Demographic Study for the Scarsdale Public Schools December 2018 Prepared By: Richard S. Grip, Ed.D. 2 Table of Contents Page Executive Summary ................................................................................................ 3 Introduction ......................................................................................................... 7 Demographic Characteristics of the Geographical Area Served by the Scarsdale Public Schools ........................................................................... 7 District Overview ........................................................................................... 10 Explanation of the Cohort-Survival Ratio Method .................................................. 10 Historical Enrollment Trends ................................................................................... 12 Non-Public School Enrollments ............................................................................. 16 Kindergarten Replacement ...................................................................................... 20 Birth Data ......................................................................................................... 22 New Housing in the Scarsdale Public Schools Attendance Area ............................ 26 Distribution of Homes by Decade Built .................................................... 27 Home Sales ........................................................................................... 28 Enrollment Projections ........................................................................................... 29 Projected Enrollments by Grade Configuration ...................................................... 32 Elementary School Projections .............................................................................. 33 Edgewood Elementary School ...................................................................... 33 Fox Meadow Elementary School .................................................................. 34 Greenacres Elementary School ...................................................................... 35 Heathcote Elementary School ...................................................................... 36 Quaker Ridge Elementary School ................................................................. 37 3 Executive Summary Statistical Forecasting completed a demographic study for the Scarsdale Public Schools. The purpose of the study is to project grade-by-grade enrollments from 2019-20 through 2023- 24, a five-year projection period. Information was also collected related to community birth rates, historical enrollments, and new housing starts. Overview of Scarsdale Public Schools Attendance Area The Scarsdale Public Schools attendance area is comprised of the Town and Village of Scarsdale (“Scarsdale”) and the Town of Mamaroneck (“Mamaroneck”). A very small section of Mamaroneck attends the Scarsdale Public Schools (on the northwest boundary with Scarsdale) while all of Scarsdale attends the school district. In the 2012-2016 American Community Survey (“ACS”) published by the United States Census Bureau, there were 18,342 residents in the Scarsdale Public Schools attendance area, which is nearly unchanged from 2000 (18,425). Regarding race, Whites were the largest race and comprised 81.4% of the attendance area in the 2012-2016 ACS while Asians were the second-largest race at 14.0%. With respect to nativity, 22.9% of residents were foreign-born in the 2012-2016 ACS as compared to 18.0% in 2000, a gain of 4.9 percentage points. China and India were the largest sources, accounting for 18.7% and 8.6% respectively of the foreign-born population. Historical Enrollment Trends Historical enrollments (K-12) were analyzed from 2009-10 through 2018-19, a ten-year period. In general, enrollment has been fairly stable over the last ten years, varying from 4,718- 4,821, which is a range of 103 students. In 2018-19, enrollment is 4,726, which is nearly identical to the 2009-10 enrollment of 4,718. For grades K-5, enrollment declined through 2012-13 before stabilizing. However, in 2018-19, enrollment declined to 2,070, which is a loss of 110 students from the 2009-10 enrollment of 2,180. For grades 6-8 at Scarsdale Middle School, enrollments were fairly stable from 2009-10 to 2018-19, varying from 1,105-1,179 students per year, which is a range of 74 students. Enrollment is 1,126 in 2018-19, which is slightly higher than the 2009-10 enrollment of 1,105. Finally, at Scarsdale High School, which contains grades 9-12, enrollments increased, in general, from 2009-10 through 2014-15 before stabilizing. In 2018-19, enrollment is 1,530, which is a gain of 97 students from the 2009-10 enrollment of 1,433. 4 Non-Public School Enrollments The number of Scarsdale Public Schools resident students (K-12) attending non-public schools declined from 448 in 2013-14 to 380 in 2017-18. Approximately 7.4% of the total Scarsdale resident student population attended non-public schools in 2017-18. More than one- third (35.5%) of the non-public school population attended one of five schools in 2017-18: Salanter Akiba Riverdale Academy, The Masters School, The Windward School, Westchester Day School, and Solomon Schechter School - Westchester. Kindergarten Replacements Kindergarten replacements were analyzed to determine whether there was any relationship between overall enrollment change and kindergarten replacement, which is the numerical difference between the number of graduating 12th graders and the number of entering kindergarten students. The district has experienced negative kindergarten replacement in eight of the last nine years, ranging from 25-123 students per year. Negative kindergarten replacement occurs when the number of graduating 12th grade students is larger than the number of kindergarten students replacing them in the next year. In the last four years, the district has lost an average of 78 students per year due to kindergarten replacement. In each of the last nine years, the district’s losses due to negative kindergarten replacement were partially offset (or totally, resulting in an enrollment increase) by a net inward migration of students in the other grades (K to 1, 1 to 2, 2 to 3, etc.). Birth Counts The number of births was used to project kindergarten enrollments. In general, the number of births has been declining in the Scarsdale Public Schools attendance area. Births declined from a high of 172 in 2004 to 88 in 2013, which is nearly a 50% loss. In the last three years, the number of births has been fairly stable, ranging from 96-99 births per year, but is still far below the 2004 birth total. Prior to 2018-19, the decline in the number of births did not significantly affect the kindergarten total five years later, which had been fairly stable, ranging from 307-350 students per year. Regarding fertility rates, the fertility rate in the Scarsdale Public Schools attendance area is lower than those of both Westchester County and the State of New York. The 2000 and 2010 age-sex diagrams for the Scarsdale Public Schools attendance area were created to show the percentage of males and females in each age class. The largest number of individuals in 2000 was aged 10-14 for males and 40-44 for females. In 2010, the largest cohort was aged 10-14 for both males and females, which corresponds approximately with children in grades 5-9. From 2000 to 2010, the greatest declines, both in number and percentage points, occurred in the 35-39 age group for males and females. There was also a significant decline in the 30-34 age group for females, which corresponds to the ages (30-39) when many females have their children. The low fertility rate and the declining number of females in the 30- 34 and 35-39 age groups have likely led to the declining birth rate in the Scarsdale Public Schools attendance area. The greatest gains, both in number and percentage points, occurred in 5 the 15-19 age group for males, which corresponds approximately with high school and college- aged individuals, and the 65-69 age group for females. Potential New Housing Municipal representatives from Scarsdale and Mamaroneck were contacted regarding potential new housing in the Scarsdale Public Schools attendance area. There are no residential developments under construction, nor are there development applications that have been approved by the planning board in Scarsdale or in the section of Mamaroneck that sends to the Scarsdale Public Schools. Most residential construction in Scarsdale and Mamaroneck has been limited to building new homes after the demolition of an existing older home (“knockdowns”), which is a net change of zero housing units. Despite the limited residential construction, there is the potential for up to 250 multi- family units on an empty parking lot (“Freightway site”) owned by the Village of Scarsdale, which has not received approval and is very preliminary in nature. The baseline enrollment projections were not adjusted since it is unclear whether the Freightway site will be developed and whether occupation would occur within the next five years, which is the timeframe of this study. Home Sales Home sales in the Scarsdale Public Schools attendance area were reviewed from 2000- 2018. Home sales peaked at 279 in 2002 before declining and stabilizing through 2007. However, the number of home sales plummeted to 142 in 2008 due to the banking and financial crises. Beginning in 2009, the number of sales steadily increased through 2014 (253 home sales). Since