting in frequent flood events. Flash floods are triggered by pre monsoon rains, particularly in the north-eastern regions while monsoon rains inundate the country’s central flat floodplains and cyclones and storm surges result in coastal flooding. The monsoon rains typically occurring from June to September are considered both a miracle and a menace for communities. After the previously dry months the monsoons contribute to the development of agriculture, fisheries, and vibrant economic activities. On the other hand, these monsoons bring with them 80% of the yearly rainfall requiring drainage through three of the largest rivers systems in the world, the Ganges, the Brahmaputra and the Meghna (FFWC, 2010). As a result Bangladesh is one of the most flood prone countries in the world. Monsoon floods arrive early in the form of flash floods, threatening the life and livelihoods in particular the agricultural crops, of the exposed communities.

Through generations, communities in Bangladesh have learned to face and live with these floods each year, but the changing climate brings new struggles and challenges. In order to protect these vulnerable communities from the impacts and aftermath of such flooding now and in the future, a comprehensive flood management strategy must be in place. Traditionally flood risk management has had a focus on the application of structural measures along with post event recovery and response, but a paradigm shift is now occurring with an increased acceptance that non structural measures, including early warning systems and community preparedness, hold just as much, if not more value in reducing flood risk. Carter (1991)

Flood warning communication using mobile services in flash flood communities of Bangladesh 1

recognises that an effective warning system is one of the most critical components in a nation’s ability to deal with disasters. It is crucial that this is achieved considering Bangladesh to be the 5th most disaster prone country in the world (UNU, 2012).

The aim of flood warnings is to reflect the benefits of flood detection and forecasting through accurate, timely and reliable communication, to reduce the impacts of floods on people (Tapsell et al., 2005). According to UNISDR (2006), the design of an early warning system depends on the integration of four key elements: risk knowledge, monitoring and warning service, dissemination and communication, and response capability. Parker and Fordham (1996) recognise that the effectiveness of the warning system improves when due attention is paid to the warning communication and warning response components of the system.

In the case of Bangladesh, the technical components of the warning system are relatively well developed, while the softer components including warning dissemination and communication have been recognised as needing more attention (Chowdhury, 2005). This is particularly the case for riverine flood forecasts where the technical tools are continually being developed, but less attention is placed on the effective communication of the forecasts. However, for flash floods the situation is quite different, a big gap still remains on both the forecasting and communication sides for an effective warning system to be in place (ADPC, 2009a; FFWC, 2013). This accurate prediction and communication of flash flood warnings would result in huge benefits in Bangladesh particularly for the agricultural sector (ADB, 2006). The strong penetration of mobile services in Bangladesh (66% of the population with annual increase of 10% (BTRC, 2013)), offers a huge opportunity for their application to improve this communication component of the warning system, in one of the poorest and most disaster prone countries in the world.

1.2. Problem formulation and motivation

Flash floods are a recurrent and hazardous phenomenon in Bangladesh particularly in the north eastern, agriculturally dominated districts, which position this agricultural sector at huge risk each year (BWDB, 2013). Within the north-eastern area lies the Haor Basin, located adjacent to the Indian (Meghalaya) hills. This area is extremely vulnerable to recurrent flash flooding in the pre monsoon season (April to May). Haors are large saucer-shaped flood plain depressions, which transform into lakes in the wet season and are utilised for fishing activities. In the dry season the haors are utilised for agriculture, mainly the cultivation of the boro rice crop, see figure 1.1.

The haors cover 19700 km2 and are home to about 20 million people, of which 29.56% are living below the lower poverty level (CEGIS, 2011). Most of the rivers in the area originate from the nearby hilly area of India. When heavy rainfall occurs in these hilly areas rushing water moves towards the haors through a number of transboundary rivers and canals causing floods. The two major rivers, Surma and Kushiara run through this haor basin and contribute to the floods. These floods may last for only a few hours and have very rapid rises in water level. Submergible embankments protect the entrances to the haors and are damaged each year from these flash floods. Large scale damages occur when the flash floods arrive early, either before or during crop harvesting time (CNRS, 2008).

Introduction 2

Figure 1.1 Kochar Haor (Sunamganj) and the Meghalaya Hills

There are many flood risk management measures that can be implemented to reduce such flood risk but an effective flood warning system is regarded as one of the best (UNISDR, 2004) offering a means of protection for the livelihoods of these vulnerable communities. Additionally, the existence or non-existence of early-warning systems and lines of communication are indicators of one’s coping and recovery capacity (Balica, 2009). There is a well functioning flood forecasting system in Bangladesh, led by the Flood Forecasting Warning Centre (FFWC), producing flood warnings for riverine floods. The framework for a national flash flood early warning system in Bangladesh is in place, embedded in the national flood early warning system under the FFWC. The capacity of the FFWC to produce flash flood forecasts, however, is very poor but its development has been recognised as high priority (ADB, 2006; ADB, 2012). This is because of the huge benefits it can hold for the agricultural sector, giving farmers the valuable time to protect their crops and livelihoods.

The flash flood early warning system has had many barriers towards its development, including the lack of data availability beyond the Indian-Bangladesh border. However, such barriers have not stopped the determination and investment of many research institutes and other stakeholders to continue to develop the system. The efforts are mainly focusing on improving the technical aspects, including the forecasting and warning generation where minimal effort is being made on how to effectively disseminate and communicate this information at the local level, which ensures the end users respond in a protective manner. This investment in the production of accurate flash flood warnings may be wasted if attention is not also placed on effectively disseminating information to the communities in a way that they use it to determine their response. The success of a flood early warning system has been argued to largely depend on this effective warning dissemination (Handmer, 2001).

Communicating warning information in way that is understood, believed and encourages protective action decision making is a challenge particularly to the rural flood vulnerable communities where limited resources are available. This final step of flood warning communication to the local level communities is a recognised challenge in Bangladesh (USAID, 2008; ADPC, 2009a; Hossain, 2009; ADB, 2012; DMB; 2013).

Flood warning communication using mobile services in flash flood communities of Bangladesh 3

This is for a number of reasons including the;

x Slow transfer of the warnings through the different layers of stakeholders before reaching the local end users x Lack of resources at the local government to effectively disseminate the warnings x Complex nature of the flood warning information in addition to the low literacy rates leading to a difficulty in understanding the warnings x Limited reach of the information to the isolated individuals and communities

Mobile services have been recognised as a valuable tool to help in addressing the challenge of warning dissemination, acting as a medium to provide simple, easily understood messages in a fast and efficient manner to the community people in Bangladesh (ADPC, 2009a). The use of mobile services is gradually being integrated with the national warning dissemination system and has been successfully utilised in a number of pilot projects throughout Bangladesh. These initiatives have used different types of mobile service technologies including ones that push information to the end user SMS and Cell Broadcasting Service (CBS) and those in which the end user pulls information Interactive Voice Response (IVR). However, the use of these mobile service techniques has focused on the dissemination of riverine and coastal flood warnings with only minor efforts in relation to flash floods. An improved communication system using mobile services aiming to efficiently deliver information from the source to the end users can enhance the end users coping and recovery capacity in the face of flash flood, thus reducing their vulnerability. Little is known about how these new technologies can meet the needs of the flash flood communities.

Risk communication, of which early warnings are one type, aims to meet two objectives when disseminating a warning message, firstly to communicate the hazards characteristics and secondly to shape the desired response of the public to that warning message (Rowan, 1991). Warning communication techniques using mobile services could prove very beneficial for the communication of flash flood early warning information but it is important that they are not just automatically transferred and used. It cannot be assumed that the current methods of using mobile services will be equally useful in flash flood communities. A people centred approach is being recognised as a fundamental aspect to an effective warning system (UNISDR, 2006). A focus on the end users should be at the core of understanding how to make any adjustments. It is important that the use of such mobile services technologies is investigated in the context of flash flood warnings to see how they can be adapted and improved to meet the needs of the end users, shaping their desired response.

This study aims to understand how to do this effectively in the flash flood regions of Bangladesh using mobile services. By understanding the information communities want in flash flood warning messages and how they want to receive it, an effective warning communication system, using mobile services, can be developed. This is one, which performs in terms of achieving effective communication leading to protective response actions being taken, thereby improving the impact the warning has on the end users. In this study, this is termed the ‘social performance’ and in order to achieve this, the current characteristics of the warning, mobile services and of the flash flood community must be addressed in combination with the needs of the community for these warning and mobile services characteristics.

Introduction 4

1.3. Research questions

The main research question of this study is:

“How can mobile services be used to improve the social performance of warning communication to flash flood communities in Bangladesh?”

More specifically this entails recognising how the current practice of warning communication using mobile services in Bangladesh can be applied to the current flash flood early warning system, in a way that reflects the needs of the end users.

The following sub-research questions support the answering of the main research question and are answered for a case study in the flash flood prone north-eastern district of Sunamganj, Bangladesh.

1. What are the factors expected to affect the social performance of warning communication using mobile services?

2. What are the characteristics of the current flash flood early warning system from the source to the end user in Bangladesh?

3. What are the characteristics of mobile services currently being used for warning communication in Bangladesh?

4. What are the characteristics of the flash flood community that can influence warning communication using mobile services?

5. What are the community needs (different user groups) for flash flood warnings and communication using mobile services?

Flood warning communication using mobile services in flash flood communities of Bangladesh 5

1.4. Research approach

The first step of the study involves a literature review to identify the factors that are expected to influence the social performance of the flood warning using mobile services. This leads to answering research question 1 and is presented in Chapter 2. These factors are grouped into warning, mobile services and community characteristics. These form a conceptual framework which is applied to answer the remaining research questions, see figure 1.2.

Figure 1.2 Conceptual framework for the study linking to the research questions (R)

Introduction 6

The first step in applying these characteristics is to assess the current flash flood warning system, from the sources to the end users, in the selected study areas. This is done to understand the actual warning characteristics and the possible implications of these on the social performance. This leads to answering research question 2 and is presented in Chapter 4.

Secondly, the mobile services characteristics currently being used for warning dissemination in Bangladesh are assessed. The advantages and disadvantages, and the possible implications of these on the social performance are addressed. This leads to answering research question 3 and is presented in Chapter 5.

The third step is to address the community characteristics. This is done by assessing the characteristics of flash flood communities in the selected study areas and addressing the possible implications of these for warning communication using mobile services. This leads to answering research question 4 and is presented in Chapter 6.

The fourth step involves addressing the overlapping community characteristics with the warning and mobile services characteristics. This entails assessing the requirements of the communities for flood warnings and communication using mobile services. Chapter 7 presents these results leading to the answering of research question 5.

The fifth step involves combining the information from the previous four steps to determine the best way to use mobile services for flash floods communication, to enhance the social performance. The types of mobile services are assessed for the short, medium and long term. The output of this chapter leads to answering the overall research question and is presented in Chapter 8. The conclusions and recommendations are presented in Chapter 9.

1.5. Innovation and practical value

The United Nations Hyogo Framework for Action 2005-2015, stresses the importance of developing warning systems that are “people-centred, in particular systems whose warnings are timely and understandable to those at risk, which take into account the demographic, gender, cultural and livelihood characteristics of the target audiences, including guidance on how to act upon warnings, and that support effective operations by disaster managers and other decision-makers”.

This study aims to highlight the best potential use of mobile services for warning communication through focusing on the needs of the end users, in Bangladesh. This information will benefit any interested persons for the further development of an early warning dissemination and communication process as part of an effective early warning system. A new and improved approach to using mobile services as a communication tool is proposed for early warnings in Bangladesh for application in flash flood regions with scope for application in other areas.

Flood warning communication using mobile services in flash flood communities of Bangladesh 7

CHAPTER 2

Warning communication and response using mobile services

This chapter discusses the factors found in literature that theoretically could affect how warning information is communicated and responded to using mobile services, thus influencing the social performance. The literature on the social performance of flood warning technologies, flood response decision-making and vulnerability is discussed. Thereafter, the identified factors are compiled into those that reflect the warning, mobile services and communities characteristics and are discussed in detail. This chapter answers research question 1.

2.1. Social performance

2.1.1. Social performance of warning technologies (Tapsell et al., 2005)

The concept of ‘social performance’ is used by Tapsell et al. (2005) to describe the factors influencing the effectiveness of flood warning dissemination and communication technologies. This is defined as being a complex relationship, dependent upon four interconnected factors including the selected flood warning technology, the social characteristics of warning recipients, the local barriers to communication (circumstances of the community/individual) and time, which affect the social performance of the flood warning communication technology.

According to the model of social performance of Tapsell et al. (2005) the recipient characteristics are a function of receptiveness of the end users, to the technologies and are dependent upon their access to and willingness to adopt and use the technology. The accessibility is expected to depend on the cost of the technology, the income class, educational level, age and ability of the individual, along with the use of the technology or encouragement of use, by social networks. The willingness to adopt and use the technology is dependent on the awareness of the existence of the technology, flood risk perception, regency and severity of the flooding, access to good information, degree of disruption associated with the use of the technology, perceived intrusiveness of the technology, perceived benefits of use, reputation of the agency and the technology, cost of using the technology, experience over time with the technology, access to and availability of alternative warning

Warning communication and response using mobile services 8

communication means, social networks (community action groups, family, neighbours) and fear of the new technology. The barriers to communication are additional local factors affecting the social performance include aspects such as the catchment characteristics, the composition and density of the population, local structures of governance, the existence of local agents of change or opinion leaders and the level of provision of ICT. The variable of time is additionally included as over time ones ability to learn, accept and use a certain technology can increase or decreases.

In the context of this research the social performance refers to improving the impact that the warning will have on the end users by effectively communicating the message to them using mobile services, which initiates them to actively respond to the message. This differs in the use of the term by Tapsell et al. (2005) as this study is more specifically focused on mobile services and when considering the factors that influences this, additional factors relating to those that affect flood response decisions, those relating to mobile services and vulnerability are included.

2.1.2. Vulnerability

Tapsell et al. (2010) identifies that the application of social vulnerability to improving risk communication instruments is a gap in current research and it is accepted that flood risk information should be tailored to the vulnerable members of the public (Twigger-Ross et al., 2009; Thrush et al., 2005).

There are many ways to look at vulnerability. Cutter (1996) uses the concept of place vulnerability, treating vulnerability as an interaction between biophysical and social vulnerability, which can be considered community vulnerability in this case. Biophysical vulnerability is a function of the exposure of the elements at risk to given flood depths and velocities. Blaikie et al. (1994) defines social vulnerability as “the characteristics of a person or group and their situation that influences their capacity to anticipate, cope with, resist and recover from the impact of a natural hazard”. Balica et al. (2009) expresses vulnerability as “the extent to which a system is susceptible to floods due to exposure, a perturbation, in conjunction with its capacity/incapacity to be resilient, to cope, recover or adapt” where the vulnerability increases with an increase in exposure to a hazard and susceptibility (Messner & Meyer 2006). UNISDR (2004) defines vulnerability as the conditions determined by “physical, social, economic, and environmental factors or processes, which increase the susceptibility of a community to the impact of hazards”. Anderson and Woodrow (1998) categorises vulnerability into three areas, the physical/material vulnerability (economic factors), social/organizational vulnerability (conflicts) and attitudinal/motivational vulnerability (confidence in their ability to affect change).

In order to use this concept of vulnerability in increasing the social performance of the warning using mobile services, a number of indicators for vulnerability in the community and their capacity to recover from a given risk were identified. These include past experiences, the elements at risk (exposure), physical quality of infrastructure, house type, risk awareness, education, governance/organizational structures/institutional mechanisms, age, ethnic minorities, gender, special needs, access to credit/loans, income source/occupation, social networks (family/relatives/neighbours), cultural beliefs, trust in local authorities (institutions)

Flood warning communication using mobile services in flash flood communities of Bangladesh 9

and access to information (Anderson and Woodrow, 1998; Balica et al., 2009; Blaike et al., 1994). These identified indicators relate to the communities characteristics where these can also be used to identify how to improve the communication and enhance the social performance of the warning using mobile services.

2.1.3. Flood response decision making

In addition to the factors affecting the social performance of a flood warning technology identified by Tapsell et al. (2005) there are a number of factors presented in the literature that influence ones decision making and behavioural response to a warning. Lindell and Perry’s (2012) Protective Action Decision Model (PADM), presents this process beginning with the input of decision influencing factors including environmental and social cues, information source, information channel, warning message characteristics, and the receiver’s characteristics (physical abilities (e.g., strength, vision), cognitive abilities, economic and social resources), see figure 2.1. Similarly, Mileti and Sorensen (1990) recognises these factors as inputs to their warning response model but instead divide them as receiver factors (environmental cues, social setting, social ties, socio demographics, psychological characteristics and pre warning perceptions) and warning factors (source, message consistency, clarity, message certainty, information sufficiency, guidance, warning frequency, risk location information, and channel of communication). These factors are combined with the factors affecting the social performance and vulnerability and used as inputs to the community, warning and mobile services characteristics, which are discussed further in sections 2.2, 2.3 and 2.4.

In both models (Mileti and Sorensen, 1990 and Lindell and Perry, 2012) a social psychological process for protective action decision-making is initiated upon receipt of a warning and the factors discussed can influence it at different stages. It is this psychological process that influences the decision making process and hence the social performance of the warning. The framework of the PADM, is shown in figure 2.1 (Lindell and Perry, 2012), where this psychological process begins with a pre-decision process including, exposure (if the information is received), attention (if it is heeded) and comprehension (if it is understood). Mileti and Sorensen (1990) characterise these influences in the pre-decision stage as, hearing the warning and understanding it. Similarly, Molinari and Handmer (2011) take these as whether the warning (from an official or unofficial source) is first noticed or not, and subsequently understood or not, as shown in figure 2.2. Not all people are able to notice a warning (Parker et al., 2009). This can be dependent on unavailability or inability of people to receive the warnings or choosing to ignore the message. A lack of understanding can result from the technical content of the message (Handmer and Ord, 1986), lack of understanding of the hazard to which the warning is addressing (Mileti, 1995) and a lack of education and preparation on how to understand such warnings. The presence of social and environmental cues, the information channel used and the message characteristics influence these pre- decisional processes. These aspects discussed would also hold for the communication of early warnings through mobile services.

The psychological process of the PADM (Lindell and Perry, 2012) continues with the formulation of the individual’s three perceptions used to assess the information and choose a response. Firstly, the threat perception, i.e. the danger one associates with the flood, is

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influenced by past experiences with such threats and past beliefs about the hazard forming a personal assessment of the risk. Secondly, the perception of alternative protective actions is formulated and influenced by attributes such as self efficacy; the belief in ones ability to execute an action to successfully reduce their vulnerability, and response efficacy; one’s belief in the effectiveness of mitigating the threat by executing that action (Grothmann and Reusswig, 2006). Additionally resource related attributes such as knowledge; skill and time requirements and required cooperation with others affect protective action perception (Lindell and Perry, 2004). Thirdly, the perceptions of social stakeholders such as the government, media and households, can have power over ones decision to take protective action based on their expertise, trustworthiness and protection responsibility (Lindell and Perry, 2012). These three perceptions provide the base for the protective action decision-making process and in combination with situational facilitators and impediments produce a behavioural response which can be either protective action, information searching or by coping focusing on their emotions e.g. panic (Lindell and Perry, 2004).

In both the Mileti and Sorensen’s (1990) model and Molinari and Handmer’s (2011) framework a different approach is taken to account for the socio psychological process. Once the warning is heard and understood, the next step is whether it is believed or trusted. This is dependent on the information source, which must be credible and reliable, as low accuracy and reliability of warnings may easily cause a passive early warning response (Mileti, 1995). Another step in the process is whether or not the threat or risk applies to the individual, if it is personalised or not. If the warning is not perceived to affect them, and will not affect their area then they are likely to ignore it (Mileti, 1995). Warning confirmation represents another step in the process before deciding on how to respond to the warning (Mileti, 1995; Drabek, 2000; Molinari and Handmer, 2012).

To use this process for this research it can be adapted and simplified to assess which mode of communication (using mobile services) can achieve the best in terms of improving the social performance (effective communication and response). Four criteria can be used which are based on the modes ability to communicate a warning message that is received, paid attention to, understood and personalised for the end user.

Figure 2.1 Protective Action Decision Model (Lindell and Perry, 2012)

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Figure 2.2 Behavioural response model (Molinari and Handmer, 2011)

2.2. Characteristics of the warning

When communicating a warning using mobile services the scope cannot be limited to choosing the correct communication technology to meet the needs of the end user. It must also consider the other characteristics of a warning, including the warning message source and dissemination pathway, message content, and message style that lead to a user-friendly message. A warning should aim to be from a credible source, be informative and persuasive while being clearly understood by those receiving it. This is achieved through explaining what is happening and what will happen, where, the affect it will have on the warning recipient, combined with information on how to respond (Commonwealth of Australia, 2009). The following is a compilation of the characteristics of the warning that are expected to play a role in the social performance of the waning using mobile services.

2.2.1. Warning source and dissemination pathway

The source of the warning will have an impact on trust and belief in the warning and has been shown to be a vital aspect in successful risk messages (Mielti, 1995; Parker et al., 2007; Lindell and Perry, 2004). Warnings should be disseminated by familiar, trusted and respected individuals, in order for the recipients to believe and react to the information. Local religious leaders such as the Imam in Bangladesh (USAID, 2008) or the local pastor in the case of New Orleans (Eisenman et al., 2007) have been shown to hold greater value and trust to disseminate hazard information. However, a lack of trust often exists between authorities and the public (Basher, 2006; Parker et al., 2009). Warnings have also been considered more credible if the same message comes from a variety of sources (Shah et al., 2012).

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Results from studies in Bangladesh found that communities expected early warnings to be disseminated though the help of local volunteers including the Imam of the local mosque and teachers, which are locally, respected individuals (ADPC, 2009a). In the areas exposed to regular monsoon floods, it was found that greater involvement through Union Parishad, fisheries department, dealers, mosque, hat bazaar committees, school teachers and health workers were sought for more effective early warning dissemination (ADPC, 2009a). Additionally, Lumbroso and von Christierson (2009) recommend the dissemination of personal warning messages through direct links with local agencies such as residents associations, community centres, schools, health centres, and faith groups etc., reaching a large and diverse range of people. This way of disseminating can allow a stronger belief and trust associated with the information provided in the message leading to a better response and hence a potentially more effective social performance.

A warning message can be from a formal institution, informal (provided by indigenous knowledge) or a mix. A study by ADPC (2009a) found that 40% of riverine communities surveyed relied heavily on indigenous knowledge of flood warnings i.e. the physical environmental cues such as wind patterns and insect movement, in combination with official warnings to make decisions on their response. Howell (2003) recommends integrating this indigenous knowledge to compliment scientific knowledge in a warning system.

2.2.2. Warning communication mode

The mode of communication used to disseminate the warning can have an impact on the receipt, understanding, belief and response of the end users (Lindell and Perry, 2004; Mielti, 1995). There are many possible methods to communicate warnings. The National Steering Committee on Public Warning and Information (2003) splits these into audible (e.g. miking, loudhailers, sirens), verbal (e.g. in person visits), mass communication (e.g. TV, radio, Internet, newspapers), and telecommunication (e.g. fax, phone calls, dial out systems, email, SMS, CBS, IVR) methods. These differ in that some allow for the information to be recorded and therefore can be examined at another time e.g. SMS, newspaper whereas some are given momentarily e.g. phone calls. Additionally, these can target the population in a more general way (e.g. miking, TV) or can be more specific for an individual (e.g. SMS). These methods should be widely understood by the at-risk public (Fielding et al., 2007). Modes of communication including radio, microphones, megaphones, flags, billboards and cell phone communication have proven successful to disseminate warning information at the community level in Bangladesh (e.g. USAID, 2008; ADPC, 2008).

Different methods can prove more successful in different situations and under different circumstances. Specific methods can vary in the time it takes for their dissemination and the amount of people it can reach. For example mobile phone can be a much quicker communication tool than door to door visits and the media has the ability to reach large volumes of people. However, Quarantelli (1990) showed that the media tends to alert people that there is a problem rather than initiating people to respond and that more personal methods are more likely to be believed. Modern ways of communicating engage in social media sites such as Twitter for disaster communication. These methods can reach large volumes of people, when available on mobile phones and can utilise video and image functions along with text functions. These proved as important sources of information during a flash flood of

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2010 in San Francisco (Stanley et al., 2011). However, Acar and Muraki (2011) found that unreliable retweets on Twitter posed a big problem for the users during the aftermath of the Great Tohoku earthquake in Japan. The further use of mobile services as a warning communication tool is further discussed in detail in section 2.3 on mobile service characteristics.

2.2.3. Warning message content

A report published by the Commonwealth of Australia (2009) recommends that in particular for flash floods, warning messages should inform the end users of the rain that has already fallen, the potential for further rain, areas at greatest risk and how people should respond. The level of detail in the message is found to be directly related its belief, where more general messages tend to be ignored (Quarantelli, 1990). Martini and De Roo (2007) recommends that only a few key points are presented in a warning message whereas Mileti and Sorenson’s (1990) highlights that when messages are too short this can lead to the end users searching for information from potentially inaccurate sources (neighbours and friends). The warning message should be consistent with information from other sources and be regularly updated to reflect the current conditions (Mileti, 1995). The warning recipients should not be considered as one homogenous group where the warning message is personalised to the specific needs of those receiving them. The messages in the UK’s Flood Warnings Direct service were criticised as being “one size fits all” by some recipients and argued to contain insufficient information for different end users to respond effectively (Twigger-Ross et al., 2009). Through a review of the literature the following components are deemed important as potential inputs for a warning message.

Representation of the hazard Warnings need to be specific about the nature of the threat and should be represented in a way that is understood by the recipient. Information on the hazard can be provided by presenting the expected water level rise or fall in the river, the expected inundation depth, real time rainfall and forecasted rainfall in the specific areas. The formal information can be too complex and difficult to interpret for many people. The information is not personal enough to them, failing to represent the potential impacts at their locality (USAID, 2008; ADPC, 2009a). For this reason, warning information is often provided with reference to a local marker. This was done in a pilot study (USAID, 2008) where a local reference point was used to represent the increase or decrease of the water at a local river. This was supplemented by a flag system with different colours representing an increase or decrease in the rivers water level. Hazard information on the flood duration and local rainfall forecast is important especially for farmers and fishers, (USAID, 2008; ADPC, 2009b). This information was in demand from the communities in the riverine flood prone area (USAID, 2008).

It is not enough to represent the hazard in a warning message; the severity of this hazard also needs to be expressed (Lindell and Perry, 2004). The severity of this hazard should be represented in a way that persuades and motivates people to react to it. However, there must be a balance between doing this and causing panic (Commonwealth of Australia, 2009). Warnings are often ignored completely because the hazard represented in the message fails to gain the attention of the end user (Pfister, 2002). The severity of the hazard could for example be represented on a colour coded reference point, based on danger levels (ADPC, 2009b). The

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warning message corresponding to “moderate”, “very”, and “extremely” dangerous conditions should be clear and understandable for the end user (ADB, 2006).

Lead time availability The warning message should include the expected amount of time the recipients have before the arrival of the hazard (mitigation time), in order for them to take appropriate preparatory actions to reduce their potential damages. Carsell et al. (2004) defines the mitigation time as the time between when the response begins and the threshold for that threat is exceeded while defining the lead time as the time between when the is the threat is recognised (forecasted) and the threshold for that threat is exceeded. This time can be maximised by minimising the time needed to produce a forecast and a warning, and the time to disseminate that warning to the end user. The reliability of the information decreases with increasing lead times because it relies on more on the prediction of forecasted rainfall and thus the uncertainty increases (Werner et al., 2005). The optimal lead time for the end user is a function of both their cost- loss ratio and the uncertainty of the forecast, where the longest lead time will not necessary give the most benefits (Verkade and Werner, 2011). See table 2.1 for the perceived savings by farmers, in receiving early warnings with increased lead times (ADB, 2006). It can be seen that the benefits continue to increase with increasing lead times, allowing them to carry out more effective response actions up to 7days, however, the uncertainty associated with this improved lead time is not considered.

Table 2.1 Farmers perception of the savings associated with increased lead times (ADB, 2006)

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Guidance or preparatory information Specifying guidance through achievable actions to deal with the risk is an important element of a warning message. The message should clearly state what actions the end user should take to prepare and how much time they have to do this (Lindell and Perry, 2004) in the most immediate and obvious way as possible (Shaw et al., 2005; Twigger-Ross et al., 2009). With regards to the 2007 flood in Bangladesh, Shah et al. (2012) found that 90% of those who received advice on protective actions used this advice to prepare themselves for the flood. Additionally a lack of awareness of what do in response to a warning, not only constrains an effective response, but also can lead to an increase in stress and anxiety (Fielding et al, 2007). Recommendations from Commonwealth of Australia (2009) propose that guidance in warnings should state what to do rather than what not to do, promote action rather than inaction and encourage sociability among the community. It should also contain information on what the end users should be prepared to do even if they decide not to take action straight away. The guidance information should also provide information on where to find more information or get extra help. Studies into the available early warnings at household level in riverine areas of Bangladesh found that the end uses requested having this guidance information in the warning (USAID, 2008; ADPC, 2009a; Hossain, 2009).

Accuracy The information in the message should be as accurate as possible and could include the extent to which the message content is correct to ensure people consider this level of accuracy before deciding on a response. Research suggests that words like ‘may’ probably’ and ‘likely’ can be used to explain the potential impacts of the event (Commonwealth of Australia, 2009). It is better to include these words rather than being silent about where the event will cause damage or not expressing the uncertainty of the event. It is important to prepare the community for the possibility that the information could be wrong and if it is wrong it should be explained to the community why it was wrong. Also there is a need to get feedback from the community on the accuracy of the information provided to build understanding and trust, in the disseminating agency. However it is a debated issue on whether or not to provide information on uncertainty and probability in a warning message. It is frequently reported that individuals cannot comprehend such information and its provision will only lead to confusion (Werner et al., 2005; Parker et al., 2009).

2.2.4. Message Style

The language used in a warning message can be critical to ones understanding and response. The message content should be brief, ordered, and clear to ensure it is understandable while conveying a suitable sense of urgency (Fielding et al., 2007; Commonwealth of Australia, 2009). Complex technical language of a message can result in misunderstanding and should be avoided (Handmer and Ord, 1986; ADPC, 2009a). USAID (2008) used simple symbols rather than numbers in the warning messages so the illiterate members of the community could understand them upon training. Language that conveys the immediacy of a situation should be used which is vivid enough to motivate or arouse the end users to react; however, it is important to strike a balance between motivational and frightening words (Commonwealth of Australia, 2009). Some sources support avoidance of threatening words, preferring instead to use positive terms (Martini and De Roo, 2007). The misinterpretation of words from the intended meaning can inflict the wrong behaviour, for example, the words ‘move yourself’ have been interpreted as ‘evacuate’ (Twigger-Ross et al., 2009).

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2.3. Characteristics of mobile services

Mobile services can affect the behavioural response and decision making process by improving or worsening one’s ability to receive, pay attention to, understand and perceive the threat associated with the message. The characteristics identified are accessibility, accessibility to end users information, targeted information, awareness, limitations on message size and content, two way communication, message size and content, message frequency, multiple communication channels, associated costs and infrastructure requirements. This sub chapter first provides an overview of mobile services for flood early warning and then why the different characteristics of mobile services are expected to influence the social performance of the warning is discussed.

2.3.1. Overview of mobile services for flood early warning

Aside from mobile services there are many possible channels to disseminate early warnings to the public and these channels play an important role in shaping the warning response (Mileti, 1995). Disseminating information though the electronic media, accessible through the Internet, television, and radio is common practice across the globe but these channels are not always accessible to everyone. Solutions vary from simple approaches commonly used in rural developing areas, such as flag systems, information displays in newspapers and billboards in marketplaces, sirens and verbal communication. All channels have limitations in the number of people that they reach and therefore an effectively disseminated warning will use a combination of communication channels to ensure a wide reach in a short time.

