REALM Research Briefing: Vaccines, Variants, and Venitlation
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Executive Summary: Under the Surface: Covid-19 Vaccine Narratives, Misinformation and Data Deficits on Social Media
WWW.FIRSTDRAFTNEWS.ORG @FIRSTDRAFTNEWS Executive summary Under the surface: Covid-19 vaccine narratives, misinformation and data deficits on social media AUTHORS: RORY SMITH, SEB CUBBON AND CLAIRE WARDLE CONTRIBUTING RESEARCHERS: JACK BERKEFELD AND TOMMY SHANE WWW.FIRSTDRAFTNEWS.ORG @FIRSTDRAFTNEWS Mapping competing vaccine narratives across English, Spanish and Francophone social media This research demonstrates the complexity of the vaccine Cite this report: Smith, R., Cubbon, S. & Wardle, C. (2020). Under the information ecosystem, where a cacophony of voices and surface: Covid-19 vaccine narratives, misinformation & data deficits on narratives have coalesced to create an environment of extreme social media. First Draft. https://firstdraftnews.org/vaccine- uncertainty. Two topics are driving a large proportion of the narratives-report-summary- november-2020 current global vaccine discourse, especially around a Covid-19 vaccine: the “political and economic motives” of actors and institutions involved in vaccine development and the “safety, efficacy and necessity” concerns around vaccines. Narratives challenging the safety of vaccines have been perennial players in the online vaccine debate. Yet this research shows that narratives related to mistrust in the intentions of institutions and key figures surrounding vaccines are now driving as much of the online conversation and vaccine skepticism as safety concerns. This issue is compounded by the complexities and vulnerabilities of this information ecosystem. It is full of “data deficits” — situations where demand for information about a topic is high, but the supply of credible information is low — that are being exploited by bad actors. These data deficits complicate efforts to accurately make sense of the development of a Covid-19 vaccine and vaccines more generally. -
Molecular Analysis of SARS-Cov-2 Genetic Lineages in Jordan: Tracking the Introduction and Spread of COVID-19 UK Variant of Concern at a Country Level
pathogens Article Molecular Analysis of SARS-CoV-2 Genetic Lineages in Jordan: Tracking the Introduction and Spread of COVID-19 UK Variant of Concern at a Country Level Malik Sallam 1,2,* and Azmi Mahafzah 1,2 1 Department of Pathology, Microbiology and Forensic Medicine, School of Medicine, The University of Jordan, Amman 11942, Jordan; [email protected] 2 Department of Clinical Laboratories and Forensic Medicine, Jordan University Hospital, Amman 11942, Jordan * Correspondence: [email protected]; Tel.: +962-79-184-5186 Abstract: The rapid evolution of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) is manifested by the emergence of an ever-growing pool of genetic lineages. The aim of this study was to analyze the genetic variability of SARS-CoV-2 in Jordan, with a special focus on the UK variant of concern. A total of 579 SARS-CoV-2 sequences collected in Jordan were subjected to maximum likelihood and Bayesian phylogenetic analysis. Genetic lineage assignment was undertaken using the Pango system. Amino acid substitutions were investigated using the Protein Variation Effect Analyzer (PROVEAN) tool. A total of 19 different SARS-CoV-2 genetic lineages were detected, with the most frequent being the first Jordan lineage (B.1.1.312), first detected in August 2020 (n = 424, 73.2%). This was followed by the second Jordan lineage (B.1.36.10), first detected in September 2020 (n = 62, 10.7%), and the UK variant of concern (B.1.1.7; n = 36, 6.2%). In the spike gene region, Citation: Sallam, M.; Mahafzah, A. the molecular signature for B.1.1.312 was the non-synonymous mutation A24432T resulting in a Molecular Analysis of SARS-CoV-2 deleterious amino acid substitution (Q957L), while the molecular signature for B.1.36.10 was the Genetic Lineages in Jordan: Tracking synonymous mutation C22444T. -
Immunizations
