Improving C2 and Situational Awareness for Operations in and Through the Information Environment
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Robin Hanson Statement on Teaching
Robin Hanson Statement on Teaching Long ago I was one of the top teaching assistants at the University of Chicago physics department. I had to learn to translate this ability into teaching economics here. For example, I learned that students are far more willing to believe physicists about physics, than to believe economists about economics. To help overcome this skepticism, I run some classroom experiments in my microeconomics courses. These experiments give students a good initial hook for the concepts of marginal value and cost, and they show that standard theory predicts experimental outcomes reasonably well. One physics practice that translates well to economics is “back of the envelope” analysis. For example, I ask why poets are paid less than romance novelists, and teachers are paid less than garbage men (hint: note supply side effects). And I ask whether a subsidy or tax would best correct for law mower externalities (hint: neighbors can negotiate easily). While many undergraduates prefer teachers to give them the one true answer on policy questions, I try to avoid taking sides. In class discussions, I ask students to take and defend policy positions, and then I defend any undefended major positions, and mention any unmentioned major criticisms of these positions. The important thing is for students to understand the sorts of arguments that an economist would respect. I am big on normative analysis. I review how normative economics differs from normative analysis elsewhere, and the basic types of market failure. I cover counter- arguments that most teachers don’t cover, such as consistency checks (e.g., if this were the failure then we should also see that) and minimal interventions (e.g., this milder alternative should work just as well). -
Fm 6-02 Signal Support to Operations
FM 6-02 SIGNAL SUPPORT TO OPERATIONS SEPTEMBER 2019 DISTRIBUTION RESTRICTION: Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited. This publication supersedes FM 6-02, dated 22 January 2014. HEADQUARTERS, DEPARTMENT OF THE ARMY This publication is available at the Army Publishing Directorate site (https://armypubs.army.mil/) and the Central Army Registry site (https://atiam.train.army.mil/catalog/dashboard). *FM 6-02 Field Manual Headquarters No. 6-02 Department of the Army Washington, D.C., 13 September 2019 Signal Support to Operations Contents Page PREFACE..................................................................................................................... v INTRODUCTION ........................................................................................................ vii Chapter 1 OVERVIEW OF SIGNAL SUPPORT ........................................................................ 1-1 Section I – The Operational Environment ............................................................. 1-1 Challenges for Army Signal Support ......................................................................... 1-1 Operational Environment Overview ........................................................................... 1-1 Information Environment ........................................................................................... 1-2 Trends ........................................................................................................................ 1-3 Threat Effects on Signal Support ............................................................................. -
FROM LONGITUDE to ALTITUDE: INDUCEMENT PRIZE CONTESTS AS INSTRUMENTS of PUBLIC POLICY in SCIENCE and TECHNOLOGY Clayton Stallbau
FROM LONGITUDE TO ALTITUDE: INDUCEMENT PRIZE CONTESTS AS INSTRUMENTS OF PUBLIC POLICY IN SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY Clayton Stallbaumer* I. INTRODUCTION On a foggy October night in 1707, a fleet of Royal Navy warships ran aground on the Isles of Scilly, some twenty miles southwest of England.1 Believing themselves to be safely west of any navigational hazards, two thousand sailors discovered too late that they had fatally misjudged their position.2 Although the search for an accurate method to determine longitude had bedeviled Europe for several centuries, the “sudden loss of so many lives, so many ships, and so much honor all at once” elevated the discovery of a solution to a top national priority in England.3 In 1714, Parliament issued the Longitude Act,4 promising as much as £20,0005 for a “Practicable and Useful” method of determining longitude at sea; fifty-nine years later, clockmaker John Harrison claimed the prize.6 Nearly three centuries after the fleet’s tragic demise, another accident, also fatal but far removed from longitude’s terrestrial reach, struck a nation deeply. Just four days after its crew observed a moment’s silence in memory of the Challenger astronauts, the space shuttle Columbia disintegrated upon reentry, killing all on board.7 Although * J.D., University of Illinois College of Law, 2006; M.B.A., University of Illinois College of Business, 2006; B.A., Economics, B.A., History, Lake Forest College, 2001. 1. DAVA SOBEL, LONGITUDE: THE TRUE STORY OF A LONE GENIUS WHO SOLVED THE GREATEST SCIENTIFIC PROBLEM OF HIS TIME 12 (1995). -
ATP 3-57.70. Civil-Military Operations Center
