Report

FEDERAL POLITICS IN THE GREATER AREA

October 16th, 2019 DATE NUMÉRO DE PROJET METHODOLOGY

METHODOLOGY

Web survey using computer-assisted Web interviewing (CAWI) technology.

From October 10th to October 14th, 2019

1,003 residents of the (GTA), 18 years of age or older, who have the right to vote in , randomly recruited from LEO’s online panel.

Using data from the 2016 Census, results were weighted according to age, gender, region and level of education in order to ensure a representative sample of the population.

No margin of error can be associated with a non-probability sample (Web panel in this case). However for comparative purposes, a probability sample of 1,003 respondents would have a margin of error of ±3.09%, 19 times out of 20.

The research results presented here are in full compliance with the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements.

2 METHODOLOGY

Notes on Reading this Report

The numbers presented have been rounded up. However, the numbers before rounding were used to calculate the sums presented and might therefore not correspond to the manual addition of these numbers.

In this report, data in bold red characters indicate a significantly lower proportion than that of other respondents. Conversely, data in bold green characters indicate a significantly higher proportion that that of other respondents.

A more detailed methodology is presented in the appendix.

If you have questions about the data presented in this report, please contact Christian Bourque, Associate and Executive Vice-Present at the following e-mail address: [email protected]

3 FEDERAL VOTING INTENTIONS IN THE GREATER TORONTO AREA

Q1A/Q1B. If FEDERAL elections were held today, for which political party would you be most likely to vote? Would it be for...? In the event a respondent had no opinion, the following prompting question was asked: Even if you have not yet made up your mind, for which of the following political parties would you be most likely to vote? Would it be for... Base: All respondents

TOTAL TOTAL Toronto Rest of Eligible Decided Male Female 18-34 35-54 55+ City GTA voters voters Weighted n = 1,003 869 427 442 264 311 294 424 445 Unweighted n = 1,003 869 450 419 244 357 268 426 443 ...'s Liberal Party of 34% 39% 40% 39% 33% 42% 42% 42% 37% Canada ...'s Conservative 27% 31% 33% 29% 21% 33% 37% 24% 37% Party of Canada ...'s New Democratic 17% 19% 15% 23% 33% 18% 8% 23% 15% Party of Canada ...'s of 6% 7% 7% 7% 9% 4% 9% 8% 6% Canada ...Maxime Bernier's People's Party 3% 3% 4% 2% 3% 3% 3% 2% 4% of Canada …for another party 0% 1% 1% 0% 1% 1% 0% 0% 1% I would not vote 3% ------I would cancel my vote 1% ------I don’t know 5% ------Refusal 4% ------

4 FINAL CHOICE

Q2. Is this your final choice or are you likely to change your mind? Based on Based on Based on Based on Based on Base: Respondents who were able people people people people people to say which party they intend to who intend who intend who intend who intend who intend vote for. to vote for to vote for to vote for to vote for to vote for (weighted n = 860, unweighted the LPC the CPC the NDP the GPC the PPC (weighted n = (weighted n = (weighted n = (weighted n = 63 (weighted n = 25 n = 860) 341 269 166 unweighted n = unweighted n = unweighted n = unweighted n = unweighted n = 56) 27*) 345) 280) 155)

TOTAL

Final choice 75% 78% 83% 61% 69% 52%

I'm likely to change my mind 14% 11% 9% 24% 18% 41%

I don't know / Refusal 11% 10% 8% 16% 13% 8%

*Given the small number of respondents (n<30) data are presented for illustrative purposes only. 5 SECOND CHOICE

Q3. Whether your choice is final or not, what would be your second choice among the following political parties? Would it be…? Base: Respondents who were able to say which party they intend to vote for. (weighted n = 860, unweighted n = 860)

