Demographic Study for the Scarsdale Public Schools

Home , Ramaz School, Scarsdale High School

Demographic Study

for the

Scarsdale Public Schools

December 2018

Prepared By:

Richard S. Grip, Ed.D.

Table of Contents

Page

Executive Summary ...... 3

Introduction ...... 7

Demographic Characteristics of the Geographical Area Served by the Scarsdale Public Schools ...... 7

District Overview ...... 10

Explanation of the Cohort-Survival Ratio Method ...... 10

Historical Enrollment Trends ...... 12

Non-Public School Enrollments ...... 16

Kindergarten Replacement ...... 20

Birth Data ...... 22

New Housing in the Scarsdale Public Schools Attendance Area ...... 26 Distribution of Homes by Decade Built ...... 27

Home Sales ...... 28

Enrollment Projections ...... 29

Projected Enrollments by Grade Configuration ...... 32

Elementary School Projections ...... 33

Edgewood Elementary School ...... 33 Fox Meadow Elementary School ...... 34 Greenacres Elementary School ...... 35 Heathcote Elementary School ...... 36 Quaker Ridge Elementary School ...... 37

Executive Summary

Statistical Forecasting completed a demographic study for the Scarsdale Public Schools. The purpose of the study is to project grade-by-grade enrollments from 2019-20 through 2023- 24, a five-year projection period. Information was also collected related to community birth rates, historical enrollments, and new housing starts.

Overview of Scarsdale Public Schools Attendance Area

The Scarsdale Public Schools attendance area is comprised of the Town and Village of Scarsdale (“Scarsdale”) and the Town of Mamaroneck (“Mamaroneck”). A very small section of Mamaroneck attends the Scarsdale Public Schools (on the northwest boundary with Scarsdale) while all of Scarsdale attends the school district. In the 2012-2016 American Community Survey (“ACS”) published by the United States Census Bureau, there were 18,342 residents in the Scarsdale Public Schools attendance area, which is nearly unchanged from 2000 (18,425).

Regarding race, Whites were the largest race and comprised 81.4% of the attendance area in the 2012-2016 ACS while Asians were the second-largest race at 14.0%.

With respect to nativity, 22.9% of residents were foreign-born in the 2012-2016 ACS as compared to 18.0% in 2000, a gain of 4.9 percentage points. China and India were the largest sources, accounting for 18.7% and 8.6% respectively of the foreign-born population.

Historical Enrollment Trends

Historical enrollments (K-12) were analyzed from 2009-10 through 2018-19, a ten-year period. In general, enrollment has been fairly stable over the last ten years, varying from 4,718- 4,821, which is a range of 103 students. In 2018-19, enrollment is 4,726, which is nearly identical to the 2009-10 enrollment of 4,718.

For grades K-5, enrollment declined through 2012-13 before stabilizing. However, in 2018-19, enrollment declined to 2,070, which is a loss of 110 students from the 2009-10 enrollment of 2,180.

For grades 6-8 at Scarsdale Middle School, enrollments were fairly stable from 2009-10 to 2018-19, varying from 1,105-1,179 students per year, which is a range of 74 students. Enrollment is 1,126 in 2018-19, which is slightly higher than the 2009-10 enrollment of 1,105.

Finally, at Scarsdale High School, which contains grades 9-12, enrollments increased, in general, from 2009-10 through 2014-15 before stabilizing. In 2018-19, enrollment is 1,530, which is a gain of 97 students from the 2009-10 enrollment of 1,433.

Non-Public School Enrollments

The number of Scarsdale Public Schools resident students (K-12) attending non-public schools declined from 448 in 2013-14 to 380 in 2017-18. Approximately 7.4% of the total Scarsdale resident student population attended non-public schools in 2017-18. More than one- third (35.5%) of the non-public school population attended one of five schools in 2017-18: Salanter Akiba Riverdale Academy, The Masters School, The Windward School, Westchester Day School, and Solomon Schechter School - Westchester.

Kindergarten Replacements

Kindergarten replacements were analyzed to determine whether there was any relationship between overall enrollment change and kindergarten replacement, which is the numerical difference between the number of graduating 12th graders and the number of entering kindergarten students. The district has experienced negative kindergarten replacement in eight of the last nine years, ranging from 25-123 students per year. Negative kindergarten replacement occurs when the number of graduating 12th grade students is larger than the number of kindergarten students replacing them in the next year. In the last four years, the district has lost an average of 78 students per year due to kindergarten replacement. In each of the last nine years, the district’s losses due to negative kindergarten replacement were partially offset (or totally, resulting in an enrollment increase) by a net inward migration of students in the other grades (K to 1, 1 to 2, 2 to 3, etc.).

Birth Counts

The number of births was used to project kindergarten enrollments. In general, the number of births has been declining in the Scarsdale Public Schools attendance area. Births declined from a high of 172 in 2004 to 88 in 2013, which is nearly a 50% loss. In the last three years, the number of births has been fairly stable, ranging from 96-99 births per year, but is still far below the 2004 birth total. Prior to 2018-19, the decline in the number of births did not significantly affect the kindergarten total five years later, which had been fairly stable, ranging from 307-350 students per year.

Regarding fertility rates, the fertility rate in the Scarsdale Public Schools attendance area is lower than those of both Westchester County and the State of New York.

The 2000 and 2010 age-sex diagrams for the Scarsdale Public Schools attendance area were created to show the percentage of males and females in each age class. The largest number of individuals in 2000 was aged 10-14 for males and 40-44 for females. In 2010, the largest cohort was aged 10-14 for both males and females, which corresponds approximately with children in grades 5-9. From 2000 to 2010, the greatest declines, both in number and percentage points, occurred in the 35-39 age group for males and females. There was also a significant decline in the 30-34 age group for females, which corresponds to the ages (30-39) when many females have their children. The low fertility rate and the declining number of females in the 30- 34 and 35-39 age groups have likely led to the declining birth rate in the Scarsdale Public Schools attendance area. The greatest gains, both in number and percentage points, occurred in 5 the 15-19 age group for males, which corresponds approximately with high school and college- aged individuals, and the 65-69 age group for females.

Potential New Housing

Municipal representatives from Scarsdale and Mamaroneck were contacted regarding potential new housing in the Scarsdale Public Schools attendance area. There are no residential developments under construction, nor are there development applications that have been approved by the planning board in Scarsdale or in the section of Mamaroneck that sends to the Scarsdale Public Schools. Most residential construction in Scarsdale and Mamaroneck has been limited to building new homes after the demolition of an existing older home (“knockdowns”), which is a net change of zero housing units.

Despite the limited residential construction, there is the potential for up to 250 multi- family units on an empty parking lot (“Freightway site”) owned by the Village of Scarsdale, which has not received approval and is very preliminary in nature. The baseline enrollment projections were not adjusted since it is unclear whether the Freightway site will be developed and whether occupation would occur within the next five years, which is the timeframe of this study.

Home Sales

Home sales in the Scarsdale Public Schools attendance area were reviewed from 2000- 2018. Home sales peaked at 279 in 2002 before declining and stabilizing through 2007. However, the number of home sales plummeted to 142 in 2008 due to the banking and financial crises. Beginning in 2009, the number of sales steadily increased through 2014 (253 home sales). Since then, the number of sales has been fairly stable and very similar to the five-year period (2003-2007) before the banking and financial crises.

Enrollment Projections

K-12 enrollments were computed for a five-year period, 2019-20 through 2023-24, in three separate projections due to the variability that has occurred in the district’s birth-to- kindergarten survival ratios. Each of the projections yielded similar results, whereby total enrollment is projected to decline throughout the projection period. In the first projection (High Projection), enrollment is projected to be 4,519 in 2023-24, which would be a loss of 207 students from the 2018-19 enrollment of 4,726. In the second projection (Medium Projection), enrollment is projected to decline at a faster rate and be 4,456 in 2023-24, which would be a loss of 270 students from the 2018-19 enrollment. Finally, in the third projection (Low Projection), enrollment is projected to be 4,437 in 2023-24, which would be a loss of 289 students from the 2018-19 enrollment.

Negative kindergarten replacement is expected to continue to occur in the future. The magnitude of the negative kindergarten replacement is projected to be fairly stable throughout the projection period, ranging from 91-127 students per year.

At the elementary level containing grades K-5, enrollment is projected to steadily decline throughout the projection period. Enrollments are projected to range between 1,760-1,822 students in 2023-24, which would represent a loss of 248-310 students from the 2018-19 enrollment of 2,070.

For Scarsdale Middle School (grades 6-8), enrollment is projected to slowly increase through 2021-22 before reversing trend. Enrollments are projected to range between 1,135- 1,148 students in 2023-24, which would represent a gain of 9-22 students from the 2018-19 enrollment of 1,126.