Mobile services can be used in many ways to disseminate early warning and disaster information to end-users. These technologies can be differentiated into those that allow information to be pushed to the receiver, pulled by the receiver upon demand, or both. The two main competitors for pushing warning or alert information in an emergency are Short Messaging Service (SMS) and Cell Broadcasting Service (CBS). Interactive Voice Response (IVR) services are information pull based, where users can query information when requested through a specific phone number and dialling options. These channels can also differ in that some are opt-in systems (e.g. SMS, IVR) whereby users subscribe to the service or request the information and others opt-out (e.g. CBS) whereby users are automatically subscribed and need to consciously opt-out if they do not want to receive the messages (Stanley et al., 2011).

The most familiar product of mobile services is the SMS and is being used to disseminate warning information across many nations in combination with IVR services, such as the UK as part of their national flood warning service, Flood Warnings Direct (FWD). The use of cell broadcasting services as national alert systems is becoming increasingly popular across the globe. CBS is being used through NL-Alert system in the Netherlands (Wiersma et al., 2008) and CMAS in the US (Stanley et al., 2011) where CBS is currently taking a considerable lead over SMS (Wiersma et al. 2008; GSMA, 2013). The reason for this popularity is that, cell broadcasting offers a timely and efficient means of pushing warning information to large groups over traditional SMS services, (GSMA, 2013). In Bangladesh these three mobile service technologies, SMS, CBS and IVR are being used (USAID, 2008; FFWC, 2013). These different technologies are discussed further through each of the mobile services characteristics in the following sections.

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2.3.2. Accessibility to end users

The percentage of people who receive a warning is unlikely to exceed more than 40% (Thieken et al., 2005; Tunstall et al., 2006). If the end users do not receive the warning then it will ultimately result in a lack of response to the message. Mobile services offer an additional way to provide urgent warning information directly to the end users handset with information on the impending hazard and risk it poses. Mobile phones are generally kept close at hand allowing the users to be reached in a number of different situations. However, users may not always have their mobile devices switched on and charged ready to receive warning messages.

In terms of the ability of the end user to receive a message, SMS warnings are compatible with all handsets and do not require any adjustments to receive the warning messages. This is unlike CBS, where the service typically needs to be enabled by the user or the user needs to purchase a new handset. The process to do this can also change for different types of handset (ESTI, 2006). This results in exposing a lower amount of people to the alert. This is seen in the NL-Alert CBS, which only works on approximately half of all mobile phones in the Netherlands, thus requiring increased awareness of the public to make their mobile phones compatible with the service (GoN, 2013). IVR service requires the audience to make the effort to call the service and the willingness to do this should be understood. The UK’s national flood warning dissemination service uses IVR dial and listen service and research found that only 30% of residents interviewed used the service (Parker et al., 2007). The ‘hassle factor’ is therefore high if you have to make your phone compatible for CBS, sign up to get an SMS or decide to make the call for IVR which was identified by Tapsell et al. (2005) as an important factor influencing ones willingness to adopt to the technology. Another limitation to accessibility of end user to the warning messages occurs when agreements are made with particular mobile phone operators for warning dissemination only to their customers (e.g. USAID, 2008).

SMS warnings are sent from point to point directly to each number individually stored in the database, a timely process causing congestion in the signalling radio channels (ESTI, 2006). This makes it difficult to disseminate to a large group of receivers in a reasonable amount of time. CBS is simultaneously disseminated to each cell phone and can be used even when the network for mobile phones is overloaded (GSMA, 2013). The cell broadcast reaches each active cell phone within the range of the cellular tower reducing the network capacity required for message delivery compared to sending messages to each subscriber using SMS (Stanley et al., 2012). Congestion in CBS is unlikely because the broadcasts are sent on dedicated channels separate from those used for other messages and calls. This is a significant advantage of the system as during crisis situations networks can become damaged and overloaded. For these reasons cell broadcasts offer a faster and more reliable mode of warning dissemination during an emergency. Disaster Emergency Warning Network (DEWN), Sir Lanka uses a combination of SMS for directed messages and cell broadcast for mass alerts to reach as many users as possible (GSMA, 2013).

2.3.3. Accessibility to users information

In order to disseminate to the mobile devices using SMS to targeted end users there is a requirement to collect, input, store and maintain the target receiver’s pre-registered numbers

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in a database (ETSI, 2006). This is a time consuming and costly process to support before an emergency. Protecting the privacy of this information is another challenge. When disseminating information using CBS it is not necessary to compile all the target phone numbers in a database, thus giving users more privacy. It is faster and more cost effective as a result. For IVR the end user is in control of receiving the information, as it is demand based and therefore does not pose any privacy or storage problems.

2.3.4. Targeted information

The public should not be seen as one homogenous group of people but should be distinguished by sufficiently targeting their individual demands (Meissen and Voisard, 2008). There is a consensus that utilising more specific or personalised warnings can lead to greater belief in the message, more effective response and increased economic benefits (Drabek, 2000; Mileti, 1995; UNISDR 2006; Fielding et al., 2007; Parker et al., 2009; Handmer, 2001). In order to ensure that early warning messages only target those at risk, they should be geographically specific (UNISDR, 2006). SMS messages are sent from point to point i.e. from source to the subscribed receivers and can only be location or geographically specific based on information such as address provided by the user at the time of subscription. This can result in confusing messages being received if the user is not in their specified location. A CBS allows messages to be broadcast to all mobile stations in a given country, a selected group of geographic locations or to a particular cell area (ETSI, 2006). In this way everyone in a specific geographic area can be alerted of an upcoming hazard rather than those subscribed as living in that area. In IVR services such Floodline, part of Flood Warnings Direct in the UK, a quick dial code is used to go straight to the relevant flood messages for a specific area, allowing the user to get targeted information. Additional efforts are being made in the meteorological early warning system WIND to integrate a context aware system capable of targeting specific user groups such as those with requiring special audio/visual messages or language preferences (Meissen and Voisard 2008).

2.3.5. Awareness In order to use mobile services effectively it is important to increase the awareness of users to accept and understand the messages (Wiersma et al., 2008; USAID 2008). The community must be willing to adapt and use the new technology and trust the information provided by it before it can be successfully used and responded to. This can be improved with ones experience over time with the technology (Tapsell et al., 2005). Particular individuals within the community such as change agents and opinion leaders were identified by Rogers (1995) to play an important role in end users adaptation and the use of new technologies. It is also important that those disseminating the information, either directly from governmental organisations or NGOs are aware of how to effectively use mobile services to inform those at risk and prepare them on how to interpret the information. This is particularly important for IVR service and CBS that are relatively upcoming technologies when compared to SMS and the end users may not even be aware of existence of the technology. Additionally, one’s awareness of how to interpret the content of the message is vital regardless of the mode. The FWD service in the UK requires the end users to sign up in order to get automatic messages and it was reported by Twigger-Ross et al. (2009) that approximately 70% of those who could sign up for FWD service did not. Therefore the reach of the service limited to those who are motivated to sign up. This is the case for SMS where the end users must be aware to sign up

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to get the messages. This can put considerable constraints on the effectiveness of disseminated information making it crucial to invest time and money into increasing the awareness and education on the use of mobile services in such a way.

2.3.6. Limitations on message size and content

The information contained in a warning message disseminated through mobile services can be more limited than other dissemination modes like radio, television and newspapers. This is because of the restricted number of characters available in a single message for text based services. A standard message can contain between 90 and 140 characters when disseminated though SMS or CBS message (ESTI, 2006). For this reason the message is limited to only include the most urgent, impending information and should be designed to limit the amount of non-important words in the message. Terpstra and Vreugdenhil (2011) suggest developing message templates before the event to prevent the message lacking important elements and content. For example a clear and concise, mobile phone text message warning for the Flood Warning Communicator is limited to the following:

“Flood Alert! Extremely high water at HvHolland (code orange). Follow news! See www.crisis.nl” (Terpstra and Vreugdenhil, 2011)

The message states the severity of the threat and giving an additional source of information to satisfy the information needs of the recipient. The message format of a CMAS (CBS in the USA) message includes the geographical area affected, the recommended action, an expiration time, sending agency which is based on the standard alert messaging format (Stanley et al., 2011), see example below (Honker, 2012).

“Flash flood warning in this area until 8:30pm EDT. Avoid flooded areas. Check local media – NWS”

Although Honker (2012) found that the alerts did succeed in grabbing the attention of the users, some felt the reason behind the alert (flash flooding) was not severe enough. IVR services have the advantage in that they can contain a lot more information in the warning message and this information is provided through speech, tending the needs of the literate and blind. Additionally it is expected that if there is good and sufficient information being provided through the service then this will increase the willingness to adopt and use the technology (Tapsell et al., 2005) and hence utilise it for their response.

An early warning SMS is received in the same way as a normal SMS from a regular source unlike the CBS which has the capabilities to automatically pop up on the users screen, in the subscribers preferred language with a distinctive ringtone, to draw attention to the alert (Stanley et al., 2011). The Disaster Emergency Warning Network (DEWN) in Sri Lanka uses CBS messages delivered in three local languages (GSMA, 2013). These add to the ability of the warning message to be paid attention to and understood.

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2.3.8. Two way communication

An effective warning communication system should be two-way and interactive to allow users to verify the information (UNISDR, 2006). People commonly seek information once they are aware that flooding is a possibility (Parker et al., 2009). Before during and after a hazardous event there are possibilities for using mobile services for two-way communication (Coyle, 2005). Disaster management authorities can circulate information instantly such as shelter locations, the availability of relief and information on health hazards such as disease breakouts. Additionally those affected could use mobile services send information to the authorities on their needs such as rescue and relief allowing post disaster efforts to run smoother (Coyle, 2005).

For recipients of the message through SMS it is possible to respond directly to the sender to gain further information, hence SMS can offer a two-way communication channel. In comparison, CBS are only used for one-way communication between the source and the user. There are no opportunities for the user to call back and seek further information. This can also be seen as an advantage for CBS as it prevents the emergency centres becoming overwhelmed with calls. According to (ESTI, 2006) there are also possibilities for CBS to connect with other alerting devices such as radios and sirens. The FWD service in the UK is a two-way information structure where end users can gain discussions with telephone operators and flood wardens, together with the opportunity to find further information online (FWD, 2013).

2.3.9. Message frequency

It is important that continued and updated information is provided to the end users. When SMS is used to disseminate warnings there is no built in repetition of the message once sent by the operators unlike CBS where the broadcasts have the potential to be repeatedly sent (ESTI, 2006). This frequency is important because some recipients demand repeated or updated messages even when there is little or no change in the information (Mileti, 1995). In an emergency situation the clarification of a warning by repeating it can lead to a greater number of people hearing the message, understanding it and reacting to it. With IVR services, the recipient can choose to obtain the information as often as required however this does need to be initiated by them. It is additionally important that updated information is provided through the services. In the case of Floodline service in the UK, the messages additionally contain the time that the updated information is given.

2.3.10. Multiple communication channels

The receipt of multiple sources of consistent warning information has been found to increase the end user’s confidence and trust in that information (Shah et al., 2012). For this reason mobile services can offer a source of information to those at risk that can be clarified if necessary through other modes such as radio, television and word of mouth. Mobile services offer a new component that must be integrated into the overall dissemination system. For example the alerting system in The Netherlands uses mobile services but maintains the use of its traditional siren system (Wiersma et al., 2008). Additionally, it is important that the end users have access to alternative communication channels, in the case of the failure of the mobile disseminating system due to electricity cuts or infrastructure damage.

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2.3.11. Cost of the services

There are many costs associated with using the technology of mobile services, which can influence whether they are adapted as a warning dissemination tool. Mobile phone operating companies need to invest in the physical communication infrastructure like cell towers in order to provide a reliable and fast service. Organisations disseminating the information such as governments and disaster management agencies need to invest in additional training and equipment in order to effectively disseminate this information. The end users need to maintain a mobile phone and pay for this. The partnership between these public and private stakeholders has been completed where private mobile phone operators disseminate messages through mobile services to the end users for free through their corporate social responsibility (CSR) policies (e.g. USAID, 2008). Such partnerships can ensure the sustainability of the system by sharing the long term operational and maintenance costs.

2.3.12. Infrastructure requirements

The effective use of mobile services relies heavily on the communication infrastructures in place. First and foremost, in order to disseminate to those at risk using mobile services there must be good network coverage, where all users have enough reception to receive the warnings. During disasters this communication infrastructure is put under huge pressure and the failure of communication infrastructures is most likely in the case of disasters (Townsend and Moss, 2005). Network congestion is a huge problem, as the usage of mobile phones spirals in attempts to seek further information during an event (Mileti and Sorensen, 1990). The hazards themselves, be they floods or storms can physically damage these vital infrastructures causing the collapse of telephone lines and towers. This is recognised as a problem in crisis events and was particularly evident during Hurricane Katrina in 2005, where 3 million phone lines collapsed over the affected area, in addition to 1,500 incapacitated telephone towers resulting in chaos for crisis communication (Moran, 2005).

Maintaining power to phones and stations is another challenge during a crisis situation. It is crucial that electricity supply is maintained to support the communication infrastructure in order disseminate the urgent message through mobile services. Aside from crisis situations, it is fundamental that there is an available electricity supply. In many countries this access to electricity is not as standard as in others, in developing countries such as Bangladesh approximately only 50% of the country has access to electricity (USAID, 2011). This causes feasibility issues for using mobile services for communication due to their heavy dependence on electricity supply, resilient communication infrastructures and strong reception rates.

Warning communication and response using mobile services 22

2.4. Characteristics of the community

The characteristics of the target audience must be understood in order to design effective warnings (Basher, 2006). It cannot be assumed that the community and its inhabitants are one uniform group that will respond in the same fashion to warnings communicated through mobile services. This sub chapter identifies why the community characteristics, exposure, past experiences, preparedness and coping mechanisms, risk awareness, social networks and ties beliefs and motivation, social characteristics, occupation, education, environmental and social cues and availability of mobile services are important to recognise for influencing the social performance. They are either linked with the affecting communication of the warning, end user’s response or vulnerability and are hence linked to social performance.

2.4.1. Elements at risk (exposure)

According to Balica et al., (2009) exposure represents the values or elements at risk that are present in the potential flood location. In a vulnerability assessment as part of a disaster risk assessment, the elements at risk within the community are identified and the causes of their vulnerable conditions taking into account physical, geographical, economic, social, political and psychological factors (ADPC, 2004). The identification of the elements at risk allows for the most vulnerable elements in the community to be found and hence those that a warning can aim to target. The resource levels, in terms of social, environmental, economic or physical goods in the community will reflect this vulnerability and can aid or hinder the response to the warning. Additionally the characteristics of the flood itself (frequency, duration, speed of onset) can mean that a community is more exposed and therefore can benefit more from a warning.

2.4.2. Past experience

The history of floods within a community, both frequency and severity, is an important characteristic to consider when thinking about the communication and response to warning. In particular how the community members themselves view the frequency and their experience of these floods. Research has found that those with greater past experiences of flooding, responded to the flood warnings more than those with a lower experience of flooding (Parker et al., 2007; Fielding et al., 2007). Past experiences are important in the learning process of coping with floods. These past events can serve as reminders, of the appropriate actions to take (Wilson, 1990) while in contrast; in periods with a lack of flood events one’s awareness will reduce (Burn, 1999). Additionally, if the community has experience in receiving early warnings their response to them can improve over time as they see the benefits of the information. Therefore, one’s previous experience is directly linked to risk awareness, risk knowledge and knowledge of coping mechanisms.

2.4.3. Flood preparedness and coping mechanisms

The key to success of to a flood warning system is preparedness planning (Carsell et al., 2004). Situational facilitators and impediments such as a lack of or a good knowledge on how to react and actively respond or an ability to react, will affect the effectiveness one’s behavioural response (Parker et al., 2009). The level of flood preparedness and knowledge of coping mechanisms can be connected to one’s risk knowledge, past experiences and risk

Flood warning communication using mobile services in flash flood communities of Bangladesh 23

perception. Higher levels of preparedness can be found in those with previous flood experience because people want to avoid the negative impacts that were experienced during the past event such as fear and helplessness (Terpstra, 2011).

A capacity assessment identifies the community’s resources and coping strategies that are engaged in for reducing the damaging effects of the hazards (ADPC, 2004). Capacities are the assets, resources and skills available within a community, used to reduce the risk or cope with, the effects of a disaster, including physical, institutional, social or economic and human resources/skills (ADPC, 2004). One such capacity is the availability of credit/loans post disaster. Improving the end user’s knowledge on response actions, through preparedness activities, can increase the capacity of the community and hence their response to the warning. The knowledge on such appropriate response actions should be embedded in the community through preparedness and awareness raising activities. This raises the question of whether or not this information should be written the warning message in order to trigger ones knowledge on the actions.

2.4.4. Risk awareness

The risk perception of the recipients is a factor influencing ones response to a warning (Twigg, 2003; Lindell and Perry, 2004). The end users knowledge and awareness of the risks associated with the hazard can affect their risk perception. When there is a lack of awareness among recipients this can increase vulnerability (Tapsell et al., 2010; Kuhlicke et al., 2011). This lack of prior awareness is intensified by a lack of past experience (Kuhlicke et al., 2011). In an ADB study it was found that the flash flood communities in Bangladesh had a high awareness of the dangers associated with the flash floods resulting in a higher risk perception (ADB, 2006). This risk perception will have an effect on the vulnerability of the community, where Tapsell et al. (2005) recommends distinguishing between individuals and communities of high and low perceived flood risk when evaluating how to communicate warnings to them, due to the low uptake of the automatic voice messaging (AVM) service in areas of low perceived risk. Schumm (1994) considers that risk perception is connected to the assumption that the way individuals perceive their vulnerability to natural hazards shapes their reactions and ways of coping with these risks.

2.4.5. Social networks and ties

The social ties of the warning end users and the social setting in which warning is received can influence ones decision to take responsive action (Mileti, 1995; Lindell and Perry, 2004). Shah et al. (2012) found that 40% of the farmers interviewed in the Uria Union of Bangladesh were dependent on their neighbours for taking action such as saving livestock, showing the importance of having good social ties (relationship with their neighbour) and a good availability of this network when receiving a warning. The study also showed the importance of the social setting in which the warning is received, where it was found that family unity influenced more than half of farmers response actions. These social ties can influence the effectiveness of the early warning message; if there are good social networks and ties this could result in a greater response to the warning and spread of the information, allowing more people to hear the message. This also shows the importance of good leadership in the community to ensure that these connections are available in times of flood. The local level institutions, committees and organisations can play a role in providing this.

Warning communication and response using mobile services 24

Those with limited access to social networks (measured by contact with authorities, friends and family) also tend to be less likely to receive information and support (Kuhlicke et al., 2011). Vulnerability is known to increase without access to a network (Cutter et al., 2003; Tapsell et al., 2002). Additionally the strength of the organisational structures/institutional networks will influence the community’s vulnerability. The relationship within the community is powerful for effective dissemination of warning messages and increasing the awareness of the community that such a message is available and can be used. A warning cannot expect to reach every single member of the community and therefore relies on the receivers to spread the message to their social networks be it, family, relatives, neighbours, friends or social groups. Additionally these networks can serve very beneficial during response actions that require helping hands and recovery efforts. It is important that a warning message utilises these networks.

2.4.6. Beliefs and motivation

One’s cultural beliefs and perceptions can influence their response to a warning. People can respond in a fatalistic fashion to warnings, giving up, feeling powerless and believing that it is not possible to protect themselves no matter what action they take (Maitland, 2008). Belief that one’s safety is affected by external sources such as luck, god, peers, and government can also influence their response (Lindell and Perry, 2004). For example, these religious beliefs are significant in Bangladesh where cyclones are traditionally seen as punishment from Allah (Schmuck, 2000). Anderson and Woodrow (1998) identify that one’s vulnerability increases with a lack of motivation for change. This can make communication to the end users more difficult and make them more likely to ignore a message.

2.4.7. Trust and awareness of institutions

Trust in institutions and credibility of message sources has shown importance in the public response to warnings (Terpstra, 2011). When a good institutional structure accompanied with good governance and leadership is in place at the community level, this will reduce the vulnerability and increase the coping capacity of the community to deal with disasters. Additionally, the reputation of the warning agency will affect the willingness of the end user to accept the technology (Tapsell et al., 2005), thus affecting the communication. During a flood event those with lower levels of trust in local authorities are described as being less likely to obtain help (Kuhlicke et al., 2011; Tapsell et al., 2010). The community people must firstly be aware of these institutions and trust them in order for them to believe information being disseminated through them. When people known to be respected and trustworthy are sending a warning and taking action in response to them then other community members are more likely to follow.

2.4.8. Individual social characteristics

There is a diverse range of needs across an at risk population influencing how one should communicate a warning to shape an effective response. It is recognised those of a certain age group, gender, physical disability, and/or ethnic minority are seen as the more the vulnerable groups in the community and having reduced capacities to recover (Tapsell et al., 2002). This vulnerability is deemed as having important implications for the communication of flood

Flood warning communication using mobile services in flash flood communities of Bangladesh 25

warnings (Tapsell et al., 2005) and the ability of these groups to respond to the warning as a result of their ability to hear, understand, believe and/or personalise the message (Mielti, 1995; Lindell and Perry, 2004). Age is an important factor which can influence one’s access to communication technologies, in this case mobile phones and their perception of the risk (past experiences of hazard, increased risk knowledge, network of friends) (Tapsell et al., 2005). The elderly are also known to receive less help (both formal and informal) and make up the majority of fatalities in major disasters (Kuhlicke et al., 2011; Jonkman et al., 2009). Women are also reported to be less likely to adopt preparatory measures and respond to information received during a flood event (Kuhlicke et al., 2011). Gender, ethnicity and disability are also identified as important factors affecting vulnerability, communication and response (Blaike 1994; Mileti, 1995; Tapsell et al., 2005).

2.4.9. Occupation

Different occupation groups of people (farmers, fishermen) would be expected to respond differently based on what is at risk to them. At the same time, employment indicates that a person is part of a network of people, where different occupation groups can have different interests with regard floods and respond in different ways. Low-income levels increase vulnerability (Tapsell et al., 2002) and can force people to think more economically about their response. Factors such as one’s to ability to bear the cost of taking flood response actions, accessibility of financial support, and cost benefit of taking actions are important economic considerations when deciding on a response (Shah et al., 2012). End users with higher income may not rely on flood warning because their house is on higher ground and they do not perceive the risk. On the contrary, they may have more valuable goods to lose and therefore value the warning more.

2.4.10. Education

Low education levels hinder the ability to understand warning information and are often linked with lower income and hence effective response to the warning (Cutter et al., 2003; Thrush et al., 2005; Kuhlicke et al., 2011). When communicating using mobile services as was done in USAID (2008), simplified messages were used so that the illiterate could interpret the message and training was required in order to achieve this (discussed further in Chapter 5).

2.4.11. Environmental physical and social cues

Environmental cues have a direct impact on response (Mileti, 1995; Lindell and Perry, 2004). Physical environmental cues such as seeing the river level rise or the floodwater in one’s locality, give an indication of the imminent threat and this is what people can rely on as a warning. In the riverine flood prone areas of Bangladesh it was found that people often take a “wait and watch” response to warnings, where 40% of those interviewed only took protective action once the flood was visible in their locality, even though a warning was previously disseminated, showing the strong influence of these cues (ADPC, 2009a). On the other hand, social environmental cues consist of ones behavioural observations around them. Observations such as seeing others evacuate, can reinforce the guidance messages given in the warning, inform them of new protective actions or remind them of the recommended protective actions and stimulate information seeking (Lindell and Perry, 2004). However,

Warning communication and response using mobile services 26

these can also work in the opposite way, if those around the recipient are not responding to the warnings, a constraint is formed on the implementation of the response action. A warning message needs to overcome this challenge, addressing the potential threat and influencing people to take action now rather than wait for these social and environmental cues.

2.4.12. Mobile services availability

The availability of mobile services within the community is ultimately going to determine their effective use for warning communication. This includes the amount of people that have access to, ownership of and know how to use a mobile phone. Additionally the type of mobile phones used and the way in which they are used is important to determine if mobile services can at all play a role in improving the social performance and if so the best way to do this.

2.5. Identified factors affecting social performance

The above chapter was driven by the concept of social performance. The factors identified to influence the social performance of the warning using mobile services, are presented in figure 2.3. These are expected to influence the communication to, and response by, the end users to warnings through mobile services. This forms the platform for the requirements for data collection in the study. Additionally, the literature identified the psychological process for protective action decision-making. This is used to assess the best mobile service technology to improve the social performance based on the data collected.

Figure 2.3 Identified factors affecting the social performance of a flood warning

Flood warning communication using mobile services in flash flood communities of Bangladesh 27

CHAPTER 3

Methodology

This chapter describes how the conceptual framework outlined in Chapter 1, using the factors identified through the literature in Chapter 2, is applied in this research to find the best way to use mobile services for warning communication. The different research tools used to collect the data on the warning, mobile services and community characteristics are discussed. A description of the field study area and the participant selection, used to apply the framework is then presented. Furthermore, the assessment of how to best use mobile services to improve the social performance, based on the data analysis is discussed.

3.1. Research tools

The approach to this study was qualitative, based on preliminary research in The Netherlands and followed by data collection, in Bangladesh, between May and July 2013. At the institutional level, semi structured interviews with key professionals and informal meetings at the relevant institutions were conducted. At the community level, Focus Group Discussions (FGDs) with different end-user groups were completed. Additionally, Key Informant Interviews (KIIs) with local knowledgeable people were conducted at the community level to supplement the data from the FGDs.

In order to understand the current flash flood early warning efforts from source to end user (research question 2), all of the above tools were applied. The information on the flash flood forecasting and early warning efforts was obtained from the interviews and meetings with the involved source agencies. This included gathering information on the dissemination pathways, the message communication modes and the available message content and style. At the community level, similar information was gathered, but through FGDs with different user groups, to see from their perspective, what information is currently available and how they respond to it. This information from the FGDs was supplemented by the KIIs to gather any further information on how the community currently manages with flash floods.

To gather data on the current use of mobile services (research question 3), interviews and meeting were held with the involved institutions in warning dissemination. This allowed the

Methodology 28

most current data to be collected on the advantages and disadvantages of each available service, in relation to the mobile services characteristics.

Information on the characteristics of the flash flood communities (research question 4) and their needs in terms of warning communication using mobile services (research question 5) was gathered from the FGDs and KIIs at the community level. This allowed information to be collected on the communities’ experiences with flash floods, their current coping mechanisms and the availability of mobile services within the community. Furthermore, their needs in terms of flash flood warnings, including the message content and style, source/dissemination pathway, lead time, accuracy and communication mode were identified. Additionally, their feelings on how to use mobile services in the best way to meet these needs was found, through demonstrating three possible messages and modes. This included SMS, Cell Broadcasting Service (CBS) and Interactive Voice Response (IVR).

Prepared checklists were used to collect the data from the interviews, FGDs and KIIs. These were formulated from the literature review of the factors expected to affect the social performance of the warning i.e. warning, mobile services and community characteristics. However, the checklists for KIIs at community level were formed after the FGDs. See figure 3.1 for the link between the research tools and the sub research questions, providing an overview of the above discussion. The next sections discuss these tools used in more detail and the reasons for implementing them in this study.

Figure 3.1 The link between the research questions (R) and the research tools

3.1.1. Semi structured interviews and meetings

A semi-structured interview is a qualitative research tool that allows for focused, conversational and two-way communication. It includes key questions but allows for flexibility to discuss specific aspects that are important for the particular individuals and to probe for further information.

Flood warning communication using mobile services in flash flood communities of Bangladesh 29

This tool was deemed appropriate for this study as it allowed information to be extracted from the key knowledgeable professionals at the national and regional level who are directly involved in either the flash flood early warning or warning communication using mobile services. This data collection was supplemented by informal discussions at additional organisations to strengthen the information found from the interviews.

Checklists were used to guide the interviews. One checklist was used to gather the information on the warning characteristics and another used for collecting information on the mobile services characteristics, which were used when visiting the relevant organisations, see Appendix A for both checklists. A list of the persons interviewed and organisations visited can be found in Appendix B.

3.1.2. Focus Group Discussions

A Focus Group Discussion (FGD) gathers people together from similar backgrounds or experiences to discuss a specific topic of interest (Dawson et al., 1993). A characteristic of an FGD is that participants are pre-informed and invited to participate at an agreed place and time. Participants in the group should share a common characteristic that encourages them to speak more freely without judgement of others.

The tool was chosen for this study because it allows for a range of communities’ beliefs, ideas or opinions to be gathered in a short amount of time. Information on the specific topic of flash flood early warning and communication using mobile services could be extracted from different groups based on their common characteristic. Additionally, studies on early warning requirements in Bangladesh used FGDs to gather field level information (e.g. USAID, 2008; ADPC 2009a). Therefore FGDs were deemed an appropriate tool for this study.

Checklists were used to guide the FGDs. The questions asked during the FGDs were open questions, formulated from the literature review and updated after the institutional level interviews, see Appendix C. The study sites and participant selection is discussed further in the section 3.2.

3.1.3. Key Informant Interviews

Key informant interviews (KIIs) are qualitative in depth interviews, conducted with a checklist, with a select group of individuals who are likely to have the knowledge, insights and ideas on a particular topic of interest (Kumar, 1986). These can be done with a range of different individuals such as community leaders, community group representatives, and government representatives etc. who are well connected to the real situation within the community.

This tool was deemed appropriate for this study to validate the data collected from the FGDs and to obtain more in depth knowledge on the communities’ conditions, needs and beliefs that may not have risen and allow for further exploration of topics rose during the FGDs. Additionally this tool has been used in other studies to collect data on community information needs in Bangladesh (USAID, 2008). A checklist was used to guide the interview and is found in Appendix D.

Methodology 30

3.2. Selection of case study sites and participants

3.2.1. Study area

The study area of this research is the low lying, flash flood prone district of Sunamganj located in the North-Eastern part of Bangladesh. Four Unions (Solukabad, Jagaddal, Uttar Sreepur and Surma) within the Sunamaganj District were selected to get a broader overview of the current flash flood situation. Through an initial analysis, the possible organisations currently running projects in relation to flash flood early warning were identified. This led to identifying three study areas for the research (Jagaddal, Solukabad and Uttar Sreepur) where the final study area (Surma) was found through meeting the organisation in Sunamganj and learning that they had a relevant project in warning dissemination. The organisations and their projects are briefly explained below. x Regional Integrated Multi-Hazard Early Warning System (RIMES) is an international and intergovernmental institution for the generation and application of early warning information. RIMES are disseminating flash flood warnings on a pilot basis to Jagaddal Union with the co-operation of the Flood Forecasting and Warning Center. x Center for Environmental Geographic Information Services (CEGIS) is a scientifically independent center that supports the management of natural resources under the Ministry for Water Resources in Bangladesh. CEGIS is implementing a localised flash flood warning system in Solukabad Union. x Caritas is an international non-governmental organisation (NGO) supporting human development work in Bangladesh and is running a Family and Community Level Flood Risk Reduction (FCFRR) project with a component on warning dissemination in Uttar Shreepur Union. x Voluntary Association for Rural Development (VARD) is a national NGO supporting development activities primarily in the Sylhet Division. VARD is running a Community Managed Disaster Risk Reduction (CMDRR) with a warning dissemination component in Surma Union.

