TACE PROCESS - EVALUATION REPORT OCTOBER 2013 Investor Newsletter ! -US Academic Workshops “TACE Process” - External Evaluation Report 2008-2013 Based on the findings of the external evaluation process conducted by Prof. Wolf Grabendorff

PROCESS Introductory words and acknowledgements HIGHLIGHTS This report is the result of an the Global Partnership for the 2008 external evaluation process of a unique Prevention of Armed Conflict, PREPARATORY STAGE effort by Cuban and U.S. scholars, former CORDAID, Christopher Reynolds Context analysis - Consultation diplomats and foreign policy experts to Foundation, Arca Foundation, the process with scholars and institutions explore ways of improving the bilateral Office of the Heinrich Böll Foundation, in both the U.S. and Cuba - Process relations. The whole of the TACE the Center for Latin and Latino Studies design - Invitation to participants - Process intended to be a building block at American University, UNESP, Argentine Appointment of National in the development of a respectful and Council for International Relations – Coordinators in both countries positive Cuban-U.S. relationship, CARI-, City of Knowledge in Panama, especially in areas of mutual interest, FANJHN from Cuba, the Brookings 2009-2010-2011 WORKSHOPS where opportunities for cooperation Institution, Institute of Metheorology of Activities to address bilateral issues exist. Cuba, Molecular Immunology Center of identified as priorities: São Paulo CRIES would like to thank Prof. Cuba, Cuban Academy of Sciences, and (June 2009)-Panama (May 2010)- Wolf Grabendorff for taking the the Biomolecular Chemistry Center of (July 2010)-Toronto responsibility of conducting this external Cuba). (October 2010)-Mexico D.F. (July evaluation process, with great dedication 2011) and professionalism. Additionally, we would like to show 2012 TACE IN THE CAPITALS our appreciation to the TACE Turning-point in the process: participants for their collaboration participants meet in , and have during the four-years project, the the opportunity to meet with several Coordinators and the facilitation high government representatives - team for their engagement and “We want to express our deepest gratitude Later that year, they meet in commitment with this endeavor, and to to all of them for silently contributing to Washington D.C. to present the other people and advisers who improve relations between our countries and preliminary recommendations at the contributed with their build peace in our hemisphere, within the Brookings Institution, to scholars and recommendations, knowledge and framework of an initiative that reflects a decision-makers. suggestions to improve this collective strong commitment to the values of seeking effort. a more peaceful and fair world.” 2013 PUBLICATION OF Finally, our special RECOMMENDATIONS acknowledgements to institutions (Andrés Serbin - President of CRIES and Document with recommendations in and donors who supported us General Coordinator of the TACE initiative) 4 key areas published and advocacy throughout the years to develop this strategies implemented to reach initiative (Ford Foundation; the Royal both governments. Norwegian Ministry of Foreign Affairs,

COORDINADORA REGIONAL DE INVESTIGACIONES ECONÓMICAS Y SOCIALES (CRIES) www.cries.org TACE PROCESS - EVALUATION REPORT OCTOBER 2013

“ACADEMIC DIPLOMACY THE KEY CONCEPT “In the history of the conflict between Cuba and the there have been collaborative spaces that, despite not being highly publicized, have been sustained and are growing.” Milagros Martínez Reinosa

Given the tension that has characterized the relationship between Havana and Washington, participants engaged in these exchanges have been, to a large extent, the real diplomats representing their nation in the other country.

“A group of academics, former diplomats, experts and former officers (...) became part of an initiative to create a space for exchanges, where the discussion of perspectives, ideas and proposals started creating options rooted in mutual agreement, and where academia started contributing to end the existing stalemate. In contrast to other undertakings of this kind made by think tanks and academic institutions in both countries, a key advantage in TACE’s exercise is that it is based on unanimous consent—achieved between participants from both sides—without involving any formal agreements in recognition of the fact that there is a legacy of distrust that cannot be ignored, and that reciprocal visions are not only derived from political differences, but they also have roots in history. Despite these differences, there is no impediment to jointly explore opportunities to improve the bilateral relationship in topics of mutual interest.” Jorge Mario Sánchez Egozcue