...Jagmeet Singh's of Canada 26%

...Justin Trudeau's 17%

...Elizabeth May's 15%

...Andrew Scheer's Conservative Party of Canada 9%

...Maxime Bernier's People's Party of Canada 7%

None of them 19%

DNK / Refusal 8%

Toronto TOTAL Male Female 18-34 35-54 55+ Rest of GTA City Weighted n = 860 418 441 258 308 293 422 437 Unweighted n = 860 443 417 239 354 267 423 437 ...Jagmeet Singh's New Democratic Party of Canada 26% 26% 26% 26% 29% 23% 25% 27% ...Justin Trudeau's Liberal Party of Canada 17% 14% 19% 24% 16% 11% 15% 18% ...Elizabeth May's Green Party of Canada 15% 14% 15% 14% 17% 14% 15% 15% ...Andrew Scheer's Conservative Party of Canada 9% 12% 6% 12% 8% 8% 8% 10% ...Maxime Bernier's People's Party of Canada 7% 9% 4% 9% 5% 6% 7% 6% None of them 19% 17% 22% 7% 17% 33% 21% 17% Don’t know / Refusal 8% 7% 8% 9% 9% 6% 8% 7%

6 SECOND CHOICE – BY VOTING INTENTIONS

Q3. Whether your choice is final or not, what would be your second choice among the following political parties? Would it be…? Base: Respondents who intend to vote for the LPC, the NDP, the CPC, the PPC or the GPC

TOTAL LPC CPC NDP GPC PPC

Weighted n = 860 336 269 166 63 25 Unweighted n = 860 342 280 155 56 27* ...Jagmeet Singh's New Democratic Party of - 5% Canada 26% 44% 17% 49% ...Justin Trudeau's Liberal Party of Canada 17% - 19% 45% 19% 22%

...Elizabeth May's Green Party of Canada 15% 15% 13% 23% - 12% ...Andrew Scheer's Conservative Party of 11% - 10% 16% 54% Canada 9% ...Maxime Bernier's People's Party of Canada 7% 3% 13% 6% 1% -

None of them 19% 18% 30% 10% 11% 7%

Don’t know / Refusal 8% 9% 9% 6% 5% 0%

*Given the small number of respondents (n<30) data are presented for illustrative purposes only. 7 BEST PRIME MINISTER

Q4. In your opinion, which federal party leader would make the best Prime Minister of Canada? Base: All respondents (n=1,003)

TOTAL 33% 20% 17% 5% 3% Toronto City 35% 19% 20% 6% 3% Rest of GTA 31% 21% 15% 5% 3%

Note: The complement to 100% corresponds to “Other,” None of them,” “I don’t know” and “Refusal” responses. 8 ANDREW SCHEER’S LEADERSHIP STYLE AS PRIME MINISTER

Q5A. If elected Prime Minister, do you think Andrew Scheer will have the same leadership style as ? Base: All respondents (n=1,003)

19%

47%

34%

Yes No DNK / Refusal

Toronto TOTAL Male Female 18-34 35-54 55+ Rest of GTA City Weighted n = 1,003 479 524 299 366 338 462 541 Unweighted n = 1,003 503 500 280 416 307 464 539 Yes 47% 45% 49% 50% 48% 44% 54% 41% No 34% 40% 28% 31% 32% 39% 32% 35% Don’t know / Refusal 19% 15% 23% 19% 20% 18% 14% 24%

9 ANDREW SCHEER’S LEADERSHIP STYLE AS PRIME MINISTER – BY VOTING INTENTIONS Q5A. If elected Prime Minister, do you think Andrew Scheer will have the same leadership style as Doug Ford? Base: Respondents who intend to vote for the LPC, the NDP, the CPC, the PPC or the GPC

TOTAL LPC CPC NDP GPC PPC

Weighted n = 1,003 341 269 166 63 25 Unweighted n = 1,003 345 280 155 56 27*

Yes 47% 66% 22% 57% 58% 42%

No 34% 18% 66% 23% 27% 51%

Don’t know / Refusal 19% 16% 11% 20% 14% 7%

*Given the small number of respondents (n<30) data are presented for illustrative purposes only. 10 DESIRE TO REOPEN THE DEBATE ON ABORTION IN CANADA

Q5B. If they form the next federal government, do you want the Conservatives to reopen the debate on abortion in Canada? Base: All respondents (n=1,003)

22% 18%

60%

Yes No DNK / Refusal

Toronto TOTAL Male Female 18-34 35-54 55+ Rest of GTA City Weighted n = 1,003 479 524 299 366 338 462 541 Unweighted n = 1,003 503 500 280 416 307 464 539 Yes 18% 21% 15% 30% 16% 10% 17% 19% No 60% 59% 61% 49% 60% 69% 65% 56% Don’t know / Refusal 22% 20% 24% 21% 24% 21% 18% 25%