For Scarsdale High School (grades 9-12), enrollment is projected to be fairly stable throughout the projection period. Enrollments are projected to range between 1,539-1,552 students in 2023-24, which would represent a gain of 9-22 students from the 2018-19 enrollment of 1,530.

Final Thoughts

In the next five years, total enrollment (K-12) is projected to decline in the Scarsdale Public Schools, which will mostly occur in the elementary grades. The declining birth rate has resulted in a smaller kindergarten cohort (259 students) in 2018-19. It is projected that kindergarten classes will range between 267-286 students in the next five years. While this is larger than the 2018-19 class, it is still smaller than the 307-350 kindergarten students that enrolled from 2009-10 to 2017-18. In the short term, the elementary cohorts will decline as the smaller kindergarten grades enter the school district.

The increase in the number of home sales in the last five years has led to an increase in the number of families with children under the age of five moving into the attendance area, as parents desire to have their children educated in a highly-rated and excellent school district. The inward migration is evident in the cohort survival ratios, particularly in the birth-to-kindergarten ratios. However, the inward migration of students is not enough to overcome the existing negative kindergarten replacement, which will likely result in declining enrollment in the school district.

Introduction

Demographic Characteristics of the Geographical Area Served by the Scarsdale Public Schools

The National Center for Education Statistics (“NCES”) compiles Census data by school district geographical boundaries, since many school district boundaries are often not contiguous with municipal boundaries. As such, the Town and Village of Scarsdale (“Scarsdale”) and the Town of Mamaroneck (“Mamaroneck”), which send students to the Scarsdale Public Schools, do not share identical boundaries with the school district. A very small section of Mamaroneck attends the Scarsdale Public Schools (on the northwest boundary with Scarsdale) while all of Scarsdale attends the school district. In Table 1 following, selected demographic characteristics of the geographical area served by the Scarsdale Public Schools (subsequently referred to as the Scarsdale Public Schools attendance area) are compared from the 2000 Census and the 2012- 2016 American Community Survey (“ACS”), also published by the United States Census Bureau. The information reflects the entire population served by the school district and is not restricted to schoolchildren. The ACS replaced the long form of the Census, last administered in 2000 to approximately 16% of the population in the United States. For small populations such as the one served by the school district, ACS data represent a sample collected over a five-year time period, where the estimates represent the average characteristics between January 2012 and December 2016. This information does not represent a single point in time like the long form of earlier Censuses. The five-year ACS contains 1% annual samples from all households and persons from 2012 to 2016, resulting in a 5% sample of the population. Due to the small sample size, the sampling error is quite large, which increases the degree of uncertainty of the estimated values. Therefore, the forthcoming ACS data should be interpreted with caution.

Located in Westchester County, the Scarsdale Public Schools attendance area contains a land area of approximately 7.12 square miles, with an additional 0.01 square miles of water area. Regarding its population, there were 18,342 residents identified in the 2012-2016 ACS, which is nearly unchanged from 2000 (18,425).

With respect to race, the racial composition of the Scarsdale Public Schools attendance area has not changed appreciably since 2000. Whites were the largest race and comprised 81.4% of the attendance area in the 2012-2016 ACS, which is a loss of 2.8 percentage points from the 2000 percentage (84.2%). The second-largest race was Asians at 14.0%, which is a gain of 1.4 percentage points from the 2000 percentage. Hispanics in the Census population can be part of the White, Black, Asian, or any of the other race categories. It is not a mutually exclusive race category. The concentration of persons having Hispanic origin increased from 3.2% in the 2000 Census to 4.3% in the 2012-2016 ACS, a gain of 1.1 percentage points.

Table 1 Demographic Characteristics of the Geographical Area Served by the Scarsdale Public Schools

2000 Census1 2012-2016 ACS Total Population 18,425 18,342 Race Origin White 15,520 (84.2%) 14,934 (81.4%) Black/African American 285 (1.5%) 171 (0.9%) American Indian/ Alaska Native 40 (0.2%) 0 (0.0%) Asian 2,315 (12.6%) 2,577 (14.0%) Native Hawaiian/ Pacific Islander 0 (0.0%) 8 (0.0%) Other race 110 (0.6%) 67 (0.4%) Two or more races 150 (0.8%) 585 (3.2%) Total 100.0%2 100.0%2 Hispanic origin 585 (3.2%) 787 (4.3%) Place of Birth Foreign-Born 18.0% 22.9% Age Under 18 33.1% 31.9% 18-64 55.4% 53.5% 65 and over 11.5% 14.6% Median Age N/A 42.5 years Educational Attainment Bachelor’s degree or higher 79.9% 87.9% Graduate or professional degree 50.1% 57.2% Income Median family income $200,001 $250,000+3 Percentage of Persons in Poverty aged 5-17 0.8% 1.6% Housing Units Total number 6,005 5,863 Occupied units 5,850 (97.4%) 5,612 (95.7%) Vacant units 155 (2.6%) 251 (4.3%) Owner-occupied units 5,345 (91.4%) 5,035 (89.7%) Renter-occupied units 500 (8.6%) 577 (10.3%) Median value of an owner-occupied unit $700,300 $1,311,900 Avg. household size of owner-occupied unit 3.14 3.28 Avg. household size of renter-occupied unit 3.19 3.14 Housing Type2 Total number 6,005 5,863 1-unit, attached or detached 5,625 (93.7%) 5,581 (95.2%) Two units 45 (0.7%) 5 (0.1%) Three or four units 15 (0.2%) 0 (0.0%) Five to nine units 70 (1.2%) 39 (0.7%) 10 to 19 units 50 (0.8%) 65 (1.1%) 20 or more units 200 (3.3%) 168 (2.9%) Mobile home 0 (0.0%) 5 (0.1%) Source: National Center for Education Statistics Note: 1Each cell in the Census 2000 special tabulation matrix has been independently rounded. As a result of the cell rounding process: 0 remains 0, 1-7 rounds to 4, 8 or greater rounds to the nearest multiple of 5. Also note that all totals, subtotals, and derived measures were computed prior to rounding and independent cell rounding process disrupts table additivity. 2Data may not sum to 100.0% due to rounding. 3An exact value was not available in the 2012-2016 ACS. 9

With respect to nativity, 22.9% of residents were foreign-born in the 2012-2016 ACS as compared to 18.0% in 2000, a gain of 4.9 percentage points. As a point of comparison, Westchester County’s foreign-born percentage was 25.5%, which is slightly higher than that of the Scarsdale Public Schools attendance area. While not shown in the table, place of birth, which serves as a proxy for country of origin, indicates that Japan and China were the largest sources of immigrants in 2000, accounting for 18.4% and 8.3% respectively of the foreign-born population. In the 2012-2016 ACS, China is now the largest source, accounting for 18.7% of the foreign-born population, while India is the second-largest source at 8.6%.

Regarding the population’s age distribution, the percentage of people under the age of 18 has declined from 33.1% to 31.9% over this time period, a loss of 1.2 percentage points. The median age of the Scarsdale Public Schools attendance area was 42.5 years in the 2012-2016 ACS, which is slightly higher than that of Westchester County (40.5 years).

Regarding educational attainment for adults aged 25 and over, 87.9% of the population had a bachelor’s degree or higher in the 2012-2016 ACS as compared to 79.9% in the 2000 Census, a gain of 8.0 percentage points. Westchester County had a significantly lower percentage of persons having a bachelor’s degree or higher (47.3%) in the 2012-2016 ACS. Persons with graduate or professional degrees increased from 50.1% to 57.2% in the Scarsdale Public Schools attendance area during this time period.

Median family income increased from $200,001 in the 2000 Census to $250,000+1 in the 2012-2016 ACS. By comparison, median family income in Westchester County is $110,543, which is less than half of the Scarsdale Public Schools attendance area. During this time period, the percentage of school-age children (5-17) that are in poverty doubled from 0.8% to 1.6%.

Regarding housing, there were 5,863 housing units in the Scarsdale Public Schools attendance area in the 2012-2016 ACS, which is a loss of 142 housing units (-2.4%) from 2000. During this time period, the occupancy rate declined from 97.4% to 95.7%. Regarding occupied units, 10.3% of the occupied units consisted of renters in the 2012-2016 ACS, which is a gain of 1.7 percentage points from the 2000 Census (8.6%). Household size has increased for owner- occupied units but has declined slightly for renter-occupied units over this time period. The median home price of an owner-occupied unit in the 2012-2016 ACS was $1,311,900, which is nearly double the value reported in the 2000 Census ($700,300). The median home price of an owner-occupied unit in the Scarsdale Public Schools attendance area is more than double that of Westchester County ($507,300).