ATP 3-57.70 Civil-Military Operations Center May 2014 DISTRIBUTION RESTRICTION: Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited. FOREIGN DISCLOSURE RESTRICTION (FD 1): The material contained in this publication has been reviewed by the developers in coordination with the United States Army John F. Kennedy Special Warfare Center and School foreign disclosure authority. This product is releasable to students from all requesting foreign countries without restrictions. Headquarters, Department of the Army This publication is available at Army Knowledge Online (https://armypubs.us.army.mil/doctrine/index.html). To receive publishing updates, please subscribe at http://www.apd.army.mil/AdminPubs/new_subscribe.asp. Army Techniques Publication Headquarters, No. 3-57.70 Department of the Army Washington, DC 5 May 2014 Civil-Military Operations Center Contents Page PREFACE..............................................................................................................iv INTRODUCTION ....................................................................................................v Chapter 1 OPERATIONS .................................................................................................... 1-1 General ............................................................................................................... 1-1 Unified Land Operations ..................................................................................... 1-2 Decisive Action .................................................................................................. -
The Transhumanist Reader Is an Important, Provocative Compendium Critically Exploring the History, Philosophy, and Ethics of Transhumanism
TH “We are in the process of upgrading the human species, so we might as well do it E Classical and Contemporary with deliberation and foresight. A good first step is this book, which collects the smartest thinking available concerning the inevitable conflicts, challenges and opportunities arising as we re-invent ourselves. It’s a core text for anyone making TRA Essays on the Science, the future.” —Kevin Kelly, Senior Maverick for Wired Technology, and Philosophy “Transhumanism has moved from a fringe concern to a mainstream academic movement with real intellectual credibility. This is a great taster of some of the best N of the Human Future emerging work. In the last 10 years, transhumanism has spread not as a religion but as a creative rational endeavor.” SHU —Julian Savulescu, Uehiro Chair in Practical Ethics, University of Oxford “The Transhumanist Reader is an important, provocative compendium critically exploring the history, philosophy, and ethics of transhumanism. The contributors anticipate crucial biopolitical, ecological and planetary implications of a radically technologically enhanced population.” M —Edward Keller, Director, Center for Transformative Media, Parsons The New School for Design A “This important book contains essays by many of the top thinkers in the field of transhumanism. It’s a must-read for anyone interested in the future of humankind.” N —Sonia Arrison, Best-selling author of 100 Plus: How The Coming Age of Longevity Will Change Everything IS The rapid pace of emerging technologies is playing an increasingly important role in T overcoming fundamental human limitations. The Transhumanist Reader presents the first authoritative and comprehensive survey of the origins and current state of transhumanist Re thinking regarding technology’s impact on the future of humanity. -
Are Disagreements Honest?
Are Disagreements Honest? Tyler Cowen Robin Hanson* Department of Economics George Mason University August 18, 2004 (First version April 16, 2001.) *The authors wish to thank Curt Adams, Nick Bostrom, Geoff Brennan, James Buchanan, Bryan Caplan, Wei Dai, Hal Finney, Mark Grady, Patricia Greenspan, Kevin Grier, Robin Grier, Hans Haller, Claire Hill, Mary Hirschfeld, Dan Houser, Stephen Hsu, Michael Huemer, Maureen Kelley, Arnold Kling, Peter McCluskey, Tom Morrow, William Nelson, Mark Notturno, David Schmidtz, Susan Snyder, Aris Spanos, Damien Sullivan, Daniel Sutter, Alexander Tabarrok, William Talbott, Nicolaus Tideman, Eleizer Yudkowsky, and participants of the Virginia Tech economics department seminar for useful comments and discussion. We thank the Center for Study of Public Choice and the Mercatus Center for financial support. * Correspondence to Robin Hanson, [email protected], MSN 1D3, Carow Hall, Fairfax VA 22030-4444, 703-993-2326 FAX: 703-993-2323 Are Disagreements Honest? ABSTRACT We review literatures on agreeing to disagree and on the rationality of differing priors, in order to evaluate the honesty of typical disagreements. A robust result is that honest truth-seeking agents with common priors should not knowingly disagree. Typical disagreement seems explainable by a combination of random belief influences and by priors that tell each person that he reasons better than others. When criticizing others, however, people seem to uphold rationality standards that disapprove of such self- favoring priors. This suggests that typical disagreements are dishonest. We conclude by briefly considering how one might try to become more honest when disagreeing. KEYWORDS: agreeing, disagree, common, prior, truth-seeking, Bayesian 2 I. Introduction People disagree all of the time, especially about politics, morality, religion, and relative abilities. -
Una Historia Del Pensamiento Transhumanista 1 a History of a Transhumanist Thought
