Flood warning communication using mobile services in flash flood communities of Bangladesh Lydia Cumiskey MSc Thesis WSE-FRM.13-02 August 2013 Flood warning communication using mobile services in flash flood communities of Bangladesh Master of Science Thesis by Lydia Cumiskey Supervisors Micha Werner, Phd, MSc (UNESCO-IHE & Deltares) Karen Meijer, Phd, MSc (Deltares) Dick van den Bergh, MSc (Deltares) Mentors Fida Malik Khan, MSc (CEGIS) Examination committee Prof. Arthur Mynett, Phd, MSc (UNESCO-IHE) Micha Werner, Phd, MSc (UNESCO-IHE & Deltares) Karen Meijer, Phd, MSc (Deltares) This research is done for the partial fulfilment of requirements for the Master of Science degree at the UNESCO-IHE Institute for Water Education, Delft, the Netherlands Delft August 2013 ©2013by Lydia Cumiskey. All rights reserved. No part of this publication or the information contained herein may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, by photocopying, recording or otherwise, without the prior permission of the author. Although the author and UNESCO-IHE Institute for Water Education have made every effort to ensure that the information in this thesis was correct at press time, the author and UNESCO-IHE do not assume and hereby disclaim any liability toiv any party for any loss, damage, or disruption caused by errors or omissions, whether such errors or omissions result from negligence, accident, or any other cause. Abstract Communicating warning information so it is understood and responded to at the community level is a key step in the flood forecasting, warning and response process. Effective communication is, however, challenging, despite the penetration of communication technologies such as mobile phones. The North East region of Bangladesh is a high risk area for flash flooding. Although continued efforts are being made to develop a warning system, a warning communication system remains undeveloped. This research presents the potential use of mobile services to effectively communicate flash flood warnings to improve the warnings’ social performance. In the context of this research social performance refers to improving the warnings communication using mobile services with the aim to initiate a protective response. Information was gathered on the current flash flood warning system and the use of mobile services from interviews and meetings with stakeholders at national and regional level. Understanding the characteristics of the communities, their current access to warning information and their needs for warning communication using mobile services were obtained through 12 focus group discussions (FGDs) with different end user groups (farmers, women, fisher-farmers and Union Disaster Management Committees) at four different locations in the North East of Bangladesh and 8 key informant interviews (KIIs) in the area. Warning messages through mobile technologies, Short Messaging Service (SMS), Cell Broadcasting Service (CBS) and Interactive Voice Response (IVR) were demonstrated in the FGDs. The study firstly demonstrates that the communities are really in demand of flash flood warning information and the current efforts to improve this are not being satisfactorily achieved at the community level. Secondly, it was revealed that mobile services are the preferred mode of warning communication in these areas at risk but warnings must be sent before the time of impact, transmit present and forecasted rainfall and water level and also disseminate guidance information. It was understood that voice based services must be a key part of the warning communication system as the communities preferred voice based IVR over SMS and CBS, while Voice SMS was preferred over all other services. The IVR service (demand based) needs to be improved making it more specific to the targeted area and supplemented with push based services. Voice SMS is ideal for targeting individuals and can contain sufficient information while CBS should be used for warnings with short lead times to quickly disseminate to large numbers, once the constraints are resolved. Text based messages need to be simple, use symbols and refer to the IVR for more information. The main obstacles identified for utilising mobile services included the inability to send Bangla text messages, the need for infrastructure and handset updates for CBS and the need for co-operation between mobile phone companies. Bangladesh Water Development Board (BWDB) district offices and local social networks need to play a more proactive role in the dissemination process at the community level but require mobilisation and institutional strengthening to achieve this. A feedback system is required to integrate indigenous knowledge and local conditions. Additionally awareness raising activities, which can be integrated through the local social networks, are prerequisite to engage the end users. Extra emphasis must be placed on providing these communities with flash flood information, allowing them to protect their vulnerable livelihoods. Key