With respect to housing type, 95.2% of the homes in the 2012-2016 ACS were one-unit, either attached or detached, which is a 1.5 percentage-point gain from the 2000 Census. Housing with 20 or more units, which typically contain renters, was the second-largest home type and consisted of 2.9% of the housing stock in the 2012-2016 ACS. In general, there has been little change in the housing distribution since 2000.

1 The 2012-2016 American Community Survey did not identify the exact dollar amount. 10

District Overview

The Scarsdale Public Schools has a total of seven (7) schools that serve children in grades kindergarten through twelve. As discussed previously, the district receives children from Scarsdale and a small section of Mamaroneck. Children attend one of five (5) elementary schools for grades K-5: Edgewood Elementary School (“Edgewood”), Fox Meadow Elementary School (“Fox Meadow”), Greenacres Elementary School (“Greenacres”), Heathcote Elementary School (“Heathcote”), or Quaker Ridge Elementary School (“Quaker Ridge”). Children than attend Scarsdale Middle School for grades 6-8 and Scarsdale High School for grades 9-12. Locations of the schools with respect to the district’s boundaries are shown in Figure 1.

Explanation of the Cohort-Survival Ratio Method

In 1930, Dublin and Lodka provided an explicit age breakdown, which enabled analysts to follow each cohort through its life stages and apply appropriate birth and death rates for each generation. A descendant of this process is the Cohort-Survival Ratio (“CSR”) method. In this method, a survival ratio is computed for each grade progression, which essentially compares the number of students in a particular grade to the number of students in the previous grade during the previous year. The survival ratio indicates whether the enrollment is stable, increasing, or decreasing. A survival ratio of 1.00 indicates stable enrollment, less than 1.00 indicates declining enrollment, while greater than 1.00 indicates increasing enrollment. If, for example, a school district had 100 fourth graders and the next year only had 95 fifth graders, the survival ratio would be 0.95.

The CSR method assumes that what happened in the past will also happen in the future. In essence, this method provides a linear projection of the population. The CSR method is most applicable for districts that have relatively stable increasing or decreasing trends without any major unpredictable fluctuations from year to year. In school districts encountering rapid growth not experienced historically (a change in the historical trend), the CSR method must be modified and supplemented with additional information.

In this study, historical enrollments were obtained from the New York State Basic Educational Data System (“BEDS”) and the Scarsdale Public Schools and were used to project enrollments for five years into the future. Survival ratios were calculated using historical data from the last ten years for birth to kindergarten, kindergarten to first grade, first grade to second grade, etc. Due to the fluctuation in survival ratios from year to year, it is appropriate to calculate an average survival ratio, which is then used to calculate grade enrollments five years into the future.

Figure 1 School Locations –Scarsdale Public Schools

Historical Enrollment Trends

Historical enrollments (grades K-12) for the Scarsdale Public Schools from 2009-10 through 2018-19, a ten-year period, are shown in Figure 2 and Table 2. In general, enrollment has been fairly stable over the last ten years, varying from 4,718-4,821, which is a range of 103 students. In 2018-19, enrollment is 4,726, which is nearly identical to the 2009-10 enrollment of 4,718. Figure 2 Scarsdale Public Schools Historical Enrollments (K-12) 2009-10 to 2018-19

5,000 4,718 4,766 4,721 4,739 4,787 4,821 4,775 4,778 4,769 4,726

4,000

3,000

2,000

1,000 Number ofStudents

0 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 Year Table 3 following shows computed grade-by-grade survival ratios from 2009-10 to 2018-19. In addition, the average, minimum, and maximum survival ratios are shown for the past ten years along with the four-, five-, and six-year averages, which were used to project enrollments. The average survival ratios also indicate the net migration by grade, where values over 1.000 reflect net inward migration and values below 1.000 reflect net outward migration. Ten of the thirteen average survival ratios (four- and five-year trends) were above 1.000, indicating a general inward migration of students. In comparing the five-year averages with the ten-year averages, the most notable difference was for the birth-to-kindergarten cohort, which has experienced an increase in its ratio in the near term.

Factors related to inward migration include families with school-age children purchasing an existing home or new housing unit. The reasons for families moving into a community vary. For instance, a family could move into the Scarsdale Public Schools attendance area for economic reasons and proximity to employment. Another plausible reason for inward migration is the reputation of the school district, as the appeal of a school district draws families into a community, resulting in the transfer of students into the district. On the flip side, outward migration is caused by families with children moving out of the community, perhaps due to difficulty in finding employment or affordable housing. Outward migration in the school district can also be caused by parents choosing to withdraw their children from public school to attend private or parochial schools, or to attend a different public school district. In the case of the Scarsdale Public Schools, the reasons for migration are not explicitly known (such as for economic reasons or the appeal of the school district), as exit and entrance interviews would need to be conducted for all children leaving or entering the district. 13

Table 2 Scarsdale Public Schools Historical Enrollments (K-12) 2009-10 to 2018-19

1 2 K-5 3 6-8 4 9-12 K-12 Year K 1 2 3 4 5 SE 6 7 8 SE 9 10 11 12 SE Total Total Total Total 2009-10 321 361 349 381 380 388 0 2,180 370 395 340 0 1,105 338 361 369 353 12 1,433 4,718

2010-11 307 357 372 366 380 388 0 2,170 407 370 398 4 1,179 346 336 358 368 9 1,417 4,766

2011-12 310 333 362 367 367 379 0 2,118 382 408 367 3 1,160 393 355 331 356 8 1,443 4,721

2012-13 313 324 345 377 380 376 0 2,115 374 383 412 3 1,172 373 400 355 322 2 1,452 4,739

2013-14 350 320 339 365 376 381 0 2,131 381 366 385 2 1,134 397 369 401 351 4 1,522 4,787

2014-15 326 362 333 366 363 395 0 2,145 383 383 362 4 1,132 378 402 362 399 3 1,544 4,821

2015-16 319 343 366 331 369 372 0 2,100 403 380 387 3 1,173 357 383 400 359 3 1,502 4,775

2016-17 318 336 364 374 345 382 0 2,119 376 395 370 1 1,142 380 360 385 392 0 1,517 4,778

2017-18 325 329 350 368 387 346 0 2,105 377 380 391 0 1,148 384 380 370 382 0 1,516 4,769

2018-19 259 335 341 359 387 389 0 2,070 367 382 377 0 1,126 400 378 380 372 0 1,530 4,726 Notes: 1Data were provided by the New York State Department of Education BEDS reports and the Scarsdale Public Schools. 2Ungraded special education enrollment at the elementary school level 3Ungraded special education enrollment at the middle school level 4Ungraded special education enrollment at the high school level

Table 3 Scarsdale Public Schools Historical Survival Ratios 2009-10 to 2018-19

Progression Years B-K K-1 1-2 2-3 3-4 4-5 5-6 6-7 7-8 8-9 9-10 10-11 11-12

2009-10 to 2010-11 2.1172 1.1121 1.0305 1.0487 0.9974 1.0211 1.0490 1.0000 1.0076 1.0176 0.9941 0.9917 0.9973

2010-11 to 2011-12 2.0667 1.0847 1.0140 0.9866 1.0027 0.9974 0.9845 1.0025 0.9919 0.9874 1.0260 0.9851 0.9944

2011-12 to 2012-13 2.4264 1.0452 1.0360 1.0414 1.0354 1.0245 0.9868 1.0026 1.0098 1.0163 1.0178 1.0000 0.9728

2012-13 to 2013-14 2.6316 1.0224 1.0463 1.0580 0.9973 1.0026 1.0133 0.9786 1.0052 0.9636 0.9893 1.0025 0.9887

2013-14 to 2014-15 2.5669 1.0343 1.0406 1.0796 0.9945 1.0505 1.0052 1.0052 0.9891 0.9818 1.0126 0.9810 0.9950

2014-15 to 2015-16 3.1900 1.0521 1.0110 0.9940 1.0082 1.0248 1.0203 0.9922 1.0104 0.9862 1.0132 0.9950 0.9917

2015-16 to 2016-17 2.8649 1.0533 1.0612 1.0219 1.0423 1.0352 1.0108 0.9801 0.9737 0.9819 1.0084 1.0052 0.9800

2016-17 to 2017-18 2.5391 1.0346 1.0417 1.0110 1.0348 1.0029 0.9869 1.0106 0.9899 1.0378 1.0000 1.0278 0.9922

2017-18 to 2018-19 2.9432 1.0308 1.0365 1.0257 1.0516 1.0052 1.0607 1.0133 0.9921 1.0230 0.9844 1.0000 1.0054

Maximum Ratio 3.1900 1.1121 1.0612 1.0796 1.0516 1.0505 1.0607 1.0133 1.0104 1.0378 1.0260 1.0278 1.0054