11 DESIRE TO REOPEN THE DEBATE ON ABORTION IN CANADA – BY VOTING INTENTIONS Q5B. If they form the next federal government, do you want the Conservatives to reopen the debate on abortion in Canada? Base: Respondents who intend to vote for the LPC, the NDP, the CPC, the PPC or the GPC

TOTAL LPC CPC NDP GPC PPC

Weighted n = 1,003 341 269 166 63 25 Unweighted n = 1,003 345 280 155 56 27*

Yes 18% 14% 23% 20% 21% 39%

No 60% 71% 56% 63% 58% 41%

Don’t know / Refusal 22% 16% 21% 17% 21% 21%

*Given the small number of respondents (n<30) data are presented for illustrative purposes only. 12 PERSPECTIVE THAT MOST WORRIES RESIDENTS OF THE GREATER TORONTO AREA Q6. Which of the following two perspectives worries you the most? Base: All respondents

49%

33%

19%

The Conservatives coming back to power Four more years of Trudeau’s Liberals DNK / Refusal in

Toronto TOTAL Male Female 18-34 35-54 55+ Rest of GTA City Weighted n = 1,003 479 524 299 366 338 462 541 Unweighted n = 1,003 503 500 280 416 307 464 539 The Conservatives coming back to power in 49% 47% 50% 57% 45% 45% 55% 43% Ottawa Four more years of Trudeau’s Liberals 33% 37% 29% 22% 36% 39% 33% 33% I don’t know 15% 14% 15% 18% 15% 11% 10% 18% Refusal 4% 2% 5% 3% 4% 4% 2% 5%

13 PERSPECTIVE THAT MOST WORRIES RESIDENTS OF THE GREATER TORONTO AREA – BY VOTING INTENTIONS Q6. And, which of the following two perspectives worries you the most? Base: Respondents who intend to vote for the LPC, the NDP, the CPC, the PPC or the GPC

TOTAL LPC CPC NDP GPC PPC

Weighted n = 1,003 341 269 166 63 25 Unweighted n = 1,003 345 280 155 56 27* The Conservatives coming back to power 49% 80% 14% 64% 51% 35% in Ottawa

Four more years of Trudeau’s Liberals 33% 7% 75% 22% 28% 65%

I don’t know 15% 11% 9% 13% 21% 0%

Refusal 4% 2% 2% 1% 0% 0%

*Given the small number of respondents (n<30) data are presented for illustrative purposes only. 14 ANTICIPATED WINNER OF THE NEXT ELECTIONS

Q7. Who do you think will win the next election? Is it... Base: All respondents (n=1,003)

...Justin Trudeau's Liberal Party of Canada 56%

...Andrew Scheer's Conservative Party of Canada 30%

...Jagmeet Singh's New Democratic Party of Canada 9%

...Elizabeth May's Green Party of Canada 2%

...Maxime Bernier's People's Party of Canada 2%

Toronto TOTAL Male Female 18-34 35-54 55+ Rest of GTA City Weighted n = 1,003 479 524 299 366 338 462 541 Unweighted n = 1,003 503 500 280 416 307 464 539 ...Justin Trudeau's Liberal Party of Canada 56% 56% 56% 51% 57% 60% 55% 58% ...Andrew Scheer's Conservative Party of Canada 30% 32% 29% 22% 34% 34% 31% 30% ...Jagmeet Singh's New Democratic Party of Canada 9% 7% 12% 20% 6% 4% 12% 8% ...Elizabeth May's Green Party of Canada 2% 2% 2% 3% 1% 2% 1% 2% ...Maxime Bernier's People's Party of Canada 2% 3% 1% 5% 2% 1% 1% 3%

15 ANTICIPATED WINNER OF THE NEXT ELECTIONS – BY VOTING INTENTIONS Q7. Who do you think will win the next election? Is it... Base: Respondents who intend to vote for the LPC, the NDP, the CPC, the PPC or the GPC

TOTAL LPC CPC NDP GPC PPC

Weighted n = 1,003 341 269 166 63 25 Unweighted n = 1,003 345 280 155 56 27* ...Justin Trudeau's Liberal Party of Canada 56% 91% 26% 44% 60% 13% ...Andrew Scheer's Conservative Party of 42% Canada 30% 4% 73% 17% 15% ...Jagmeet Singh's New Democratic Party of 8% 7% Canada 9% 3% 1% 37% ...Elizabeth May's Green Party of Canada 2% 1% 1% 2% 9% 0%

...Maxime Bernier's People's Party of Canada 2% 1% 0% 0% 8% 39%

*Given the small number of respondents (n<30) data are presented for illustrative purposes only. 16 APPENDIX DETAILED METHODOLOGY

Sampling Frame

Participants were randomly selected from LEO’s online panel.