The location of the study areas can be seen in figure 3.2. Severity of the flash floods in Sunamganj depends on time, intensity and quantity of rainfall in the Meghalaga hills and the drainage capacity of the rivers. Three of the Unions chosen for the study, Solukabad, Uttar Sreepur and Surma located at the foothills of the Indian Meghalaya mountains, in the severe flash flood prone area, whereas Jagaddal, located far away from the foothills, is in the low flash flood prone area (BARC, 2013). Furthermore, the study areas were chosen based on accessibility, local connections and familiarity of the areas, so that the data collection could be arranged in the short amount of time available. In addition, by selecting four different areas this helped to understand if there were any significant differences in the characteristics of the community, the warning and their needs for warning communication using mobile services. Further information on the study areas is presented in Chapter 6, which includes a supplementary Appendix with more detailed information on each study area from Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (2011) information.

Flood warning communication using mobile services in flash flood communities of Bangladesh 31

Figure 3.2 Field study area location map showing the research tools applied

Methodology 32

3.2.2. Participants selection

The characteristic of a FGD is that the participants share a common characteristic. In this study the characteristic was chosen to be livelihood groups and gender. Farmers are the main livelihood group at risk from flash floods and were therefore deemed appropriate for selection. Fishing is another key livelihood group in the haor region however, this sector is not directly affected by the flash floods. Although, considering that the field work was taking place during harvesting time, and that many fishers seasonally work as farmers, a fisher- farmer group was selected to get more information on their perspective towards flash flood early warning. The fisher farmer group consisted of single occupation fishers combined with some participants with a primary occupation as a fisher but also owns land or is involved with agriculture.

A women’s group was selected as the third user group for the FGDs. This was done to ensure that their ideas and beliefs could be clearly distinguished and that the male members did not overpower their views. The roles of men and women are unequally distributed in society and can have different access to information in disaster situations. It has been recognised in previous studies that women should play a role in the warning dissemination process (USAID, 2008; ADPC, 2008). Therefore, it was important to understand the women’s needs and expectations separately. The women were not selected from any particular income related household (fishers or farmers) but it was expected that they were from farmer households as this is the main livelihood group in the haor. The Union Disaster Management Committee (UDMC) was selected as the fourth user group. It was deemed important to select this group as it is responsible to disseminate warnings to the community as per the Standing Orders on Disaster (SOD) (MoFDM, 2010). The group was expected to either reflect different opinion or support those found at the community level.

Table 3.1 shows the groups that FGDs were held with for the different field study locations. A total of 12 FGDs were completed. This is also indicated in figure 3.2 above. The number of participants and the age distribution of the FGDs are shown in Appendix E.

Table 3.1 Field study locations and separate FGD types

UPAZILA UNION NAME VILLAGE PROJECT Group type NAME Farmer Women Fisher- UDMC Farmer Bishwambarpur Solukabad Baderteck CEGIS 33 3 3 3 Derai Jagaddal Old RIMES- 3 3 3 Nagupur FFWC Tahirpur Uttar Sreepur Indrapur Caritas 3 3 3 Sunamganj Surma Moinpur VARD 3 Sadar

The key informant interviews were conducted with different knowledgeable members in the community including, teachers, village police, microfinance office managers, field level agricultural officers, religious leaders (Imam) and local information centre representatives. A total of 8 KIIs were completed, in Solukabad Union. The detailed list of interviewees and their positions in the community can be found in the Appendix F.

Flood warning communication using mobile services in flash flood communities of Bangladesh 33

3.3. Data analysis

The analysis involved collecting the information gathered on the warning, mobile services and communities characteristics. The data collected from the semi-structured interviews, meetings, FGDs and KIIs was analysed manually.

The answers provided from the different interviews were combined and assessed. The interview scripts were written up after each interview and answers that fell under different characteristics were combined, to represent the information on the current warning system and use of mobile services.

The data collected from the FGDs with different end user groups was analysed manually. This was done by counting and evaluating the number of common answers. As expected multiple answers were often provided by participants due to the open nature of the questions. These were compiled into those identified for each study area and user group to identify any similarities or differences between the groups or locations. In some cases the participants gave a wide range of answers and this case they were grouped into a certain range for the analysis. The analysed results were used to supplement the information gathered on the current warning system, and gather the information on the communities’ characteristics and their preferences for warning communication using mobile services. In some cases these are presented in graphs that represent the percentage of FGDs that a certain answer was provided in, as multiple answers were possible therefore they do not sum to 100%. The data collected from the key informants at local level was again analysed manually and used to supplement the information from the FGDs.

This data was then gathered to identify how to use mobile services in the best manner to enhance the social performance of the warnings in the short, medium, and long term. This step first involved identifying the possible message contents and styles to be used in warnings through mobile services. Next this required assessing the best type of mobile services to be used based on four criteria:

1. If the message can be received by the end user 2. If it is actually paid attention to (i.e. message being read or listened to) 3. If it is understood 4. If it is personalised

These criteria were selected based the literature discussed in Chapter 2 (section 2.1.3) on the factors influencing the psychological protective action decision-making process. The chosen modes can then be placed in proposed dissemination pathway to complete the system for the short, medium and long term. This process is further outlined in Chapter 8. The proposed communication system is expected to improve the communication compared to the current situation, hence improving the response and ultimately improving the social performance of the warning.

Methodology 34

CHAPTER 4

Flash flood early warning characteristics

This chapter discusses the results of the findings on the current status of flash flood early warning in Bangladesh. The findings were gathered from the interviews and meetings with concerned institutions and organisations, combined with field level information from the FGDs and KIIs. In order to place this in the broader context the current flood early warning system in Bangladesh is first discussed. This chapter leads to the answering of research question 2.

4.1. Flood early warning in Bangladesh

There are various layers of agencies involved within the flood early warning system in Bangladesh. The Flood Forecasting Warning Centre (FFWC), established in 1972 under the Bangladesh Water Development Board (BWDB) is the national source agency mandated for flood forecasting and disseminating flood warnings in Bangladesh, including those for flash floods. The FFWC collects hydrological, meteorological and satellite data for inputs to forecasting models to interpret the current flood situation and to generate flood forecasts. The location of the flood forecasting points of the FFWC can be found in the Appendix G. During the flood season (May to October) the Flood Information Centre (FIC) under the FFWC produces daily flood forecast bulletins. A typical flood early warning bulletin includes key messages on the flood situation in major rivers such as the rise or fall of water levels within the past 24 hours, current water levels above the danger level, rainfall records, and forecast of water levels in the next 24, 48 and 72 hours (FFWC, 2013). In a recent project under the Comprehensive Disaster Management Programme (CDMP) II, the lead-time is being expanded to a 3 to 5 day deterministic forecast (experimental) and a medium range 10 day forecast (experimental).

The overall set up of the dissemination of flood early warnings in Bangladesh is shown in figure 4.1. As one of the stakeholders, the Department for Disaster Management (DDM) receives the forecast information from the FFWC and disseminates it through the District Disaster Management Committee (DDMC) at the regional level. They are responsible to disseminate the warning to the Upazila Disaster Management Committee (UzDMC) at the Upazila Parishad and from here to the Union Disaster Management Committee (UDMC) at

Flood warning communication using mobile services in flash flood communities of Bangladesh 35

the Union Parishad. It is the UDMC’s responsibility to disseminate to the household level. These duties for the different DMC’s on early warning dissemination are as per the Standing Orders on Disaster (SOD), (MoFDM, 2010). At the local level, dissemination using simple techniques such as flags, microphones and door to door messages is experimentally being used to inform the communities. Transferring warning information from district to the local level has been found to be the source of many communication delays and inefficiencies in the reaching the communities at risk (ADPC, 2008). Several projects are under way to improve the dissemination to the community including that of USAID (2008), which is discussed further in Chapter 5. In addition to this path, information is also expected to flow from National NGOs to their field level offices and through national and local media, to the community.

Figure 4.1 Dissemination pathway of warnings to the community level (ADPC 2008)

Flash flood early warning characteristics 36

4.2. Flash flood early warning

The official flash flood forecasting system in the North East hydrological region of Bangladesh is operated by the FFWC. The Institute of Water Modelling (IWM) and The Regional Integrated Multi-hazard Early Warning System (RIMES) are both involved in increasing the capacity of the FFWC to produce and disseminate flood warnings. Another independent effort is that of The Centre for Environmental and Geographic Information System (CEGIS) to predict flash floods but is not linked to the efforts of the FFWC.

NGOs across Bangladesh work on community based disaster risk reduction programmes to reduce the vulnerability and increase the capacity of the communities. For this research two such NGO projects were further explored, to see if the community based methods for warning communication could provide ideas for integration into the national system. The work of Caritas Bangladesh and VARD (Voluntary Association for Rural Development) were further studied.

Overall the findings show that the communities are not receiving any formal warning information and predominately relying on indigenous knowledge and information from the media. Additionally some rely on information from the Union Parishad (through mosque miking), BWDB and the identified NGO project, see figure 4.2. The message they receive is most often information of a flash flood occurrence or an embankment breach. The community are used to mobile phones, mosque miking, TV and word of mouth as modes of communication. The results from the findings on each of the above efforts are discussed below in terms of the warning characteristics; source/dissemination pathway, mode of communication, and message content and style.

Figure 4.2 Flash flood sources of information relied on for each community user group (% out of 10)

Flood warning communication using mobile services in flash flood communities of Bangladesh 37

4.2.1. FFWC-IWM (national level forecast and dissemination)

Source / dissemination pathway

National level forecast FFWC is working with the IWM under CDMP II, to increase the capacity for deterministic forecasting as part of the official flash flood warning system. A mathematical model is being developed for generating flash flood forecasts in the North East hydrological region of Bangladesh with 3 days lead time. Bangladesh Meteorological Department (BMD), National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecast (NCMRWF) and the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) are simulating Weather Research Forecast (WRF) models. The WRF models are numerical weather prediction models used to produce short-term weather predictions. The mathematical model at IWM includes a Rainfall Runoff (NAM) model of the entire catchments located in Bangladesh and cross-border in the North East hydrological region, a Hydrodynamic (HD) model of the river system with lump description of 37 submergible embankment projects in the region. The model simulates water level for 7 days hindcast and 3 days forecast. A sample forecast hydrograph at Kangsha River using the model is shown in figure 4.3. IWM at this moment is responsible for running the improved flash flood models and providing this information to the FFWC for further dissemination. The experimental dissemination started in April 2013 to a limited number of stakeholders. This included the regional BWDB offices, the District Disaster Management Committees (DDMCs) and to CDMP as an interim measure in 2013. This is not yet disseminated to the regular list of stakeholders, as for the riverine forecast.

Flash flooding results from the excessive rainfall in the upper hilly catchments of the Meghalya Mountains in India where gauges are required to validate the forecasting models employed. There are a limited amount of rain gauges available, where the only dependable gauge that can be used for forecasting is at Charapungi. In absence of gauge monitoring, rainfall is measured by extrapolating to the Indian catchments for the modelling. There is a radar station located at Moulivibazar in Bangladesh, however, radar data is still not available (potentially by February 2014), and therefore the present forecast is based on the rainfall monitored only within the Bangladesh catchment and WRF data. The performance evaluation of the flash flood forecast is expected to be available in December 2013.

Figure 4.3 Sample forecast for Kasgsha River (FFWC, 2013)

Flash flood early warning characteristics 38

District/Upazila level Field information suggested that the warning information of the experimental forecasting was not disseminated further than the district level office. The BWDB executive engineer in Sunamganj explained that the forecast was received but no action was taken. He explained that this is useful information, yet had no mechanism in place to disseminate this information to the community.

Additionally it was found that the Department of Agricultural Extension (DAE) obtains information from the FFWC and from here it flows through their network. The DAE representative at district level receives information from the national level DAE office and disseminates it to the Upazila Agricultural Extension Office (UAEO) at Upazila level and in serious cases they call the sub assistant agricultural officer (SAAO) at local level. The SAAO in Solukabad Union confirmed that he gets information from the Upazila level and from the district level in serious cases through mobile communication. He then disseminates this to the community through his farmer groups, however the farmer FGD’s did not talk about receiving information on flash floods from this source.

From the KIIs in Solukabad, further paths were identified for the dissemination of warning information. The teacher discussed having received information from the Upazila Parishad by phone where there was a flash flood and they then disseminated the information to the children during school and to their parents. The micro finance officers talked about having received information from their regional and national level offices and not from the Union Parishad, and from here they disseminate it to their network. The FGD participants did not identify these sources of information.

Local level The UDMCs confirmed they were not receiving the experimental flood forecast information from FFWC. It was evident from the discussion that presently, a warning dissemination system to the community level only activates once flash floods have arrived or an embankment has been breached etc. In each of the communities visited (Solukabad, Jagaddal, Surma and Uttar Sreepur) this situation was confirmed. The UDMC members in Solukabad talked about receiving information from the weather forecast and news over the television once the flash flood has arrived or damage has been done. A member of the UDMC who is also a member of the PIC (Project Implementation Committee), informed that this season he received a reminder phone call from BWDB with the information that the flash flood has not yet arrived but could happen, so make sure to protect the embankment. This information was disseminated to other members of the PIC in the community and then to the UDMC members. Additionally the UDMC expressed receiving a message from the UzDMC when a flash flood had occurred and disseminating this to the community. See figure 4.4 for the discussions with the UDMC members.

Flood warning communication using mobile services in flash flood communities of Bangladesh 39

Figure 4.4 Union Disaster Management Committees (UDMC) meetings

This dissemination of information by the UDMC was not reflected at the community level. However, participants in two FGDs, one at Solukabad and the other at Jagaddal, did say that on some occasions they received warning information from the UDMC through miking when a flash flood had occurred in another area or an embankment had breached. However the participants in the FGDs at the other study locations did not talk about receiving information from this source. One farmer group at Solukabad union also said that they get information from BWDB if there is a failure of embankment, however no other FGD participants talked about this source. In the majority cases it was understood that warning information, occurrence of a flash flood, embankment breach or the flooding of haor are obtained by the FGD participants from the media like TV and radio and their neighbours. See figure 4.5 for the FGDs with the women and farmer groups.

Figure 4.5 Focus group discussions with women and farmer groups

In the absence of formal early warning information, communities also rely on informal warning messages, which are based on their experience and indigenous knowledge, as discussed above. In 9 out of the 12 FGDs conducted, the communities expressed that they rely on certain signs to understand when impending flash flood would arrive. Those who have this knowledge directly share it with the community. FGD participants seemed to rely on this source of information for flash floods combined with information from the television.

Flash flood early warning characteristics 40

Communication mode

National level The national level experimental forecast is disseminated via the website of FFWC and by email/fax to the key stakeholders.

Local level In terms of the communication modes, it was found that the UDMC receive a call from the Upazila administration when a flash flood has occurred, but nothing related to the experimental forecast. They disseminate this information to the community through the mosque Imam who utilises the mosque miking system. The means of communication (formal and informal) include verbal communication, miking and television along with calling people through mobile phone, to alert those that an event has occurred.

Message content and style

National level An experimental flash flood forecast (see appendix H) is produced from the FFWC-IWM efforts generated for the North East hydrological region. This flood summary includes key messages on the flood situation in major rivers in this region (Kushiyara, Surma, Jadukata, Kalni and Kangsha) and rainfall information. The forecast is produced with a lead time of up to 2 days at eight stations in 2013. It contains the 6, 12, 24, 48hr water level rise and fall forecasts at monitoring stations. The 6hr and 12hr short duration forecasts have recently been introduced and are not forecasted for the other river monitoring stations. The current monitoring stations that are above danger level are also provided. The message uses words like “chance” and “possibility” if the conditions are expected to cause flash flooding or heavy rainfall. No guidance information is provided in the message.

Local level The message content and style found at the community level is simply ‘flash flood coming’ or ‘flash flood has already occurred’ and being guided to ‘harvest crops’ and ‘protect the embankment’. It is very clear that indigenous knowledge is being used and is accepted by the communities as useful warning information (see below). These findings on the current practices of using indigenous knowledge confirms the outcomes of previous studies where many flash flood prone communities were found to depend heavily on indigenous knowledge, and limited information from TV and radio (ADB, 2006; ADPC, 2009a; CNRS, 2008).

x Heavy rainfall at Meghalaya x Clouds at the Meghalaya mountains mountains (6hrs to 1 day before x Clouds moving fast flash flood) x Gusty southern wind x Continuous rainfall for 3 to 4 days x Water hyacinth covering the river x Watching the increasing river water x Dirty river water (high amount of level – sharp increase in water levels sediment)

It was unclear from the FGDs what was the current lead time available from the warnings, responses ranged from 2 hours to 1 day.

Flood warning communication using mobile services in flash flood communities of Bangladesh 41

4.2.2. FFWC-RIMES (national forecast and dissemination to community level) In addition to the efforts of FFWC-IWM, RIMES is supporting the FFWC for flash flood forecasting and early warning dissemination to the community level, however this is on a pilot project basis, one of which is a chosen study area for this research (Jagaddal Union in Sunamganj). USAID is funding these developments through the SHOUARDO-II programme on enhancing flood early warning system for community based response and CARE Bangladesh is supporting this application of improved flash flood forecasts to the community level (RIMES, 2012).

Source and dissemination pathway

National level RIMES has already been involved with developing the flash flood forecasting technology for Bangladesh using Weather Research Forecast (WRF) generated rainfall forecasts and river discharge data to generate flash flood forecasting. However, RIMES are now using a different approach under this project where probabilistic rather than deterministic forecasting is used. New technology using qualitative precipitation forecasts (QPF) and qualitative precipitation estimation (QPE) is applied, the methodology of which is shown in figure 4.6. This system is based on the flash flood guidance (FFG) system. A data base model, which uses historical QPE combined with real time QPE’s and QPF’s, predicts the localised flooding scenarios, up to 10 days in advance. This is based on correlations between the characteristics of flash flood and its triggering factors i.e. precipitation and discharge. The discharge threshold is estimated from what is expected to cause a flash flood, and a precipitation threshold is found which is expected to induce the river discharge threshold. The pre-established precipitation thresholds parameter is made based on the precipitation characteristics (amount, duration). The rainfall intensity thresholds for the pilot area must be found using historical rainfall and impacts data. This can then be integrated into the model to produce site-specific flash flood forecasts. The warning dissemination of the forecast is done from RIMES straight to the UDMC in the pilot area (Jagaddal) skipping the District and Upazila levels. The message is then expected to be disseminated by the UDMC to the community people, see Figure 4.7.

Figure 4.6 Flash flood forecast technology using QPE and QPF (RIMES, 2013)

Flash flood early warning characteristics 42

Local level

During the FGD in the Jagaddal union the UDMC members confirmed that they did receive a flash flood warning from the FFWC and RIMES. This was the first year they received warning from the pilot project. The UDMC informed that the message was disseminated to the Imam who then could disseminate to the community people using the mosque mike. Although this may have been done in other communities or villages, it was not evident from the FGD participants that they had received the information. Therefore, the communities were found to be relying on indigenous knowledge and information from the media or UP on flash floods. In this case it was beneficial that the community had not received the information because no flash flood occurred. The UDMC members had the opinion that receiving messages from the FFWC-RIMES was good, but it is also good to disseminate the message straight to the community people. They do not have the capacity to Figure 4.7 FFWC- RIMES dissemination to effectively disseminate to everyone and sometimes they community level don’t even open or see the messages on their mobile phone.

For this reason mobile services can be further utilised to increase the social performance of the warning enabling it to be disseminated and to reach the communities more effectively.

Communication mode The warning is sent to the union disaster management committees (UDMC) by mobile SMS and a phone call is then made to the UDMC to confirm the warning and ensure that the message is understood. The UDMC are then responsible to interpret this warning and disseminate it to the community using miking systems.

Message content and style The warning message was sent as a mix of Bangla and English language. An example of the message content sent (in English) can be seen below:

“Flash flood forecast for Jagaddal (Sunamganj). There is a chance to occur heavy to heavier rain within the next three days that may cause sudden flash flood situation”

The lead time provided by the message varies from 1 to 3 days where RIMES aim to only send the messages in emergency times. The pilot project has a program to increase the capacity of the UDMC on how to interpret the warnings and how to disseminate them further to the end users.

Flood warning communication using mobile services in flash flood communities of Bangladesh 43

4.2.3. CEGIS (national to community level dissemination)

Source and dissemination pathway

Another effort identified which is not linked to the efforts of the FFWC, is being done by The Centre for Environmental and Geographic Information System (CEGIS) with assistance from International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD) and NASA. This project is piloting a flash flood early warning system (EWS) in the Sunamganj area, starting with Solukabad Union, which was chosen as one of the study locations. The design of the pilot EWS to be implemented in Korchar Haor will be based on ground based sensors including a river level gauge installed in an upstream reach of the Jhalukhali River. The system deploys field based automatic sensors to collect data, in conjunction with mobile communication technology for data transfer and dissemination. Additionally ICMOD is implementing such a similar sensor based flash flood warning in neighbouring Assam (India). This dissemination process is expected to be done through CEGIS who issues Figure 4.8 CEGIS the warnings to the UDMC and also directly to the dissemination to community community level. level

See figure 4.8 for the dissemination process for adaptation by CEGIS.

Communication mode A siren system is being installed to disseminate the warnings to the communities in addition to using SMS. CEGIS communicates with the UDMC though SMS and they are expected to communicate with the communities through the mosque miking system of the Imam and word of mouth.

Message content and style The messages disseminated are expected to contain information that a flash flood is expected to occur. This system expects to achieve warning information with short lead times (approx. 2hours) but is hoping to increase this lead-time by using satellite-based information in the future. This system has not yet predicted any flash floods but is expected to be working for the 2014 flash flood season. The advantage of this system is that it is gathering information locally; however it’s set up is not integrated with the institutional system for dissemination.

Flash flood early warning characteristics 44

4.2.4. Caritas (community level dissemination)

Source and dissemination pathway Caritas Bangladesh run a Family and Community Level Flood Risk Reduction (FCFRR) project in 9 villages of Uttar Sreepur Union, Tahirpur Upazila in Sunamganj. In this project Village Disaster Management Committees (VDMC) and Ward Disaster Management Committees (WDMC) are formed and within these committees a help team is organised. The team identifies an early warning point person who listens to the news on the radio and television for government declared early warning information. Additionally at ward level a voluntary mobile network team is established who voluntarily disseminate this information to the community people. See figure 4.9 for an overview of the dissemination process at community level Figure 4.9 Caritas dissemination at used by Caritas. community level

During FGD in Uttar Sreepur the fisher-farmer group said that they receive information on flash floods from their friends/neighbours calling them on their mobile phones. They did not however, specifically mention that the mobile network team as the source or say that they got information from mosque miking.

Message communication mode The early warning point person disseminates the information through megaphone, mosque miking with the help of the Imam and the voluntary mobile network team disseminate to the community people by calling them through mobile phone.

Message content and style It was again found that indigenous knowledge and watching the television and news for flash flood information was being relied upon in Uttar Sreepur.

This system is engaging with the community but the efforts were not reflected in the FGDs, leaving many opportunities to improve the communication of the warning by further using mobile services and integrating it with the national system where possible.

Flood warning communication using mobile services in flash flood communities of Bangladesh 45

4.2.5. VARD (community level dissemination) VARD is undertaking a project called CMDRR (Community Managed Disaster Risk Reduction) covering 4 Upazilas, 16 Unions and 84 villages in Sunamganj. The Village Disaster Risk Reduction Committees (VDRRC) are comparable to the VCMC and WDMC formed by Caritas for warning dissemination.

Source and dissemination pathway The VARD project office in Sunamganj collects any available flash flood early warning information from the Internet (FFWC, BMD, IMD etc.), by calling the BWDB and checking the TV for any news updates. The project officer recognised that the BWDB water level gauge recordings are not updated enough online for him to collect the information; although the information is being collected every 3 hours and could be useful for his warning procedure. The project officer assesses the situation based on this information combined with the information at the community level. Within the VDRRC there is an assigned mobile user who collects information each day on the weather Figure 4.10 VARD dissemination to condition, water levels (with a bamboo community level stick), indigenous knowledge and damages.

When conditions are deemed threatening the project officer calls the mobile user and others in nearby villages with a warning message. See figure 4.10 for the overview of the dissemination process used by VARD. The use of the mobile user was reflected in the community discussions as some participants had received information from them before.

Message communication mode Locally formed information is communicated from the mobile user to the VARD project office in Sunamganj through a mobile phone call each day. The mobile user disseminates the message by calling through mobile phone to the Imam (who then disseminates through mosque miking) and to other identified persons. The mobile user is paid a small amount to cover the cost of the mobile calls. It was recognised during the FGD that he lacks the capacity to disseminate to everyone.

Message content and style The warning message is again simply whether there is a threat of a flash flood.

This method is quite different to that of Caritas and the others discussed. Although largely dependent on different formal sources, at the same time they utilise their own measurements and some indigenous knowledge through a feedback system. Although it was found that the communities received information from the mobile user, it was not effective in reaching all of those at risk. An improved use of mobile services can achieve this more satisfactorily.

Flash flood early warning characteristics 46

4.3. Community response

Response actions taken by the community were found to be mainly focused on protecting crops (harvesting and collecting) and the embankment, where all three user groups were found to do this, see figure 4.11, showing the importance of these elements in the community. Women were found to focus more on protecting household items and storing essential goods but also help to harvest their husband’s crops and protect the embankment. The farmers’ core response activity is to protect the embankment and begin harvesting their crops. It was seen that the community engage with each other to help one another carry out the response actions, giving particular assistance to the farmers in harvesting the crops. It was found in each FGD that the community people shared the information they had with others. However, the community in Uttar Sreepur did not talk about protecting the embankment. This can be explained because the embankments in the Union are not directly protecting this community.

In addition to these positive response actions, negative actions were also found. In four FGDs the participants expressed that there was ‘nothing to do but wait and pray’, to wait for the flash flood to arrive and pray that the damages would be minimal. This also shows the strong connection they have with religion. However in two of these groups, the other participants within the group did talk about taking protective actions. The activities of the UDMC are very different to those found at the community level. It was found that their actions include, disseminating the warnings in their communities and to the mosque Imam, organising NGOs and local volunteers, rescuing those in the most danger and creating a list of affected people for the government. Although these are the response actions that the community people attempt to take, a number of points were raised that constrain them from carrying out these activities effectively (this is further discussed in Chapter 6). If a warning is effectively communicated to these communities it can allow them to take these actions more prominently.

Figure 4.11 Response actions of women, farmer and fisher-farmer groups (% out of 10)

Flood warning communication using mobile services in flash flood communities of Bangladesh 47

4.4. Identified implications for effective warning communication using mobile services

The results of the analysis on the current warning efforts for flash floods show that there are many different initiatives working on warnings in different ways with some focused more on information generation (FFWC, RIMES, IWM) and others on community level dissemination (Caritas, VARD). Unfortunately, none of the efforts proved to be very successful at reaching the community people. Mobile services were identified as already being used in the dissemination process, especially among the community people themselves. The main response activities taken by the communities include protecting their crops and the embankment. This shows that there are many ways for mobile services to play a role in getting these warnings to the community level so that they can respond to them, improving the social performance. This is further discussed in terms of the warning characteristics, message content and style, communication mode and source/dissemination pathway. These form the conclusions for the chapter and the answer to research question 2.

4.4.1. Message content and style x The end users have no experience with formal early warnings; they are not used to receiving complex messages about expected water level rise or rainfall in relation to flash floods (similar to the FFWC-IWM bulletin). x The messages produced by FFWC-RIMES are simple ‘possible sudden flash flood due to heavy rainfall’ in a certain amount of time and are localised to a specific Union. This is the type of information that the communities are used to receiving, however, primarily after a flash flood has occurred elsewhere. The potential lead time of the FFWC-RIMES message (1 to 3 days) is more than they are currently receiving offering more benefits. x The content of VARD messages is again simply whether or not a flash flood will occur, with the aim to be locally specific due to their integration with the communities’ information. This again matches what the communities are used to receiving, however the messages do not contain guidance information and the communities did express receiving this when they get information on flash floods. x Thus such messages combined with guidance information could be a useful message to provide directly to the communities using mobile services. Due to the dependence on indigenous knowledge the warning messages should blend with this to give the message a more understandable and acceptable feeling to the local people.

4.4.2. Message communication mode x The predominant modes being used across each effort are mobile phone communication and the Internet up to district level. Below this mobile phone, television, personal communication and mosque miking are used to get information to the community people. x Both NGO projects used mobile phone communication at the community level and in

Flash flood early warning characteristics 48

addition community members were found to use their mobile phones to inform and warn each other about upcoming events. This was done either once the news was heard that an event could or had happened. This shows that even with short lead times information is spread across the community using mobile services, which could be done more effectively through additional dissemination through a more formal way of using mobile services. x The only formal effort that used mobile services (SMS) was RIMES but only to the UDMC and not the community people. However, such a message given directly to the community, through SMS could prove difficult in ensuring the message is opened and understood (as was suggested by the UDMC members). Another difficulty could be the size of the message if guidance information was to be provided.

4.4.3. Source/dissemination pathway x The information was identified to have potential to flow from the FFWC, DAE (through the SAAO), Union Parishad (UDMC), BWDB (through the PIC), media, teachers, NGOs (local volunteers) and the community people themselves (indigenous knowledge) to the community, see figure 4.12. It is clear from this figure that there are many possible structures for communicating flash flood information and these are not yet effective (those with darker lines were confirmed at the community level), leaving many possibilities to improve the social performance of the warnings. In particular the BWDB who is responsible for embankment construction and repair, thereby connected to the community living within these areas. x However, the RIMES-FFWC information did reach the UDMC but not successfully to the communities. Only minimal awareness was found of the mobile users at the VARD project while for the Caritas the project was not identifiable from the FGDs, however participants did discuss receiving flash flood information from friends. x The experimental forecast by FFWC-IWM has not yet reached the community and arrangement for community dissemination was non-existent. In this case, 2013, it was not required because flash floods did not occur. Although the information is available on the website (at least temporarily) which could be accessed by anyone (like in the case of the VARD officer) and be disseminated to the community, if understood. x Although the UDMC did not receive the FFWC-IWM forecast this year, it has the potential to be disseminated through this route, from the Upazila and District DMCs, as per figure 4.12. However, it has been found that this is a slow process (ADPC, 2009a) and therefore additional and more direct methods could also be employed. x The dissemination of warnings through RIMES is an improvement on that of the FFWC’s regular process, going in a faster way through SMS directly to the UDMC members. Although in 2013 this information did not reach the community (as found from the selected participants) it does have potential to do this. x The UDMC members expressed their limitations to disseminate to everyone in the community and expressed that sometimes they fail to see the message. Additionally, it was

Flood warning communication using mobile services in flash flood communities of Bangladesh 49

only identified in two FGDs that communities receive information from the Union Parishad through miking. Therefore, it is not enough to rely on the UDMC for effective dissemination but they should still be integrated in the process. Direct dissemination to the community people or some local representatives would enhance this process. x The dissemination pathway of CEGIS seemingly will be faster from CEGIS to the UDMC and the community level; however it is not yet implemented so it is unclear how effective it can be. x VARD and Caritas are integrating the community to aid in the prediction and dissemination of flash floods information. The effort by VARD is commendable as it integrates the indigenous knowledge with the other formal information involving communities. The problem is that this is time consuming and similarly to Caritas it is not linked with the official framework for warning dissemination.

Figure 4.12 The identified paths for flash flood information dissemination to the community level

Further challenges identified are the limited capacity of the current efforts to produce warnings with long lead times and information that is locally specific. Chapter 7 discusses the communities’ particular needs and requirements, in this regard, for an improved warning and communication process. The next chapter discusses the current use of mobile services for warning communication in Bangladesh.

Flash flood early warning characteristics 50

CHAPTER 5

Mobile services characteristics for flood early warning in Bangladesh

This chapter presents the information gathered on the current use of mobile services for flood warning dissemination in Bangladesh. Primary information was collected from interviews and meetings with involved stakeholders in Bangladesh, combined with a review of web-pages and documents. The chapter includes a discussion on SMS, Voice SMS, CBS and IVR where the advantages and disadvantages for warning communication are identified. This chapter answers research question 3.

