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Virginias 1993 Elections: the 12-%Ear Itch Returns Part 1

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Virginias 1993 Elections: the 12-%Ear Itch Returns Part 1 Virginias 1993 Elections: The 12-%ear Itch Returns Part 1. General Election for Governor .......................... by Larry J. Sabato •••••••••••••••••••••••••• Mr. Sabato is Robert Kent Gooch Professsor of disaffection with the same Charles Robb and Government and Foreign Affairs at the Univer­ his fellow unpopular Democrats, Governor Dou­ sity ofVirginia. This article is excerptedfrom the glas Wilder and President Bill Clinton. That forthcomingVirginia Votes 1991-1994; most of fact, combined with Mary Sue Terry's own un­ the tables andfigures have been omitted. Part 2, The statistics appealing persona and inept campaign (and a in the February 1994 issue, willdiscuss the 1993 clever and resourceful Allen effort) doomed her tell the tale: Virginia GeneralAssembly elections. to a historic defeat. 1993 was the best Republican MCh as the Republicans learned nation­ gubernatorial year NMINATIONS PROCESS ally in 1992, Virginia Democrats discovered to The Democratic convention on May 8-9 was their sorro in 1993 that voters often believe of the 20th century, carefully orchestrated and exquisitely dull. Former 12 years in power is enough for a political party. while Terry attorney general Mary Sue Terry ofPatrick County In what was arguably the best election year for received the was crowned the gubernatorial nominee, and Lieu­ the state GOP in this century, Republican can­ tenant Governor Donald S. Beyer, Jr. ofAlexandria lowest percentage didates swept the governorship and the attorney was renominated for the second slot. Former VIr­ general's post in landslides, and they came very of the vote ginia State Bar president William D. Dolan III of close to gaining control of the House of Del­ of any Democratic Arlington County won the berth for attorney gen­ egates. Mirroring 1981, when the electorate candidate for eral on the ticket. Dolan had never before served ended a dozen years of GOP statehouse con­ in any elective office, but he had been an active trol and installed a young and promising team governor in member and later chair of the state Community of Democrats led by Charles Robb, the "12­ this century. College Board. year itch" returned with a vengeance in 1993. The Republican convention on June 4­ Ironically, the "time for a change" theme 5 was much livelier. The GOP had not won a that propelled George Allen to the governor's single state office since 1977, and its leaders chair took hold in part because of public were admittedly hungry for victory. University ofVirginia NEWS LETTER For the first Former U. S. Representative George F. Allen, Mary Sue Terry's large spring lead of550/0 to time in a : Jr. ofAlbemarle County, long considered the Re­ 280/0 began to melt away in the summer's heat after publican frontrunner, secured 64.1 % ofthe delegate Allen was introduced to a statewide audience at his Virginia contest, : votes for governor, to 29.30/0 for Earle C. Williams June nominating convention. Always lurking in the the private tracking of McLean, a retired corporate CEO who self-fi­ background for Terrywere the three unpopular lead­ nanced a nearly $2 million campaign. Delegate ers ofher party. By July, as Allen began to press the polling conducted Clinton Miller of Shenandoah County, the most "change" theme that would be his constant on the by a statewide moderate candidate in the field, finished third with campaign trail, Terry had already lost her majority 6.6 0/0. 1 support-never to regain it. At that point, she led candidate has been The lieutenant governor's race pitted politi­ Allen by the reduced margin of 47% to 360/0. made available cal novice and home-schooling advocate Michael In late August the Fraternal Order ofPolice (FOP) P. Farris of Loudoun County against Bush White announced its endorsement ofAllen. Considering the for analysis. House aide Bobbie Kilberg of McLean, the lone importance of the crime issue and the FOP's support : woman among the GOP candidates. With Chris­ for Terry in 1985 and 1989, this endorsement gave tian political activists and home-schoolers occupying Allen a major boost. By Labor Day, Teny's lead had : -an estimated third or more of the delegate seats, shrunk to 7 points(470/0 t-o 400/0), and the "invinci­ Farris produced a 60.8% victory. bility" image that had filled Terry's warchest and held The race for the attorney general nomination Allen back was dissipating. was more obscure than the others. Moderate-con­ Other than fundraising, much of Terry's sum­ servative Henrico CountyCommonwealth'sAttorney mer campaign had focused on her proposal for a 5-day • James S. Gilmore III won 60.1 % of the delegate waiting period before the purchase of a handgun. The votes in a battle