Leger owns and manages an Internet panel that includes more than 400,000 coast to coast. An online panel consists of Web users profiled according to different demographic variables. The majority of Leger’s panel members (60%) were randomly recruited over the phone in the past ten years, which makes this panel very similar to the current Canadian population on a number of demographic characteristics. Moreover, 35% of panellists were recruited through affiliate programs and 5% through partner campaigns and programs.

To be eligible, respondents were required to be 18 years of age or older and have the right to vote in Canada.

18 DETAILED METHODOLOGY

Weighted and Unweighted Sample

The following tables present the demographic distribution of respondents according to gender, age, region and level of education.

GENDER Unweighted Weighted Male 503 479 Female 500 524

AGE Unweighted Weighted Between 18 and 34 280 299 Between 35 and 55 416 366 55 or over 307 338

REGION Unweighted Weighted Toronto City 464 462 Rest of GTA 539 541

EDUCATION Unweighted Weighted Primary/secondary school 197 291 College 263 386 University 539 321

The sample thus collected has a minimum weighting factor of 0.395 and a maximum weighting factor of 2.793. The weighted variance is 0.272.

19 SURVEY

[ASK ALL] [SINGLE MENTION] QT0. In which of the following cities do you live? Label Value Attribute Termination Ajax 1 Aurora 2 Bradford West Gwillimbury 3 4 Caledon 5 Chippewas of Georgina Island First Nation 6 East Gwillimbury 7 Georgina 8 Halton Hills 9 King 10 Markham 11 Milton 12 Mississauga 13 Mono 14 New Tecumseth 15 Newmarket 16 Oakville 17 Orangeville 18 Pickering 19 Richmond Hill 20 Toronto 21 Uxbridge 22 Vaughan 23 Whitchurch-Stouffville 24 Other city 99 20 SURVEY [ASK ALL] [SINGLE MENTION] SEXE. Please indicate your sex: Note: As indicated by Statistics Canada, transgender, transsexual, and intersex Canadians should indicate the sex (male or female) with which they most associate themselves. Label Value Attribute Termination Male 1 Female 2

[ASK ALL] [SINGLE MENTION] AGE. How old are you?

Label Value Attribute Termination Under 18 0 TERMINATE Between 18 and 24 1 Between 25 and 34 2 Between 35 and 44 3 Between 45 and 54 4 Between 55 and 64 5 Between 65 and 74 6 75 or older 7 I prefer not to answer 99 TERMINATE

21 SURVEY

[ASK ALL] [SINGLE MENTION] [LIST ORDER: In order] ELI1. Are you at least 18 years old and eligible to vote in Canada? Label Value Attribute Termination Yes 1 No 2 TERMINATE

[ASK ALL] [SINGLE MENTION] [LIST ORDER: Rotation 1-5] Q1A. If FEDERAL elections were held today, for which political party would you be most likely to vote? Would it be for...?

Label Value Attribute Termination ... Justin Trudeau's Liberal Party of Canada 1 ... Jagmeet Singh's New Democratic Party of Canada 2 ... Andrew Scheer's Conservative Party of Canada 3 ... Elizabeth May's Green Party of Canada 4 … Maxime Bernier’s People's Party of Canada 5 …another party 6 F I would not vote 7 F I would cancel my vote 8 F I don’t know 98 F I prefer not to answer 99 F