Minimum Ratio 2.0667 1.0224 1.0110 0.9866 0.9945 0.9974 0.9845 0.9786 0.9737 0.9636 0.9844 0.9810 0.9728

Avg. 4-Year Ratios 2.8843 1.0396 1.0465 1.0195 1.0429 1.0144 1.0195 1.0013 0.9852 1.0143 0.9976 1.0110 0.9925

Avg. 5-Year Ratios 2.8208 1.0427 1.0376 1.0131 1.0342 1.0170 1.0197 0.9991 0.9915 1.0072 1.0015 1.0070 0.9923

Avg. 6-Year Ratios 2.7893 1.0410 1.0382 1.0264 1.0263 1.0237 1.0168 1.0003 0.9910 1.0022 1.0037 1.0018 0.9929

Avg. 10-Year Ratios 2.5940 1.0522 1.0353 1.0297 1.0183 1.0182 1.0131 0.9984 0.9966 0.9995 1.0051 0.9987 0.9908 Diff. Between 5-Year +0.2268 -0.0095 +0.0023 -0.0165 +0.0160 -0.0012 +0.0066 +0.0007 -0.0051 +0.0077 -0.0036 +0.0083 +0.0015 and 10-Year Ratios 15

Historical enrollments are also shown in Table 2 and Figure 3 by elementary, middle, and high school grade levels (K-5, 6-8, and 9-12). Self-contained special education/ungraded students were incorporated into each of the totals.

For grades K-5, enrollment declined through 2012-13 before stabilizing. However, in 2018-19, enrollment declined to 2,070, which is a loss of 110 students from the 2009-10 enrollment of 2,180.

Figure 3 Scarsdale Public Schools Historical Enrollments by Level 2009-10 to 2018-19 2,500

2,180 2,170 2,131 2,145 2,118 2,115 2,100 2,119 2,105 2,070

2,000

1,522 1,544 1,502 1,517 1,516 1,530 1,433 1,443 1,452 1,500 1,417

1,000 1,179 1,160 1,172 1,173

1,105 1,134 1,132 1,142 1,148 1,126 Number ofStudents

500

Gr. K-5 Gr. 6-8 Gr. 9-12

0 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 Year

Non-Public School Enrollments

In Table 4 following, the number of resident students from the Scarsdale Public Schools attendance area (“Scarsdale resident students”) who are attending non-public schools is shown from 2013-14 through 2017-18, a five-year period. Counts are shown by school for elementary (K-6) and secondary (7-12). Pre-kindergarten students were excluded. The number of non- public students (K-12) declined from 448 in 2013-14 to 354 in 2016-17 before increasing to 380 in 2017-18. At the elementary level, the number of Scarsdale resident students attending non- public schools declined from 195 in 2013-14 to 146 in 2016-17 before increasing to 157 in 2017- 18. At the secondary level, the number of Scarsdale resident students attending non-public schools declined from 253 in 2013-14 to 200 in 2015-16 before increasing in each of the last two years. In 2017-18, the number of Scarsdale resident students attending non-public schools represented 7.4% of the total Scarsdale resident student population.

In 2017-18, more than one-third (35.5%) of the non-public school population attended one of five schools. The five non-public schools that had the greatest number of Scarsdale resident students in 2017-18 were:

1. Salanter Akiba Riverdale Academy – 30 students (7.9% of Scarsdale’s non-public population) 2. The Masters School – 28 students (7.4%) 2. (tie) The Windward School – 28 students (7.4%) 4. Westchester Day School – 25 students (6.6%) 5. Solomon Schechter School, Westchester – 24 students (6.3%)

Table 4 Non-Public School Enrollments of Scarsdale Public Schools Resident Students

2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 School K-6 7-12 Total K-6 7-12 Total K-6 7-12 Total K-6 7-12 Total K-6 7-12 Total Abraham Joshua Heschel School 0 2 2 0 2 2 0 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 Academy of our Lady of Good Counsel HS 0 0 0 0 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Alcott School 0 0 0 1 0 1 2 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 Annunciation School 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Archbishop Stepinac High School 0 7 7 0 6 6 0 13 13 0 12 12 0 8 8 Birch Wathen Lenox School 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 British International School of New York 3 0 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Chapin School (The) 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Collegiate School 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 1 1 0 1 1 Convent of the Sacred Heart 0 1 1 0 1 1 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 Dalton School (The) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 1 0 1 Dominican Academy 0 2 2 0 2 2 0 1 1 0 1 1 0 0 0 Dwight School (The) 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 1 1 2 3 5 2 1 3 Elmwood Country Day School 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 1 Ethical Culture Fieldston Middle School 1 2 3 0 3 3 1 1 2 1 2 3 1 2 3 Ethical Culture Fieldston School 0 3 3 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 2 2 0 2 2 Ethical Culture The Fieldston Lower School 2 0 2 6 0 6 5 0 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 Eyes and Ears of the World, Inc. 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Fordham Preparatory School 0 2 2 0 3 3 0 2 2 0 2 2 0 1 1 French-American School 16 14 30 21 6 27 22 6 28 0 0 0 0 0 0 French-American School - 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 2 French-American School - 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 6 8 14 2 3 5 French-American School - 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 11 0 11 6 0 6 French-American School - 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 6 0 6 Fusion Academy Lincoln Center 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 1 1 0 1 1 Fusion Academy Westchester 0 1 1 0 4 4 0 3 3 0 1 1 0 2 2 German International School NY 7 8 15 10 7 17 10 10 20 7 10 17 5 7 12 Gow School (The) 0 1 1 0 1 1 0 1 1 0 4 4 0 5 5 Greek American Institute of NY 0 1 1 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Hackley School 2 6 8 4 8 12 3 6 9 5 6 11 7 5 12 Harvey School (The) 0 11 11 0 7 7 0 5 5 0 6 6 0 6 6 Holy Name of Jesus School 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Horace Mann School 0 0 0 7 11 18 2 12 14 2 9 11 2 4 6 Horace Mann School Lower Division 4 0 4 2 0 2 3 0 3 3 0 3 2 0 2 Horace Mann School Middle Division 2 10 12 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Horace Mann School Nursery School and 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 Kindergarten Horace Mann Upper School 0 25 25 0 20 20 2 12 14 0 15 15 0 17 17

Hudson Country Montessori School 5 0 5 5 0 5 2 0 2 0 0 0 2 1 3 Immaculate Heart of Mary School 4 2 6 2 1 3 1 2 3 4 2 6 5 0 5 Iona Prep School 1 7 8 1 9 10 0 8 8 0 5 5 0 5 5 Keio Academy of New York 0 3 3 0 4 4 0 3 3 0 1 1 0 3 3 Kodomono Kuni 3 0 3 3 0 3 1 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 1 Loyola School 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Lycee Francais De Ny 1 2 3 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 2 Lyceum Kennedy 0 1 1 0 1 1 4 2 6 0 0 0 0 1 1 Manhattan Christian Academy 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Maplebrook School 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 Maria Regina High School 0 1 1 0 1 1 0 1 1 0 1 1 0 1 1 Masters School (The) 4 24 28 5 24 29 3 16 19 4 17 21 6 22 28 Milestone School (The) 1 0 1 2 0 2 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 Millbrook School 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 Mohawk Country Day School 3 0 3 8 0 8 7 0 7 7 0 7 4 0 4 Montfort Academy (The) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 3 Mt. St. Michael Academy 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Northwood School 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 2 2 0 2 2 0 0 0 Our Lady of Sorrows School 1 1 2 4 0 4 1 0 1 0 1 1 0 1 1 Preston High School 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 Professional Children’s School 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 Ramaz Lower School 1 0 1 1 0 1 1 0 1 1 0 1 1 0 1 Ramaz Middle School 1 0 1 1 0 1 0 1 1 0 1 1 0 0 0 Ramaz School 0 29 29 0 30 30 0 23 23 0 21 21 0 17 17 Regis High School 0 1 1 0 1 1 0 1 1 0 1 1 0 2 2 Ridgeway Nursery School and Kindergarten 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 1 0 1 0 0 0 Rippowam Cisqua School (The) 1 0 1 0 1 1 2 1 3 3 0 3 4 0 4 Riverdale Country School 3 2 5 1 3 4 1 5 6 2 6 8 4 6 10 Rye Country Day School 4 5 9 4 6 10 4 5 9 1 6 7 2 9 11 Sacred Heart Elementary School 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 2 Sacred Heart High School 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 3 3 0 1 1 0 0 0 Sacred Heart School 4 0 4 1 1 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Salanter Akiba Riverdale Academy 24 11 35 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 30 30 Salesian High School 0 5 5 0 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Sarah Lawrence Early Childhood Center 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 2 School of the Holy Child 1 5 6 1 6 7 0 0 0 0 6 6 0 6 6 Shefa School 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 Solomon Schechter School - Westchester 44 0 44 35 0 35 34 0 34 31 0 31 24 0 24 Solomon Schechter - Upper School 1 19 20 0 12 12 3 15 18 5 16 21 9 11 20 Soundview Prep School 0 3 3 0 2 2 0 2 2 0 8 8 0 6 6 St. Augustine School 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 St. Barnabas High School 0 1 1 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 St. Eugene School 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 3 0 3 St. Joseph School 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 St. Lucy School 0 0 0 2 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Sts. John & Paul School 1 2 3 5 1 6 2 0 2 0 0 0 2 0 2