Introduction & for the first time or re-evaluate their To avoid to reflect only an views about the bilateral relations after “inside view” in the evaluation of the Methodological many years of absence. TACE process the outside expert aspects As a major product of their suggested to involve a “control group” of common efforts the TACE team has 4 outstanding experts in U.S.- Cuban recently published a compendium of joint relations. They were asked to respond to The four years lasting program recommendations as proposals for the same questions with the exception of “academic diplomacy” Cuba-United cooperation in areas of mutual interest of the one dealing with the intra group States Academic Workshop (TACE) called “Opportunities for U.S. –Cuban dynamics of the TACE team. Since all of coordinated by CRIES has received a Relations” which was presented to the the 4 members of the control group great deal of praise by academic as well public in Washington D.C. were well aware of the TACE process as political observers for its original For CRIES this seemed a they were very forthcoming in their efforts to develop the basis for a future perfect moment of having the entire cooperation with the evaluation effort cooperation between the United States TACE process evaluated by an outside and therefore permitting an outside view and Cuba. The process of slow change expert who was neither involved in the of the TACE program to be included in within Cuba had been the impetus for process itself nor related to any of the the evaluation. CRIES to suggest a medium term organisations funding or executing this bilateral academic activity with tacit and unusual and original project of “citizen All 12 experts who have rather informal support from both diplomacy”. responded to the evaluation governments. The basis for the evaluation of questionnaire have been ensured that The selection of the members the project has been a qualitative their observations will be handled of the TACE team was in itself a method, based on a questionnaire confidentially and no personal successful experiment to create a basis developed by the outside expert and identification will be used in this short of confidence building between not only mailed to all members of the TACE evaluation report. academic but also policy experts from team. Four (4) members of each side both sides, since about half of the team were willing to collaborate in the had been involved in the political Prof. Wolf Grabendorff evaluation effort by answering by mail or decision making process of the phone the 8 questions about their respective governments. The 8 Cuban perceptions of the development of the and the 9 US members of the TACE team groups coherence, activities and goals as have met 10 times over the four year well as the future perspectives for the period in 8 different countries allowing TACE program. many of the US participants to visit Cuba

COORDINADORA REGIONAL DE INVESTIGACIONES ECONÓMICAS Y SOCIALES (CRIES) www.cries.org TACE PROCESS - EVALUATION REPORT OCTOBER 2013 Q&A

1. Since the beginning of the TACE process until now, willingness to improve the political dialogue, which has been demonstrated clearly by both governments during the last couple which changes of perception about U.S.-Cuban of years. The Cuban members of the team are very convinced relations have you personally experienced, and which that the access to their policy makers for TACE proposals has changes have you noticed inside the group? been much better than on the US side and that some TACE proposals even found their way in formal Cuban policy proposals like the speech of the Foreign Minister at the UN in October Even though some members of the group reflect upon 2012.Even some of the US members of TACE share that view but some small changes of individual perceptions most do not see a insist that the willingness to listen to the TACE proposals has also major change with regard to the groups perceptions en general. improved at the State Department and outright rejection has The ideological rift is still very much present as seen from both only been coming from the Republican hard liners in Congress. the Cuban and the US member’s responses. A gap of knowledge There is also an agreement on both sides that the of historical background and the national decision making influence of the TACE process has been notable upon experts processes on both sides and a lack of openness to embrace the and officials who are not members of the TACE team but have possibilities of change are seen as the principal reasons for the been in contact with those members or have been participating slow process of confidence building within the group. But there is in some of the events of the TACE process as experts and have also a general agreement that the increasing number of meetings than been able to transport some of the TACE concepts into the helped to widen the possibilities of consensus on some of those respective policy processes. Additional clarifications seem to be bilateral issues where the official positions of both governments needed in one of the positive developments resulting at least in seem to be totally unbridgeable. part from the TACE efforts – the increasing academic With regard to the TACE process itself the US engagement. While the State Department seems to be willing to members seem - with one exception- to be much more go along with some of the TACE recommendations, there are optimistic than the Cuban members, who seem to doubt a indications that the Cuban government might disclassify these medium to long term spin off effect of the TACE process. This efforts as “subversive objectives” and thereby endanger one of might be explained by the lack of experience as well as the lack the major impacts of the TACE project. of impact of such exercises in “academic diplomacy” on the On the critical side doubts have been mentioned by US Cuban side. members of the TACE team that the recent positive The responses of some members also reflected certain moments achievements in U.S.- Cuban relations are concentrated upon of frustration about the non transparent changes over time in the issues of mutual interest, where it has been rather easy to make groups composition. Some criticism was also voiced about the the necessary “concessions” on both sides, but that even the sum fact that all U.S team members seem to belong to the group of “ of those single issue improvements will not very likely have a usual suspects”, meaning experts in favour of better relations lasting impact upon the willingness to consider concessions upon with Cuba, and no one from the “hard line” side, which has been the central conflictive issues in the complex and complicated very influential in the U.S. policy making process during the last bilateral relationship which is of enormous “intermestic” decades. importance in both countries. But none of these observations has clouded the general satisfaction of the respondents across the board with the TACE process of seeking bilateral consensus among very dedicated individuals for opening perspectives for better U.S. Cuban relations.