22 SURVEY [ASK ALL] [SINGLE MENTION] [LIST ORDER: Rotation 1-6] Q1B. Even if you have not yet made up your mind, for which of the following political parties would you be most likely to vote? Would it be for…? Label Value Attribute Termination ... Justin Trudeau's Liberal Party of Canada 1 ... Jagmeet Singh's New Democratic Party of Canada 2 ... Andrew Scheer's Conservative Party of Canada 3 ... Elizabeth May's Green Party of Canada 4 … Maxime Bernier’s People's Party of Canada 5 …another party 6 F I would not vote 7 F I would cancel my vote 8 F I don’t know 98 F I prefer not to answer 99 F

[Q1A=1-5 or Q1B=1-5] [SINGLE MENTION] [LIST ORDER: In order] Q2. Is your choice final or could you change your mind? Label Value Attribute Termination My choice is final 1 I might change my mind 2 I don’t know / I prefer not to answer 9 F

23 SURVEY

[Q1A=1-5 or Q1B=1-5] [SINGLE MENTION] [LIST ORDER : Random 1-5] Q3. Whether your choice is final or not, what would be your second choice among the following political parties? Label Value Attribute Termination ... Justin Trudeau's Liberal Party of Canada 1 ... Jagmeet Singh's New Democratic Party of Canada 2 ... Andrew Scheer's Conservative Party of Canada 3 ... Elizabeth May's Green Party of Canada 4 … Maxime Bernier’s People's Party of Canada 5 …another party 6 F I don’t know / I prefer not to answer 99 F

[ASK ALL] [SINGLE MENTION] [LIST ORDER : Random 1-5] Q4. In your opinion, which federal party leader would make the best Prime Minister of Canada?

Label Value Attribute Termination Justin Trudeau 1 Jagmeet Singh 2 Andrew Scheer 3 Elizabeth May 4 Maxime Bernier 5 Other 6 None 7 I don’t know 98 F Prefer not to answer 99 F

24 SURVEY [ASK ALL] [SINGLE MENTION] [LIST ORDER : In order] Q5A. If elected Prime Minister, do you think Andrew Scheer will have the same leadership style as Doug Ford? Label Value Attribute Termination Yes 1 No 2 I don't know / I prefer not to answer 98 F

[ASK ALL] [SINGLE MENTION] [LIST ORDER : In order] Q5BA. If they form the next federal government, do you want the Conservatives to reopen the debate on abortion in Canada? Label Value Attribute Termination Yes 1 No 2 I don't know / I prefer not to answer 98 F

[ASK ALL] [SINGLE MENTION] [LIST ORDER : Random 1-2] Q6. And, which of the following two perspectives worries you the most? Label Value Attribute Termination Four more years of Trudeau’s Liberals 1 The Conservatives coming back to power in Ottawa 2 I don't know 98 I prefer not to answer 99 F

25 SURVEY [ASK ALL] [SINGLE MENTION] [LIST ORDER : In order] Q7A. For each of the following leaders, please indicate if his or her performance during the debates ... Label Value Attribute Termination ... Justin Trudeau's Liberal Party of Canada 1 ... Jagmeet Singh's New Democratic Party of Canada 2 ... Andrew Scheer's Conservative Party of Canada 3 ... Elizabeth May's Green Party of Canada 4 … Maxime Bernier’s People's Party of Canada 5

[ASK ALL] [SINGLE MENTION] SCOLA. What is the highest level of education that you have completed (diploma obtained)? Label Value Attribute Termination Elementary 1 High school: general or vocational training 2 College: general pre-university programs or technical programs 3 University 4 I prefer not to answer 9

26 SURVEY

[ASK ALL] [SINGLE MENTION] LANGU. What is the language you first learned at home in your childhood and that you still understand? Label Value Attribute Termination French 1 English 2 Other 3 English and French 7 French and other 4 English and other 5 Other and other 6 I prefer not to answer 9

[ASK ALL] [SINGLE MENTION] ENFA. Are there any children under 18 years old living in your household? Label Value Attribute Termination Yes 1 No 2 I prefer not to answer 9