5.1. Mobile services in Bangladesh

Over the past decades the percentage of mobile phone owners has rocketed across the globe. In the United States 88% of the population in 2012 owned a mobile phone, (Smith, 2012). The total number of mobile phone subscribers in Bangladesh is 105.051 million as of June 2013, with an average rise of 10% per year (BTRC, 2013). There are three main mobile phone operators working in Bangladesh, Grameen Phone, Banglalink and Robi. Another operator Teletalk is the only one which is government owned. See table 5.1 for the review of the operators and the number of subscribers. Mobile phones are no longer considered a luxury among the impoverished. The availability of pre-paid services allows even those on very low incomes to maintain a phone. In Bangladesh where 34% of the population lives below the poverty line (BBS, 2011) many people still spend approximately the minimum bill of US$5 per month (Azad et al., 2013) for mobile services. This strong penetration of mobile phones has provided opportunities to communicate warnings to end users in a fast and reliable way.

Table 5.1 Number of subscribers per mobile phone operator in Bangladesh, June 2013 (BTRC, 2013)

Mobile Phone Operators Active Subscribers (Total 105,051) Grameen Phone Ltd. (GP) 43,967 Banglalink Digital Communications Limited 27,076 Robi Axiata Limited (Robi) 22,897 Airtel Bangladesh Limited (Airtel) 7,821 Pacific Bangladesh Telecom Limited (Citycell) 1,383 Teletalk Bangladesh Ltd. (Teletalk) 1,908

Flood warning communication using mobile services in flash flood communities of Bangladesh 51

5.2. Short Message Service (SMS)

5.2.1. Official system (Bulk SMS)

An official system of disseminating bulk SMS has been found existing at Department of Disaster Management (DDM) being operated by the Disaster Management Information Centre (DMIC) and the Comprehensive Disaster Management Programme (CDMP). The DMIC at CDMP acts as a linking platform for dissemination of information from FFWC and BMD to DDM stakeholders. DMIC is developing a database for the mobile numbers of the Chairman and Member secretary of Disaster Management Committees (DMC), at District, Upazila and Union levels. The DDM is in the process of collecting all DMC’s members’ numbers. The platform is still in the developing stage and presently it allows DDM to disseminate a message for example to hold a UDMC meeting. A problem identified was that it is difficult to keep all the numbers updated, as many positions in the DMC’s change over time. This bulk SMS system is being set up for use at all stages of the disaster management cycle; from disseminating warnings to response and relief efforts. The system has a potential for bringing about coordination between different government agencies, providing local warning and also involving mass media for public warning. The current messages cannot be sent in Bangla due to handset limitations and are therefore sent in a mix of Bangla and English. However, there has been an agreement made that end users on all networks will receive the message. The system has been set up for two-way communication but it is not currently being used as it depends how far the end users can be trained.

5.2.2. Pilot projects integrating SMS for dissemination

As part of USAID (2008) pilot study, warnings were disseminated using SMS. This was disseminated from CEGIS directly to local subscribed users, flag and bulletin board operators and UDMC’s at Union level (USAID, 2008). A database contained all the users’ numbers and Banglalink’s server determined which SMS would go to which mobile numbers. The database was formed based on collecting the mobile phone numbers of the interested persons in the community. The format of the SMS can be seen in figure 5.1. An innovative method was introduced to increase the understanding of the message by using symbols. A simple + symbol representing a bighat (22cm) increase in water level in the next 24 hours (- = decrease; 0 = steady) was used and integrated into further pilot projects on warning dissemination initiatives for riverine flooding. The end users required training on how to interpret these messages and respond accordingly. An advantage of SMS is that the providers can get confirmation that the message was sent however they cannot know if it was actually opened or understood. The cost of providing such messages can be high and this project was done with the support of Banglalink through their corporate social responsibility program (CSR) making it only possible for Banglalink customers to get the message.

Additionally, the pilot project between FFWC and RIMES, as discussed in Chapter 4 is using SMS. When there is a threat of flash flooding, the SMSs are being sent directly from the source agency, FFWC/RIMES to the UDMC members. The messages are not sent directly to the community people unlike the USAID project. The message used words rather than symbols, as the members of the UDMC receiving the message are more educated. Due to the compatibility problems for SMS in Bangla the message is sent in a mix of English and Bangla

Mobile services characteristics for flood early warning in Bangladesh 52

language. Additionally these messages are sent on a once off basis, therefore the process can be quite slow, because the messages are sent to individual phones, which can lead to network congestion. It was found (from Teletalk, a mobile operator) that many people like to hold more than one sim card for their mobile and people prefer to use their phone for calling over texting (SMS). It was also learned that end users generally do not pay attention to SMS messages because of unwanted/junk SMS filling up the space in the mobile.

CEGIS Flood Info: Lautara 7-Sep-2007 14:21 ++ (Courtesy Banglalink)

Here, A = Source of flood forecast message B = Mauza name C = Date D = Time of sending message E = Rise or fall of water level: One plus sign (+) means one bighat (22cm) rise of water level, one minus sign (-) means 1 bighat (22cm) fall of water level. F = Courtesy to Banglalink

Figure 5.1 Format of mobile SMS for flag operators and households (USAID, 2008)

5.2.3. Voice SMS In order to combat some of the disadvantages associated with SMS, namely the difficulties in understanding with the text, a Voice SMS is another possibility. The voice SMS is saved on the phone of the end user and can be listened to again if necessary. According to the telephone operator Teletalk, this is not currently being used for warning dissemination but it is possible and available in Bangladesh. Two disadvantages of the service were, however, identified by Teletalk. First, the costs are higher than SMS (approximately 4 times) and second they can only send the messages to their customers and this would not be specific to those that require the message (similar to SMS). Additionally, customers are not used to receiving these types of messages (more aware of SMS), however they arrive on the handset in the similar way to SMS so it intuitive to open the message. The Prime Minister of Bangladesh availed of this Voice SMS service, successfully sending a health awareness-raising message about a community clinic project in a particular area in Bangladesh on the 10th of June 2013.

A recognised problem in using either SMS or voice SMS is requirement of the collection of the end users numbers. There is a problem in that the other mobile phone operators don’t want to share their mobile users’ numbers. It is necessary to get Bangladesh Telecommunication Regulatory Commission’s (BTRC) approval, though if it is deemed necessary enough to do this, it can be approved. Additionally the point was raised that under the regulations of BTRC one is not allowed to ask the end user to pay for warning messages are being pushed. This applies to Voice SMS along with SMS and CBS where the message cost must be borne by either the operator or the information provider. Teletalk also discussed another upcoming service video SMS but this would require more compatible handsets.

A specific example of SMS was used in the discussions with the communities but for Voice SMS the community members were only asked if they would like such a message.

Flood warning communication using mobile services in flash flood communities of Bangladesh 53

5.3. Cell Broadcasting Service (CBS)

CBS as a warning dissemination tool is currently in its initial stages of development but is desired and recognised by DDM as being an important part of the official early warning system in Bangladesh. CBS was first introduced in a pilot project in 2009 under CDMP in the riverine flood prone district of Sirajganj and coastal flood district of Cox Bazar. According to CDMP representatives, the service received positive feedback from the end users and after the pilot, the system was scaled up to 14 coastal districts. Currently the service is only available through certain mobile phone operators where an agreement has been made with DDM (Grameenphone and Teletalk) meaning that only their subscribers will receive the message. There are additional limitations to who can receive the message due to problems with handset configuration for the service. Additionally, there is no beeping alert when the message arrives on the mobile. This is possible in other countries where CBS is being used (e.g. NL-Alert, CMAS) and could greatly improve the number of people that pay attention to the message.

The FFWC and BMD can convert their warning messages into a suitable format to be sent through CBS by the mobile phone operators directly to the communities at risk. The message appears on the mobile phone as a scroll message if the user is within range of the cell tower of either Teletalk or Grameenphone. This is a simple and fast process. The current message format available for riverine areas includes information that the water level is a certain number of centimetres above danger level (WADL) and the expected rise (+) or fall (-) of the river water level in the next 24, 48, 72 hours e.g. WADL0.30CM,+032CM,24H as shown in figure 5.2. In this case the message is for the flood forecasting point of the FFWC on the river Jamuna. Due to technical constraints there is a size limitation of 20 characters. The size of the message is expected to increase to 80 characters once these technical constraints are resolved but message formats have not been designed for this to date. The message will remain on the screen until the provider is told by either the FFWC or BMD to remove it. The message sent through the service is in English because of the incompatibility of handsets for Bangla. However it was discussed that the government has made a policy that any new handsets being imported to Bangladesh must have Bangla compatible functions. This is expected to reduce this problem in the future.

Figure 5.2 Cell broadcasting service example message and explanation (DDM, 2013)

Mobile services characteristics for flood early warning in Bangladesh 54

The main advantage recognised by CDMP, DDM and Teletalk is that CBS is faster than SMS, the messages are not sent in a queue but are automatically sent allowing dissemination to a larger volume of people to be easier than with SMS. Additionally the message does not require opening and it stays on the screen. Therefore combating some of the disadvantages discussed for SMS. Additionally the service is geographically specific, targeting users in specific areas relating to the cell tower locations. There are some technical limitations in the current infrastructure, as all the cell towers have not been updated to perform such services. It is acknowledged by DDM that the awareness of the system is currently very low and could require up to three years practicing the system and training the end users to receive and interpret the messages. Posters and booklets were used during the piloting to increase awareness of the end users on how to interpret the message during the pilot project. It is hoped that the disaster management committees can play a role in this combined with NGO members for training people in understanding the message. This message in figure 5.2 was used as part of the FGDs and KIIs (although it is representative for riverine areas).

5.4. Interactive Voice Response (IVR)

An IVR service has been implemented by the DDM for disseminating warning and disaster related information from the FFWC and BMD in Bangladesh. This initiative was formed under the DDM and the Disaster Management Information Centre (DMIC), through funding from CDMP. The system was under testing and made available to the public in January 2013. The service is demand-based, where the general public can dial a specific number (10941), listen to the available options, press the one they wish to receive information for and obtain a pre-recorded voice message in Bangla. The current information available includes five categories (see list below figure 5.3) available 24 hours a day, 7 days a week. The pre- recorded messages are prepared by the FFWC and BMD who upload these files through the Internet. The government owned mobile phone operator, Teletalk Bangladesh Ltd, currently operates the IVR. Through an agreement with other operators the system is accessible to everyone on all mobile phone networks, countrywide, which is a huge advantage of this service. Other similar services, for health and agriculture information are available, but face the problem that only the end users on a certain mobile phone network can use the service due to agreements with that operator. The service is only available in Bangla, which is a huge advantage over the other services but means that tourists (speaking English) cannot utilise it.

Press:

1 - For Sea going fishermen

2 - For River port warning

3 - For Daily Weather Bulletin

4 - For Cyclone Warning

5 - For Flood Forecast

6 - For back to the main menu

Figure 5.3 IVR service and the options for information

Flood warning communication using mobile services in flash flood communities of Bangladesh 55

It was clear from the interviewees that the information contained within the message is limited to a general message (flow is above danger level) but will trigger the end users to seek additional information. An example of the content in the messages available for daily weather report and flood forecast is shown in Appendix I. It was also discussed that in the future the service would hope to become more locally specific. Figure 5.4 below shows the options chosen from those available by every caller that used the service between January 1st 2013 and June 16th 2013. The data is taken from Teletalks database of all the people that have used the service between this time. It is clear that the service is being used most in the coastal areas for weather alerts for seagoing fishermen (29%) and cyclone warnings (44%) rather than for information on general weather information and flood forecasts. The system experienced a large volume of users during the period of Cyclone Mahasen, May 2013 when the number of calls recorded in one day rocketed to 10,000 (May 15th) compared to a regular 50 calls (non cyclone warning).

8% 29% Seagoing Fisherman River ports Daily Weather 44% 11% Cyclone Special 8% Flood forecast

Figure 5.4 IVR use January to June 2013 (Data source: Teletalk Bd)

This IVR initiative has been recognised by the Prime Minister’s Office as a cutting edge initiative, however it was accepted that the community awareness of the system is very poor. This is reflected in the poor use of the system for flood forecasts, see figure 5.4. The DDM are planning to change the number to a shorter more recognisable one and once a shorter number for the service is assigned e.g. 112 then a nationwide awareness campaign will begin by producing booklets and leaflets, along with a TV campaign.

A limitation of the service is that it is not available from a free phone number; the end users must pay the cost of the call to receive the information. For this reason, representatives of DDM said that messages are aimed at being kept to a time limit of 1 minute. The service currently costs around 0.5 to 1.5 Takas per minute (USD equivalent approx. 0.06 to 0.25 cents). The CDMP representative said that it is the goal of CDMP to make the service free in future. Teletalk representatives talked about the service being very technically sound and very easy for them to operate leading on to say that the most important component of the service is that it provides accurate and useful information. During the discussions with Teletalk, a point was mentioned that FFWC and BMD often experienced problems uploading the files with the warnings and for this reason special training is organised by Teletalk.

The IVR service of the DDM (10941) was used as a demonstration during the FGDs and KIIs. The awareness of the participants for the other services was also assessed.

Mobile services characteristics for flood early warning in Bangladesh 56

5.5. Identified implications for effective warning communication using mobile services

Mobile services are currently being used in three ways, SMS, CBS and IVR along with the upcoming mode of Voice SMS. Each mode has its advantages and disadvantages relating to the different characteristics of mobile service, each of which can have implications for the use of mobile services for flood warning communication. The following is a discussion that reflects the findings on the mobile service characteristics identified in the social performance framework. A more in depth analysis of the identified advantages and disadvantages of the SMS, Voice SMS, CBS, IVR service relating to the warning characteristics is presented in table 5.2. These form the conclusions for the chapter and answer research question 3.

5.5.1. Accessibility

In order for a warning message to be utilised, it must first be received and paid attention to it. SMS and CBS were found to be more problematic on the technical side, where the end user may fail to get the message because of handset limitations for CBS (may not be noticed or received) or be reluctant to subscribe to get SMS, or be subscribed to a different mobile phone operator. Whereas, IVR poses the problem that the end users must remember the number and initiate the call. For SMS they may receive the message but fail to open, read and understand the message. CBS can send messages much faster to all the mobile phones in a given area unlike SMS that is sent point to point and therefore much slower. However, some problems were found in that they could not be sent to all the districts at the same time, causing some delay in the message being received on some handsets. These problems can be addressed by combining the use of the services.

5.5.2. Accessibility to users information

The accessibility to user’s information poses a problem for SMS, where the end users details must be collected and stored before one can disseminate a message to them. The mobile phone operators, however, can send messages to all their customers but this will not reflect those that need them. This is not a problem for CBS or IVR. However, the DDM is creating a database with selected end users’ numbers at the administration level but has no mechanism in place to collect regular community people’s numbers.

5.5.3. Targeted information

SMS allows for more specific messages to be sent to different people, if their information is collected through subscription. This cannot be done for CBS, however messages can be sent to specific geographic areas yet these geographic areas may not coincide with the areas at risk. The IVR service allows for the end users to choose options on the type of information that is useful to them and could be made more specific to target areas.

5.5.4. Awareness

Raising awareness of the services was identified as a big challenge for each mode of mobile services where effectiveness of the communication will depend greatly upon this. This is

Flood warning communication using mobile services in flash flood communities of Bangladesh 57

particularly important for CBS and IVR, as they are new ways to provide information to the end users in Bangladesh. SMS has the advantage in that the users subscribe so they then will be expecting the message. However, the awareness raising is still needed for getting people to subscribe. Awareness raising is crucial for CBS because the service currently has no beep or pop up message and for IVR, people must be made aware that the service is available in order for them to avail of it.

5.5.5. Limitations on message size and content

The message content in a mobile service message is limited, especially for CBS being limited to 20 characters in the current message. SMS is an improvement on this, however, IVR and Voice SMS allow for a lot more information to be available. The only constraint for IVR being that it is more costly for the end user to receive the information for a longer time, due to the cost of the call. The IVR option for cyclone warnings does provide much more information related to the preparation but this guidance information is not yet provided for the flood forecast option. Both SMS and CBS limit their messages to providing information on the current and expected water level rise or fall in a given amount of time. SMS has the advantage that it has a beep whereas the current CBS messages are just automatically shown on the users screen. A big problem is the language of the SMS and CBS messages being limited to English symbols or abbreviations or a mix of English and Bangla for the messages in words due to constraints in Bangla messages. Additionally the IVR can take time to get through the options to the find the required information, with increasing costs.

5.5.6. Two way communication

The bulk SMS system is currently set up for two-way communication but is not used and other SMS services have not utilised this. However it is possible for the end user to reply to the message, which is not the case for CBS. Additionally IVR currently does not provide opportunity get information back from the end user. However, this is something that could be integrated. It does allow for the service providers to see how many people are using it and for which options, which can be useful for tracking the success of the awareness raising activities. Additionally, IVR allows for different types of information to be held within the one service. The SMS service can be used to provide information at all stages of disaster management but has limited space in the message.

5.5.7. Message frequency

Limited information was found on the frequency of the messages provided. The CBS allows for the message to be maintained on the users’ phone for as long as required and updated whenever necessary. Whereas, an SMS is just sent once to the end user, it can be sent multiple times if the message needs updating but it was unclear from the discussions how often this occurred. The messages provided in IVR service are updated daily in the morning and recorded by FFWC and BMD.

5.5.8. Multiple communication channel

It was clear from the discussions that these communication methods using mobile services should be supplemented with additional channels at the local level. This should be done to

Mobile services characteristics for flood early warning in Bangladesh 58

make sure that the information spreads to those without mobiles or to those that cannot understand the messages. Additionally, it was suggested by the DDM and Teletalk that multiple type of mobile services should be utilised.

5.5.9. Cost of the services

The cost of both SMS and CBS must be borne by the providers of the information or the cell phone companies. Agreements have been made with the cell phone companies to provide this service as part of their corporate social responsibility (CSR). In the case of IVR the cost of the service is shared between the end user and the mobile phone operators.

5.5.10. Infrastructure requirements

This factor poses the most problems for CBS, where all the cell phone towers in the country are not updated. SMS does not require any different infrastructure. It was noted the IVR experienced some technical problems causing a minor shutdown of the service but is still technically sound. All services are reliant on electricity for successful uploading and dissemination of the messages.

Overall the most pressing challenges for using SMS and CBS are the inability to have a Bangla message, the need to provide simple and easily understood messages and to reach all end users on different mobile phone networks. For SMS and Voice SMS, the need to collect the specific end users information was identified. For CBS the biggest challenges are the technical limitations of the mobile phones, the infrastructure, along with the message lacking a beep and pop up full screen message. For IVR, the biggest challenge lies within the contained information. The service is only beginning and the information provided is country wide and general. Awareness raising was recognised as a key element to the success of all three mobile services but in particular CBS and IVR. The challenges are both from the end users side, to actually open and pay attention to the message while from the provider’s side, to make the information accessible to all end users, in a useful and understandable way.

Additionally there are many identified opportunities for using mobiles services. DDM is utilising three of the discussed methods. SMS and CBS are in the process of being integrated into the dissemination system and IVR is implemented. Overall the advantage of SMS is that it can be more targeted to the user, CBS can be more targeted to the geographic area and IVR allows one to access information based on their own demand. The cost of using the services can be reduced through CSR with mobile phone operators and in IVR by the end users paying for the call. The message size of IVR gives it an advantage to hold more information. Voice SMS holds huge opportunities for the end users as a push method but is not currently being used.

The characteristics of mobile services will be further discussed in Chapter 7 (community warning needs assessment) with the results from the different mobile services demonstrations.

Flood warning communication using mobile services in flash flood communities of Bangladesh 59

Table 5.2 Analysis of the advantages and disadvantages of SMS, Voice SMS, CBS and IVR

SHORT MESSAGING SERVICE (SMS) VOICE SMS CELL BROADCASTING SERVICE (CBS) INTERACTIVE VOICE RESPONSE (IVR) Advantages Disadvantages Advantages Disadvantages Advantages Disadvantages Advantages Disadvantages Accessibility - Bulk SMS system can now - SMS is not used in daily life - Message is saved on the phone - Currently can only target - Independent of the regular - May not be noticed on the - Demand based - Always - It needs to be initiated by the provide SMS to all mobile - Unable to send messages in mobile phones who are mobile phone network – no phone accessible information end users service providers Bangla, some can accept a mix customers of the mobile phone congestion - Handset limitations (not be - Need to remember the number - The provider can get of Bangla and English but most operators with whom there is - Messages can be sent fast to a received) (currently long number) confirmation that the message only English. an agreement large volume of people - Currently limited to 2 mobile - National based service was sent - Often limited to the end users phone operators within a certain mobile phone (Grameenphone and Teletalk) operator that there is a CRS where only their customers can agreement with that operator get the message - End users may not open the message, automatically delete it, or think it is old - Slower process to reach a large volume of people Accessibility to - Need to collect end users - Necessary to collect the - No subscription required - This is not required – demand users numbers or use – time targeted end users numbers based information consuming and expensive - Keep updated numbers Targeted - Specific messages can be - Geographically specific areas - Cell towers may not coincide - Can be targeted to different - The services is now very information sent to different end users can be sent the warning based on with areas at risk users through different options general cell towers - Cannot send specific messages to specific end users Awareness - End users can require - Need to make people aware - Voice based and beep alert – - Lack of awareness about this - Need to know about the - Need to initiate the call - high training for message enough to subscribe increase awareness type of mobile service message – high awareness awareness required interpretation technology required Message size - The message can hold more - Requires simple message - Automatic scroll message, the - Short message (limited - Voice based (Bangla) – easier - No English version to cater for and content characters than a CBS style to aid understanding end user does not have to open the characters) to understand tourists message - Currently the message cannot - Capacity to include larger - Information provided now is be sent in Bangla volume of information general - Currently a scroll message - Time consuming to get the could be a pop up full screen information you need – go message through many options - Should utilize a special tone - Message length - costly but not currently in place Two way - Possible for the end user to - Cannot know if the end users - Not yet possible - Track how many people are communication send the provider a message actually opened, read and using the service - Can provide other understood the message information at different stages of the disaster Message - The message is usually just - Message stays on the end users frequency sent once screen for as long as required Multiple - SMS will not reach everyone - Link to other services – communication - need a back up in place SMS/CBS channel Cost of services - Opportunities to use CSR to - Costly to send each local level - More costly than SMS - Similar to SMS - End users currently need to reduce the cost end user a message for the (approx. 4 times more) for the pay for the service providers providers Infrastructure - Possibilities for network - Possible time lags from one - Doesn’t require any changes in - Reliant on electricity and requirements blockage district to another the current infrastructure like internet connection to upload - Cell towers need updating CBS messages to the server - Technical problems can cause shut down

Mobile services characteristics for flood early warning in Bangladesh 60

CHAPTER 6

Characteristics of the flash flood communities

The purpose of this chapter is to explain the current characteristics of the flash flood communities. The findings from the FGDs and KIIs at field level are presented while additional information from secondary data is available in Appendix J. The chapter reveals how the findings on the community characteristics could influence the communication procedure using mobile services. This chapter leads to the answering of research question 4.

6.1. Elements at risk (exposure)

It is important to know the communities exposure to flash floods and their elements at risk, to gain an understanding of their vulnerability. It was found that the communities are frequently exposed to flash floods between April and June. The main elements at risk found from the FGD’s were relating to agriculture (boro rice crop), infrastructure (embankments), household assets and damages to social assets (schools, mosques). This finding shows that there is a lot at risk and that the community is aware the risks, which may make them more likely to respond to a warning.

It was clear from the field visits that the study areas (Solukabad, Jagaddal and Surma) are protected by submersible embankments and have a limited road network. The submersible embankments delay the flood water by approximately 15 to 20 days allowing farmers to harvest the boro rice and are often used as roads before submersion. The embankments are the responsibility of BWDB to rebuild and maintain after flash floods but it was clear from the communities that this is not always done. For this reason, they try to take community based preparations, protecting their crops by strengthening the embankments themselves with locally available materials to delay the flow of water into the haors. Additionally, yearly changes in the channels, roads, erosion, and blockages, affect the characteristics of the haor system increasing its vulnerability to flash floods and make transportation more difficult.

The elements at risk within the participants’ communities were identified. No significant differences were found between the groups or study areas, although FGDs in Uttar Sreepur did not identify the embankments, as these were not directly protecting them. All

Flood warning communication using mobile services in flash flood communities of Bangladesh 61

communities had experienced the impacts of flash floods and were aware of the risks. The farmers discussed that 70 to 80% of their crops (boro rice crop), the embankment, livestock, and their homesteads at the lowlands and at the riverbank are at risk from flash floods. This was confirmed from the informal discussions where the community showed the areas of the riverbank where homes and the land were washed away by the floods. The women’s group talked about their daily livelihood (cooking facilities) and food security, infrastructure and health being at risk. From the discussions with the fishermen, it was clear that the fisher’s trade was not at risk from flash flood but many fishers’ also own land and for this reason their crops are at risk. The UDMC members talked about the vulnerable areas including the cultivatable land (from soil erosion), school and mosque. In the FGD at Surma the participants were found to be more aware of the risk to their children’s education, drinking water, pregnant women and young children (most vulnerable). This could be explained from the presence of the NGO led project (VARD). See figure 6.1 for the boro rice crop and the submersible embankment (also used as a road).

Figure 6.1 Boro rice crop and submergible embankment (identified elements at risk)

Overall from each FGD it is clear that the communities are greatly exposed to flash floods and boro rice crop is the main element at risk from flash flooding which has limited protection from embankments. The participants were able to identify the vulnerable elements showing their knowledge of the risk and awareness of the elements that need to be protected. Overall the findings show that the communities have a lot to lose from flash flood where boro rice crop is the main element at risk, confirmed by other studies also in Sunamganj (ADB, 2006; CNRS 2008). This finding shows that the communities may be more inclined to respond to a warning message because of the benefits it could hold for protecting the rice crop.

6.2. Past experiences

If a community has had past experiences with flash flooding, then the knowledge gained from these experiences can strengthen their ability to cope with the impacts again. The results show that the participants have a lot of experiences with flash floods and could easily recall the damages caused by them showing their awareness.

In Solukabad, the participants talked about the most recent flash flood event of 2012 when flash floods damaged crops, destroyed 12 and damaging 24 homesteads, destroyed boats and

Characteristics of the flash flood communities 62

also some local industries (sand and stone quarry) were impacted. The participants confirmed the impacts of the 2010 flash floods, emphasising that 90% of their crops were damaged along with damages to embankments, homesteads, seedlings and trees. The participants in the FGD’s at Jagaddal Union and Surma also talked about the impacts of the 2010 flash flood where up to 95% of their crops were damaged (those harvested and in the field), along with damages to the embankments and seedlings. The community in Jagaddal also experienced flash floods in 2004 and 2012. In Uttar Sreepur, the participants talked about the impacts of the 2004 flash flood where crops were damaged along with their homesteads. An informative participant recalled that 1974 famine was caused by a severe flash flood in the area where all the crops, livestock and homesteads were destroyed. The results provided by the FGD participants within each study area reflected quite well the information found on the impact of the flash floods as recorded for Sunamganj, see Appendix J (CNRS, 2008). Although the communities have experience with flash floods, they have no experience in receiving flash flood warnings, as discussed in Chapter 4. This could cause problems for making them understand the value of such warnings compared to that which they currently have.

6.3. Preparedness and coping mechanisms

A community will be less vulnerable to the impacts of flash flooding if they have preparedness mechanisms in place before the floods and know how to react. It was found from the FGDs that traditional coping mechanisms are used before, during and after events to protect their livelihoods. Additionally the results found that there is knowledge held within the community, however, these actions were not commonly found across each FGD.

The communities are involved in risk reduction techniques each year to protect themselves. These measures include raising the plinth level of their homestead each year, strengthening the riverbanks with bamboo fencing (see figure 6.2), planting water plants (clacilla sholkolmi) in May to protect their villages against erosion, or creating mini embankments with available materials such as bamboo. These preparation activities can greatly improve the communities’ resistance to flooding and the communities should be aware of these risk-reducing activities.

Figure 6.2 Homestead increased plinth level and bamboo sheeting at the river bank (community preparedness measures)

Flood warning communication using mobile services in flash flood communities of Bangladesh 63

The results on the traditional coping mechanisms of the participants in the FGD, before, during and after a flood event, are shown in table 6.1. The groups discussed taking these actions during their previous flash flood experiences. The participants talked about taking pre flood measures, which reflected their current response actions (as discussed in Chapter 4). The post flood mechanisms are focusing on survival and finding some way to get their lives back in shape. It was found that the women participants in the FGDs focused more the household preparations compared to the farmer participants, who were more concerned about their livelihood preparations including protecting the crops and livestock. The woman group in Jagaddal were found to lack any knowledge on these coping mechanisms, saying that they just listen to people talk about flash floods but do nothing.

Table 6.1 FGD results on the traditional coping mechanisms used by the participants

PRE FLOOD DURING FLOOD POST FLOOD

x Prepare themselves mentally for x Collect crops above or under the x Continue to borrow money from the impacts water by boat NGO’s and money lenders x Prepare homesteads – move assets x Move cooking stove on to the bed x Migrate to cities for work to higher place x Make a floating boat with banana x Change occupation e.g. farmers x Harvest as much of their crops as tree for their livestock and place work in the sand and stone possible plants on it x Sell their cattle and land x Shift livestock to higher ground x Borrow money from NGO x Plant seedlings once the water has x Repair embankment (women do this for their receded x Help others to engage in husbands) or from money lenders x Rebuild homes further away from preparations e.g. fishers help the at high interest the river bank farmers x Go to the relief centre and get x Stock dry food (chira mari) basic food e.g. maize x Store important documents, x Go to the flood shelter if water is candles, firebox and medicine. above their bed level (elite can x Protect the embankment buy higher beds) x Harvest fodder x Try to keep livestock alive (by x Observe the water level rise feeding grass roots) x Build a macha (bamboo float) x Go to the flood shelter x Prepare a removable stove for cooking

This was important to identify because this information could be linked to warning messages in the form of guidance information or the provision of additional risk preparedness/coping information. These coping mechanisms and response actions were found to be similar in other studies in both riverine and flash flood prone areas (Shah et al., 2012; USAID, 2008; ADB, 2006). However, in the flash flood area the greater emphasis is placed on protecting the embankments to delay the water and give time for harvesting the crops. Although the results in every group showed that some of the above mentioned response activities and coping mechanisms were taken, it was felt during the discussions that this knowledge of preparedness and response actions could be better spread and improved. Although the communities may be aware of the measures they can take, it is important to provide reminders and communicate this to them. The access to this information could be achieved through mobile services. Therefore the fact that these mechanisms are present in the community is positive, however the challenge posed for warning communication is that not everyone knows these mechanisms that can aid their response.

Characteristics of the flash flood communities 64

6.4. Risk awareness

The higher the awareness of the community about the risks associated with flash floods, their timing and potential impacts, and the potential protection measures, the more likely they are to take protective action. It was clear from the FGDs that participants were very aware of the timing of the flash floods, the elements at risk and how they can try to protect themselves against these risks, as discussed in the above sections. It was felt that the awareness in general very high but in one woman’s FGD in Jagaddal the awareness was lower. This high awareness could mean that more people will demand warnings using mobile services and will be more willing to be involved with the process that provides them this information e.g. subscription or calling IVR. However, it is a challenge to make sure that those who are less aware also have access to the information.