UNA HISTORIA DEL PENSAMIENTO TRANSHUMANISTA 1 A HISTORY OF A TRANSHUMANIST THOUGHT NICK BOSTROM Universidad de Oxford [email protected] RECIBIDO: 24/05/2011 ACEPTADO: 04/07/2011 Resumen: Este artículo repasa algunos de los antecedentes e hitos del pensamiento transhumanista. Lo hace recordando narrativas y pensadores –principalmente occidentales- que han exhibido ideas o deseos convergentes con, anticipadores, o inspiradores de los del transhumanismo, tales como la milenaria empresa de mejorar la condición humana a través del desarrollo tecnológico. También se lleva a cabo una recapitulación de asuntos y debates surgidos en torno al transhumanismo desde finales del siglo pasado hasta 2005. Esta recapitulación concluye con una llamada al entendimiento entre bandos enfrentados –especialmente, transhumanistas y bioconservadores. Asimismo, se incluye una presentación de la gestación e ideas básicas de la World Transhumanist Association (Asociación Transhumanista Mundial), cuya declaración fundacional (en su versión de 2009) se incluye al final del artículo. Palabras clave: transhumanismo, posthumano, humanismo, posthumanismo, perfeccionamiento humano, singularidad. Abstract: This paper traces some of the historic antecedents and landmarks of transhumanist thought. It does so by recalling narratives and thinkers –primarily Western- that have exhibited ideas or desires that are convergent with, anticipations of, or inspirations for those that characterize transhumanism, such as the age-old quest for improving the human condition through technical development. There is also a recapitulation of topics and debates merging or emerging around transhumanism during XXth century and up to 2005. This recapitulation concludes with a call to the quarrelling sides -primarily, transhumanists and bioconservatives- for mutual understanding. It also includes a brief account of the historic gestation and basic ideas of the World Transhumanist Association (WTA), whose foundational declaration (in its 2009 version) is included at the end of the paper. -
Systems Development and Production Issue Area Active Assignments
United States General Accounting Office GAO National Security and International Affairs Julyl1995 Systems Development and Production Issue Area Active Assignments GAO/AA-95-4(3) Foreword This report was prepared primarily to inform Congressional members and key staff of ongoing assignments in the General Accounting Office's Systems Development and Production issue area This report contains assignments that were ongoing as of July 6, 1995, and presents a brief background statement and a list of key questions to be answered on each assignment. The report will be issued quarterly. This report was compiled from information available in GAO'S internal management information systems. Because the information was downloaded from computerized data bases intended for internal use, some information may appear in abbreviated form. If you have questions or would like additional information about assignments listed, please contact Louis Rodrigues, Director; Brad Hathaway, Associate Director; or Thomas Schulz, Associate Director, on (202) 5124841. Page 1 GAO/AA-95-4(3) Contents Page WEAPON SYSTEMS JUSTIFICATION ,MONITORING OPERATIONAL TEST OF B-l1B BOMBER. 1 ,STATUS OF NAVY TACTICAL AIRCRAFT MODERNIZATION EFFORTS. I , EVALUATION OF THE INTEGRATION OF ATCCS INTO THE ARMY BATTLE COMMAND SYSTEM. I , SHALLOW WATER ANTISUBMARINE WARFARE LIGHTWEIGHT TORPEDO. 2 , ACQUISITION OF THE ENHANCED FIBER OPTIC-GUIDED MISSILE (EFOG-M) SYSTEM. 2 , REVIEW OF AV-8B REMANUFACTURE PROGRAM. 2 COMBAT AIR POWER ASSESSMENT--SURVEILLANCE AND RECONNAISSANCE. 3 New , THE NAVY'S EFFORTS TO DEVELOP A COMBAT SYSTEM FOR THE NSSN. 3 New , SURVEY OF B-lB CONVENTIONAL MISSION UPGRADE PROGRAM. 3 WEAPON SYSTEMS ACQUISITION PROCESS , EVALUATION OF THE SERVICES' EFFORTS TO DEVELOP COOPERATIVE IFF SYSTEMS. -
Battle Command on the Move
Battle Command on the Move Authors: Rebecca Morley Chief Joseph Kobsar POC: Rebecca Morley AMSRD-CER-C2-BCS-MD Building 2700 Ft. Monmouth, NJ 07703 Telephone: (732) 532-8927 Fax: (732) 532-8929 [email protected] 1. Abstract Battle Command on the Move (BCOTM) is a revolutionary capability that provides current and future combined arms commanders all of the information resident in their command posts, and the required communications necessary to command and control their combined arms team on the move, or at a short halt, from any vantage point on the joint battlefield. The purpose of the BCOTM effort was to convert five M-7 Bradley Fire Support Team (BFIST) vehicles into BCOTM systems. Three operator workstations and an extensive Mission Equipment Package (MEP) were integrated into the five BFIST platforms to provide a common operational picture and enable Situational Understanding (SU) while on the move. The integration team consisted of three groups who worked together for 2 months to complete the system from the concept until the final hand off to the 4th Infantry Division (ID), Fort Hood, TX. The program was extremely successful and has led to further advancements in battle command on the move. 2. Background 2.1. The Current Battle Command Currently, command and control is conducted from Command Posts (CP). There are three basic areas of battle command; the current fight, future planning, and support. The current fight is the responsibility of the Division Tactical (DTAC) CP, which is usually small and mobile and allows the commander to plan and monitor the battle from a remote location. -
What Is the Upper Limit of Value?