27 CROSSED TABLES

FED - Federal voting intentions with leaners No:1 GENDER AGE (1) AGE (2) CIBLE FEDERAL VOTING INTENTIONS Toronto Rest of B1 Total Male Female 18-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+ 18-34 35-54 55+ LPC NDP CPC GPC PPC Other city GTA FED Total pondéré : 1003 479 524 119 180 175 192 156 182 299 366 338 462 541 341 166 269 63 25 5 n= 1003 503 500 111 169 187 229 149 158 280 416 307 464 539 345 155 280 56 27 6 LPC 34% 35% 33% 34% 26% 35% 36% 36% 37% 29% 36% 37% 38% 30% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% NDP 17% 13% 20% 32% 27% 17% 13% 7% 7% 29% 15% 7% 21% 13% 0% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% CPC 27% 30% 24% 15% 21% 23% 32% 33% 32% 19% 28% 33% 22% 31% 0% 0% 100% 0% 0% 0% GPC 6% 6% 6% 6% 10% 4% 3% 7% 9% 8% 3% 8% 7% 5% 0% 0% 0% 100% 0% 0% PPC 3% 4% 1% 2% 3% 1% 4% 4% 1% 3% 2% 3% 2% 3% 0% 0% 0% 0% 100% 0% Other 0% 1% 0% 1% 1% 0% 1% 0% 0% 1% 1% 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 100% I would not vote 3% 3% 4% 2% 3% 6% 3% 3% 4% 3% 4% 3% 3% 4% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% I would cancel my vote 1% 0% 1% 0% 1% 0% 2% 0% 0% 1% 1% 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% I don't know 5% 5% 5% 3% 5% 8% 4% 7% 2% 4% 6% 4% 3% 6% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% I prefer not to answer 4% 3% 5% 5% 4% 5% 2% 3% 7% 4% 3% 5% 1% 7% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%

FEDX - Federal voting intentions among decided No:2 GENDER AGE (1) AGE (2) CIBLE FEDERAL VOTING INTENTIONS Toronto Rest of B1 Total Male Female 18-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+ 18-34 35-54 55+ LPC NDP CPC GPC PPC Other city GTA FEDX Total pondéré : 869 427 442 107 157 140 171 136 158 264 311 294 424 445 341 166 269 63 25 5 n= 869 450 419 98 146 155 202 130 138 244 357 268 426 443 345 155 280 56 27 6 LPC 39% 40% 39% 38% 29% 44% 41% 42% 42% 33% 42% 42% 42% 37% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% NDP 19% 15% 23% 36% 31% 21% 15% 8% 9% 33% 18% 8% 23% 15% 0% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% CPC 31% 33% 29% 17% 24% 29% 36% 38% 37% 21% 33% 37% 24% 37% 0% 0% 100% 0% 0% 0% GPC 7% 7% 7% 6% 11% 5% 3% 8% 10% 9% 4% 9% 8% 6% 0% 0% 0% 100% 0% 0% PPC 3% 4% 2% 2% 4% 1% 4% 4% 2% 3% 3% 3% 2% 4% 0% 0% 0% 0% 100% 0% Other 1% 1% 0% 1% 1% 0% 1% 0% 0% 1% 1% 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 100%

Is this your final choice or are you likely to change your mind? No:3 GENDER AGE (1) AGE (2) CIBLE FEDERAL VOTING INTENTIONS Toronto Rest of B1 Total Male Female 18-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+ 18-34 35-54 55+ LPC NDP CPC GPC PPC Other city GTA CP2 Total pondéré : 864 423 441 106 156 140 169 136 158 262 309 293 422 442 341 166 269 63 25 0 n= 863 446 417 97 144 155 200 130 137 241 355 267 423 440 345 155 280 56 27 0 It’s my final choice 75% 75% 75% 66% 67% 75% 77% 80% 84% 66% 76% 82% 79% 72% 78% 61% 83% 69% 52% 0% I’m likely to change my mind 14% 15% 13% 18% 25% 13% 12% 9% 9% 22% 12% 9% 12% 16% 11% 24% 9% 18% 41% 0% I don't know / I prefer not to 11% 9% 12% 16% 8% 12% 11% 12% 7% 11% 12% 9% 9% 12% 10% 16% 8% 13% 8% 0% answer

