ABOUT THE COVER
POWERING THE NATION
This Power Development Plan serves as the path in powering the nation from 2016 and beyond. The cover depicts the invaluable role of the electric power industry in fuelling and sustaining the country’s economic growth and development.
The Department of Energy (DOE) envisions for the Philippine energy industry to be globally competitive in utilizing energy in Filipino communities through clean, efficient, robust and sustainable systems in order to create wealth and transform the lives of the Filipinos. Recognizing its role, the DOE reaffirms its commitment - to ensure quality, reliability, security, and affordabiliity of the supply of electric power.
Through an integrated approach, the Power Development Plan 2016-2040 encompasses all subsectors - generation, transmission, distribution and supply; as well as the development of the market, other institutional support mechanisms and electrification roadmaps. POWER DEVELOPMENT PLAN 2016 - 2040 MESSAGE FROM THE SECRETARY
he Department of Energy (DOE) is honored to present its Power TDevelopment Plan (PDP) 2016-2040. This blueprint will shape and redefine the future of the Philippine electric power industry.
In line with the country’s long term national vision to be a middle- class society contained in the AmBisyon 2040, the PDP exemplifies the DOE’s aspiration to be a globally-competitive agency powering up Filipino communities through clean, efficient, robust and sustainable energy systems. The DOE aims to create wealth, propel industries and transform the lives of men and women and the future generations.
The power demand and supply outlook discussed in the PDP will guide ALFONSO G. CUSI investors, economic planners and stakeholders of the power sector’s SECRETARY future landscape in terms of electricity consumption, demand and capacity requirements in the advent of an industrialization-driven economic growth and development. Anchored on the DOE’s mandate to ensure quality, reliable, accessible, sustainable and reasonably-priced energy, the DOE envisions to implement the policies embodied and programs identified in this PDP over the short-, medium- and long-term horizons.
Holistic on its approach, the DOE formulated the power sector roadmaps encompassing the generation, transmission, distribution and supply subsectors infused with market development and institutional support mechanisms. As a result, electrification roadmaps to increase energy access down to households, off-grid and missionary areas are also embraced in this plan.
Widening and diversifying the supply base of the country to satisfy the growing demand for electricity remains the DOE’s priority. This entails the upscale of power generation capacities in Luzon, Visayas and Mindanao which must be primarily complemented by the Transmission Development Plan covering in detail the expansion and upgrading of the transmission system and its connection to the Distribution Development Plan that provides the distribution infrastructure.
Thus, the DOE envisions the transformation of the current system into an integrated, climate-resilient, technologically-advanced and fully competitive electric power industry. It will resolve concomitant issues and challenges, foster stronger ties with its attached agencies, the energy regulator, the private sector, the government agencies and other stakeholders. The DOE will likewise engage in international collaborations to realize the plans and programs in the PDP.
By 2016 and beyond, the electric power industry will boost the necessary changes in firming up the Philippines’ growth and development momentum.
ALFONSO G. CUSI Secretary
i POWER DEVELOPMENT PLAN, 2016 2040 POWER DEVELOPMENT PLAN, 2016 2040 MESSAGE FROM THE SECRETARY CONTENTS Message from the Secretary i Contents ii Tables iv Figures v Annexes vi Abbreviations vii
01 Overview and Executive Summary 1
Philippine Electricity Pro le 3 02 Peak Demand, Electricity Consumption and Installed Capacity 4 Power Generation Mix 5 Power Rates 5 Industry Structure, Development Challenges and Key Policies 6
Five-Year Performance Assessment, 2011-2015 7 03 Demand 8 Electricity Sales and Consumption 8 Peak Demand 11 Supply 11 Capacity 11 Generation 16 Age and Economic Life of Power Generating Plants 18 Significant Incidents 19 2011 19 2012 20 2013 20 2014 22 2015 23 Challenges and Key Policies and Programs 25
ii POWER DEVELOPMENT PLAN, 2016-2040
Demand-Supply Outlook, 2016-2040 39 04 Electricity Demand Forecasting Methodology and Assumptions 40 1. Data Collection 40 2. Electricity Sales and Peak Demand Forecasts 41 3. Peak Demand Forecasting 41 Supply Expansion Plan 43 Supply Expansion Plan Methodology and Assumptions 43 Power Demand-Supply Outlook, 2016-2040 43
Power Sector Roadmap 48 05 Generation 49
Transmission 51
Distribution and Supply 52
Market Development 53
Institutional and Support Mechanism 55
Missionary Electrification 55
Electrification 57
06 ANNEXES 60
iii POWER DEVELOPMENT PLAN, 2016-2040
TABLES
Table 1. ASEAN-6 Peak Demand, Installed Capacity and Electricity Consumption 5
Table 2. 2015 ASEAN Electricity Rates, in Peso/kWh 6
Table 3. Electricity Sales and Consumption by Sector, 2011-2015 (in GWh) 9
Table 4. Electricity Sales and Consumption by Grid, 2011-2015 (in GWh) 10
Table 5. Luzon Additional Capacities, 2011-2015 (in MW) 13
Table 6. Visayas Additional Capacities, 2011-2015 (in MW) 14
Table 7. Mindanao Additional Capacities, 2011-2015 (in MW) 15
Table 8. Age of Power Generating Plants per Technology 19
Table 9. Bombed and Toppled Transmission Towers in Mindanao for 2015 25
Table 10. Status Report of Mindanao Modular Generator Set Program 27
Table 11. Installed and Dependable Capacity and Peak Demand in SIIGs, as of December 2015 29
Table 12. NPC-SPUG Increase in Operating Hours 30
Table 13. Missionary Areas with New Power Providers, as of December 2015 30
Table 14. NPC Electrified Areas, 2012-2015 30
Table 15. Household Electrification Level by Region, as of July 2016 32
Table 16. Sitio Electrification Program (SEP) Roadmap 33
Table 17. Benchmark Tariff for Solar Home System (SHS) 35
Table 18. Energy and Economic Growth Assumptions by Grid, 2016-2030 41
Table 19. SU/TL and Load Factor Assumptions 41
Table 20. Grid Peak Demand Forecast, 2016-2040 (in MW) 42
Table 21. Philippines Required Power System Capacity Addition, 2016-2040 43
Table 22. Luzon Required Annual Capacity Addition, 2016-2040 45
Table 23. Visayas Required Annual Capacity Addition, 2016-2040 46
Table 24. Mindanao Required Annual Capacity Addition, 2016-2040 47
Table 25. Household Electrification Sub-Programs and Targets for 2016-2017 59
iv POWER DEVELOPMENT PLAN, 2016-2040
FIGURES
Figure 1. Installed Capacity per capita (in KW) vs. GDP per capita 4
Figure 2. Electricity Consumption per capita (in KW) vs. GDP per capita 4
Figure 3. ASEAN-6 Power Generation Mix 5
Figure 4. Electric Power Industry Structure, ASEAN-6 6
Figure 5. Peak Demand, 2011-2015 (in MW) 11
Figure 6. Philippines Installed, Dependable and Available Capacity by Plant Type, 2011-2015 (in MW) 12
Figure 7. Luzon Installed, Dependable and Available Capacity by Plant Type, 2011-2015 (in MW) 13
Figure 8. Visayas Installed, Dependable and Available Capacity by Plant Type, 2011-2015 (in MW) 14
Figure 9. Mindanao Installed, Dependable and Available Capacity by Plant Type, 2011-2015 (in MW) 15
Figure 10. Philippine Power Generation Mix, 2011-2015 (in GWh) 16
Figure 11. Luzon Power Generation Mix, 2011-2015 (in GWh) 16
Figure 12. Visayas Power Generation Mix, 2011-2015 (in GWh) 17
Figure 13. Mindanao Power Generation Mix, 2011-2015 (in GWh) 18
Figure 14. Electricity Sales and Peak Demand Forecast 40
Figure 15. Philippines Demand-Supply Outlook, 2016-2040 44
Figure 16. Luzon Demand-Supply Outlook, 2016-2040 45
Figure 17. Visayas Demand-Supply Outlook, 2016-2040 46
Figure 18. Mindanao Demand-Supply Outlook, 2016-2040 47
Figure 19. Power Sector Roadmap 2017-2040, Generation 50
Figure 20. Power Sector Roadmap 2017-2040, Transmission 51
Figure 21. Power Sector Roadmap 2017-2040, Distribution and Supply 53
Figure 22. Power Sector Roadmap 2017-2040, Market Development and Institutional Support Mechanism 54
Figure 23. Power Sector Roadmap 2017-2040, Missionary Electrification 56
Figure 24. Power Sector Roadmap 2017-2040, Electrification Roadmap 58
v POWER DEVELOPMENT PLAN, 2016-2040
ANNEXES
Annex 1. Philippine Historical Electricity Consumption and Peak Demand to GDP Elasticity, 2004-2015 61
Annex 2. Luzon Historical Electricity Consumption and Peak Demand to GRDP Elasticity, 2004-2015 62
Annex 3. Visayas Historical Electricity Consumption and Peak Demand to GRDP Elasticity, 2004-2015 63
Annex 4. Mindanao Historical Electricity Consumption and Peak Demand to GRDP Elasticity, 2004-2015 64
Annex 5. Electricity Sales and Consumption by Sector, 2003-2015 (in GWh) 65
Annex 6. Electricity Sales and Consumption by Sector, per Grid, 2003-2015 (in GWh) 66
Annex 7. Annual System Peak Demand per Grid, 1985-2015 (in MW) 67
Annex 8. Visayas Annual System Peak Demand per Sub-Grid, 1995-2015 (in MW) 68
Annex 9. Luzon Monthly System Peak Demand, 2001-2015 (in MW) 69
Annex 10. Visayas Monthly System Peak Demand, 2001-2015 (in MW) 70
Annex 11. Mindanao Monthly System Peak Demand, 2001-2015 (in MW) 71
Annex 12. Philippine Installed and Dependable Capacity by Plant Type, 2003-2015 (in MW) 72
Annex 13. Luzon Installed and Dependable Capacity by Plant Type, 2003-2015 (in MW) 73
Annex 14. Visayas Installed and Dependable Capacity by Plant Type, 2003-2015 (in MW) 74
Annex 15. Mindanao Installed and Dependable Capacity by Plant Type, 2003-2015 (in MW) 75
Annex 16. Philippine Gross Generation by Plant Type, 2003-2015 (in GWh) 76
Annex 17. Luzon, Visayas and Mindanao Gross Generation by Plant Type, 2003-2015 (in GWh) 77
Annex 18. Visayas Subgrid Gross Generation by Plant Type, 2003-2015 (in GWh) 78
Annex 19. Gross Power Generation by Ownership, 2003-2015 (in GWh) 80
vi POWER DEVELOPMENT PLAN, 2016-2040
ABBREVIATIONS
AAGR Annual Average Growth Rate AJCEPA ASEAN-Japan Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement AKFTA ASEAN-Korea Free Trade Agreement ANECO Agusan del Norte Electric Cooperative, Inc. ASEAN Association of South East Asian Nation BPO Business Process Outsourcing BSP Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas CAPEX Capital Expenditure CC Contestable Customers CSP Competitive Selection Process DANECO Davao del Norte Electric Cooperative, Inc. DBCC Development Budget Coordination Committee DBM Department of Budget and Management DC Department Circular DDPs Distribution Development Plans DOE Department of Energy DOF Department of Finance DOST Department of Science and Technology DU Distribution Utilities ECs Electric Cooperatives EGAT Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand EMA Energy Market Authority-Singapore EPC Engineering, Procurement and Construction EPIRA Electric Power Industry Reform Act ERAV Electricity Regulatory Authority of Vietnam ERC Energy Regulatory Commission GDP Gross Domestic Product GenCos Generation Companies GHG Greenhouse gas GOU Government Owned Utility GRDP Gross Regional Domestic Product GST Goods and Services Tax GW Gigawatt GWh Gigawatt Hour IEA International Energy Agency ILP Interruptible Load Program IMEM Interim Mindanao Electricity Market IMF International Monetary Fund IMO Independent Market Operator IPP Independent Power Producers kW Kilowatt kWh Kilowatt Hour LGU Local Government Unit vii POWER DEVELOPMENT PLAN, 2016-2040
MEF Missionary Electrification Fund MEIH Malaysian Energy Information Hub MERALCO Manila Electric Company MFSR Monthly Financial and Statistical Report MOR Monthly Operations Report MORESCO I Misamis Oriental - I Rural Electric Service Cooperative, Inc. MORESCO II Misamis Oriental II Electric Service Cooperative, Inc. MW Megawatt MWh Megawatt Hour NEA National Electrification Administration NEDA National Economic and Development Authority NGCP National Grid Corporation of the Philippines NMMS New Market Management Systems NPC National Power Corporation NPP New Power Provider NSCB National Statistical Coordination Board OP Office of the President OTEC Ocean thermal energy conversion PC Participating Customers PDP Power Development Plan PEMC Philippine Electricity Market Corporation PLN Perusahaan Listrik Negara/National Electric Company PNRI Philippine Nuclear Research Institute PSA Philippine Statistics Authority PSA Power Supply Agreement PSALM Power Sector Assets and Liabilities Management PV Photovoltaic RCOA Retail Competition and Open Access RD&D Research, Development and Demonstration RE Renewable Energy RES Retail Electricity Supplier ROW Right of Way RPS Renewable Portfolio Standards SIS System Impact Study SPUG Small Power Utilities Group SU Station Use SURNECO Surigao del Norte Electric Cooperative, Inc. TDP Transmission Development Plan TL Transmission Losses TransCo National Transmission Corporation TWG Technical Working Group WESM Wholesale Electricity Spot Market ZAMCELCO Zamboanga City Electric Cooperative, Inc.
viii T-D: 3x82MW CEDC Coal Power Plant - Global Business Power Corporation 314MW PEDC Coal Power Plant - Global Business Power Corporation 4x35MW Petron Refinery Solid Fuel-Fired Boiler (RSFFB) Power Plant - SMC Global Power POWER DEVELOPMENT PLAN, 2016 2040
he 2016-2040 Power Development Plan Plan likewise form part of the roadmaps in (PDP) provides the long-term outlook on order to present a more comprehensive Tthe demand and supply requirements in perspective in the power development sector. the three major Grids, namely: Luzon, Visayas and Mindanao. The PDP also presents the holistic power The realization of these roadmaps require the sector roadmaps for the short-, medium- and long- implementation of the policy thrusts and strategic term planning horizons. These roadmaps: directions of the DOE which are geared towards the full restructuring and reform in the electric • Draw their foundation on the DOE’s power industry under RA 9136 [otherwise known mandate to ensure the delivery of as the Electric Power Industry Reform Act of 2001 sustainable, stable, secure, sufficient, and (EPIRA)].
accessible energy; Overview Summary Executive and • Accord themselves with the DOE The PDP provides an analysis of the Philippine vision towards a globally-competitive electric power industry in relation to other energy industry that powers up Filipino ASEAN countries (Chapter II); an assessment of communities through clean, efficient, the Philippines’ five-year performance from 2011- robust and sustainable energy systems 2015 in terms of power statistics, challenges, and that will create wealth, propel industries programs and policies implemented prior to the and transform the lives of men and planning horizon (Chapter III). The Power Demand- women and the generations to come; Supply Outlook and Power Sector Roadmap from • Encompass programs and policies for 2016 to 2040 and the roadmaps are presented in the generation, transmission, distribution detail in Chapters IV and V. and supply subsectors as well as market development and institutional support mechanisms outlined in the Power Sector The 2016-2040 Power Roadmap, 2016-2040 (Chapter IV); and, Development Plan (PDP) • Align their plans with the national vision provides the long-term outlook contained in the Ambisyon 20401 that on the demand and supply the Philippines shall be a prosperous, requirements in the three predominantly middle-class society major Grids, namely: Luzon, where no one is poor; hence, a “Matatag, Visayas and Mindanao. The Maginhawa at Panatag na Buhay” (strongly PDP also presents the holistic rooted, comfortable, and secure life). power sector roadmaps for the short-, medium- and long-term planning horizons. The Missionary Electrification Development Plan and the Household Electrification Development
1Ambisyon Natin 2040 provides the long-term vision for the Philippines formulated by the National Economic and Development Authority (NEDA). Accessible at http://2040.neda.gov.ph/
2 430MW San Gabriel Combined-Cycle Power Plant - First NatGas Power Corp. NatGas Power - First Plant Power 430MW San Gabriel Combined-Cycle - FGP Corp. Plant Power Combined-Cycle 500MW San Lorenzo Ilijan Corp. - KEPCO Plant Power 1200MW Ilijan Combined-Cycle T-D: T-D: Philippine Electricity Pro le able . SE Pea Demand, Installed Capacity and Electricity Consumption able . SE Pea Demand, Installed Capacity and Electricity Consumption able . SE Pea Demand, Installed CapacityInstalled and Electricity Electricity Consumption able . SE Pea Demand, Installed CapacityPea andElectricity Electricity ConsumptionInstalled Population Installed CapacityElectricityConsumptionInstalled Electricity able . SE Pea Demand,Country Installed CapacityPea DemandandElectricity Consumption ConsumptionInstalledPea CapacityElectricity Installed Populationin million Population Capacity per Consumptioncapita Capacityper capitaConsumption able . SE Pea Demand, Installed Capacity and ElectricityCountryIn MW Consumptionin GW DemandInstalled inConsumption MW ElectricityCapacity Country Pea DemandElectricity Consumption able Installed. in SE million Pea Capacity Demand, Installed Capacityin and W Electricityper Consumption capitain W per capita Population in million InCapacity MW perin GW Consumption capita in MWper capita In MW in GW Installedin MWElectricity in W in W able . SE Pea Demand,Country Installed CapacityPea andDemandElectricity Electricity Consumption ConsumptionInstalled Capacity in W in W Population in millionPhilippines 99.88 11,822Installed Capacity77,261ElectricityperConsumption capita17,944 per capita0.18 Installed774 Electricity Country Demand InConsumption MW inPhilippines GW Capacity in99.88 MW 11,822Pea Electricity77,261 Installed17,944 0.18 774 Pea Electricity Installed Population in W in W Capacity Consumption Populationin millionPhilippinesThailand 99.88 67.00Installed11,822ThailandCountry 26,942CapacityElectricity77,26167.00perConsumption168,620 capita17,944Demand26,942per 34,668capitaConsumption168,6200.18 Capacity34,6680. 2 774 0. 22, 91 2, 91 Country Demand InConsumption MW in GW Capacity in MW in million per capita per capita Pea ElectricityIndonesiaInstalled 2 2.16 Indonesia33,321 2 2.16in221,296 W In33,321POWER MW in 3,066 DEVELOPMENTW in221,296 GW in 3,066PLAN,0.21 MW 2016 20400.21878 878 Population in millionPhilippines Thailand99.88 67.0011,822 Capacity26,94277,261perConsumption 168,620capita17,944per capita34,6680.18 0. 2774 2, 91 in W in W Country Demand InConsumption MW in GW Capacity in MW Malaysia 30.26 19,84 128,418 30,87 1.02 4,244 in millionPhilippines Thailand99.88Indonesia67.00Malaysia11,822 2 2.1626,94277,26130.26per33,321 capita168,62017,94419,84 inper221,296 W capita34,6680.18128,418in 3,066W 0. 277430,87 0.212, 91 1.02 878 4,244 In MW in GW in MW PhilippinesVietnam 99.8889.70 11,82219,772 77,261118,942 17,94427,323 0.180.30 7741,326 Vietnam 89.70in W 19,772in W 118,942 27,323 0.30 1,326 PhilippinesThailand 99.88Indonesia67.00Malaysia11,8222 2.1626,94277,26130.2633,321168,62017,94419,84 221,296Thailand ingapore34,6680.18128,418 3,06667.00 .470. 2 77430,87 26,9426,8690.212, 91168,62046,4031.02878 34,66812,8634,244 0. 22.3 2, 918,483 Indonesia 33,321 221,296 3,066 Philippines Thailand99.88Indonesia67.00Malaysia11,8222 2.16Vietnam26,94277,26130.26 ingapore33,321168,62089.7017,94419,84 221,296 .4734,66819,7720.18128,418 3,0666,869 0. 2Total118,942774 non30,87 2 2.16-coincident0.2146,4032, 9127,323 peak 1.0287812,8630.304,244 2.3 1,326 0.218,483 878 Malaysia 30.26 19,84 128,418 30,87 1.02 4,244 Malaysia Vietnam30.26 ingapore89.7019,84 .47Total19,772128,418 non-coincident6,869118,94230,87 peak 46,40327,3231.02 12,8630.304,244 2.3 1,326 8,483 Thailand Indonesia67.00 2 2.1626,942 33,321168,620 221,29634,668 3,0660. 2Vietnam 2. 0.212, 9189.70 87819,772 118,942 27,323 0.30 1,326 he Association of Southeast Total Asiannon-coincident Nations peak Indonesia Malaysia2 2.16Vietnam 30.26 ingapore33,321 89.7019,84 221,296 .4719,772128,418 3,0666,869118,94230,87 0.2146,403 ingapore27,3231.0287812,863 .470.304,2446,8692.3 1,32646,403 8,48312,863 2.3 8,483 2. 2 Malaysia Vietnam30.26 ingapore(ASEAN),89.7019,84 including .47 Total19,772128,418 non -ctheoincident6,869 118,94230,87 Philippines, peak46,40327,323 1.02 12,863 0.30Total4,244 non-coincident2.3 1,326 peak 8,483 Philippines 2. Total non-coincident peak 2 1. Thailand Vietnam ingapore89.70embarks .4719,772 on enhancing6,869118,942 the46,403 27,323generation,12,863 0.30 2. 2.3 1,326 8,483 2. able . SE Pea Demand, Installed Capacity and Electricity ConsumptionPhilippines Indonesia ingapore .47 Total non-coincident6,869 peak46,4032 12,863 2.3 1 8,483 T 2 2. 1. Malaysia transmission, distribution and ablesupply . SE side as Pea part Demand, Installed Capacity and Electricity ConsumptionPhilippines Thailand Philippines Total non-coincident peak 2 0. Installed ElectricityVietnam 2. able . SE 1. Pea Demand, Installed CapacityPea 1. andElectricity Electricity ConsumptionInstalledPhilippines Thailand Indonesia Thailand of its national2 priorities because it recognizes1 its ingapore Population 0 Installed CapacityElectricityConsumptionIndonesia 2. 1. W in capita per Capacity Installed 1 Indonesia Malaysia able . SE Pea 1 Demand,Country Installed CapacityPea DemandandElectricity 0 Consumption 10,000 ConsumptionInstalled 20,000Philippines Capacity 30,000Thailand 40,000 0,000 60,000 2 in million per capita per capitaMalaysia role in having1. a secured power demand-supplyPopulation0. InstalledGDP Per Capita Capacity in SDElectricityConsumption able . SE Pea Demand,Country Installed Capacity Demandand Electricity InConsumption 0. MW ConsumptionPhilippinesin GW CapacityThailand in MWIndonesia Malaysia Vietnam 2 1 Pea Electricity Installed in W in W Vietnam Population0. in million Capacity perConsumption capita per capita ablechain . SE 1. towards Pea Demand,theCountry attainment Installed Capacityof economic andDemand Electricity and InConsumption MWConsumptionPhilippinesin GW CapacityInstalledThailand in MWIndonesiaElectricityMalaysia Vietnam ingapore 1 Pea 0 Electricity Installed0 in W in W ingapore Installed CapacityInstalled per W in capita Population0. in millionPhilippines 99.88 11,822 CapacityInstalled per W in capita FigureCapacity .77,261Installedper ConsumptionCapacity capita17,944 per capitaper capita in W 0.18 vs. GDP per capita774 1. In0 MW 10,000in GW 20,000Installed0in 30,000 MWIndonesia 10,000Electricity 20,000 40,000Malaysia 30,000 0,000Vietnam 40,000 60,000 ingapore 0,000 60,000 development1 Country objectives.Pea As Demandthe0 Electricity ASEAN Consumption gearsInstalled CapacityThailand in W in W Population0. in millionPhilippines CapacityInstalled per W in capita Thailand 99.88 67.00Installed11,822 26,942CapacityFigureElectricityGDP77,261 Perper Capita1.Consumption168,620 capitaInstalled in SD17,944GDPper PerCapacity 34,668capita Capita in0.18 SD per 0. 2capita774 (in 2, 91 Country Demand InConsumption 0MW 10,000in GW Capacity 20,000in MWIndonesia 30,000 40,000Malaysia Vietnam 0,000 ingapore 60,000 1 Pea 0 ElectricityIndonesiaInstalled 2 2.16 33,321 in221,296 W in 3,066 W 0.21 878 towardsPopulation0. regionalin millionPhilippines integration, CapacityInstalled per W in capita Thailand99.88 it envisions67.0011,822 anCapacity26,942 77,261GDP Perper CapitaConsumption 168,620capita in 17,944 SD KW)per capita34,668 vs. 0.18GDP per0. 2 capita774 2, 91 Country Demand ConsumptionIn0 MW 10,000in GW Capacity 20,000in 30,000MW Malaysia 40,0009,000 0,000Vietnam ingapore 60,000 0 Indonesia Malaysia 30.2633,321 19,84 in221,296 WFigure .128,418Installedin 3,066W Capacity30,87 per capita in W 1.02 vs. GDP per capita4,244
