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Federal Politics in the Greater Toronto Area

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Federal Politics in the Greater Toronto Area Report FEDERAL POLITICS IN THE GREATER TORONTO AREA October 16th, 2019 DATE NUMÉRO DE PROJET METHODOLOGY METHODOLOGY Web survey using computer-assisted Web interviewing (CAWI) technology. From October 10th to October 14th, 2019 1,003 residents of the Greater Toronto Area (GTA), 18 years of age or older, who have the right to vote in Canada, randomly recruited from LEO’s online panel. Using data from the 2016 Census, results were weighted according to age, gender, region and level of education in order to ensure a representative sample of the population. No margin of error can be associated with a non-probability sample (Web panel in this case). However for comparative purposes, a probability sample of 1,003 respondents would have a margin of error of ±3.09%, 19 times out of 20. The research results presented here are in full compliance with the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements. 2 METHODOLOGY Notes on Reading this Report The numbers presented have been rounded up. However, the numbers before rounding were used to calculate the sums presented and might therefore not correspond to the manual addition of these numbers. In this report, data in bold red characters indicate a significantly lower proportion than that of other respondents. Conversely, data in bold green characters indicate a significantly higher proportion that that of other respondents. A more detailed methodology is presented in the appendix. If you have questions about the data presented in this report, please contact Christian Bourque, Associate and Executive Vice-Present at the following e-mail address: [email protected] 3 FEDERAL VOTING INTENTIONS IN THE GREATER TORONTO AREA Q1A/Q1B. If FEDERAL elections were held today, for which political party would you be most likely to vote? Would it be for...? In the event a respondent had no opinion, the following prompting question was asked: Even if you have not yet made up your mind, for which of the following political parties would you be most likely to vote? Would it be for... Base: All respondents TOTAL TOTAL Toronto Rest of Eligible Decided Male Female 18-34 35-54 55+ City GTA voters voters Weighted n = 1,003 869 427 442 264 311 294 424 445 Unweighted n = 1,003 869 450 419 244 357 268 426 443 ...Justin Trudeau's Liberal Party of 34% 39% 40% 39% 33% 42% 42% 42% 37% Canada ...Andrew Scheer's Conservative 27% 31% 33% 29% 21% 33% 37% 24% 37% Party of Canada ...Jagmeet Singh's New Democratic 17% 19% 15% 23% 33% 18% 8% 23% 15% Party of Canada ...Elizabeth May's Green Party of 6% 7% 7% 7% 9% 4% 9% 8% 6% Canada ...Maxime Bernier's People's Party 3% 3% 4% 2% 3% 3% 3% 2% 4% of Canada …for another party 0% 1% 1% 0% 1% 1% 0% 0% 1% I would not vote 3% - - - - - - - - I would cancel my vote 1% - - - - - - - - I don’t know 5% - - - - - - - - Refusal 4% - - - - - - - - 4 FINAL CHOICE Q2. Is this your final choice or are you likely to change your mind? Based on Based on Based on Based on Based on Base: Respondents who were able people people people people people to say which party they intend to who intend who intend who intend who intend who intend vote for. to vote for to vote for to vote for to vote for to vote for (weighted n = 860, unweighted the LPC the CPC the NDP the GPC the PPC (weighted n = (weighted n = (weighted n = (weighted n = 63 (weighted n = 25 n = 860) 341 269 166 unweighted n = unweighted n = unweighted n = unweighted n = unweighted n = 56) 27*) 345) 280) 155) TOTAL Final choice 75% 78% 83% 61% 69% 52% I'm likely to change my mind 14% 11% 9% 24% 18% 41% I don't know / Refusal 11% 10% 8% 16% 13% 8% *Given the small number of respondents (n<30) data are presented for illustrative purposes only. 5 SECOND CHOICE Q3. Whether your choice is final or not, what would be your second choice among the following political parties? Would it be…? Base: Respondents who were able to say which party they intend to vote for. (weighted n = 860, unweighted n = 860) ...Jagmeet Singh's New Democratic Party of Canada 26% ...Justin Trudeau's Liberal Party of Canada 17% ...Elizabeth May's Green Party of Canada 15% ...Andrew Scheer's Conservative Party of Canada 9% ...Maxime Bernier's People's Party of Canada 7% None of them 19% DNK / Refusal 8% Toronto TOTAL Male Female 18-34 35-54 55+ Rest of GTA City Weighted n = 860 418 441 258 308 293 422 437 Unweighted n = 860 443 417 239 354 267 423 437 ...Jagmeet Singh's New Democratic