28 CROSSED TABLES

Whether your choice is final or not, what would be your second choice among the following political parties? Would it be...? No:4 GENDER AGE (1) AGE (2) CIBLE FEDERAL VOTING INTENTIONS Toronto Rest of B1 Total Male Female 18-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+ 18-34 35-54 55+ LPC NDP CPC GPC PPC Other city GTA CP3 Total pondéré : 860 418 441 106 152 140 168 136 158 258 308 293 422 437 336 166 269 63 25 0 n= 860 443 417 97 142 155 199 130 137 239 354 267 423 437 342 155 280 56 27 0 ...Justin Trudeau's Liberal 17% 14% 19% 25% 23% 16% 15% 14% 9% 24% 16% 11% 15% 18% 0% 45% 19% 19% 22% 0% Party of Canada ...Jagmeet Singh's New 26% 26% 26% 26% 26% 32% 28% 29% 19% 26% 29% 23% 25% 27% 44% 0% 17% 49% 5% 0% Democratic Party of Canada ...Andrew Scheer's 9% 12% 6% 10% 13% 7% 8% 8% 7% 12% 8% 8% 8% 10% 11% 10% 0% 16% 54% 0% Conservative Party of Canada ...Elizabeth May's Green Party 15% 14% 15% 19% 11% 17% 17% 10% 17% 14% 17% 14% 15% 15% 15% 23% 13% 0% 12% 0% of Canada ...Maxime Bernier's People's 7% 9% 4% 7% 10% 4% 6% 6% 6% 9% 5% 6% 7% 6% 3% 6% 13% 1% 0% 0% Party of Canada None of them 19% 17% 22% 2% 10% 19% 15% 28% 37% 7% 17% 33% 21% 17% 18% 10% 30% 11% 7% 0% I don't know / I prefer not to 8% 7% 8% 11% 7% 5% 12% 6% 6% 9% 9% 6% 8% 7% 9% 6% 9% 5% 0% 0% answer

In your opinion, which federal party leader would make the best Prime Minister of Canada? No:5 GENDER AGE (1) AGE (2) CIBLE FEDERAL VOTING INTENTIONS Toronto Rest of B1 Total Male Female 18-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+ 18-34 35-54 55+ LPC NDP CPC GPC PPC Other city GTA CP4 Total pondéré : 1003 479 524 119 180 175 192 156 182 299 366 338 462 541 341 166 269 63 25 5 n= 1003 503 500 111 169 187 229 149 158 280 416 307 464 539 345 155 280 56 27 6 Justin Trudeau 33% 35% 31% 33% 25% 34% 34% 33% 40% 28% 34% 36% 35% 31% 76% 11% 11% 23% 7% 0% Jagmeet Singh 17% 14% 20% 33% 26% 14% 16% 10% 8% 29% 15% 9% 20% 15% 8% 69% 4% 14% 14% 30% Andrew Scheer 20% 22% 17% 8% 16% 20% 26% 20% 24% 12% 23% 23% 19% 21% 1% 3% 64% 0% 19% 28% Elizabeth May 5% 5% 5% 6% 7% 4% 3% 5% 8% 7% 3% 6% 6% 5% 2% 6% 3% 39% 9% 0% Maxime Bernier 3% 5% 1% 3% 3% 0% 3% 6% 2% 3% 2% 4% 3% 3% 3% 1% 2% 2% 43% 0% Other 1% 1% 0% 0% 2% 0% 0% 2% 0% 1% 0% 1% 0% 1% 0% 0% 1% 1% 0% 21% None 8% 6% 10% 4% 7% 10% 8% 8% 8% 6% 9% 8% 7% 8% 3% 3% 7% 11% 6% 10% I don't know 10% 9% 12% 9% 11% 15% 8% 13% 5% 10% 11% 9% 8% 12% 6% 6% 8% 11% 3% 10% I prefer not to answer 3% 3% 3% 3% 2% 2% 3% 3% 5% 3% 3% 4% 2% 4% 1% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0%

If elected Prime Minister, do you think Andrew Scheer will have the same leadership style as Doug Ford? No:6 GENDER AGE (1) AGE (2) CIBLE FEDERAL VOTING INTENTIONS Toronto Rest of B1 Total Male Female 18-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+ 18-34 35-54 55+ LPC NDP CPC GPC PPC Other city GTA CP5A Total pondéré : 1003 479 524 119 180 175 192 156 182 299 366 338 462 541 341 166 269 63 25 5 n= 1003 503 500 111 169 187 229 149 158 280 416 307 464 539 345 155 280 56 27 6 Yes 47% 45% 49% 53% 49% 45% 51% 48% 40% 50% 48% 44% 54% 41% 66% 57% 22% 58% 42% 41% No 34% 40% 28% 31% 31% 32% 32% 32% 44% 31% 32% 39% 32% 35% 18% 23% 66% 27% 51% 38% I don't know / I prefer not to 19% 15% 23% 17% 20% 23% 18% 20% 16% 19% 20% 18% 14% 24% 16% 20% 11% 14% 7% 21% answer