WHAT IS THE UPPER LIMIT OF VALUE? Anders Sandberg∗ David Manheim∗ Future of Humanity Institute 1DaySooner University of Oxford Delaware, United States, Suite 1, Littlegate House [email protected] 16/17 St. Ebbe’s Street, Oxford OX1 1PT [email protected] January 27, 2021 ABSTRACT How much value can our decisions create? We argue that unless our current understanding of physics is wrong in fairly fundamental ways, there exists an upper limit of value relevant to our decisions. First, due to the speed of light and the definition and conception of economic growth, the limit to economic growth is a restrictive one. Additionally, a related far larger but still finite limit exists for value in a much broader sense due to the physics of information and the ability of physical beings to place value on outcomes. We discuss how this argument can handle lexicographic preferences, probabilities, and the implications for infinite ethics and ethical uncertainty. Keywords Value · Physics of Information · Ethics Acknowledgements: We are grateful to the Global Priorities Institute for highlighting these issues and hosting the conference where this paper was conceived, and to Will MacAskill for the presentation that prompted the paper. Thanks to Hilary Greaves, Toby Ord, and Anthony DiGiovanni, as well as to Adam Brown, Evan Ryan Gunter, and Scott Aaronson, for feedback on the philosophy and the physics, respectively. David Manheim also thanks the late George Koleszarik for initially pointing out Wei Dai’s related work in 2015, and an early discussion of related issues with Scott Garrabrant and others on asymptotic logical uncertainty, both of which informed much of his thinking in conceiving the paper. -
Network-Centric Operations Case Study: the Stryker Brigade Combat Team
THE ARTS This PDF document was made available CHILD POLICY from www.rand.org as a public service of CIVIL JUSTICE the RAND Corporation. EDUCATION ENERGY AND ENVIRONMENT Jump down to document6 HEALTH AND HEALTH CARE INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS The RAND Corporation is a nonprofit NATIONAL SECURITY research organization providing POPULATION AND AGING PUBLIC SAFETY objective analysis and effective SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY solutions that address the challenges SUBSTANCE ABUSE facing the public and private sectors TERRORISM AND HOMELAND SECURITY around the world. TRANSPORTATION AND INFRASTRUCTURE WORKFORCE AND WORKPLACE Support RAND Purchase this document Browse Books & Publications Make a charitable contribution For More Information Visit RAND at www.rand.org Explore RAND National Defense Research Institute View document details Limited Electronic Distribution Rights This document and trademark(s) contained herein are protected by law as indicated in a notice appearing later in this work. This electronic representation of RAND intellectual property is provided for non- commercial use only. Permission is required from RAND to reproduce, or reuse in another form, any of our research documents. This product is part of the RAND Corporation monograph series. RAND monographs present major research findings that address the challenges facing the public and private sectors. All RAND mono- graphs undergo rigorous peer review to ensure high standards for research quality and objectivity. Network-Centric Operations Case Study The Stryker Brigade Combat Team Daniel Gonzales, Michael Johnson, Jimmie McEver, Dennis Leedom, Gina Kingston, Michael Tseng Prepared for the Office of Force Transformation in the Office of the Secretary of Defense Approved for public release; distribution unlimited The research described in this report was prepared for the Office of the Secretary of Defense (OSD). -
Less Wrong Sequences Pdf
Less wrong sequences pdf Continue % Print Ready Lesswrong Sequences Print Friendly Versions of Lesswrong Sequence, Enjoy! The basic sequences of Mysterious Answers to Mysterious Questions How to See through many disguises of answers or beliefs or statements that do not respond or say or mean nothing. The first (and probably most important) main sequence on Less Wrong. the epub pdf-version of the reductionism discount the second core sequence is less wrong. How to make the reality apart... and live in this universe where we have always lived without feeling frustrated that complex things are made of simpler things. Includes zombies and Joy in just real subsequences epub (en) pdf-version marking quantum physics is not a mysterious introduction to quantum mechanics, designed to be available to those who can grok algebra and complex numbers. Cleaning up the old confusion about SM is used to introduce basic issues into rationality (such as the technical version of Occam's Razor), epistemology, dredonism, naturalism, and philosophy of science. Do not dispense reading, although the exact reasons for the retreat are difficult to explain before reading. epub pdf-version of the markup Fun Theory is a specific theory of transhuman values. How much pleasure there is in the universe; We will someday run out of fun; We have fun yet; we could have more fun. Part of the complexity of the value thesis. It is also part of a fully general response to religious theododicy. epub pdf-version marking Minor sequences smaller collection of messages. Usually parts of the main sequences that depend on some, but not all points are entered.