Installed CapacityInstalled per W in capita 2 2.16 0.21 878 0. in millionPhilippines Thailand99.88 67.0011,822 26,94277,261GDP Perper Capita capita168,620 in17,944 SD per capita34,6680.18 0. 2774 2, 91 integrated electricIn0 MW power 10,000in GW industry 20,000 inamong MW 30,000Figure its 40,000 . InstalledVietnam 0,000 8,000Capacity 60,000 ingapore per capita in W vs. GDP per capita 0 Indonesia Malaysia Vietnam 30.2633,32189.7019,84 in 221,296 W 19,772128,418in W 3,066118,94230,87 27,3231.02 0.304,244 1,326 Philippines CapacityInstalled per W in capita Thailand 99.88 67.0011,8222 2.1626,942GDP77,261 Per Capita168,620 in SD17,944 34,6687,0000.18 0. 2 774 0.212, 91 878 0 10,000 20,000 30,000Figure 40,000 . Installed 0,000 Capacity ingapore 60,000 per capita in W vs. GDP per capita Philippines 0 member-countries in termsVietnam of power ingapore demand89.70 and .4719,772 6,8696,000118,942 46,40327,323 12,8630.30 2.3 1,326 8,483 Indonesia Malaysia 30.2633,321 19,84 221,296 128,418 3,066 30,87 1.02 4,244 Electricity Pro le Philippine Philippines CapacityInstalled per W in capita Thailand99.88 67.0011,822 2 2.1626,94277,261GDP Per Capita168,620 in17,944 SD 34,6680.18 9,0000. 2774 0.212, 91 878 0 10,000 20,000 30,000Figure 40,000 . Installed Total 0,000 Capacity non-coincident 60,000 per capita peak ,000 in W vs. GDP per capita Thailand IndonesiaconsumptionMalaysia Vietnamstructures,30.26 ingapore33,321 supply89.7019,84 221,296infrastructures, .4719,772128,418 3,0666,869 118,94230,87 8,00046,40327,3231.02 12,8630.304,244 2.3 1,326 8,483 Thailand 67.00 2 2.1626,942GDP Per Capita168,620 in SD 34,668 0. 2 4,0000.212, 91 878 Indonesia Figure . Installed Total Capacity non9,000-coincident per capita peak in W vs.7,000 GDP per capita Indonesia Malaysia2 2.16Vietnam 30.26 ingapore33,321 89.7019,84 221,296 .4719,772128,418 3,0666,869118,94230,87 0.2146,40327,3233,0001.0287812,8630.304,244 2.3 1,326 8,483 Malaysia energy policy directions and regulations. Philippines 9,000 2. 8,000 6,000 Figure . Installed Total Capacity non-coincident per capita peak in W vs. GDP per2,000 capita Vietnam Malaysia Vietnam30.26 ingapore89.7019,84 .4719,772128,4186,869118,94230,87 46,40327,3231.02 12,863 ,0000.304,244 2.3 1,326 8,483 Thailand 2. 7,000 1,000 9,000 8,000 Consumption per W capita in ingaporeFigure . Installed .47 Total Capacity non-coincident6,869 per capita peak in46,403 W 2 vs. GDP12,863 per capita 4,0002.3 8,483 Indonesia ingapore Vietnam 89.70 19,772 118,942 27,323 0.30 01,326 Philippines 2. 8,000 7,000 6,000 Philippines ingapore .47 Total non9,000-c6,869oincident peak46,4032 12,863 2.3 3,0008,4830 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 0,000 60,000 Malaysia 6,000 1. ,000 2,000 Philippines Thailand 9,000 2. 8,000 7,000 GDP per capita in SD Philippines Thailand Vietnam Total non-coincident peak 2 1,000 PEAK DEMAND,6,000 ELECTRICITY1. ,000 4,000 Consumption W capita in per Philippines Thailand Indonesia ingapore 9,000 2. 8,000 7,000 Philippines Thailand Indonesia 2 1 0Figure . Electricity Consumption per capita in W vs. GDP per capita ,000 4,000 3,000 Philippines Thailand Indonesia Malaysia 2. 8,000 7,000 6,000 1. 0 10,000Philippines 20,000 30,000Thailand 40,000Indonesia 0,000Malaysia 60,000 CONSUMPTION2 AND INSTALLED1 4,000 3,000 0. 2,000 Philippines ThailandGDP per capitaIndonesia in SD Malaysia Vietnam 7,000 6,000 1. ,000 Philippines Thailand Indonesia Malaysia Vietnam 2 2 1 1,000 4,000 3,000 0. 2,000 Consumption per W capita in Philippines Thailand Indonesia Malaysia Vietnam ingapore 3 6,000CAPACITY1. ,000 PhilippinesFigure .ThailandElectricity IndonesiaConsumptionMalaysia per capita inVietnam W vs. GDP ingapore per capita 1 1,000 0 0 Department of Energy (DOE) Consumption per W capita in 4,000 3,000 0. 2,000 CapacityInstalled per W in capita Thailand Indonesia Malaysia Vietnam ingapore 1. ,000 00 10,000 10,000Power 20,000Thailand 20,000Development 30,000Indonesia 30,000Plan 2016 40,000Malaysia2040 40,000 0,000Vietnam 0,000 60,000 ingapore 60,000 1 1,000 0 0 Consumption per W capita in 4,000 3,000 0. 2,000 CapacityInstalled per W in capita FigureIndonesiaGDP Per 2. Capita ElectricityMalaysia in SD Vietnam Consumption ingapore per capita 00 10,000 10,000 20,000 20,000Indonesia 30,000 30,000GDP per 40,000Malaysia capita 40,000 in SDVietnam 0,000 0,000 ingapore 60,000 60,000 3 1 1,000 0 0 Consumption per W capita in 3,000The direct0. 2,000 and positive CapacityInstalled per W in capita relationship between income, GDPDe PerpartmentMalaysia Capita of in Energy SD(inVietnam (DOE) KW) ingaporevs. GDP per capita 00 10,000 10,000 20,000 20,000 30,000 30,000GDP Malaysiaper 40,000 40,000 capita in SD 0,000Vietnam 0,000 ingapore 60,000 60,000 1,000 0 0 Power Development Plan 2016 2040 Consumption per W capita in 0. 2,000 CapacityInstalled per W in capita 3 GDP Per Capita in SDVietnam ingapore as measured by0 GDP0 per 10,000 10,000 capita 20,000 20,000, and electricity 30,000Fi 30,000gureFigureGDP . per 40,000Electricity . 40,000 capitaInstalled in SDVietnam 0,000Consumption 0,000 Capacity 60,000 ingapore 60,000per per capita capita in in W W vs. vs.GDP GDP per per capita capita 1,000 0 0 Consumption per W capita in Installed CapacityInstalled per W in capita GDP Per Capita in SD ingapore 00 10,000 10,000 20,000 20,000 30,000Fi 30,000gureFiGDPgure . per 40,000Electricity .40,000capitaInstalled in SD 0,000 Consumption 0,000 Capacity ingapore 60,000 60,000per per capita capita in in W W vs. vs.GDP GDP per per capita capita 0 0consumption is established for the case of the ASEAN Vietnam with 22% and 28%, respectively. The Installed CapacityInstalled per W in capita 0 10,000 20,000 30,000FigureGDPGDP Per . 40,000per CapitaElectricity capita in in SD SD 0,000 Consumption 60,000 per capita in W vs. GDP per capita countries.0 10,000 In a similar 20,000 manner, 30,000Fi gurethe installed 40,000 . Installed 0,000capacity Capacity 60,000 per capita in W vs. GDP per capita 3 FigureGDPGDP Per . per CapitaElectricity capita in SD in SD Consumption per capita in Philippines, W vs. GDP perhowever, capita has a lower available capacity Figure . InstalledDe Capacitypartment9,000 perof Energy capita (DOE) in W vs. GDP per capita 3 per unit ofFi gurepopulation . Electricity also followsConsumption anPower increasing per Development8,000 capita trend in W Plan 2016vs. GDPover 2040 per installed capita capacity at 28%, thus resulting to a net Figure . InstalledDe Capacitypartment9,000 per of Energy capita (DOE) in W vs. GDP per capita 3 Figure . Electricity ConsumptionPower per Development 8,000capita in7,000 W Plan vs. 2016 GDP 2040 per capita asFi thegure countries’ . Installed Deincome Capacitypartment9,000 increaseper of Energycapita (Figures (DOE) in W vs.1 andGDP 2).per capitasupply margin of 8%. These margins3 are reflective of 6,000 Philippines Department9,000Power of Energy Development8,000 (DOE) 7,000 Plan 2016 2040 ,000 the ASEAN’s need for3 continuous capacityPhilippines additionThailand Power Development8,000 7,000 Plan 20166,000 2040 Department9,000 of Energy (DOE) 3 The Philippines, despite6,000 having ,000a higher4,000 GDP per Philippines Thailand Indonesia Department9,000Power of Energy Development8,000 (DOE) 7,000 Plan 2016 2040 to be able to meet future electricity demand which 4,000 3,000 Philippines Thailand Indonesia Malaysia Power Development8,000capita7,000 Planover 2016 Vietnam,6,000 2040 has ,000 the lowest consumption is projected to grow thrice as much by 20404. 3,000 2,000 Malaysia Vietnam 7,000 6,000 ,000 4,000 Philippines Thailand Indonesia and installed capacity per unit of population1,000 among 2,000 Consumption per W capita in 6,000 ,000 4,000 3,000 Philippines Thailand Indonesia Malaysia Vietnam ingapore 1,000 0 the ASEAN.4,000 3,000Meanwhile,2,000 theConsumption per W capita in highly developed Thailand Indonesia Malaysia Vietnam ingapore ,000 0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 0,000 60,000 1,000 0 4,000 3,000 2,000 Consumption per W capita in Indonesia Malaysia Vietnam ingapore economy of Singapore places itself0 as the 10,000 lead 20,000 30,000GDP per capita 40,000 in SD 0,000 60,000 1,000 0 3,000 2,000 Consumption per W capita in Malaysia Vietnam ingapore 0 10,000 20,000 30,000GDP per 40,000 capitaThe in SD Association 0,000 60,000 of Southeast in terms1,000 of (high)0 income level, consumption 2,000 Consumption per W capita in Vietnam ingapore 0 10,000 20,000Fi 30,000gureGDP . perElectricity 40,000 capita in SD Consumption 0,000Asian 60,000 per capitaNations in W (ASEAN), vs. GDP per capita 1,000 0 Consumption per W capita in and installed capacity per capita despite its ingapore 0 10,000 20,000Fi 30,000gureGDP . perElectricity 40,000capita in SD Consumption 0,000 60,000 per capita in W vs. GDP per capita 0 including the Philippines, limited natural resourcesFi gureandGDP . persmallElectricity capita inland SD Consumption area. per capita in W vs. GDP per capita 0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 0,000 60,000 embarks on enhancing the 3 FigureGDP . perElectricity capita in SD Consumption per capita in W vs. GDP per capita On the other hand, the PhilippinesDepartment has ofhigher Energy (DOE) generation, transmission, 3 Figure . Electricity ConsumptionPower per Development capita in W Plan 2016vs. GDP 2040 per capita supply margin by 34% overDepartment its peak of demandEnergy (DOE) with distribution and supply 3side as Figure . Electricity ConsumptionPower per Development capita in W Plan vs. 2016 GDP 2040 per capita Department of Energy (DOE) part of its national3 priorities. a 6,122 MW differencePower Development based on Planinstalled 2016 2040capacity. Department of Energy (DOE) 3 Power Development Plan 2016 2040 DeThispartment margin of Energy is higher (DOE) compared to Thailand and 3 DepartmentPower of Energy Development (DOE) Plan 2016 2040 Power Development2a.) Analysis Plan are 2016 based 2040 on 2014 figures due to available data, except for Vietnam which is based on 2013 values b.) Electricity Data Sources: Philippine Department of Energy (DOE), Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand (EGAT), Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources/Perusahaan Listrik Negara/ National Electric Company (PLN), Malaysian Energy Information Hub (MEIH)/ Economic Planning Unit, Ministry of Industry and Trade General Directorate of Energy Energy/Electricity Regulatory Authority of Vietnam (ERAV), Energy Market Authority-Singapore (EMA) 3GDP per capita = GDP/Population, data on population sourced from Asian Development Bank (ADB) 4International Energy Agency (IEA), Southeast Asia Energy Outlook 2015
4
in kWh Electricity per capita Consumption Consumption in kW Installed Capacity per capita 6 in MW
Installed Capacity Philippine Electricity Pro le Electricity Philippine POWER RATES POWER In addition, taxes, fees, and other charges are are charges other and fees, taxes, addition, In sectors industry power the on levied also composed of the generation, transmission, a constitute which levels distribution and portion on electricity the Philippines. in rates transparency of having In greater view of this, Philippine power rates across the three sectors sectors three the across rates power Philippine but ASEAN the in highest the among are A major Singapore. of level the with par at absence the is prices higher these for reason of government subsidies.Thailand, Indonesia, and Malaysia arguably subsidies. have in the region aside from its lesser emission by- emission its lesser from aside region the in coal. like fuels fossil-based to relative product a meager constitute sources oil-based contrast, In ASEAN the of mix generation power the in share percent. 10 to 0.3 from ranges only which electricitygenerated energy, renewable of terms In highest the for accounted sources hydro from 12 at renewables other among share average the in availability and its abundance to due percent 45 at RE of share highest the has Vietnam region. sources hydro from coming majority with percent a having Vietnam follows Philippines percent). (41 RE percent 26 share. 6
and and in GWh
Based - power Electricity Imports OtherRE Geo Hydro NatGas Oil Coal 5 Consumption
4 1 9 natural gas, oil, gas, natural ingapore the mostthe diverse
5 ve
Peak Peak in MW ha
d, biomass solar and among 1 0 0 4 41 33 21 ural gas inural gas power generation the Demand* on Mixon Vietnam win followed by
DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY DOE , POWER DEVELOPMENT PLAN DEVELOPMENT POWER DOE , ENERGY OF DEPARTMENT being the major fuel source of power generation of power being the major fuel source of natural gas huge share The the Philippines. for can ASEAN the of mix generation power in the availability and abundance the to be attributed by- emission its lesser from aside region the in coal. like fuels fossil-based to relative product a meager constitute sources oil-based contrast, In ASEAN the of mix generation power the in share percent. 10 to 0.3 from ranges only which 9 4 1 49 37 and Indonesia and 5.47 6,869 46,403 12,863 2.35 8,483 Malaysia 4 99.88 11,822 77,261 17,944 0.18 774 67.00 26,942 168,620 34,668 0.52 2,591 30.26 19,845 128,418 30,875 1.02 4,244 89.70 19,772 118,942 27,323 0.30 1,326 Power Generati 252.16 33,321 221,296 53,066 0.21 878
The hugeThe share nat of 0 7 4 0 3 2 10 , geothermal hydro, Philippines . SE in million Indonesia Population
igure igure majority comingmajority coal, from
F Figure 3. ASEAN-6 Power Generation Mix Generation 3. ASEAN-6 Power Figure 7 3 1 20 6 6 Thailand based sources are sources based A EAN of mi all generation power the present in Table 1. ASEAN-6 Peak Demand, Installed and Electricity Capacity Demand, Consumption Peak 1. ASEAN-6 Table 6 countries, the countries, 6 -
with the with 0 7 0 13 12 43 24 Philippines Country . Figure 3. ASEAN-6 Power Generation Mix Generation 3. ASEAN-6 Power Figure
ng the A EAN Philippines Thailand Indonesia Malaysia Vietnam Singapore 0 Gas Turbine and Combined Cycle are classified under Natural Gas classified are Cycle and Combined Turbine Gas Sources: Thailand: Philippines: Metropolitan Manila Electric September Electricity Company, 2015; Calculator; Tariff Authority, March 2016 NasionalIndonesia: Singapore: Malaysia: Berhad, Tenaga Indonesia GSI January Singapore 1 January Energy Power, 2016 Brief, January 2014, 2015; as Turbine and Combined Cycle are classified under Natural Gas Natural under classified are Cycle Combined and Turbine as 90 80 70 60 0 40 30 20 10 5 6 atural gas and gas atural oil- * Total non-coincident peak Total * POWER GENERATION MIX GENERATION POWER POWER DEVELOPMENT PLAN, 2016 2040 PLAN, DEVELOPMENT POWER Among the ASEAN-6 countries, the Philippines the Philippines Among the ASEAN-6 countries, power Indonesiaand most diverse the have generation mix with the majority coming from and renewable oil, natural gas, by followed coal, wind, geothermal, hydro, (which include energy solar and biomass among others). present are sources oil-based gas and Natural generation mix of all ASEAN countries in the power with varying Natural gas is next coal for to shares. generation of power being the major fuel source of natural gas huge share The the Philippines. for can ASEAN the of generation mix in the power availability and abundance the to beattributed 100 G generation mi generation include (which energy renewable others) N is gas Natural shares. varying with countries thebeing for ne t coal to of source fuel major Philippines. the for generation power Power Generation Mix Amo 5 Gas Turbine and Combined Cycle are classified under Natural Gas are Cycle and Combined Turbine Gas Among the ASEAN-6 countries, the Philippines the Philippines Among the ASEAN-6 countries, power and Indonesia the most diverse have generation mix with the majority coming from and renewable oil, gas, natural by followed coal, wind, geothermal, (which include hydro, energy solar and biomass among others). present are Natural gas and oil-based sources countriesmix of all ASEAN generation in the power with varying Natural gas is next coal for to shares. 5 Power Generation Mix Generation Power
Philippine Electricity Pro le POWER DEVELOPMENT PLAN, 2016 2040
reasonably-priced electricity rates through more In view of the prevailing market structure, unbundling of items in the energy supply chain transforming the electric power industry into a remains part of the major thrusts of the DOE, its fully competitive one by encouraging greater attached agencies, and the Energy Regulatory private sector participation and the establishment Commission. of competitive markets remains a major platform for the ASEAN countries. In anticipation of the Table 2. 2015 ASEAN Electricity Rates, in Peso/kWh rapid increase in electricity demand, efficiency Country Industry Commercial Domestic improvements in the entire network from Philippines 5.84 7.49 8.90 generation, transmission and distribution still Thailand 5.37 5.37 5.52 remains a priority for ASEAN energy agencies. Indonesia 1.66 2.15 1.29 Initiatives for region-wide interconnection thru
Malaysia 4.71 4.97 6.02 Electricity Pro le Philippine Singapore 5.84 7.27 7.27 the ASEAN power Grid that enables cross-border *Note: Rates include GST (Tax) power trading is continuously being discussed, developed and improved. INDUSTRY STRUCTURE, DEVELOPMENT CHALLENGES AND Further, the inherent concerns on power KEY POLICIES security, fuel price availability and volatility and environmental considerations allow the ASEAN Majority of the ASEAN electric power industry is to continually intensify its efforts towards fuel characterized by a vertically-integrated structure mix diversification by reducing dependence on where the ownership, control, and management fossil fuels and expanding the share of renewable of the generation, transmission, and distribution energy sources. Similarly, the ASEAN considers all networks are within the jurisdiction of the state. technologies, including nuclear energy, as a source Although there are several private independent power of power to augment supply especially in the long producers (IPPs), state-owned power generation run and to provide baseload capacities at a more plants continue to dominate the generation sector for competitive cost.
Thailand, Indonesia, Malaysia, and Vietnam. Likewise, Regulatory egulatory Framework Framewor Government wned and Controlled egulatory egulatory Framewor Framewor egulatory egulatory egulatory Framewor Framewor Framewor GovernmentGovernmentGovernmentwit wned wned some Owned and andIPPs Controlled Controlledand egulatory Wholesale Framewor pot Retail Electricity Future the transmission and distribution systems for these Government wned and Controlled Wholesale Spot Retail Electricity Future GovernmentGovernmentControlled Generation,wit wnedwit some wned with ransmissionsome and IPPssome and IPPsControlled Controlled IPPs and WholesaleWholesaleMarket pot pot CompetitionRetailRetail ElectricityElectricityMarket Future Future Governmentwit wnedsome IPPs and Controlled WholesaleMarket pot CompetitionRetail ElectricityMarket Future Generation,(Generation, Generation,wit wit Distribution some ransmission some ransmission Transmission IPPs IPPs and and WholesaleWholesaleMarketMarket pot pot CompetitionRetailCompetitionRetail ElectricityElectricityMarketMarket Future Future Generation,wit ransmission some IPPs and WholesaleMarket pot RetailCompetition Electricity FutureMarket Generation, Generation,andDistribution Distribution Distribution) ransmission ransmission and and MarketMarket CompetitionCompetition MarketMarket countries, being natural monopolies, remain to be Generation,Distribution ransmission and Market Competition Market Distribution Distribution Distribution owned and operated by the state.
On the other hand, only Philippines and Singapore have a horizontally integrated power industry with the unbundling of the generation, transmission, and distribution systems in the 1990s. Moreover, only the Philippines and Singapore established its wholesale electricity market and are gearing towards retail and
electricity future markets in pursuit of attaining full Increasingly Competitive Electric Power Industry IncreasinglyIncreasingly Competitive Competitive Electric Electric Power Power Industry Industry Increasingly Competitive Electric Power Industry IncreasinglyIncreasingly Competitive Competitive Electric Electric Power Power Industry Industry IncreasinglyFigureIncreasingly . CompetitiveElectric C Powerompetitive Electric Industry Electric Power Structure, Power Industry Industry SE competition in the power industry. Vietnam is also FigureFigure . Electric. Electric Power Power Industry Industry Structure, Structure, SE SE Figure . Electric Power Industry Structure, SE heading towards a more competitive environment Figure 4.FigureFigure FigureElectric . .Electric Electric. Electric Power Power Power Industry Industry Industry Structure, IndustryStructure, Structure, SE SE SE Structure, Industry Structure, Development Challenges and Key Policies Industry Structure, Development Challenges7 and Key Policies as it develops its wholesale electricity market. IndustryIndustry Structure, Structure, Development DevelopmentASEAN-6 Challenges Challenges and and Key Key Policies Policies IndustryMIndustryIndustryajority Structure, of Structure, Structure,the A EAN Development Development Development electric power ChallengesChallenges industry Challenges isand andcharacterized Keyand Key Policies Key Policies Policies by a vertically-integrated MstructureajorityMajority of ofwherethe the A EAN the A EAN ownership, electric electric power controlpower industry ,industryand management is ischaracterized characterized of the by bygeneration,a avertically vertically transmission-integrated-integrated , Majorityajority ofof thethe A EAN A EAN electric electric powerpower industryindustry is is characterizedcharacterized by by aa verticallyvertically--integratedintegrated structureandstructureMajority distribution where of ofwhere thethe the A EAN networks A EANthe ownership, ownership, electric electric are powerwithincontrol controlpower industrythe, and , industryjurisdictionand management is management characterized is characterized of the of state. of bythe thea generation, verticallyAlthough bygeneration, a vertically-integrated there transmission transmission -areintegrated several, , 7 structurestructure wherewhere thethe ownership,ownership, controlcontrol,, andand managementmanagement ofof thethe generation,generation, transmission transmission,, Adopted from Somani 2015 published under KPMG Report entitled “Overviewand privatestructureandstructureof distribution thedistributionindependent wherePowerwhere networks the networksthe Sectorownership, ownership, power are are withinin controlwithinproducers the control the, theSEAand jurisdiction, jurisdiction andmanagement (Region”IPPs management), ofstate ofthe of sourcedthe- ownedthestate. state. ofgeneration, the Although powerAlthough generation,from transmission theregeneration IMF there transmissionare World are ,several severalplants , andand distributiondistribution networksnetworks areare withinwithin thethe jurisdictionjurisdiction ofof thethe state.state. AlthoughAlthough therethere areare severalseveral Economic Outlook 2014 privatecontinueprivateandand distributionindependentindependent to dominate networks networks power thepower are generationare withinproducers withinproducers the thejurisdictionsector (jurisdiction IPPs( IPPsfor), Thailand,of),state thestate of state.-owned the-owned Indonesia, state.Although power powerAlthough there Malaysia generation generationare there several, and are Vietnam.plants severalplants privateprivate independentindependent powerpower producersproducers ((IPPsIPPs)),, statestate--ownedowned powerpower generationgeneration plantsplants continueLikewise,privatecontinueprivate toindependentindependent todominatethe dominate transmission thepower thepower generation generation producersand producers distribution sector sector(IPPs for()IPPs ,for Thailand,statesystem )Thailand,, -stateowneds Indonesia,for-owned Indonesia, powerthese power generation Malaysiacountries Malaysia generation,, and ,plantsbeingand Vietnam. Vietnam. naturalplants continuecontinue to to dominatedominate thethe generationgeneration sectorsector forfor Thailand,Thailand, Indonesia,Indonesia, Malaysia Malaysia,,andand Vietnam.Vietnam. Likewise,monopolies,Likewise,continuecontinue the to tothe dominate dominateremaintransmission transmission tothe the be generation ownedgenerationand and distribution and distributionsector operatesector for Thailand, forsystem dsystem by Thailand, thes Indonesia, sforstate. for Indonesia,these these Malaysia countries countries Malaysia, and, Vietnam.being, ,beingand naturalVietnam.natural Likewise,Likewise, thethe transmissiontransmission andand distributiondistribution systemsystemss forfor thesethese countriescountries,, beingbeing naturalnatural monopolies,monopolies,Likewise,Likewise, thetheremain remain transmissiontransmission to tobe beowned ownedand and distributionand anddistribution operate operate systemd by dsystem by thes thefor state. s state.these for thesecountries countries, being ,natural being natural6 monopolies, remain to be owned and operated by the state. monopolies,monopolies,monopolies,remainremainremain to to be to be ownedbeownedowned and and operate operatedd by by dthe theby state. the state. state.
7 Adopted from omani 201 published under KPMG Report entitled Overview of the Power ector in the EA 7 Region 7 Adopted sourced from omani from IMF 201 World published Economic under Outlook KPMG 2014 Report entitled Overview of the Power ector in the EA 7 Adopted from omani 201 published under KPMG Report entitled Overview of the Power ector in the EA 7 Adopted7 from omani 201 published under KPMG Report entitled Overview of the Power ector in the EA AdoptedRegion 7 from sourced omani from 201 IMF published World Economic under KPMG Outlook Report 2014 entitled Overview of the Power ector in the EA Region AAdopted sourced fromfrom from omani omani IMF 201 201 World published published Economic under under Outlook KPMG KPMG Report 2014 Report entitled entitled Overview Overview of the Power of the ector Power in the ector EA in the EA Region Region sourcedsourced fromfrom IMFIMF WorldWorld EconomicEconomic OutlookOutlook 20142014 Region Region sourcedsourced from from IMF IMF World World Economic Economic Outlook Outlook 2014 2014
6 6 6 6 66 6 52MW Trans-Asia Diesel Power Plant - Trans-Asia Power Generation Corp. Generation Power Trans-Asia - Plant Diesel Power Trans-Asia 52MW Corp. Power Tarlac - Plant Diesel Power Tarlac 18.6MW Corp. - Mapalad Power Plant 103MW MPC Iligan Diesel Power T-D: T-D: Five Year Performance Assessment, 2011-2015 POWER DEVELOPMENT PLAN, 2016 2040
DEMAND Sectoral Growth Rate
Electricity Sales and Consumption Positive growth rates of electricity sales and consumption were observed from 2011 to 2015. Despite the country’s increased exposure to global The aggressive performance of the residential risks and uncertainties including the detrimental sector resulted to 5.06 percent annual average impacts of natural calamities such as major growth rate. This growth level overtook the typhoons, namely Sendong (2011), Pablo (2012), industrial and commercial sectors at 3.88 and and Yolanda (2013), Bohol Earthquake (2013), 4.87 percent, respectively. The increasing access and El Niño Phenomenon (2015-2016), electricity to electricity of the population and the rising consumption grew by 19.14 percent from 69,176 real income per capita8 over the years which GWh in 2011 to 82,413 GWh in 2015 or an annual raised the capacities of households to buy basic average growth rate of 4.49 percent. commodities including electricity, led to the
increase in consumption on the residential level. 2011-2015 Assessment, Performance Year Five The increase is attributed to the impressive performance of the economy from 2010 to 2015 Despite the country’s driven by the robust growth of the services, increased exposure to global industrial and agriculture sectors, among others. risks and uncertainties, Similarly, improvements in the supply side, electricity consumption grew specifically in the entry of power generation plants by 19.14 percent from 69,176 which augmented the total installed capacity of GWh in 2011 to 82,413 GWh in 2015 or an annual average the country, is strongly linked with this demand- growth rate of 4.49 percent. side expansion.
Sectoral Share Rising income levels in the country were driven by the remittances from OFWs, growth of household-based MSMEs (Micro, Small, and The share of each of the sectors comprising the Medium Enterprises) and higher employment total electricity consumption remained stable rates9 along with the government’s poverty during the five-year period. The electricity- reduction programs and policies among others. intensive industrial sector and the residential sector’s share to total electricity consumption Moreover, the Philippines’ Free Trade Agreements remained the largest with an average share (FTAs) and economic partnerships with the ASEAN of 27 percent. Meanwhile, the “others” sector and other non-ASEAN countries which reduced which include public buildings, street lights, import taxes and tariff restrictions10 contributed irrigation and others which are not elsewhere to the domestic penetration and availability classified constitute the smallest share at 2.56 of low-cost and high-powered technology percent. The share of “own-use” consumption gadgets, appliances and the like that further of power plants and distribution utilities and boosted electricity sales and consumption at the the power losses are maintained at an average household level. share of 8 and 10 percent, respectively.
