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Indicator Project South Africa VOLUME FIVE NUMBER FOUR SPRING 1988 sou ELECTION PROJECTIONS Support your lo dqI sher ff MUNICIPAL POLLS Voting trends ir 1970s aid 1980s BLA> )s, LACs, MANCOMs, R Leading authorities on local au horities SANCTIONS REVISITE;i D Dellums and th 3 econcmic doldrums BOP 'TIL YOU DROP Mange pe in Mima bat ho ten years on LABOUR'S LAMENT A post- 1 THE BAROMETER OF SOCIAL TRENDS Abbot Laboratories • AECI Ltd • Africa Inst of SA • African Cables • African Oxygen Ltd • Allied Technologies Ltd • Andrew Levy & Assocs (Pty) Ltd • Anglo American & De Beers Chairman's Fund Education Trust • Anglovaal Ltd • Anikem (Pty) Ltd • Anna Starcke Assocs • Bankorp Ltd • Barlow Rand Ltd • Beacon Sweets & Chocolates • BP Southern Africa (Pty) Ltd • Carlton Paper of SA (Pty) Ltd • Chamber of Mines of SA • Checkers SA Ltd • Crown Cork SA (Pty) Ltd • Consolidated Textiles Ltd • Consumer Behaviour (Pty) Ltd • Control Data Corp • Delta Motor Corp • Development Bank of Southern Africa • Dow Chemical USA • Durban Chamber of Commerce • Durban City Council • Durban City Council - Personnel Services • Edward L Bateman Ltd • ESCOM • Everite Ltd • Federated Life Assurance Co • First National Bank of Southern Africa Ltd • Ford Foundation • General Mining Corp Ltd • German Embassy • Gilbeys Distillers & Vintners (Pty) Ltd • Gillette SA Ltd • PG Glass Holdings (Pty) Ltd • Gold Fields Foundation • Grinaker Holdings Ltd • Henred-Fruehauf Trailers (Pty) Ltd • Hewlett Packard SA (Pty) Ltd • ISM SA (Pty) Ltd • Johannesburg Consolidated Investment Co Ltd • Johnson & Johnson • Kangra Holdings (Pty) Ltd • Kellogg Co of SA (Pty) Ltd • Kluk Textile Industries • KwaZulu Finance & Investment Corp • Liberty Life • Malbak Ltd • Mercedes-Benz of SA (Pty) Ltd • Metal Box SA Ltd • Metropolitan Life Ltd • Mitchell Cotts (Pty) Ltd • Mobil Oil Corp • Mobil Oil Foundation of SA • The Natal Witness (Pty) Ltd • NCR Corporation of SA Ltd • Netherlands Embassy • Old Mutual • Otis Elevator Co Ltd • Perm Centenary Trust • Premier Group • Rand Merchant Bank • Richards Bay Minerals • Rio Tinto Management Services SA (Pty) Ltd • Robertsons (Pty) Ltd • Romatex Ltd • SA Clothing Industries Ltd • Saficon Investments Ltd • SA Foundation • Sage Holdings Ltd • Sanlam • SAPPI • SASOL Ltd • SA Sugar Ass • SA Tioxide (Pty) Ltd • SEIFSA • Shell SA (Pty) Ltd • Smith Kline & French Laboratories • South African Breweries Ltd • Southern Life • Standard Bank Investment Corp Ltd • Stellenbosch Farmers Winery Ltd • Suncrush Limited • Sun International Ltd • TEK Corporation • The Tongaat-Hulett Group Ltd • The Urban Foundation • Toyota Marketing Co (Pty) Ltd • Unilever SA (Pty) Ltd • UNISA • USSALEP • Unisys (Pty) Ltd • Volkswagen of SA (Pty) Ltd • PG Wood Industries • WooltruLtd • Zenex Oil (Pty) Ltd y NDICATOR SOUTH AFRICA is published four times a year by the Centre for Social and Development QStudies at the University of Natal, Durban. Opinions expressed are not necessarily those of the Editorial Committee and should not be taken to represent the policies of companies or organisations sponsoring or advertising in the publication. All material herein is copyright © INDICATOR SOUTH AFRICA or individual authors, except in the case of short extracts for review or comment. Permission to republish or reproduce any part of this publication must be obtained from the publisher. Editor/Research Co-ordinator Graham Howe Liaison/IR Research Myrna Berkowitz Labour Research Mark Bennett Urban/Political Research Rob Evans Development Research Vijay Makanjee Documentary Research Deborah Quin Secretary Dorothy Smith Editorial Committee Prof Lawrence Schlemmer, Prof Hermann Giliomee, Prof Mike McGrath, Dr Valerie Moller, Indicator SA Project Team. DESIGN & LAYOUT Graphicos • REPRODUCTION Hirt & Carter (Natal) (Pty) Ltd • PRINTING Creda (Natal) (Pty) Ltd ISSN 0259-188x Through our wide range of products we serve farming, shipping and industry. Through our resources we serve education culture and numerous charities. Oh yes, and through our pumps we serve petrol. Mobil, serving the needs of the nation. Mobil With us you ore Number One. DM&MC2353 SPRING. 