Medicine Summer 2015 | Volume 14, Number 2 encephalitis tetanus RUBELLA MUMPS meningococus pertussis ENCEPHALITIS MEASLES PERTUSSIS ROTAVIRUS meningococus MUMPS meningococus MEASLES tuberculosis RUBELLA diphtheria CHICKENPOX meningococus CHICKENPOX pneumococus meningococus rotavirus ENCEPHALITIS PNEUMOCOCUS FEVER TETANUS DIPHTHERIA TETANUS hepatitismumps POLIO encephalitis hepatitis measles pneumococus POLIO DIPHTHERIA FEVER CHICKENPOX tuberculosisRUBELLA tuberculosis diphtheria DIPHTHERIA meningococusMUMPS pneumococus encephalitis ENCEPHALITIS polio TETANUS diphtheria pertussis polio hepatitisRUBELLA meningococus ENCEPHALITIS DIPHTHERIA MEASLES YELLOW RUBELLA TETANUS measles Immunizations MEASLESpolio meningococus PERTUSSIS MEASLES RUBELLA measles tetanus rubella YELLOW tuberculosisENCEPHALITIS pneumococus CHICKENPOX RUBELLA measles What physicians rubella pertussis PNEUMOCOCUS need to know encephalitis diphtheria MUMPS meningococustetanus pneumococus measles rubella tetanus measles rotavirus tetanus rubellaPOLIOmeningococus hepatitisHEPATITISFEVER PERTUSSIS RUBELLA FEVER hepatitis FEVER HEPATITIS chickenpox poliorubella encephalitisTETANUSpertussis rubella DIPHTHERIA rotavirus tuberculosis FEVERHEPATITIS POLIO yellow DIPHTHERIAYELLOW polio pneumococus YELLOW polio ENCEPHALITIS chickenpoxrubellaRUBELLA rotavirus ENCEPHALITIS pertussis ROTAVIRUS tetanus chickenpox hepatitisFEVER encephalitis ENCEPHALITIS POLIO rotavirus ROTAVIRUS DIPHTHERIA YELLOW pertussis PNEUMOCOCUS PERTUSSIS RUBELLA polio CHICKENPOX ROTAVIRUS pneumococus CHICKENPOXCHICKENPOX -
A Predictive Modelling Framework for COVID-19 Transmission to Inform the Management of Mass Events
medRxiv preprint doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2021.05.13.21256857; this version posted May 16, 2021. The copyright holder for this preprint (which was not certified by peer review) is the author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity. It is made available under a CC-BY-NC-ND 4.0 International license . A Predictive Modelling Framework for COVID-19 Transmission to Inform the Management of Mass Events Claire Donnat Freddy Bunbury Department of Statistics Department of Plant Biology University of Chicago, Chicago, USA Carnegie Institution for Science, Stanford, USA [email protected] [email protected] Jack Kreindler Filippos T. Filippidis School of Public Health School of Public Health Imperial College, London, UK Imperial College, London, UK [email protected] [email protected] Austen El-Osta Tõnu Esko Matthew Harris School of Public Health Institute of Genomics School of Public Health Imperial College, London, UK University of Tartu, Tartu, Estonia Imperial College, London, UK [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] Abstract Modelling COVID-19 transmission at live events and public gatherings is essential to evaluate and control the probability of subsequent outbreaks. Model estimates can be used to inform event organizers about the possibility of super-spreading and the predicted efficacy of safety protocols, as well as to communicate to participants their personalised risk so that they may choose whether to attend. Yet, despite the fast-growing body of literature on COVID transmission dynamics, current risk models either neglect contextual information on vaccination rates or disease prevalence or do not attempt to quantitatively model transmission, thus limiting their potential to provide insightful estimates. -
From the COCCI Syndemic to the COVID-19 Pandemic
Scholars Insight Publishers Journal of Epidemiology and Global Health Research Research Article Open Access From the COCCI Syndemic to the COVID-19 Pandemic: A Cautionary Tale Interaction of Metabolic Syndrome, Obesity, Particulate Matter (PM), SARS-CoV-2 and the inflammatory response Clearfield M*, Gayer G, Wagner A, Stevenson T, Shubrook J and Gugliucci A Touro University College of Osteopathic Medicine, California, USA Corresponding Author: Dr. Clearfield M, Touro University Abstract College of Osteopathic Medicine, California, USA. A narrative review of the literature was conducted to determine E-mail id: [email protected] associations between cardiovascular (CV) risk factors associated with the COCCI syndemic (Cardiovascular disease as a result of the Received Date: March 15, 2021; interactions between obesity, climate change and inflammation) and Accepted Date: May 19, 2021; COVID-19. Published Date: May 21, 2021; The COCCI syndemic consists of two health conditions Publisher: Scholars Insight Online Publishers (dysmetabolic obesity and air pollution) that interact via biologic Citation: Clearfield M*, Gayer G, Wagner A, Stevenson T, pathways admixed with social, economic and ecologic drivers Shubrook J and Gugliucci A “From the COCCI Syndemic to augmenting adverse clinical outcomes in excess of either of these the COVID-19 Pandemic: A Cautionary Tale Interaction of health conditions individually. Metabolic Syndrome, Obesity, Particulate Matter (PM), SARS- The comorbidities noted with COVID-19 are in large part aligned CoV-2 and the inflammatory response”. J Epidemiol Glob Health with those traditional risk factors associated with CVD. In addition, Res. 2021; 1:102 when the traditional CV comorbidities are combined with the Copyright: ©2021 Clearfield M. -