8BSP 9BSP 10Department of Trade and Industry. Other Trade Agreements include ASEAN-Australia-New Zealand Free Trade Agreement (AANZFTA), ASEAN-China Free Trade Agreement (ACFTA), ASEAN-India Free Trade Agreement (AIFTA) ASEAN-Japan Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (AJCEPA) and ASEAN-Korea Free Trade Agreement (AKFTA)
8 POWER DEVELOPMENT PLAN, 2016 2040
Five Year Performance Assessment, 2011-2015 Table 3. Electricity Sales and Consumption by Sector, 2011-2015 (in GWh)
2011 2015 2011-2015 Sector Average GWh % Share GWh % Share Di erence Share AAGR Residential 18,694 27.02 22,747 27.60 4,053 27.23 5.06 Commercial 16,624 24.03 20,085 24.37 3,461 24.28 4.86 Industrial 19,334 27.95 22,514 27.32 3,180 27.60 3.88 Others 1,446 2.09 2,462 2.99 1,016 2.56 14.26 Total Sales 56,098 81.09 67,808 82.28 11,710 81.67 4.87 Utilities Own Use 5,398 7.80 7,124 8.64 1,726 8.06 7.30 Power Losses 7,680 11.10 7,481 9.08 (199) 10.27 (0.43) Total Consumption 69,176 100.00 82,413 100.00 13,237 100.00 4.49
On the other hand, the industry sector’s farm mechanization and adoption of modern electricity sales growth was elevated by the technologies in the agriculture and fisheries strong performance of both the domestic and sector also contributed to the growth of electricity export manufacturing of electronic, automotive, sales for the “others” sector. metal, pharmaceutical, paper, plastic, textile and food products.11 Likewise, the increase in private Meanwhile, the annual average growth rate of and public construction and mining activities power generation and utilities’ “own use” at 7.30 contributed to the growth of the industrial percent can be attributed to the massive entry of sector from 2011 to 2015.12 private power generation plants over the years, backed by the intensified efforts and policies of The growth of the commercial sector is attributed the government towards the improvement of to the robust performance of the services sector the country’s investment climate. which has evolved to be the major contributor to the country’s economic growth. The commercial Significantly, power losses recorded a negative and services sectors include transport and annual average growth rate at 0.43 percent communication, real estate (condominiums, from 2011-2015. Annually, power losses posted shopping malls, casinos, hotel, resort and negative growth rates, due to the improved restaurants) and business activities (BPOs, performance of the generation, transmission and financial intermediary, trading), among others. distribution systems, except in 2012 and 2015. This was accomplished due to the continued and Despite having the smallest share to total collaborative efforts of government and the private electricity consumption, the “others” sector sector to enhance the efficiency of the network. posted the highest five-year annual average growth rate at 14.26 percent. This growth was Electricity Sales and Consumption by Grid largely propelled by the increase in government spending especially in 2015 for the provision of On a per grid basis, Luzon, the country’s center goods and services to stimulate the country’s for commerce, business activities and major economic growth. In addition, the increase in economic developments, sustained its major share
11Foreign Trade Statistics, PSA 12NEDA
9 POWER DEVELOPMENT PLAN, 2016 2040
to total consumption at 73.99 percent, followed by 49.80 percent brought about by the entry of Visayas and Mindanao at 13.60 and 12.42 percent, power generation plants in 2010, contributed respectively. The annual average growth rate of to the growth of electricity consumption in sales and consumption from 2011-2015 for the the Visayas. Own-use consumption levels had three Grids moved at the same pace at 4 to 5 normalized on the succeeding years except percent range. in 2013 where a negative growth rate of 3.40 percent was recorded as an aftermath of Despite the catastrophic damage brought by the Typhoon Yolanda. However, this growth rate of Bohol earthquake and Super Typhoon Yolanda in own-use consumption was the lowest among 2013, Visayas’ electricity consumption managed the three Grids. to grow at 4.19 percent fueled by the growth of electricity sales from the industry sector in Mindanao’s electricity consumption was the region, particularly manufacturing, mining propelled by the growth of the residential and
and quarrying and construction sub-sectors. industrial sectors. Increasing level of income, 2011-2015 Assessment, Performance Year Five The offshoot of tourism and wholesale and retail as measured by GRDP per capita, observed trading brought by the growth of shopping in Mindanao from 2011 to 201514 uplifted the malls, commercial centers, convenience stores electricity consumption on the household and fast food chains also contributed to the level. Furthermore, the increasing number of growth of electricity sales. Massive increase in agri-economic and agri-industrial zones also public infrastructure such as national highways spurred the electricity consumption in the and airports, among others, along with the region. The average annual growth rate of own- strengthening of the agriculture sector, further use consumption at 8.27 percent which resulted boosted the economic activities in the Visayas.13 from the entry of large power plants in Mindanao Aside from rising electricity sales, the spike in was the highest among the three Grids. own-use consumption growth rate in 2011 at
Table 4. Electricity Sales and Consumption by Grid, 2011-2015 (in GWh)
Luzon 2011 2015 2011-2015 Average GWh % Share GWh % Share AAGR Share Sales 41,706 74.35 50,589 74.61 4.96 74.47 Consumption 50,965 73.67 61,099 74.14 4.65 73.99 Visayas 2011 2015 2011-2015 Average GWh % Share GWh % Share AAGR Share Sales 7,224 12.88 8,765 12.93 4.99 12.84 Consumption 9,508 13.75 11,184 13.57 4.19 13.60 Mindanao 2011 2015 2011-2015 Average GWh % Share GWh % Share AAGR Share Sales 7,167 12.78 8,453 12.47 4.22 12.69 Consumption 8,703 12.58 10,130 12.29 3.89 12.42 Total Sales 56,098 100.00 67,808 100.00 4.87 100.00 Total Consumption 69,176 100.00 82,413 100.00 4.49 100.00
13NEDA, Western Visayas Regional Development Plan 2011-2016 14NSCB
10 POWER DEVELOPMENT PLAN, 2016 2040
Five Year Performance Assessment, 2011-2015 Peak Demand brought by Typhoon Yolanda in November 2013 that resulted to physical damage to power The annual average growth rates of peak demand generation plants as well as the transmission and for Luzon and Visayas are in the 4 percent level distribution networks. while Mindanao moved at the slowest pace at only 3 percent. Despite having supply shortfalls, Mindanao’s annual average peak demand growth rate managed to Due to its already matured and highly industrialized grow at 3.10 percent. In contrast with Luzon, peak economy, Luzon’s peak demand has been demand in Mindanao occurred during the rainy recorded the highest for the whole country from season from November to December where the 2011-2014. Peak demand for Luzon occurred during hydroelectric power plants were operating at full the summer months of April, May and June and is capacity due to the abundance of water supply. triggered by the increase in the usage of cooling and air-conditioning units due to high temperature. SUPPLY
Visayas peak demand was uplifted by the increase Capacity in supply starting in 2010 brought by the entry of 10,000 new power plants which provided a leeway for Increasing installed capacity15 is a good economic the9,000 increase in electricity demand in the region. reference that the power sector is improving and 10,000 AAGR=4.28% 8,928 8,000 8,717 adapting to the growing demand of the country. 8,305 9,000 7,889 In the past five years, the country’s total installed AAGR=4.28% 7,000 7,552 8,928 8,000 8,717 capacity grew by 16.10 percent from 16,162 8,305 6,000 7,889 MW in 2011 to 18,765 MW in 2015 or an annual
MW) 7,000 7,552 average growth rate of 3.81 percent. This huge 5,000
emand ( 6,000 D
MW) growth is associated to the increased installation
Peak 4,000 5,000 of large coal-fired power plants, such as 651 MW emand (
3,000 GNPower Mariveles, 140 MW Petron Refinery Solid
Peak D 4,000 AAGR=4.56% 1,768 1,636 Fuel-Fired Boiler (RSFFB), 200 MW KEPCO-Salcon 1,481 1,551 1,572 2,000 3,000 AAGR=4.56% Power Corporation (KSPC), 246 MW Cebu Energy 1,768 1,551 1,572 1,636 1,000 2,000 1,481 1,428 1,469 1,517 Development Corporation (CEDC) and 164 MW 1,346 1,321 AAGR=3.10%
0 1,000 Panay Energy Development Corporation (PEDC), 1,428 1,469 1,517 1,346 1,321 2011 2012 2013 2014 AAGR=3.102015% as baseload capacities are much needed in Luzon 0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 and Visayas for stable and reliable power supply. In Year
Luzon Visayas Mindanao 2015, coal plants were about 5,963 MW compared
Figure 5. Peak Demand, 2011-2015 (in MW) to 4,917 MW in 2011. Figure 5. Peak Demand,Luzon Visayas 2011-2015Mindanao (in MW) Figure 5. Peak Demand, 2011-2015 (in MW) 13 DepartmentMoreover, of Energy (DOE) the increase in industrial and commercial Moreover, the installed capacity of Renewable Power Development Plan 2016 – 2040 13 Department of Energy (DOE) activitiesPower Development and Plan 2016socio-economic– 2040 developments in Energy (RE), both the conventional type such the Visayas from 2011-2015 also contributed to as geothermal, hydroelectric and biomass, and its consistently rising peak demand despite the the variable RE such as solar and wind grew catastrophic damage and economic disruption significantly at the end of 2015. This is due to the
15Installed Capacity – The full-load continuous gross capacity of a unit under the specified conditions, as calculated from the electric generator nameplate based on the rated power factor (source: IEEE Standard 762-2006)
11 DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY DOE , POWER DEVELOPMENT PLAN
POWER DEVELOPMENT PLAN, 2016 2040
2011-2015 Assessment, Performance Year Five NS NS NS NS NS B B B B B N B N B N B N B N B
Geothermal Coal Biomass Natural Gas Hydro Oil-based Wind Solar
Figure 6. PhilippinesFigure . Installed, P ilippine Dependables Installed, Dependableand Availableand Capacity vailable by PlantCapacity Type, by 2011-2015 Plant ype (in, MW) in MW Five Year Performance Assessment, 2011-2015 Assessment, Performance Year Five continuousFigure promotion 6. Philippines and Installed, encouragement Dependable of the and Available12,179 Capacity MW by in Plant2015, Type, associated 2011-2015 with (in 16.4 MW) percent DOE to RE developers through fiscal and non- and 12.51 percent growth from 2011-2015. LUZON fiscal incentives,In Luzon, total such installed as the capacityFeed-In roseTariff to (FIT) 13,668 MWAbout while total25 percent dependable of this capacity increase grew came to from 12,179 MW in 201 , associated with 16.4 percent and 12. 1 percent growth from 2011- and InMust/Priority Luzon, total installed Dispatch capacity System. rose Fromto 13,668 5,282 MW 20the MW operation Maibarara ofgeothermal the new largeplant coalin Batangas, plants. The 201 . About 2 percent of this increase came from the operation of the new large coal while total dependable capacity grew to 12,179 recommissioning of 130 MW Bacman geothermal MW inplants 2011,. TheRE installedrecommissioning capacity ofincreased 242 MW inTherma Mobilerecommissioning Power Barges of (Former 242 MW Duracom) Therma inMobile MW in 2015, associated with 16.4 percent and plant in Sorsogon and uprating of 132 MW Binga Navotas and the 116 MW ubic Diesel fuel-fired Power Plant were also added to the total 201512.51 at about percent 6,221 growth MW. from 2011-2015. About 25 HydroelectricPower Barges plant (Formeralso increased Duracom) the capacity in Navotas of capacity of Luzon. Recently, Hopewell Gas Turbine was turned over to Millennium Energy, percent of this increase came from the operation geothermaland the 116and MWhydro Subic plants Diesel from 2011-2015. fuel-fired Power Inc. (MEI) and the successful recommissioning of the 100 MW Gas turbine in Navotas in May of the new large coal plants. The recommissioning Following201 commenced.this trend, theThe commercialtotal dependable operation of thePlant20 MWwere Maibarara also added geothermal to the total plant capacity in of 242 MW Therma Mobile Power Barges (Former The growth rate of new RE plants remained capacityBatangas,16 also recommissioninggrew by 13.50 ofpercent 130 MW from Bacman geothermalof Luzon. plant Recently, in orsogon Hopewelland upratingGas Turbine Duracom) in Navotas and the 116 MW Subic Diesel stagnant up to 2013 until new wind farms were of 132 MW Binga Hydroelectric plant also increased the capacity of geothermal and hydro 14,477fuel-fired MW in 2011Power to Plant 15,620 were in 2015also addedor an annual to the addedwas toturned the existing over 33to MWMillennium Bangui Wind Energy, Farm. Inc. plants from 2011-201 averagetotal growthcapacity rateof Luzon. of 3.23 Recently, percent. Hopewell However, Gas These(MEI) included and the the successful 18.9 MW Bangui recommissioning Phase 3 wind of Turbine was turned over to Millennium Energy, farm, 150 MW EDC Burgos Wind, 81 MW NLREC the average available capacity17 moved at a the 100 MW Gas turbine in Navotas in May Inc.The (MEI) growth and therate successful of new RErecommissioning plants remained of stagnantCaparispisan up to 2013 which until are newlocated wind in farmsIlocos Region,were fasterthe addedpace 100 MW atto 14the Gas percente isting turbine 33infrom Navotas MW 12,070 Bangui in May MW Wind 2015 in Farm. andThese2015 the include commenced.54 MW dPililiathe Wind18.9 The in MW commercial Rizal. Bangui Phase operation 3 wind farm, 1 0 MW EDC Burgos Wind, 81 MW NLREC Caparispisan which are located in 2011commenced. to 13,778 MW The in commercial2015 or an annual operation average of the of the 20 MW Maibarara geothermal plant Ilocos Region, and the 4 MW Pililia Wind in Rizal. growth rate at 9 percent. The average available in Batangas, recommissioning of 130 MW capacity is based on the actual daily operations Bacman geothermal plant in Sorsogon and 16 of power plants. It excluded planned and forced uprating of 132 MW Binga Hydroelectric1 plant outagesDepar as welltment as of major Energy grid (DOE) disturbances such also increased the capacity of geothermal and Power Development Plan 2016 – 2040 as typhoon and system-wide blackouts which hydro plants from 2011-2015. resulted to zero capacities. The growth rate of new RE plants remained Luzon stagnant up to 2013 until new wind farms were added to the existing 33 MW Bangui Wind In Luzon, total installed capacity rose to 13,668 Farm. These included the 18.9 MW Bangui MW while total dependable capacity grew to Phase 3 wind farm, 150 MW EDC Burgos Wind,
16Dependable Capacity – The maximum capacity when modified for ambient limitation for a specified period of time, such as a month or a season. (source: IEEE 762-2006) 17Available Capacity – The dependable capacity, modified for equipment limitation at anytime. (source: IEEE 762-2006)
12 POWER DEVELOPMENT PLAN, 2016 2040
DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY DOE , POWER DEVELOPMENT PLAN
Five Year Performance Assessment, 2011-2015 Five Year Performance Assessment, 2011-2015
NS NS NS NS NS B B B B B N B N B N B N B N B Geothermal Coal Biomass Natural Gas Hydro Oil-based Wind Solar Figure 7. Luzon Installed, Dependable and Available Capacity by Plant Type, 2011-2015 (in MW) Figure 7. Luzon Installed, Dependable and Available Capacity by Plant Type, 2011-2015 (in MW) Figure . u on Installed, Dependable and vailable Capacity by Plant ype, in MW TableTable 5.5. Luzon Additional Additional Capacities, Capacities, 2011-2015 2011-2015 (in MW) (in MW)
able . u on dditional Capacities, in MW Installed2010 Installed P Plant PEType Installed 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 P PE CapacityCapacity (MW) Capacity MW Coal MW 3,849 0 0 651.6 SLTEC0 Puting 141 LTEC Puting GN Power Bato Coal U1 Bato Coal U1 Oil Based 1,984 116 MarivelesMariveles0 242 12.7(135 MW) 100 Coal 3,849 (13 MW) (6 1.6(651.6 MW) Sinoma WHR Natural Gas 2,861 0 0 0 inoma0 (6 MW) WHR 0 (6 MW) Millenium Gas Geothermal 899 0 TMOTMO0 Power 0 20Millenium 0 (100 MW) ubicSubic DPP * BargesBarges 3, 3, 4, 4, , La Farge DPP Gas (100 MW) Oil Based1,984 Hydro 2,346(116(116 MW) 105 0 5,6 6 (12.70(12.7 MW) 0 13.2 (242(242 MW) NaturalWind Gas 2,861 33 0 0 0 249.9 54 Natural Gas 2,861 Maibarara GeothermalBiomass 844 9 4.2 10.2 0GPP 12 31 Maibarara GPP Geothermal 844 (20MW) Solar 0 0Linao- 0 0(20MW) 0 abangan 70 Ambuklao Sabangan CawayanLinao- HEPP Hydro 2,346 HEPP HEPP Total 11,981 225.2Cawayan(Lower 10.2 893.6 294.6(13.2 MW) 409.2 (10 Ambuklao MW) (13.2 MW) Cascade)(Lower *Note:Hydro There were power generating2,346 units that becameHEPP non-operational* over the five-year period. Cascade) (105 MW) 16 HEPP Department of Energy (DOE) (2.10 MW) 81 MWPower NLREC Development Caparispisan Plan 2016 which– 204 are0 located In the past five years, most of the additional in Ilocos Region, and the 54 MW Pililia Wind in capacities are coal power plants that went online Rizal.17 on 2011 and 2015. These are the 82 MW CEDC U3, 82 MW PEDC U2, 103 MW KSPC U2, and Visayas 83 MW TPC Expansion. In addition, renewable energy plants were also added into the grid such In 2015, Visayas has a total installed capacity as the 15 MW CASA Bagasse-Fired Cogeneration of 2,683 MW and total dependable capacity that started exporting into the grid last March of 2,228 MW. In terms of installed capacity, the 2011, the 22 MW SACASOL I - A & B solar farm region’s primary energy source is geothermal that started its commercial operation on May having 36.0 percent share followed by coal and and August 2014 respectively, the 49.8 MW oil based plants at 29.0 and 25.0 percent share, Nasulo GPP that went online on September respectively. 2014, and the 54 MW TAREC wind farm that
13 DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY DOE , POWER DEVELOPMENT PLAN
VISAYAS
DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY DOE , POWER DEVELOPMENT PLAN
VISAYAS
POWER DEVELOPMENT PLAN, 2016 2040
NS NS NS NS NS B B B B B NS NS NS NS NS B B B B B N B N B N B N B N B N B N B N B N B N B Geothermal Coal Biomass Natural Gas Hydro Oil-based Wind Solar Geothermal Coal Biomass Natural Gas Hydro Oil-based Wind Solar Figure 8. Visayas Installed, Dependable and Available Capacity by Plant Type, 2011-2015 (in MW)
Figure . isayas Installed, Dependable and vailable Capacity by Plant ype, 2011-2015 Assessment, Performance Year Five Figure . isayas Installed, Dependable and in GW vailable Capacity by Plant ype, in GW Figure 8.Table Visayas 6. Installed,Visayas Additional Dependable Capacities, and Available 2011-2015 Capacity by (in Plant MW) Type, Figure 8. able Visayas . isayasInstalled, dditional Dependable2011-2015Capacities and (in MW) Available, Capacity in by MW Plant Type, able . isayas dditional2011-2015Capacities (in MW), in MW 2010Installed Installed PlantP Type PE 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 CapacityCapacity (MW) Installed P PE MW Coal Capacity 542PEDC 264 0 0 0 0 MW (82 MW) Oil Based 615 PEDC 0 0 0 0 82 CEDC Coal 42 (82 MW) Natural Gas 0 (82 MW) 0 1 0 0 0 CEDC GeothermalCoal 42 964 K PC 0 0 0 50 0 (100(82 MW) MW) Hydro 13 0 0 0 0 Toledo Power0 Oil Based 61 K PC Corporation Wind 0 (100 MW) 0 0 0 0(82 MW) 36 Desco Toledo Power SolarNatural Gas 0 0 Natural Gas 0 0 22 46 Oil Based 61 Corporation (1MW) Biomass 30 0 0 0 Nasulo GPP 0(82 MW) 52 Geothermal 964 Desco ( 0MW) NaturalTotalHydro Gas 13 2,164 264 Natural Gas 1 0 72 216 *Note: ThereWind were power generating units that became non-operational over(1MW) the five-year period. Petrowind Nasulo GPP 19 GeothermalDepartment of Energy964 (DOE) started its operation last December 2014. ( 0MW) HydroPower Development13 Plan 2016 – 2040 still on shutdown and was recently privatized AddingWind to the list of renewable energy plants are by PSALM. The Cebu Land-BasedPetrowind GT owned the 30 MW SOLEQ and 23 MW SACASOL I – C & by SPC Island Power Corporation and19 located Department of Energy (DOE) D solarPower farms, Development the 36 MW Plan Nabas 2016 wind– 204 0farm, the within the Naga complex is also on economic 46 MW URC, the 8 MW HPCo, and the 3 MW VMC shutdown and under preservation since 2011. Biomass Cogeneration plants. Mindanao It can also be noted that there are power plants in the Visayas grid that have been For Mindanao, the total installed capacity in decommissioned. These are the 106.8 MW 2015 is at 2,414 MW while the total dependable Cebu TPP 1 and 2, the 1.08 MW Ton-ok and capacity is at 2,025 MW with corresponding the 0.81 NW Hinabian HEPPs, and the 49 MW growth rates from 2011 to 2015 at 4.57% percent Northern Negros GPP. The Power Barge 103 is and 5.87% percent, respectively. Power supply in
14 MINDANAO
POWER DEVELOPMENT PLAN, 2016 2040
Five Year Performance Assessment, 2011-2015 Mindanao is still highly dependent on the hydro MW for 2012, 37.6 MW for 2013, 92.9 MW for 2014 resources of the Agus and Pulangi Hydro Power and 34.6 MW for 2015. There are also run-off river Plants. The recommissioning of the former Iligan type hydropower plants which are embedded to Diesel Power Plant with an installed capacity the DUs such as 9.2 MW Cabulig HEP and 2 units at 103 MW by the Mapalad Power Corporation from Tudaya HEP which have a total of 13.6 MW formed a significant role in securing the supply of installed capacity. These embedded power of Mindanao for 2013. For the last quarter of 2015, plants are important to the DUs especially during the power supply in Mindanao also improved peak hours as these generators fill the deficiency due to the commissioning of the Therma South in supply. Coal Unit 1. Lastly, there are two (2) solar power plants that haveLastly, been there commissioned are two (2) insolar Mindanao power forplants that In addition,the year the201 increase. These arein thecapacity 6.2 MW for Centralla the olarhave and 12. been MW commissioned Kirahon olar. in Mindanao for the Mindanao Grid is attributed to the influx of year 2015. These are the 6.2 MW Centralla Solar
embedded diesel power plants with a total of 30.7 and 12.5 MW Kirahon Solar.
NS NS NS NS NS B B B B B NS NS NS NS NS B B B B B N B N B N B N B N B N B N B N B N B N B Geothermal Coal Biomass Natural Gas Hydro Oil-based Wind olar Geothermal Coal Biomass Natural Gas Hydro Oil-based Wind olar Figure 9. Mindanao Installed, Dependable and Available Capacity by Plant Type, 2011-2015 (in MW) Figure . Mindanao Installed, Dependable and vailable Capacity by Plant ype, Table 7. Mindanao Additional Capacities, in GW 2011-2015 (in MW)
Figure 9. Mindanao Installed Installed, Dependable and Available Capacity by Plant Type, 2011-2015 (in GW) PlantFigure ype 9. Mindanao Installed, Dependable and Available Capacity by Plant Type, 2011-2015 (in GW) Capacity MW able . Mindanao dditional Capacities, in MW Coal 232 0 0 0 0 150 Installed OilP Based PE 594 0 30.7 140.6 92.9 34.6 Capacity Natural Gas MW 0 0 0 0 0 0 Therma Geothermal 103 0 0 0 0 Therma 0 outh Unit 1 HydroCoal 232 1,041 0 9.2 0 13.6 (1 0 MW) 0 Wind 0 0 0 0 0 0
Biomass 0 0 35.9KEGI Misamis 0 O Energy 0 PEAK POWER 0 Oriental (19 MW) OC ARGEN Solar 1 0 0 Oriental 0 (19 MW) 0 OC ARGEN 18.7 Minergy (10.6 MW) (20.9 MW) Total 1,971 0(27. MW) 75.8 140.6MPC Digos 106.5 203.3 MPC (1 MW) PEAK POWER *Note:Oil There Based were power generating 94 units that became non-operational over the five-year period. KEGI Koronadal A ELCO 15 Bukidnon (12MW) KEGI Panaon ( .9 MW) (3.2 MW) (1 MW) EEI Power King Energy - (1 MW) KEGI Tandag Maramag 21 Department of Energy (DOE) Power Development Plan 2016 – 2040 Generation Generation Generation GenerationAs newGeneration generating capacities were added to the e isting supply, generation or production of GenerationAs new generating capacities were addedelectricity to the alsoe isting grew supply, in the generation past five or years production which ofmanifested the improvements in the electricity also grew in the past five years which manifested the improvements in the generation sector of the Philippine PowerGeneration Industry.As new generating Generation capacities in 2011POWER DEVELOPMENT atwere 69,1 added76 PLAN, GWh 2016 2040to therose e isting supply, generation or production of GenerationAsGeneration new generating capacities were added to the e isting supply, generation or production of generation sector of the Philippine Powerup to Industry. 82,413 GWh Generation after five in years 2011 withat 69,1 substantial76ele GWhctricity rose19.14 also percent grew ingrowth, the past as shown five years in Figure which manifested the improvements in the electricity also grew in the past five years which manifested the improvements in the up to 82,413 GWh after five years with10. substantial 19.14 percent growth, as showngeneration in Figure sector of the Philippine Power Industry. Generation in 2011 at 69,176 GWh rose GenerationgenerationAs new generating capacities sector were addedof theto the e istingPhilippine supply, generation Power or production Industry. of Generation in 2011 at 69,176 GWh rose 10. Generation up to 82,413are GWh from afterthis grid. five Starting years with2011, substantialLuzon has 19.14 percent growth, as shown in Figure upelectricity to 82,413also grew in theGWh past five after years which five manifested years the with improvements substantial in the 19.14 percent growth, as shown in Figure 10. generated 50,017 GWh of energy and it grew Coal generationgeneration sector of thealso Philippine increased Power Industry. Generationin the in past2011 at 69,1 five76 GWh years rose and became the most dominant and 10. As new generating capacities were added to with an average annual growth rate of 4.71 Coal generation also increased in themost past utilizedupfive to 82,413 years GWh source after and five years becamein with the substantial generation the 19.14 percentmost growth, dominantmi as shown. This in Figure andis because coal plants provide low-cost the existing supply, generation or production of percent. Majority of the increase is attributed most utilized source in the generation mi 10.. This is because coal plants provideCoal low generation-cost also increased in the past five years and became the most dominant and generationelectricity and a alsostable grew operation in the past . fiveFrom years 2 ,342 which GWhto in the 2011 increase coal of generationnew coal-fired escalatedpower plants to generation and a stable operation. From 2 ,342Coal generation GWh in 2011 also coal increased generation in the escalatedmost past utilizedfive to years source and becamein the generation the most dominantmi . This andis because coal plants provide low-cost 36,686 GWhmanifested or boasting the improvements 44.76 percent in the growthgeneration in just fivein the years. grid. In 2011, there were only 19,681 mostCoal generationutilized also increased source in the past infive years the and generation became the most dominant mi and.G enerationThis fromis Naturalbecause Gas Power Plantscoal remained plants almost at 20,000provide MWh e cept lowin 2013-cost 36,686 GWh or boasting 44.76 percent growth insector just of fivethe Philippine years. Power Industry. Generationgeneration GWhand cominga stable from operation coal plants. andFrom eventually, 2 ,342 GWh in 2011 coal generation escalated to generationmost utilized source inand the generation a stable mi . This operation is because coal plants. From provide low2 ,342-costdue to the GWh 2013 and in201 2011Malampaya coal cheduled generation Maintenance hutdown escalated( M ).In those to in 2011 at 69,176 GWh rose up to 82,413 GWh36,686 after GWhcoal or generation boasting increased 44.76 percent by about growth50 percent in just five years. generation and a stable operation. From 2 ,342 GWh in 2011 coal generation escalated toyears, the off-shore gas facility cut off its supply for 30 days to the three large natural gas- 36,686five yearsGWh with or substantialboasting 19.14 44.76 percent percent growth, growth as indue just to five the operationyears. of new plants such as the 36,686 GWh or boasting 44.76 percent growth in just five years. fired power plants such as 1,200 MW Ilijan, 1,000 MW ta. Rita and 00 MW an Lorenzo shown in Figure 10. 651 MW GNPower Mariveles and the 140 MW plants. These plants used alternate fuels to continue their operation during the Petron RSFFB. 90,000 maintenance of Malampaya. 80,000 , 90,000 2011-2015 Assessment, Performance Year Five 70,000 60,000 , 80,000 70,000
50,000 ,
GWh 60,000 40,000
, 50,000 30,000
GWh GW , 40,000 20,000 30,000 10,000 , 20,000 0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 , Geothermal Coal Natural Gas Hydro Wind10,000 Biomass Solar Oil-based Geothermal Coal Natural Gas Hydro Wind Biomass Solar Oil-based 0 Geothermal Coal Natural Gas Hydro Wind Biomass Solar Oil-based 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 FigureFigureFigure 10.. P ilippine Philippine . PowerP ilippine Generation Power Mix Generation Power, in Generation GW Mix, MixGeothermal, Coal in GW Natural Gas Hydro Wind Biomass Solar Oil-based Figure . P ilippine Power Generation MixGeothermal, 2011-2015 Coal(in GWh) in GW Natural Gas HydroGeothermal Wind Coal BiomassBiomass Natural Gas SolarHydro Wind Oil olar-basedOil-based Figure . P ilippine Power Generation Mix, in GW FigureFigure 11. Luzon. u on Power Power Generation Generation Mix, Mix, in GW 2011- Coal generationFigure also increased. P ilippine in the Power past five Generation Mix, in GW Figure 10. Philippines Power Generation Mix, 2011-2015 (in GWh) 2015 (in GWh) years andFigure became 10. Philippines the most dominant Power Generation and Mix, 2011-2015 (in GWh) IS S Figure 10. Philippines Power GenerationThe Luzonmost Grid hasutilized theMix, largest 2011-2015 generationsource amongin the(inthe three GWh)generation grids since almost mix. three- fourths Figure 11. Philippines Power Generation Mix, 2011-2015 (in GWh) The Luzon Grid has the largest generation among theVISAYAS three grids since almost three-fourths of the Thistotal generatingis because facilities arecoal from plantsthis grid. tartingprovide 2011, low-costLuzon has generated GenerationFigure from 10. PhilippinesNatural Gas PowerPower GenerationPlants Mix, 2011-2015 (in GWh) The Luzon Grid has the largest generationof the among total thegenerating three grids facilities since almostare from three this-fourths grid.The Visayas tarting Grid remains primarily2011, dependent Luzon on the energy has generated generated by geothermal and 0,017generation GWh of energy andand it Figuregrew a stable with an 10. averageoperation. Philippines annual growth From rate Power 25,342 of 4.71 percent. Generationremained Mix, almost 2011-2015 at 20,000 (in MWh GWh) except in 2013 of the total generating facilities are from this grid. tarting 2011, Luzon hasThe generated Luzoncoal power Gr idplants.has Coal generationthe largest in the region grewgeneration by 16. percent from among 2011 to 2012 the three grids since almost three-fourths 0,017Majority GWhGWh of the of increasein energy2011 is attributed coal and to thegeneration increaseit grew of new coalescalatedwith-fired poweran plantsaverageto in the dueannual to the 2013growth and 2015 rate Malampaya of 4.71 Scheduled percent. 0,017 GWh of energy and it grew with anThe average Luzon Gr annualid has growththe largest rate generation of 4.71 percent. amongdue to the the various threecoal power gridsprojects that since went online. almost On the other three hand, it can-fourths be Majoritygrid. Inof36,686 2011, the there GWhincrease were onlyor 19,681boasting is GWh attributed coming 44.76 from percent coal plantsto the andgrowthof eventually increasethe , coaltotal Maintenanceof generating new coal Shutdown-fired facilities power (SMS). are Inplants thosefrom inyears, this the grid. tarting 2011, Luzon has generated of the total generating facilities are from thisobserv edgrid. that the generation tarting from diesel 2011,-fired power Luzonplants for the pasthas five yearsgenerated (2011- Majority of the increase is attributed to thegeneration increasein just increased five ofby years.about new 0 percent coal due-fired to the operation power of new plantsplants 0,017 such asin theGWh thetheof off-shore energy gas andfacility it cut grew off its with supply an for 30average annual growth rate of 4.71 percent. grid. In 2011, there were only 19,681 GWh coming201 ) havefrom been stablecoal and wereplants relatively lowerand compared eventually to the years before, coalsignificant grid. In 2011, there were only 19,681 GWh 0,0176 1 comingMW GNPower GWh Marivelesfromofand energycoal the 140 MWplants Petron and R FFB. andit grew eventually Majoritywith an, coal averageofdays the to increase theannual three islargegrowth attributed natural rate gas-fired toof the4.71 power increase percent. of new coal-fired power plants in the generation increased by about 0 percent due to numberthe of operation baseload capacities were of introduced new in plantsthe area. such as the MajorityLuzon of the increase is attributed to the increaseplants such of new as 1,200 coal MW- firedIlijan, 1,000 power MW Sta.plants Rita in the generation increased by about 0 percent6 1 MW due GNPower to the operation Mariveles ofand new the plants140 MW grid.such Petron Inas 232011,the R FFB. there were only 19,681 GWh coming from coal plants and eventually, coal grid.Department In of Energy2011, (DOE) there were only 19,681 GWh comingand 500 from MW Sancoal Lorenzo plants plants. and These eventually plants , coal 6 1 MW GNPower Mariveles and the 140 MW Petron R FFB. generationAs seen increased in Figure 8, total generation by inabout Visayas for 2013 0 and percent 2014 were lower due compared to to the operation of new plants such as the gPowereneration DevelopmentThe Luzon Plan increased 2016 –Grid2040 has by the about largest 0 generation percent due toused the alternate operation fuels to ofcontinue new theirplants operation such as the 6 1 MW2012. GNPower This can be attributed Mariveles to the recent calamitiesand thatthe struck140 the region MW, such Petron23as the R FFB. among the three grids since almost three- 23during the maintenance of Malampaya. Department6 1 MW of Energy GNPower (DOE) Mariveles and the 140 MWOctober Petron 2013 magnitude R FFB. 7.2 earthquake in Bohol and the November 2013 uper Typhoon Department of Energy (DOE) Power Developmentfourths ofPlan the 2016 total– 204generating0 facilities olanda that caused heavy damage to the Visayas that included various generating facilities 23 Power Development Plan 2016 – 2040 23 Departmentand the oftransmission Energy and distribution (DOE) lines and equipment. Department of Energy (DOE) Power Development Plan 2016 – 2040 16 Power Development Plan 2016 – 2040
24 Department of Energy (DOE) Power Development Plan 2016 – 2040 POWER DEVELOPMENT PLAN, 2016 2040
Five Year Performance Assessment, 2011-2015 Visayas With the current push for renewable energy, the contribution of renewable energy resources such The Visayas Grid remains primarily dependent as solar, wind, and biomass to the generation on the energy generated by geothermal and mix of the region is becoming more significant. coal power plants. Coal generation in the region The power generated from these resources grew Generationgrew by 16.5 percent from 2011 to 2012 due to by 194 percent from 2014 to 2015. This growth Generation the various coal power projects that went online. is still expected to increase in the coming years On the other hand, it can be observed that the since most of the capacities that are expected GenerationAs new generatinggeneration capacities from diesel-fired were power added plants to the for e istingto besupply, in operation generation are renewable or production energy plants. of GenerationAs new generating capacities were added to the e isting supply, generation or production of electricity alsothe past grew five yearsin the(2011-2015) past have five beenyears stable which manifested the improvements in the electricity also grew in the past fivegeneration years which andsector were manifested of relatively the Philippine lower the compared improvements Power to the Industry. years in theGenerationMindanao in 2011 at 69,176 GWh rose generation sector of the Philippine Powerup to Industry. 82,413before GWh Generation significant after five number in years 2011 of baseload withat 69,1 substantial capacities76 GWh rose19.14 percent growth, as shown in Figure up to 82,413 GWh after five years with substantialwere 19.14 introduced percent in the growth, area. as shown in FigureThe Mindanao Grid generated 10,129,866 MWH 10. of energy for 2015 and it grew with an average 10. As seen in Figure 12, total generation in Visayas annual growth rate of 3.89% percent from 2011. Coal generationfor 2013 also and 2014increased were lower in compared the past to 2012.five years Thisand growthbecame is attributedthe most to dominantthe addition andof Coal generation also increased in themost past utilizedfive yearsThis source can and be attributedbecamein the generationto the the recentmost calamitiesdominantmi . This andis becauseembedded coalgenerators plants (diesel provide and run-off low -rivercost that struck the region, such as the October hydro plants) and the commercial operation of the most utilized source in the generationgeneration mi . WithThis theand currentis abecause pushstable for renewable operationcoal energy, plants the contribution. From provide of renewable2 ,342 lowenergy GWh-cost in 2011 coal generation escalated to generation and a stable operation. From 2 ,342resources2013 GWh such asmagnitude solar, in wind, 2011 and biomass 7.2 coal earthquake to the generation mi in of theBohol region escalated isand becoming toTherma South Coal Unit 1. 36,686 GWhthe or November boasting 2013 44.76 Super percent Typhoon growth Yolanda in just five years. 36,686 GWh or boasting 44.76 percent growthmore in significant. just fiveThe power years. generated from these resources grew by 194 percent from that caused heavy damage to the Visayas Hydro power plants retained its largest share 2014 to 201 . This growth is still e pected to increase in the coming years since most of the that included various generating facilities and in the generation mix of Mindanao for the past capacities that are e pected to be in operation are renewable energy plants. the transmission and distribution lines and years despite the frequent maintenance and equipment. outages of the Agus and Pulangi hydroelectric , power plants. There are also a number of run- off river types of hydroelectric power plants that 12,000 , were commissioned from 2011 to 2015 which are embedded to distribution utilities. These power 10,000 , plants have contributed to the share of hydro 8,000 , sources to the power generation mix of Mindanao.
GWh GW 6,000 , On the other hand, coal-fired generation in Mindanao from 2011-2013 has been stable 4,000 , except in 2014, where coal generation declined due to the Mindanao Wide Blackout that occurred 2,000 , on February 2014. This damaged the units of the 0 STEAG Mindanao Coal Fired Power Plant and 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 caused the power plant to undergo maintenance Geothermal Coal Natural Gas Hydro Wind Biomass Solar Oil-based Geothermal Coal Natural Gas HydroGeothermal Wind Coal BiomassBiomass Natural Gas SolarHydro Wind Oil olar-basedOil-based for at least two months. For 2015, the generation FigureFigure 12. Visayas . P ilippine Power Generation Power Mix, Generation 2011- Mixfrom, coal increased in due GW to the commercial Figure . P ilippine Power Generation Mix, 2015 (in GWh) in GW operation of Therma South Coal Unit 1.