2. What have been the changes in the relations, the policies, the conduct and the praxis of the actors outside the group, and which of those changes would you attribute to the efforts of the initiative?

Most respondents found it very difficult to pin down some of the obvious changes in the positions of both governments to the TACE process, in part because of a certain

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3. How would you evaluate the process as such? (Its A few of the TACE members seem to feel that some of the recommendations - especially with regard to the academic and methodology, its organization, and the coordination by cultural exchanges and the environmental cooperation - are CRIES? redundant since some of those ideas have already been implemented by the two governments. The TACE process as such has been praised as excellent, thoughtful and original especially from the members of 5. Which of the recommendations would you consider the control group, who stressed the political importance of the the most important ones and for what reasons? participation of members from both countries, which was hardly the case of many other “Cuba policy recommendations” elaborated and published by import US institutions. The most important recommendation is for all From the inside, there was some criticism - principally respondents by a large margin the terrorism and security issue from the US members of the team -on the methodology, followed by the environmental, commercial and academic issues organization and coordination of the process. Especially the role which are seen by about half of the respondents at about an of the facilitator was not seen as very positive or even necessary equal level as the second most important recommendations. The given the wide academic and in part also policy experience of the travel freedom recommendation was only seen by two TACE participants. The role of the national coordinators received very team members as of overriding importance. positive comments from all members while some would have There are various ways of interpreting this ranking of preferred also a stronger role by the CRIES coordinator. importance. Some TACE team members are taking it for granted In general some members would have liked more that only in the security and the environment issues are sufficient forceful and disciplined discussions, which could have been common interest and political will on the side of both streamlined by stronger moderators. At the other hand many governments to move forward. At the other hand both issues respondents felt that the conciliatory and efficient conduct by appear to a certain extent much more technical than the other CRIES has been a great asset for the success of the TACE fields of the recommendations and therefore are seen by both process. There seemed to be a preference for having the governments as almost manageable without very extensive meetings rather divided between the U.S. and Cuba and not revisions of the traditional bilateral positions. The one – and very involving third countries, which was by some members attributed important – exception of this interpretation is the proposed to the lack of funds and the necessity to involve other removal of Cuba from the list of state sponsors of terrorism by institutions with limited interest in the bilateral issue. Other the U.S. government since such a move would have not only a members felt to the contrary that the involvement of Latin number of ideological and practical consequences for Cuba but America and the characterization of these difficult bilateral would signal also to the entire international community that relations as a hemispheric problem could help to facilitate a Cuba is not any more part of the axis of evil for the U.S. For that political dialogue between the two countries. very reason there seems to be clear opposition in the U.S. Congress against such an international “upgrading” of Cuba – which makes this very issue at the same time so essential for the Cuban side. 4. Are you in agreement with the published The academic, scientific and cultural issue is considered by some members of the TACE team as the basis for reducing all recommendations? If not, which ones do you disagree traditional political positions based on ignorance and therefore with? For what reasons? essential for all other recommendations to find acceptance on both sides. The commerce and development issue seems to be It comes at no surprise that all TACE team members (who seen especially from the Cuban side as central for the success of responded) as well as all control group members are in the ongoing economic reform process. Two respondents have agreement with the published recommendations. Some would been missing two issues in the recommendations which are of have liked others to be included and blame the lack of time for great importance to both countries: cooperation in public health hammering out an intra group consensus for the missing and hurricane disasters’. recommendations on some important issues. Others would have Because of their technical nature such cooperation preferred more time for the editing process since they are not could be easily established and would not only contribute to the entirely content with the form of their presentation. process of bilateral confidence building but also to an important image change of Cuba given the extensive capacity in these fields the country has demonstrated internationally.