COVID-19 Weekly Epidemiological Update
COVID-19 Weekly Epidemiological Update Edition 45, published 22 June 2021 In this edition: • Global overview • Special focus: Update on SARS-CoV-2 Variants of Interest and Variants of Concern • Special focus: Global Consultation on SARS-CoV-2 Variants of Concern and their Impact on Public Health Interventions • WHO regional overviews • Key weekly updates Global overview Data as of 20 June 2021 Global numbers of cases and deaths continued to decrease over the past week (14-20 June 2021) with over 2.5 million new weekly cases and over 64 000 deaths, a 6% and a 12% decrease respectively, compared to the previous week (Figure 1). While the number of cases reported globally now exceeds 177 million, last week saw the lowest weekly case incidence since February 2021. This week, the Americas and Western Pacific Regions reported numbers of new weekly cases similar to the previous week, while the South-East Asia and the European Regions reported a decline in the number of new cases. The African Region recorded a marked increase in the number of weekly cases as compared to the previous week (Table 1). Globally, mortality remains high with more than 9000 deaths reported each day over the past week, however, the number of new deaths reported in the past week decreased across all Regions except for the Eastern Mediterranean and the African Regions. Figure 1. COVID-19 cases reported weekly by WHO Region, and global deaths, as of 20 June 2021** 6 000 000 120 000 Americas South-East Asia 5 000 000 100 000 Europe Eastern Mediterranean 4 000 000 Africa -
SCIENCE and HEALTH MISINFORMATION in the DIGITAL AGE: How Does It Spread? Who Is Vulnerable? How Do We Fight It?
SCIENCE AND HEALTH MISINFORMATION IN THE DIGITAL AGE: How does it spread? Who is vulnerable? How do we fight it? ERIC MERKLEY & PETER LOEWEN J U LY, 2021 ABOUT PPF Good Policy. Better Canada. The Public Policy Forum builds bridges among diverse participants in the policy-making process and gives them a platform to examine issues, offer new perspectives and feed fresh ideas into critical policy discussions. We believe good policy is critical to making a better Canada—a country that’s cohesive, prosperous and secure. We contribute by: . Conducting research on critical issues . Convening candid dialogues on research subjects . Recognizing exceptional leaders Our approach—called Inclusion to Conclusion—brings emerging and established voices to policy conversations, which informs conclusions that identify obstacles to success and pathways forward. PPF is an independent, non-partisan charity whose members are a diverse group of private, public and non-profit organizations. ppforum.ca @ppforumca © 2021, Public Policy Forum 1400 - 130 Albert Street Ottawa, ON, Canada, K1P 5G4 613.238.7858 ISBN: 978-1-77452-085-7 WITH THANKS TO OUR PARTNERS ABOUT THE AUTHORS ERIC MERKLEY Eric Merkley (PhD, UBC) is an Assistant Professor in the Department of Political Science at the University of Toronto. He was the lead survey analyst of the Media Ecosystem Observatory, which studied the Canadian information ecosystem and public opinion during the COVID-19 pandemic, and the Digital Democracy Project, which studied misinformation and public attitudes during the 2019 Canadian federal election. His research focuses on the link between political elite behaviour, the news media, and public opinion. -
Effectiveness of COVID-19 Vaccines Against Variants of Concern, Canada