MI D Figure . isayas Power Generation Mix, in GW Figure 12. Visayas Power Generation Mix, 2011-2015 (in GWh) Figure 10. Philippines Power Generation Mix, 2011-2015 (in GWh) The Mindanao Grid generated 10,129,866 MWH of energy for 201 and it grew with an Figure 10. Philippines Power GenerationMINDANAO17 Mix, 2011-2015 (in GWh) The Luzonaverage Gr annualid growthhas ratethe of 3.89 largest percent from generation 2011. This growth is attributedamong to the the three grids since almost three-fourths The Luzon Grid has the largest generation among the three grids since almost three-fourths of the totaladdition of generatingembedded generators (diesel facilities and run-off river are hydro plants)from and the thiscommercial grid. tarting 2011, Luzon has generated of the total generating facilities are 0,017 from thisGWhoperation grid. ofof the Therma energy tarting outh Coaland Unit 2011, 1. it grew Luzon with has an generated average annual growth rate of 4.71 percent. 0,017 GWh of energy and it grew Majoritywith an averageof the increase annual isgrowth attributed rate toof the4.71 increase percent. of new coal-fired power plants in the Majority of the increase is attributedgrid. to the In increase2011,Hydro power plantsthere of retained new were its largest coal shareonly in-fired the generation 19,681 power mi of GWhMindanao plants forcoming the past in the from coal plants and eventually, coal years despite the frequent maintenance and outages of the Agus and Pulangi hydroelectric grid. In 2011, there were only 19,681generation GWh coming increased from bycoal about plants 0 andpercent eventually due to, coalthe operation of new plants such as the power plants. There are also a number of run-off river types of hydroelectric power plants generation increased by about 0 percent6 1 MW due GNPower to the operation Mariveles ofand new the plants140 MW such Petron as the R FFB. 6 1 MW GNPower Mariveles and the 140 MWthat Petron were commissioned R FFB. from 2011 to 201 which are embedded to distribution utilities. These power plants have contributed to the share of hydro sources to the power generation 23 Departmentmi of Mindanao.of Energy (DOE) 23 Department of Energy (DOE) Power Development Plan 2016 – 2040 Power Development Plan 2016 – 2040 On the other hand, coal-fired generation in Mindanao from 2011-2013 has been stable e cept in 2014, where coal generation declined due to the Mindanao Wide Blackout that occurred on February 2014. This damaged the units of the TEAG Mindanao Coal Fired
2 Department of Energy (DOE) Power Development Plan 2016 – 2040
25 POWER DEVELOPMENT PLAN, 2016 2040
The generation of diesel power plants dropped AGE AND ECONOMIC LIFE OF from 2010 to 2011 due to the rehabilitation and POWER GENERATING PLANTS upgrading of the former Iligan Diesel Power Plant. After the rehabilitation, the power plant The DOE is looking at assessing the power sector Generationwas recommissioned under the Mapalad Power performance based on the age of existing power Generation Corporation (MPC) in 2013 which contributed to generating plants relative to its economic life. the increase in generation for diesel. The other This shall be part of the DOE’s plant performance GenerationAs new generatingpower plants capacities that are wereoperating added using to diesel the e isting supply, generation or production of As new generating capacities were added to the e isting supply, generation or production assessmentof and benchmarking activities to Generation electricity alsofuel are grew the Southern in the Philippines past five Power years Corp. whichin manifested the improvements in the Power Plant and caused the power plant to undergo maintenance for at least 2 months. For improve power generation, operational efficiency electricity also grew in the past five years whichGeneral manifested Santos City, Westernthe improvements Mindanao Power in the generation201 , thesector generation fromof coalthe increased Philippine due to the commercial Power operation ofIndustry. Therma outh Generationand system reliability. in 2011 at 69,176 GWh rose generation sector of the Philippine Power Industry.Corp. Generation in Zamboanga in City 2011 and at the 69,1 two76 power GWh rose up to 82,413Coal Unit 1.GWh after five years with substantial 19.14 percent growth, as shown in Figure barges operated by the Therma Marine Inc. up to 82,413 GWh after five years with10. substantial 19.14 percent growth, as shown in FigureFor coal-fired power plants, some subcritical 10. The generationThe increase for diesel power in plantsgeneration have dropped for from 2014 2010 tois 2011 mainly due to the plants in Luzon and Visayas were already beyond rehabilitationattributed and upgrading to ofthe the former embedded Iligan Diesel Power diesel Plant. Aftergenerators the rehabilitation, 30 and 20 years in operation, respectively. In 2011-2015 Assessment, Performance Year Five the power plant was recommissioned under the Mapalad Power Corporation (MPC) in 2013 Coal generationthat started also operating increased during in the the year. past five yearsgeneral, and becameCoal-fired powerthe most plants aredominant prescribed and to Coal generation also increased in the past fivewhich yearscontributed toand the increase became in generation forthe diesel. most The other podominantwer plants that are and most utilized source in the generation mi . This is bebecause operationalcoal for aplants period ofprovide 60 years lowprovided-cost most utilized source in the generation mi . operatingThisFor using isbiomass, dieselbecause fuel are thethe outhern coalbagasse-fired Philippines plants Power Corpcogenerationprovide in General antos low City, -cost generationWestern and Mindanao a Powerstable Corp in amboangaoperation City and the. twoFrom power barges 2 ,342 operated by GWhthat in periodic 2011 coalmaintenance generation will be escalatedimplemented to Plant of Crystal Sugar started exporting to FIBECO generation and a stable operation. From36,686 2 ,342 GWhthe Therma GWh or Marine boasting inInc. The2011 increase 44.76 coalin generation percentgeneration for 2014 is mainly growth attributed escalated into the just toby five operators. years. in the year 2012. Generation from geothermal 36,686 GWh or boasting 44.76 percent growthembedded in just diesel fivegenerators years. that started operating during the year. power plants has been stable in the past five (5) Natural gas power plants in Luzon are almost two- For biomass,years the with Bagasse the-fired normalCogeneration operation Plant of Crystal of ugar the started Mt. e porting Apo to decade-old in operation since the commissioning FIBECOGeothermal in the year 2012. Generation Power fromPlant. geothermal has been stable in the past five ( ) of the Malampaya Gas facility in Palawan in 2000. years with the normal operation of the Mt. Apo Geothermal Power Plant. It is projected that by 2024, the supply of natural gas from Malampaya will be depleted. 12,000 , Hydro power plants in the Philippines are the 10,000 , oldest among the types of technology mentioned. , 8,000 Some of these plants, such as Botocan and
Caliraya, have been operational since World War II.
GWh , 6,000 Geothermal power plants in the Philippines have GW exceeded their typical economic life which is at 4,000 , 20 years. For example, Makban and Tiwi, two of the larger geothermal power plants have already , 2,000 been operating for more than 30 years. 0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 On the other hand, other RE technologies such as Geothermal Coal Natural Gas Hydro Wind Biomass Solar Oil-based Geothermal Coal Hydro Biomass olar Oil-based solar, wind and biomass are new with ages ranging Geothermal Coal Natural Gas Hydro Wind Biomass Solar Oil-based from one to twelve years. Biomass technologies FigureFigure 13. Mindanao . P ilippine Power Generation Power Generation Mix, are Mix expected, to last up in to 45GW years while solar and Figure . P ilippine Power Generation Mix, 2011-2015 (in GWh) in GW wind are up to 20 to 30 years.
Figure 13. Mindanao Power Generation Mix, 2011-2015 (in GWh) Figure 10. Philippines Power Generation Mix, 2011-2015 (in GWh) Figure 10. Philippines Power Generation Mix, 2011-2015 (in GWh) The Luzon Grid has the largest generation among the three grids since almost three-fourths 18 The Luzon Grid has the largest generationof the among total thegenerating three grids facilities since almostare from three this-fourths 26grid. tarting 2011, Luzon has generated of the total generating facilities are from thisDepartment grid. of Energy tarting(DOE) 2011, Luzon has generated 0,017 GWhPower Developmentof energy Plan 2016 – 2040 and it grew with an average annual growth rate of 4.71 percent. 0,017 GWh of energy and it grew Majoritywith an averageof the increase annual isgrowth attributed rate toof the4.71 increase percent. of new coal-fired power plants in the Majority of the increase is attributedgrid. to the In increase2011, there of new were coal only-fired 19,681 power GWh plants coming in the from coal plants and eventually, coal grid. In 2011, there were only 19,681generation GWh coming increased from bycoal about plants 0 andpercent eventually due to, coalthe operation of new plants such as the generation increased by about 0 percent6 1 MW due GNPower to the operation Mariveles ofand new the plants140 MW such Petron as the R FFB. 6 1 MW GNPower Mariveles and the 140 MW Petron R FFB. 23 Department of Energy (DOE) 23 Department of Energy (DOE) Power Development Plan 2016 – 2040 Power Development Plan 2016 – 2040 POWER DEVELOPMENT PLAN, 2016 2040 Five Year Performance Assessment, 2011-2015 Table 8. Age of Power Generating Plants per Technology
Economic Luzon Visayas Mindanao Plant Type Life* Max Min Ave Max Min Ave Max Min Ave Coal Subcritical Pulvurized 60 33 4 18.5 24 24 24 11 11 11 Circulating Fluidized Bed 60 2 1 1.5 7 1 4 2 1 1.5 (CFB) Oil-based 30 24 3 13.5 39 1 20 23 4 13.5 Natural Gas 30 17 1 9.0 Renewable Energy (RE) Geothermal 20 38 3 20.5 34 3 18.5 21 21 21 Hydro 100 75 2 38.5 56 1 28.5 64 3 33.5 Wind 20 12 3 7.5 3 2 2.5 Biomass 45 8 1 4.5 10 2 6 Solar 30 2 1 1.5 3 1 2 1 1 1
* Source: National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), 2008
SIGNIFICANT INCIDENTS 2011
Over the five-year period, the electric power • Plant Outages industry encountered several forced outages and significant incidents which led to major In 2011, Luzon and Mindanao posted negative system disturbances and power interruptions. In growth in power generation due to the 2011, 2013 and 2015, the Malampaya preventive planned maintenance outages of major coal maintenance activities resulted to supply power plants in Luzon such as Calaca Unit deficiency in Luzon due to limited capacity 1 (300 MW) since September 2011, Pagbilao from Ilijan power plant and the occurrence of Unit 1 (382 MW) during the whole 4th quarter forced outages. Furthermore, this also resulted to of 2011 and Sual Unit 1 since 20 August to 16 higher power cost by running these combined- October 2011. In Mindanao, Mindanao Coal cycle power plants using alternative fuels. Major Unit 1 (116 MW) was on planned outage since blackouts also occurred due to technical issues 15 to 24 October 2011 while Mindanao Coal such as system faults, transmission line trippings Unit 2 since 16 to 31 July 2011. and cascading forced outages of power plants. Moreover, the power system was adversely • 20 to 26 October 2011 - Malampaya affected by natural disasters such as the El Niño, Scheduled Shutdown typhoons and a major earthquake causing damage to energy infrastructure. In Mindanao, Generation from natural gas slightly increased transmission tower bombings caused disruptions to about 4 percent in 2011 due to the supply in power delivery of generating plants. constraint brought about by the maintenance
19 POWER DEVELOPMENT PLAN, 2016 2040
shutdown of the Malampaya natural gas 2012 pipeline from 20 to 26 October. The effect of the gas restriction caused the whole plant • 04 December 2012 – Typhoon Pablo/ of Ilijan (1,200 MW) to be unavailable for the Bopha whole period in parallel with the Malampaya Natural Gas shutdown. On 04 November 2012, Typhoon Pablo (International Name: Bopha) slammed • 27 September 2011 - Typhoon Pedring Mindanao provinces such as Misamis Oriental, Surigao del Sur, Agusan del Sur, Compostela In 2011, Typhoon Pedring (international name: Valley, and Davao Oriental as well as Siquijor Nesat) hit Luzon grid on 27 September 2011 province, hitting some of the same cities and and caused damages to the power lines towns still recovering from the havoc suffered in many areas in the NCR and the nearby during Typhoon Sendong in 2011. Pablo was
provinces of Cavite, Batangas, Bulacan suffered 375 miles in diameter and packed gusts up 2011-2015 Assessment, Performance Year Five blackouts as strong winds damaged power to 130 mph with torrential rains on average lines. It was estimated to 1.9 million or “almost over one inch per hour. According to the close to half” of Meralco’s customers were left NDRRMC, as of December 18, the death toll without power as the storm swept through from Pablo reached 1,046 people with 841 still Metro Manila and surrounding provinces.19 missing, and damages to agriculture reaching Pedring caused power outage in Luzon which $398 million, infrastructure $190.4 million, and dropped the grid demand to a low 3,732 MW. private property $1.2 million. 21
• 16 to 18 December 2011 - Tropical Storm Several transmission lines servicing Mindanao Sendong distribution utilities were cut during the passage of Typhoon Pablo which brought On the latter part of 2011, Tropical Storm down the total grid demand to 791 MW. Sendong (international name: Washi) was named the world’s deadliest typhoon that hit 2013 Philippines in 2011 and killed at least 957 people with hundreds missing according the National • 15 October 2013 – Bohol Earthquake Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council (NDRRMC).20 It made its first landfall at An earthquake of tectonic origin with a the vicinity of Hinatuan, Surigao del Sur in the magnitude of 7.2 occurred in Region VII at afternoon of 16 December 2011 and traversed about 8:12 a.m, 15 October 2013 with an the provinces of Agusan del Sur, Bukidnon and epicenter at Carmen, Bohol Province. This Misamis Oriental, and the cities of Cagayan caused region-wide outages in Bohol, Cebu de Oro and El Salvador before midnight. This and Negros. Power plants such as Central caused torrential rains that led to widespread Azucarera de San Antonio (CASA) and Panay and catastrophic flooding, including power Energy Development Corporation (PEDC) in outages in major cities in Northern Mindanao Iloilo as well as the Cebu Thermal Power Plant such as Cagayan de Oro and Iligan City. 2 (CTPP2) and Cebu Energy Development
19http://www.gmanetwork.com/news/story/233585/news/nation/typhoon-pedring-exits-luzon-leaves-18-people-dead 20http://news.abs-cbn.com/nation/12/19/11/sendong-worlds-deadliest-storm-2011 21http://asiafoundation.org/2012/12/19/typhoon-pablo-batters-typhoon-free-mindanao/
20 POWER DEVELOPMENT PLAN, 2016 2040 Five Year Performance Assessment, 2011-2015 Corporation (CEDC) in Cebu, went on outage • PB 103 in Estancia, Iloilo (detached due to destruction caused by the earthquake mooring causing damage to hull and oil but went back on normal operation on the spill to the area) same day. • 11 November to 10 December 2013 – Unfortunately, majority of the supply which 30-day Malampaya O -shore Gas eld was coming from the Leyte grid (mainly from Turnaround Unified Leyte Geothermal Power Plant) thru the submarine cable connecting Bohol and The Malampaya scheduled maintenance Leyte was cut off due to the earthquake. shutdown was intended for the replacement of the obsolete Safety Instrumented System • 08 November 2013 – Super Typhoon (SIS) and Fire and Gas System on SWP. It Yolanda/Haiyan also included additional works such as implementation of changes to enable On November 8, 2013, Super Typhoon Yolanda production of new wells for Malampaya (International Name: Haiyan) cut a devastating Project 2 and, completion of critical electrical path across the central Philippines. It made tie-ins for the depletion compressors. a landfall at Guiuan, Eastern Samar. It had a Original schedule was 01 November to 01 storm strength of category 5 - highest and December 2013 but was moved to a new the strongest tropical cyclone to ever make schedule of 09 November to 08 December a landfall. It had sustained wind speed at 195 2013. This was further moved to a later date, miles per hour and wind gusts up to 235 miles 11 November to 10 December 2013. The two- per hour. This natural calamity caused severe day deferment was caused by the delay in the damage to the power system in Visayas. In shipment of equipment and personnel to the the transmission sector, NGCP accounted 566 off-shore gas field during the Super Typhoon transmission structures (248 towers and 318 “Yolanda” (Haiyan) that hit Central Visayas on poles) that were damaged by the typhoon. 08 November 2013. Also there were 7 substations that were damaged in the area. This activity on Malampaya off-shore gas field caused the tight supply condition in Majority of distribution utilities in Visayas, the Luzon Grid. Ilijan Block A operated at a as well as in Bicol and MIMAROPA regions, limited capacity of 420 MW due to biodiesel suffered immensely during the devastation operation then went on planned outage of the typhoon. There were also power plants from 05 to 10 December 2013 due to 5-day that incurred damages from the strong winds nozzle cleaning in preparation for the gas of the typhoon, as follows: operation. On the other hand, Block B was out for Maintenance from 12 November to • Tongonan Geothermal and Unified 12 December 2013. Available units of Sta. Leyte (Cooling towers of the Malitbog, Rita and San Lorenzo power plants operated Tongonan and Mahanagdong Power using alternate fuel during the maintenance Plants have sustained damages including shutdown. Aside from these outages of Admin building and control rooms; and natural gas power plants, there were other
21 POWER DEVELOPMENT PLAN, 2016 2040
outages that occurred within the turnaround The average WESM price ballooned to P33.216 period that aggravated the tightness of per kilowatt hour (kWh) in November and supply in Luzon: P36.08 per kWh in December, against only P13.74 per kWh in October. The Supreme Court • GNPower Unit 2 (Forced outage from 12 to (SC) issued a Temporary Restraining Order 19 November 2013 due to turbine vibration (TRO) on Meralco’s record high price increase correction) in its December generation charge of P3.44 • Calaca Unit 1 (Forced outage from 26 October per kilowatt-hour to P9.10 per kWh. to 15 November 2013 due to low condenser vacuum) In effect, the SC ordered Meralco to revert to • Pagbilao Unit 2 (Planned outage from its old generation charge of P5.67 per kWh. 31 August to 26 November 2013) With the rate hike of over P4 per kWh on hold, Meralco faces roughly P10 billion in payables
Several coal-fired generating units also to energy suppliers, through the Philippine 2011-2015 Assessment, Performance Year Five suffered boiler tube leak during the latter Electricity Market Corp., the operator of the part of the turnaround causing severe supply WESM. shortage in the Luzon grid and high offer price of peaking power plants in the Wholesale 2014 Electricity Spot Market (WESM). The coal-fired power plants that went on forced outage due • 27 February 2014 – Mindanao Blackout to boiler tube leak are as follows: On 27 February 2014, Mindanao experienced a • GNPower Unit 2 (Forced outage from 27 grid-wide blackout due to a demand and supply November to 08 December 2013); imbalance causing under-frequency (UFR). This • Pagbilao Unit 1 (Forced outage from 28 was caused by a combination of events like the November to 12 December 2013); unwanted loss of generation of 2 x 105 MW • Pagbilao Unit 2 (Forced outage from 28 STEAG Mindanao Coal-fired Power Plant caused November to 13 December 2013); and by unprecedented plant control system trouble, • Masinloc Unit 1 (Forced outage from 06 defective equipment of Agus 1 Hydroelectric to 08 December 2013) power plant and insufficient Automatic Load Drop (ALD) at Off-Peak scenario. With these outages, the electricity price for November and December of MERALCO was Repair of Unit 1 (105 MW) was completed on greatly affected. The rate of Meralco, which 08 May 2014 and Unit 2 (105 MW) went online comprises almost 70 percent demand in Luzon, on 01 June 2014. in December spiked on account of higher generation charge for power purchased from • 12 July 2014 – PIGging activity for Ilijan WESM. Meralco had to buy more power from Pipeline the spot market due to tight supply brought about by the Malampaya maintenance and Due to the compromised integrity of the Ilijan the simultaneous outages of some power pipeline supplying natural gas, the National plants. Power Corporation, in coordination with the
22 POWER DEVELOPMENT PLAN, 2016 2040
Five Year Performance Assessment, 2011-2015 other stakeholders such as Shell Philippines 2015 Exploration B.V, KEILCO, DOE, NGCP, PSALM conducted a “PIGging” activity to check • 19 February 2015 – Visayas Partial Blackout if there were abnormalities such as leaks, malformation or dents within the pipeline. There was a widespread system disturbance An instrument called PIG, which stands for in Visayas grid which occurred last 19 February Pipeline Intelligence Gauge, was inserted in 2016 at around 1:45 AM due to a fault caused by the pipeline and traveled from Tabangao on- the explosion of Potential Transformer (PT) at the shore gas facility to the Ilijan power plant. 138 kV side of Cebu Diesel Power Plant 1 (CDPP1) This activity was the first PIGging of the said Generator Transformer No. 2 connected to the pipeline after it was constructed 12 years ago. NGCP Old Naga substation. Power restoration was completed at 9:09 AM of the same date. The PIGging activity for Ilijan pipeline was finalized on scheduled on 11 July 2014 (2200H) • 15 March to 13 April 2015 – 2015 to 13 July 2014 (2200H) for the purpose of Malampaya Turnaround inspecting its integrity, and to clean the debris in the pipeline. Due to this activity, the Luzon In the advent of a projected power shortage grid experienced Red alert on 12 July 2014, in the Luzon grid in Summer 2015, Shell Saturday, due to generation deficiency caused Philippines Exploration B.V. conducted their by limited capacity of Ilijan, and the outages of 30-day maintenance of the Malamapaya to Masinloc Unit 1, Calaca Unit 2, Pagbilao Unit 1 give way for the coupling of the newly built and GN Power Unit 2. Malampaya Phase 3 platform to the existing platform. The purpose was to increase the • 15 to 16 July 2014 – Typhoon Glenda/ capability to retrieve the indigenous gas Rammasun supply in SC-38. With this maintenance, gas supply for natural gas has been cut out. Typhoon Glenda (International Name: Contingency plan during this event is the Rammasun) hit the Luzon particularly Bicol operation of 1,500 MW Sta. Rita and San region, Southern and Central Luzon as well as Lorenzo Natural gas-fired power plant in Metro Manila. It had 250 kph wind and caused Batangas using condensate as alternative Php 38 billion damages to agriculture and fuel. This is more expensive compared to the infrastructure .22 natural gas from Malampaya. For the 1,200 MW Ilijan plant, also in Batangas, Block A Power supply from power plants such as the (600 MW) was operated using biodiesel at a coal plants of Pagbilao and QPPL as well as the limited capacity of 420 MW while Block B was natural gas plants like Ilijan, Sta Rita and San scheduled for maintenance. Lorenzo were affected by the typhoon. Around 90% of Meralco’s franchise area experienced • 5 April 2015 – Mindanao Blackout power outage brought about by downed poles, lines and outages of transmission lines At 1:01 AM of 5 April 2015, Mindanao grid according to NGCP. experienced a system blackout. A fault occurred on Line 2 of Agus 7 138 KV which
22Data gathered from the last update by National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council (NDRRMC) as of September 16, 2014
23 POWER DEVELOPMENT PLAN, 2016 2040
was caused by the failure of the insulator of October 2015 as it entered from Aurora, crossed Agus 7 138 kV double circuit line 2 Phase A Nueva Ecija, Nueva Viscaya, Benguet, Ilocos Sur, due to severe corrosion of the suspension and exited Ilocos Norte leaving 13 provinces insulator shank. The sequence of events led with full or partially province-wide power to the tripping of the transmission lines and outages due to the affected transmission lines. power plants followed by the splitting of the Mindanao grid into two sub-grids - the • 2015 El Niño Phenomenon23 Northern and Southern part, then resulted in total system collapse. The system collapse was Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and due to the lack of supply during that time to Astronomical Services Administration support the demand. (PAGASA) declared the state of El Niño in 2015 characterized by unusually warm All Area Control Centers (ACC) sub-grids were ocean surface temperatures in the central
interconnected and all NGCP substations were and eastern equatorial Pacific. This resulted 2011-2015 Assessment, Performance Year Five fully energized at 7:52 AM of 5 April 2015. to a period of long dry spell to drought characterized by below to way below • June 2015 – Fire incident that a ected the normal rainfall conditions. From weak to operations of KSPC moderate conditions in the early months of 2015, strong El Niño evolved starting fourth A fire incident happened last 31 May 2015 quarter of 2015 affecting most parts of the within the compound of the coal plant of country. This phenomenon persisted until KSPC which affected the coal conveyors of the June 2016 which resulted to high system generating facilities. Both units were out from demand and low water level of reservoirs 31 May to 03 June 2015 that put the Visayas and weirs, especially in Mindanao. grid on Red Alert status. KSPC Unit 1 (103 MW) went online on 4 June 2015 while KSPC Unit • Bombed and Toppled Transmission Towers 2 (103 MW) was on unplanned maintenance in Mindanao for 2015 from 31 May to 14 June 2015. In 2015, there were occurrences of transmission • October 2015 – Typhoon Lando tower bombings in Mindanao which caused the interruption in the power delivery of On 12 October 2015, a typhoon was detected power plants. A series of investigations and in the Pacific Ocean named “Lando” with an coordination meetings in Congress, under the international name “Koppu”. It entered the House Committee on Energy, were held to seek Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) on resolutions on the issue as well as to resolve 14 October 2016 and made its landfall on 18 any peace and security concerns to prevent October 2016 over Casiguran, Aurora with a future bombings of the power industry assets maximum speed of 185 kph and gustiness of such as transmission towers, substations, and 220 kph. There were four (4) 500 kV lines, twelve others. Following were the towers bombed in (12) 230 kV lines, and forty-two (42) 69 kV lines 2015: that were affected during the passage of the said typhoon. Typhoon Lando dissipated on 21
23PAGASA El Niño Advisories
24 POWER DEVELOPMENT PLAN, 2016 2040
Five Year Performance Assessment, 2011-2015 Table 9. Bombed and Toppled Transmission Towers in Mindanao for 2015
Date of Date of A ected Transmission line Tower No. Date of Bombing Temporary Permanent Restoration Restoration Kabacan-Sultan Kudarat 138kV Line 26 13 January 2015 13 October 2015 Kabacan-Sultan Kudarat 138kV Line 41 18 January 2015 03 October 2015 Kibawe - Tacurong 138kV Line 155 26 January 2015 21 December 2015 Kabacan-Sultan Kudarat 138kV 25 Line (IED unexploded) 27 January 2015 Kibawe – Sultan Kudarat 138kV Line 44, 45 09 October 2015 17 October 2015 Kabacan-Sultan Kudarat 138 kV 110 Line (IED unexploded) 18 October 2015 Agus 2 – Kibawe 138 kV Line 20 29 October 2015 16 December 2015 Agus 2 – Kibawe 138 kV Line 19 29 October 2015 09 November 2015 Agus 2 – Kibawe 138 kV Line 21 (not toppled) 29 October 2015 01 November 2015 Agus 2 – Kibawe 138 kV Line 13 (not toppled) 06 November 2015 09 November 2015 69 Kibawe-Tacurong 138 kV Line (IED unexploded) 13 November 2015 Kibawe – Sultan Kudarat 138kV 68 10 December 2015 16 December 2015 Kibawe – Sultan Kudarat 138kV 168 (not toppled) 18 December 2015 20 December 2015 Kibawe – Tacurong 138kV Line 153 (not toppled) 23 December 2015 28 December 2015 Restoration works Agus 2-Kibawe 138 kV Lines 1 were and 2 25 24 December 2015 suspended since 29 December 2015 Kibawe-Sultan Kudarat 138 kV Line 95 (not toppled) 24 December 2015 27 December 2015 Balo-i-Agus 2 138 kV Lines 1 and 2 4 (not toppled) 28 December 2015 29 December 2015
CHALLENGES AND KEY POLICIES Luzon, Visayas and Mindanao AND PROGRAMS 1. Bureaucratic processes involved in the Ensuring power supply security in the three issuance of various permits, clearances and Grids, especially in Mindanao, has been the certificates forefront concern over the recent years. These 2. Higher occurrence of Forced Outages challenges encompass not only the supply and/ 3. Apparent Poor Maintenance of Power Facilities or technical constraints in the whole system 4. Unresponsive Protective Relays but also involve institutional and regulatory 5. Line Congestions concerns. Among others, below are the major 6. Delays in the completion of generation and challenges which have been encountered over transmission projects the five-year period: 7. Impacts of Climate Change/Natural Calamities (Typhoons, Earthquake and El Niño) 8. Malampaya Gas Turnaround and Restrictions
25 POWER DEVELOPMENT PLAN, 2016 2040
9. Right of Way Issues a mutually agreed period of time. PCs with stand- 10. Need for a well-defined treatment of by generation capacities that are requested by the embedded generation in the market system DU to participate in the ILP during instances of power supply deficits will be compensated should Speci c for Mindanao they use their own generating facilities.
1. Insufficient capacities and over dependence To date, there are about 3,612 MW of Self-Generating on hydro power capacities that can be tapped to participate in the 2. Decreasing capability of the aging power ILP excluding those SGFs owned by firms that are plants of Agus and Pulangui Hydro Complex directly connected to the grid. There are about 3. Timely commissioning of needed capacities 979 MW SGF capacities committed to participate have not materialized due to various technical, in the ILP in Luzon, Visayas, and Mindanao with commercial, institutional and regulatory issues 792.65 MW in Luzon for its Captive Customers
and environmental concerns raised by Local and contestable customers within DUs’ franchise 2011-2015 Assessment, Performance Year Five Government Units (LGU) and communities areas. The Visayan Electric Company is the lone 4. Insufficient power supply contracts of some implementer in the Visayas with 63.70 MW while distribution utilities seven (7) DUs in Mindanao have implemented the 5. Peace and order (Bombing of Transmission ILP involving 48 SGFs with combined capacity of Facilities) 58.40 MW. 6. Intentional planting of vegetation and construction of structures under transmission Mindanao Modular Generator Set Program25 facilities This program was implemented to provide the To address these, the DOE, in coordination with its needed additional power supply to electricity attached agencies, the Energy Regulatory Commission end-users in Mindanao. Through Executive Order (ERC) and electric power industry participants, has 137, the Department of Budget and Management undertaken the following initiatives, policy issuances (DBM) was directed to release the amount of and programs to ensure supply security, foster Four Billion Five Hundred Million Pesos (PhP 4.5 competition, and increase energy access. Billion) sourced from the Malampaya Fund for the implementation of the said modular generator Interruptible Load Program (ILP) sets program. Under the Program, a loan facility is extended to participating electric cooperatives In 2015, the country experienced “yellow” and (ECs) in Mindanao for the acquisition of the “red” alert statuses due to thin reserves and forced modular gensets as an immediate relief to supply outages of power plants. As part of the counter the needed power in the franchise areas of ECs. measures, the DOE and the Energy Regulatory The ECs have the option to eventually retain the Commission (ERC) implemented the Interruptible generator sets or return the generator sets to the Load Program (ILP).24 Under this program, Government when the power supply in Mindanao Distribution Utilities (DU) and its Participating has already stabilized after the entry of new power Customers (PCs) enter into an agreement for a generation projects. Following are the ECs that voluntary full or partial de-loading of the PC during availed the Program as of December 2016:
24 ERC Resolution No. 8, Series of 2010 and amended by Resolution No. 8, Series of 2013 25Executive Order No. 137 Series of 2013
26 POWER DEVELOPMENT PLAN, 2016 2040
Five Year Performance Assessment, 2011-2015 Table 10. Status Report of Mindanao Modular Utilities to Undergo Competitive Selection Process Generator Set Program As of 15 December 2016 in Securing Power Supply Agreements (PSAs).” To implement the policy, the DOE and ERC jointly Capacity Mindanao ECs (MW) Status issued Resolution No. 1, “A Resolution Enjoining Tested and All Distribution Utilities to Conduct CSP in the ZAMCELCO 16 Commissioned. On- going COC application. Procurement of Supply for Their Captive Market” in In Commercial October 2015. Further, ERC issued Resolution No. 13 MORESCO I 2 Operation. Series of 2015, “A Resolution Directing All Distribution On-going Civil and MORESCO II 10 Electric Works. Utilities (DUs) to Conduct a Competitive Selection Tested and Process (CSP) in the Procurement of Their Supply to DANECO 3 Commissioned. On- going COC application. the Captive Market” and ERC Resolution No. 1 Series On-going Site of 2016, “A Resolution Clarifying the Effectivity of ANECO 10 Preparation. Tested and ERC Resolution No. 13, Series of 2015.” To date, the SURNECO 10 Commissioned. On- Technical Working Group (TWG) was created to going COC Application. Total 51 work on drafting the implementing guidelines on the CSP Policy. Interim Mindanao Electricity Market (IMEM)
The IMEM was intended to augment supply by To institutionalize a transparent serving as a venue for transparent and efficient system of power supply utilization of all the available capacities in the contracting that ensure Mindanao Grid. The program started commercial provision of adequate and operations on 3 December 2013; however, due reliable supply of electricity to to system wide blackout, the Mindanao System all end-users, the DOE issued Operator declared an IMEM intervention starting on 11 June 2015, Department 27 February 2014. On 07 May 2014, the DOE issued Circular No. DC2015-06-0008, Department Circular No. DC 2014-05-0010 entitled, “Mandating All Distribution “Amending the Interim Mindanao Electricity Market Utilities to Undergo Competitive Selection Process Rules and Providing for Transitory Arrangements.” in Securing Power Supply Currently, the market intervention issued by the Agreements (PSAs).” Mindanao System Operator has not yet been lifted. The DOE is reviewing the appropriate market mechanisms for Mindanao and the issues on the Privatization of Government’s Power outstanding IMEM settlement are being resolved. Sector Assets
Competitive Selection Process (CSP) The privatization of the government’s power facilities is one of the key features of EPIRA and a To institutionalize a transparent system of power prerequisite to the establishment of a level playing supply contracting that ensure provision of adequate field in the power industry. The period 2010 to and reliable supply of electricity to all end-users, the 2016 saw the turn-over of majority of the National DOE issued on 11 June 2015, Department Circular Power Corporation’s major generation assets, IPP No. DC2015-06-0008, “Mandating All Distribution contracts and transmission assets.