A quantification of this level of awareness was not completed in the study areas; rather a general impression on how the respondents were answering the questions was assessed, see figure 6.3. It was felt that there were higher levels of risk awareness in the women groups with NGO led projects where they were more engaged with the discussions on their preparedness and coping mechanisms. The VARD project area (Surma) had an information centre with posters on different contingency and emergency measures that they can take for flooding and Caritas study area (Uttar Sreepur) had a similar community centre. As part of the disaster risk reduction projects in these communities, raising awareness about the risks they are exposed to and how they can manage them is a key component. Furthermore the farmers and fisher-farmers were particularly aware of their past experiences and damages dues to flash floods. Contrary to this, it was felt that the awareness was very low among the women group in Jagaddal Union, where there was a lack of responsive answers reflecting a lack of knowledge in the risks and preparedness measures associated with flash floods. The result could be associated with the group’s expression of their dependence on their husbands for coping with flash floods.

Figure 6.3 Results of the focus group discussion participants risk awareness (number out of 10)

The general level high awareness found in the field reflects that of the ADPC study (2009a), however, no information was found on how this compared between different groups. This high level of risk awareness can be utilised in creating an effective flash flood early warning system, increasing the chance that the end users respond to the information.

Flood warning communication using mobile services in flash flood communities of Bangladesh 65

6.5. Social networks and ties

The social networks and ties available with a community are very important in understanding their vulnerability and the ways to utilise these networks for warning communication and encouraging the community to use the services. From the KIIs, strong links were identified between the Imams, Ansar and village police, teachers, agricultural officers, PIC members, microfinance groups and information centres, with the community and could play a significant role in warning dissemination. It was found that there is a willingness to help and share information among the groups with each other and this offers an opportunity to utilise these networks for warning dissemination using mobile services but also a challenge to sustainably engage them to do so.

Institutional networks like the local government (Union Parishad) and the UDMC members are an important network available within the community, especially when they are equipped with enough resources and are sufficiently mobilised to respond in disaster situations. It was found that the Imams have a good connection with the community people and the facilities to disseminate information to them. The Ansar and Village Police are present at the community level and accountable to the government to enforce the law. Furthermore, the Ansar have volunteer networks at the community level for use in emergency situations. School teachers play an important role in educating the children but also connecting with the children’s mothers. The sub assistant agriculture office (SAAO) responsible for advising agricultural matters has a strong link with the farmer groups. Organised farmer meetings are held each week to discuss their concerns and additionally a volunteer group at each Union is used during any disaster. Figure 6.4 shows the KIIs with the SAAO and school teacher.

Figure 6.4 Key informant interviews with a SAAO officer and a school teacher

It was informed that the community can access Internet, fax, email, camera and other services including processing official forms, governmental notifications, mobile banking and passport processing through the Union Information Service Centre (UISC) at each union. From the KIIs it was clear that the community used the UISC on a regular basis.

Characteristics of the flash flood communities 66

The microfinance groups were identified to play an important role in the community especially for the women where groups were formed at village level. The women participants in the FGD spoke about utilising these and also the farmers spoke of getting their wives to access the loans for them, from these groups. Another important network identified is the project implementation committee (PIC), responsible to construct and repair the embankments of BWDB. PICs are found at the community level and have strong connections with community providing materials (soil/sand) to the community people in the repair of the embankments.

It was identified during the FGDs that these networks, see figure 6.5, are present and can hold valuable opportunities for penetrating warning related information and awareness raising activities at the community level. They are knowledgeable, connected and utilised by the community and could act as a facilitator for increasing the social performance of warning dissemination using mobile services.

Additionally, a community response action identified during the FGDs was that people help each other to respond. However, the participants in the FGD talked about not being able to help their neighbours respond to the flash floods because they needed to attend to their own family’s needs first. In all of the FGDs participants said that they share information with their family and neighbours. These findings show the strong link the households have with each other and their unity in protecting the community from the risks. This connection is very important for the effective spread of warning information in the community. This connection could be transferred if mobile services are used for warning dissemination where the end users would spread the information rather than holding it to themselves. This could be an important factor for the IVR service that currently has a cost to the end user.

Figure 6.5 Identified social networks available in the community

Flood warning communication using mobile services in flash flood communities of Bangladesh 67

6.6. Beliefs and motivation

This factor has the ability to affect the communication and response to flash flood warnings because if people’s beliefs are low and they lack a motivation for improvements, it would be expected that they would be more likely to reject a warning. The findings from some FGDs showed that people can feel defenceless when faced with a flood while others lacked the belief that it was possible to predict the flood. However, the participants were interested in improving their situation, especially the younger participants. These findings pose both challenges in changing these beliefs and this motivation offers opportunities for communication of warnings.

It was found in a number of FGDs that the participants felt powerless and helpless to confront the flash flooding impacts. The words ‘nothing to do’ were mentioned by the participants expressing that regardless of the actions they take to protect themselves and their crops, the usefulness of these actions is low. Once the flash floods arrive they destroy their livelihoods and they have no option but to deal with this and try and rebuild their lives. In addition to this, it was found that there was a lack of belief that it is possible to predict flash floods ‘water level rises very suddenly, how can you predict?’. This shows that it is important to increase the communities’ awareness on how to interpret warning messages and on how to make preparations for response in order for them to believe the message.

There are social leaders/trustworthy people in the community as identified in section 6.5 (teacher, Imam, Union Parishad, police) and if trained could make a difference in changing their attitude and the beliefs, norms, rules of the community. These can encourage and motivate the community to prepare for the floods and respond even if it can just save minimum things. However contrary to this, it was identified during the FGDs that all participants were interested in improving the community’s situation and in particular the younger generation were very enthusiastic about finding ways to reduce the communities risk of flash flooding.

6.7. Trust and awareness of institutions

The familiarity that the end users have with the information source can affect their response and therefore their awareness of current and potential sources of warning information was identified. The findings showed that the level of trust and awareness that the community has for local government (Union Parishad and Union Chairman) was high. Additionally it was found that people were aware of BWDB and unaware of FFWC except in Jagaddal Union. This high awareness of BWDB offers an opportunity for their effective engagement in warning dissemination resulting from their strong connection to the farmers and the embankments. However, a challenge lies in improving the awareness of the FFWC, if the warnings are being sent directly from these sources, as is done with the IVR service.

The FGD participants talked about receiving flash flood information from the UP in the past but only when a flash flood had occurred elsewhere. From the discussions it was clear that there is a good connection and level of trust between the Union Parishad and the community. In all FGDs the communities were aware of BWDB because of the submergible embankments they construct and repair. However, some talked about knowing the name BWDB but not

Characteristics of the flash flood communities 68

knowing about their activities. Some members of the community are also involved with constructing the embankments as part of the PIC and would therefore be aware of BWDB. Although none of the participants knew about FFWC, in the FGDs at Jagaddal with the UDMC they had heard about it before but did not know what it did. The reason they were aware was because the warning messages they are receiving through RIMES are given by FFWC so they recognised the name. Additionally, although the community was not aware of the FFWC they were not against receiving information from them (discussed further in Chapter 7).

6.8. Individual social characteristics

There are a number of social characteristics, influencing the communities’ vulnerability that can affect the effectiveness of warning communication and the response of the community to a warning. With regards age, it was felt that the older participants had more knowledge on past flash floods but were less educated, while the younger generation were more enthusiastic about technology being integrated in the community and were better educated. It was found that income level and gender can affect the response to flash floods. These are challenges for a warning message to address.

Women are among the poorest in the rural areas especially if they are the sole heads of the households where they can suffer discrimination and have few earning opportunities. The results from the FGD in Jagaddal with one women group, found that the women fail to take responsive actions because they are relying on their husbands for this. It is important to mobilise females to engage with preparations and response actions themselves. From 23 to 32 % of the population in each union is in chronic poverty (BBS, 2011), indicating that income is low. The school teacher in Solukabad Union talked about the community people having a lack of income to pay for labour to harvest their crops, constraining their response actions.

6.9. Occupation

The occupation of the communities can hold important influencing factors for their response to warnings. Through the FGDs and KIIs it was found that farmers, the key livelihood group, face a number of constraints affecting how they can respond to a warning. Availability and cost of labour, maturity level of the crops, materials to protect embankments and a lack of transportation were discussed as their constraints. Additionally, it was found that different occupation groups could respond in a conflicting manner. These factors could prove significant challenges for the success of warning messages, even if they are received and understood, these situational constraints can prevent a response. However, because the farmers have so much at risk this offers an opportunity to encourage a response to the warning.

The occupational sectors available to rural inhabitants of Bangladesh consist mostly of agriculture, industry and services. It was found that if farmers harvest their immature crops and a flash flood does not occur then they risk losing vital money. Additionally, the farmers may not have access to labour to harvest all their crops meaning only a portion of their crops can be collected from the field. These points rose during the FGDs with the farmers. The SAAO in Solukabad Union added to this by saying that a lack of transportation facilities

Flood warning communication using mobile services in flash flood communities of Bangladesh 69

including boats and roads constrain the farmers from collecting their crops in addition to a lack of labour and machines to harvest their crops and a lack of materials to protect the embankment. It was raised in the FGDs that, boat ownership could greatly aid their response, there was discussion that others were able to collect their harvest under the water with a boat.

Meetings with the different institutions at district level identified that there is conflict between fishermen and farmers. On occasions embankment cuttings have been made by fishers to allow flood water to catch fish at the cost of crop damage. This information was not found during the FGDs, however the farmers group in Solukabad did talk about embankment cuttings happening secretly at night by unknown people. The reason being to reduce the impact of floods on the others land not for fishing. This could cause problems for communicating warnings to everyone, inflicting such behaviour.

6.10. Education

Education level is an important factor to think about for the design of a warning communication system using mobile services. As discussed in Chapter 5, mobile services can pose many difficulties for the less educated to understand the messages. The findings showed that the education attainment level in the study areas was low, especially among the older participants. Therefore, it is crucial that this challenge is strongly considered in the development of early warning messages.

The average literacy is 32% over the four unions (BBS, 2011) and the participants in the FGD’s ability to read and write was found to largely agree with this. Although the literacy is low, the younger participants were found to have good education levels and some even spoke English. The education or literacy level of the communities can influence their susceptibility to flash flooding. This is because the community members that cannot read or write may struggle in understanding or interpreting a warning message, if and when received either through mobile services or otherwise. Therefore this finding confirms that this is an important point to address in when designing warning communication using mobile services to these communities.

6.11. Environmental and social cues

This factor can have an influence on the end users’ response causing them to wait for signs from the environment or the society to initiate their response. In the FGDs some points were discussed that could influence this. The communities have a lack of warning experience and are relying on indigenous knowledge or waiting for the signs of the flash flood to arrive before they respond. This could prove a significant challenge for the effective communication and response to warnings. The community may wait until they can see these cues, either the flash flood occurring or the neighbours responding, before they themselves decide to respond to a warning.

As discussed in Chapter 4, it was found in the FGDs and KIIs that the communities are either relying on indigenous knowledge for advances warnings of flash floods or they are waiting to hear from the TV, news or neighbours about the occurrence of a flash flood in a nearby haor. The communities are used to waiting and watching for some indication to understand that

Characteristics of the flash flood communities 70

danger is at their doorstep e.g. embankment breach, very high water levels or rainfall. For these reasons the community is reliant on watching environmental cues and are used to reacting when they see these. Because of the lack of official warnings, the community may also wait to see their neighbours taking actions to prepare for the floods. It was discussed in the FGDs that the communities respond by coming together with the other members of the community to protect the embankments. This could mean that the community would wait until they saw others responding in this way before they do. Therefore, these social and environmental cues are dominating when there is no formal warning and could influence how people respond to a formal warning lacking these cues.

6.12. Mobile services availability

In order to address the possible use of mobile services as a risk communication mode it is fundamental to understand the availability of mobile phones within the community. The results from the FGDs found that 46% to 64% of the participants owned mobile phones and 85% to 90% of households in the study areas had access to mobile phones. It was also found that participants primarily owned regular phones and used them for the calling not texting function. Results show the high accessibility of the communities to mobile phones, revealing a huge opportunity for the effective communication of warnings through this medium.

Furthermore, the results were grouped in the women, farmer and fisher-farmer groups showing that the average participant ownership in the women’s group was 46% and both the farmer and fisher-farmer group was 64%. These results are high and comparable to the national mobile phone usage of 66% (BTRC, 2013) showing that using mobile services as a dissemination mode will achieve a high level of penetration to the household level. The participants in the FGDs owned mostly regular phones, however in three of the FGDs, two of which were UDMC groups, some limited participants owned smart phones. The younger members of the groups owned these. The electricity supply in the unions varies from Solukabad (23.7%), Jagaddal (39.4%), Uttar Sreepur (25.5%) and Surma (39.2%) (BBS, 2011). This is important for access to television and for charging mobile phones (however this was found to be done at a local shop by solar power) for warning dissemination.

Flood warning communication using mobile services in flash flood communities of Bangladesh 71

6.13. Identified implications for effective warning communication using mobile services

From the FGD’s results it is clear that the identified community characteristics pose many implications, both positive and negative for the development of an effective warning communication service using mobile services. These form the conclusions for the chapter and the answer to research question 4.

6.13.1. Positive influencing factors x The communities identified that there is a lot at risk within the haor, particularly the boro rice crop. Therefore the potential value of an early warning is high. x The communities have many experiences with flash flood events, a good knowledge of the damages caused by them, and the coping and response mechanisms used to manage them. This knowledge and awareness holds very strong for implementing a warning system. x Strong social networks were identified between the Imams, Ansar and village police, teachers, agricultural officers, PIC members, microfinance groups and information centres, with the community. These could play a significant role in awareness raising and warning dissemination. x The community themselves were found to have good social ties where they help each other during the response activities and share information. Additionally the participants were interested in improving their situation, especially the younger participants. x The accessibility of mobile phones was found to be up to 85% of households (ownership up to 65%) making warning dissemination using mobile services a suitable option. x The level of trust and awareness that the community has for the local government (Union Parishad and Union Chairman) was found to be high in the study areas. Additionally the awareness of BWDB was high offering an opportunity for engaging them in warning dissemination. x As for occupation, farmers are at the most risk and therefore expected to be more interested in receiving warning information. Additionally, the younger generation were found to be enthusiastic about using technology.

6.13.2. Negative influencing factors x The communities have no experience in receiving formal warnings. x Not everyone is aware of the possible response and coping mechanisms. A particularly low awareness was found within the women’s group in Jagaddal union and it is therefore a challenge to engage such groups with warning communication and response.

Characteristics of the flash flood communities 72

x There is limited awareness of FFWC among the communities and this is necessary to increase if warnings are to be sent directly from them to the end users. x There are beliefs held within the community that it is not possible to predict the flash floods and that no response action will be beneficial. x The social characteristics revealed that a low income affects the community’s ability to respond, being unable to pay for labour to harvest crops. Additionally this combined with the poor availability of labour limit the farmers’ possible response actions. x The poor literacy levels (approx. 32%) can greatly affect the understanding of warnings. x The reliance of the end users on cues such as waiting for signs like water level rise or embankment breach’s and for neighbours to take action could influence ones response to flood warnings by waiting for these cues and ignoring the warning.

Together the identified implications show that warning communication mobile services does have the potential to be integrated in the community but requires some attention to be paid the communities characteristics that will influence its effectiveness.

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CHAPTER 7

Community requirements for warning communication using mobile services

This chapter presents the needs assessment results from the community level FGDs and KIIs for flash flood early warning communication using mobile services. The warning characteristics, message content, style, mode, source and dissemination pathway were assessed. This was combined with a demonstration of three modes of mobile services (SMS, CBS and IVR) to further assess the warning and mobile services characteristics. This chapter leads to the answering of research question 5.

7.1. Message content

7.1.1. General message content

The focus group discussions (FGDs) and key informant interviews (KIIs) at the field level revealed that there is a demand for flash flood information in the communities. The demand for warning information does not vary significantly between study areas and user groups. The type of the information required is presented below; x Hazard i.e. that flash flood may/will occur x Current and forecasted water levels at a nearby river x Past, present and forecasted rainfall information in a qualitative way i.e. heavy rainfall and in particular for the cross-border upstream catchments x Potential areas at risk from the flash flood referring to the local area i.e. the Union name, Upazila and District including potentially affected haors and embankments within these areas x Preparatory guidance information suggesting e.g. ‘secure livestock and assets’, ‘protect yourself’, ‘be careful’ ‘protect the embankment’ and ‘harvest crops’

7.1.2. Message content using mobile services

During the demonstrations of the different messages on mobile services (see figure 7.1) further information on the needs in a warning message was found. The additional information requested in the message compared to the list above (general message content) included:

Community requirements for warning communication using mobile services 74

x Time to impact of the flood x If the water level has reached Danger Level at nearby river etc.

The messages demonstrated on SMS, CBS and IVR were found to lack sufficient localised information and some messages e.g. CBS showed something not relevant to flash flooding for the communities. However, the message content of CBS and IVR was preferred over SMS because both contained more information, referring to the danger level of the river and showing the current and expected water level (in the case of CBS). Furthermore, the participants required preparatory guidance information, which was not available in any of the messages. Their needs signified that requirements for flash flood communities are different and more information is required compared to riverine flood affected communities on which the SMS and CBS messages were based. These requirements were also reflected when interviewing the key informants. See table 7.1 for an overview of the results on SMS, CBS and IVR message content.

Solukabad 20-May-2013 14:05 ++

+ refers to a increase in water level of a nearby river

by one hat (22cm) in the next 24 hours

Option 5: Flood forecast Welcome to the Flood Forecasting and Warning Centre. Today, Wednesday, May 08 2013, according to the information of 6 o clock the Khowai River at Balla point is flowing 43cm above the danger level and

all other rivers in the country are flowing normally.

Figure 7.1 Demonstration messages used in the focus group discussions and key informant interviews for SMS, CBS and IVR

Flood warning communication using mobile services in flash flood communities of Bangladesh 75

Short Messaging Service (SMS) The results showed that the plus (+) symbol did not hold enough information for the participants. They additionally wanted qualitative rainfall information and for the areas at risk to be more specified through including the haor name. The participants suggested improving the message by including the nearby river name, cross-border upstream catchment rainfall, relating the water level to a danger level at the river and providing preparatory guidance information.

Cell Broadcasting Service (CBS) The CBS message was preferred over the SMS because it incorporated more information, including stating the danger level and the current water level. However, the participants wanted qualitative rainfall information to be included and mentioned that the message does not tell the time until the flash flood would occur. The participants suggested improving this message by stating more clearly the local areas at risk (river, haor, area) and to provide preparatory guidance information suggesting actions like ‘you are risk do not fish’, ‘secure livestock and assets’ and ‘protect embankment and crops’ to be included.

Interactive Voice Response (IVR) The IVR service allows for a lot more information to be stored in the message because it has different possible options and it is voice based, compared to an SMS or CBS. This advantage was recognised in all the FGDs and in the KIIs. Preparatory guidance information was again required in the message as for SMS and CBS. Similarly to SMS and CBS, the communities wanted more localised information. It was felt that the information provided was very general and country wide. For example, during the time of the FGDs information was being provided on cyclone Mahansen, in addition to the message on floods. The participants liked this and thought that such a message would be good relating to flash floods.

The potential different types of useful information, as part of the IVR service, were investigated during the KIIs. The informants agreed that flood preparedness information would be beneficial and could be provided through the service. The sub assistant agricultural officer (SAAO) said that few people in the community have knowledge about flood preparedness and would require training in order to know what to do. However, he did add that he already provides flood preparedness information to the farming community. The SAAO suggested that agricultural information could be provided as part of a separate dial option. The microfinance group manager suggested having regular weather information available during the winter so that the service is used all year round. This finding supports the current inclusion of this information.

Similar improvements in the messages were discussed in all the FGDs including stating the water level, areas at risk and providing guidance information. Rainfall information was mentioned in all, except two FGDs, however the participants that requested rainfall information stressed that this was very important information for them to have. As discussed in Chapter 4, the communities were found to be mainly dependant on indigenous knowledge, primarily linked to heavy rainfall in the Meghalaya Hills. This need for rainfall information shows how critical it is in their ability to determine the onset of flash floods.

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Table 7.1 FGD and KII results on the message content in SMS, CBS and IVR

SMS CBS IVR Advantages x Simple message content x More information provided x More information than than SMS incl. danger SMS/CBS level, current water level and the expected rise x Voice based Disadvantages x No rainfall information x No rainfall information x Rainfall information is in a x Union is large and x Time to occurrence of the different option to flood information could be more event is not clear information specific because the effects x Information is general could vary x The lead time was not clearly stated (integrated with the + sign meaning) x The Danger Level is not stated x Local river name should be referred to Suggested x State the river name in the x Include rainfall information x State that there is a improvements message x State the local river name in possibility of flash flood x State the haor name/ refer to the message and estimated time to the embankment x State the haor name impact x Include rainfall forecast x State local area name x Local rainfall information upstream x Provide guidance and upstream catchment x Relate to the Danger Level information e.g. you are rainfall (Meghalaya of a local river risk do not fish, secure mountain) x Provide guidance livestock and assets, x Include local area Union, information protect embankment and Upazila and District name crops at risk and haors at risk x Include guidance information e.g. harvest crops, protect embankment, store assets

Guidance information was found to be an important element in the warning message being requested in all FGDs. The participants said that during previous events they receive information to protect embankments, harvest crops etc. so it is no wonder that they would want this in a warning message too. The participants suggested that guidance information should be focused on protecting crops and facilitating others in protecting embankments. This request reflects the importance of the elements at risk in the community and also shows the importance of the social ties between the community members in coping with the situation, as was identified in the communities’ characteristics (Chapter 6). Furthermore this compliments the findings of Shah et al. (2012), where it was found that those who received guidance information used this to prepare themselves for the impacts of the flooding (riverine).

Another point rose by the communities, was to explicitly know that there is or could be a flash flood where none of the messages clearly indicated this. The participants gave an example of raising their voice while saying ‘flash flood will come’ indicating that these were some of the most important words to be said in the message. This result was likely because this is the information that they are used to receiving about flash floods, where they find out that a flash flood has occurred elsewhere. Additionally using these words makes it clear what is going to

Flood warning communication using mobile services in flash flood communities of Bangladesh 77

happen, rather than representing it in terms of water levels or rainfall, however they also requested this information.

A surprising result was that the participants did not ask for warning information to be related to a local easily recognisable object such as the mosque or an embankment to represent the hazard. Additionally, when the rivers flood they are difficult to distinguish from water bodies so it would make sense to have the water level referring to something that is not submerged. However, they just asked for information on the river water level and to know if certain areas were at risk, for instance the embankment. Additionally, it was expected that they would just want to know when the embankment would be overtopped. However, this was not mentioned and the participants seemed to be content knowing that the embankments were at risk. This result could be a consequence of the lack of experience that the community has in receiving warning and messages contained within and would require further research.

7.1.3. Lead time

Overall the findings show that lead times of up to 20 days are required to effectively complete response actions, primarily for harvesting crops. Shorter lead times (1 to 3 days) were found to be sufficient for household level response and for the UDMC activities. Short lead times (2 to 6 hours) were useful for minor response activities but would not be completed as successfully compared with longer lead times, see table 7.2 below.

Table 7.2 Possible response actions for the given lead time

7 – 20 DAYS 1 – 3 DAYS 2 – 6 HOURS x Harvest all the crops x Repair and strengthen x Protect leakage in embankment x Activities from (1- 3 days lead embankment x Shift valuables time) but can perform more x Shift family members safe place x Store dry food successfully x Increase level of beds x Pray to Allah x Start harvesting any crops that they can (~25%) x Move harvested crops to higher ground x Shift livestock to safe place x Store dry food and fuel

It was found that all three community level user groups (farmers, fisher-farmers and women) in at least one FGD, felt that lead times of with either, 1 to 20 days, 1 to 3 days or 2 to 6 hours were useful, see figure 7.2. All farmer groups and one fisher-farmer group required 7 to 20 days to effectively harvest all their crops. This is due to the shape of the haor where different areas are cultivated, ripen and are harvested at different times. Therefore, in order for the farmers to collect all their crops they need this time to allow the immature crops in the low lying areas to mature before harvesting. Two women’s groups, expressed concerns over their husband’s crops because this is the main source of income for their household, therefore requesting this amount of time.

At both UDMC meetings it was agreed that 1 to 3 days lead time was enough to carry out preparation activities including warning message dissemination. Jagaddal UDMC was currently receiving a 3 day warning for flash floods (RIMES-FFWC pilot) and agreed that it is sufficient. Other groups (2 farmer, 1 fisher-farmer and 1 women’s) felt that this time would

Community requirements for warning communication using mobile services 78

be useful but the actions that they could take would be less effective than with longer lead times. It was found in a women’s, farmer and fisher-farmer group that 2 to 6 hours lead time was sufficient for household level preparations and protecting the embankment. These results were expected as other studies have linked the requirement of famers for long lead times (ADB, 2006; USAID, 2008; ADPC, 2009a).

Figure 7.2 Identified lead time of interest to the community per user group (% out of 12)

7.1.4. Message accuracy

The topic of the accuracy of the warning information was raised in three focus group discussions, two FGDs (women and farmers) in Solukabad and the UDMC meeting in Jagaddal. There was a mixed reaction among the community participants. Some said if the message was inaccurate the first time, they would still trust the message again, however, some said they would not. Whereas, the UDMC participants said that they would trust the message again if it was wrong. It happened in Jagaddal that RIMES provided them a message about a possible flash flood and this did not occur. The UDMC participants felt that this would not affect their belief in the next message and it did not cause any problems. From the discussions with the key informants, it was suggested that the provider should tell the end users if the information provided was wrong and why, in order to maintain their trust the next time around. They agreed that it was just a prediction and might not always be accurate. The SAAO added that he felt that the farmers would understand if the flash flood information was inaccurate and would not lose trust. These results were more positive than expected but could be explained by the huge damages experienced in the past by the communities, where they are willing to accept false alarms if there is a chance that it can protect their livelihood.

Overall these results on message content (including lead time and accuracy) show that the communities want a lot of information, including water level, rainfall, areas at risk, time to impact. IVR has to meet these needs as it can hold more information, including guidance information and explain the information more clearly through voice, which is more difficult in a CBS or SMS.

Flood warning communication using mobile services in flash flood communities of Bangladesh 79

7.2. Message style

7.2.1. General message style

The message style including the use of particular words, symbols or abbreviations can have an effect on the end users understanding and interpretation of the message. During the FGD’s the participants expressed their desire to have the language of the messages in Bangla rather than in English, as expected. However, due to the limitations of the mobile phone handsets to provide Bangla messages, the participants still expressed interest in receiving messages in a mix of English and Bangla (i.e. no Bangla symbols) because some were able to understand these messages if not, felt that they could find someone that does to interpret the message.

7.2.2. Mobile services message style

Results on demonstration of the SMS, CBS and IVR messages (figure 7.1) showed the huge potential for IVR with a Bangla voice based message, to meet the need of the users. The message styles were more complex for SMS and CBS where symbols and abbreviations are used to aid understanding for the illiterate and because of a limited message size. Both CBS and SMS are in English and text based resulting in difficulties for those that are less educated to understand. Therefore, the SMS and CBS messages must use a style where the community is trained, so they can easily interpret the messages upon delivery. The symbol format of the SMS was liked and communities were willing to learn how to interpret it. It was clear that the communities wanted to have references to local measuring units (bighat) and could not understand centimetres. See table 7.3 for an overview of the results for each mobile service.

Short messaging service (SMS) The participants liked the idea of using the + symbol in the message to simply represent that the water level would rise one bighat in 24 hours. A suggestion was made to additionally say the lead time as well as the + symbol. Although being explained what the + symbol meant, it did not stick in their minds that it also included the lead time (24 hours). The local measuring unit of bighat was found to be too small to capture the depth of water level increase for flash floods. Suggestions were made use to hat (approx. 44cm) instead of bighat and more clearly stating the lead time in the message. Similar comments were made in all the FGDs in each study area, although the farmers were more vocal about the rapid rise of the water level.

Cell Broadcasting Service (CBS) In the CBS message the participants liked that the abbreviations provided more information than the symbols used in the SMS, but felt that they were more difficult to understand and remember. Although the abbreviations were in English the participants were still enthusiastic about receiving the message. They were happy to keep the translation card at home so they can remember the meaning of the message. The use of centimetres was disliked and only a few participants across all FGDs understood its meaning. For this reason they suggested using the local units like hat and bighat as in the SMS. The participants suggested improving the message by using words where ideally Bangla would be used, but a mix of Bangla and English would also be accepted. It was also suggested to integrate the + symbol, like was used in the SMS.

Community requirements for warning communication using mobile services 80

Interactive Voice Response (IVR) For IVR the communities liked that it contained more information and that they could listen to it and therefore understand it better. Improvements to the service focused on making the information more personal to them, including more local references. Improvements suggested were to combine the option for weather information with the option for flood warnings, into an option for flash flood or haor related information e.g. calling 10941 and pressing 6 for haor information. The participants also spoke about the number being quite long and difficult to remember, suggesting that a shorter one would be an improvement.

Table 7.3 FGD results on the message style in SMS, CBS and IVR

SMS CBS IVR Advantages x Simple message x Abbreviations contained x Can contain more x Symbol + is useful for those more information than the information than the that cannot read SMS SMS x Bighat is understandable x Understandable for those that x Voice based information – can read if they learn the easy to listen to meaning Disadvantages x The unit of bighat is too x Difficult to understand the x Might forget the long small abbreviations number x Message is in English x Abbreviations are in English x Lead time is not clear x Need to keep the translation card with you or at home to remember x Unit CM is not understood Suggested x Use hat instead of bighat x Use a mix of English and x Include more recognisable improvements x Use a mix of English and Bangla rather than local area names Bangla abbreviations x Separate option for haor x Improve the lead time x Use bighat (or hat) or related information representation feet/inches x Separate number for local x Integrate a symbol like the information SMS (+ sign) x Combine rainfall and flood information into one option

This result shows that the communities did like the use of symbols, to aid the understanding, but again strengthens the point that they require more information than these symbols are providing in the SMS or CBS, as discussed in the message content section above. It was expected that the communities would prefer the use of local languages for the measurement units, as this has proven popular in other districts (prone to monsoon floods) as part of the USAID (2008) pilot. However, it was not expected that the participants would require hat to be used instead of bighat. This is because it was found in the USAID (2008) study that the community felt that bighat was too large a measurement, to capture the water level rise. This shows the differences between requirements of the riverine and flash flood communities.

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7.3. Message communication mode

7.3.1. General message communication mode

In all of the different community FGDs and UDMC meetings, mobile phones were identified as a good mode for warning dissemination, see figure 7.3. Additionally, the mosque mike was also a very popular mode however, it was recognised that it cannot penetrate to the whole community. Other modes, which were liked, included television, siren, Internet and flag systems. From the results it is clear that participants chose warning communication modes that they are familiar with and use on a regular basis. Many communication modes were liked and mobile phone was their first preference. However, it was recognised that mobile phones should be used in combination with information from the mosque and the television, all of which are modes that are readily used in the community.

Mobile phones: In all of the different community FGDs and UDMC meetings for each user group, mobile phones were identified as a good mode for warning dissemination. The reasons for this being, they are available, a good way to get information when they are not at home, fast and will reach a lot of people. However, the participants did recognise that the messages could be difficult for some people to understand through mobile services. During each focus group participants were using their mobile phones, showing they play a key role in their daily activity. In each FGD this was the preferred mode except in one farmer FGD at Solukabad where the preferred mode was mosque miking. This result can be linked to the fact that this group was quite small (8 participants) and only half of that group owned a mobile phone compared to other groups where up to 64% of the group owned a mobile phone.

Mosque mike: The results found that the mosque mike was also a very popular mode among the participants, being identified in 10 FGDs. The participants liked this mode because it is available in the community and regularly used for information communication. It was not identified in two women’s FGDs (Solukabad and Surma), where the same FGD also did not identify the Imam as a good source of warning information. A possible explanation for this could be that they do not regularly visit the mosque. It was also recognised that the miking system does not penetrate to the whole community, which can lead to some members of the community missing the message.

