11 January 2017

DAILY SUMMARY – 11 JANUARY 2017 1. Significant advances in neighborhoods of northeastern Mosul and areas approaching 2nd Bridge 2. Demonstration at power station outside Erbil 3. Additional reporting concerning incident involving MPs attempting to enter Erbil 4. Ongoing demonstrations in Khan Bani Saad against Mayor 5. IS assault repelled west of Hit 6. Uptick in IED activity in and around Baghdad 7. Justice and Accountability Committee employee shot and killed in New Baghdad 8. Multiple demonstrations with diverse motivations across Southern Region 9. Two intimidation-style IED attacks in northern and southern Basra North: As previously discussed, meetings began on 11 January in Erbil between KDP and PUK officials to discuss the political and financial problems facing the Kurdish Region. Each side has reportedly prepared proposals, with several possibilities to be discussed, including the KDP remaining in charge of the Presidency, a split of the Presidency between two individuals, or appointment of an independent individual. Additional changes being discussed relate to the management of the Ministry of Natural Resources and increasing transparency. On 10 January Iraqi Ministry of Defense officials announced a new commander has been appointed for the Northern Front Mosul of the Mosul campaign. Further details remain to be clarified regarding this appointment, though Lt. Gen. al-Fereji is to be replaced by Major General Najim al-Jabouri - previously the commander for Nineveh Operations Command. Rumors have previously surrounded this possible replacement, with claims now made public that operations in North East Mosul stalled in part due to some elements refusing to follow Lt. Gen. al-Fereji. Other more serious claims have also been made, related to his leadership and competence in commanding forces. Mosul operations were heavily focused in the northeast of the city, areas between 4th and 2nd Bridges and remaining southeastern neighborhoods. As expected, progress has sped up as militant defenses increasingly collapse, and IS elements are unable to effectively defend against multiple frontlines and widespread groupings for offensive operations. Domiz and Sumer neighborhoods in the southeast of the city are assessed as more significantly controlled, though fighting remains heavy. Additional reports indicated security forces continue to facilitate civilian evacuations in at least some areas of Sumer. As previously discussed, on the evening of 10 January, KIG Member of Parliament Soran Omer, and Gorran Member of Parliament, Ali Hama Salih, were reportedly prevented from transiting through the Erbil Prde checkpoint. Later statements which have been made by the two MPs claimed approximately 20 security personnel threatened bodily harm if they attempted to pass through the checkpoint, though Asayish and other officials in Erbil denied any knowledge of this event or possible involvement of their forces or personnel. In a press conferee on 11 January the MPS stated that the two-hour ordeal at the checkpoint included one MP being punched and weapons drawn on both officials, their wives and children. West of Erbil on 11 January, a demonstration comprised of approximately 60 Kurdish individuals employed with a Turkish company, gathered at an electrical station to demand payment of remaining overdue salary allocations. Initial reporting suggests the likely location for this gathering was the Khabat Thermal Power Plant. Three of the demonstrators and a reporter with NRT News were reportedly detained. Additionally, another local Kurdish company, identified as Babok Company, has reportedly made statements that the same Turkish company still monies now outstanding for over a year. CONFIDENTIAL – FOR INTERNAL USE ONLY Page 2 of 5 Central: On 11 January, security forces repelled an IS assault in Kubaysah, west of Hit. The number of casualties sustained by either side was not initially discussed. This latest attack effort underlines an enduring IS capability to exploit deep infiltration routes through vast desert areas of the province in support of disruptive attacks despite becoming increasingly pressured around Ana. On 11 January, a document surfaced indicating the Anbar Operations Commander was relieved of command and replaced with the commander of the 10th Iraqi Army Division. It is very likely this relief of command was indicative of poor performance surrounding the revitalization of IS attack networks in eastern Anbar and related shortfalls. As many as 10 IED detonations in and around Baghdad killed at least four individuals killed and 19 wounded. In later reporting on the evening of 11 January, a parked vehicle borne IED detonated along a roadside in an area of Bayaa, East Rashid. Initial casualty counts indicate two individuals