27 POWER DEVELOPMENT PLAN, 2016 2040
As of September 2016, the privatization level seventy-nine (79) Bulk users, and five (5) Wholesale of NPC generating assets in Luzon and Visayas Aggregators. reached 93.5 percent while for total Philippines, it stood at 71.8 percent having privatized a total On the other hand, to ensure the competitiveness of 4,473 MW out 6,234 MW. With respect to IPP of the WESM, the DOE promulgated policies and contracts, privatized capacities include the continue on closely supervising its operations and contracted capacities for Sual and Pagbilao coal- governance. As of November 2016, the DOE has fired thermal power plants, San Roque, Bakun, provided the policies for the implementation of and Benguet mini hydroelectric power plants new WESM Design primarily the change from the and the Ilijan Natural Gas Combined Cycle Power one (1) – hour trading interval to five (5) minutes Plant, and Unified Leyte GPP-Strips of Energy. This trading interval, the removal of minimum stable is equivalent to 77.46 percent of the total NPC loading constraints, preparation for the reserve contracted energy output in Luzon and Visayas market and automation of several features of the
thereby marking the completion of the five Market Management System (MMS) to improve 2011-2015 Assessment, Performance Year Five preconditions for the implementation of RCOA. transparency and competition in the WESM. The Philippine Electricity Market Corporation Wholesale Electricity Spot Market (WESM) (PEMC) is already in the process of determining appropriateness and compliance of the New The establishment of WESM is part of the Market Management Systems (NMMS) to the package of electric power industry reforms rules of the new WESM design. The DOE on the mandated by EPIRA where trading of electricity other hand has promulgated amendments to the through a transparent and competitive process WESM Rules for this purpose. can be made. Following several months of trial operations, the WESM commenced commercial operations in the Luzon grid in 2016 while WESM The establishment of WESM is officially commenced operations in the Visayas part of the package of electric grid in 2010. power industry reforms mandated by EPIRA where trading of electricity through The need of further augmenting the power a transparent and competitive supply in the Visayas region necessitated the process can be made. integration of the Visayas in the WESM. Further, Luzon and Visayas provide market signals to potential investors in the region making it more efficient and a competitive power trading system, Retail Competition and Open Access and would allow for the optimization of the (RCOA) energy flow between the two regions. As of 25 September 2016, the integrated WESM (Luzon The implementation of RCOA is pursuant to and Visayas) has a total of two hundred seventy- Section 31 of Republic Act No. 9136 or the EPIRA six (276) registered participants comprised of one where Contestable Customers (CC) will be allowed hundred five (105) generation companies and one to source their supply of electricity from a Retail hundred seventy-one (171) customers comprised Electricity Supplier (RES) by allowing the use of sixteen (16) Private DUs, seventy-one (71) ECs, of transmission and distribution systems and
28 POWER DEVELOPMENT PLAN, 2016 2040
Five Year Performance Assessment, 2011-2015 associated facilities, subject to the payment of of these areas to viability levels. These missionary areas transmission and distribution wheeling charges are basically off-grid areas or Small Island and Isolated duly approved by the ERC. Grids (SIIG) which are not connected to the main grids of Luzon, Visayas, and Mindanao. Section 70 of EPIRA The initial phase of implementation started with mandates the National Power Corporation (NPC) to electricity end-users with an average peak demand perform missionary electrification function through of at least 1 MW and provided an interim option for its Small Power Utilities Group (SPUG) and shall be CCs to remain with their franchised DUs as Captive responsible for providing power generation and Market. associated power delivery systems. The missionary electrification function is being funded from the With roughly more than two years of revenues from sales in missionary areas from the implementation, challenges with respect to universal charge (UCME) which is being collected implementation were encountered such as from electricity end-users. difficulty of contestable customer to secure supply contracts, ensuring a level playing field for suppliers, By virtue of DOE Department Circular 2004-01-001, and limited capacity for non-generator suppliers. missionary areas have been declared open for private As a counter-measure, the DOE issued Department sector participation (PSP) consistent to the direction Circular No. DC2016-04-0004 providing for the set forth by the EPIRA Law to privatize NPC-SPUG’s new timelines for the mandatory contestability of generating assets. This circular delineates the general the CCs as follows: Table 11. Installed and Dependable Capacity and Peak Demand in SIIGs, as of December 2015 • Starting 26 June 2016, those Contestable Number of Peak Customers (CCs) with an average demand Grid Plants Installed Dependable Demand of 750 and above for the last 12 months Luzon 245 314.46 243.08 163.29 may voluntarily secure its power supply NPC 220 106.90 76.59 from a Retail Electricity Supplier (RES); NPP / IPP / DU / QTP 25 207.55 166.49 • By 26 February 2017, all CCs with an Visayas 50 33.71 23.84 15.82 average demand of 1 MW and above shall NPC 46 17.36 9.79 be required to source their supply from a NPP/DU/ 4 16.35 14.04 licensed RES; QTP Mindanao 25 57.94 40.02 30.75 • By 26 June 2017, all CCs with an average NPC 24 57.27 39.38 demand of below 1 MW to 750 kW for the NPP/DU/ 1 0.07 0.64 last 12 months shall secure their power QTP supply from a licensed RES. Total 320 406.11 306.95 209.86 • By 26 June 2018, aggregators will also be NPC 290 181.53 125.77 NPP/IPP/ allowed to serve electricity end-users with DU/QTP 30 224.58 181.17 Notes: 1. Including 153 PRES Mini-Grid GenSet in Masbate an aggregated demand of at least 750 kW. 2. Excluding BASELCO’s Balagtasan MHPP which is non-operating ORMECO’s Bulangan MHPP which was destroyed by Typhoon Nona Missionary Electri cation Source: NPC Plant Parameters Report, GenCo MORs, DU DDPs guidelines for the selection of a New Power Provider As defined in the EPIRA-IRR, Missionary Electrification (NPP) that will take-over the function of NPC-SPUG at is the provision of basic electricity service in Unviable the onset of the privatization of generation services in Areas with the ultimate aim of bringing the operation a missionary area.
29 POWER DEVELOPMENT PLAN, 2016 2040
As of December 2015, there are 286 SIIGs across the As of December 2015, there are seven areas with a country with total rated capacity of 406.107 MW total of 126.28 MW capacity which have successfully being supplied by 30 NPP/IPP/DU/Qualified Third privatized their generation services and concurrently Party (QTP) plants and 290 NPC-SPUG power plants. receive 24 hours of electricity service: To meet the increasing demand in missionary Table 13. Missionary Areas with New Power areas which currently do not have private power Providers, as of December 2015 providers, NPC undertakes necessary augmentation New Power Date of Contracted of capacity. In 2015, a total of 900kW capacity Area Capacity / Provider Take-over in Luzon has been added to the current rated Energy (MW) Bantayan capacity to augment the supply being delivered to Bantayan Island Power 2006 4.89 Island Corporation over 800,000 households in SPUG areas. Masbate Main Grid DMCI 2010 15.00 Since some areas currently served by NPC-SPUG do Palawan Main Grid DMCI 2013 49.70 not receive 24-hour electricity service, NPC-SPUG 2011-2015 Assessment, Performance Year Five Oriental DMCI July 2014 40.40 accordingly schedules increase in operating hours. Mindoro Calamian Busuanga Island Power August 7.72 Island Corporation 2014 Table 12. NPC-SPUG Increase in Operating Hours Roxas, Palawan DMCI 2014 4.00 Number of Areas Operating Siquijor S. I. Power February 4.56 Hours 2014 2015 Corporation 2015 Total 126.67 24 hours 23 36 16 to 23 hours 10 8 As delegated to perform the function of Missionary 8 to 15 hours 31 78 Electrification, NPC continuously identifies new areas 4 to 8 hours 218 166 Total 282 288 to be electrified. From 2012-2015, these are the areas that were electrified by NPC:
Table 14. NPC Electri ed Areas, 2012-2015
Distribution Capacity Name of Plant Location Utility/Electric Commissioning Date Cooperative (kW) Malaking Ilog Masbate LGU-San Pascual 60 April 9, 2012 Mababang Baybay Masbate LGU-Claveria 60 April 24, 2012 Kiri-kiti Western Samar NPC 60 May 2, 2012 Bagongon Western Samar NPC 60 May 7, 2012 Cinco Rama Western Samar NPC 100 May 8, 2012 Buluan Western Samar NPC 40 May 9, 2012 Dancalan Masbate LGU-San Pascual 80 May 27, 2012 As delegated to perform the function of Missionary Quezon Masbate LGU-Claveria 60 June 7, 2012 Electrification, NPC continuously identifies new Penafrancia Masbate LGU-Claveria 80 June 10, 2012 Osmena Masbate LGU-Claveriaareas to be electrified.80 From 2012-2015, July 10, 2012 these are Batag Northern Samar NORSAMELCOthe areas that were electrified50 March by NPC: 19, 2013 Cabul-an Bohol BOHECO I 64 November 14, 2013 Atulayan Camarines Sur CASURECO IV 22 June 1, 2014 Palumbanes Catanduanes FICELCO 22 February 1, 2015 Total 838
30 POWER DEVELOPMENT PLAN, 2016 2040
Five Year Performance Assessment, 2011-2015 Electri cation nine (9)-point program of the Administration to pursue 100 percent electrification of targeted The government in partnership with various and identified households in all three major stakeholders is committed to bring electricity islands. access to energy-poverty stricken areas in the country. As a conduit to progress, electricity Status of Electrification access is interlinked with advancing the quality of life, delivering the basic and essential services, The barangay was the starting point for the improving productivity and fostering economic program but focus shifted on energizing prosperity. It also directly impacts households in 2010.26 Electrification education as children and youth in at the household level increased unelectrified areas are able to reap The barangay was from 79.7 percent in 2010 to 89.6 27 the benefits of electricity access the starting point percent in July 2016. This shows by having longer study hours in for the program that 20,360,334 out of the potential their homes. This has been the but focus shifted 22,721,430 households are already Government’s guiding framework on energizing enjoying electricity access. in its electrification efforts and households in 2010. initiatives that covers barangays, Electrification on a grid level Electri cation at households and sitios. shows the Luzon has the highest the household level household electrification level at increased from 79.7 For the 2017-2040 planning horizon, 94.8 percent followed by Visayas percent in 2010 to the electrification goals that will at 92.4 percent and Mindanao 89.6 percent in July serve as guideposts for the sector with 72.4 percent. On a per region are: (i) 90 percent household 2016. basis, National Capital Region electrification by 2017; (ii) 100 (NCR) has the highest household percent electrification of targeted electrification level at 98.3 and identified household accessible to grid (based percent (3,451,303 out of the 3,512,439 potential on 2015 Census) and accomplishment of off-grid households already with electricity access). targets by 2022; (iii) Electrification of all targeted In Visayas and Mindanao, Region 7 (Central and identified households (household beyond Visayas) and Region XIII (CARAGA) registered 2015 Census) and 100 percent electrification of the highest electrification levels at 95.9 percent target household in off-grid areas within the and 93.8 percent respectively. ARMM remains period 2023-2040 and (iv) total electricity access as the least electrified region in the country in by 2040. terms of households having only 38.7 percent electrification level or 199,373 energized Consistent with the electrification goals of the households out of the potential 514,592 as PEP, the energy sector is also guided with the shown in the Table 15.
26The shift to electrification at the household level from the barangay was one of the objectives stated under DC No. 2003-04-004 signed by then DOE Secretary Vincent S. Perez. 27DOE adopted NEA’s total potential households from 2011 – 2015 thus adjustments were made for the said period particularly the potential and served households covered by electric cooperatives (EC). The adjustment resulted to having 22,310,084 total potential households in 2015 which is higher than the 22,247,154 total potential households specified in the HEDP Accelerated Scenario. The harmonization with NEA’s is also in line with Sen. Osmeña’s inquiry to both DOE and NEA on the budgetary requirements for achieving 100 percent household electrification. The data sourced for the computation of Household Electrification Level are the NEA Status of Energization Reports for the case of Electric Cooperatives and the Distribution Development Plan (DDP) 2016-2025 submitted to DOE for the case of Private Investor Owned Utilities (PIOUs) and Local Goverment Unit Owned Utilities (LGUOUs).
31 POWER DEVELOPMENT PLAN, 2016 2040
Table 15. Household Electri cation Level by Region, as of July 2016
Region Total HH Served HH Unserved HH Electri cation Level (%)
CAR 392,000 348,471 43,529 88.9% I 1,184,431 1,100,259 84,172 92.9% II 785,900 721,354 64,546 91.8% III 2,687,073 2,593,462 93,611 96.5% IV-A 3,506,353 3,376,855 129,498 96.3% IV-B 648,149 533,017 115,132 82.2% NCR 3,512,439 3,451,303 61,136 98.3% V 1,087,469 964,270 123,199 88.7% Luzon Total 13,803,814 13,088,991 714,823 94.8%
VI 924,701 863,878 60,823 93.4% 2011-2015 Assessment, Performance Year Five VII 1,430,541 1,371,853 58,688 95.9% VIII 889,968 776,180 113,788 87.2% NIR 831,100 755,480 75,620 90.9% Visayas Total 4,076,309 3,767,391 308,918 92.4% ARMM 514,592 199,373 315,219 38.7% CARAGA 607,700 570,025 37,675 93.8% IX 655,300 476,510 178,790 72.7% X 1,039,243 837,560 201,683 80.6% XI 1,076,655 771,250 305,405 71.6% XII 947,816 649,234 298,582 68.5% Mindanao Total 4,841,306 3,503,952 1,337,354 72.4% Philippines 22,721,430 20,360,334 2,361,096 89.6%
Coordinating the Government’s overall The HOUSE team will assist in the implementation electrification efforts is being undertaken by the of all policy measures and strategies as well as the Household Unified Strategic Electrification (HOUSE) management and monitoring of all the programs Team. It was created by virtue of Department and activities as embodied under the Household Circular (DC) 2014-09-0018 issued in 29 September Electrification Development Plan (HEDP) with the 2014. DOE chairs the team with NEA and NPC overall purpose of achieving the policy goal of sitting as co-chairs. Members that comprise the attaining 90% HH electification by 2017 and full HOUSE team include representatives coming from electricity access in the country by 2040. The HOUSE DOE, NEA, NPC-SPUG, Department of Budget and Team will further develop specific guidelines and/ Management and Department of Interior and or review and recommend revision on existing Local Government. Ensuring that the Government policies related to household electrification in attains its 90 percent household electrification by order to improve their effectiveness in achieving 2017 is one of the Team’s key functions. specific goals such as 100% electrification of identified household in areas accessible to grid of
32 POWER DEVELOPMENT PLAN, 2016 2040
Five Year Performance Assessment, 2011-2015 the country as well as on how to fully achieve the 2. Barangay Line Enhancement Program 100% electrification of households situated in off- (BLEP) grid areas. One of NEA’s programs that aim to rehabilitate Under the HEDP, there are several sub-program barangays which have been energized components aiding the Government’s umbrella previously by off-grid solutions (diesel program of household electrification. These generator sets and solar photovoltaic) but were programs are delineated in terms of target or focus deemed unsustainable. The program focuses areas i.e. grid or off-grid and are all contributing only on those off-grid barangays that are and in support to the overall goal of attaining 90% already economically feasible for distribution household electrification by 2017. line extension.
• Grid Electri cation From 2011 to 2015, 619 barangays benefitted from the program with a total program cost of 1. Sitio Electri cation Program (SEP) PhP 1,814.53 million. For 2016, 254 are targeted with an estimated cost of PhP 1,204.80 million. In 2011, NEA established the Sitio Electrification Program (SEP) wherein the commitment was Based on the latest memorandum issued by to energize 32,441 sitios. From the onset of SEP NEA, the following are the interventions used in 2011 to March 2016, NEA was able to surpass to extend the distribution line to the targeted its target by energizing 32,688 sitios translating BLEP barangays (i) Submarine cables, and (ii) to 100.8 percent accomplishment in the SEP Improvement of Tapping points (Upgrading Roadmap (Table 16). the distribution lines to be able to further extend the distribution line). After accomplishing the targeted 32, 441 Sitios, NEA still have sitios to electrify for the 3. Energy Regulations (ER) 1-94 years 2016 and 2017. For 2016, NEA have target total of additional 3,150 sitios where 1,151 The Department serves as administrator of were in Luzon, 959 sitios in Visayas and 1,040 ER 1-94 which has three (3) fund components sitios in Mindanao. As of October 12, 2016, – electrification fund (EF), development 91 percent or 2,863 of the target sitios area and livelihood fund (DLF), and reforestation, already energized. watershed management, health and/or
Table 16. Sitio Electri cation Program (SEP) Roadmap 2016 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 (as of March) % Accomplishment 4.7 23.7 39.9 63.2 95.2 100.8
Target Sitios 1,410 6,007 5,831 7,073 7,092 1,567
Energized Sitios 1,520 6,163 5,263 7,567 10,361 1,814 Total Sitios Energized 7,683 12,946 20,513 30,874 32,688 (cumulative)
33 POWER DEVELOPMENT PLAN, 2016 2040
environment enhancement fund (RWMHEEF) – 4. Nationwide Intensi cation of Household utilized for host communities to promote growth Electri cation (NIHE) and advancement in their respective areas. The NIHE is one of DOE’s locally-funded For the electrification program, DOE shall projects (LFP). Approved in 2014, the project effectively administer Electrification Fund of ER will run for three (3) years (2015-2017). It has the 1-94 in bringing electricity to all households, objective of developing and implementing prioritizing the host cities/municipalities specific measures and financial incentives by implementing both grid and off-grid (i.e. grant assistance) to mobilize DU’s in fast- electrification projects. tracking connections of their remaining unelectrified households. The DOE is currently undertaking the “ER For the grant assistance, the
1-94 Rationalization of The NIHE is one of program shall provide house- 2011-2015 Assessment, Performance Year Five Electrification Fund Leading DOE’s locally-funded wiring subsidy amounting to towards 100% Electrification projects (LFP). It Php 3,750 to poor and qualified has the objective of Host Community Targets of developing and household situated to areas/ (ER 1-94 REFLECT Program).” implementing sitios where the distribution lines The objective of the program speci c measures and of the DU is physically available. is to conduct technical and nancial incentives For 2015, the DOE approved financial viability assessment (i.e. grant assistance) a total of 30,512 Household of potential electricity service to mobilize DU’s beneficiaries with a total amout in fasttracking solutions that will result to connections of of PhP 114.42 million and will be provision of electrification their remaining implemented by 22 participating projects funded under unelectri ed distribution utilities. For 2016, the ER 1-94 EF for the rural households. DOE approved a total of 116,592 development of Host Household beneficiaries with a Communities of the country. total amout of PhP 437.9 million At total of 259 Host Communities (144 in Luzon, and will be implemented by 20 participating 53 in Visayas and 62 in Mindanao) were already distribution utilities. For 2017 another 183,000 identified based on the current list of installed household beneficiaries is target by the generation facilities in the country. program.
As for the completed projects funded under Also, the DOE have successfully conducted ER 1-94 EF, around 1,258 (1,218 are grid a 9-Leg series of NIHE Project Development and 40 are off-grid) sitios/barangays with Workshop with Luzon, Visayas and Mindanao an equivalent household connection of DUs. The said workshop provided the interested 30,332 were energized from 2011 – July 2015. DUs the information to effectively implement The total approved project cost for these the program in their franchise areas. sitios/barangays was at PhP1,408.5 million. The Department targets to complete the Aside from the grant assistance provided to electrification projects and benefits annually qualified household beneficiaries, the NIHE at least 3,000HH within the host communities. programs also aims to provide the following
34 POWER DEVELOPMENT PLAN, 2016 2040
Five Year Performance Assessment, 2011-2015 Technical assistance (i) Streamlining of Aid (GPOBA), organized the first Philippines connection process; (ii) LGU-DU partnership Offgrid Electrification Expo held at SMX MOA, for assistance in connection permits; and (iii) Pasay City from September 21-23, 2016 and Policy support to address the issue of slum participated in by international and local PV electrification and flying connections, among suppliers. The participants of this Expo had others. the opportunities to learn more about the incentive program demonstrate their off-grid • O -Grid Electri cation products, network with international off-grid industry leaders (e.g., distributors of Lighting 1. Household Electri cation Program (HEP) Global certified products and 2015-16 Global using renewable energy (RE) systems LEAP Awards Winners and Finalists), meet with local electricity cooperatives to explore ways The HEP involves the energization of off-grid to conduct business in the growing off-grid households using mature RE technologies which market. include photovoltaic solar home system (PV-SHS), PV streetlights and micro-hydro systems. From Meanwhile, the Energy Regulatory Commission 2011 to 2015, a total of 22,904 off-grid households (ERC) approved in 25 October 2016, the gained electricity access thru the program. benchmark tariff for SHS to be adopted by the ECs as follows: 2. Solar PV Mainstreaming (under Access to Sustainable Energy Program or ASEP) Table 17. Benchmark Tari for Solar Home System (SHS) This PVM project is co-financed by the EU- Philippines “Access to Sustainable Energy SHS Zone A Zone B Zone C Programme” (ASEP), DOE, participating Electric Capacity Cooperatives and the recipient households. 50 Wp 207 215 222 It targets 40,500 households for the next three (3) years to be provided with solar PV 30 Wp 180 187 195 electrification as a utility service offering by the Electric Cooperatives. To date, eight (8) ECs The Benchmark SHS Tariff is the best have committed to participate in the Project. approximation of the operating costs an EC Activities undertaken over the past months incurs in providing electricity service to all SHS include (a) market segmentation through Customers, including the cost of maintaining remote sensing and geo-tagging of potential and replacing the SHS components as households beneficiaries, (b) firming up the necessary, and both direct and indirect service packages and technical specifications of overhead costs (ie., salaries, transportation the products to be offered to the households; cost, etc). (c) establishing the PV supply chain; and (d) creation of the Solar Business Unit (SBUs) within The costs of servicing SHS for more remote the ECs organizational structure. and difficult to reach areas shall be considered through an incremental cost adjustment that Of recent events, ASEP through the World will apply to SHS Customers in such areas. Bank and Global Partnership on Output-based This adjustment will be common across
35 POWER DEVELOPMENT PLAN, 2016 2040
all ECs serving SHS Customers in the same sales. To date, overall installed capacity is defined zones, referring to the distance of 1.10MW covering the highest recorded peak SHS customers from the EC’s main office, the demand of 660kW. The average system loss farthest (Zone C) as the highly mountainous is 10%. areas and islands/islets. To date, there were 680 remaining 3. Quali ed Third Party (QTP) Program unelectrified households which can be classified as informal settlers as they do Under Sec. 59 of EPIRA, areas deemed unviable not have permanent residencies. PSPI is and waived by the DUs may be offered to coordinating with the LGU and DOE on how QTPs as part of the missionary electrification to provide electricity to these households. program. There is now a growing interest among private sector to enter into QTP In regard to the Biomass Plant, testing and
operations with the entry of the renewables commissioning was completed last February 2011-2015 Assessment, Performance Year Five in offgrid electrification. Said interest was 2016 and now operating with a dependable generated by the various incentives offered capacity of 10 kW. There are modifications to private sector among which is the still to be made on the gasifier to meet the cash generation based incentive per kWh target output of 50 kW due to the very low generated, equivalent to 50% of the Universal output. Gasifier is undergoing upgrading Charge (UC) in the area where it operates. including the purchase of blower with Hence, the program anticipates the future a higher capacity to supply enough gas development of mini-grid and micro-grid required by the gas engine to operate at electrification projects using solar, biomass, 100% load. wind and other renewable energy sources by other proponents that may also adopt QTP In order to provide efficient and reliable approach. service and serve more customers, PSPI completed the following activities, Following are the updates on the QTP Program namely: a) Extension of line in Kinurong; being spearheaded by the DOE: b) Commissioning of 350 kW in April 2016; c) Macadam Road pole relocation in a. Rio Tuba QTP Project in Bataraza, September 2016; and d) replacement of Palawan overloaded distribution transformer and splitting of transformer load to achieve a PowerSource Philippines, Inc. (PSPI) balanced system for system improvement. continues to operate as QTP in Barangay Rio Tuba. For the reporting period, the average b. Malapascua QTP Project in Malapascua monthly electricity generation reached Island, Logon, DaanBantayan, Cebu 295,599 kWh and the average monthly electricity sales is 264,647 kWh, indicating an PSPI continues to operate its existing increase of about 7.69% & 7.0% respectively generating facility in the island. For the as compared with the last year’s report reporting period, the average net electricity (for 6 months period from March 2015 to generation was 170,501 kWh per month and September 2015) electricity generation and the average electricity sales was 159,872
36 POWER DEVELOPMENT PLAN, 2016 2040
Five Year Performance Assessment, 2011-2015 kWh. There was a significant increase of 2012. In February 2013, a Master Agreement about 18.12% in generation and 22.82% in was signed between PGP and PSPI to take- sales showing the continuous growth of over the management and operations in demand in the area. In June 2016, a new nine (9) areas including. Consequently, an genset was installed with a capacity 500 kW Alliance with Palawan Electric Cooperative, in replacement of genset no.3. The installed Inc. (PALECO) was signed in November capacity now is 1.2 MW. Highest recorded 2013 for the electrification of remote and peak demand is 440kW and the average unviable areas through the QTP Program of system loss is 6.26%. which these areas were also included.
For the reporting period, 40 additional On August 2016, PSPI received the ERC’s households were electrified, a 3.26% increase order for the Provisional Authority (PA). in the past six (6) months. Based on the In the Order, the ERC granted the SARR barangay records, out of 1,227 households in equivalent to PhP9.12/kWh. the island, 1,007 are connected to the mini grid system, achieving 82.07% electrification Currently, the total number of customers is level. The remaining 220 households are 705 which results to 78% electrification level targeted to the connected to the grid within and expected to increase due to upcoming the next 2-3 years. line extensions. The installed capacity is 310 kW and has a recorded peak demand of In June 2016, the final decision with regard 80 kW with an average loss is 13.63%. PSPI to PSPI’s application for Malapascua was has an on-going replacement of defective issued by ERC. On the Su bsidized Approved household kilowatt-hour meters and Retail Rate (SARR), the ERC granted a 2-tier upgrading of distribution system to reduce tariff as follows: the losses.
• For consumers with monthly From March to September 2016, the average consumption of 40kWh or lower, the monthly net electricity generation is 21,953 SARR is PhP12/kWh. kWh and the average monthly electricity • For consumers with monthly sale is 18,960 kWh. consumption higher than 40kWh, the SARR is Php15kWh. The operating hours was gradually increased from 8-12-14 hours and now reaching the On August 2016, PSPI has complied with NPC’s 20 hour operation (6AM to 2AM). PSPI is Subsidy Protocol Payment with the installation expecting a 24/7 operation on the fourth of NPC Billing Meter on project site. quarter of 2016 as soon as the new gensets are installed and commissioned. c. Liminangcong, Taytay, Palawan d. Brgy. Cabayugan , Puerto Princesa City The mini-grid systems in these barangays were funded by the Provincial Government On 05 October 2016, ERC approved the: (i) of Palawan (PGP) and operated by a application of Sabang Renewable Energy Barangay Power Association from 1995- Corporation (SREC) for Authority to Operate
37 POWER DEVELOPMENT PLAN, 2016 2040
(ATO) as a Qualified Third Party (QTP) in Barangay Cabayugan, Puerto Princesa City, Palawan and (ii) correspondingly, its QTP Service and Subsidy Agreement (QSSA) with the National Power Corporation (NPC).
The Project comprises a 1.404 (Solar PV), 2.363 (battery), and 1.280 (four (4) gensets@320kW diesel) to be installed in year 1 and additional capacities to be installed in succeeding years as the energy demand increases in the area.
e. Other QTP Projects: 2011-2015 Assessment, Performance Year Five
ERC still has to issue its approval on the application of PowerSource Philippines, Inc. (PSPI) for the following QTP Projects: (a) Balut Island comprising seven (7) barangays in Sarangani, Davao Occidental; and, (b) Brgy. Candawaga and Culasian, Municipality of Rizal, Palawan.