29 CROSSED TABLES

If they form the next federal government, do you want the Conservatives to reopen the debate on abortion in Canada? No:7 GENDER AGE (1) AGE (2) CIBLE FEDERAL VOTING INTENTIONS Toronto Rest of B1 Total Male Female 18-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+ 18-34 35-54 55+ LPC NDP CPC GPC PPC Other city GTA CP5B Total pondéré : 1003 479 524 119 180 175 192 156 182 299 366 338 462 541 341 166 269 63 25 5 n= 1003 503 500 111 169 187 229 149 158 280 416 307 464 539 345 155 280 56 27 6 Yes 18% 21% 15% 22% 35% 14% 18% 14% 6% 30% 16% 10% 17% 19% 14% 20% 23% 21% 39% 10% No 60% 59% 61% 54% 47% 61% 60% 62% 75% 49% 60% 69% 65% 56% 71% 63% 56% 58% 41% 90% I don't know / I prefer not to 22% 20% 24% 25% 18% 25% 22% 24% 19% 21% 24% 21% 18% 25% 16% 17% 21% 21% 21% 0% answer

And, which of the following two perspectives worries you the most: No:8 GENDER AGE (1) AGE (2) CIBLE FEDERAL VOTING INTENTIONS Toronto Rest of B1 Total Male Female 18-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+ 18-34 35-54 55+ LPC NDP CPC GPC PPC Other city GTA CP6 Total pondéré : 1003 479 524 119 180 175 192 156 182 299 366 338 462 541 341 166 269 63 25 5 n= 1003 503 500 111 169 187 229 149 158 280 416 307 464 539 345 155 280 56 27 6 Four more years of Trudeau’s 33% 37% 29% 20% 23% 32% 40% 41% 38% 22% 36% 39% 33% 33% 7% 22% 75% 28% 65% 38% Liberals The Conservatives coming back to 49% 47% 50% 58% 56% 45% 46% 43% 47% 57% 45% 45% 55% 43% 80% 64% 14% 51% 35% 51% power in Ottawa I don't know 15% 14% 15% 17% 19% 18% 12% 14% 9% 18% 15% 11% 10% 18% 11% 13% 9% 21% 0% 0% I prefer not to answer 4% 2% 5% 5% 2% 5% 3% 2% 6% 3% 4% 4% 2% 5% 2% 1% 2% 0% 0% 10%

Who do you think will win the next election? Is it... No:9 GENDER AGE (1) AGE (2) CIBLE FEDERAL VOTING INTENTIONS Toronto Rest of B1 Total Male Female 18-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+ 18-34 35-54 55+ LPC NDP CPC GPC PPC Other city GTA CP7A Total pondéré : 1003 479 524 119 180 175 192 156 182 299 366 338 462 541 341 166 269 63 25 5 n= 1003 503 500 111 169 187 229 149 158 280 416 307 464 539 345 155 280 56 27 6 ...Justin Trudeau's Liberal Party of 56% 56% 56% 57% 47% 61% 54% 58% 62% 51% 57% 60% 55% 58% 91% 44% 26% 60% 13% 0% Canada ...Jagmeet Singh's New 9% 7% 12% 20% 20% 4% 8% 4% 3% 20% 6% 4% 12% 8% 3% 37% 1% 8% 7% 30% Democratic Party of Canada ...Andrew Scheer's Conservative 30% 32% 29% 14% 27% 30% 37% 34% 34% 22% 34% 34% 31% 30% 4% 17% 73% 15% 42% 49% Party of Canada ...Elizabeth May's Green Party of 2% 2% 2% 4% 2% 2% 1% 3% 1% 3% 1% 2% 1% 2% 1% 2% 1% 9% 0% 10% Canada ...Maxime Bernier's People's Party 2% 3% 1% 4% 5% 3% 1% 1% 0% 5% 2% 1% 1% 3% 1% 0% 0% 8% 39% 11% of Canada

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