1 POLITICAL MONITOR MUNICIPAL ELECTION FOCUS Part One October 1988: Dress rehearsal without script Lawrence Schlemmer Shaping a Post-Apartheid City Doreen Atkinson Showdown on Platteland & Rand Richard Humphries Party Politics go to local Polls Robert Cameron LACs: Gravy or grassroots train? Martin Challenor ECONOMIC MONITOR Sanctions: Change by force of alms Carolyn Jenkins Can sanctions work selectively? Stephen Gelb Economic Outlook Merle Holden & Mike McCrath Indaba Debate: A rejoinder on redistribution Tony Ardington RURAL & REGIONAL MONITOR Bophuthatswana: Bordering on no-man's land Vijay Makanjee States of Independence: Comparative data on TBVC homelands IPSA Research The Last Metropolis: RSC stalemate, Indaba checkmate? Jeff McCarthy URBAN MONITOR MUNICIPAL ELECTION FOCUS Part Two BLAs: Bread-and-Blood politics Rob Evans Fifty years of African local government IPSA Chronology African city, town & village elections IPSA Data Sofasonke: Home for the homeless Khehla Shubane The Frontier Legacy Cecil Manona Legitimacy Crisis for Mancoms Cheryl Hendricks INDUSTRIAL MONITOR Beyond Recognition: A new social contract Clive Thompson The Labour Relations Amendment Act IPSA Research Towards Bilateral Self-Governance Loet Douwes Dekker Reviving the Stayaway Strike, 1984-1988 IPSA Data Making Amends for the LRA Charles Nupen Were as important to the man in the street as we are to the men In Diagona© l Street. Being one of the top performers on the stock exchange means a better standard of living for our shareholders. But being involved in the country's economic development means the creation of more wealth and an improved standard of living for every South African. It's an involvement that has seen us establish coal mines, stainless steel works, cement, glass and other factories to effectively utilise the country's vast resources, to generate more exports, create more jobs, and contribute significantly to the nation's growth. Involvement means responsibility — in education and training, in helping to establish more businesses, and playing a meaningful role in the community — ensuring not only the country's future, but yours too. .uttxib' asowja he Indicator Project South Africa Financially, the Project relies on donor subscrip- (IPSA) is an applied research and publi- tions from companies and foundations in South tion unit which now falls under the Africa and abroad, who consider it part of their auspices of the Centre for Social and social responsibility programme to support the Development Studies (CSDS) at the University independent investigation and analysis of issues of Natal. The newly renamed centre is the result in all areas of South African society. A broad of a merger between the Centre for Applied spectrum of individuals and institutes in the Social Sciences (which formerly encompassed public and private sectors also subscribe to the Indicator SA) and the Development Studies Unit. Indicator SA journal and information service. In- The new association of units should further terested subscribers should contact the liaison expand research interests and expertise within the officer directly at the IPSA offices. university community, enriching the scope of our Indicator SA draws on university-based research publication. findings and commissions reports from promi- Indicator Si4 was established in 1982 in response nent academics and practitioners in the field, to the evident need to develop statistical indica- besides maintaining a project research team tors and monitor key developments in South which monitors issues, undertakes special studies African society during a critical phase of flux and makes regular contributions. The main and change. The Project aims to contribute to thrust of the IPSA information service is to pro- informed debate among key decision makers vide objective, practical, policy-directed research. through providing a data analysis, trend diag- We strive to quantify published commentary and nosis and policy prognosis service. To promote findings, through providing hard data, survey these objectives, IPSA publishes a quarterly results and comparative research. Simultaneously, journal divided into five 'monitors' - namely IPSA initiates debate on controversial issues by political, economic, rural and regional, inviting a wide range of partisan perspectives, urban, and industrial - as well as producing including government, labour, community, occasional focuses on the major issues of corporate executives, and spokespeople represent- the day. ing other key participants in the change process. 'Indicator SA has achieved an enviable reputation for skilled, in-depth research... its impar- tiality and accuracy are acknowledged. Indicator occupies a unique position in the informa- tion supply in our rapidly-changing society.' The Natal Mercury, July 1988 'Indicator South Africa, an authoritative academic journal that attempts to come to terms with the facts behind what are otherwise emotive political issues.' Business Day, January 1987 'The Project has again confirmed its ability to tackle major problems of the country, pre- senting the full scope of opinion.' The Daily News, October 1981 The government cannot argue with facts and Indicator SA has a habit of producing disturb- ing statistics.' The Natal Mercury, May 1981 'Indicator SA, that most valuable barometer of social trends.' Sunday Times, September 1986 'That absolutely indispensable publication... We
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