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6. Would you consider fulfilled the objectives of the working group with less Cuba experts, but more Cuban- Americans and more economists, military and cost guard TACE project with the final document of representatives as well as agricultural, trade, health and recommendations? If not, what further activities environmental specialists. Such a group could overcome possibly would you consider pertinent for the TACE process? the traditional quite secretive process of Cuban policy making and would complement the existing advocacy groups in the US who concentrate more on the educational aspects of the public To which extent all objectives of the TACE process have discussion on bilateral issues with Cuba .Once a year that group been met depends obviously very much on the expectations of could than meet with its Cuban counterpart not only to compare the different members of the team. Again satisfaction seems to be notes but rather to hammer out policy proposals which might be higher on the Cuban than on the US side of the members. From acceptable to both governments. their viewpoint it might be interesting to wait for two years – The Cuban team members seem to be less sure that it until the end of the Obama Administration – and then revisit the would possible to constitute such a national group given the recommendations, and discuss why some have been implemented exceptionally secretive tradition of foreign policy making in while others have not and what might be a promising way of Cuba. They are also aware of the implicit imbalance between the establishing new ones for the incoming U.S. Administration. more governmental and less governmental members such a Meanwhile some more detailed recommendations on some of national working group would imply. They seem rather to favour the issues – like academic exchange - might be useful to creating specialized subgroups on the national level for the elaborate given the interest in that topic by both governments. different issues of the TACE recommendations with the intention Another suggestion was to continue the TACE process in form of that those groups might than have a yearly meeting with their an independent bi-national Commission including new members U.S. counterparts. One Cuban team member suggested and issues. establishing such a specialized subgroup on academic exchange The US members of the team seemed less convinced right away. about the fulfilment of the TACE objectives but for different reasons. They criticized that the recommendations were concentrating too much on the converging interests and not sufficiently upon the sensitive and conflictive points of the 8. Should the TACE process be extender to move from complex relationship. Among the members of the control group “bilateral” to “multilateral” efforts, including other there was even the feeling the recommendations were not bold enough and would therefore not create sufficient public countries? If so, which ones would you suggest? discussion to really influence the policy making process. All U.S. members of the team felt it was now time to turn to the difficult The idea to involve other countries or at least experts process of “massaging” the policy makers in both capitals and of other nationalities in the TACE process finds little agreement possibly trying to establish a “track two” mechanism which might among most respondents. In part because both governments transport the messages of TACE directly into the policy making have stated publicly that they do not wish to have any process. Another suggestion was to continue the TACE process intermediates’ in their conflictive relationship and also because but to concentrate upon formulating policy options which might the efforts by former Latin American presidents to express than draw attention to the costs and benefits of the various through the Inter American Dialogue their desire for political options resulting from the TACE recommendations. dialogue between the U.S. and Cuba has not been successful at all. It is rather feared my many team members that the difficult 7. Would you find the establishment of national bilateral relations of some other Latin American countries with working groups for the advancement of U.S.-Cuban the U.S. could negatively effect the future relations with Cuba. and come to mind in that context. There is no relations a useful initiative for the TACE process? If doubt among the TACE team that and , Mexico and yes, what type of membership would you suggest? might have an interest in the general improvement of the relations between the U.S and Cuba but it seems doubtful that the might be willing to pay a “political price” for pressuring A wide majority of the respondents favours the openly the U.S. administration. Some team members nevertheless establishment of national working groups, but there seems to be would find the invitation of “foreign” experts to specialized less agreement about their structure and membership. The US future TACE meetings useful especially in a more academic team members as well as some members of the control group context. are looking for a different mix of expertise for the national