During the KIIs, it was agreed that both mobiles and mosque miking were good modes of communication for the community, confirming the results from the FGD’s. Furthermore television, siren, Internet and flags were identified and are discussed further below.

Television: In three FGDs, two women’s (Solukabad and Uttar Sreepur) and one farmer (Solukabad) group, the participants liked this source because they used it for watching the news, some owned televisions, used their neighbours or watched it in the local bazaar. The low electricity connections (approx. 30%) and the limited availability and accessibility to televisions restrict the usefulness of this communication mode.

Siren: This was expressed in three community FGDs in Solukabad Union where CEGIS is planning to implement a siren system as part of their efforts in a flash flood early warning development (as discussed in Chapter 4). For this reason the participants were aware of sirens

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recognising it as a useful mode, although concerns were raised about its penetration distance within the community similarly to the mosque mike.

Flag: This was mentioned in one FGD at Uttar Sreepur Union, a participant in the women’s group noticed that a nearby village had a flag (as part of an NGO run project). It was felt that the flag could help those understand that cannot read if provided in different colours. A potential flag system was discussed in two other FGDs but the participants did not like this mode as it would be confusing. Additionally, it is reliant on a responsible flag hoister to interpret the warning and raise the flag and it has limited visibility at night.

Internet: This was expressed in one community FGD (Solukabad) and one UDMC meeting (Jagaddal) especially among the younger generation. The participants discussed that some people have access through their mobile phones and others at the local bazar, where the teenagers regularly use social media sites and at the UISC. This was an encouraging result for the penetration of Internet in the rural communities, however this was only mentioned in two FGDs and perhaps implies that penetration could still take quite some time to achieve.

Radio: This was found to be an unpopular mode for communication, however, in other areas of Bangladesh radio has been effectively used for warning communication. During the key informant interviewees it was discussed that the radio reception is very poor and that the community does not use it aside from a few people for listening to the news and songs.

Figure 7.3 Identified preferences for warning communication modes per user group (% out of 12)

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7.3.2. Message mode using mobile services

Mobile services can be used in different ways to communicate hazard information. Three possible ways, SMS, CBS and IVR were discussed through demonstration messages (see figure 7.1) and voice SMS in a more general way. Overall the results showed the huge potential IVR has for meeting the needs of the end users, as it is a voice based message, accessible anytime and on any mobile phone network. However, the participants were still enthusiastic about receiving warnings using SMS and CBS. Voice SMS was preferred over SMS, CBS and IVR because they would automatically get the message rather than having to call the specific number and the KKIs felt that this would increase their awareness. The summary of the advantages and disadvantages of the different mobile services is explained further below and as shown in table 7.4.

Short Messaging Service (SMS) Participants liked the idea of receiving information through their mobile phones also through SMS. It was found that all the participants in each FGD were interested in subscribing for this information. However, SMS is not a function regularly used by them and therefore some disadvantages were raised. In all of the community FGDs it was found that SMS poses difficulties for those that cannot read in to understand the message. Additionally it was raised at the UDMC meeting in Jagaddal that they might forget to open the SMS. During the key informant interviews, the sub assistant agricultural officer (SAAO) said that farmers often automatically delete messages on their phone if they do not seem important to ensure their inbox does not fill up. These are important findings that could greatly reduce the ability of the warning message to reach the end user through SMS, actually read it and then understand it.

Cell Broadcasting Service (CBS) The participants were very enthusiastic about receiving an automatic CBS message on their phone and preferred this to subscribing. The participants like that CBS would reach everyone’s mobile phone in the area and was therefore better than SMS. Considering that CBS and SMS are both text-based messages, again the problem that it is in English causing difficulties in understanding. Overall it was found that the participants in all of the FGDs preferred the mode of CBS to SMS.

Interactive Voice Response (IVR) The awareness of the FGD participants and KIIs of similar IVR services, providing health and agricultural information were questioned. Two groups women groups (Surma and Jagaddal), showed awareness of the health service but no one had ever used it, while none of the groups had heard of, or used the agricultural service. The sub assistant agricultural officer (SAAO) was aware of the agricultural service but felt that he didn’t need to use it because he knows all the information already and had never seen any farmers using the service. It was found that both UDMC groups were aware of the IVR service offered by the DDM. One Union Parishad (Solukabad) displayed a large awareness-raising poster, see figure 7.4. The UDMC members in Jagaddal were aware but had forgotten about it and neither groups expressed that they used the service. The UISC manager had heard about the service but could not recall the number. This awareness of the service by the UDMC and KIIs was not reflected at the community level where not one person had heard of, or used the service before. This is a disappointing result, showing that these services are available nationwide and although some awareness

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raising activities had been attempted, reaching the UP and some key informants, the communities were never introduced to them before.

In all FGDs and KIIs the participants were very enthusiastic about this IVR service from DDM. This was shown by the participants using their own mobile phones to dial the number and some farmers asking for the number on a piece of paper so they could keep it. The IVR service was liked because the message was available in Bangla, they could listen to it and it was available on all networks at all times. However, the participants did say that the number was quite long and would be difficult to remember. The UISC manager, BRAC microfinance officer and teacher were impressed that the service was available on all mobile phone networks. They were aware of the IVR with agricultural information, which is only available on Banglalink and another service for political information only available on Grameen phone. An interesting point raised in the KIIs was that people may not remember the message once they hear it. The IVR would allow you to call the number again but this would cost more money so users may not do this. Whereas the voice SMS and SMS information stored on the phone and can be viewed any time without any cost, as a reminder or shown to a friend or neighbour if it is not understood.

Figure 7.4 IVR awareness raising poster

It was recognised in the FGDs that the communities were very aware of the timing of flash floods, which could initiate them to make a call, however they may still forget the number or forget to call. Overall these results were more positive than expected for IVR. It was anticipated that the end users would have been more concerned about actually calling to get the information and paying for it. This shows their need for voice based information but they were also enthusiastic about getting information through SMS or CBS.

Table 7.4 FGD results on the different modes SMS, CBS and IVR

SMS CBS IVR Advantages x Good accessibility to mobile x Automatic message x Listen to the message x More people will get the x Available on all networks message x Message can be provided in Bangla x Available at all times

Disadvantages x Difficult for those that cannot x Difficult for those that cannot x Might forget the long read to understand the read to understand the number message message x General information not x Might forget to open the x Message in English local enough message x Information is not stored: x Automatically delete the need to call again for a message reminder

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Voice SMS Voice SMS was preferred from all of the groups asked over SMS, CBS and IVR because the information is pushed unlike IVR and is voice based. This technology is not currently being used in Bangladesh for flood early warning and was not the focus of the discussion, but the participants were very enthusiastic about it. These results were not surprising because as found in the Chapter 6, the community have very low literacy levels making communication by text a challenge for the end users to comprehend the messages. This voice function increases the ability of the end user to understand the message and it is clear that this is the winning advantage of the service for these communities. The key informants agreed that it would be a good way to communicate because it would increase their awareness of the hazard, by pushing information, especially if used in combination with the IVR service. The participants liked this idea of having an SMS, Voice SMS or CBS in combination with an IVR system as well as a parallel system of mosque miking to reach those without mobiles.

7.3.3. Targeted information

A bulk SMS system is being developed in the DDM (see Chapter 5), which could potentially designate targeted messages to different end users, if the specific information was collection upon registration. It would also be possible for this targeted information to be provided in IVR where specific options can be used but for CBS this is not possible. The community FGDs did not request the need for specific messages about flash floods for different groups (farmers, fishers, women) within the community, because it was felt flash floods affect everyone. The outcome was the same from each FGD in each location. However, the KII participants recognised that that giving more targeted messages would be useful, to different people that had different activities and responsibilities for their response to the message.

7.3.4. Awareness

The key informant interviewees raised the importance of increasing the awareness within the community if mobile service warnings can be successfully implemented. Information about the availability of the warnings through mobile services and how to understand and react to the messages contained within them were the main concerns expressed. All KII’s felt that they could play a role in increasing the communities awareness about using mobile services for flood warning dissemination and in teaching the community how to understand the message.

It was felt that if training was provided, it would be useful to them, for playing a role on awareness raising for preparedness, message understanding and response actions in the community. It was discussed in Chapter 4 that the Ansar, who are accountable to the government, could play a good role in disseminating information, this was confirmed through the KII discussion with them. The UISC manager felt that they could play a strong role in providing awareness raising materials and teaching the community how to interpret the message symbols and abbreviations when the community visits their centre. However, the Ansar did say that the travel expenses required for her to complete these activities could be high and would restrain her from doing so. Similarly, as discussed in Chapter 3, the ‘mobile user’ in Surma Union felt constrained to disseminate the warning to the whole community because of the cost of calling.

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These results show that the informants who play a role in the community are willing to increase this awareness, however in order for this to be done successfully it is paramount that they are given clear instruction, responsibilities and potentially some financial resources to aid these actions.

7.3.5. Back up communication channels

It was clear from all the FGD’s that mobile services would act as a good risk communication mode. However, a back-up system must be in place if the mobile phone network fails and to reach those that either do not have access to, or cannot understand messages from mobile services. The ideas of the participants, on how achieve this are compiled below; x Those with mobile phones will share the information to their friends and neighbours x People without mobiles know who owns them and can go to them for information x Mosque miking x Provide the community with mobile phones

From this information it is clear that mosque miking is an essential mode for warning communication to be used in combination with mobile services. These results also emphasise the importance of the social ties where everyone was willing to share information with others and especially to those with no mobile phones and they are aware of whom these are. This strengthens earlier results that mobile phones and mosque miking are good communication modes.

7.3.6. Cost of services

The results found that all the participants asked were willing to pay somewhere between 0.2 to 2 Taka per minute (USD equivalent approx. 0.03 to 0.25 cents) for the IVR service. For SMS or CBS messages this was found to be much lower, where only half of the groups asked were willing to pay between 0.5 and 2 Taka per message (USD equivalent approx. 0.06 to 0.25 cents). These results strengthen the fact that the communities really preferred IVR to SMS and CBS as a way to get warning information using mobile services. This is a good result for IVR because currently the call does induce a charge, showing this would not stop them from using the service. However, the participants expressed that they would pay for the IVR service but that it must be improved, relating more to flash flood areas and provide more localised information. This result again supports the participants’ views on how to improve the message to make it more personalised to the haor area. As was found in Chapter 4, it is not possible to ask the end users to pay for warning information through SMS or CBS, however the results do show that some would be willing to pay. This again strengthens the point that these communities demand information on flash floods and in particular through voice based service on their mobile phone.

7.3.7. Infrastructure requirements

The mobile phone network coverage and its resilience during floods were discussed during the FGDs. It was found that network problems were uncommon, however in one UDMC meeting in Jagaddal the participant’s spoke of experiencing some problems at night.

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7.4. Message source and dissemination pathway

7.4.1. General message source

The results show that Union Parishad (UP), consisting of the Union Chairman and the UDMC members, and the Imam were identified in the highest number of FGD’s as a good source for warning information, when compared to the other identified sources, see figure 7.5. Other sources included BWDB, the media, Upazila Parishad, Bangladesh Meteorological Department (BMD) “weather forecasting agency” and the FFWC. Additionally, through the KII’s it was found that local representatives (SAAO, microfinance officers, UISC representatives, teachers, village police etc.) who form social networks in the community could act as good sources of warning information for dissemination to the community. The communities prefer getting information from sources that they are somewhat familiar with.

The Union Parishad and the Imam were consistently identified, in at least one FGD in each community and for each end user group (farmers, women, fisher-farmer) as good sources of warning information for them. Furthermore, the participants discussed that they trust the Union Parishad (UP) and Imam as sources of information and that they can effectively disseminate it to the community. This linkage between the identification of the mosque miking (communication mode) and Imam (source) shows the reliance of the community on religious leaders for information. A possible explanation for this is that these sources were identified as currently providing flash flood information to the community and both have strong connections with the community. The results shown in Chapter 6 found that the participants in general, were not aware of the FFWC and therefore not aware of whom the actual warning source is (FFWC) and this explains why they identified traditional sources of information (UP and Imam).

The results for the other identified sources were not consistent in each community or each end user group. It was found that these identified sources were being based more on the experience of that particular community in receiving information, discussed further below.

BWDB: This was identified in both UDMC meetings and in two farmer FGD’s (Solukabad and Uttar Sreepur). One member of the UDMC, is also a member of the PIC which is in charge of the construction and repair of the embankments and is controlled by BWDB. This could be the explanation for this result, as the UDMC is aware of BWDB and has received information from them in the past through the PIC (as identified in Chapter 4). Additionally, the farmer groups said they had on occasions received information from BWDB in relation to flash floods. As discussed in Chapter 6, all FGD’s including the farmer groups, were aware of BWDB. Therefore, it is not surprising that BWDB was identified.

Upazila Parishad: Three groups (2 UDMC and 1 farmer group) liked to receive information from the Upazila Parishad. This was expected from the UDMC meeting as this is their formal source of warning information. However, it is not common for the community people to get warnings from the Upazila Parishad.

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Figure 7.5 Identified sources of flash flood warning information in each user group (% out of 12)

Media: One farmer (Jagaddal) and one woman (Solukabad) FGD identified the media through the television as a good source. These groups also talked about receiving information on the occurrence of flash floods from the news on the television.

Bangladesh Meteorological Department (BMD) “weather forecasting agency”: This source was identified in two FGD’s (farmer and fisher-farmer) in Jagaddal and Uttar Sreepur. A reason behind this result could be that the farmers pay regular attention to weather forecasting during the flash flood period. The farmer group in Jagaddal identified the weather forecasting agency and the media as potentially good sources, showing a possible link.

FFWC/RIMES: This was identified in two FGDs (UDMC and farmer group) in Jagaddal Union. A clear explanation is that the UDMC members are getting information directly from the FFWC/RIMES and was satisfied in getting information from this source. A more surprising result was from the farmer group, where one participant had heard that the UDMC were getting information from FFWC/RIMES and he liked this idea.

NGOs: It was surprising that NGOs were not recognised as a possible source, especially for the study areas with NGO led projects (Uttar Sreepur and Surma). The formed groups/persons assigned for the dissemination of warning information were unidentified by the FGD participants as a source. A possible explanation could be that they did not realise that information was from the designated NGO, rather just a neighbour informing them or they

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had not effectively received information from them before. The participants did talk about their involvement with NGOs for borrowing money and helping with the recovery process.

7.4.2. Message source using mobile services

In the demonstration of SMS, CBS and IVR only the IVR service specifically stated the source of the information, which was the FFWC, and no problems were associated with this. Though it is important to include the source of warning, a constraint exists because limited space is available, especially for text-based messages. The lack of the information source in the SMS and CBS was not raised and participants did not express wanting this information to be provided. When communicating a warning, the message originates at the source agency and can go through many dissemination pathways before reaching the end user. The source agency for the official information is most likely to be the FFWC for flood forecasts, in addition to BMD for weather forecasts. When aiming to communicate in the fastest way possible there should be minimal jumps of information from one source to the next before reaching the end user. For this reason, an important result is that the communities had no issues in receiving information from these source agencies.

When the warning is disseminated from source to the UDMC and then to the community, the results showed that the community was happy to get information from the UDMC. However, the capacity and resources required for disseminating information from UDMC can result in a lack of effectiveness, which was found in Jagaddal UDMC as the communities did not receive the FFWC-RIMES warning. For this reason additional networks are required to assist in this dissemination process to reach a greater audience, where the Imam was identified as good means of doing so. Additionally during the KIIs further networks were explored to understand their current and potential role in warning dissemination. It was identified that teachers, Imams, sub assistant agricultural officers (SAAO) and NGO’s (BRAC) already play a role in disseminating information about flash floods to the community, as recognised in Chapter 4. All informants agreed that they could be potential recipients of warning information through mobile services and effectively disseminate this to their networks, reaching more people than if it is only done by the UDMC.

7.4.3. Two way communication

As was found in Chapter 4, the ‘mobile user’ in the VARD project area does collect information on the local conditions and feeds it back the district NGO officer for use in his decision-making. It was found that the FGD participants and KII’s were enthusiastic about sharing the information they are seeing at the local level, combining their indigenous knowledge through a feedback system to update warnings reflecting local conditions better. The KII participants suggested that the information could be given to the Upazila Parishad or BWDB who could update the information and must be gathered from disciplined and responsible people to ensure the trustworthiness of the information. The key informants could serve as options for this but would require specific training. Additionally, it was recognised that the indigenous knowledge would be difficult to integrate. The informants agreed that a flood pillar could be useful way to more thoroughly collect information on the local water levels and would be useful for the community to understand the danger levels of the rivers.

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7.5. Identified implications for the effective warning communication using mobile service

The results showed that the communities were very enthusiastic about getting flash flood warning information and they would like this through mobile services. Therefore, there is a big role that mobile services can play to effectively communicate warning information to the communities. This is discussed further in terms of how this can be done reflecting the warning characteristics (message content, style, mode and source/dissemination pathway). This forms the conclusions to the chapter and answers research question 5.

7.5.1. Message content x The communities required a lot of information in a warning message. This included past, present and expected water level (with reference to a danger level) and rainfall, the areas at risk, the expected time until impact and guidance information. The most locally specific information possible with reference to the areas and haors that are at risk is required. This information should be made available to the communities where possible and the different modes of mobile services can aim to achieve this. x Long lead times are required but short lead times are still useful for the participants showing that the information currently available can be valuable. Warning messages should aim to communicate the associated uncertainty especially if the lead times are quite long to ensure trust is not lost in the message. x The communities did not require more targeted messages but this was deemed appropriate for different groups with different responsibilities e.g. agricultural officers, teachers etc. and therefore could be integrated for communication using mobile services.

7.5.2. Message style x The communities do not understand the measurement unit cm and therefore the locally understandable units like bighat are liked and should be integrated in all the warning messages through any mode of mobile services. x The communities liked the use of symbols and were willing to learn how to interpret the symbols but they did not meet their requirements for information, therefore additional information should be provided in an accessible way. It is additionally important to provide training to the end uses on the meaning of such symbols.

7.5.3. Message communication mode x The different groups don’t have much of a preference on how they get this information but were very enthusiastic about using mobile services and mosque miking seemed to be the most effective as an additional mode.

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x All types of mobile services were liked but the voice based services (IVR and Voice SMS) were strongly preferred over text based (SMS and CBS) as the messages were easier to understand, meeting their needs more sufficiently. Additionally more participants were found to be willing to pay for information on IVR, rather than CBS or SMS showing their desire for voice based information. x Demand based information (IVR) was liked as it provides more information but it was found necessary to supplement this with push based information (SMS, Voice SMS or CBS) for emergency situations where the end users need to be alerted of the threat. x In all of the different community FGDs and UDMC meetings, mobile phones were identified as a good mode for warning dissemination. They chose communication modes similar to those that they use on a regular basis. x CBS was liked as a push method because it could reach more people and didn’t require subscription like SMS. Voice SMS was preferred over SMS, CBS and IVR because it is a push method and voice based. IVR showed huge potential due to its voice-based message, and the accessibility of the service anytime and on any network. x Awareness was found to be low or non-existent of similar IVR services showing the importance of this factor for effective warning communication.

7.5.4. Message source x The community identified the Union Parishad, Imam, BWDB, media, and official sources, BMD and FFWC as good sources of warning information. The more local sources (UP and Imam) were identified in the highest number of FGDs as preferred sources of warning information. Sources identified were based on their past experiences. This relates to their experiences in receiving both warning related and regular information and their knowledge of potential sources of information. x The FFWC was identified as a good source of information when the participants were familiar with them. Furthermore BMD “weather forecasting agency” was identified showing that they know that there is information from such a source but have limited experience of using it. This could mean that they prefer local sources (Imam and UP) for receiving warnings but the official sources to get more detailed information. x No persons or organisations were mentioned that the communities disliked or did not want to get information from. Additionally there was no dislike mentioned or lack of trust in receiving information from the governmental institutions. The end users identified a range of sources from local (Union Parishad and Imam) to national (FFWC and BMD “weather forecasting agency”) based on the sources that they are familiar with and have past experiences with. x Local social networks can be utilised with training for message interpretation and response actions and for providing feedback. Communities were found to be enthusiastic to gather information at the local level.

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CHAPTER 8

Proposed warning communication using mobile services

This chapter leads to answering the overall research question through combining the results from the past four chapters. A warning communication system is proposed using mobile services, focused on improving the social performance in the short, medium and long term. The process of proposing this system is first discussed, followed by a discussion on the results from previous chapters. Next the proposed system for the short, medium and long term is described followed by a discussion on the requirements needed to achieve this. The chapter ends with a discussion on the limitations of the study.

8.1. Warning communication selection criteria

Mobile services provide an excellent opportunity to improve the efficiency in communicating flash flood warning information to the community level, thereby improving the social performance. This section discusses how the findings from the characteristics of the current warning system, use of mobile services and the flash flood communities can be utilised to achieve this.

This analysis assesses the best way to use mobile services for the short term, reflecting changes that can take effect within the next 1 to 2 years, for the medium term within 2 to 5 years and the long term within 5 to 10 years. These are based on assumptions with regards the possible development of mobile technology, improvement in rainfall forecast technology, data availability and possible institutional strengthening. It is expected that these advancements over time will adapt the optimum communication system, as the current constraints to using such modes and providing such messages will gradually become less significant.

The process as shown in figure 8.1 outlines three steps towards the proposed communication system. The first step involves identifying the possible message content and style for input in warning messages using mobile services. The required information gathered in the FGDs is merged with what is potentially available, as identified from the current flash flood warning efforts.

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Secondly, the capabilities of different modes of mobile services are analysed, based on their ability to improve the social performance and to meet the end users requirements to convey such messages and styles. Simplified indicators, identified from the literature of the protective action decision-making process are used to assess how the different mobile services technologies perform (either high, medium, low). The criteria include, if the warning is received, paid attention to, understood and if it is personalised (as shown in figure 8.1) and are influenced by the warning, community and mobile services characteristics, as discussed below: x If the message is received – Influenced by the infrastructure requirements, handset limitations, the need to collect the end users numbers, the need for the end users to call for the information (push versus pull), the amount of people it can reach and how fast. x If the message is paid attention to – If the warning message is actually listened to or read once it is received. This is influenced by whether or not the service is push or pull based, if the message can initiate an alerting tone and if the message is voice or text based. x If the message is understood – Influenced by the message content and style, the handset capabilities to provide Bangla, voice versus text based information, the end users experience in getting the message and the end users educational attainment level. x If the message is personalised - Influenced by the message content and style, the level of targeted information allowing the end user to perceive the threat of the flood to them.

Figure 8.1 Steps in the process of selecting the use of mobile services

The mobile services mode is given an overall selection choice as either not good, good or very good based on the criteria. Different combinations of modes are then proposed for the short, medium and long term based on this analysis.

A third step is taken which involves proposing the different dissemination pathways with the different combinations of modes to complete the proposed warning communication system.

Before discussing the proposed communication system a discussion is first made on the findings from the previous four chapters.

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8.2. Discussion on the content, style, mode and dissemination pathway

8.2.1. Message content

The current content of the warning messages is not meeting the needs of the community varying from the FFWC’s complex experimental flood bulletin to simple alerting messages ‘flash flood is coming’ at the community level. The bulletin contained quantitative representations past and forecasted rainfall combined with the expected rise and fall in rivers at identified river gauges and stating if there was a ‘chance’ of a flash flood occurring. The message provided by RIMES to Jagaddal UDMC members was a more simplified representation, clearly stating that the forecasted weather conditions (heavy rainfall) may cause a sudden flash flood in the next 3 days. While from the NGO led projects (VARD, Caritas), again simplified messages were being given to the community people on the possibility of flash floods occurring.

The findings showed that communities actually wanted detailed information on the possibilities of flash floods. There needs (water level, rainfall, localised areas at risk, guidance information) somewhat reflect the complex information provided by FFWC’s flood bulletin but are not targeted to the community. However, this is currently only available is only for 8 forecasting points in the entire North East hydrological region and unable to provide estimates of the effects that the forecasts will have at the local level across this region. Although the RIMES message does provide localised rainfall conditions the only effort that attempted to gather real time information on local community conditions was through the NGO VARD. This was done through a feedback loop with a community member and the district level VARD office. Guidance information was requested by all FGD participants and failed to be in any of the current messages. The participants were aware of the ‘weather forecasting agency’, used the television to get flash flood information and requested weather related information, therefore such daily weather information would be useful to provide all year round. The IVR message does include a daily weather forecast from BMD but this is not localised and therefore does not meet the needs of the communities.

The communities desire locally specific warning information but current forecasting efforts are unable to produce this level of detail. However, RIMES are making efforts towards a more local specific forecast, in the pilot area. Furthermore, the efforts of RIMES need to be expanded outside of the pilot area, combined with the available FFWC-IWM flood bulletin information and collect information on the local situation (similar to VARD) to produce more localised messages for the communities.

In terms of available lead time, the current availability varies from 3 days (with limited accuracy) to zero (time of impact). The communities requested the need for long lead times (up to 20 days) but this cannot be met with the current forecasting efforts. The findings showed that communities can still benefit from shorter lead times (2 hours to 3 days) where they can still complete response activities including collecting crops, shifting livestock and preparing their homestead. In addition to this official warning information, attempts should be made to integrate the community’s knowledge of informal (indigenous) warnings into this warning system as it is the main source information relied on and it is accepted. This

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compliments the recommendations of Howell (2003) to integrate indigenous knowledge, to greatly improve the end users acceptance of the formal warning information.

8.2.2. Message style

The warning information must be presented in a way that the community people can understand and pay attention to. It was found that the current style of messages actually reaching the community are voice based, either through personal phone calling, mosque miking or word of mouth. If the hazard represented in the message fails to gain the attention of the end user the warnings can often be ignored (Pfister, 2002) and in this case voice messages would have a better chance in gaining and keeping ones’ attention. In all FGDs the participants preferred voice-based messages to those written in text. The participants also wanted messages in Bangla, which is possible through voice-based solutions and not currently for text based. Considering the amount of information required by the participants, voice based is also more desirable because of the space limitations in text-based message.

The current messages available in the flash flood areas did not use any symbols to represent the hazard or use any specified warning levels. The communities were found to like the idea of having a symbol to represent the hazard because the illiterate members of the community could easily understand it. Additionally there was an acceptance to learn how to interpret such symbols. However, it was found that the + symbol as used in USAID (2008) SMS message did not hold enough information and that the lead time was not clear enough. It was also found that the communities do not understand the measuring units of centimetres so when water levels are being referred to, any word or voice based messages, this should be done in local units of bighat (approx. 22 cm) or hat (approx. 44cm).

8.2.3. Communication mode

Some problems were identified for SMS, as it not regularly used by the communities and they often fail to open or pay attention to the message. The communities prefer text-based messages to be presented in Bangla, however this is limited to certain handset models and is not universally available.

From the communities perspective CBS was preferred over SMS as it has the potential to quickly reach large volumes of people, automatically to the end users phone. Although the communities are not reluctant to subscribe for information, it was preferred to get this automatically. CBS is a better solution, but only if it’s current service is improved. The CBS message is now represented with a small scroll message and no alerting tone compared to a large pop up message with a different beeping tone to regular SMS message, as found in CBS of CMAS in the USA (Stanley et al., 2011). Additionally it requires the mobile network infrastructure and handsets to be updated. These current limitations make it a less ideal mode in the short term but a very useful mode once it is further developed. Voice SMS was found to be the favoured option by the communities, it can have a beep like SMS but the message is automatically played on the user phone once opened, making them more likely to listen to the message than to read an SMS. However it is not yet in use for early warning dissemination and therefore it should not be considered as the ideal mode in the short term but has huge potential once it can be implemented.

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IVR is available on all mobile phone networks meaning anyone can have access to the information without the need for subscribing, and in all FGDs the participants liked the service and all questioned participants were willing to pay for the IVR service. Nevertheless, this method alone cannot be relied on as it is a pull (demand) based service and in emergency situations a push based service is required (SMS, CBS or Voice SMS) to supplement this, which was identified by the FGD participants and in the KIIs. Furthermore the current service is not specific to flash floods and therefore currently holds minimal useful information for the flash flood communities.

8.2.4. Dissemination pathway

Mobile services can be utilised in the most direct means to the end user to ensure the speedy delivery of the information, especially for short lead times. The results found that the official flash flood warning information is not directly connected to the community people. However, the pilot project of RIMES is reaching the UDMC and the NGO VARD is gathering information from the FFWC to reach the communities through their network.

The FGD participants desire information from local sources including the mosque Imam and the Union Parishad, based on their past experiences. It was also found that the participants in general were not aware of the FFWC and therefore not aware of whom the actual warning source is (FFWC) and this explains why they identified traditional sources of information (UP, Imam and media). However, BWDB (non local source but connected to the communities through the PIC) was recognised in two FGDs, as a good source of information and all FGDs were aware of the organisation. Furthermore it was identified that they currently do provide information to their PIC members in relation to flash floods. Together this shows that they could play an effective role in warning dissemination.

It was found that the UDMC could not be relied on alone to disseminate the information, as this was found to be ineffective in Jagaddal Union and there was a mismatch of information found between the UDMC and the community level. However the participants were found to trust the UDMC For this reason engaging with the PIC for local level dissemination can strengthen the UDMC’s dissemination power. Additionally networks involved in dissemination were found through the NGO formed committees or teams (incl. microfinance groups), agricultural groups, education (teachers), religious leaders (Imam), law enforcers (Ansar and village police) who are somewhat connected to district level. These networks have a direct link with the impacts of flash floods. Agriculture and embankments are at risk meaning that PICs and SAAOs should be interested in disseminating warnings. While teachers and Imams were found to have a social responsibility toward the community and should perform warning dissemination duties if clearly indicated. The NGO VARD was found to require the information from BWDB for their efforts in warning dissemination to the community level; therefore these efforts can be integrated. These NGO networks, where available can further strengthen the dissemination at local level and BWDB can utilise the presence of the NGOs at field level. The warning information should go at least directly to other local social networks but also to interested regular end users e.g. farmers. Women should be encouraged to play a role in warning dissemination; this can be done through microfinance groups and schools.

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Based the discussed information, it is clear that many improvements can be made to strengthen the flow of information from the source to the community where mobile service can play a big role. However, it was identified that the communities have situational constraints to responding to flash floods including limited income, access to labour, poor infrastructure and access to transport facilities hindering the farmers ability to save their crops. For these reasons although a warning may reach the end users a response is not possible. Unfortunately warning communication is unable to tackle this problem but these constraints could negatively affect the warnings social performance. This holds for the short, medium and long term proposed systems.

8.3. Short term - proposed communication system

The short term proposed communication system is discussed in more detail and forms the base for changes or improvements in the medium and long term.

8.3.1. Message content and style

Text based services should include symbols to aid interpretation of the hazard and all messages should include local measuring units. The message style needs to accommodate for the lack of Bangla in text messages and therefore symbols can be used to represent different warning levels, see table 8.1. It was identified that different warning lead times are available with varied levels of accuracy, like 1 to 3 days for RIMES (less certain) versus information on the occurrence of a flash flood nearby (certain). The symbols therefore, vary based on this lead time and the possibility of a flash flood occurring, unlike the USAID (2008) use of the + symbol to represent the increase in water level in the next day. The end users can be trained on the meaning of such messages and the associated preparations required for each.

Furthermore, in a text based message this symbol can be supplemented with additional information on the specific areas at risk, water level and rainfall conditions, in the form of words in the message and a link should be provided to a voice based service to gather more specific information or when the information does not fit in the text based message. Bangla messages should be used in SMS, on phones that are compatible (this could be a question asked at the time of subscription). Otherwise text-based messages can be given in a mix of English and Bangla in addition to the symbol. As the + symbol has been used in other areas it might be confusing to use such symbols again. Therefore it is proposed to use symbols that reflect a flood wave (~). This would require further research to find out if the communities can relate to such a symbol as they did with a + symbol.

