Economic Hub “Kurdistan Region” During the 2014 Economic Crisis Ahmad Paiman Ramazan

Economic Hub “Kurdistan Region” During the 2014 Economic Crisis Ahmad Paiman Ramazan MEGJELENT: 2015. JÚNIUS – 11. ÉVFOLYAM 1-3. SZÁM Ahmad Paiman Ramazan, PhD student, National University of Public Service, Faculty of Public Administration, Doctoral School, State and Economy Program. Summary Currently, economy in the Kurdistan region is facing a number of challenges, which threatens to undermine the future economy, the level of productivity and the sustainable competitiveness of economic performance. This paper studies the factors of economic shrinking: the instability of the region, political concerns with Baghdad and disagreement with the central government. These challenges are intertwined and overlapping, and Kurdistan’s Regional Government (KRG) has adopted a strategy to come up with appropriate solutions to resolve them within a specified time frame in order to decrease the effect of the crisis on the economic performance of the region. Economy in the Kurdistan Region is intertwined with regional politics. The economy is vulnerable, and some argue about the point where economics triumphs over politics. This study deals with issues such as the recent security threats and instability in Iraq and Syria. The term “political economy” has a genuine implication for Kurdistan regional economy, “as any in other country in which the political and economic sectors are interrelated, the same implication is true for the case of the Kurdistan Region”.1 Indeed, there is no proper balance between politics and the economy in the case of the Kurdistan region, the richest part of Iraq. In spite of repeated alarms, the high tension in Iraq led to the break-out of a new war in 2014; this was the main factor above all that brought adverse impacts on the economy in Iraq and particularly in the Kurdistan region. The related regional crisis revealed the fact that the relationship between economy and politics is closely tied in the KRG. In this regard, the relationship between the economy and politics in the Kurdistan region has been governed, according to the famous theory of Franz Oppenheimer, typically by the two means of obtaining wealth, first and foremost the economic means, which is based on production and exchange. Besides, the political way of obtaining wealth is based on plunder. There are only two options to accumulate wealth: by or without violence.2 Quite understandably, economic policy in Kurdistan involve competition with the federal government, and this is an economic soft policy competition rather than violence, in contrast to Oppenheimer’s conclusion, and the economic policy of the KRG is friendlier to foreign direct investments flowing into the region. This policy resulted in a welcome boom in the economic growth of the region. The IKG property report highlighted that “the 2006 investment law in the KRG has created the architecture for attracting Foreign Direct Investment, by establishing a friendly environment for foreign companies. Thus in 2013 the number of foreign companies reached 2.300 in addition to the 15,000 local companies”.3 Interestingly, the investment law is attractive, and “provides foreign investors in the Kurdistan Region with full ownership of their operations, grants 10 years of tax-free operation, the ability to repatriate all earnings, relaxed local content policies and, for high-priority sectors, free or subsidized land”.4 Economic freedom has important values for economic growth; however, this is not the case in the Kurdistan Region, since the federal government has monopoly over the economic sector. The index of Economic Freedom is based on 10 factors ranked on a numeric scale from zero to 100, an in the 2015 index, Iraq as a country falling within an oil extracting region is not included in the ranking, http://www.heritage. org/index/ranking For this reason, the free market, government spending, trade and other aspects of the Iraqi economy are considered as unstable. Naturally, this has identical implications for the Kurdistan region’s economy. KRG MACROECONOMIC VIEW AND 2014 CRISIS According to the World Bank’s description, “a stable macroeconomic environment enhances prospects for growth and improved living standards, and besides the ultimate goal of macroeconomics is to avoid uncertainty and risk in economic decision making”.5 In general, macroeconomic policies include taxes, government spending and borrowing, exchange rate determinants, and monetary and credit rules. Dealing with the concept of macroeconomics in Iraqi Kurdistan is a complex issue which has direct influence on the economic growth of the region. The efficiency of macroeconomics in Kurdistan led to rapid economic growth since 2003, which resulted in economic stability, reduced poverty, and improved living standards. It is pointed out that the critical concern in the KRG’s macroeconomic measures is complete dependency on oil revenues, and the distribution of