Stephen Gaynor School 3 1 4 2 0 2 1 0 1 1 0 1 0 0 0 Storm King School 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 Thornton Donovan School 2 7 9 2 7 9 2 7 9 1 4 5 1 6 7 Transfiguration School 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 2 0 2 Trevor Day School (The) 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Trinity Pawling School 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 2 0 1 1 0 0 0 United Nations International School 1 1 2 0 2 2 1 1 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 Ursuline School 0 2 2 0 2 2 0 4 4 0 0 0 0 2 2 Westchester Day School 20 7 27 14 2 16 16 2 18 21 3 24 20 5 25 Westchester Torah Academy 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 2 2 0 2 Westfield Day School (The) 0 0 0 0 2 2 1 1 2 0 2 2 0 2 2 Windward School (The) 21 8 29 25 7 32 29 8 37 10 0 10 9 0 9 Windward School (The) - MS Campus 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 13 14 27 17 11 28 Winston Preparatory School 0 1 1 1 0 1 0 2 2 0 1 1 0 1 1 Xavier High School 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 1 1 Yeshiva University High School 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 York Prep School 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 Total 195 253 448 179 222 401 172 200 372 146 208 354 157 223 380 Source: New York State Department of Education BEDS Reports

Kindergarten Replacement

Kindergarten replacements were analyzed to determine whether there was any relationship between overall enrollment change and kindergarten replacement, which is the numerical difference between the number of graduating 12th graders and the number of entering kindergarten students. The district has experienced negative kindergarten replacement in eight of the last nine years. Negative kindergarten replacement occurs when the number of graduating 12th grade students is larger than the number of kindergarten students replacing them in the next year. Positive kindergarten replacement occurs when the number of graduating 12th grade students is less than the number of kindergarten students entering the district in the next year. As shown in Figure 4, negative kindergarten replacement has ranged from 25-123 students per year. In 2018-19, there was a loss of 123 students due to kindergarten replacement, as 382 twelfth graders graduated in 2017-18 and were replaced by 259 kindergarten students in 2018-19, which is the smallest kindergarten class in the last decade. In the last four years, the district has lost an average of 78 students per year due to kindergarten replacement.

Figure 4 Scarsdale Public Schools Historical Kindergarten Replacement 50 28 30

-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19

-30 -25

-50 -41 -46 -43

-70 -58 -67

Number ofStudents -90 -80

-110

-130 -123

-150 Year

Figure 5 shows the annual change in total enrollment compared to kindergarten replacement. As the figure demonstrates, there appears to be a strong relationship, statistically speaking, between the overall change in enrollment and kindergarten replacement. Although this data represents a small sample, the correlation coefficient between the two variables was 0.78. Correlation coefficients measure the relationship or association between two variables; this does not imply that there is cause and effect between the two variables. Other variables, known as lurking variables, may have an effect on the true relationship between kindergarten replacement and total enrollment change. Negative correlation coefficients indicate that as one variable is increasing (decreasing), the other variable is decreasing (increasing). Positive correlation coefficients indicate that as one of the variables increases (decreases), the other variable increases (decreases) as well. The computed linear correlation coefficient is always between –1 and +1. Values near -1 or +1 indicate a strong linear relationship between the variables while values near zero indicate a weak linear relationship. Based on the correlation of 0.78, there appears to be a strong relationship between enrollment change and kindergarten replacement in the school district in the last nine years.

In each of the last nine years, the district’s losses due to negative kindergarten replacement were partially offset (or totally, resulting in an enrollment increase) by a net inward migration of students in the other grades (K to 1, 1 to 2, 2 to 3, etc.). This was confirmed previously as ten of the thirteen average survival ratios in the four- and five-year trends were above 1.000.

Figure 5 Comparison of K-12 Enrollment Change and Kindergarten Replacement 75

48 48 50 34 28 25 18 3

0 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 -9 -25 -25

-50 -41 -46 -45 -43 -46 -43 -58 -75 -67 Number of Students of Number -80 -100 Enrollment Change Kindergarten Replacement -125 -123

-150 Year

Birth Data

Birth data were needed to compute kindergarten enrollments, which were calculated as follows. Birth data, lagged five years behind their respective kindergarten classes, were used to calculate the survival ratio for each birth-to-kindergarten cohort. For instance, in 2013, there were 88 births in the Scarsdale Public Schools attendance area. Five years later (the 2018-19 school year), 259 children enrolled in kindergarten, which is equal to a survival ratio of 2.943 from birth-to-kindergarten. Birth counts and birth-to-kindergarten survival ratios are displayed in Table 5. Values greater than 1.000 indicate that some children are born outside of a community’s boundaries and are attending kindergarten in the school district five years later, i.e., an inward migration of children. This type of inward migration is typical in school districts with excellent reputations, because the appeal of a good school district draws families into the community. Inward migration is also seen in communities where there are a large number of new housing starts (or home resales), with families moving into the community having children of age to attend kindergarten. Birth-to-kindergarten survival ratios that are below 1.000 indicate that a number of children born within a community are not attending kindergarten in the school district five years later. This is common in communities where a high proportion of children attend private, parochial, or out-of-district special education facilities, or where there is a net migration of families moving out of the community. It is also common in school districts that have a half-day kindergarten program where parents choose to send their child to a private full- day kindergarten for the first year.

Table 5 Birth Counts and Historical Birth-to-Kindergarten Survival Ratios in the Scarsdale Public Schools

Births in Kindergarten Birth-to- Birth Year1 School District Students Kindergarten Attendance Area Five Years Later Survival Ratio 2004 172 321 1.866 2005 145 307 2.117 2006 150 310 2.067 2007 129 313 2.426 2008 133 350 2.632 2009 127 326 2.567 2010 100 319 3.190 2011 111 318 2.865 2012 128 325 2.539 2013 88 259 2.943 2014 96 N/A N/A 2015 99 N/A N/A 2016 96 N/A N/A Note: 1Birth data were provided by the New York State Department of Health from 2004-2016.

Birth-to-kindergarten survival ratios have been significantly above 1.000 in each of the last ten years. However, in the last six years, birth-to-kindergarten survival ratios have increased, ranging from 2.539-3.190 (average = 2.789), as compared to the four years prior where they ranged from 1.866-2.426 (average = 2.119). This may reflect that a greater number of families with children under the age of 5 are moving into the community to enroll their children in kindergarten, or that fewer families are moving out of the Scarsdale Public Schools attendance area, or that more parents are choosing to enroll their child in public school rather than private or parochial school. As the birth-to-kindergarten survival ratios are significantly above 1.000, this indicates that many children who were born in other communities are enrolling in the school district.

Births by the school district’s overall attendance area were provided by the New York State Department of Health from 2004-2016. Birth counts for 2017 and 2018 were not yet available. Births were estimated for 2017 and 2018 as these cohorts will become the kindergarten classes of 2022 and 2023. Using a three-year rolling average, 97 births are projected for 2017 and 2018.

Figure 6 shows the number of births in the Scarsdale Public Schools attendance area since 2004. In general, the number of births has been declining in the Scarsdale Public Schools attendance area. Births declined from a high of 172 in 2004 to 88 in 2013, which is nearly a 50% loss. In the last three years, the number of births has been fairly stable, ranging from 96-99 births per year, but is still far below the 2004 birth total. Prior to 2018-19, the decline in the number of births did not significantly affect the kindergarten total five years later, which had been fairly stable, ranging from 307-350 students per year.

Figure 6 Scarsdale Public Schools Attendance Area Birth Counts 2004-2016 200 172 180 150 160 145 133

140 129 127 128

111 120 100 96 99 96 100 88

60 Number ofBirths

0 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Year

Regarding fertility rates, the fertility rate in the Scarsdale Public Schools attendance area is lower than those of both Westchester County and the State of New York. According to the 2012-2016 ACS, the fertility rate of women aged 15 to 50 in the Scarsdale Public Schools attendance area was 32 births per 1000 women. In comparison, the 2017 fertility rate in Westchester County was 43 births per 1,000 women and was 46 births per 1,000 women in New York State. However, it should be noted that while all three values are based on a sample, the Scarsdale Public Schools attendance area data has a margin of error that is much higher than the county and state data and may not reflect the “true” fertility rate in the attendance area.