medRxiv preprint doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2021.06.28.21259420; this version posted July 3, 2021. The copyright holder for this preprint (which was not certified by peer review) is the author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity. It is made available under a CC-BY-NC-ND 4.0 International license . Effectiveness of COVID-19 vaccines against variants of concern, Canada Authors: Sharifa Nasreen PhD1, Siyi He MSc1, Hannah Chung MPH1, Kevin A. Brown PhD1,2,3, Jonathan B. Gubbay MD MSc3, Sarah A. Buchan PhD1,2,3,4, Sarah E. Wilson MD MSc1,2,3,4, Maria E. Sundaram PhD1,2, Deshayne B. Fell PhD1,5,6, Branson Chen MSc1, Andrew Calzavara MSc1, Peter C. Austin PhD1,7, Kevin L. Schwartz MD MSc1,2,3, Mina Tadrous PharmD PhD1,8, Kumanan Wilson MD MSc9, and Jeffrey C. Kwong MD MSc1,2,3,4,10,11 on behalf of the Canadian Immunization Research Network (CIRN) Provincial Collaborative Network (PCN) Investigators Affiliations: 1 ICES, Toronto, ON 2 Dalla Lana School of Public Health, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON 3 Public Health Ontario, ON 4 Centre for Vaccine Preventable Diseases, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON 5 School of Epidemiology and Public Health, University of Ottawa, ON 6 Children’s Hospital of Eastern Ontario Research Institute, Ottawa, ON 7 Institute of Health Policy, Management and Evaluation, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON 8 Women’s College Hospital, Toronto, ON 9 Department of Medicine, University of Ottawa, Ottawa and Bruyere Hospital Research Institutes, Ottawa, ON 10 Department of Family and Community Medicine, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON 11 University Health Network, Toronto, ON Corresponding author: 1 NOTE: This preprint reports new research that has not been certified by peer review and should not be used to guide clinical practice. -
Possible Modes of Transmission of Novel Coronavirus SARS-Cov-2
Acta Biomed 2020; Vol. 91, N. 3: e2020036 DOI: 10.23750/abm.v91i3.10039 © Mattioli 1885 Reviews / Focus on Possible modes of transmission of Novel Coronavirus SARS-CoV-2: a review Richa Mukhra1, Kewal Krishan1, Tanuj Kanchan2 1 Department of Anthropology (UGC Centre of Advanced Study), Panjab University, Sector-14, Chandigarh, India 2 Department of Forensic Medicine and Toxicology, All India Institute of Medical Sciences, Jodhpur, India. Abstract: Introduction: The widespread outbreak of the novel SARS-CoV-2 has raised numerous questions about the origin and transmission of the virus. Knowledge about the mode of transmission as well as assess- ing the effectiveness of the preventive measures would aid in containing the outbreak of the coronavirus. Presently, respiratory droplets, physical contact and aerosols/air-borne have been reported as the modes of SARS-CoV-2 transmission of the virus. Besides, some of the other possible modes of transmission are being explored by the researchers, with some studies suggesting the viral spread through fecal-oral, conjunctival secretions, flatulence (farts), sexual and vertical transmission from mother to the fetus, and through asymp- tomatic carriers, etc. Aim: The primary objective was to review the present understanding and knowledge about the transmission of SARS-CoV-2 and also to suggest recommendations in containing and preventing the novel coronavirus. Methods: A review of possible modes of transmission of the novel SARS-CoV-2 was conducted based on the reports and articles available in PubMed and ScienceDirect.com that were searched using keywords, ‘transmission’, ‘modes of transmission’, ‘SARS-CoV-2’, ‘novel coronavirus’, and ‘COVID-19’. Articles refer- ring to air-borne, conjunctiva, fecal-oral, maternal-fetal, flatulence (farts), and breast milk transmission were included, while the remaining were excluded. -
Vaccine Hesitancy
WHY CHILDREN WORKSHOP ON IMMUNIZATIONS ARE NOT VACCINATED? VACCINE HESITANCY José Esparza MD, PhD - Adjunct Professor, Institute of Human Virology, University of Maryland School of Medicine, Baltimore, MD, USA - Robert Koch Fellow, Robert Koch Institute, Berlin, Germany - Senior Advisor, Global Virus Network, Baltimore, MD, USA. Formerly: - Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Seattle, WA, USA - World Health Organization, Geneva, Switzerland The value of vaccination “The impact of vaccination on the health of the world’s people is hard to exaggerate. With the exception of safe water, no other modality has had such a major effect on mortality reduction and population growth” Stanley Plotkin (2013) VACCINES VAILABLE TO PROTECT AGAINST MORE DISEASES (US) BASIC VACCINES RECOMMENDED BY WHO For all: BCG, hepatitis B, polio, DTP, Hib, Pneumococcal (conjugated), rotavirus, measles, rubella, HPV. For certain regions: Japanese encephalitis, yellow fever, tick-borne encephalitis. For some high-risk populations: typhoid, cholera, meningococcal, hepatitis A, rabies. For certain immunization programs: mumps, influenza Vaccines save millions of lives annually, worldwide WHAT