wealth, which triggered drawbacks in economic growth rather than a healthy progress for the region. The KRG receives the annual budget from the federal government at the end of every financial year, and the budget for the next year is prepared and approved by the Iraqi Council of Ministries (CoM), although in 2013, the CoM was unable to approve and resolve the budget, since “the Kurdistani ally protested during the reading of the budget law, and thus the CoM could not agree on the federal budget”.6 Thus, due to the lack of an approved economic policy, the federal government was unable to finalize budget for 2014, and the country was left without a fiscal policy. Continued economic development in the Kurdistan Region is stressed in the recent “regional development strategy for 2012–2016”, in which the 2003-2008 national income increased from IQD 4,373 billion to IQD 35,665 billion, an average growth rate of 46.6% at current prices. In the same period, GDP increased from IQD 2,419 billion to IQD 24,725 billion, an average growth rate of 68.9%. The per capita GDP income increased from IQD 0.524 million to IQD 4,754 million, representing an average growth rate of 64.3%.7 The strategic plan for economic development applies a multi-dimensional approach with focus on all factors of economy, as they are interrelated. The same report analysed the economic indicators, which show that based on the available data, in mid-2010, local and foreign investments amounted to about USD 12.491 million, while government investment in the 2004–2009 period increased by 92.1%, with the government investment expenditures making 25% of the overall public spending in the same period.8 Macro- economics in the KRG is highly complex, fragile and burdened with conflicts. In this context, macroeconomics is the driver underlying the conflicts, since the distribution of the wealth of natural resources is contested. The regional government is weak to overcome the current economic threats in the Kurdistan Region, because the budgetary issues of the Kurdistan Region have always been bargained on by the federal government. The situation is controversial, because just like in any other developing economy, in the Kurdistan Region economic policy is weak, “budgets are smaller, personal incomes are lower, and tax collection is often erratic”.9 Government performance is poor, building a strong regional infrastructure, creating an industry-based region and the development of new business for the region remains for the future. The financial crisis hit the Kurdistan Region hard, and the most severe phase of the crisis, which involved in the budget dispute with the federal government of Iraq was dragged for 2 years (2013– 2014). Some are of the opinion that the key point is that “a fiscal hole is a fall in availability of budget revenue to fund spending”.10 The current crisis was caused by an unexpected security- and instability-related tension that emerged from the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS), and economic stability is very worrying, because the KRG’s economic ability is manipulated by the federal government, to a large extent. The federal government failed to distribute the total amount of the aid to the internally displaced persons from Mosul and Sinjar cities after the cities were conquered by ISIS. It can be interpreted similarly to Peter Heller’s “room in a government’s budget that allows it to provide resources for a desired purpose without jeopardizing the sustainability of its financial positions or the stability of the economy”.11 It is also worth noting that proper timing is extremely important in the economic crisis in the Kurdistan Region, due to an interconnected web of reasons. Economic Resources of Kurdistan Region In essence, the KRG economic sector is based on oil revenues which are generated since 2007 by the KRG government independently. “An estimated 45 bn barrels of oil reserves, up to 200TCF of natural gas reserves and relatively unexplored mineral deposits.”12 The Kurdistan region’s energy- related revenues are still untapped, and this makes the Kurdistan region an attractive economic region for the global energy importers. “In 2011, GDP of KRG was over USD 23,6 billion, with a per capita income standing at USD 4.452, and the growth rate being 12% in 2012, predicted to reach 8% in 2013.”13 The economic sector of the Kurdistan Region is completely dependent on oil, and this is directly affected by the international oil companies in the region, which are the source of foreign direct investment. It is estimated that “almost 55% of all investment in Iraq is made in Kurdistan region”14 Despite of that KRG is only able to export almost 400,000 barrels pre-day, which is approximately 16% of the Iraq’s total exports.15 Economic growth depends on oil revenues which is risky for a developing region like Kurdistan due to the security-related and political instability of Iraq and the Middle East.

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