Figures 7 and 8 show the age pyramids of males and females in the Scarsdale Public Schools attendance area from both the 2000 and 2010 Censuses. The largest number of individuals in 2000 was aged 10-14 for males and 40-44 for females. In 2010, the largest cohort was aged 10-14 for both males and females, which corresponds approximately with children in grades 5-9. As shown in Table 6, the greatest declines (shaded red), both in number and percentage points, occurred in the 35-39 age group for males and females. There was also a significant decline in the 30-34 age group for females, which corresponds to the ages (30-39) when many females have their children. The low fertility rate and the declining number of females in the 30-34 and 35-39 age groups have likely led to the declining birth rate in the Scarsdale Public Schools attendance area. The greatest gains (shaded blue), both in number and percentage points, occurred in the 15-19 age group for males, which corresponds approximately with high school and college-aged individuals, and the 65-69 age group for females.

Figure 7 Population Pyramid Scarsdale Public Schools Attendance Area 2000 Census 85+ 80-84 Females 75-79 70-74 Males 65-69 60-64 55-59 50-54 45-49 40-44 35-39

Age Age Classes 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14 5-9 Under 5

6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% Percent

Figure 8 Population Pyramid Scarsdale Public Schools Attendance Area 2010 Census 85+ 80-84 Females 75-79 Males 70-74 65-69

60-64 55-59 50-54 45-49 40-44

35-39 Age Age Classes 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14 5-9 Under 5 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% Percent

Table 6 Numerical and Percentage Point Change of Males and Females in the Scarsdale Public School Attendance Area 2000 to 2010

Males Females Age Group Numerical Percentage Numerical Percentage Change Point Change Change Point Change Under 5 -179 -0.9 -221 -1.1 5-9 +26 +0.3 +15 +0.2 10-14 -42 -0.1 +97 +0.7 15-19 +150 +0.9 +82 +0.5 20-24 +36 +0.2 -41 -0.2 25-29 -13 -0.1 -10 0.0 30-34 -138 -0.7 -218 -1.2 35-39 -330 -1.7 -288 -1.5 40-44 -3 +0.1 -45 -0.1 45-49 +22 +0.2 +20 +0.2 50-54 +10 +0.2 +20 +0.2 55-59 +103 +0.6 +84 +0.5 60-64 +38 +0.3 -24 -0.1 65-69 +47 +0.3 +166 +1.0 70-74 +26 +0.2 -20 -0.1 75-79 +7 +0.1 +8 +0.1 80-84 +30 +0.2 +32 +0.2 85+ +63 +0.4 +14 +0.1 Notes: Cells shaded blue reflect the greatest gains over the ten-year period. Cells shaded red reflect the greatest losses over the ten-year period.

New Housing in the Scarsdale Public Schools Attendance Area

Despite the limited residential construction, there is the potential for eight (8) detached single-family homes at 80 Garden Road in Scarsdale. However, this development has not yet been approved. In addition, there is the potential for up to 250 multi-family units on an empty parking lot (“Freightway site”) owned by the Village of Scarsdale, which also has not received approval and is very preliminary in nature. Rezoning would need to occur for the development to be constructed. The development is being marketed as a transit-oriented development (“TOD”) due to its proximity to the train station. Historically, TODs have fewer students than housing developments not located near mass transit as occupants are likely to be Millennials and Baby Boomers, which are likely to have few school-aged children.

As these developments have not been approved and the Freightway development is very preliminary in nature, their impact was not considered in this study. Developments that have been approved or are under construction would be considered, as they would likely be constructed within the five-year enrollment projection timeframe. The baseline enrollment projections were not adjusted for additional children anticipated from new housing since it is unclear whether all of the proposed residential developments will get constructed and occupied within the next five years, which is the timeframe of this study. It is recommended that the Board continue to monitor the status of all proposed developments to determine the future impact on the school district.

Distribution of Homes by Decade Built

Figure 9 shows the number of homes built by decade in the Scarsdale Public Schools attendance area from the 2012-2016 ACS. Nearly half (48.6%) of the homes were built prior to 1940, indicative of an older housing stock. The number of homes built per decade has not exceeded 500 since 1960. Of the decades shown, the largest number of homes was built in the 1950s, which corresponds to 20% of the total housing stock.

Figure 9 Number of Homes Built by Decade Scarsdale Public Schools Attendance Area 3500

3000 2847

2500

2000

1500 1176

Number ofHomes 1000

467 500 377 301 238 163 240 54 0

Decade

Home Sales

In Figure 10 following, the number of annual home sales for detached single-family homes is shown from 2000-2018 (through October 22, 2018) for the Scarsdale Public Schools attendance area. Home sales peaked at 279 in 2002 before declining and stabilizing through 2007. However, the number of home sales plummeted to 142 in 2008 due to the banking and financial crises. Beginning in 2009, the number of sales steadily increased through 2014 (253 home sales). Since then, the number of sales has been fairly stable and very similar to the five- year period (2003-2007) before the banking and financial crises.

Figure 10 Single-Family Home Sales Scarsdale Public Schools Attendance Area 2000-2018

300 279

251 253 253 242 250 233 233 237 237 234 229 226 231 212 205

202 195 200

160

150 142 Number ofSales 100

0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Year Source: MLS- HGMLS Property Type- Single Family Zone, Area 6 School District: Scarsdale

Enrollment Projections

In three separate projections, enrollments were calculated at the school level from the 2019-20 school year through the 2023-24 school year, a five-year period. The school-level totals were then aggregated to determine the projected enrollments for the entire district. Three separate projections were computed due to the variability that has occurred in the district’s birth- to-kindergarten survival ratios, which will provide the district with a range of projections for planning purposes.

With respect to enrollments for the self-contained special education/ungraded classes, they are computed by calculating the historical proportion of self-contained special education/ungraded students with respect to the regular education subtotals at each school and multiplying that value by the future regular education subtotals. However, since the district has recently mainstreamed its self-contained special education students into regular education grade levels, it was assumed that that policy would continue into the future and there would be no self- contained special education students in any of the schools.

To project kindergarten enrollments at the school level, the average historical proportion of the number of kindergarten students in each elementary school with respect to the districtwide total was used and multiplied by the districtwide projected kindergarten enrollments.

Projected K-12 enrollments using cohort-survival ratios based on historical data from the last four years (High Projection) follows in Table 7 and Figure 11. Total enrollment is projected to decline throughout the projection period. In 2023-24, enrollment is projected to be 4,519, which would be a loss of 207 students from the 2018-19 enrollment of 4,726.

Table 7 Scarsdale Public Schools Projected Enrollments (K-12) Using 4 Years of Historical Data – High Projection 2019-20 to 2023-24

1 K-12 Year K 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 SE Total 2019-20 277 270 352 349 374 392 397 367 376 382 399 382 377 0 4,694 2020-21 286 288 283 360 365 379 400 398 362 381 381 403 379 0 4,665 2021-22 277 297 302 290 376 371 386 401 392 367 380 385 400 0 4,624 2022-23 280 288 312 309 303 381 378 387 395 398 366 384 382 0 4,563 2023-24 280 291 302 319 322 308 388 379 381 401 397 370 381 0 4,519 Note: 1Ungraded special education enrollment for the entire district

Figure 11 Scarsdale Public Schools Enrollment Projections 2019-20 to 2023-24 5,000 4,694 4,683 4,678 4,665 4,638 4,631 4,624 4,586 4,573 4,563 4,511 4,519 4,494 4,456 4,437 4,500

4,000

3,500

3,000

2,500

2,000

1,500 Number ofStudents

1,000 CSR 4-Yr. CSR 5-Yr. CSR 6-YR

500

0 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 Year

Projected K-12 enrollments using cohort-survival ratios based on historical data from the last five years (Medium Projection) follows in Table 8 and Figure 11. Using this method, total enrollment is projected to decline at a faster rate and be 4,456 in 2023-24, which would be a loss of 270 students from the 2018-19 enrollment.