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Conclusions might be easier than the current TACE any possible future activities in “academic process with regard to the possibilities of diplomacy: previous informal “test runs” with the Since the outside expert had respective governments. The heavy - no publicity until at least some the opportunity to interview three workload for the national chairs such a mutual confidence between the members of the Cuban TACE team and a format involves should be reduced by an participants has been number of Cuban officials and academics extensive logistical and administrative established during a recent visit to Havana a number support from an outside institution like - no governmental tutelage of of suggestions for possible future CRIES. Not only from a political but also the process wherever possible activities in the context of the TACE from an efficiency point of view such an to avoid any “back channel” process might be useful. Some of the arrangement seems to fit the established image proposals here included have benefitted TACE “philosophy” better than the - selection of very dedicated and a great deal from these off- the- record suggested continuation of work in form well informed participants who conversations in Havana since they have of a Bi-National Commission, which in the best of circumstances without any doubt reconfirmed the most would be much more difficult to cannot expect any direct positive impact the TACE process has establish and would definitively have benefits from the results of had within Cuba. Given the restricted much less flexibility in its form of their efforts possibilities for official media coverage of operation and policy impact. - provision of international - and “difficult issues” on the island the possibly “neutral” - logistical extensive reporting of the TACE Since the idea to multilateralize and financial support recommendations by Prensa Latina (The the TACE process has not been very Havana Reporter June 20, 2013) could popular with the majority of the TACE There are a number of rather only be interpreted as a semi-official members - without much difference “permanent” bilateral and eventually very endorsement. There seems to be a wide between the Cuban and the U.S. team serious conflict scenarios in the region consensus within the Cuban academic members – the outside expert would where a similar format of “academic and certainly also in a substantial part of opt for two different strategies to diplomacy” as in the case of the TACE the political establishment that such a continue the successful efforts of process could possibly be considered: successful instrument of “academic “academic diplomacy”. The first one diplomacy” should be continued - in would be the “bilateral way” with the - US – Brazil great part because the bilateral combination of two independently - United Kingdom – Argentina relationship with the U.S. is still seen as operating national groups as outlined - – Bolivia the most important political issue of the above. The second could be a - – country. The continued lack of a clear “multilateral way” with the intention to perspective for the establishment of a “educate” the policy (and also the Since none of these bilateral “respectful” political dialogue with the academic) communities in the region conflicts seem to have such a complex U.S. seems to be seen as having serious about the enormous international historical, ideological and economic effects upon the ongoing – and still fairly implications of an absence of political identity as the US-Cuba conflict the limited - economic reform process, dialogue and the problem of exclusion in lessons from the TACE process could especially given the uncertain future of the case of the bilateral conflict between probably be adapted without major the relationship with Venezuela. The small the US and Cuba. Such an effort of an efforts into other examples of “academic changes in some of the contentious educational campaign in Latin America by diplomacy” and thereby contribute to issues with the U.S. are not considered CRIES could extend the lessons of the the reduction of regional conflict as clear indications for the way to TACE process to the bilateral and scenarios whose international impact further dialogue but rather as signs of trilateral conflicts which seem currently should not be underestimated. “convenience” with regard to certain to dominate the complex agenda of domestic policy necessities in the U.S. regional governance efforts. The TACE experience with previous regional With regard to the future partners could probably serve as a point forms of advancing the TACE process it of reference for such a program of appears to the outside expert that extended “academic diplomacy” which national groups with an enlarged would doubtless produce indirect membership to include wider issue benefits for the ongoing bilateral TACE experience and even political orientation process as well. (in the U.S. case) seem to be the best instrument for developing a more There are many lessons to be detailed agenda with specific “national” learned from the TACE experiment as an policy suggestions. The selection of new outstanding example of “academic members should also be easier in a diplomacy” which should by no means be national context taking into account the identified with the “public diplomacy” personality clashes which have which seems to be currently the accompanied the TACE process in the favourite concept for public relations in last years. But both national groups international affairs. Since the outside should meet at least once, better twice a expert has had some experience with bi- year in a secluded “retreat” for an and trilateral efforts for conflict extensive “harmonisation session” to reduction in the Western Hemisphere it work out agreements about the policy seems worthwhile to list some of the proposals from both sides. The process very important working conditions for