On the other hand, the DOE expects to receive the technical and financial proposals for the potential QTPs for the following areas:
• Sixty-six (66) Sitios in the Province of Apayao; • Lahuy Island, Municipality of Caramoan, Camarines Sur (with 4 barangays, namely Gata, Oring, Daraga, and Gogon); • Haponan Island in the same Municipality; • Quinasalag Island in the Municipality of Garchitorena, Camarines Sur (with 8 barangays, as follows: Dangla, Binagasbasan, Burabod, Cagamutan, Mansangat, Tamiawon, Cagnipa, and Sumaoy); and, • Semirara Island in the Municipality of Caluya, Antique (with 3 barangays)
38 Angat Hydroelectric Power Plant - Angat Hydropower Corp. Hydropower - Angat Plant Power Hydroelectric Angat Ltd. Co., Development - Electric Plant Power Power Hydroelectric Storage Pumped 739.2MW Kalayaan Sibulan, Inc. - HEDCOR Plant Power 42.6MW Sibulan Hydroelectric T-D: T-D: Demand-Supply Outlook, 2016-2040 the three main grids. saleselectricity and peak demand forecasts for 14 shows the steps in coming up with the Figure assumptions. valid and methodology use accuratethe of input data, appropriate requires shortcomings these To address supply. exceed would demand when shortfalls while under projection could result to capacity sector thereby entailing wastes and inefficiency, over investments especially on the generation to lead could projection demand High demand. future reinforcements to meet transmission and distribution and investments generation necessary the as well as requirements power forecast will determine country’s the future planningsystem and development as this load demandelectricity forecast is crucial in power preparationThe of an accurate and acceptable AND ASSUMPTIONS FORECASTING METHODOLOGY DEMANDELECTRICITY N Private Utilities Private ew I Cooperatives Generators Non Embedded Embedded customers customers ndustry / Electric - utility utility Customers
Figure andPeak Sales DemandForecast 14.Electricity N ew Industry / Customers / Industry ew Development Development Report DU’s M Distribution Distribution Operations Plan onthly / MFSR
.Data Collection 1. C. B. A. 2016-2040: for scenario collected to as serve the reference forecast Actual 2015 data on the following were • • • • • • • Power Market
Assessment each utility of Forecast / Statistics Delivery Power NGCP Peak System Factor Load Generation Historical eachof utility Sales Historical Customers or directly-connected industries, industries, directly-connected or Customers Utilities (DUs), to Distribution Non-Utility Corporation Philippines the of (NGCP) Power Delivered by the National Grid Administration (NEA); and (NEA); Administration National Electrification (ECs) the thru (MFSR) Cooperatives submitted by Electric Report Statistical and Financial Monthly and from the MOR submitted by private DUs sourced Consumption and Sales Electricity (GOU) Customers; Generation and Utility Economic Zones, Government Owned their Monthly Operations (MOR); Report (GenCos) Companies through Generation by submitted Power Generation POWER DEVELOPMENT PLAN, 2016 2040
Energy Generation Generation Energy Demand Forecast Demand System Sales Sales System System Peak Peak System Forecast Forecast
40
Demand-Supply Outlook, 2016-2040 0.7 0.7 0.7 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 74.6 71.6 72.6 to-GRDP Elasticity Electricity- 7.00 7.00 7.00 Growth Growth Rate (%) Rate High GDP 2017 2017 2017 2018 - 2020 8.00 2021 - 2040 7.50 2018 - 2020 8.00 2021 - 2040 7.50 2018 - 2020 8.00 2021 - 2040 7.50 Assumptions by Grid, 2016-2030 Grid, by Assumptions Grid SU/TL (%) (%) Factor Load Luzon 7.15 Visayas 5.88 Grid Year Table 18. Energy and Economic Growth Growth and Economic 18. Energy Table Luzon Mindanao 3.84 Visayas Mindanao By 2040, peak demand is expected to increase increase expected to is demand peak By 2040, to 2015 in MW 12,213 from times four about by growth GDP high the 2040 under in MW 49,287 a 6 percent to translated is increase This scenario. 2040. to 2016 from rate growth average annual have to projected is Mindanao basis, grid a per On 8 percent, at growth average annual highest the 5 at Luzon and 7 percent at Visayas by followed percent. Table 19. SU/TL and Load Factor Assumptions Factor 19. SU/TL and Load Table 3. Demand Forecasting Peak 2015 actual the forecasts, sales energy the From (TL) are Losses transmission and (SU) Use Station From generation. gross the with up come to added forecasts demand peak the generation, gross this is which approach factor load the using derived are 2015. for factor load actual the on based also scenario. scenario. while the elasticity adopted for for the elasticity adopted while 30 at 7 to 8 percent and the electricity the and 8 percent 7 to at Other relevant data such as station use, use, station as such data relevant Other transmission losses, peak demandand DOE. the by gathered factor load of Luzon, Visayas and Mindanao based based Mindanao and Visayas Luzon, of By 2040, peak demand is 28 29 four times from 12,213 MW 12,213 MW times from four
under the high GDP growth under the high GDP growth in 2015 to 49,287 MW in 2040 in 2015 to D. Electricity Demand Sales and Peak Forecasts expected to increase by about by increase expected to Some annual values were not included in the computation isolate the to effects of extreme weather occurrences such Niño as El and Typhoon and GlobalYolanda Financial Crisis DBCC is composed is DBCC of the Department of Budget and Management Department (DBM), of Finance (DOF), National Economic and Development Authority and Office (NEDA) of the President (OP) Ratio of electricity consumption and GRDP growth rate POWER DEVELOPMENT PLAN, 2016 2040 PLAN, DEVELOPMENT POWER consumption to gross regional domestic product regional gross to consumption (GRDP) Mindanao is pegged at 1.0 to account for the the for account to 1.0 pegged at is Mindanao suppressedelectricity demand and insufficient elasticity This years. previous the during supply demand of anticipation in 1.0 at fixed also is level years coming the for region the in expansion side of large operation the commercial by brought 2015. starting plants generation power on historical trend were used and applied to the the to applied and used were trend historical on the with up come to electricity sales 2015 actual GDP high This forecasts. electricity sales baseline goal long-term the with aligned is forecast growth income in increase and industrialization towards electricity demand. higher to lead which capita per actual 2015 2004 of to average The historical Luzon for used was electricity-to-GRDP elasticity and Visayas 2. the of projection growth GDP Thehigh Committee Coordination Budget Development (DBCC) 28 29 30 41
Demand-Supply Outlook, 2016-2040 * Actual 2016 2016 May as of * Actual Demand Peak 2036 2035 2034 2033 2032 2031 2030 2029 2028 2027 2040 2026 2021 2020 2019 2018 2017 2016 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011 2039 2025 2038 2024 2037 2023 2022 erLuzon Year Table Peak 20.Grid DemandForecast, 2016-2040(inMW) 24,616 23,457 22,353 21,301 20,298 12,000 11,451 10,895 10,368 19,342 18,432 17,564 16,739 15,955 29,852 15,210 28,447 14,501 27,108 13,828 25,832 13,187 12,579 9,726* 9,870 8,928 8,717 8,305 7,889 7,552 Visayas FORECAST ACTUAL 1,878* 6,624 6,202 5,806 5,436 5,089 4,765 2,633 2,465 2,298 2,143 1,997 1,768 1,636 1,572 1,551 1,481 4,461 4,176 3,910 9,210 3,661 8,622 3,427 8,072 3,209 7,558 3,004 7,076 2,812 idnoPhilippines Mindanao POWER DEVELOPMENT PLAN, 2016 2040 10,225 7,122 6,625 6,163 5,733 5,333 4,961 2,588 2,407 2,229 2,064 1,911 1,517 1,469 1,428 1,321 1,346 1,786 4,615 4,293 3,993 3,715 9,512 3,456 8,848 3,215 8,231 2,990 7,656 2,782 37,203 35,180 33,270 31,467 17,221 16,323 15,422 14,575 13,778 12,213 11,822 11,305 10,761 10,379 13,390 29,764 28,158 26,640 25,208 23,858 49,287 22,586 46,581 21,384 44,028 20,252 41,621 19,181 39,348 18,173 42
Demand-Supply Outlook, 2016-2040 9,107 7,743 6,484 5,357 4,138 3,169 2,887 2,805 2,705 2,605 Addition, MW Addition, Total Capacity Capacity Total 9,837 31,295 9,301 28,652 8,795 26,159 8,318 23,783 7,867 21,480 7,441 19,309 7,039 17,338 6,660 15,402 6,302 13,671 5,965 12,152 5,646 10,603 5,346 5,063 4,795 4,543 4,305 4,081 3,855 3,644 3,445 3,347 Reserve (25% Peak (25% Peak Requirement Requirement Demand), MW and solar photovoltaic (PV) power plants were were plants (PV) power photovoltaic solar and which plants mid-merit power For considered. and baseload than operation in flexible more are cheaper than peaking plants, new natural gas-fired simulation. the in included were plants power secure, ensure reliable and sufficient supplyTo a as set was baseload percent a 70 electricity, of minimum requirement for capacity addition from 2016-2040. Power Demand-Supply Outlook, 2016-2040 Power electricity the projected meet demand To system the power including reserve requirement, capacity will need by addition that the Philippines 25,265 as follows: 2040 is 43,765 MW broken down mid-merit and 14,500 MW for baseload, MW for peaking. 4,000 MW for System Peak Peak System Demand, MW Demand, 4,078 49,287 12,322 43,765 4,078 46,581 11,645 40,350 4,078 44,028 11,007 37,185 4,078 41,620 10,405 34,170 4,078 39,348 4,078 37,204 4,078 35,180 4,078 33,270 4,078 31,467 4,078 29,765 4,078 28,158 4,078 26,640 4,078 25,209 4,078 23,859 4,078 22,585 4,078 21,384 4,078 20,251 4,078 19,182 4,078 18,173 4,078 17,221 4,078 16,323 3,670 15,422 3,297 14,575 2,325 13,778 1,289 13,390 Total Total Committed Committed Capacity, MW Capacity, 13,877 13,877 13,877 13,877 13,877 13,877 13,877 13,877 13,877 13,877 13,877 13,877 13,877 13,877 13,877 13,877 13,877 13,877 13,877 13,877 13,877 13,877 13,877 13,877 13,877 Available Available Total Existing Existing Total Capacity, MW Capacity, Table 21. Philippines Required Power System Capacity Addition, 2016-2040 Addition, Capacity System Power Required 21. Philippines Table Year 2039 2038 2037 2036 2035 2034 2033 2032 2031 2030 2029 2028 2040 2027 2026 2025 2024 2023 2022 2021 2020 2019 2018 2017 2016 SUPPLY EXPANSION PLAN EXPANSION SUPPLY Supply Expansion Plan Methodology Plan Supply Expansion and Assumptions type per surplus/deficit annual the determine To and midrange (baseload, operation plant of reserve plus forecast demand peak the peaking), peak of percent 25 at set is which requirement, average existing the from subtracted was demand, and 2015 December of as capacity available 2016. July of as capacities committed continuous, provide that plants power Baseload as such cost low at power efficient and reliable coal, existing natural gas, geothermal, biomass, were plants power hydroelectric baseload and provide which plants peaking power For accounted. wind oil-based, period, demand high during power POWER DEVELOPMENT PLAN, 2016 2040 PLAN, DEVELOPMENT POWER 43
Demand-Supply Outlook, 2016-2040 High GDP Scenario (8% GDP; 25% Reserve Requirement)
Capacity Addition MW THE PHILIPPINES WILL NEED Baseload 25,265 43,765 MW ADDITIONAL 65,000 Mid-merit 14,500 CAPACITY BY 2040 60,000 Peaking 4,000 55,000 TOTAL 43,765 50,000
45,000
40,000 70% Baseload 35,000 Requirement 30,000
25,000 MW 20,000 AAGR = 5.7% 15,000
10,000
5,000
0 2016 20172019 2018 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040
Capacity Addition - Peaking0 0 0 0 0 0 150 250 300 450 450 550 650 950 1,150 1,250 1,550 1,900 2,100 2,400 2,650 2,950 3250 3600 4,000
Capacity Addition - Midmerit2,500 2,600 2,700 2,700 2,900 3,600 4,400 5,000 5,400 5,700 6,200 6,600 7,000 7,300 7,800 8,300 8,800 9,300 10,000 10,500 11,200 12,000 12,700 13,500 14,500
Capacity Addition - Baseload105 105 105 187 269 538 807 1,234 2,043 2,957 3,953 5,002 6,021 7,152 8,388 9,759 11,130 12,583 14,059 15,752 17,445 19,220 21,235 23,250 25,265
Committed Peaking 37 66 77 110 111 111 111 111 111 111 111 111 111 111 111 111 111 111 111 111 111 111 111 111 111 POWER DEVELOPMENT PLAN, 2016 2040
Committed Midmerit 402 876 876 876 876 876 876 876 876 876 876 876 876 876 876 876 876 876 876 876 876 876 876 876 876
Committed Baseload 850 1,383 2,343 2,683 3,091 3,091 3,091 3,091 3,091 3,091 3,091 3,091 3,091 3,091 3,091 3,091 3,091 3,091 3,091 3,091 3,091 3,091 3,091 3,091 3,091
Existing Peaking 2,600 2,600 2,600 2,600 2,600 2,600 2,600 2,600 2,600 2,600 2,600 2,600 2,600 2,600 2,600 2,600 2,600 2,600 2,600 2,600 2,600 2,600 2,600 2,600 2,600
Existing Midmerit 0000000000000000000000000
Existing Baseload 11,277 11,277 11,277 11,277 11,277 11,277 11,277 11,277 11,277 11,277 11,277 11,277 11,277 11,277 11,277 11,277 11,277 11,277 11,277 11,277 11,277 11,277 11,277 11,277 11,277
Reserve Requirement 3,347 3,445 3,644 3,855 4,081 4,305 4,543 4,795 5,063 5,346 5,646 5,965 6,302 6,660 7,039 7,441 7,867 8,318 8,795 9,301 9,837 10,405 11,007 11,645 12,322
System Peak Demand 13,390 13,778 14,575 15,422 16,323 17,221 18,173 19,182 20,251 21,384 22,585 23,859 25,209 26,640 28,158 29,765 31,467 33,270 35,180 37,204 39,348 41,620 44,028 46,581 49,287
70% baseload Reqt 11,716 12,056 12,753 13,494 14,282 15,069 15,901 16,784 17,720 18,711 19,762 20,876 22,057 23,310 24,638 26,044 27,534 29,111 30,783 32,553 34,429 36,418 38,525 40,758 43,126
44 Figure 15. Philippines Demand-Supply Outlook, 2016-2040
Demand-Supply Outlook, 2016-2040 8,945 7,920 6,980 6,005 5,165 4,275 3,485 2,750 2,000 1,500 1,500 1,500 1,500 1,500 2039 2040 Committed Baseload Committed 70% baseload Reqt 2038 Addition, MW Addition, Total Capacity Capacity Total 2037 2036 7,463 24,385 7,112 22,605 6,777 20,925 6,458 19,345 6,154 17,800 5,864 16,355 5,588 15,010 5,325 13,700 5,074 12,390 4,836 11,180 4,608 10,070 4,391 4,185 3,989 3,802 3,625 3,457 3,297 3,145 3,000 2,863 2,724 2,592 2,467 2,432 2035 System Peak Demand Peak System Committed Midmerit Committed 2034 Reserve 2033 (25% Peak (25% Peak Requirements Requirements Demand), MW 2032 2031 9,870 9,726 Reserve Requirement 2030 2029 a total of 24,385 MW capacity addition in the MW capacity of 24,385 a total in the addition capacity Considering existing available the grid. capacity 2020, including the committed up to will start capacity need additional Luzon to by 2023. 2028 System Peak Peak System Demand, MW Demand, 2027 2026 569 2,650 29,852 2,650 28,447 2,650 27,108 2,650 25,832 2,650 24,616 2,650 23,457 2,650 22,353 2,650 21,301 2,650 20,298 2,650 19,342 2,650 18,432 2,650 17,564 2,650 16,739 2,650 15,955 2,650 15,210 2,650 14,501 2,650 13,828 2,650 13,187 2,650 12,579 2,650 12,000 2,650 11,.451 2,241 10,895 1,871 10,368 1,442 Existing Baseload 2025 Total Total 2024 Commited Commited 2023 Capacity, MW Capacity, 2022 2021 10,361 10,361 10,361 10,361 10,361 10,361 10,361 10,361 10,361 10,361 10,361 10,361 10,361 10,361 10,361 10,361 10,361 10,361 Existing Midmerit 10,361 10,361 10,361 10,361 10,361 10,361 10,361 Figure 16. Luzon Demand-Supply Outlook, Demand-Supply 2016-2040 16. Luzon Figure 2020 2019 Table 22. Luzon Required Annual Capacity Addition, 2016-2040 Addition, Capacity Annual Required 22. Luzon Table Capacity Available Available 2018 Total Existing Existing Total 2017 2016 Existing Peaking Capacity Addition - PeakingCapacity Addition - Midmerit Capacity Addition - Baseload Capacity Addition Peaking Committed 0 2040 Year 2039 2038 2037 2036 2035 2034 2033 2032 2031 2030 2029 2028 2027 2026 2025 2024 2023 2022 2021 2020 2019 2018 2017 2016
6,000 2,000 8,000 4,000
20,000 36,000 16,000 32,000 24,000 12,000 10,000 40,000 28,000 26,000 18,000 34,000 14,000 30,000 22,000 38,000 MW POWER DEVELOPMENT PLAN, 2016 2040 PLAN, DEVELOPMENT POWER Luzon grid’s peak demand by 2040 is expected expected is 2040 demand by peak grid’s Luzon MW 29,852 to 2016 in MW 9,726 triple from to this expected electricityWith demand 2040. by 13,635 MW will be needing the grid growth, 8,300 MW of mid-merit of baseload capacity, capacity and 2,450 MW peaking capacity with 45
Demand-Supply Outlook, 2016-2040 MW of baseload, 3,000 MW of mid-merit, and additional capacities are broken down into 5,330 requirements of 25% of the peak demand. These considering ahigh GDP Scenario of 8% and reserve MW of additional capacity from 2016 to 2040 VisayasThe grid will needing be atotal of 9,180
MW 10,000 11,000 13,000 12,000 1,000 4,000 2,000 3,000 5,000 7,000 8,000 9,000 6,000 Year 0 aaiyAdto ekn aaiyAdto imrtCpct diin-Bsla Committed Peaking Addition Capacity -Baseload Addition Capacity -Midmerit AdditionCapacity -Peaking Existing Peaking 2016 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040 2017 2018 Total Existing Available Capacity Table 23. Visayas Required Annual Capacity Addition, 2016-2040 2019 2020 Figure 17. Visayas 2016-2040 Demand-Supply Outlook, Existing Midmerit 2,019 2,019 2,019 2,019 2,019 2,019 2,019 2,019 2,019 2,019 2,019 2,019 2,019 2,019 2,019 2,019 2,019 2,019 2,019 2,019 2,019 2,019 2,019 2,019 2,019 2021 2022 Capacity, MW 2023 Commited 2024 Total 2025 Existing Baseload 225 248 343 343 343 343 343 343 343 343 343 343 343 343 343 343 343 343 343 343 343 343 343 2026 343 343 2027 Demand, MW System Peak 2028 demand and reserve requirements. reserve and demand additional capacity starting 2017 to meet future its peak demand forecast, Visayas will needing be an annual average growth rate of 6.9% for the 850 MW of peaking capacity requirements. With 2029 2030 Reserve Requirement Reserve 1,878 1,997 2,143 2,298 2,465 2,633 2,812 3,004 3,209 3,427 3,661 3,910 4,176 4,461 4,765 5,089 5,436 5,806 6,202 6,624 7,076 7,558 8,072 8,622 9,210 2031 2032 Demand), MW Requirements (25% Peak 2033 Reserve Reserve POWER DEVELOPMENT PLAN, 2016 2040 2034 Committed Midmerit System Peak Demand 2035 1,044 1,115 1,191 1,272 1,359 1,452 1,550 1,656 1,769 1,889 2,018 2,156 2,302 470 499 536 575 616 658 703 751 802 857 915 978 2036 2037 Total Capacity Addition, MW 2038 70% baseloadReqt Committed Baseload 092040 2039 1,228 1,392 1,574 1,838 2,002 2,348 2,612 2,876 3,222 3,618 4,014 4,460 4,938 5,434 5,962 6,490 7,100 7,760 8,420 9,180 500 600 700 782 964 46
Demand-Supply Outlook, 2016-2040 - - - 910 705 605 605 605 605 5,715 5,145 4,630 4,115 3,650 3,235 2,875 2,560 2,250 1,940 1,630 1,425 1,215 9,325 8,500 7,725 7,005 6,335 2039 2040 Committed Baseload Committed 70% baseload Reqt 2038 Addition, MW Addition, Total Capacity Capacity Total 2037 2036 998 929 864 804 748 695 647 602 557 516 478 446 1,781 1,656 1,541 1,433 1,333 1,240 1,154 1,073 2,556 10,200 2,378 2,212 2,058 1,914 2035 Committed Midmerit Committed System Peak Demand Peak System 2034 Reserve 2033 (25% Peak (25% Peak Requirements Requirements Demand), MW 2032 2031 293 Reserve Requirement 7,122 3,325 6,163 5,733 5,333 4,961 4,615 3,993 3,715 3,456 3,215 2,990 2,782 2,588 2,407 9,512 2,229 8,848 2,064 8,231 1,911 7,656 1,786 2030 2029 MW of mid-merit capacity and 700 MW of peak of MW 700 and capacity mid-merit of MW rate growth average annual an With capacity. ing con the with and forecast demand the for 7.6% of re reserve as demand peak 25% the to sideration quirement,Mindanao will need additional capacity 2016. year the starting 2028 System Peak Peak System Demand, MW Demand, 2027 - 2026 636 495 Existing Baseload 1,086 1,086 1,086 1,086 1,086 1,086 1,086 1,086 1,086 1,086 1,086 1,086 1,086 1,086 1,086 1,086 10,225 1,086 1,086 1,086 1,086 1,082 1,086 1,086 2025 2024 Total Total Commited Commited 2023 Capacity, MW Capacity, 2022 2021 Existing Midmerit 2020 Figure 18. Mindanao Demand-Supply Outlook, 2016-2040 Figure 2019 Capacity Available Available Table 24. Mindanao Required Annual Capacity Addition, 2016-2040 Addition, Capacity 24. Mindanao Annual Required Table 2018 Total Existing Existing Total 2017 2016 Existing Peaking 2035 1,497 2034 1,497 2033 1,497 2032 1,497 Capacity Addition - PeakingCapacity Addition - Midmerit Capacity Addition - Baseload Capacity Addition Peaking Committed 2031 1,497 2030 1,497 2029 1,497 2028 1,497 2027 1,497 2026 1,497 2025 1,497 2024 1,497 2023 1,497 2022 1,497 2021 1,497 2040 1,497 2020 1,497 2039 1,497 2019 1,497 2038 1,497 2018 1,497 2037 1,497 2017 1,497 2036 1,497 2016 1,497 0
4,000 6,000 9,000 8,000 7,000 5,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 Year 12,000 10,000 MW 13,000 11,000 The capacity used for the simulation is based on on based is simulation the for The used capacity Mindanao the of capacity available existing the need a total will Mindanao 2016. June of as grid to 2016 from capacity additional of MW 10,200 of 2040. The additional capacity for Mindanao is di vided into 6,300 MW of baseload capacity, 3,200 3,200 capacity, baseload of MW 6,300 into vided POWER DEVELOPMENT PLAN, 2016 2040 PLAN, DEVELOPMENT POWER 47
Demand-Supply Outlook, 2016-2040 T-D: 6.2MW Centrala Power Solar Plant -NV Vogt Energy Philippines Solar One, Inc. 54MW Pililla Rizal Wind Farm -Alternergy Wind Corp. One 45MW SACASOL Farm ISolar Carlos Energy, -San Solar Inc.
Power Sector Roadmap
GENERATION The DOE will continue to encourage and facilitate to DOE will continue The operationthe timely completion and commercial the generation projects and increase of power formulating plants by power number of merchant that will enable policies and regulations relevant transparencyin the full competition and improved the declaration of DOE will also facilitate sector. as projects of national significance projects power framework.under a legislative the By doing so, prior permitting and approval for process tedious generation operation of power the commercial to and shortened;projects will be streamlined hence, the delivery much needed capacities to of the demand and minimize meet the country’s growing It transactionconcernstax costs. address to aims also make companies to the cost of electricityof power competitive. partAs of its major policy the DOE is also set thrusts, prioritizeto the institutionalization of the appropriate an generation towards mix policy power power for portfoliooptimal electricity24/7 meet to demand with spatial and sectoraland reserve requirement and implement DOE will formulate The dimensions. rewards-and-penalty a fair and transparent policy such as the causers pay system enforce to industryaccountability forced of power for players accelerate access to electricity access to accelerate services craft and energy a sustainable to will redound policies that missionary for roadmap the electrification sector, the direction for a strategic present aims to of missionarycontinuous development in areas securityterms of energy systems, and its associated partnerships, institutional private sector investment, the DOE will Lastly, efficiency. and operational work electricity on expanding continue to access to various programs 2040 through all households by electrificationand projects embodied under the roadmap.
he DOE envisions to implement its policy to envisions he DOE directions whichand strategic thrusts full restructuring and towards geared are T Consistent to the mandate of DOE to expand and of DOE to the mandate to Consistent reform of the electric industry power reform For 2040. by industry: major subsectors of the power the four distributiongeneration, transmission, and supply, for its goals and strategies the DOE identifies the short-,implementation in long- medium-, and for roadmaps Separate term planning horizons. off-grid and missionary household to down areas electrificationtowards plan this in included also are of the electricthe holistic development power continuing embody roadmaps These industry. action plans and future policies and programs and affordable reliable, on ensuring quality, focusing supply;secure electricity; access to expanding and thein field playing level and ensuringtransparent a industry. power the DOE will remain the generation subsector, For supply security, of ensuringfirm its mandate power to adequacy and sustainability inducing by reliability, and pursuing new private investments more supply sources power and emerging technologies mix policy. power with the appropriate consistent In and distributiontransmission the this, of pursuit and reliable adequate subsectors shall provide the supply to deliver be able to infrastructures to sub-sectors also expected three These are end-users. and advanced and efficient technologies utilize to infrastructure taking-offbuild energy-resilient in the short-term the long-term planning horizon. up to the the DOE will push for the supply subsector, For marketattainment of full power independence issuance and the continuous review, through andWESM implementation of policy guidelines on participants increase aims to This in the supply RCOA. sector and clear delineation of the supply between markets. and contestable Institutionalcaptive and support attain mechanisms will be in place to each subsectors. the objectives identified for POWER DEVELOPMENT PLAN, 2016 2040 PLAN, DEVELOPMENT POWER 49
Power Sector Roadmap Generation generation sector. and identificationofappropriate policiesfor the asthebasisfor benchmarking This willserve bottlenecks andinefficienciesintheiroperations. generation companiesto andremove determine assessmentofpower with regular performance ofpowerits dailymonitoring situationalong The DOEhasinitiated andwillcontinueto conduct contractors. forplants andprovide theaccreditation support of to standards international for power constructing their facilities. The DOEwillencouragecompliance power plantsto facilitate maximumoperationof rehabilitation andupgrading oftheirexisting enjoin existinggeneratingcompaniesto undertake Along withtheseinitiatives, theDOEwillcontinueto outages. This ensures more protection to consumers.