Table 8.1 Example warning symbols for flash floods for text based messages

Possible flash flood – be conscious of local FLASH FLOOD 1 to 3 days lead ~ conditions, consult with your neighbours WARNING time and prepare to take action – Call 10941 FLASH FLOOD 2 to 6 hours lead Very possible flash flood - Take action and ~ ~ ALERT time inform your neighbours - Call 10941 FLASH FLOOD Flash flood FLASH FLOOD - Take action and inform ~ ~ ~ IMPACT occurring your neighbours – Call 10941

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Voice based services should be made available with warning information for longer lead times supplemented with alerting text-based messages (as discussed above) for shorter lead times. The detail of information that can be provided with different lead times will change. For example, with a 2-hour lead time the message should be alerting, informing the community that a flash flood is very likely to occur due to heavy rainfall. In this case, there would be no need to inform them of the past, present or forecasted water levels. However, guidance information is very important if there is such a short amount of time for them to achieve this and a reduced number of effective actions that can be taken. Therefore the message size will be smaller for shorter lead times with a brief message such as that shown in Box 1. This message would be feasible to provide in a voice or text based message, where in text based message the message could be limited to the symbol where the additional information could be provided in the voice based service (discussed further in communication mode in the next section).

BOX 1: FLASH FLOOD ALERT ~ ~ flash flood is expected to arrive at “X location” in the next 2 hours - prepare by protecting the embankment and shifting harvested crops, livestock and household goods to higher places – share this information with your neighbours. Call 10941 for further information.

Considering that the communities were found to require detailed information, this would be more applicable to provide with longer lead times e.g. 1 to 3 days to help them assess the accuracy of the information being provided and compare it to their indigenous knowledge, see Box 2 for an example of what this could contain. This message would be feasible on voice- based messages rather than text based.

BOX 2: FLASH FLOOD WARNING ~ According to the latest news from the Flood Forecasting and Warning Centre (FFWC), Bangladesh Meteorological Department (BMD) and Bangladesh Water Development Board (BWDB) there is a possibility for a flash flood to occur in the next 24 hours. Heavy rainfall has been occurring in the Meghalaya Hills over the past 3 days and is expected to continue causing water levels in the over the Jhalukali River to potentially increase by one hat (18 inches) in the next 24 hours. This is expected to affect Kochar Haor inhabitants, at Solukabad Union, Biswhambarpur, Sunamganj. Please keep aware of worsening conditions. Korchar Haor inhabitants are encouraged to take the following actions: - Harvest matured crops - Move harvested crops to higher ground - Protect the embankments - Stock dry food and secure valuables - Share this message with your neighbours and Imam - Consult with your neighbours/NGOs/UP on further appropriate actions to take

This information will be updated as the situation changes, so please return for more information if required.

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8.3.3. Communication mode

The four different modes, SMS, Voice SMS, CBS and IVR are analysed based on their ability to be received by the end user, paid attention to, understood and personalised, as shown in table 8.2 for the short term. Overall SMS and IVR show the most potential for meeting these criteria in the short term considering the constraints associated with the use of the other services. Table 8.2 Short term performance of selected modes

RECEIVED PAID UNDERSTOOD PERSONALISED OPTION ATTENTION TO SUITABILITY SMS Medium Low Low Low GOOD Voice SMS Low High High Medium NOT GOOD CBS Low Low Low Low NOT GOOD IVR Medium Medium High Medium GOOD

SMS can be successfully used as the infrastructure requirements are in place but it does require the end users numbers to be collected. However, the ability of the SMS messages to be paid attention to, understood and personalised is low. The end users may ignore the message, they may not have the ability to understand the text-based information and the size of the message size is limited to hold all the required information for them. Although the messages could be targeted to make them more personalised there is a limited amount of space in the message to achieve this.

Voice SMS is great improvement on SMS because the voice based message, improves the end users ability to pay attention to and understand the message. Additionally the message can be more personalised because it can hold more words. However, the Voice SMS is not currently being used and therefore has a low ability to be received by the end users.

CBS is another push service and has the strong advantage that it can be quickly received by a large amount of people; however the current infrastructure and mobile phone compatibility limitations mean that it cannot be received in the short term. Additionally agreements are generally made with one to two mobile phone operators to supplement the costs of the CBS service; this also applies for SMS in some cases. This results in only their customers receiving the warning message. Furthermore, the ability for the CBS message to be paid attention to is low because it is a scroll message with no alerting tone, when the message arrives on the screen. Additionally the message size is limited, even more so than SMS leaving its ability to be understood and personalised to be low. IVR has the problem that the end users need to initiate the call, making the ability for the end users to receive the information to be low in the short term. However, its ability to be paid attention to and personalised is good, because it is voice based, the message size is large and it can have different options for different types of information.

Reflecting on the above discussion on the expected performance of the different modes in the short term, it is expected that neither Voice SMS nor CBS can be utilised. Therefore, leaving SMS as the best option for pushing information to the end users and IVR as a pull service. Considering there is already a bulk SMS system currently being set up to disseminate warning messages to different DMCs, which can dissemination to all mobile networks, this can be

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utilised and its reach expanded. This combination would require important awareness raising efforts to ensure that the end users subscribe to the SMS and that they know about the IVR service. It must be achieved through many networks and not only relying on the UDMC, because it was seen that both UDMC groups were aware of the current IVR service yet this awareness was not reflected at the community level. Additionally, the simple message formats (using symbols) must be used for SMS to be understood by the less educated (as discussed above).

Each service can play different roles in the dissemination process, the IVR act as the central source of information for all lead times and the SMS can supplement it for shorter lead times to alert the end users. However, SMS can be used for the longer lead times but only to those that specify this when signing up and understand the possibilities that the information could be inaccurate. SMS can provide the alerting message and the end users can be referred to IVR for additional information. This mix of modes would be expected to reach a larger amount of people.

Furthermore, both SMS and IVR could potentially work as feedback channels to gather information on the local conditions. This mechanism has been integrated in the bulk SMS system by the Department for Disaster Management (DDM) and is not yet being used for IVR, but is possible. Both CBS and Voice SMS cannot be utilised for this. It was found in the FGDs that the communities are interested in doing this and it is required if locally based information is produced that can incorporate indigenous knowledge. A way to more thoroughly collect this information would be to install a flood pillar (water level reader) in different villages so this information can be used to update the warning.

8.3.4. Dissemination pathway

In order to simplify the potentially involved stakeholders in the dissemination process they have been placed in three groups. Those at the source level i.e. FFWC and BMD supported by RIMES, IWM etc. At the district level, agencies including BWDB, the district level administration (DDMC, DRRO, DC etc.), the district NGO offices and the DAE district office. At this level it is recommended that BWDB play the central role. The next group is the social networks that are expected to have a strong link with the community people, as identified in the KIIs. This includes the PICs, Imams, the SAAOs, teachers, microfinance groups, village police, Ansar volunteers, NGO project volunteers and the Union Information Services Centre (UISC) representatives. The next level is the community people themselves (farmers, fishers, women etc.) and these are expected to have strong connections with the social networks.

In the short term the proposed dissemination process is as shown in figure 8.2. The FFWC with the help of the other source agencies produce the forecasts but also gather local information. BWDB collects this information from its own monitoring stations but additionally from the local social networks at the community level and provides it to FFWC, see arrow 1. This allows FFWC to adapt the warning to reflect more local conditions. FFWC can disseminate this warning using mobile services including SMS and IVR. The IVR service is now nationwide so in the short term this is expected to remain this way however, a special code for the haor area (e.g. press 7) containing the required message information can be

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implemented. This can include a daily weather forecast and some preparatory advice for preparing for possible flash floods. This IVR service can be used to provide information to everyone (see arrow 2) at all lead times where the message is produced by FFWC/BMD. The message available through this option can vary depending on the potential threat of flash floods but should always contain some information. This allows for information to be accessible on a demand basis but the SMS is required to alert the end users.

The FFWC can connect with the DDM to disseminate the warnings via SMS to their regular stakeholders (including district level) but also directly to the local social networks and local level community subscribers (see arrow 3). This information can be disseminated directly to the community people for short lead times only when the accuracy of the information is good. The local social networks can then be utilised to disseminate to the communities via mosque miking, personal cell phone communication and word of mouth (see arrow 4). This is particularly important for the messages with longer lead times because the messages are not given directly to the community people.

Figure 8.2 Short term proposed dissemination pathway using mobile services

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8.5. Medium term - proposed communication system

8.5.1. Message content and style

In the medium term it is expected that the message content can improve, where more localised information becomes available to the communities. The operation of the recently installed radar station at Molvibazar and gathering more localised information through the feedback system is presumed to have potentials to improve this. It is also expected that the accuracy will improve for the information with longer lead times and that the technical advancements in mobile phone handsets will make Bangla messages available. Therefore, the text-based messages will be more understandable but there will still be the need for symbols to accommodate the illiterate and local measuring units should continue to be used. The symbols as shown in table 8.1 could be adapted to more prominently reflect the potential occurrence of a flash flood. This is because the type of mobile phones available is expected to improve, which can allow for either Bangla symbols or others to be used.

8.5.2. Communication mode

Overall in the medium term it is evaluated that all options will perform better than in the short term but that SMS will not be as useful because Voice SMS will be possible, which can play a more effective role for pushing information, see table 8.3. Additionally, CBS is expected to be possible but cannot be completely relied on.

Table 8.3 Medium term performance of selected modes RECEIVED PAID UNDERSTOOD PERSONALISED OPTION ATTENTION TO SUITABILITY SMS Medium Medium Medium Medium GOOD Voice SMS Medium High High Medium VERY GOOD CBS Medium Medium Medium Low NOT GOOD IVR Medium High High Medium GOOD

In the medium term, both Voice SMS and CBS are expected to improve in their ability to be received by the end users because of improvements in the infrastructure for CBS and the developed interest in DDM for disseminating Voice SMS. SMS will improve in its ability to be paid attention to, understood and personalised because it is expected that Bangla messages are possible. However, it is expected that Voice SMS would perform better than SMS because the end users are more likely to listen to the message and understand it and should be utilised where possible as a push service to the community people, in particular for shorter lead times. Infrastructure improvements for CBS are expected but all handsets may not be sufficiently updated therefore this option cannot be relied on and should be substituted by either voice SMS or SMS. The push messages should include references to IVR for further information.

IVR as a demand based method is expected to improve in the medium term because over time more people become aware of the service and the information inside becomes more useful and localised due to improvements in forecasting. The end users’ are therefore more likely to pay attention to the message (initiated by them) and the information becomes more personalised. The service has the potential to hold different types of information for different

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needs. This service should be used at all times to hold the more detailed information but can also be used for non-emergency times to hold general weather information.

8.5.3. Dissemination pathway

The dissemination pathway proposed for the medium term is as shown in figure 8.3. The main difference is that BWDB play a more central role. It is recommended that a 24-hour flood office be set up at the BWDB office in Sunamganj during the flash flood period (March to May). This involves increasing their role in both the feedback process (see arrow 1) and the warning dissemination process (see arrow 2). This will require greatly improving the capacity of at the BWDB district level. This way the efforts become more localised and the district BWDB office can collect information from FFWC (after providing them with information on local conditions). BWDB combines the FFWC information with their locally gathered information from the local social networks to adapt the warning and is in charge of disseminating warning to community level through IVR. The IVR service can be locally specific to the haor region where a specific phone number e.g. 211 is used and has different options for different types of information, which is under the main control of BWDB Sunamganj but they also gather information from the other district level agencies (DAE, NGOs) to disseminate through IVR e.g. agricultural and flood preparedness information.

A combination of Voice SMS and SMS can be used (see arrow 3) which is disseminated by the DDM to push information. Voice SMS is used to disseminate information directly to the community (because it is more understandable) for short lead times but the SMS system of DDM can still be used to send messages to the district and local social networks. However, Voice SMS should also be possible to the local social networks that can choose their preference of either this or SMS upon subscription. The identified social networks will disseminate to the community level (see arrow 4).

Figure 8.3 Medium term proposed dissemination pathway using mobile services

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8.6. Long term - proposed communication system

8.6.1. Message content and style

In the long term it is expected that the message content can become more localised and accurate for longer lead times (up to 3 days) but still not possible to produce long lead-times (20 days). Similar to the medium term it is expected that Bangla will be available on mobile phones and the phones can accommodate more effective CBS messages. Additionally as the forecasting becomes more accurate for local conditions the guidance information will improve. Furthermore it is expected that the message content can become more targeted to the social networks specifically stating the actions they should take for further dissemination to their target groups.

8.6.2. Communication mode

In the long term all services could be effectively utilised but especially CBS for short lead times to reach the largest amount of people see table 8.4. It is expected that the CBS can be used to its full potential with updated infrastructure and mobile phone handsets. A special pop up message can be used and alerting tone different to the SMS message. This will increase the ability of the end users to pay attention the message. It can effectively reach large volumes of people quickly. This is a strong advantage of the service especially for information with short lead times (2 to 6 hours). This reduces the need for SMS but Voice SMS is still very useful because it can inform the end users in a more understandable way than CBS or SMS and is pushing the information compared to IVR.

Additionally, the communities can demand information from IVR where it provides detailed information in relation the flash floods. IVR service should be as local as possible and provide Upazila wise information and area specific codes can be used for this e.g. call 211 for Sumanganj District information and within this you can press 1 for a specific Upazila and within this it is possible to get local weather forecast, water level information in nearby stations, flood preparation information, agricultural information and provide feedback.

SMS has the potential to be targeted and considering the handsets are expected to provide Bangla in the long term this will prove much more beneficial. It is not necessary to implement targeted SMS to different community groups, considering the results from the FGD where it was found that the different user groups all wanted the same information. However, SMS can be targeted to those who need to further disseminate the information e.g. UDMC members or social networks as their level of understanding and response actions are different. This can also be done for Voice SMS where subscribers can chose their preferred service

Table 8.4 Long term performance of selected modes RECEIVED PAID UNDERSTOOD PERSONALISED OPTION ATTENTION TO SUITABILITY SMS Medium Medium Medium Medium GOOD Voice SMS Medium High High High VERY GOOD CBS High High Medium Medium VERY GOOD IVR Medium High High High VERY GOOD

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8.6.3. Dissemination pathway

The dissemination pathway proposed for the medium term is as shown in figure 8.4. In the long term the feedback process is expected to become more beneficial and useful for predicting flash floods and their associated warnings (see arrow 1). Again in this term BWDB play an even stronger role and are now involved in disseminating all warnings through each type of mobile service. The IVR service can become even more localised (see arrow 2).

In this case the use of SMS is less important because CBS and Voice SMS can be utilised but should still be available. The messages can become more targeted through SMS and Voice SMS where different services can be used for different subscribers based on their needs (see arrow 3). CBS can be effectively used for short lead times to disseminate to the community level (see arrow 5). BWDB should be responsible to disseminate the message directly to the mobile phone operators and then to the community and should be used in emergency situations (short lead times).

Figure 8.4 Long term proposed dissemination pathway using mobile services

Furthermore, the provision of additional information through the localised IVR could allow it to become an integrated disaster management information service from preparedness and response, to relief and rehabilitation for all types of exposed hazards in the areas. Additionally integration could be made with the DAE’s service offering agricultural information. The DAE can also provide specific information on how the end users should respond e.g. press 8 to talk with the district/national/local level experts. The feedback system can be further improved to include information on whether the end users received the information, what they did with the information and if the information was correct or accurate, all of which can help to improve the social performance in the future. Furthermore the service can aim to connect with upstream communities and their social networks to gather information from on the occurrence of flash flood upstream in the Megalagha Mountains.

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Considering that Internet was found to be available in the communities it is expected that this would be further available in the long term and that more people have access to smart phones. For this reason warning dissemination could take a big step forward delivering videos and pictures about upcoming floods. A possible way to do this would be to install monitoring cameras at vital locations in the upstream catchments; videos captured by these cameras should be available through Internet to the communities. This will give a perception of real danger of flash flood to the end user.

8.7. Requirements for the implementation of the proposed communication system

8.7.1. Institutional strengthening The above communication system for the short term reflects the communication modes that are now available (SMS and IVR) but requires them to be more focused on the flash flood exposed communities. Furthermore the communities need to be involved with the process by engaging with the local social networks to aid in the dissemination and feedback process. District level co-operation and co-ordination is required combined with mobilisation of the local social networks including the UDMCs.

In order for this system to be achieved in the medium and long run strong institutional strengthening is required within BWDB to play this role the flash flood early warning process. Clear roles and responsibilities must be established for those within BWDB and for integrating the social networks with this arrangement. Furthermore investment is required to strengthen the BWDB and the UDMCs so that this can be achieved successfully. A link must be established between BWDB and DDM to allow them to take this role and connect with their regular dissemination pathways. Furthermore co-operation is required between mobile phone operators to ensure warnings can be sent to all end users through CBS and Voice SMS.

8.7.2. Awareness raising and preparedness measures Awareness raising among the end users is critical for the success of mobile services for warning dissemination in the short, medium and long term. This was identified in all discussions with the communities and key informants.

Education and training programmes should be provided to local social networks including the UDMCs, Imams, microfinance leaders, NGO volunteers, agricultural officers (SAAOs), teachers, Ansar, village police and UISC representatives. The aim is that they will then act as information providers on flood preparedness and coping mechanisms, message interpretation, warning dissemination and response to the community level. They have strong connections with their target groups, meeting them on a daily basis or weekly and this provides opportunities to successfully penetrate information to the community people. The training should include the following topics and can be done in coordination with local NGOs.

x How to prepare for a flood (embankment, household and agricultural protection) x How to subscribe for messages x How to interpret the warning messages x Probabilistic nature of the forecasts, possibility that they could be wrong x To use indigenous knowledge in combination with early warning information

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x Response and protective actions x Alternative flood protection measures for agriculture – early rice variety etc. x Awareness raising about the information provider (FFWC, BWDB) and IVR service x Encourage end users to give feedback information

It was found in all FGDs that the participants wanted guidance information in a warning message. The communities were found to be aware of coping mechanisms and response actions but they still needed to be reminded in the face of a flood event. This can be provided in the warning message where the space permits, but also needs to be embedded in the community through educational and training programs at the community level through links with the social networks. Training is necessary to provide feedback information to the BWDB office either through their own network e.g. SAAO to the DAE district office and then to the BWDB office or directly to the BWDB office. This should be done by implementing flood pillars in critical locations in the community and teaching them how to take measurements.

In order to increase the communities awareness of using mobile services for warning dissemination, and mobile services themselves can be used to raise awareness. For example CBS (once operational), SMS and Voice SMS can send broadcast messages about the IVR service explaining that it is available and holds useful information in relation to flash floods. Additionally campaigns, posters, flyers etc. can be used (as suggested by the participants). It is crucial that this awareness raising is completed seriously, as it was clearly evident in the communities that few people were aware of the agricultural, health and DDM’s IVR services. This should be done at household level through the support of the local social networks.

The communities were found to watch the weather forecast but could not recognise Bangladesh Meteorological Department (BMD) who actually produces the information nor were they aware of the FFWC. It is important that the end users become aware of the national source agencies (FFWC and BMD). A reason for this is the fast development of Internet services and smart phone applications where detailed flood information can be found on the source agencies webpages. The communities should be educated about these agencies so they can access this information when it is possible to do so (or at the UISC).

The collection of end users information (opt in system) can be done in the simplest way possible for subscription to the service of voice SMS or SMS. This could be done at the Union Information Services Centre (UISC) through a portal on DDM’s website. In this way the end users can subscribe online with detailed information, including when they would like to receive messages and if they would like simplified messages or those written in text. During subscription the end users can be shown a potential message that they will be expecting to get and be provided with information on how to interpret it and take protective action in response to it. It is important to increase awareness on how the subscription process works; awareness raising messages sent using mobile phones could assist in this process.

IVR can include an option on general flood preparedness information, recommending that end users consult the UDMC or local committees (e.g. farming) for further information to discuss possible preparations. This preparedness and warning information should also be available on the FFWC/BMD website in particular a section on how to prepare for flooding with videos and awareness raising materials provided in cooperation with DDM and NGOs and the UISC.

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8.8. Discussion of the limitations of the research

The focus of this study was to understand the links between the current warning system and the use of mobile services, to identify the way to use mobile services to improve the social performance of the warning. Based on the above results, it is now important to recognise the limitations of this research, which may lead to the results being less representative. x Given the time limitations, only the key national (FFWC, RIMES, CEGIS, DDM and CDMP) and regional (BWDB, DAE and VARD) organisations were visited. However, it was felt that a good range of the most important stakeholders were interviewed to capture the current status of the flash flood early warning system and the use of mobile services. x Due to time constraints and availability of FGD participants, it was not possible to have an equal number of FGDs over each study area or evenly split between end user groups. Nevertheless the study still managed to capture the opinions of a range of different end user groups in a broad range of flash flood prone areas to answer the research questions. However, no study area was taken directly at the other flash flood prone area at the Tripura foothills at the border to India; this could have revealed further interesting results. x It was only possible to conduct the field level key informant interviews in one Union. Additional information could have been found by doing these in the other study areas, but it was expected that similar information would be found. Eight key informants were interviewed and given the limited time this number was felt to be sufficient to cover a broad range of locally knowledgeable persons and did not negatively affect the results. x Efforts were made so that different types of mobile services modes and messages shown to the communities were as real and believable as possible. However, the IVR service had an advantage, as its service was then available while the CBS and the SMS, were not available, which were shown on paper. This might have had some influence on the answers; response being more positive in favour of IVR than for the other services. In spite of that, it was believed that IVR was preferred over the text based services. x A local interpreter was engaged to facilitate the group discussions. It occurred that some participants could not understand some questions or did not know how to answer a question. These situations were difficult to avoid in particular where the educational attainment is low. It was felt that this has affected the results to some extent where the answers were not found to all the checklist questions for each discussion. Nevertheless the KIIs allowed some voids to be filled and overall it was felt that the information gathered was representative. x The field data was collected in late May and early June. The participants just passed the critical flash flood period and were busy harvesting their crops meaning it was difficult to find them for the FGDs and also to keep their attention for the full discussion. This however, was not found to have a considerable effect on the data collection and the opinions of the farming community are sufficiently reflected in the results through the 5 discussions with either farmer or fisher-farmer groups.

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CHAPTER 9

Conclusions and recommendations

This study set out to determine how mobile services could be used to improve the social performance of flash flood early warnings. An in depth analysis was undertaken of the current situation with regards flash flood warnings and the use of mobile services in Bangladesh. The characteristics of the flash flood exposed communities were explored revealing their needs and preferences for flash flood warning communication using mobile services. New and improved ways to use mobile services for warning communication were identified to increase the social performance of the warnings. This chapter includes the conclusions and recommendations for the study, along with suggestions for further research.

9.1. Conclusions

The study revealed that there is much scope for strengthening the current warning dissemination processes and increasing the social performance of flash flood warnings through the use of mobile services.

9.1.1. Characteristics of warning, community and mobile services x Information in relation to flash floods is in great demand by the communities; they are recurrently exposed to flash floods and have a high awareness of the elements at risk including the boro rice crop, and the submergible embankments. Official warning information is failing to reach the community level where indigenous knowledge and news of an event occurring from the media or Union Parishad is being relied on. x Mobile services are available and accepted by the communities. Up to 85% of the participants had access to mobile phones (up to 65% ownership) and in all Focus Group Discussions (FGD) the participants wanted to receive information using mobile services. The current use of mobile services for disseminating flash flood warning information is limited to regular phone calling (at national, district and local levels) and SMS (between FFWC-RIMES and UDMC) showing that mobile services can be utilised further.

Conclusions and recommendations 110

x It was recognised that new sources (FFWC/RIMES) are accepted, government sources (Union Parishad and UDMC members) were trusted and the awareness of BWDB was high. BWDB, DAE and NGOs at the district level currently play a limited role in warning dissemination and if cooperation was improved could play a larger role due to their strong connections at the community level. x The existing local institutions (UDMCs) and NGO volunteers lack strengths in manpower and capacity for effective dissemination at the community level. However, strong social networks were identified with the community people, all of which could be further utilised to transfer the warnings to their target groups. x A feedback system is required to gather locally specific information to update the warnings (similar to VARD’s system) and to gather the indigenous knowledge at the community level, which is being strongly dependent on. x It was identified that the farmers have constraints to their response including a limited availability of labour, income to pay for labour and transport facilities to harvest and collect their crops. Furthermore, the community is accustomed to relying on signs that flash floods are soon to, or have arrived, meaning that they could wait for these signs before reacting to a warning. The findings also revealed that some participants felt powerless when faced with flash floods ‘nothing to do’ and had a lack of belief that early warnings are possible ‘happens so fast’. Together this means that even if a warning is successfully communicated it may not be responded to. x The communities requested the warning message to contain the hazard presented in relation to water level and rainfall, current and expected conditions and must state the areas at risk. Additionally the warnings requested were to be as location specific as possible, referring to local references, District, Upazila, Union, Village, haor and river names. All FGDs requested guidance information in the message. Long lead times (up to 20 days) are required for response actions (harvesting crops) to be effective but shorter lead times (2 hours to 3 days) were still deemed useful. x All user groups liked all technologies for receiving information through their mobile phone. The IVR service was preferred in all FGDs over SMS and CBS, while Voice SMS was preferred over all three options. Both IVR and Voice SMS are voice based. x Text based services SMS and CBS cannot yet be provided in Bangla and there are limitations to who can receive the messages depending on the mobile network subscription. Symbols (due to the low literacy rate), a mix of English and Bangla were also accepted and the communities liked references to local measuring units bighat or hat. x Preparedness and awareness raising activities are crucial if mobile services can be successfully integrated to reach the communities about the presence of the services, how to interpret them, and how to respond. Particularly for IVR as the users are required to request the information. Some key informants and UDMC members were aware of the IVR service this was not reflected at the community level. Additionally CBS is a new way to receive a message and both SMS and Voice SMS require subscription to the services.

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9.1.2. Proposed warning communication using mobile services

The proposed options for warning communication using mobile services are expected to improve the social performance by providing the communities with better access to the available information, reducing delays and allowing them to take protective action in response to this. Different modes of mobile services could feasibly be introduced in the short term (1 to 2yr), medium term (2 to 5yr) and longer term (5 to 10yr) but this cannot be realised without some strong developments and dedication to achieving this. x Voice based services should play a key role in warning dissemination as they were strongly preferred by the communities over text based messages. x A combination of different types of push and pull based mobile services (SMS, voice SMS, CBS and IVR) along with different dissemination pathways (national, district and local level) are required to allow information to flow from source to end-user as quickly and most effectively as possible. x IVR should play a key role in providing information to these communities on a demand basis, where both the service and the information within it should become more locally specific over time. All warnings should make reference to IVR as an additional source of information to get more detailed information on response actions. It should be of added value also in non-emergency times by providing weather, agricultural and flood preparedness information. x Although the community preferred CBS and Voice SMS to SMS, for the short term SMS is deemed the most suitable mode for pushing information. SMS and Voice SMS can be used to inform the social networks and locally subscribed users of potential flash floods (1 to 3 days). SMS can gradually be replaced by Voice SMS, which was much preferred by the communities. x CBS can play an effective role in alerting the end users of a threat and should be used in emergency situations (short lead times or the occurrence of an event) to reach the largest amount of people in the quickest time. This is expected to be possible in the long term. CBS currently still has technical issues, including the need to update cell tower infrastructure, make mobile phone handsets compatible and increase the impact of messages (currently no beep or large pop up message). x The Bangladesh Water Development Board (BWDB) is to play a key role in collecting information from the local level and in the warning dissemination process, which will increase for the medium and long term. Furthermore, the identified social networks at the community level (Imams, Ansar and village police, agricultural officers, Project Implementation Committee (PIC) members, microfinance managers and Union Information Service Centre (UISC) representatives) are to play a role in relaying the warning information to the to their target groups and the community people, after receiving it from the District level.

Conclusions and recommendations 112

9.2. Recommendations

The study revealed the huge potential for using mobile services for warning dissemination. The communities have access to and regularly use mobile phones. They would like to receive information through them as they currently have limited access to information. Recommendations are made for the institutional level and more specifically for the use of mobile services to allow for their effective integration in warning communication improving the warnings’ social performance.

9.2.1. Institutional level x The FFWC should continue their efforts to improve the quality, accuracy and lead time of the flash flood information with the support of RIMES and IWM. A feedback system should be put in place so information can be gathered from local social networks (indigenous knowledge/local conditions) and integrated with the institutional procedures i.e. with BWDB, UDMC, DAE or NGOs at field and district level. Water level readers (flood pillars) should be installed to achieve this. x BWDB at the district level should play a focal role in warning dissemination and strengthened by setting up a 24 hour BWDB flood control room to provide continued local information during the critical flash flood period. Improved co-ordination and co- operation at district level is required, predominately between the BWDB office, DAE and NGOs and can be integrated into the communication process using mobile services. x The Union Disaster Management Committee (UDMC) must be supported for the role of dissemination to the community level. The following local social networks are particularly important for connecting with the communities and supporting the UDMC; o Project implementation committee members (PIC) connected to BWDB district office o NGO volunteers (project groups or microfinance) connected to NGO district office o Sub assistant agricultural officers (SAAOs) connected to Department of Agricultural Extension (DAE) district office. x The dissemination system should complement and connect with any efforts already present at the community level. Efforts should be made to engage women in the system increasing their awareness through their identified connection with the microfinance groups and schools. x Training should be provided to networks at the local level (PIC, SAAO, NGO volunteers, Imams, UISC reps etc.) either through their own organisations (BWDB, DAE and NGOs) or directly from the DDM so they are involved in awareness raising, preparedness activities, feedback information, warning interpretation and aid for response. x Awareness raising programmes need to be prepared through mobile services (SMS, voice SMS and CBS) and local social networks (not limited to the Union Parishad and UDMC) to increase the end users understanding of the message and the associated response actions where the UISC can play a key role in doing this.

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x Financial assistance/support is needed to enable warning dissemination and warning response activities to be achieved more successfully through the local social networks. Special loans through the microfinance groups may be provided for flood preparedness and response at a subsidised rate.

9.2.2. Use of mobile services x The current methods of warning communication using mobile services in the DDM including IVR, SMS and CBS must be extended to target flash flood areas. Their current voice based services should be prioritised and therefore the current IVR service. However DDM must think seriously about integrating the push based Voice SMS into their system as this was widely accepted and preferred by the communities. CBS should be used for communicating warning alerts particularly with short lead times, once this is possible. x In order to maximise the current use of the IVR service for flash floods, the DDM should allow for a haor specific option where flash flood related and daily weather information is available. BWDB must take on a larger role in warning generation and dissemination, supported by the NGOs and DAE in order to provide more localised and beneficial information for the end users. In the long term DDM should aim to provide Upazila wise information on warnings and response actions but maintain useful information year round. x The FFWC should integrate different warning levels, associated with the accuracy and lead-time of the warning with associated symbols particularly for use in text based messages (SMS and CBS) to aid their understanding by the less educated end users. Local measuring units (hat and bighat) must be referred to rather than centimetres in warnings. x The warning must be disseminated to a number of levels (district, local social networks, UDMCs) and include the community people themselves to ensure the greatest transfer of information from national to local levels. Furthermore the messages should include some level of guidance information. x DDM should integrate their different mobile services by providing references to IVR in text-based messages. Efforts should be made to send SMS/Voice SMS to the local social networks for further dissemination and send either simplified text or voice based messages to the regular community people (as requested upon subscription). x DDM should set up a portal on their website to collect end users information for SMS and Voice SMS. This way the subscribers can indicate when they would like to get a message, if they would prefer symbols or text and if their phones are Bangla compatible. This should be done in co-operation with the UISC at the local level. Information packs on preparedness information and how to interpret the messages should be prepared. x Regulations should be put in place with mobile phone operators to ensure that all end users on different mobile phone operators can get access to warning messages. The infrastructure must be updated and the style of CBS message improved by changing it from a scroll message to a full screen message with an alerting tone. Efforts must be maintained to ensure Bangla and CBS messages becomes compatible on all handsets.