Table 8 Scarsdale Public Schools Projected Enrollments (K-12) Using 5 Years of Historical Data – Medium Projection 2019-20 to 2023-24

1 K-12 Year K 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 SE Total 2019-20 271 271 348 347 372 392 397 367 379 380 401 381 377 0 4,683 2020-21 279 282 280 354 360 377 400 397 364 382 381 404 378 0 4,638 2021-22 271 291 292 285 369 365 384 400 394 367 383 384 401 0 4,586 2022-23 274 282 302 297 296 375 372 384 397 397 368 386 381 0 4,511 2023-24 274 286 292 307 309 301 382 372 381 400 398 371 383 0 4,456 Note: 1Ungraded special education enrollment for the entire district

Projected K-12 enrollments using cohort-survival ratios based on historical data from the last six years (Low Projection) follows in Table 9 and Figure 11. In 2023-24, enrollment is projected to be 4,437, which would be a loss of 289 students from the 2018-19 enrollment.

Table 9 Scarsdale Public Schools Projected Enrollments (K-12) Using 6 Years of Historical Data – Low Projection 2019-20 to 2023-24

1 K-12 Year K 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 SE Total 2019-20 267 270 348 350 371 395 396 367 379 378 401 379 377 0 4,678 2020-21 277 278 281 357 360 379 402 396 364 380 379 402 376 0 4,631 2021-22 267 288 289 289 368 368 385 402 392 365 381 380 399 0 4,573 2022-23 272 278 299 297 297 376 374 385 398 393 366 382 377 0 4,494 2023-24 272 283 289 307 306 303 382 374 382 399 394 367 379 0 4,437 Note: 1Ungraded special education enrollment for the entire district

Negative kindergarten replacement is expected to continue to occur in the future as shown in Figure 12. The magnitude of the negative kindergarten replacement is projected to be fairly stable throughout the projection period, ranging from 91-127 students per year. In 2023- 24, negative kindergarten replacement is projected to be 102-107 students, which would be slightly lower than that of 2018-19 (-123).

Figure 12 Scarsdale Public Schools Projected Kindergarten Replacement

-10 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24

-30

-50

-70

-90 -91 -95 -110 -101 -98 -100 -105 -102 -102 -105

-107- 109 -107 Number of Students of Number -130 -120 -127- 127 CSR 4-YR CSR 5-YR CSR 6-YR -150 Year

Projected Enrollments by Grade Configuration

In Table 10 following, projected enrollments are shown by grade configuration (K-5, 6-8, and 9-12). At the elementary level containing grades K-5, enrollment is projected to steadily decline throughout the projection period. Enrollments are projected to range between 1,760- 1,822 students in 2023-24, which would represent a loss of 248-310 students from the 2018-19 enrollment of 2,070.

Table 10 Projected Enrollments for Grades K-5, 6-8, and 9-12 for Each Projection Method

Historical K-5 6-8 9-12 2018-19 2,070 1,126 1,530 K-5 K-5 K-5 6-8 6-8 6-8 9-12 9-12 9-12 Projected CSR CSR CSR CSR CSR CSR CSR CSR CSR 4-YR 5-YR 6-YR 4-YR 5-YR 6-YR 4-YR 5-YR 6-YR 2019-20 2,014 2,001 2,001 1,140 1,143 1,142 1,540 1,539 1,535 2020-21 1,961 1,932 1,932 1,160 1,161 1,162 1,544 1,545 1,537 2021-22 1,913 1,873 1,869 1,179 1,178 1,179 1,532 1,535 1,525 2022-23 1,873 1,826 1,819 1,160 1,153 1,157 1,530 1,532 1,518 2023-24 1,822 1,769 1,760 1,148 1,135 1,138 1,549 1,552 1,539 5-year -248 -301 -310 +22 +9 +12 +19 +22 +9 Change

Elementary School Projections

Edgewood Elementary School

Historical enrollments for Edgewood from 2009-10 to 2018-19, and projected enrollments from 2019-20 to 2023-24, are shown below in Table 11. In general, enrollment has been fairly stable in the school. However, in 2018-19, enrollment is 395, which is the lowest value in the last ten years and is a decline of 41 students from the 2009-10 enrollment of 436. In each projection, enrollments are projected to decline throughout the projection period. In 2023- 24, enrollments are projected to range between 317-338 students, which would represent a loss of 57-78 students from the 2018-19 enrollment of 395.

Table 11 Historical and Projected Enrollments of Edgewood Elementary School

K-5 Year K 1 2 3 4 5 SE Total Historical1 2009-10 58 73 76 71 69 89 0 436 2010-11 61 62 74 76 71 65 0 409 2011-12 64 70 64 73 82 70 0 423 2012-13 66 65 79 67 71 79 0 427 2013-14 69 67 66 79 64 73 0 418 2014-15 57 69 64 70 77 65 0 402 2015-16 66 59 76 62 67 79 0 409 2016-17 55 72 64 80 66 74 0 411 2017-18 67 51 70 65 84 64 0 401 2018-19 44 71 57 72 69 82 0 395 CSR 4-Yr. Ratios 0.18902 1.0260 1.0582 1.0323 1.0587 1.0168 0.00003 CSR 5-Yr. Ratios 0.18612 1.0282 1.0690 1.0164 1.0333 1.0191 0.00003 CSR 6-Yr. Ratios 0.18802 1.0226 1.0463 1.0252 1.0216 1.0184 0.00003 Projected (CSR 4-Yr.) 2019-20 52 45 75 59 76 70 0 377 2020-21 54 53 48 77 62 77 0 371 2021-22 52 55 56 50 82 63 0 358 2022-23 53 53 58 58 53 83 0 358 2023-24 53 54 56 60 61 54 0 338 Projected (CSR 5-Yr.) 2019-20 50 45 76 58 74 70 0 373 2020-21 52 51 48 77 60 75 0 363 2021-22 50 53 55 49 80 61 0 348 2022-23 51 51 57 56 51 82 0 348 2023-24 51 52 55 58 58 52 0 326 Projected (CSR 6-Yr.) 2019-20 50 45 74 58 74 70 0 371 2020-21 52 51 47 76 59 75 0 360 2021-22 50 53 53 48 78 60 0 342 2022-23 51 51 55 54 49 79 0 339 2023-24 51 52 53 56 55 50 0 317 Notes: 1Data were provided by the New York State Department of Education BEDS reports and the Scarsdale Public Schools. 2Average proportion of kindergarten students with respect to district totals 3Average proportion of self-contained special education/Ungraded students with respect to K-5 subtotals

Fox Meadow Elementary School

Historical enrollments for Fox Meadow from 2009-10 to 2018-19, and projected enrollments from 2019-20 to 2023-24, are shown below in Table 12. Like Edgewood, enrollment in Fox Meadow has been fairly stable before falling below the historical range in 2018-19. Enrollment is 456 in 2018-19, which is a loss of 50 students from the 2009-10 enrollment of 506. In each projection, which is fairly similar, enrollments are projected to decline throughout the projection period. In 2023-24, enrollments are projected to range between 386-390 students, which would represent a loss of 66-70 students from the 2018-19 enrollment of 456.

Table 12 Historical and Projected Enrollments of Fox Meadow Elementary School

K-5 Year K 1 2 3 4 5 SE Total Historical1 2009-10 71 88 86 73 93 95 0 506 2010-11 65 84 92 90 76 95 0 502 2011-12 55 76 91 90 89 78 0 479 2012-13 61 60 79 97 94 99 0 490 2013-14 88 63 65 87 97 91 0 491 2014-15 72 88 70 66 85 106 0 487 2015-16 75 74 89 72 75 95 0 480 2016-17 68 80 82 81 78 72 0 461 2017-18 70 70 87 84 84 78 0 473 2018-19 54 73 71 85 87 86 0 456 CSR 4-Yr. Ratios 0.21822 1.0463 1.0700 0.9705 1.0520 0.9946 0.00003 CSR 5-Yr. Ratios 0.21872 1.0417 1.0553 0.9850 1.0731 1.0254 0.00003 CSR 6-Yr. Ratios 0.22422 1.0333 1.0665 0.9911 1.0539 1.0388 0.00003 Projected (CSR 4-Yr.) 2019-20 60 57 78 69 89 87 0 440 2020-21 62 63 61 76 73 89 0 424 2021-22 60 65 67 59 80 73 0 404 2022-23 61 63 70 65 62 80 0 401 2023-24 61 64 67 68 68 62 0 390 Projected (CSR 5-Yr.) 2019-20 59 56 77 70 91 89 0 442 2020-21 61 61 59 76 75 93 0 425 2021-22 59 64 64 58 82 77 0 404 2022-23 60 61 68 63 62 84 0 398 2023-24 60 63 64 67 68 64 0 386 Projected (CSR 6-Yr.) 2019-20 60 56 78 70 90 90 0 444 2020-21 62 62 60 77 74 93 0 428 2021-22 60 64 66 59 81 77 0 407 2022-23 61 62 68 65 62 84 0 402 2023-24 61 63 66 67 69 64 0 390 Notes: 1Data were provided by the New York State Department of Education BEDS reports and the Scarsdale Public Schools. 2Average proportion of kindergarten students with respect to district totals 3Average proportion of self-contained special education/Ungraded students with respect to K-5 subtotals

Greenacres Elementary School

Historical enrollments for Greenacres from 2009-10 to 2018-19, and projected enrollments from 2019-20 to 2023-24, are shown below in Table 13. In general, enrollment was fairly stable from 2009-10 to 2016-17, ranging from 371-414 students per year. However, enrollment has declined in each of the last two years. In 2018-19, enrollment is 351, which is a loss of 63 students from the 2009-10 enrollment of 414. In each projection, which is fairly similar, enrollments are projected to slowly decline throughout the projection period. In 2023- 24, enrollments are projected to range between 293-302 students, which would represent a loss of 49-58 students from the 2018-19 enrollment of 351.