• • • • • • • • • • * Required Baseload,Mid Plants Power Merchant including generation power in investments Promote support technical of Provision Periodic projects generation monitoring power of situation power of monitoring daily Conduct Develop resiliency policies for generating assets Review anddevelop power generation related policies including rewards contractors accreditation of and Plants Power for constructing Standards International to Compliance Encourage policies to improve power generation develop and review to order in Assessment/Benchmarking Performance Plant in the Lead spatial and sectoral dimension dimension sectoral and spatial reserve requirementswith and demand electricity24/7 meet optimal*to portfolio towards generation power for policy mix power Institute o o National Significance of Project as Projects Power of declaration the Facilitate operate to licenses and permit business grant of Express Taxes Local and Tax Property Real from Exemption Figure 19.Power 2017-2040, Generation Roadmap Sector (2017 Short-
- 2018) Term POWER SECTORROADMAP
- Merit and Peaking Capacity at least Cost least at Capacity and Peaking Merit
Medium- (2019 •
mix policy. mix power with the etc.) consistent nuclear, cells, fuel technologies for generation power (e.g. ocean, emerging and new of entry the Pursue
- 2022) Term
develop policiesto improve theoperationof the generation facilities inorder to review and ofpower assessment and benchmarking From 2017-2040,theDOEwillleadinperformance demonstration (RD&D)onenergy technologies. research, development and which undertakes research withprivate institutions partnership (PNRI)andreinforceNuclear Research Institute and of Science andPhilippine Technology (DOST) government lineagencies suchastheDepartment DOE willestablishstrong cooperationamong (OTEC), amongothers. To thishappen,the make energyfuel cellsandoceanthermal conversion nuclear technology, energy storage technologies, emerging power generationoptionssuchas and ofnew encourage andfacilitate theentry themediumto theDOEwill longterm, In
- and - penalty system penalty ( Long 2023- POWER DEVELOPMENT PLAN, 2016 2040 - Term 2040
)
OBJECTIVES BY OBJECTIVES OVERALL OVERALL
Ensure quality, reliable, affordable and secure supply 2040 Expand access to electricity
50 Ensure a transparent and fair playing field in the power industry
Power Sector Roadmap
industry industry
Ensure a transparent and fair playing field in the power the in field playing fair and transparent a Ensure
electricity to access Expand
2040 supply secure and affordable reliable, quality, nsure E OVERALL OBJECTIVES BY
)
2040 Term - 1, - 2023 Long - (
Transmission Corporation (TransCo), NGCP the Transmission right the franchise who holds manage and to assets is expected the transmission to operate the of its formulation continuously enhance (TDP)Development Plan Transmission and conduct Impact of the System Study (SIS) to generating in power investors guide for provide siting and further the operation, improve integrity and of the transmission reliability, system. adequate the NGCP must have Conclusively, power uninterrupted reserve ensure capacities to DOE will the generation sector, Similar to supply. likewise performance lead the conduct of regular assessment and benchmarking of transmission inefficiencies address facilities and operations to congestions. and system Term 2022) - (2019
Medium- Monitor interconnection schedule of the Visayas and Mindanao Grids by 2020 and other islands. •
ROADMAP SECTOR POWER Mindanao - Luzon,Visayas, Term 2018) – - grids (e.g. (e.g. grids -
Short- (2017
Figure 20. Power Sector Roadmap 2017-2040, Transmission Sector Roadmap 2017-2040, 20. Power Figure acilitate timely completion of and Mindanao (Leyte Interconnection Project) and interconnectinthe maingrids, emergent Island towards policies Develop adequate contracted capacities forreserves Lead in the transmission Performance Assessment/ orderin to reviewBenchmarking to improve develop policies and transmission F transmissionprojects rulesEnhance and procedures in theconduct ofTransmission SystemImpact Studies (SIS) guideforProvide investors in powergeneration siting through enhance and responsive Transmission Development Plans (TDP) Facilitate interconnection of the three major grids Mindoro) Monitor compliance with theTDP Continue implement transmission systemupgrades expansion and program (complianceN to Increase transmission backbones and alternative transmission corridors grid Luzon toInterconnect Island Mindoro Developresiliency policiestransmission for facilities TDP NGCP’s of approval DOE’s upon Projects Transmission of implementation Immediate Contingency and Load Growth) • • • • • • • • • • • •
TRANSMISSION The timely completion and commissioning of and commissioning of timely completion The transmission infrastructure necessary deliver to electricity a priority end-users remains to of upgrading, the DOE along with the continuous and expansion of existing rehabilitation, substations and other related transmission lines, Under the supervisionfacilities. of the National power plants. In the DOE will also plants. with this, line power international standards compliance to encourage of plants and accreditation constructing power for Itcontractors. resiliency will also develop policies part As assets. all generating of the continuing for conductDOE will the activities, periodic and daily situation demand-supply monitoring of power support. technical and provide POWER DEVELOPMENT PLAN, 2016 2040 PLAN, DEVELOPMENT POWER 51 Transmission
Power Sector Roadmap policies and programs. and policies and adoption energyinfrastructure of resiliency transmission climate-resilient and energy of through development the and construction calamities natural of increasing incidents the with change, the power sector shall able be to cope up In view of the country’s vulnerability to climate implemented. be island grids such as Mindoro is also envisioned to interconnection of the main grids and emergent targeted to implemented be by 2020. Similarly, the is which interconnection Visayas-Mindanao the as monitor the implementation of the as TDP well the increasing demand. will DOE The closely if not eliminate line congestions in view of to lessen corridors transmission alternative and development transmission new of backbones NGCP will jointly undertake the identification and TransCo improvement, system transmission and fromApart the continuing activities underlining accountability of DUs towards an improved Likewise, will DOE develop the and monitor the and facilitate economies in scale their of operation. the services being provided by DUs to their customers CAPEX provisions, among others, to improve further and implementation distribution of facilities through and joint resolutions to facilitate the timely approval policies enabling formulate and Commission (ERC) coordinationits with the Energy Regulatory programs. will DOE The also continue to strengthen strengthening institutional their on ECs supervise Administration (NEA) will continue to assist and National Electrification the with together DOE Distribution Development Plans (DDPs). The respective their (ECs), formulating in Cooperatives Utilities (DUs), Distribution of Electric particularly will continually focus on increasing the capacities For the to short long-term period, the Department DISTRIBUTION AND SUPPLY will ensure its proper implementation. proper ensure its will ERC’s promulgation of the requisite guidelines that aggregation will implemented be as well upon below 750 and kW above effective 2017. Retail end-userselectricity with average demand of 26 February 2017 while by end of 2017 for those average demand of 1MW and above will on be contestability of end-users electricity having an Within short-term the horizon, mandatory the policies. resiliency enabling implementing and infrastructure to an energy-resilient one by towards the transformation of current its system Likewise, the distribution sector shall move the smart grid (e.g. prepaid electricity, etc.). invest in more efficient technologies such as franchise areas. sector The shall utilize and respective their in infrastructure distribution of continuousundertake and expansion upgrade Over the planning horizon, DUs are mandated to applications. will DOE The continue to process direct connection meet the new and emerging needs of customers. development policies to of and regulatory support mechanism in rates and charges along with the To transparency improved welfare, consumer raise power and penalty provisions will facilitated. be tocontracts include provisions for replacement supply power in enhancement this, with line In adequacy of supply at the least cost as well as reserves. (PSAs) to ensure Agreements Power Supply securing of DUs shall instill transparency and competition in Process (CSP) aggregation and Selection Competitive fullThe implementation and conduct of the institutional issues. and inefficiencies financial and operational to address benchmarking and assessment performance regular both grid and off-grid, will also subjected be to governance.operational and good efficiency DUs, POWER DEVELOPMENT PLAN, 2016 2040 52
Power Sector Roadmap
industry industry
Ensure a transparent and fair playing field in the power the in field playing fair and transparent a Ensure
electricity to access Expand
supply secure and affordable reliable, quality, nsure E 2040 OVERALL OBJECTIVES BY
)
2040 Term - - 2023 Long (
Operation development, it will continue to conduct trainings conducttrainings to continue itwill development, participants market the for building capacity and be fully will The NMMS trials. perform system and features the including 2017 June by operationalized market. reserve and bidding side demand for establishment eventual the for activities Preparatory Mindanao in electricity market a competitive of and manage need to the given underway also are arising issues pricing and expected dispatch address committed of operation commercial full the from supply excess to resulting Mindanao in capacities the for requirements The systems grid. the in be part NMMS. the of already will market Mindanao the of appointment the for The groundwork been has (IMO) Operator Market Independent to is short-term the needed for is what thus, done, with collaboration in IMO the endorse to beable
’ Term Openaccess for 500KW and below Retail aggregation for aggregatedminimum demand of 500 kW 2022) -
Formulate Supply Development PDP the in integration for Plan facilitate: to policies Develop • • (2019 Medium- Dus
ROADMAP SECTOR POWER
users
- Term 2018) - Increase transparency in the retail supplycontracting. Developpolicies on the implementation ofRCOA in Mindanao 2018by Mandatory Contestability up and MW for 1 Contestability Mandatory electricity end open accessFull for andKW 750 above Customers Contestable Retail aggregation for minimum of 750 kW aggregated demand Conduct Market Studies for lowering to Contestability 500 kW Facilitate timely implementation of necessary Distribution Facilities Distribution necessary of implementation timely Facilitate efficiency institutional and operational towards (DDP) Plan Development Distribution Enhance Facilitate economies of scale thein Distribution Utilities Provide policy andregulatory support to new and emerging needs ofthe consumers Improve transparency mechanism in rates and charges Ensure adequatepower supplycontracts and reserves toserve Captive Market through open and competitive processes Enhancepowercontracts supply include to amongreplacementothers powerpenaltyandprovisions Performance Assessment/Benchmarking Process Direct Connection Application of monitor and accountability Develop Continueimplement to distribution upgradeslineexpansion and programsforbetter servicesthe at cost to consumers least Continue improvementoperational in efficiencygood and governance operationsthe in and Utilities Distribution of management Developresiliency policiesdistribution for facilities Short- Develop policies facilitate: to policies Develop • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • (2017 • • Figure 21. Power Sector Roadmap 2017-2040, Distribution and Supply 21. Power Figure
MARKET DEVELOPMENT MARKET On the enhancement of the WESM design, systems the completed already PEMC while For the medium-term, the integration of the the of integration the medium-term, the For envisioned is PDP the in plan development supply power electric the of transition the considering competitive and a market-driven into industry given are (contestable) customers sector wherein with The together DOE, choice. of power the the lowering for policies develop will ERC, the the for aggregation kW including 500 to threshold same threshold. is Mindanao in RCOA long-term, short to the In the following 2018 by be pursued to targeted implementation of WESM in Mindanao. POWER DEVELOPMENT PLAN, 2016 2040 PLAN, DEVELOPMENT POWER Supply 53 Distribution
Power Sector Roadmap Development and Support and Support Institutional Institutional Mechanism Market investments in additional capacities in the region. encourage further will signals that economic marketThe will also provide price and other techno- dispatch system to optimize available capacities. will implemented be in 2017 to establish central Market Electricity Mindanao grid. Mindanao the in considering supply-demand situation specifically subject to guidance and directives of the DOE assets in will continue to pursued be by PSALM decommissioned and NPP-IPP contracts plants, privatization remaining the of The NPC generating Operator (AGMO). responsibilities Autonomous the of Group Market the EPIRA. IMO The will assume the functions and accordance provided withframework legal the by the power electricity industry participants and in
Figure 22.Power 2017-2040,Market Roadmap Development Sector and • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • on: Develop and policies compliance monitor Continue policy development to enhance Electricity Market Electricity enhance to development policy Continue generation planning software and transmission planning planning tools transmission and software planning generation of procurement through planning generation power enhance to Support Assist and monitor institutionalECs strengthening program implementation EPIRA evaluate and Monitor Preparesemi- submit and Rules to WESM compliance Monitor Standards of review conduct and Performance Operator Market Monitor System Management Power Database Electric DOE maintain and Establish Conduct WESMRules, Manual Market and Retail Rules Review Conduct periodic OperationsMarket Audit and Metering ProviderService Review Intensify Information, Education and CommunicationCampaign (IEC) Market Rights/Day Transmission Market/Financial Forwards in WESM the Bidding Demand Co Market Reserve/Energy RPS implementation) with line (in Market Energy Renewable technologies other and Grid Smart Develop Roadmap, Policy Utilizationfor Market Establishment of Mindanao Electricity Generators Embedded for policy Privatizationofassets NPC (IMO) Operator Market Independent Appoint Improvements/NMMSWESM Design
(2017 Short-
- - ahead market/Derivatives 2018) Term
POWER SECTORROADMAP
- Institutional Support Mechanism Support Institutional optimization annual EPIRA Status Report to JCPC Report EPIRA annual Status
Medium- (2019 - 2022) Term enhance various market developments; and 2) and developments; market various enhance and innovationstechnological support that would developments 1) on to Grid Smart provide Also included in the -term, short are policy mechanism for compliance to the RPS. and allow the trading of Green Certificates as a Standards Portfolio Renewable implementation Renewable Energy Market to complement the in the WESM enhancing supply reliability; and 2) would allow more transparent supply and pricing that market energy and reserve co-optimized 1) Included in the short-term, the is DOE envisioning: use. ensure optimal harmonizing generation policies embedded to on To complement this, the will DOE also look into
( POWER DEVELOPMENT PLAN, 2016 2040 Long 2023-
- Term 2040
)
OBJECTIVES BY OBJECTIVES OVERALL OVERALL
Ensure quality, reliable, affordable and secure supply 2040 Expand access to electricity
54 Ensure a transparent and fair playing field in the power industry
Power Sector Roadmap for DOE to catapult from this progress and ensure ensure and progress this from catapult DOE to for of effective and development the continuous reduction the to leads that programs of kind this a policy commence DOE will Thus, UCME. of and develop to group a focus convene and study DOEwill policy program. graduation a establish assess, to inper area-by-area direct NPC-SPUG and areas SPUG of viability commercial the basis, already may which areas priority therein determine the as soon as program graduation the for qualify policy action This implemented. policy becomes rationalize DOE to of intention the address also will cull and system subsidy UCME the improve and be addressed need to that concerns important out first before implementing a graduation policy. also will policies ofresilience The development previous from be DOE. by prioritized Learning wreaked heavily typhoons have when experiences will this facilities, system power crucial on havoc continuous ensure to forward step our serveas and during before, supply power reliable and after naturalor human-induced calamities. top At NPPs and NPC-SPUG of plants power which, of assessment performance to be subject also will further and efficiency plant their determine to improve their operations. its continuous in NPC support also DOE will which energization for of new areas determination Electrification itsMissionary in outlined being are zones tourism hand, other the On (MEP). Plan be also will areas missionary in eco-zones or Missionary the in included and determined these as (MEDP) Plan Development Electrification for way the pave can studied, thoroughly if areas, investment. private of influx an and be studied also will mix energy optimal An implemented that off-grid ensure to are also areas our by taken being direction the with synchronized The optimal grid. national the from stakeholders among consideration, into take also will mix MISSIONARY ELECTRIFICATION MISSIONARY INSTITUTIONAL ANDSUPPORT MECHANISM As of June 2016, there are already seven (7) (7) seven already are there 2016, As June of have that (SIIGs) Grids Isolated and Island Small its of privatization the attained successfully generation of The turn-over services. generation Providers Power a New to NPC-SPUG from function of reduction the to redound eventually will (NPP) turn in which subsidy (ME) Electrification Missionary Government the by incurred cost the minimizes imperative becomes then It NPC-SPUG. the through The implementation ofinstitutional and other pillar be a main to continue will mechanism support of attainment the ensure to initiatives DOE’s the of short-medium- the realize and objectives EPIRA the Among goals. development market long term IEC of intensification 1) are: priorities the others, by supported level, roots grass the at Campaign thru PEMC the and Agencies Attached different the continuing 2) fora; and trainings focus of conduct rules thru operations WESM in improvements audits, WESM of conduct changes, and review performance and Operator of Market monitoring and establishment 3) Rules; WESM to compliance Database Power Electric DOE’s the of maintenance Management that would Systems support the and analysis providing policy initiatives various building capacity continuing 4) basis; numerical the with up cope to be able to DOE personnel for dynamicnatureof the power industry; enhanced 5) advanced using planning expansion supply 6) software and, optimization and tools modeling ensuring the to compliance various requirements laws. related and EPIRA the of demand-side bidding in the WESM. Meanwhile, Meanwhile, WESM. the in bidding demand-side the electricity enhance policy to developments the to up pursued becontinuously will market horizon. planning long-term POWER DEVELOPMENT PLAN, 2016 2040 PLAN, DEVELOPMENT POWER 55
Power Sector Roadmap Electrification Electrification Missionary the operations in missionary areas to viability In the to short long run, we envision to bring levels. areas to commercial viability missionary systems and bringingdelivery operations the in SPUG power system facilities and associated Competitive Process Selection (CSP), improving supply contracting especially in the conduct of assisting Cooperatives Electric during power in roles interdependent and individual their formulation policies of and maximization of will also strengthened be to ensure the expeditious Institutional cooperation among DOE, NEA and NPC areas. off-grid of peculiarity infrastructural current the considering others, required RE generation by ECs while also
Figure Electri cation 23.Power 2017-2040, Missionary Roadmap Sector • • • • • • • • • • • • • from UCME from policy graduation Develop benchmarking and Assessment Performance purposes investment private for zones as ecoelectrificationas well for areas new Determine Capacitate DUs to improve power supply contracting off- in contracting supply improve power to DUs Capacitate Promoteelectrification integration incentives the economic missionary in other of System Database Electrification Missionary maintainDevelop and SPUG generating assets generating SPUG Monitor and enhance the implementation of the privatization of remaining NPC- efficiency and reduction of losses reduction and efficiency for increased Cooperatives ofElectric operations Improve and services Expand Guidelines Grid Small Philippine to compliance Monitor ECs for supplybeneficial contracts mutuallyCSP and transparentand effective ensure to NPC) and cooperation(DOE, NEA institutional Strengthen for off for policies resiliency Develop UCME SubsidySystem Rationalize and improve grid areas grid off for mix energy optimal on studies policy Conduct (2017 Short- - grid facilities grid
- 2018) Term
POWER SECTORROADMAP
- -
Medium- (2019 - 2022) Term with minimum operational specifications. operational minimum with Committee (DMC) as this will direct ECs to comply coordination with Distribution the Management the Philippine Small Grid Guidelines (PSGG) in of various compliance measures prescribed in implementation the improvement is intended for the entry of an NPP. One way to work on this system losses. This will also prepare their facilities reduce eventually and efficiency operational of EC’s distribution utilities to increase their franchise areas. This also calls for the improvement preparedness in contracting power supply for their to ensure their trainings various through formulation and direction, ECs will capacitated be to improve the PSP program through policy governmentAs agencies make necessary efforts levels as directed by existing laws and policies.
grid areas grid
( Long 2023- POWER DEVELOPMENT PLAN, 2016 2040 - Term 2040
)
OBJECTIVES BY OBJECTIVES OVERALL OVERALL
Ensure quality, reliable, affordable and secure supply 2040 Expand access to electricity
56 Ensure a transparent and fair playing field in the power industry
Power Sector Roadmap be connected in the distribution system which will will which system distribution the in be connected target and number a baseline setting by be done on based DUs the of area franchise per household for 3) and Census; National 2015 released recent the electrification,offgrid electrificationseparate plan household its total achieve to be developed will establishing by be done will This electrification. a well and areas off-grid the all of inventory an electrification of its status of database maintained percent its 100 achieving DOE in help will electrification areas. off grid in household and targeted of electrification percent The 100 is grid the to accessible households identified percent 100 the while 2022 by be attained to target are electrification off-grid in of household areas (2023-2040). period term long the expected in expected to is all to electricity access Accordingly, by country the in households all by be experienced electricity to maintain to work The DOE will 2040. provide and beyond and term long the for access all to service 24-hour continuous and quality off-grid on areas. identified situated household on targets the highlights 25 Table short-term, the In Household the of component sub-program a per to on how (HEDP) Plan ElectrificationDevelopment by level electrification household 90 percent attain goal. part DOE short term as the of 2017 long-term the of success the ensure To the with DOE together the goal, electrification carry will stakeholders and agencies out concerned initiatives: and plans strategies, following the to strategy monitoring a coordinated Establish household 90 of percent attainment the ensure the is strategies the of One 2017. by electrification report to accomplishment a monthly of provision keep track of program (including sub-program) accomplishments vs. targets. ELECTRIFICATION The DOE will continue to work on its programs in in its programs on work to continue The DOE will 90 percent the attaining of its goal achieve to order electrification 2017. by household electrification level household 90 percent From 100 attaining on looking DOE is the 2017, by identified and targeted of electrification percent goal, this achieve to how As to 2022. by households Electrificationthe Household Unified Strategic its with DOE together by represented Team (HOUSE) concerned and NPC) and (NEA agencies attached settle 1) undertake the following will stakeholders of implementation the during arose that issues 2) 2017; by level 90 percent the achieving in HEDP can that identify and consumers household target In line with improvement of the PSP program, program, PSP the of improvement with line In generating NPC-SPUG of existing privatization through either be enhanced also will assets policy or new of establishment policy clarification, amendment of DOE Department 2004-01- Circular said the of lease or purchase the sure make to 001 further attract To item. a priority becomes assets incentives economic possible investors, private in generation power in engaging stakeholders to be will explored coordination in areas missionary Enterprise and Infrastructure Tourism the with agencies government Authority other and Zone operation. same the in involved are that a Missionary years, the succeeding Throughout be will System Database Electrification others, among include, will that implemented information from the reportorial requirements of relevant as well as Companies Generation and ECs be imperative also NEA. will and It NPC from data diligently to areas missionary in ECs enjoin to Plan Development Distribution their accomplish of accuracy and completeness the ensure to (DDP) database. the in needed information the POWER DEVELOPMENT PLAN, 2016 2040 PLAN, DEVELOPMENT POWER 57
Power Sector Roadmap HEDP electrification program Government. the electrification of that will as serve baseline and target of all off-grid beneficiaries and 2) nationwide off-grid database (HEIS) that will address potential duplication of household information electrification system 1) Establish an efficient monitoring system such as: System. Home Solar PV individual through interim solutions such as gensets and connected to grid and the household energized for household service number electricity of hours of the on requirement minimum the on guidelines and in off-grid areas. said The shall policy provide energized/electrifiedof households in grid area to clarify issues and concerns on the definition Issue on the apolicy definition of access electricity
Figure 24.Power Roadmap 2017-2040, Electri cation Roadmap Sector • • • • NIHE Phase 2 Phase NIHE D program HEDP Monitoring of System (Baseline) System Management Database Census) by 2017 (basedon 2010 household electrification 90% of attainment the to contribute that projects approve and evaluateProcess, Establish off • evelop proposal for (2017
&(EU GOP ASEP)
efforts Electrification NPC SEP and BLEP NEA RE using REMB HEP Short- QTP ASEP PV PV ER 1 ER NIHE electrification rural of attainment the to contribute that projects approve and evaluate Process, Mainstreaming - 94 ELECTRIFICATION ROADMAP
QTP PV Mainstreaming under ER 1 ER under Mainstreaming PV 1 ER - - grid 2018) Term
- 94 (electrification94 andprojects DLF RWMHEEF) and under support
• • - off of accomplishment the b) (based on 2015 census by 2022 accessible togrid households identified and electrificationtargeted of attainment 100% of program M contribute that projects approve Process, and evaluate onitoring of HEDP HEDP onitoring of NPC NPC SEP and BLEPNEA RE using REMB HEP Medium- ASEP) GOP & (EU QTP PV 2) (Phase NIHE 1 ER grid targets targets grid (2019 - Mainstreaming 94 Electrification efforts Electrification
- in depressed areas of the country. provision of the basic services electricity especially corporations and other entities in undertaking the Corporate Social Responsibility programs large of includingCivil Society NGOs, private foundations, Encourage participation and contributions of targets. the to meet implementation electrification goal in order to identify measures for Periodic review and revisit of the overall Programs. implementation of SEP, BLEP, NIHE and ER 1-94 EF 100 percent household through electrification concerned DUs in Luzon and Visayas will achieve In the medium term, the through DOE NEA and the 94
to a) a) to - 2022) Term the the
); and
POWER DEVELOPMENT PLAN, 2016 2040 • • ( Long 2023- all off of electrification household100% 2015 Census) identified beyond ( households identified and targeted all of Electrification households - grid areas -
Term 2040
)
OBJECTIVE BY OBJECTIVE OVERALL OVERALL 2040
58 TOTAL ELECTRICITY ACCESS IN THE COUNTRY
Power Sector Roadmap 7,600 6,000 23,622 10,160 2016-2017 Cumulative 10,000 19,607 Target Households Target 9,7355,600 17,252 5,600 26,987 11,200 3,000 3,000 20,435 35,352 65,394 57,976 34,626 84,759 23,622 94,500 189,63010,160 284,130 2016 2017 177,000 177,000 354,000 386,693 441,372 828,065 366,258 404,256 762,671 GRID OFF-GRID Implementer DOE Period 2016-2019 DOE 2011-2017 DOE 2016-2017 NEA 2011-2016 NEA 2015-2017 DOE 2011-2016 NEA Program Program Annual DOE Annual NPC-SPUG 5,100 2,500 Annual DOE Table 25. Household Electri cation Sub-Programs and Targets for 2016-2017 for Targets and Electri cation 25. Household Sub-Programs Table HEDP Programs PV Mainstreaming Program PV Program Mainstreaming (PVM) - PV Program Mainstreaming ASEP Household Electrification (HEP) using RE Program Missionary Electrification in NPC-SPUG Areas Projects Sub-Total Total E.R. 1-94 EF Sub-Total NEA Subsidy fo Sitio NEA Subsidy fo Electrification (2016-2017) Line Enhancement Barangay (BLEP) Program Intensification Nationwide of Household Electrification (NIHE) Sitio Electrification Program Sitio Electrification Program (SEP) DU Regular Connections Note: Targets are referenced on the HH Electrification December 2015 Level POWER DEVELOPMENT PLAN, 2016 2040 PLAN, DEVELOPMENT POWER 59