were killed and seven wounded from what was likely a low-sophistication device. An uptick in shootings was also noted during this period. In the most notable incident on 11 January, the Justice and Accountability Committee announced that an employee was killed by a criminal group while he was exiting his house in al-Baladiyat, New Baghdad. Attacks against similar individuals forms a historically common approach to deter and disrupt prosecution efforts. The Baghdad Operations Command issued a statement in response to criticisms surrounding the forcible removal of protestors from Tahrir Square on 10 January using tear gas and other riot control measures. The Command claimed the sit-in was unlicensed, and reportedly feared for their safety due to terrorism-related threats in the city. In related reporting, Prime Minister Abadi denied the use of live rounds as part of removal efforts. Although the specific threat of attacks against the demonstrators was questionable, it is assessed security planners sought to conclude the event so as not to tie down large numbers of security personnel in the area for a prolonged period. Responses to the 8 January attacks and other recent bombings continue to take shape. The Parliamentary Defense and Security committee will host the Baghdad Operations Commander on 12 January and Prime Minister Abadi on 14 January in order to discuss the security situation. Ministry of Interior officials discussed routine initiatives to enhance the effectiveness of checkpoint operations, including surveillance assets, as part of intelligence driven counter-terrorism approaches. South: On the evening of 10 January, a student accompanied by two masked men assaulted a number of educational staff including the headmaster and two students in a school in Hayy al-Hussain, Basra City. The headmaster was treated at a hospital after being severely beaten, and security forces arrested two of the attackers. The assault reportedly transpired after the director banned the students from entering the school after arriving late. On 11 January, a low-yield IED containing ball bearings detonated against a house belonging to a female teacher in northern Basra. No casualties were sustained, with material damages inflicted. CONFIDENTIAL – FOR INTERNAL USE ONLY Page 3 of 5 These events follow an assault against an educational official in the Hartha area north of Basra City on 3 January due to a dispute involving a student. It is unconfirmed, but possible, the intimidation-style IED attack in northern Basra formed an additional response connected to the 3 January incident. The specification that the device contained ball bearings indicates the perpetrators possibly intended to inflict moderate casualties in this attack. Although disputes affecting educators are not uncommon, the uptick in assaults and escalation to low- yield IED attacks is fairly significant. Significant security responses are anticipated following these events, as well as a heightened potential for demonstrations in central Basra denouncing these actions and calling for increased security. There is also an increased potential for additional related reprisal actions. Multiple demonstrations with diverse motivations were noted across the Southern Region during this period. Individuals in Amarah staged a sit-in outside the Maysan Provincial Council building. This event and a similar demonstration in Hillah was conducted in solidarity with protesters in Baghdad concerning the security situation in the capital. These demonstrations and previous related events were anticipated following the forcible removal of demonstrators from Tahrir Square on 10 January, which followed the 8 January coordinated attacks in the capital. International: Syria's war: Astana peace talks 'set for January 23' – Al Jazeera Russia has reportedly confirmed talks between the Syrian government and the opposition are due to take place in Kazakhstan capital, Ashtana, on January 23. The negotiations, brokered by Russia and Turkey, intend to build on the current ceasefire, which has been in effect since late December. U.S. says Kurds should be included in Syrian peace talks – Ekurd The Syrian Kurds should be party to any Syrian peace talks, the U.S. said Tuesday. “This process has to include all Syrians, and that includes the Syrian Kurds,” State Department spokesman Mark Toner told reporters. Asked explicitly if the Syrian Kurdish Democratic Union Party PYD should be at the table, Toner replied, “At some point they have to be part of this process.” Turkey's allies arming Kurdish militia, no room for it at Syria talks: deputy PM – Reuters Turkey's allies are still providing weapons to the Syrian Kurdish YPG militia, Deputy Prime Minister Veysi Kaynak said on Wednesday, asking "what business

Load more