Conclusions and recommendations 114

9.3. Future research requirements x It would be interesting to focus a similar study on different age groups for instance young farmers, middle aged farmers and old farmers. Additionally, conducting discussions with teenagers and school children. This will give a better indication of how we can prepare to reach these different generations effectively with the different technologies. x Further research could be conducted on the willingness of the end users to call the IVR service and understand how to mobilise the end users to use the service. Studies could be done in areas where other IVR services have been implemented to understand how to make people aware of the services so that they use them in their everyday life. x Incorporating indigenous knowledge is a challenge for an early warning system and this needs further research in Bangladesh, especially for the flash flood areas. It would be beneficial to understand how the information from the human sensors in the community can be integrated with that of the experts in a bottom up approach to adapt the warning. x Targeted warning messages for identified individuals in different sectors (agriculture, education, infrastructure, microfinance) and for different types of floods could prove beneficial. Further research could focus on how to integrate this information into a decision support system for a national warning communication network using mobile services, to connect the right mode, message content and style to the correct user targeting their risk. x Further research on the use of Internet for flood warning dissemination through computers and mobile phones can be done to see if more detailed information with pictures, videos etc. could be beneficial at both the managerial level and for the community end users. This would be interesting in particular to focus on the younger generation who were found to have smart phones. x Data sharing relationships across between India and Bangladesh are important for the development of the flash flood early warning system. Research can focus on how to use mobile services to find linkages to collect real time data from inside the Indian border. x An in-depth socio-economic and vulnerability analysis was not undertaken as part of this research but could reveal interesting information on why these areas that are so exposed to flash floods and have so much agricultural importance yet have such little access to information to aid their ability to cope with flash floods.

In conclusion, it is vital that the community's need to access information through the mobile services is taken seriously by the Department of Disaster Management, Bangladesh Water Development Board and the Flood Forecasting and Warning Center. Current efforts in this regard must continue but further strengthening, mobilisation and coordination is required to ensure that these communities are effectively communicated to. The poor, isolated and vulnerable communities have the right to access to this information, information that can help them to protect their vulnerable livelihoods.

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Wiersma, J. W. F., Jagtman, H. M. & Ale B. J. M. (2008) Report on the Use of Cell Broadcast as a Citizen Alert System - Lessons from a two-year study in the Netherlands (2005- 2007), Delft University of Technology, Safety Science Group, The Netherlands.

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Flood warning communication using mobile services in flash flood communities of Bangladesh 121

Appendices Appendix A Checklists for the interviews at institutional level

1. Interview Questions - Focus Warning Characteristics Institute of Water Modelling (IWM), Flood Forecasting and Warning Center (FFWC), The Regional Integrated Multi- Hazard Early Warning System (RIMES), Bangladesh Water Development Board (BWDB) and Department for Agricultural Extension (DAE)

Note: Organisation name, date and person interviewed, documents collected.

Current flash flood early warning system (warning characteristics)

1. Can you give me some information on the flash flood scenario in Bangladesh?

2. What role does your organisation play in the flash flood early warning system?

3. Source: Where do you get the information from to create the warning?

4. Dissemination: Who is involved with creating the warning and how can the warning flow from source to end-user?

5. Mode: What communication modes are used to disseminate the warning from source to end user?

6. Message content: What information is included in the warning that is produced?

7. Hazard representation: How is the hazard and its severity represented in the message?

8. Lead time: What is the available lead-time for the warning?

9. Accuracy: What level of accuracy can be provided in the warning and how can this be represented in an understandable way to the end users?

10. Guidance information: Do you present guidance information in the warning messages?

11. Do you think it is possible to include indigenous warning information in a flash flood warning message?

Mobile services characteristics

1. Can you tell me about how mobile services are currently or previously used in your organisation to disseminate flood warning information?

2. What is your experience of SMS, CBS and IVR for the dissemination of warning messages?

3. Can you tell me some more information about the CBS and IVR? What role does your organisation play in dissemination information through this service?

4. Which mode of mobile services do you think is most beneficial for the dissemination of flood warning information?

5. Are the end users aware of the CBS and IVR services? Have there been any efforts to improve or increase this awareness?

Appendices 122

2. Interview questions - Focus Mobile Services Dept. Disaster Management (DDM), Comprehensive Disaster Management Programme (CDMP), Mobile Phone Providers (Teletalk) and Center for Environmental and Geographical Information Services (CEGIS)

Note: Organisation name, date and person interviewed, documents collected.

Warning Characteristics

1. Source: What is the source of information in the warning messages disseminated using mobile services CBS and IVR?

2. Dissemination: What is the role of your organisation for disseminating flood warning information?

3. Message content: What information are these services used to disseminate? Is guidance, preparatory or response information given in the warning?

4. Style: How is the information presented in the messages – language, words symbols etc.?

Mobile Services Characteristics

1. Accessibility: Can you tell be about how you are using mobile services for warning dissemination in Bangladesh?

2. What do you see as the advantages of SMS, CBS and IVR?

3. How are the CBS and IVR provided to the end users? Which service do you think is most accessible to the end users?

4. Is the CBS compatible with all handsets? Have you experienced any problems with this?

5. Is the CBS effective in disseminating to larger volumes of end users? Do you think this can also be done effectively using SMS?

6. Awareness: Are the public aware that these services are being offered? Are there any efforts to increase this awareness?

7. How popular are these services? Have you any reports on the success/failure of the system?

8. Message size and content: Do you think there is a limitation to the amount of information that can be provided?

9. Is there a special alert tone used for CBS?

10. Access to end users information: Do you currently need to access the end users information in order to disseminate to them?

11. Targeted information: Is the information provided geographically specific?

12. Two-way communication: Is there a possibility for two-way communication where the end users can text or call back to get more information? Is there a link between the IVR and the CBS to do this?

13. Frequency: What is the frequency of the CBS messages sent?

14. Multiple information source: Are the services used to disseminate other information during non-emergency times?

15. What additional information is provided in these messages aside from flood warnings? Is disaster management information included?

16. Infrastructure requirements: Do you experience problems with the infrastructure requirements to operate the services? Do the mobile phone networks and electricity supply remain operational during flood times?

17. Cost: How are the current systems funded? Is this sustainable?

Flood warning communication using mobile services in flash flood communities of Bangladesh 123

Appendix B List of interviewees and their associated institutions and organisations

List of interviewees at national and regional, institutions and organisations Institutions/Organisations Interviewed Type Name and position of professional interviewed National Level Flood Forecasting and Warning Center (FFWC), Government Mr. Md. Amirul Hossain Executive Director Bangladesh Water Development Board (BWDB), Dhaka Regional Integrated Multi Hazard Early Warning - Tonmoy Sarker System (RIMES), supporting FFWC, BWDB, Dhaka. Hydrological Modeller

Department of Disaster Management (DDR), Ministry Government Probir Kumar Das of Disaster Management and Relief (MDMR), Dhaka Programmer Comprehensive Disaster Management Programme Government Abdul Latif Khan (CDMP II), United Nations Development Programme Disaster Response Management Specialist (UNDP) Institute of Water Modelling (IWM) Government Sardar M Shah-Newaz Trust Director Flood Management Division Centre for Environmental and Geographical Government Ahmadul Hassan, Phd Senior Water Information Services (CEGIS) Trust Resources Planner Director of R&D division Teletalk Mobile Phone Operators Government Shakil Ahmed Deputy General Manager Tangir Ahmed Assistant Manager (VAS) Regional (District) Level Bangladesh Water Development Board (BWDB) Government Abdul Hai division office, Sunamganj Executive Engineer Dept. of Agricultural Extension (DAE), Sunamganj Government Dr. S.M. Afsaruzzaman, Deputy Director

Appendices 124

List of national and regional, institutions and organisations visited Institutions/Organisations Visited Type Name and position of professional interviewed National Level Regional Integrated Multi Hazard Early Warning - S.H.M. Fakhruddin System (RIMES), supporting FFWC, BWDB, Dhaka. Team Leader - Hydrology Disaster Management Information Centre (DMIC), Government Mr. Shahidul Islam Comprehensive Disaster Management Programme GIS Specialist (CDMP), DDR, MDMR, Dhaka Water Resources Planning Organization (WARPO), Government Mr. Saiful Alam Dhaka Principal Scientific Officer

Asian Disaster Preparedness Centre (ADPC), - Mohammed Ahsan Ullah Bangladesh Office, Dhaka CBDRM Specialist Murad Brillah GIS Specialist International Union for Conservation of Nature - Mohammad Amirul Shah (IUCN), Dhaka

Center for Natural Resources Studies (CNRS), Dhaka NGO M. Anisul Islam Director Regional (District) Level International Union for Conservation of Nature - Md. Shahidul Haque (IUCN), Project Office, Sunamaganj CBSM of Tanguar Haor Project CARE Bangladesh, Field Office, Sunamganj NGO Md. Rafiqul Islam Regional Program Manager Md. Mizanur Rahman Bhuiyan, Program Officer, SHOUHARDO II Program Caritas, Sylhet Regional Office NGO Mr. John Montu Palma Administrator Center for Natural Resources Studies (CNRS) Field NGO Muhammad Shafiqul Islam Office Sunamganj Team Leader SFRS Project Village Association Rural Development (VARD), NGO Md. Habibur Rahman Sunamganj CMDRR Project Leader

Flood warning communication using mobile services in flash flood communities of Bangladesh 125

Appendix C Focus group discussion checklist

Checklist for Focus Group Discussions

Study Area ______FGD with ______Date ______

Part 1: Flash Floods General (community characteristics) ~10mins

1. Please tell me about your experience of flash flooding in the area? History (timing, frequency, damages)

Elements at risk

Coping mechanisms

Improvements

Part 2: Existing & preferred flash flood warnings (warning characteristics) ~ 40 mins

2. Please tell me about the current flash flood warning system? Type of warnings available (Formal early warning, indigenous, warning message, combination)

Knowledge of FFWC, BWDB

Available lead time

Information source (FFWC (govt.), BWDB, Farmer/fishers board, UP reps, UDMC, Media (radio, TV, newspaper, neighbour/relative, mosque, local NGO, local committees)

Communication mode (TV/Radio, verbally, siren, mobile, flag,..)

Appendices 126

Message content (formal or indigenous) (Rainfall, water level upstream, guidance information)

Understanding

Response actions

Response constraints

Further dissemination of information (who, mode, message content)

3. How do you want the flash flood early warnings and the reasons why? Interest in improvements

Availability (Lead time preferred and accepted, reasons for each lead time)

Information source (FFWC (govt.), BWDB, Farmer/fishers board, UP reps, UDMC, Media (radio, TV, newspaper, neighbour/relative, mosque, local NGO)

Mode of communication (How?) (TV/Radio, verbally, siren, mobile, flag, ,..) Message content (Rainfall, water level, affected areas, guidance information)

Message style Bangla, English, local, symbols.. Accuracy (acceptance of false alarms)

Flood warning communication using mobile services in flash flood communities of Bangladesh 127

Part 3: Mobile Services for Warning Communication (mobile services characteristics) ~ 30 mins

“Mobile services can be used for flood warning dissemination using text messages where you can receive a 1) SMS about a flood warning if you subscribe or a 2) SMS message that everyone in the area will automatically get with no subscription (Cell Broadcasting Service) like a pop up scroll message on your screen or 3) you call a specific number to get warning information Interactive Voice Response or an 4) Voice SMS which can be sent to your phone but you need to subscribe”

4. How many of you use/have access to mobile phones? Type of mobile phone smart/regular? Network coverage? Does it work during floods?

5. What way do you use your mobile phone, calling or texting?

EXAMPLE 1 – SMS

“We are going to talk about SMS now, where a message is received like normal message on your phone. One of the problems with using SMS is that the message content is short and the words can be difficult to understand so you need to learn how to interpret them” Show example (as below)

The simple message says the expected area to be effected (this could be the Upazila, Union or Mauza name) here it is the union name, the current date and time and the expected rise in the river level is hats (2 bighat) (44cm) in the next 24 hours.

Solukabad

20-May-2013 14:05 ++

6. What elements do you like/dislike about these messages? What improvements do you think should be made? Like Dislike Improvements

7. Would you subscribe to get this information by SMS?

8. Would you be willing to pay for this SMS? How much?

Appendices 128

CELL BROADCASTING – EXAMPLE 2

“The next service offered by mobile service is similar to SMS except you automatically get the message and you don’t need to subscribe but the message has a limited size so abbreviated words are used. An example message is as follows with card on the meaning on the abbreviations.”

9. What elements do you like/dislike about these messages? What improvements do you think should be made?

Like Dislike Improvements

10. Would you like to get information in this way and how does it compare to SMS?

11. Would you be willing to pay for this CBS? How much?

EXAMPLE 3 INTERACTIVE VOICE RESPONSE

“The next service offered by mobile service is voice based where you need to call a specific number to get information and dial a code to get the specific information you want”

12. Have you ever used service like this before? Do you know about the health service or agricultural service that are offering information in this way? If so do you remember the number?

There is a service provided by the FFWC and BMD where you call specific number (10941) to get information on weather or floods. Distribute Bangla version and picture of phone number to call. Dial the number on the phone and present to participant. Asked to listen to the service. The below message was shown to the participants in the case that there was no message available in real time and to show people that wanted to see the message again.

Flood warning communication using mobile services in flash flood communities of Bangladesh 129

13. What elements do you like/dislike about this service? What improvements would you recommend?

Like Dislike Improvements

14. Would you like to get information in this way and how does it compare to SMS and CBS?

15. Would you be willing to pay for this CBS? How much?

16. If you got a similar message but as a Voice SMS delivered directly to your phone, would this be an improvement on the other modes?

Additional questions on using mobile services ~ 10mins

17. Which services do you think meet your needs the best?

18. How can we reach people that don’t have mobile services? Would you share the information?

19. Would you like to feed information back into the warning system and not only receive it? Share your indigenous knowledge or seeing the water levels rise.

Appendices 130

Appendix D Checklist for key informant interviews

Checklist for Key Informant Interviews

Note: Study area, date, name and position of interviewee and mobile number.

1. What is your connection with the community people – how strong is this, how often do you meet with them?

2. Source: Do you currently get flash flood information? If so from whom and in what way?

3. Dissemination: Do you disseminate this through your network to the community? Why or why not?

4. Would you like to get more flash flood warning information?

5. Do you think you could play a role in warning dissemination to the community level? What would constrain you to do this?

6. Mode: Introduce Cell Broadcasting Service (CBS) – do you think this is a good tool to communicate to the communities?

7. Awareness: Could you play a role in teaching the communities how to interpret the message?

8. Mode: Introduce IVR – What do you think about this service for the communities?

9. Do you think the communities would use it or you would use it to inform them?

10. Additional information: Would you like IVR to also include other information x Flood preparedness info x How to interpret warning messages and how to respond

11. Two way communication: It is important to get feedback information from the community in order to help the warning system develop. Would you provide information through IVR to do this? You can call the number and press 7 to provide…. x The current weather conditions or water level x Flood conditions x If you received a warning message or not x If the warning you received was accurate

12. Awareness/Preparedness: Would you like training on flood preparedness, message understanding, and response to share with the community?

13. Two-way communication: Would a flood pillar be useful for measuring WL, to integrate this with the system to better interpret the local conditions?

14. Targeted message: Would you like a message that was specific to these needs and give you directions on what actions to take?

15. Response constraints: What are the constraints/limitations to responding to a warning message?

16. Dissemination: Who do you think is the best person in the community to disseminate warning information effectively and responsibly?

Flood warning communication using mobile services in flash flood communities of Bangladesh 131

17. Accuracy: How would the community respond if the information was inaccurate i.e. did not match the conditions on the ground. – Would they lose trust?

18. Communication mode: Is radio used in the community? Would this be a good way to get warning information and other information?

19. Is there Union Information Service Center (UISC)? Is it used?

Appendix E Overview of focus group discussion participants

List of FGD’s, location, range of participant’s age and number of participants per group FGD Group Location (Union) Range of participant Number of age participants 1 Women Solukabad 18 – 50 16 2 Farmers Solukabad 22 – 80 10 3 Farmers Solukabad 26 - 67 8 4 Fisher-farmer Solukabad 21 - 80 10 5 UDMC Solukabad 28 - 60 15 6 Women Uttar Sreepur 28 - 45 22 7 Fisher-farmer Uttar Sreepur 25 - 90 22 8 Farmers Uttar Sreepur 21 - 65 11 9 Women Surma 22 - 47 22 10 UDMC Jagaddal 25 - 60 22 11 Farmers Jagaddal 36 - 44 8 12 Women Jagaddal 32 - 92 14 Appendix F List of key informant interviewees

List of key informants interviewed, their position and the place of interview SI. Name Position Place of interview Phone number 1 Abdul Hai PIC chairman UP Solukabad 01720497993 2 Mirulana Imam and teacher (Madras) UP Solukabad Not collected Shadridul 3 Johura Aktar Ansar (voluntary) UP Solukabad 01922956604 4 Abdul Alan Village police UP Solukabad 01920537921 5 Alal Uddin Union Information Service Center (UISC) UISC Solukabad 01727999847 manager 6 Rojob Ali Teacher Chelbon Govt. primary school 01753286323 7 Bellal Hossian SAAO sub assistant agriculture officer Interviewees residence 01924307545 Solukabad Biswhamapur 8 Mossiur Rahman BRAC area manager and BRAC MFI office BRAC office Biswhamapur 01730348381 manager

Appendices 132

Appendix G Flood Forecasting and Warning Centre Forecasting points

Note: Yellow dots indicate the forecasting points (source: FFWC website)

Flood warning communication using mobile services in flash flood communities of Bangladesh 133

Appendix H Experimental FFWC-IWM Flash Flood Bulletin

FLOOD INFORMATION CENTRE FLOOD FORECASTING & WARNING CENTRE BANGLADESH WATER DEVELOPMENT BOARD WAPDA BUILDING, 8TH FLOOR, DHAKA. E-mail: [email protected], Site: http://www.ffwc.gov.bd Tel: 9553118, 9550755 FLASH FLOOD CONDITION IN NE REGION AS ON May 2, 2013 Experimental RAINFALL

Significant rainfall (More than 50 mm) observed at Sunamganj and Lorergarh in the region and its adjoining areas in India during last 24 hours. There is possibility of occurring significant rainfall today and tomorrow (03 May 2013) in the adjoining Meghalaya area.

OUTLOOK

The Surma, Kushiyara, Manu and Bhugai rivers are in normal condition. There is a rising trend for today and tomorrow for Surma, Jadukata and Kushiyara rivers. Chance of flash flood in Sylhet and Sunamganj specially in the low lying areas.

STATIONS ABOVE DANGER LEVEL

No rivers above danger level recorded during last 24 hrs ending at 06:00 AM today.

GENERAL RIVER CONDITION

Monitored water Level 17 Steady 0 Rise 12 Not Reported 1 Fall 4 Above Danger Level 0

Model Forecast: 6, 12, 24 & 48 hours

Today 6-hr. 12-hr. 12-hr. 24-hr. 24-hr. 48-hr. 48-hr. forecast forecast +rise forecast +rise forecast +rise -fall -fall -fall Water Level (m PWD) 02-May 02-May 02-May 02-May 03-May 03-May 04-May 04-May River Station D.L. (m) 6:00 12:00 18:00 18:00 6:00 6:00 6:00 6:00 (m) (m) (m) (cm) (m) (cm) (m) (cm) Kushiyara AMALSHID 15.85 6.40 6.36 6.30 -10 6.26 -14 6.26 -14 Kushiyara SHEOLA 13.5 4.89 4.91 4.91 2 4.91 2 4.90 1 Kushiyara SHERPUR 9.00 3.42 3.44 3.46 4 3.47 5 3.45 3 Surma KANAIRGHAT 13.2 7.21 7.26 7.32 11 7.61 40 8.61 140 Surma SYLHET 11.25 4.33 4.42 4.51 18 4.73 40 5.28 95 Surma SUNAMGANJ 8.25 3.47 3.55 3.64 17 3.84 37 4.29 82 Kangsha JARIAJANJAIL 9.75 6.28 6.34 6.40 12 6.52 24 6.69 41

Supported By CDMP-II

Appendices 134

Appendix I Message available on Interactive Voice Response

Dial 10941:

Welcome to the weather forecasting service. To hear the weather forecast for the sailors press 1, To hear the alarms for the river ports press 2, to hear the daily weather forecast press 3, to hear the special news about cyclone press 4, to hear the news about floods press 5, press 6 to return to the main menu.

Press 3 – Daily Weather Bulletin Hello, this is the Bangladesh Meteorological Department Dhaka, today from 6pm the weather forecast for the next 24 hours is as follows. Moderate to heavy rain with strong winds in some areas of Rajshahi, Rangeur, Sylhet, Khulna and Dhaka districts and few areas of Braisal and Chittagong may occur. And also in some areas of the country rain or stormy rain will occur. Low pressure is continuing in the areas of Rangamati, Chadpur, Maizdipur, Feni, Rajshahj, Kishoreganj and Khulna and is expected to continue. The day and night temperature of the country will remain the constant.

Press 5 – Flood forecast Hello, Welcome to the Flood Forecasting and Warning Centre of Bangladesh of the Bangladesh Water Development Board. Today is 20th June 2013. According to the news at 6am today all observed rivers of the country is flowing normally. Return to this menu again press 6 and for main menu press 0.

Flood warning communication using mobile services in flash flood communities of Bangladesh 135

Appendix J Community characteristics (chapter 6) supplementary information

Elements at risk (exposure) Sunamganj lies within the Haor Basin where the agricultural sector is particularly vulnerable to flash flooding. During the pre monsoon period, flash floods occur in Bangladesh due to the excessive rainfall in the north eastern part of Bangladesh. The map below shows the areas in Sunamganj that are classified as being exposed to severe, moderate and low flash floods, the map additionally shows the land use in the area. To explain, low flash flooding represents that a flash flood has occurred at least twice in the last 10 years, moderate flash flooding means that a flash flood has occurred 3 – 4 times or more in 10 years and severe flash flooding means that flash flood has occurred 5 or more times in the last 10 years (BARC, 2013).

Hazard and land use map of Sunamganj (Source CEGIS and BARC)

Appendices 136

The figures below show the baseline information and available resources of each Union (Solukabad, Jagagddal, Uttar Sreepur and Surma) in the field study area. The natural resources in the study areas consist of the agricultural land used for farming and open water bodies used for fishing. In Uttar Sreepur it is noticeable that there is a large amount of open water bodies (beels). It is also important to note that Uttar Sreepur is right at the foothills of the Meghalaya mountains at the Indian border meaning that it has a higher chance of experiencing the ‘flashy’ effects of the flash floods in comparison to Jagaddal which is located much further south in Sunamganj in the lower lying area. The settlements are located nearby roads, the embankments and areas where facilities are present. These settlements are quite scattered, requiring people to travel to reach schools, mosques and markets.

The facilities that are available in all the unions include mosques, schools and markets (growth centres). However, these are limited and are at risk of closure as a result from floods. Schools are commonly used as flood shelters. Financial resources in the community include NGO’s with micro-credit groups, financially solvent persons and interpersonal loans are common. This is important for post flood recovery and the participants spoke of using these resources during the recovery process after flooding.

Solukabad Union Baseline map (Source CEGIS and CDMP)

Flood warning communication using mobile services in flash flood communities of Bangladesh 137

Jagaddal Union Baseline map (Source CEGIS and CDMP)

The main source of drinking water in each Union are tube wells (90%) which are installed by people themselves, the government or NGO’s (BBS, 2011). The electricity supply in the unions varies from Solukabad (23.7%), Jagaddal (39.4%), Uttar Sreepur (25.5%) and Surma (39.2%) (BBS, 2011). This is important for access to TV and charging mobile phones (however this is usually done at a local shop by solar power) for warning dissemination.

Appendices 138

Uttar Sreepur Union Baseline map (Source CEGIS and CDMP)

Flood warning communication using mobile services in flash flood communities of Bangladesh 139

Surma Union Baseline map (Source CEGIS and CDMP) The rural communities in Bangladesh have limited options for housing, some live in homes which are much more vulnerable to flooding and susceptible to damage, locally named semi puka and kutcha or those which are less vulnerable to flooding named pucka. These different types of houses are built with different types of materials. A pucka is constructed with bricks and has a concrete roof while a semi pucka uses earthen material combined with some bricks and a tin roof and a kutcha also comprises of earthen material but combined with bamboo and straw roofs. These different house types are assumed to represent different levels of susceptibility to the impacts of flooding. The figure below shows the distribution of house type per Union. It is clear that kutcha, the most vulnerable, is the dominant house type representing at least 80% of the homes in each Union.

From this information it is clear that there are a number of resources/assets available within these communities that can both increase their vulnerability and their capacity to deal with floods. The lack of roads can mean that people cannot perform response actions such as collecting their crops as effectively as they could with better facilities.

Appendices 140

Pucka (brick and concrete) Semipucka (earthen, some bricks, tin) Kutcha (bamboo and straw, earthen) 100 80 s e

m 60 o h

f

o 40

% 20 0 SHOLUKABAD JAGADDAL SURMA SREEPUR NORTH Study Location (Union)

Type of homes owned by the population (BBS, 2011)

Past experiences Flash floods have occurred regularly in the past years in Sunamganj, in which significant damages to the agriculture sector occurred, as shown the table below (from 1996 to 2010). The table shows the year that the flash flood occurred, the date of water entrance into the haor, the date that the boro crop became inundated and the approximate damages to this boro crop as a result.

History of flash floods in Sunamganj (source: CNRS (2008) and DC administration)

YEAR WATER ENTRANCE IN INUNDATION OF DATE WHEN % OF CROPS HAOR BORO WENT UNDER WATER DAMAGE

1996 16th March 18th March 75% 1997 22nd May 24th May 15% 1998 20th May 23rd May 40% 1999 3rd May 6th May 45% 2000 28th April 30th April 70% 2001 27th April 30th April 75% 2002 14th April 18th April 70% 2003 27th May 30th May 20% 2004 13th April 15th April 90% 2010 30th March 1st April 70%

Flash floods arriving before the 15th of May, cause more damages to the agriculture than those arriving after. In 2004, flash flood arrived unexpectedly early; between 13-15th April and destroyed 90% of boro crops in Sunamganj district. Up to 60% of the different types of roads were damaged by flood in 2004. Educational institutions were closed due to the flooding, 5- 10% houses totally, and 30-40% houses partially, damaged, 70% tube-wells became inactive for drinking water, 60% peoples were became jobless and 15-20% affected peoples were migrated and 30-35% poultry/duck and livestock’s were fully diminished by the devastating flood that occurred in 2004 (CNRS, 2008).

Flood warning communication using mobile services in flash flood communities of Bangladesh 141

In 2010 a flash flood also arrived early - between 30th March to April 1st. Most of the haors of Sunamganj district were inundated by the overtopping of the embankments and this damaged the standing boro crop. Homesteads, household assets and other public infrastructure were also damaged. There was a serious crisis of employment opportunities for people who used to work as day labourer for agriculture, there were temporary displacement of the families, difficulties to access food, water and sanitation facilities, disruption to education, health care services, communication and market functioning (CNRS, 2008). As a result, severe food scarcity and malnutrition (children and women in particular) became a problem. The table below shows the number of affected households, the number of people that died, the road damages and the damages to educational institutes in the chosen study areas. It is clear that loss of life is a less frequent problem than damage to agriculture.

Damages in 2010 flash flood Sunamanj [source: DC administration, Sunamganj]

NAME OF UPAZILA AFFECTED DEAD DAMAGED OF DAMAGED OF HOUSEHOLD IN (NO.) ROADS (KM) EDUCATIONAL NOS. INSTITUTIONS fully partially fully partially fully partially Sunamganj Sadar 0 0 0 0 0 Derai 460 1218 0 0 0 Tahirpur 0 0 4 20 2

Bishwambarpur 150 560 0 17 2

Social characteristics It is clear from the figure below that for each study area the age structure is similar. It is important that a warning message is understandable to those in the more vulnerable age groups (children and elderly). On average 30% of the population is below 10 years of age and over 60’s only represents 5 to 7% in the study areas. These age groups could prove difficult to target with warnings using mobile services because they may have lower accessibility to them and more difficulty in understanding them.

The population characteristics of the pilot areas can be seen in the figure below where the male and female distribution of the population is also visible. It is clear that both male and female groups are proportional at the Union level. The highest population is at Uttar Sreepur Union (50,061), second Solukabad (37,375), third Surma (31,511) and fourth Jagaddal (29,641). It was clear in the field visit to Uttar Sreepur that it was more densely populated than the other communities with poor infrastructure and much more isolated than the other unions.

It can be expected that the denser the population, the more possible negative impacts of the flash floods can occur. There will be more potential for loss of assets and human life making it more vulnerable; however there may also be more capacity for one to recover. In addition, more people need to be informed but the spread of the information can be quicker if there are more people to share the information received.

Appendices 142

100

90 n

o 65 i

t 80 a

u 60-64 p

o 70 p 50-59 l a t

o 60

t 30-49

f o 50 25-29 %

n

o 20-24 i i 40 t

u 15-19 b i r

t 30 s

i 10-14 d

e 20 g 5-9 A 10 0-4

0 SHOLUKABAD JAGADDAL SURMA SREEPUR NORTH Study Location Union Age distribution of the union level population (BBS, 2011)

60000 Male population Female population 50000

n 40000 o i t a l 30000 u p o

P 20000

10000

0 SHOLUKABAD JAGADDAL SURMA SREEPUR NORTH Study location (Union) Population (male and female) for each study location (Union) (BBS, 2011)

Occupation The figure below shows the percentage of the population that are employed (aged 7 or above) in these three sectors. It is clear that agriculture dominates the employment sector in the study location Unions. The Union with the highest proportion of the population employed in agriculture is in Jagaddal (93%) and the lowest being Surma (58%).

This confirms that it is the agricultural sector that is at high risk from the impacts of flash flooding. Alternative livelihood options will increase the capacity to recover from flood event. As discussed in the preparedness and coping capacity section, many community people are

Flood warning communication using mobile services in flash flood communities of Bangladesh 143

forced to switch jobs after the flash floods have occurred due to the damaged crops and land. Farmers find work as day labours and often migrate to nearby cities in order to survive.

Agriculture Industry Services

100 n o i t a

l 80 u p o p

60 d e y o

l 40 p m e

f 20 o

% 0 SHOLUKABAD JAGADDAL SURMA SREEPUR NORTH Study Location Union Distribution of occupations among the employed (BBS, 2011)

Education The average literacy rates of the four unions where the community level FGD’s were conducted is shown in the figure below. It can be seen that they range from 28% in Solukabad to 37% in Jagaddal. The average literacy rate over the four unions is 32%. During the field visit a limited number of FGD’s information was collected on the level of education of the participants in each union indicative of their ability to read and write. This is useful to understand how representative the data collection was in the FGD and also to verify this information at the community level. The results were found to largely agree with that of the BBS survey (2011). In Solukabad Union, 30% of one FGD participants were able to read and write comparing this to the 28% found in the BBS survey. In Surma the 45% of the participants could read and write a higher result comparing to the Union average of 32%. In Uttar Sreepur this information was collected from all three FGD giving an average of 42% being able to read and write. Again this result is higher than the Union average of 29%. No data was collected from the Jagaddal Union participants due to time constraints but it is expected to be similar to the Union average of 37%.

100 e h t

f 80 o n

o i %

60 t e a t l a u

r 40

p y o y p c 20 r e t i

L 0 SHOLUKABAD JAGADDAL SURMA SREEPUR NORTH Study Location (union)

Literacy rates for each study location (BBS, 2011)

Appendices 144