Party of Canada 26% 26% 26% 26% 29% 23% 25% 27% ...Justin Trudeau's Liberal Party of Canada 17% 14% 19% 24% 16% 11% 15% 18% ...Elizabeth May's Green Party of Canada 15% 14% 15% 14% 17% 14% 15% 15% ...Andrew Scheer's Conservative Party of Canada 9% 12% 6% 12% 8% 8% 8% 10% ...Maxime Bernier's People's Party of Canada 7% 9% 4% 9% 5% 6% 7% 6% None of them 19% 17% 22% 7% 17% 33% 21% 17% Don’t know / Refusal 8% 7% 8% 9% 9% 6% 8% 7% 6 SECOND CHOICE – BY VOTING INTENTIONS Q3. Whether your choice is final or not, what would be your second choice among the following political parties? Would it be…? Base: Respondents who intend to vote for the LPC, the NDP, the CPC, the PPC or the GPC TOTAL LPC CPC NDP GPC PPC Weighted n = 860 336 269 166 63 25 Unweighted n = 860 342 280 155 56 27* ...Jagmeet Singh's New Democratic Party of - 5% Canada 26% 44% 17% 49% ...Justin Trudeau's Liberal Party of Canada 17% - 19% 45% 19% 22% ...Elizabeth May's Green Party of Canada 15% 15% 13% 23% - 12% ...Andrew Scheer's Conservative Party of 11% - 10% 16% 54% Canada 9% ...Maxime Bernier's People's Party of Canada 7% 3% 13% 6% 1% - None of them 19% 18% 30% 10% 11% 7% Don’t know / Refusal 8% 9% 9% 6% 5% 0% *Given the small number of respondents (n<30) data are presented for illustrative purposes only. 7 BEST PRIME MINISTER Q4. In your opinion, which federal party leader would make the best Prime Minister of Canada? Base: All respondents (n=1,003) TOTAL 33% 20% 17% 5% 3% Toronto City 35% 19% 20% 6% 3% Rest of GTA 31% 21% 15% 5% 3% Note: The complement to 100% corresponds to “Other,” None of them,” “I don’t know” and “Refusal” responses. 8 ANDREW SCHEER’S LEADERSHIP STYLE AS PRIME MINISTER Q5A. If elected Prime Minister, do you think Andrew Scheer will have the same leadership style as Doug Ford? Base: All respondents (n=1,003) 19% 47% 34% Yes No DNK / Refusal Toronto TOTAL Male Female 18-34 35-54 55+ Rest of GTA City Weighted n = 1,003 479 524 299 366 338 462 541 Unweighted n = 1,003 503 500 280 416 307 464 539 Yes 47% 45% 49% 50% 48% 44% 54% 41% No 34% 40% 28% 31% 32% 39% 32% 35% Don’t know / Refusal 19% 15% 23% 19% 20% 18% 14% 24% 9 ANDREW SCHEER’S LEADERSHIP STYLE AS PRIME MINISTER – BY VOTING INTENTIONS Q5A. If elected Prime Minister, do you think Andrew Scheer will have the same leadership style as Doug Ford? Base: Respondents who intend to vote for the LPC, the NDP, the CPC, the PPC or the GPC TOTAL LPC CPC NDP GPC PPC Weighted n = 1,003 341 269 166 63 25 Unweighted n = 1,003 345 280 155 56 27* Yes 47% 66% 22% 57% 58% 42% No 34% 18% 66% 23% 27% 51% Don’t know / Refusal 19% 16% 11% 20% 14% 7% *Given the small number of respondents (n<30) data are presented for illustrative purposes only. 10 DESIRE TO REOPEN THE DEBATE ON ABORTION IN CANADA Q5B. If they form the next federal government, do you want the Conservatives to reopen the debate on abortion in Canada? Base: All respondents (n=1,003) 22% 18% 60% Yes No DNK / Refusal Toronto TOTAL Male Female 18-34 35-54 55+ Rest of GTA City Weighted n = 1,003 479 524 299 366 338 462 541 Unweighted n = 1,003 503 500 280 416 307 464 539 Yes 18% 21% 15% 30% 16% 10% 17% 19% No 60% 59% 61% 49% 60% 69% 65% 56% Don’t know / Refusal 22% 20% 24% 21% 24% 21% 18% 25% 11 DESIRE TO REOPEN THE DEBATE ON ABORTION IN CANADA – BY VOTING INTENTIONS Q5B. If they form the next federal government, do you want the Conservatives to reopen the debate on abortion in Canada? Base: Respondents who intend to vote for the LPC, the NDP, the CPC, the PPC or the GPC TOTAL LPC CPC NDP GPC PPC Weighted n = 1,003 341 269 166 63 25 Unweighted n = 1,003 345 280 155 56 27* Yes 18% 14% 23% 20% 21% 39% No 60% 71% 56% 63% 58% 41% Don’t know / Refusal 22% 16% 21% 17% 21% 21% *Given the small number of respondents (n<30) data are presented for illustrative purposes only. 12 PERSPECTIVE THAT MOST WORRIES RESIDENTS OF THE GREATER TORONTO AREA Q6. Which of the following two perspectives worries you the most? Base: All respondents 49% 33% 19% The Conservatives coming back to power Four more years of Trudeau’s Liberals DNK / Refusal in Ottawa Toronto TOTAL Male Female 18-34 35-54 55+ Rest of GTA City Weighted n = 1,003 479 524 299 366 338 462 541 Unweighted n = 1,003 503 500 280 416 307 464 539 The Conservatives coming back to power in 49% 47% 50% 57% 45% 45% 55% 43% Ottawa Four more years of Trudeau’s Liberals 33% 37% 29% 22% 36% 39% 33% 33% I don’t know 15% 14% 15% 18% 15% 11% 10% 18% Refusal 4% 2% 5% 3% 4% 4% 2% 5% 13 PERSPECTIVE THAT MOST WORRIES RESIDENTS OF THE GREATER TORONTO AREA – BY VOTING INTENTIONS Q6.
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