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About TACE taken as an input for the ideas that led to Compendium of the compendium of recommendations. recommendations

At the outset of the process, the participants listed the grievances of each TACE side towards the other, and then classified them in terms of their PARTICIPANTS COORDINATION: complexity, feasibility, and urgency. Ultimately, five issue areas were prioritized: GROUP MEMBERS: General Coordinator: Andrés Serbin (CRIES) 1) Academic, Scientific and Cuba: Cultural Engagement Carlos Alzugaray Treto; Soraya National Group Coordinators: 2) Freedom to travel Castro*; Armando Fernández; Jorge Hernández; Rafael 3) International Commerce and Hernández*; Antonio Romero; Milagros Martínez Reinosa (Cuba) Development Jorge Mario Sánchez Egozcue. Philip Brenner (United States)

4) Terrorism and Security Issues United States: 5) Environment Margaret Crahan; Richard FACILITATION: Feinberg; Anya Landau-French; All of the recommendations can be Theodore Piccone; Anthony Facilitator: found in a document published by Quainton; Sally Shelton-Colby; Edy Kaufman CRIES, or at http://www.cries.org/wp- Sarah Stephens; Lawrence content/uploads/2013/06/tace-final- Wilkerson. Co-facilitators: web.pdf Ana Bourse; Eliana Spadoni **

INVITED EXPERTS CRIES SUPPORT STAFF: Participants Aurelio Alonso; Cristina Díaz; Celeste Ronzano Omar Everleny Pérez; José The TACE project brought together Rubiera; Vicente Vérez; Jorge a total of seventeen (17) participants. Pastrana; Anicia García; Ileana These include eight (8) Cubans and nine Sorolla; Juan Triana; Leslie Yañez; * No longer a participant. (9) representatives from the United Teresita Borges; Ramón Pichs States. Nonetheless, only some of the Madruga y Luis Enrique * * Facilitator for first two participants have been involved in every Fernández. meetings of the process. meeting. In addition to the group members, six (6) Cuban specialists were invited to specific workshops, where they had the opportunity to make valuable contributions to the discussion on some particular topics. Their knowledge was

COORDINADORA REGIONAL DE INVESTIGACIONES ECONÓMICAS Y SOCIALES (CRIES) www.cries.org TACE PROCESS - EVALUATION REPORT OCTOBER 2013

PARTICIPANTS Participants in this evaluation process IN THE EVALUATION This report was produced on the the one dealing with the intra group basis of the answers received from 12 dynamics of the TACE team. selected participants. Eight (8) of them, FROM CUBA Carlos Alzugaray Treto - Armando were members of the TACE group, and Fernández - Milagros Martínez - therefore, provided an “insider” perspective regarding the questionnaire. Antonio Romero They were randomly selected from the overall list of participants, but FROM UNITED STATES EXTERNAL Margaret Crahan - Theodore considering to have half of them from Piccone - Sally Shelton-Colby - each national group. EVALUATOR Lawrence Wilkerson The “control group” of four (4) outstanding experts in U.S.- Cuban PROF. WOLF relations, was asked to respond to the EXTERNAL EXPERTS GRABENDORFF Jorge I. Domínguez (Harvard same questions with the exception of University) - Eric Hershberg (American University) - William Prof. Grabendorff is a German political scientist and consultant M. Leo Grande (American specializing in Latin American University) - Julia Sweig (Council international and security relations. on Foreign Affairs).

CRIES STAFF

PRESIDENT Andrés Serbin

EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR Ana Bourse Lavalle 1916 9 A (1048) C.A.B.A. COMITÉ EJECUTIVO Andrei Serbin Pont - RESEARCH COORDINATOR Argentina Tel./Fax: +54 11 4372 8351 Celeste Ronzano - OFFICE MANAGER & FINANCIAL COORDINATOR Website: www.cries.org

Rodolfo Wlasiuk - PUBLICATIONS COORDINATOR