words: flash flood early warning, mobile services, communication, Bangladesh. v Acknowledgements This thesis was a journey, one that I will never forget, and one that could not have been possible without all the help I received along the way. I would like to especially thank my supervisors Karen Meijer (Deltares) and Micha Werner (UNESCO-IHE/Deltares) for supporting me each step of the way with this study, your knowledge and feedback was truly valued both in formulating the research and providing feedback on numerous revisions of my chapters. Thank you for sharing your knowledge and teaching me how to develop mine. I would like to express my sincere thanks to Dick van de Bergh (Deltares) and Fida Malik Khan (CEGIS) for giving me the opportunity to begin this journey and pursue my wish to conduct a study, focusing on the needs of community people in Bangladesh. Their encouragement, support and mentoring was invaluable throughout my journey. Further thanks to my Erasmus Mundus Flood Risk Management Scholarship and Deltares for the financial support of this research. To each and every farmer, fisher, housewife, UDMC member and many others in the rural communities of Sunamganj, I am truly grateful for the warm welcome and precious time you gave to me, while conducting my fieldwork. Nonetheless, this fieldwork would not have been possible without the support of many different people and organisations. Firstly my greatest thanks go to my interpreter Saifiquil Islam at CNRS, for accompanying me during the fieldwork and providing me with his devoted support, wealth of knowledge and friendship. Additionally, I would like to express my gratitude to the local NGO’s, Caritas, VARD and CARE Bangladesh in Sunamganj and technical partner RIMES, for allowing to me to visit their project areas and offering me an overwhelming amount of support in arranging the community visits. Additionally, special thanks to Rubel at CEGIS, for his assistance in arranging the fieldwork and always keeping my sprits high. Without your combined patience, hard work and perseverance, the fieldwork for this thesis could not have been possible. Furthermore in Bangladesh, thanks to everyone who gave me their time to interview them, in particular those at the FFWC, DDM, CMDP and RIMES. A warm thanks to Mr. Saiful Alam (WARPO) for his mentoring and friendship throughout my time in and out of Bangladesh, giving me valuable comments and feedback on my work, allowing me to maintain the Bangladeshi perspective throughout. To my CEGIS colleagues, who were right there by my side in Bangladesh for arranging formalities, answering endless questions and queries, and helping me analyse my results. A special thanks to Kamruzzaman Akand (CEGIS), for his assistance in producing the maps for this report. I found many friendships at CEGIS and look forward to sharing time with them all again. To my Flood Risk Management (FRM) classmates, boyfriend, family and friends, thank you for your encouragement and belief in me and what I could achieve on this journey. Thank you for sticking with me and understanding when my thesis always seemed to get first preference, over spending time with you. Special thanks to my Bangladeshi classmates Tamim and Atiqul who inspired me to learn about, and discover their country. During my time in Bangladesh and Deltares I encountered an uncountable number of supportive people, to each and every one my greatest thanks applies. vi Table of Contents Abstract v Acknowledgements vi List of Figures ix List of Tables x Abbreviations xi Glossary xiii 1. Introduction 1 1.1. Background 1 1.2. Problem formulation and motivation 2 1.3. Research questions 5 1.4. Research approach 6 1.5. Innovation and practical value 7 2. Warning communication and response using mobile services 8 2.1. Social performance 8 2.2. Characteristics of the warning 12 2.3. Characteristics of mobile services 17 2.4. Characteristics of the community 23 2.5. Identified factors affecting social performance 27 3. Methodology 28 3.1. Research tools 28 3.2. Selection of case study sites and participants 31 3.3. Data analysis 34 4. Flash flood early warning characteristics 35 4.1. Flood early warning in Bangladesh 35 4.2. Flash flood early warning 37 4.3. Community response 47 4.4. Identified implications for effective warning communication using mobile services 48 5. Mobile services characteristics for flood early warning in Bangladesh 51 5.1. Mobile services in Bangladesh 51 5.2. Short Message Service (SMS) 52 5.3. Cell Broadcasting Service (CBS) 54 5.4. Interactive Voice Response (IVR) 55 vii 5.5. Identified implications for effective warning communication using mobile services 57 6. Characteristics of the flash flood communities 61 6.1. Elements at risk (exposure) 61 6.2. Past experiences 62 6.3. Preparedness and coping mechanisms 63 6.4. Risk awareness 65 6.5. Social networks and ties 66 6.6. Beliefs and motivation 68 6.7. Trust and awareness of institutions 68 6.8. Individual social characteristics 69 6.9. Occupation 69 6.10.