with moderate Delegate G. Steven proposal had broad public support, but Allen's trump • Agee of Roanoke. The Allen-Farris-Gilmore ticket card-abolishing parole for violent criminals-had more was unquestionably the most conservative state ticket intense backing from the electorate. The Republican fielded by the Republicans in recent times, mainly further linked his anti-parole stance to the dramatic due to Farris's presence. rise in serious crime that occurred while Terry was state attorney general (even though that post is not usually on the front lines of fighting crime). Terry T:e CAMPAIGN countered with television advertisements suggesting For the first time in a Virginia contest, the private Allen was a tool of the National Rifle Association. tracking polling conducted by a statewide candi­ By the beginning ofOctober (before the three date has been made available for analysis. These are televised debates), Allen had already closed the gap the survey data provided to George Allen's cam­ with Terry with the race tied at 41 %. His stretch paign by its pollster, Fabrizio, McLaughlin, & run, infused with cash from "access" contributors Associates. 2 In the final month of October, that who smelled a winner, stressed the themes he had polling gave a near-continuous picture of public been developing since six weeks before the GOP opinion trends (see Figure 1). convention. On the mostly positive side, Allen pledged FIGURE 1 George Allen's Private Campaign Polling, May-October 1993 May July Aug. Sep Oct. Oct. Oct. Oct. Oct. Oct. Oct. Oct. Oct. Oct. Oct. Oct. Oct. Oct. Nov. 2 '93 '93 '93 '93 3-5 3-5- 5- 7- 10- 12- 14- 17- 19- 20- 21- 24- 26-27 27-28 7 7-10 10-12 12-14 14-17 17-19 19-20 20-21 21-24 24-25 25-26 SOURCE& NOTES: Polls taken by Allen's pollster, Fabrizio, McLaughlin & Associates. Sample sizes and margins of error varied. Most October polls consisted of 3-night samplings of 600 likely voters (200/night, with the most dated interviews dropped and newest 200 added.) This is classic 'tracking' surveying. For October 27-28, the sample size increased to 400/night. November 2 poll data were actually produced by a post-election survey of 500 2° self-reported voters, taken November 4-5; the survey was sponsored by the Republican Governors' Association. Center for Public Service • January 1994 to fight crime, restore honesty and integrity to state Sue Terry by 58.3% to 40.9%. Allen became the first government, bring change, and create jobs. He also candidate for governor to receive over a million votes promised a financial settlement to federal retirees (1,045,319), to Terry's 733,527 votes. The statistics who had been battling Terry and the Democratic tell the tale: 1993 was the best Republican gubernato­ administration over the taxation of their pensions. rial year of the century, while Terry received the lowest On the negative side,he relentlessly labelled Terry a percentage of the vote of any Democratic candidate "Robb-Wilder" politician and, with the help ofas­ for governor in the 20th century. sociates, drew a contrast between his (second)wife Allen built his massive victory margin by car­ and children and Terry's single status. rying 9 ofVirginia's 11 congressional districts. His A whisper campaign about Terry broke into largest majority (68.8%) came in the state's most the open on October 7, when a Roanoke psychia­ Republican district, the 7th-stretching from the trist unconnected to the Allen campaign made wild Richmond suburbs to Albemarle County. Also well accusations about Terry's alleged sexual preference. over 600/0 in their support for Allen were the Re­ These accusations were made while the man was publican-leaning Northern Neck 1st (63.3%), before a professional disciplinary board on account Roanoke 6th (63.60/0), and the Northern Virginia­ of his sexual activity with his own patients. Terry Shenandoah 10th (64.50/0), as well as the normally • was forced to deny the groundless ranting; but her Democratic-leaning Southwest 9th (64.3%). In a • campaign reported privately that news accounts of shocker, Allen won every single jurisdiction in the the allegations had sent Terry's poll ratings tum­ 9th, and he became the first GOP candidate for bling. 3 Indeed, even Allen's tracking numbers show governor in the 20th century to carry heavily union­ Allen opening up his first lead at precisely this time. ized Wise County. But Terry's burdens were far greater than this re­ Allen also easily won three other districts: the grettable incident alone. Norfolk-Virginia Beach 2nd (57.4%), the Tidewa­ From this point on, Allen steadily expanded ter 4th (59.9%), and the Southside 5th (59.7%). his lead, with one exception. That was in the days The highly competitive 11 th District in Northern following the second televised debate on October Virginia also tipped to Allen by 51.2% to 48.3%.
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