Power Sector Roadmap T-D: 106MW Mindanao Geothermal Production Geothermal Field106MW Mindanao -Energy Development Corp. Power Geothermal 458MW Makban Plant -APRenewables, Inc. Power49.4MW NasuloGeothermal Plant -Energy Development Corp.
ANNEXES ANNEXES 61 POWER DEVELOPMENT PLAN, 2016 2040 Annex 1. Philippine Historical Electricity Consumption and Peak Demand to GDP Elasticity, 2004-2015
Electricity Electricity Electricity Peak Demand GDP Peak Demand Consumption Peak Demand GDP Growth Consumption Year Consumption Growth Rate (2000=100) to GDP Growth Rate (MW) Rate (%) to GDP (GWh) (%) Million Pesos Elasticity (%) Elasticity 2004 55,957 8,525 4,276,941 0.9 0.5 2005 56,568 1.1 8,629 1.2 4,481,279 4.8 0.2 0.3 2006 56,784 0.4 8,760 1.5 4,716,231 5.2 0.1 0.3 2007 59,612 5.0 8,987 2.6 5,028,288 6.6 0.8 0.4 2008 60,821 2.0 9,054 0.7 5,237,099 4.2 0.5 0.2 2009 61,934 1.8 9,472 4.6 5,297,240 1.1 1.6 4.0 2010 67,743 9.4 10,375 9.5 5,701,539 7.6 1.2 1.2 2011 69,176 2.1 10,379 0.0 5,910,201 3.7 0.6 0.0 2012 72,922 5.4 10,761 3.7 6,305,229 6.7 0.8 0.6 2013 75,266 3.2 11,305 5.1 6,750,631 7.1 0.5 0.7 2014 77,261 2.7 11,822 4.6 7,170,414 6.2 0.4 0.7 2015 82,413 6.7 12,213 3.3 7,593,769 5.9 1.1 0.6 Annex 2. Luzon Historical Electricity Consumption and Peak Demand to GRDP Elasticity, 2004-2015
Electricity Electricity Electricity Peak Demand GRDP Peak Demand Consumption Peak Demand GRDP Growth Consumption Year Consumption Growth Rate (2000=100) to GRDP Growth Rate (MW) Rate (%) to GRDP (GWh) (%) Million Pesos Elasticity (%) Elasticity
2004 42,390 6,323 3,110,292 0.7 0.4 2005 42,563 0.4 6,443 1.9 3,265,801 5.0 0.1 0.4 2006 42,424 (0.3) 6,466 0.4 3,435,661 5.2 (0.1) 0.1 2007 44,340 4.5 6,643 2.7 3,663,711 6.6 0.7 0.4 2008 45,317 2.2 6,674 0.5 3,814,637 4.1 0.5 0.1 2009 45,635 0.7 6,928 3.8 3,861,247 1.2 0.6 3.1 2010 50,322 10.3 7,656 10.5 4,174,036 8.1 1.3 1.3 2011 50,965 1.3 7,552 (1.4) 4,308,393 3.2 0.4 (0.4) 2012 53,723 5.4 7,889 4.5 4,598,670 6.7 0.8 0.7 2013 55,736 3.7 8,305 5.3 4,942,077 7.5 0.5 0.7 2014 57,489 3.1 8,717 5.0 5,246,187 6.2 0.5 0.8 2015 61,099 6.3 8,928 2.4 5,560,531 6.0 1.0 0.4 POWER DEVELOPMENT PLAN, 2016 2040 62
ANNEXES ANNEXES 63 POWER DEVELOPMENT PLAN, 2016 2040 Annex 3. Visayas Historical Electricity Consumption and Peak Demand to GRDP Elasticity, 2004-2015
Electricity Electricity Electricity Peak Demand GRDP Peak Demand Consumption Peak Demand GRDP Growth Consumption Year Consumption Growth Rate (2000=100) to GRDP Growth Rate (MW) Rate (%) to GRDP (GWh) (%) Million Pesos Elasticity (%) Elasticity
2004 6,481 1,025 549,003 1.3 0.4 2005 6,762 4.3 1,037 1.2 574,164 4.6 0.9 0.3 2006 6,946 2.7 1,066 2.8 602,538 4.9 0.5 0.6 2007 7,382 6.3 1,102 3.4 639,203 6.1 1.0 0.6 2008 7,532 2.0 1,176 6.7 666,315 4.2 0.5 1.6 2009 8,064 7.1 1,241 5.5 665,784 (0.1) (88.6) (69.3) 2010 9,018 11.8 1,431 15.3 718,742 8.0 1.5 1.9 2011 9,508 5.4 1,481 3.5 759,128 5.6 1.0 0.6 2012 10,072 5.9 1,551 4.7 799,533 5.3 1.1 0.9 2013 10,183 1.1 1,572 1.4 844,313 5.6 0.2 0.2 2014 10,292 1.1 1,636 4.0 888,023 5.2 0.2 0.8 2015 11,184 8.7 1,768 8.1 939,393 5.8 1.5 1.4 Annex 4. Mindanao Historical Electricity Consumption and Peak Demand to GRDP Elasticity, 2004-2015
Electricity Electricity Electricity Peak Demand GRDP Consumption Peak Demand GRDP Growth Consumption Peak Demand to Year Consumption Growth Rate (2000=100) Growth Rate (MW) Rate (%) to GRDP GRDP Elasticity (GWh) (%) Million Pesos (%) Elasticity
2004 7,087 1,177 617,646 1.4 0.7 2005 7,243 2.2 1,149 (2.4) 641,314 3.8 0.6 (0.6) 2006 7,414 2.4 1,228 6.9 678,031 5.7 0.4 1.2 2007 7,890 6.4 1,241 1.1 725,374 7.0 0.9 0.2 2008 7,972 1.0 1,204 (3.0) 756,147 4.2 0.2 (0.7) 2009 8,235 3.3 1,303 8.3 770,209 1.9 1.8 4.4 2010 8,403 2.0 1,288 (1.2) 808,762 5.0 0.4 (0.2) 2011 8,703 3.6 1,346 4.5 842,680 4.2 0.9 1.1 2012 9,127 4.9 1,321 (1.9) 907,026 7.6 0.6 (0.2) 2013 9,347 2.4 1,428 8.1 964,241 6.3 0.4 1.3 2014 9,481 1.4 1,469 2.9 1,036,204 7.5 0.2 0.4 2015 10,130 6.8 1,517 3.3 1,093,845 5.6 1.2 0.6 POWER DEVELOPMENT PLAN, 2016 2040 64
ANNEXES ANNEXES 65 POWER DEVELOPMENT PLAN, 2016 2040 Annex 5. Electricity Sales and Consumption by Sector, 2003-2015 (in GWh)
Philippines 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Residential 15,357 15,920 16,031 15,830 16,376 16,644 17,504 18,833 18,694 19,695 20,614 20,969 22,747 Commercial 11,106 11,785 12,245 12,679 13,470 14,136 14,756 16,261 16,624 17,777 18,304 18,761 20,085 Industrial 15,188 15,012 15,705 15,888 16,522 17,031 17,084 18,576 19,334 20,071 20,677 21,429 22,514 Others 1,069 1,359 1,177 1,275 1,641 1,395 1,523 1,596 1,446 1,668 1,971 2,186 2,462 Total Sales 42,720 44,076 45,159 45,672 48,009 49,206 50,868 55,266 56,098 59,211 61,566 63,345 67,808 Own-Use 3,410 4,654 4,591 4,227 3,994 3,935 3,524 4,677 5,398 5,351 5,959 6,461 7,124 System Loss 6,810 7,228 6,817 6,885 7,608 7,680 7,542 7,800 7,680 8,360 7,741 7,455 7,481 Total Consumption 52,941 55,957 56,568 56,784 59,612 60,821 61,934 67,743 69,176 72,922 75,266 77,261 82,413 Annex 6. Electricity Sales and Consumption by Sector, per Grid, 2003-2015 (in GWh)
Luzon 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Residential 11,796 12,115 12,038 11,802 12,129 12,236 12,801 13,865 13,558 14,262 15,056 15,304 16,528 Commercial 9,649 10,138 10,495 10,865 11,503 12,066 12,519 13,684 13,975 14,905 15,510 16,103 17,272 Industrial 10,476 10,149 10,670 10,563 11,034 11,522 11,745 13,030 13,394 14,086 14,379 14,939 15,876 Others 547 623 589 712 768 792 794 809 779 810 859 895 913 Total Sales 32,468 33,025 33,791 33,941 35,435 36,615 37,859 41,389 41,706 44,064 45,803 47,241 50,589 Own-Use 2,826 3,856 3,738 3,444 3,141 3,069 2,666 3,729 4,114 3,952 4,550 5,040 5,598 System Loss 5,191 5,509 5,033 5,039 5,764 5,632 5,110 5,204 5,145 5,707 5,383 5,208 4,912 Total Consumption 40,485 42,390 42,563 42,424 44,340 45,317 45,635 50,322 50,965 53,723 55,736 57,489 61,099 Visayas 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Residential 1,785 1,873 1,999 2,036 2,157 2,208 2,341 2,523 2,527 2,668 2,735 2,770 3,068 Commercial 666 783 861 910 1,003 1,044 1,094 1,312 1,324 1,426 1,446 1,302 1,418 Industrial 2,022 1,999 2,104 2,340 2,402 2,416 2,562 2,770 3,038 3,032 3,137 3,214 3,268 Others 245 377 320 265 455 293 313 431 336 521 550 753 1,011 Total Sales 4,718 5,032 5,284 5,551 6,017 5,961 6,309 7,036 7,224 7,647 7,868 8,039 8,765 Own-Use 484 661 679 606 574 589 565 665 996 1,092 1,055 1,049 1,131 System Loss 742 788 799 788 790 982 1,190 1,317 1,288 1,333 1,260 1,204 1,288 Total Consumption 5,945 6,481 6,762 6,946 7,382 7,532 8,064 9,018 9,508 10,072 10,183 10,292 11,184 POWER DEVELOPMENT PLAN, 2016 2040 Mindanao 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Residential 1,776 1,933 1,995 1,992 2,089 2,200 2,362 2,445 2,609 2,765 2,823 2,895 3,151 Commercial 791 864 889 904 964 1,026 1,143 1,265 1,324 1,446 1,348 1,357 1,394 Industrial 2,690 2,864 2,931 2,985 3,086 3,092 2,778 2,776 2,902 2,954 3,161 3,275 3,370 Others 277 359 269 298 418 311 417 356 332 336 563 538 538 Total Sales 5,534 6,020 6,084 6,179 6,557 6,630 6,699 6,841 7,167 7,500 7,895 8,065 8,453 Own-Use 100 137 173 178 279 277 293 282 289 306 355 372 395 System Loss 877 931 985 1,057 1,054 1,065 1,243 1,280 1,247 1,320 1,097 1,044 1,281
66 Total Consumption 6,511 7,087 7,243 7,414 7,890 7,972 8,235 8,403 8,703 9,127 9,347 9,481 10,130
ANNEXES ANNEXES Annual System Peak Grid, Demandper 1985-2015(inMW) Annex 7. 67 erLzn%AG iaa*%AG idno%AAGR Mindanao %AAGR Visayas* %AAGR Luzon Year POWER DEVELOPMENT PLAN, 2016 2040 05898 . 178 . 157 . 1,1 3.3 4.6 12,213 5.1 11,822 3.3 11,305 2.9 1,517 8.1 4.6 1,469 8.1 1,428 9,472 2.6 4.1 1,321 1.5 1,768 1.4 8.3 8,987 1,636 4.7 2.4 8,760 1,288 1,572 5.0 1,303 1.1 1,551 8,928 5.3 1,204 6.9 15.3 8,717 5.5 4.5 2015 1,241 8,305 6.7 1,431 2014 1,228 1,241 7,889 3.4 2013 10.5 1,176 7,552 2.8 3.8 2012 1,102 7,656 0.5 2011 9.8 1,066 6,928 8.5 2.7 2010 6,674 0.4 2009 6,350 5,781 6,643 3.0 10.7 2008 6,466 2.9 2007 8.9 5,328 6.2 4,814 2006 852 4,676 12.1 828 0.7 20.6 780 12.1 707 696 3.0 691 725 1.9 12.7 647 8.8 10.8 8.5 628 4,863 9.8 557 4,773 1998 10.1 512 4,306 2.5 1997 3,920 6.9 1996 3,561 1995 3,473 1994 1993 04633 . 105 . 117 . 855 3.0 7.2 3.0 8,525 5.0 8,275 7,721 8.0 4.1 2.6 7,497 1,149 13.7 4.4 7,138 1,177 6,607 1.5 1.2 1,131 995 5.3 3.0 2.8 953 1,037 10.2 939 0.6 1,025 1.9 995 892 19.9 2.8 903 2.7 6,443 5.6 898 3.1 6,323 2.7 3.1 2005 749 6,149 1.7 3.6 2004 729 4,081 5,823 6.1 9.3 2003 3,974 5,646 7.3 2.5 2002 0.8 3,909 5,450 2001 7.1 0.6 573 3,684 4,986 2000 5.5 626 8.1 3,432 1999 621 7.1 15.1 3,203 617 7.9 10.1 472 571 7.3 3.0 410 533 6.3 6.7 380 8.5 484 2.4 354 8.1 3,250 1.2 333 10.9 3,045 5.7 1992 307 2,973 7.3 1991 284 2,938 6.4 1990 2,780 5.4 1989 2,592 1988 2,435 1987 2,311 1986 1985 (1.4) ,8 35 ,4 45 039 0.0 10,379 4.5 1,346 3.5 1,481 256 (2.5) 6 19 ,3 1.4 6,438 1.9 868 470 (1.9) (1.2) (3.0) (2.4) (8.5) Total Non- Peak (Max) Coincident 071 3.7 10,761 9.5 10,375 ,5 0.7 9,054 ,2 1.2 8,629 5.2 4,295 3,037
% AAGR Annex 8. Visayas Annual System Peak Demand per Sub-Grid, 1995-2015 (in MW)
Leyte- Total Year Cebu % AAGR Negros % AAGR Panay % AAGR % AAGR Bohol % AAGR % AAGR Samar Visayas 1995 248 113 88 116 21 586 1996 272 9.73 127 12.61 95 7.03 116 0.30 22 5.69 632 7.87 1997 291 7.10 141 10.66 114 20.76 152 30.41 24 7.17 722 14.15 1998 297 2.06 136 (3.70) 114 (0.47) 127 (15.96) 28 15.90 702 (2.79) 1999 333 12.16 152 12.03 81 (28.65) 126 (1.10) 30 8.66 722 2.97 2000 353 6.04 156 2.45 84 3.45 122 (3.25) 32 4.98 746 3.33 2001 377 6.65 151 (2.78) 146 73.92 156 28.09 31 (3.39) 861 15.33 2002 349 (7.40) 178 17.45 113 (22.39) 162 3.91 40 30.88 842 (2.16) 2003 422 20.97 179 0.94 105 (7.61) 175 7.93 41 3.28 923 9.54 2004 417 (1.14) 199 10.86 122 16.68 167 (4.52) 49 18.73 955 3.46 2005 438 4.94 195 (2.03) 120 (1.91) 168 0.65 46 (6.33) 967 1.28 2006 458 4.68 199 1.87 123 2.64 171 1.43 46 0.44 997 3.09 2007 477 4.12 209 5.11 182 48.20 186 8.76 49 5.42 1,102 10.61 2008 522 9.39 218 4.30 203 11.49 182 (2.21) 52 6.17 1,176 6.68 2009 559 7.07 215 (1.13) 223 9.91 188 3.49 56 7.77 1,241 5.52 2010 674 20.56 263 22.29 243 8.68 204 8.33 48 (14.21) 1,431 15.31 2011 704 4.44 245 (6.75) 260 7.25 209 2.81 62 30.83 1,481 3.50 2012 747 6.20 256 4.45 262 0.48 221 5.65 65 3.42 1,551 4.71 2013 780 4.41 253 (1.40) 272 3.82 199 (10.08) 63 (2.25) 1,567 1.01 2014 862 10.45 266 5.38 264 (2.72) 181 (8.74) 62 (2.23) 1,636 4.40 2015 850 (1.34) 309 15.92 309 16.84 230 26.54 70 14.18 1,768 8.09 POWER DEVELOPMENT PLAN, 2016 2040 68
ANNEXES ANNEXES 69 POWER DEVELOPMENT PLAN, 2016 2040 Annex 9. Luzon Monthly System Peak Demand, 2001-2015 (in MW)
Luzon Month 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Jan 5,119 5,212 5,282 5,511 5,471 5,619 5,819 5,972 6,118 6,407 6,594 7,027 7,079 7,121 7,315 Feb 5,157 5,056 5,345 5,701 5,853 5,776 6,115 6,094 6,452 6,878 6,877 7,162 7,214 7,545 7,610 Mar 5,384 5,424 5,705 6,065 6,210 6,186 6,157 6,211 6,642 7,057 7,006 7,503 7,720 7,655 7,878 Apr 5,523 5,589 6,149 6,218 6,266 6,222 6,581 6,663 6,845 7,305 7,056 7,885 8,178 8,267 8,727 May 5,646 5,823 6,109 6,323 6,443 6,466 6,643 6,485 6,829 7,656 7,538 7,889 8,305 8,717 8,928 Jun 5,447 5,750 5,831 5,978 6,348 6,339 6,619 6,674 6,928 7,646 7,552 7,709 8,208 8,607 8,881 Jul 5,281 5,652 5,856 6,061 6,039 6,221 6,464 6,559 6,848 7,240 7,438 7,574 8,030 8,265 8,826 Aug 5,313 5,604 5,813 5,906 6,107 6,094 6,369 6,403 6,863 7,009 7,200 7,242 7,755 8,230 8,889 Sep 5,364 5,559 5,885 6,097 5,998 6,195 6,416 6,496 6,873 7,057 7,107 7,293 7,966 8,005 8,738 Oct 5,460 5,687 5,878 5,916 5,843 5,845 6,155 6,627 6,530 7,074 7,255 7,421 7,564 7,993 8,624 Nov 5,319 5,712 5,957 5,987 5,889 5,974 6,137 6,492 6,662 6,851 7,223 7,425 7,488 8,033 8,498 Dec 5,305 5,707 5,904 5,900 5,910 5,813 6,195 6,376 6,575 6,946 7,178 7,395 7,670 7,996 8,487 Max 5,646 5,823 6,149 6,323 6,443 6,466 6,643 6,674 6,928 7,656 7,552 7,889 8,305 8,717 8,928 Annex 10. Visayas Monthly System Peak Demand, 2001-2015 (in MW)
Visayas Month 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Jan 761 781 797 866 890 906 946 1,067 1,122 1,219 1,324 1,391 1,463 1,331 1,476 Feb 747 760 792 839 892 929 969 1,069 1,159 1,199 1,356 1,386 1,446 1,362 1,479 Mar 755 765 822 878 899 949 972 1,092 1,166 1,254 1,370 1,370 1,528 1,411 1,528 Apr 794 826 828 889 916 964 1,007 1,112 1,193 1,308 1,431 1,447 1,548 1,499 1,630 May 777 842 837 896 928 968 1,015 1,090 1,204 1,364 1,405 1,464 1,572 1,606 1,618 Jun 773 818 858 857 926 961 1,078 1,089 1,204 1,344 1,399 1,449 1,555 1,636 1,562 Jul 780 803 817 880 931 977 1,090 1,105 1,201 1,323 1,398 1,440 1,543 1,511 1,584 Aug 778 793 832 889 919 951 1,100 1,127 1,214 1,310 1,415 1,480 1,207 1,579 1,596 Sep 826 790 834 894 911 976 1,094 1,128 1,206 1,341 1,414 1,456 1,547 1,528 1,625 Oct 798 780 857 904 917 967 1,088 1,174 1,215 1,333 1,435 1,489 1,520 1,517 1,705 Nov 799 790 897 952 943 984 1,101 1,176 1,241 1,402 1,462 1,502 1,518 1,610 1,768 Dec 813 842 924 955 967 997 1,102 1,165 1,231 1,431 1,481 1,551 1,350 1,526 1,727 Max 826 842 924 955 967 997 1,102 1,176 1,241 1,431 1,481 1,551 1,572 1,636 1,768 POWER DEVELOPMENT PLAN, 2016 2040 70
ANNEXES ANNEXES 71 POWER DEVELOPMENT PLAN, 2016 2040 Annex 11. Mindanao Monthly System Peak Demand, 2001-2015 (in MW)
Mindanao Month 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Jan 887 911 946 1,058 1,082 1,062 1,108 1,158 1,143 1,240 1,250 1,270 1,284 1,354 1,387 Feb 900 913 918 1,044 1,082 1,077 1,141 1,146 1,163 1,180 1,231 1,191 1,244 1,351 1,380 Mar 903 900 978 1,027 1,082 1,088 1,177 1,162 1,158 1,026 1,219 1,244 1,245 1,344 1,370 Apr 887 927 985 1,051 1,087 1,090 1,167 1,190 1,186 1,009 1,253 1,232 1,226 1,310 1,406 May 901 920 1,001 1,099 1,055 1,118 1,109 1,159 1,194 1,211 1,253 1,301 1,366 1,339 1,438 Jun 897 931 1,021 1,035 1,072 1,100 1,145 1,188 1,220 1,238 1,264 1,309 1,364 1,416 1,435 Jul 894 924 976 1,025 1,045 1,093 1,141 1,163 1,198 1,214 1,298 1,289 1,384 1,390 1,397 Aug 926 941 980 1,086 1,061 1,119 1,141 1,147 1,208 1,221 1,290 1,306 1,326 1,386 1,446 Sep 947 927 995 1,102 1,078 1,090 1,203 1,163 1,217 1,235 1,288 1,268 1,256 1,391 1,453 Oct 954 950 1,019 1,134 1,122 1,130 1,193 1,156 1,292 1,263 1,290 1,319 1,219 1,441 1,507 Nov 938 965 1,051 1,155 1,149 1,147 1,158 1,204 1,303 1,286 1,326 1,321 1,397 1,469 1,517 Dec 933 995 1,131 1,177 1,105 1,228 1,241 1,175 1,282 1,288 1,346 1,318 1,428 1,453 1,510 Max 954 995 1,131 1,177 1,149 1,228 1,241 1,204 1,303 1,288 1,346 1,321 1,428 1,469 1,517 Annex 12. Philippine Installed and Dependable Capacity by Plant Type, 2003-2015 (in MW)
Philippines Philippine Installed Capacity 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Coal 3,958 3,967 3,967 4,177 4,213 4,213 4,277 4,867 4,917 5,568 5,568 5,708 5,963 7,419 Oil Based 3,604 3,669 3,663 3,602 3,616 3,353 3,193 3,193 2,994 3,074 3,353 3,476 3,610 3,616 Natural Gas 2,763 2,763 2,763 2,763 2,834 2,831 2,831 2,861 2,861 2,862 2,862 2,862 2,862 3,431 Renewable Energy (RE) 4,799 5,149 5,226 5,261 5,277 5,284 5,309 5,438 5,391 5,521 5,541 5,898 6,330 6,958 Geothermal 1,932 1,932 1,978 1,978 1,958 1,958 1,953 1,966 1,783 1,848 1,868 1,918 1,917 1,916 Hydro 2,867 3,217 3,222 3,257 3,293 3,291 3,291 3,400 3,491 3,521 3,521 3,543 3,600 3,618 Biomass, Solar, Wind 0 0 26 26 26 34 64 73 117 153 153 437 812 1,424 Total 15,124 15,548 15,619 15,803 15,941 15,681 15,610 16,359 16,162 17,025 17,325 17,944 18,765 21,423 Philippine Dependable Capacity 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Coal 3,691 3,696 3,432 3,638 3,467 3,412 3,813 4,245 4,651 5,206 5,206 5,378 5,613 6,979 Oil Based 3,175 3,216 3,043 2,879 2,670 2,702 2,528 2,488 2,579 2,561 2,846 2,705 2,734 2,821 Natural Gas 2,703 2,703 2,703 2,703 2,703 2,562 2,700 2,756 2,770 2,760 2,760 2,760 2,759 3,291 POWER DEVELOPMENT PLAN, 2016 2040 Renewable Energy (RE) 3,828 4,251 4,419 4,407 4,650 4,370 4,285 4,413 4,478 4,539 4,559 4,789 5,325 6,005
Geothermal 1,568 1,560 1,685 1,682 1,667 1,387 1,322 1,350 1,434 1,462 1,482 1,607 1,601 1,689 Hydro 2,260 2,690 2,725 2,715 2,973 2,950 2,919 3,021 2,963 2,983 2,983 2,982 3,073 3,181 Biomass, Solar, Wind 0 1 10 10 10 34 44 41 80 94 94 201 651 1,135 Total 13,397 13,865 13,598 13,627 13,490 13,047 13,326 13,902 14,477 15,066 15,371 15,633 16,432 19,097 72
ANNEXES ANNEXES 73 POWER DEVELOPMENT PLAN, 2016 2040 Annex 13. Luzon Installed and Dependable Capacity by Plant Type, 2003-2015 (in MW)
Luzon Luzon Installed Capacity 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Coal 3,769 3,769 3,769 3,769 3,783 3,783 3,849 3,849 3,879 4,531 4,531 4,671 4,812 5,294 Oil Based 2,514 2,514 2,404 2,333 2,363 2,100 1,984 1,984 1,757 1,778 2,020 2,033 2,133 2,133 Natural Gas 2,763 2,763 2,763 2,763 2,834 2,831 2,831 2,861 2,861 2,861 2,861 2,861 2,861 3,430 Renewable Energy (RE) 2,765 3,115 3,192 3,226 3,194 3,199 3,199 3,287 3,242 3,358 3,378 3,649 3,863 4,120 Geothermal 907 907 954 954 886 886 886 899 751 824 844 844 844 843 Hydro 1,858 2,208 2,213 2,247 2,284 2,281 2,280 2,346 2,440 2,462 2,462 2,471 2,528 2,537 Biomass, Solar, Wind 0 0 25 25 25 33 34 42 50 72 71 333 490 740 Total 11,812 12,162 12,128 12,092 12,174 11,913 11,863 11,981 11,739 12,528 12,790 13,213 13,668 14,977 Luzon Dependable Capacity 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Coal 3,551 3,551 3,287 3,287 3,112 3,056 3,450 3,531 3,664 4,219 4,219 4,391 4,512 4,970 Oil Based 2,236 2,236 2,059 1,928 1,713 1,742 1,617 1,586 1,633 1,586 1,736 1,507 1,585 1,655 Natural Gas 2,703 2,703 2,703 2,703 2,703 2,562 2,700 2,756 2,770 2,759 2,759 2,759 2,759 3,291
Renewable Energy (RE) 2,031 2,381 2,547 2,547 2,782 2,507 2,464 2,626 2,757 2,785 2,805 2,965 3,322 3,684
Geothermal 604 604 727 726 714 439 431 500 587 587 607 692 691 777 Hydro 1,428 1,778 1,811 1,813 2,059 2,035 1,999 2,101 2,124 2,147 2,147 2,131 2,224 2,323 Biomass, Solar, Wind 0 0 9 9 9 33 34 25 46 52 52 142 407 584 Total 10,521 10,871 10,596 10,466 10,311 9,868 10,230 10,498 10,824 11,349 11,519 11,622 12,179 13,600 Annex 14. Visayas Installed and Dependable Capacity by Plant Type, 2003-2015 (in MW)
Visayas Visayas Installed Capacity 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Coal 189 198 198 198 198 198 196 786 806 806 806 806 769 1,054 Oil Based 530 596 668 678 659 659 615 615 615 670 670 670 670 655 Natural Gas 00000000011111 Renewable Energy (RE) 927 927 927 927 976 977 1,007 1,006 981 971 971 1,043 1,242 1,574 Geothermal 916 916 916 916 964 964 964 964 923 915 915 965 965 965 Hydro 12 12 12 12 12 13 13 13 13 11 11 11 11 20 Biomass, Solar, Wind 0 0 0 0 0 0 29 29 44 44 44 66 266 590 Total 1,647 1,721 1,793 1,803 1,833 1,835 1,818 2,407 2,402 2,448 2,448 2,520 2,683 3,284 Visayas Dependable Capacity 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Coal 140 145 145 140 155 155 153 501 777 777 777 777 761 1,050 Oil Based 416 507 493 459 479 482 426 464 476 505 505 505 425 434 Natural Gas 00000000011100
Renewable Energy (RE) 868 868 868 868 865 862 813 779 784 820 820 877 1,042 1,329 POWER DEVELOPMENT PLAN, 2016 2040
Geothermal 856 856 856 856 853 849 792 751 745 777 777 817 813 813 Hydro 12 12 12 12 12 13 13 13 13 11 11 11 11 18 Biomass, Solar, Wind 0 0 0 0 0 0 9 15 26 32 32 49 219 498 Total 1,424 1,520 1,506 1,467 1,498 1,499 1,392 1,745 2,037 2,103 2,103 2,160 2,228 2,813 74
ANNEXES ANNEXES 75 POWER DEVELOPMENT PLAN, 2016 2040 Annex 15. Mindanao Installed and Dependable Capacity by Plant Type, 2003-2015 (in MW)
Mindanao Mindanao Installed Capacity 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Coal 0 0 0 210 232 232 232 232 232 232 232 232 382 1,070 Oil Based 559 559 591 591 594 594 594 594 622 625 663 773 807 828 Natural Gas 00000000000000 Renewable Energy (RE) 1,106 1,106 1,107 1,107 1,107 1,107 1,103 1,145 1,168 1,192 1,192 1,206 1,225 1,264 Geothermal 108 108 108 108 108 108 103 103 108 108 108 108 108 108 Hydro 998 998 998 998 998 998 998 1,040 1,038 1,047 1,047 1,061 1,061 1,061 Biomass, Solar, Wind 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 22 37 37 37 56 95 Total 1,665 1,665 1,698 1,908 1,933 1,933 1,929 1,971 2,022 2,049 2,087 2,211 2,414 3,162 Mindanao Dependable Capacity 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Coal 0 0 0 210 200 201 210 212 210 210 210 210 340 959 Oil Based 524 473 491 491 478 478 485 438 469 470 605 693 724 733 Natural Gas 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Renewable Energy (RE) 929 1,002 1,005 992 1,003 1,001 1,008 1,008 937 934 934 948 961 993
Geothermal 108 100 101 100 100 98 100 100 102 98 98 98 98 100 Hydro 821 901 902 891 902 902 907 907 827 826 826 840 837 840 Biomass, Solar, Wind 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 8 10 10 10 25 53 Total 1,453 1,475 1,496 1,694 1,681 1,680 1,703 1,658 1,616 1,614 1,749 1,851 2,025 2,684 Annex 16. Philippine Gross Generation by Plant Type, 2003-2015 (in GWh)
Plant Type 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Coal 14,939 16,194 15,257 15,294 16,837 15,749 16,476 23,301 25,342 28,265 32,081 33,054 36,686 Oil-based 7,170 8,504 6,141 4,665 5,148 4,868 5,381 7,101 3,398 4,254 4,491 5,708 5,886 Combined Cycle 439 738 91 239 653 513 639 1,202 124 227 247 515 276 Diesel 5,509 6,253 5,717 4,152 4,162 3,660 3,771 4,532 2,762 3,332 3,805 4,730 5,521 Gas Turbine 42 82 25 0 9 36 62 3 0 0 0 0 10 Oil Thermal 1,180 1,431 309 274 324 658 909 1,364 512 695 438 463 80 Natural Gas 13,139 12,384 16,861 16,366 18,789 19,576 19,887 19,518 20,591 19,642 18,791 18,690 18,878 Renewable Energy (RE) 17,692 18,874 18,308 20,459 18,837 20,628 20,191 17,823 19,845 20,762 19,903 19,810 20,963 Geothermal 9,822 10,282 9,902 10,465 10,215 10,723 10,324 9,929 9,942 10,250 9,605 10,308 11,044 Hydro 7,870 8,593 8,387 9,939 8,563 9,843 9,788 7,803 9,698 10,252 10,019 9,137 8,665 Biomass 0 0 0 0 0 0 14 27 115 183 212 196 367 Solar 0 0 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 17 139 Wind 0 0 17 53 58 61 64 62 88 75 66 152 748 Total Generation 52,941 55,957 56,568 56,784 59,612 60,821 61,934 67,743 69,176 72,922 75,266 77,261 82,413 POWER DEVELOPMENT PLAN, 2016 2040 76
ANNEXES ANNEXES 77 POWER DEVELOPMENT PLAN, 2016 2040 Annex 17. Luzon, Visayas and Mindanao Gross Generation by Plant Type, 2003-2015 (in GWh)
Luzon 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Coal 14,351 15,548 14,653 14,099 14,418 13,504 14,091 20,047 19,681 21,878 25,756 27,346 29,680 Oil-based 3,596 4,591 2,022 1,711 2,192 1,928 1,864 3,287 1,291 1,800 1,601 2,342 1,845 Natural Gas 13,139 12,384 16,861 16,366 18,789 19,576 19,887 19,518 20,591 19,642 18,783 18,686 18,878 Renewable Energy (RE) 6,448 7,330 7,091 9,065 8,221 9,192 9,132 7,413 8,454 8,993 8,679 8,392 9,711 Geothermal 2,600 3,033 2,742 3,519 3,601 3,730 3,516 3,323 3,486 3,588 3,399 3,817 4,096 Hydro 3,848 4,297 4,331 5,492 4,562 5,400 5,549 4,014 4,836 5,292 5,156 4,357 4,769 Biomass 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 14 44 37 60 65 187 Solar 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 66 Wind 0 0 17 53 58 61 64 62 88 75 66 152 592 Total Generation 37,535 39,854 40,627 41,241 43,620 44,200 44,975 50,265 50,017 52,312 54,820 56,766 60,113 Visayas 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Coal 588 646 604 719 848 746 822 1,529 4,032 4,701 4,690 4,449 4,968 Oil-based 1,861 1,998 1,800 1,282 1,477 1,665 1,864 1,727 683 734 796 766 672 Natural Gas 0000000000840 Renewable Energy (RE) 6,394 6,373 6,295 6,128 5,776 6,239 6,038 5,820 5,740 6,047 5,606 5,794 6,530 Geothermal 6,361 6,338 6,267 6,100 5,747 6,199 5,985 5,771 5,616 5,930 5,463 5,627 6,105 Hydro 33 34 27 28 29 40 42 36 53 46 37 35 38 Biomass 0 0 0 0 0 0 11 13 72 71 106 117 159 Solar 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 15 71 Wind 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 157 Total Generation 8,842 9,016 8,698 8,129 8,102 8,650 8,724 9,075 10,456 11,483 11,100 11,014 12,170 Mindanao 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Coal 0 0 0 476 1,571 1,499 1,563 1,726 1,629 1,686 1,635 1,258 2,038 Oil-based 1,714 1,916 2,320 1,672 1,479 1,275 1,652 2,087 1,424 1,720 2,094 2,599 3,369 Natural Gas 0000000000000 Renewable Energy (RE) 4,850 5,171 4,923 5,266 4,841 5,197 5,020 4,590 5,650 5,721 5,618 5,624 4,723 Geothermal 861 910 893 846 867 794 823 834 841 731 743 864 842 Hydro 3,989 4,262 4,028 4,419 3,972 4,402 4,196 3,754 4,808 4,913 4,827 4,745 3,858 Biomass 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 75 47 14 21 Solar 0 0 21111111112 Wind 0000000000000 Total Generation 6,564 7,087 7,243 7,414 7,890 7,972 8,235 8,403 8,703 9,127 9,347 9,481 10,130 Annex 18. Visayas Subgrid Gross Generation by Plant Type, 2003-2015 (in GWh)
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Cebu 1,716 1,366 1,567 1,647 1,902 2,434 3,651 4,158 4,197 3,811 4,154 Coal 604 719 848 746 822 1,499 3,249 3,674 3,652 3,354 3,868 Oil-based 1,108 642 714 895 1,074 930 395 477 532 448 282 Natural Gas 00000000840 Renewable Energy (RE) 55566567544 Geothermal 00000000000 Hydro 55566567544 Biomass 00000000000 Solar 00000000000 Wind 00000000000 Negros 1,423 1,379 1,460 1,344 1,356 1,425 1,452 1,600 1,552 1,743 1,940 Coal 00000000000 Oil-based 00000000000 Natural Gas 00000000000 Renewable Energy (RE) 1,423 1,379 1,460 1,344 1,356 1,425 1,452 1,600 1,552 1,743 1,940 Geothermal 1,421 1,377 1,458 1,343 1,344 1,411 1,404 1,572 1,491 1,657 1,767 Hydro 23221220000 Biomass 0 0 0 0 11 13 47 28 62 70 131 Solar 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 15 42
Wind 00000000000 POWER DEVELOPMENT PLAN, 2016 2040 Panay 652 608 728 725 744 787 1,043 1,266 1,284 1,393 1,597 Coal 0 0 0 0 0 30 783 1,027 1,037 1,095 1,101 Oil-based 652 608 728 725 744 757 235 197 202 251 312 Natural Gas 00000000000 Renewable Energy (RE) 0 0 0 0 0 0 25 43 44 46 185 Geothermal 00000000000 Hydro 00000000000 Biomass 0 0 0 0 0 0 25 43 44 46 28 Solar 00000000000 Wind 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 157 78
ANNEXES ANNEXES 79 POWER DEVELOPMENT PLAN, 2016 2040 Annex 18. Visayas Subgrid Gross Generation by Plant Type, 2003-2015 (in GWh) (continued) 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Leyte-Samar 4,848 4,725 4,290 4,858 4,643 4,362 4,212 4,358 3,972 3,970 4,367 Coal 00000000000 Oil-based 00000000000 Natural Gas 00000000000 Renewable Energy (RE) 4,848 4,725 4,290 4,858 4,643 4,362 4,212 4,358 3,972 3,970 4,367 Geothermal 4,847 4,723 4,289 4,857 4,641 4,361 4,212 4,358 3,972 3,970 4,339 Hydro 22122100000 Biomass 00000000000 Solar 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 28 Wind 00000000000 Bohol 24 23 33 50 54 38 49 45 38 43 45 Coal 00000000000 Oil-based 5 5 11 20 20 10 4 6 6 12 11 Natural Gas 00000000000 Renewable Energy (RE) 19 18 21 30 33 28 45 39 32 31 34 Geothermal 00000000000 Hydro 19 18 21 30 33 28 45 39 32 31 34 Biomass 00000000000 Solar 00000000000 Wind 00000000000
Summary per Visayas 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Subgrid Cebu 1,716 1,366 1,567 1,647 1,902 2,434 3,651 4,158 4,197 3,811 4,154 Negros 1,423 1,379 1,460 1,344 1,356 1,425 1,452 1,600 1,552 1,743 1,940 Panay 652 608 728 725 744 787 1,043 1,266 1,284 1,393 1,597 Leyte-Samar 4,848 4,725 4,290 4,858 4,643 4,362 4,212 4,358 3,972 3,970 4,367 Bohol 24 23 33 50 54 38 49 45 38 43 45 Total Visayas w/o SPUG 8,663 8,101 8,077 8,625 8,698 9,046 10,407 11,428 11,043 10,959 12,103 SPUG 35 28 24 25 26 30 49 55 56 55 67 Total Visayas w/ SPUG 8,698 8,129 8,102 8,650 8,724 9,075 10,456 11,483 11,100 11,014 12,170 Annex 19. Gross Power Generation by Ownership, 2003-2015 (in GWh)
Total Philippines 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 NPC 14,868 16,431 15,318 16,792 15,151 12,743 9,745 4,053 5,142 5,241 5,035 4,692 3,759 NPC-SPUG 459 395 462 507 437 448 474 522 543 466 423 416 405 NPC-IPP 24,058 25,133 24,717 23,173 26,156 27,972 27,400 14,725 9,536 9,875 8,912 8,382 8,747 Non-NPC 13,556 13,999 16,071 16,312 17,867 19,658 24,315 48,442 53,955 57,340 60,895 63,770 69,501 Total Generation 52,941 55,957 56,568 56,784 59,612 60,821 61,934 67,743 69,176 72,922 75,266 77,261 82,413 Luzon 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 NPC 8,658 9,816 8,941 10,151 8,754 6,018 3,834 225 527 514 474 212 243 NPC-SPUG 362 308 348 396 323 330 347 380 381 314 263 250 236 NPC-IPP 16,551 17,388 16,802 15,698 18,187 19,591 18,598 6,691 2,160 2,285 2,069 1,973 1,575 Non-NPC 11,963 12,342 14,535 14,997 16,357 18,260 22,195 42,969 46,949 49,200 52,014 54,332 58,059 Total Generation 37,535 39,854 40,627 41,241 43,620 44,200 44,975 50,265 50,017 52,312 54,820 56,766 60,113 Visayas 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 NPC 2,248 2,384 2,406 2,285 2,380 2,332 1,690 176 43 35 30 21 0 NPC-SPUG 28 26 35 28 24 25 26 30 49 32 33 34 22 NPC-IPP 5,014 4,987 4,783 4,568 4,255 4,983 4,967 4,482 4,174 4,274 3,581 3,364 3,576 Non-NPC 1,552 1,619 1,474 1,248 1,443 1,310 2,042 4,387 6,191 7,142 7,455 7,595 8,572 Total Generation 8,842 9,016 8,698 8,129 8,102 8,650 8,724 9,075 10,456 11,483 11,100 11,014 12,170
Mindanao 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 POWER DEVELOPMENT PLAN, 2016 2040 NPC 3,962 4,231 3,971 4,356 4,017 4,393 4,221 3,652 4,572 4,692 4,531 4,458 3,516 NPC-SPUG 68 61 80 83 90 93 101 113 113 121 128 132 147 NPC-IPP 2,493 2,757 3,131 2,907 3,715 3,398 3,834 3,551 3,202 3,316 3,262 3,046 3,596 Non-NPC 41 38 61 67 68 88 79 1,086 815 998 1,426 1,844 2,870 Total Generation 6,564 7,087 7,243 7,414 7,890 7,972 8,235 8,403 8,703 9,127 9,347 9,481 10,130 NPC – National Power Corporation; SPUG-Small Power Utilities Group; IPP-Independent Power Producer 80
ANNEXES
For inquiries, please contact:
Felix William B. Fuentebella Undersecretary
Redentor E. Delola Assistant Secretary For inquiries, please contact:
Mylene C. Capongcol Director,Felix Electric William Power Industry B. Fuentebella Management Bureau Undersecretary Irma C. Exconde Assistant Director, Electric Power Industry Management Bureau Mylene C. Capongcol Director, Electric Power Industry Management Bureau Electric Power Industry Management Bureau
Irma C. Exconde Assistant Director, ElectricThelma Power B. EjercitoIndustry Management Bureau OIC-Chief, Power Planning and Development Division Power Generation and Supply Monitoring and Development ectio Luningning G. Baltazar Chief, Power Market Development Division el a E ercito OIC-Chief, Power Planning and Development Division Josue B. Balacuit OIC-Chief, Rural Electrification Administration and Management Division Mark Christian P. Marollano Jhoana R. Bautista-Limbaga MarkMary Christian Grace P. V. Marollano Gabis Jhoana R. Bautista-Limbaga NorielMary Christopher Grace V. Gabis R. Reyes NorielBeejee Christopher B. Dequiña R. Reyes KennethBeejee J B.ack Dequiña P. Muñoz Genevieve Dawn Tolentino KennethJordan JackM. B P.allaran Muñoz ArthurJordan Kent M. Ballaran M. Holt Arthur Kent M. Holt Marc Louie l. Olap
DepartmentDepartment ofof Energy Energy Energy Center, Center, Rizal Rizal Drive, Drive, Bonifacio Bonifacio Global G lobalCity (BGC) City (BGC)TaguigTaguig City, City, Philippines Philippines 1632 1632 Tel. Nos.: 840-2173; 479-2900 local 386, 202 Tel. Nos.: 840-2173; 479-2900 local 386, 202 Website: http://www.doe.gov.ph Facebook:Website: http://www.facebook.com/doe.gov.ph http://www.doe.gov.ph Facebook: http://www.facebook.com/doe.gov.phInstagram: @DOE_PH Instagram:Twitter: @DOE_PH @DOE_PH Twitter: @DOE_PH