THE WORLD HAS ACHIEVED: 40 YEARS OF INCREASING REACH OF BASIC VACCINES “Bill Gates Chart” 17 M GAVI 5.6 M 4.2 M Today (ca 2015): <5% of children in GAVI countries fully immunised with the 11 WHO- recommended vaccines Seth Berkley (GAVI) The goal: 50% of children in GAVI countries fully immunised by 2020 Seth Berkley (GAVI) The current world immunization efforts are achieving: • Equity between high and low-income countries • Bringing the power of vaccines to even the world’s poorest countries • Reducing morbidity and mortality in developing countries • Eliminating and eradicating disease WHY CHILDREN ARE NOT VACCINATED? •Vaccines are not available •Deficient health care systems •Poverty •Vaccine hesitancy (reticencia a la vacunacion) VACCINE HESITANCE: WHO DEFINITION “Vaccine hesitancy refers to delay in acceptance or refusal of vaccines despite availability of vaccination services. -
Understanding Variants COVID-19 Vaccine Astrazeneca
Understanding Variants COVID-19 Vaccine AstraZeneca Latest data released Summary of the variant data for COVID-19 Vaccine AstraZeneca It is well known that viruses constantly change through mutation, which can lead to the emergence of new variants. Only those that demonstrate increased transmission or virulence are considered variants of concern. Globally, there are currently four such variants: • B.1.1.7, also known as the UK, or Kent variant • P.1, also known as the Brazilian variant • B.1.351, also known as the South African variant • B.1.617.2, also known as the Indian Variant We now have data – from non-clinical, pre-clinical, and clinical studies, as well as emerging real- world evidence – that demonstrate the effectiveness of COVID-19 Vaccine AstraZeneca against these new variants. No variants have emerged that significantly undermine efficacy of our vaccine against severe disease and hospitalisation. • Clinical studies confirmed the vaccine is effective against the Kent (B.1.1.7) variant, with comparable efficacy to the predominant global strain (the Victoria strain) (VE: 74.6%; CI: 1 The impact of virus variants 41.6% to 88.9%). • In vitro analyses using sera from convalescent individuals that received COVID-19 Vaccine When a virus is circulating widely in a AstraZeneca demonstrate that antibodies from vaccinated individuals were able to neutralise population, it has a greater opportunity to the Brazil (P.1.) variant and the Indian variant (B.1.617.2) to a similar extent as the Victoria replicate. With this, the likelihood that the 2 strain. virus will change a bit, or that variants will 6 • In addition, an early real-world analysis shows for the first time that two doses of COVID-19 appear, also increases. -
COVID-19 Vaccine Hesitancy 3
Article 1 Lack of trust, conspiracy beliefs and social media use predict 2 COVID-19 vaccine hesitancy 3 Will Jennings1, Gerry Stoker1, Hannah Bunting1, Viktor Orri Valgarðsson1, Jen Gaskell1, Daniel Devine2, Lawrence 4 McKay1 and Melinda C. Mills3*. 5 1 University of Southampton, UK. 6 2 St Hilda’s College, University of Oxford, UK. 7 3 Leverhulme Centre for Demographic Science & Nuffield College, University of Oxford, UK. 8 * Correspondence: MM [email protected]. 9 Abstract: As COVID-19 vaccines are rolled out across the world, there are growing concerns about 10 the role that trust, belief in conspiracy theories and spread of misinformation through social media 11 impact vaccine hesitancy. We use a nationally representative survey of 1,476 adults in the UK be- 12 tween December 12 to 18, 2020 and five focus groups conducted in the same period. Trust is a core 13 predictor, with distrust in vaccines in general and mistrust in government raising vaccine hesi- 14 tancy. Trust in health institutions and experts and perceived personal threat are vital, with focus 15 groups revealing that COVID-19 vaccine hesitancy is driven by a misunderstanding of herd im- 16 munity as providing protection, fear of rapid vaccine development and side effects and belief the 17 virus is man-made and used for population control. Particularly those who obtain information 18 from relatively unregulated social media sources such as YouTube that have recommendations 19 tailored by watch history and hold general conspiratorial beliefs are less willing to be vaccinated. 20 Since an increasing number of individuals use social media for gathering health information, in- 21 terventions require action from governments, health officials and social media companies.