Table 13 Historical and Projected Enrollments of Greenacres Elementary School

K-5 Year K 1 2 3 4 5 SE Total Historical1 2009-10 63 63 57 82 81 68 0 414 2010-11 47 77 62 60 80 85 0 411 2011-12 74 48 75 61 59 78 0 395 2012-13 54 74 44 76 63 60 0 371 2013-14 61 55 82 48 73 64 0 383 2014-15 60 68 64 91 48 77 0 408 2015-16 59 67 68 60 85 49 0 388 2016-17 50 59 67 71 64 90 0 401 2017-18 49 54 60 68 73 65 0 369 2018-19 43 51 55 63 67 72 0 351 CSR 4-Yr. Ratios 0.16472 1.0403 1.0118 1.0363 1.0267 1.0202 0.00003 CSR 5-Yr. Ratios 0.16862 1.0594 1.0089 1.0116 1.0035 1.0204 0.00003 CSR 6-Yr. Ratios 0.16962 1.0704 1.0398 1.0313 1.0028 1.0273 0.00003 Projected (CSR 4-Yr.) 2019-20 46 45 52 57 65 68 0 333 2020-21 47 48 46 54 59 66 0 320 2021-22 46 49 49 48 55 60 0 307 2022-23 46 48 50 51 49 56 0 300 2023-24 46 48 49 52 52 50 0 297 Projected (CSR 5-Yr.) 2019-20 46 46 51 56 63 68 0 330 2020-21 47 49 46 52 56 64 0 314 2021-22 46 50 49 47 52 57 0 301 2022-23 46 49 50 50 47 53 0 295 2023-24 46 49 49 51 50 48 0 293 Projected (CSR 6-Yr.) 2019-20 45 46 53 57 63 69 0 333 2020-21 47 48 48 55 57 65 0 320 2021-22 45 50 50 50 55 59 0 309 2022-23 46 48 52 52 50 57 0 305 2023-24 46 49 50 54 52 51 0 302 Notes: 1Data were provided by the New York State Department of Education BEDS reports and the Scarsdale Public Schools. 2Average proportion of kindergarten students with respect to district totals 3Average proportion of self-contained special education/Ungraded students with respect to K-5 subtotals

Heathcote Elementary School

Historical enrollments for Heathcote from 2009-10 to 2018-19, and projected enrollments from 2019-20 to 2023-24, are shown below in Table 14. Enrollment has been fairly stable in the last ten years, ranging from 376-396 students per year. In 2018-19, enrollment is 382, which is nearly identical to the 2009-10 enrollment of 380. In each projection, enrollments are projected to decline throughout the projection period. In 2023-24, enrollments are projected to range between 297-309 students, which would represent a loss of 73-85 students from the 2018-19 enrollment of 382.

Table 14 Historical and Projected Enrollments of Heathcote Elementary School

K-5 Year K 1 2 3 4 5 SE Total Historical1 2009-10 61 62 52 80 60 65 0 380 2010-11 63 65 66 55 81 66 0 396 2011-12 56 64 65 62 56 80 0 383 2012-13 61 60 67 65 67 56 0 376 2013-14 70 58 60 68 65 69 0 390 2014-15 56 75 59 66 71 64 0 391 2015-16 55 60 74 58 65 68 0 380 2016-17 64 53 63 78 59 66 0 383 2017-18 61 70 57 65 78 60 0 391 2018-19 38 59 75 59 71 80 0 382 CSR 4-Yr. Ratios 0.17702 1.0082 1.0656 1.0403 1.0365 1.0193 0.00003 CSR 5-Yr. Ratios 0.17602 1.0240 1.0459 1.0260 1.0236 1.0039 0.00003 CSR 6-Yr. Ratios 0.18002 1.0335 1.0402 1.0408 1.0277 1.0001 0.00003 Projected (CSR 4-Yr.) 2019-20 49 38 63 78 61 72 0 361 2020-21 51 49 40 66 81 62 0 349 2021-22 49 51 52 42 68 83 0 345 2022-23 50 49 54 54 44 69 0 320 2023-24 50 50 52 56 56 45 0 309 Projected (CSR 5-Yr.) 2019-20 48 39 62 77 60 71 0 357 2020-21 49 49 41 64 79 60 0 342 2021-22 48 50 51 42 66 79 0 336 2022-23 48 49 52 52 43 66 0 310 2023-24 48 49 51 53 53 43 0 297 Projected (CSR 6-Yr.) 2019-20 48 39 61 78 61 71 0 358 2020-21 50 50 41 63 80 61 0 345 2021-22 48 52 52 43 65 80 0 340 2022-23 49 50 54 54 44 65 0 316 2023-24 49 51 52 56 55 44 0 307 Notes: 1Data were provided by the New York State Department of Education BEDS reports and the Scarsdale Public Schools. 2Average proportion of kindergarten students with respect to district totals 3Average proportion of self-contained special education/Ungraded students with respect to K-5 subtotals

Quaker Ridge Elementary School

Historical enrollments for Quaker Ridge from 2009-10 to 2018-19, and projected enrollments from 2019-20 to 2023-24, are shown below in Table 15. In general, enrollment was fairly stable from 2009-10 to 2015-16, ranging from 438-457 students per year. However, enrollment has increased in each of the last three years. In 2018-19, enrollment is 486, which is a gain of 42 students from the 2009-10 enrollment of 444. In two of the three projections (CSR 5-year and CSR 6-year), enrollments are projected to decline throughout the projection period. In these projections, enrollments are projected to be 467 and 444 respectively in 2023-24, which would represent a loss of 19 and 42 students from the 2018-19 enrollment of 486. In the remaining projection (CSR 4-year), enrollments are projected to be fairly stable, ranging from 488-503 students per year, which would be slightly higher than the 2018-19 enrollment.

Table 15 Historical and Projected Enrollments of Quaker Ridge Elementary School

K-5 Year K 1 2 3 4 5 SE Total Historical1 2009-10 68 75 78 75 77 71 0 444 2010-11 71 69 78 85 72 77 0 452 2011-12 61 75 67 81 81 73 0 438 2012-13 71 65 76 72 85 82 0 451 2013-14 62 77 66 83 77 84 0 449 2014-15 81 62 76 73 82 83 0 457 2015-16 64 83 59 79 77 81 0 443 2016-17 81 72 88 64 78 80 0 463 2017-18 78 84 76 86 68 79 0 471 2018-19 80 81 83 80 93 69 0 486 CSR 4-Yr. Ratios 0.25112 1.0668 1.0346 1.0382 1.0437 1.0222 0.00003 CSR 5-Yr. Ratios 0.25052 1.0563 1.0139 1.0385 1.0465 1.0136 0.00003 CSR 6-Yr. Ratios 0.23832 1.0450 1.0085 1.0520 1.0348 1.0264 0.00003 Projected (CSR 4-Yr.) 2019-20 70 85 84 86 83 95 0 503 2020-21 72 75 88 87 90 85 0 497 2021-22 70 77 78 91 91 92 0 499 2022-23 70 75 80 81 95 93 0 494 2023-24 70 75 78 83 85 97 0 488 Projected (CSR 5-Yr.) 2019-20 68 85 82 86 84 94 0 499 2020-21 70 72 86 85 90 85 0 488 2021-22 68 74 73 89 89 91 0 484 2022-23 69 72 75 76 93 90 0 475 2023-24 69 73 73 78 80 94 0 467 Projected (CSR 6-Yr.) 2019-20 64 84 82 87 83 95 0 495 2020-21 66 67 85 86 90 85 0 479 2021-22 64 69 68 89 89 92 0 471 2022-23 65 67 70 72 92 91 0 457 2023-24 65 68 68 74 75 94 0 444 Notes: 1Data were provided by the New York State Department of Education BEDS reports and the Scarsdale Public Schools. 2Average proportion of kindergarten students with respect to district totals 3Average proportion of self-contained special education/Ungraded students with respect to K-5 subtotals