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An Investment Strategy Framework for Rental Real Estate

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An Investment Strategy Framework for Rental Real Estate An Investment Strategy Framework for Rental Real Estate An Analysis of Potential Yields and Strategic Options in Western Sweden Master of Science Thesis in the Master Degree Programme, Management and Economcis of Innovation FREDRIK HÄRENSTAM JOHAN THUNGREN LUNDH JAKOB UNFORS Department of Technology Management and Economics Division of Innovation Engineering and Management CHALMERS UNIVERSITY OF TECHNOLOGY Göteborg, Sweden, 2012 Report No. E 2012:086 MASTER’S THESIS E 2012:086 An Investment Strategy Framework for Rental Real Estate An Analysis of Potential Yields and Strategic Options in Western Sweden FREDRIK HÄRENSTAM JOHAN THUNGREN LUNDH JAKOB UNFORS Tutor, Chalmers: Jonas Hjerpe Tutor, company: Fredrik Svensson Department of Technology Management and Economics Division of Innovation Engineering and Management CHALMERS UNIVERSITY OF TECHNOLOGY Göteborg, Sweden 2012 An Investment Strategy Framework for Rental Real Estate An Analysis of Potential Yields and Strategic Options in Western Sweden Fredrik Härenstam, Johan Thungren Lundh, and Jakob Unfors © Fredrik Härenstam, Johan Thungren Lundh, Jakob Unfors, 2012 Master’s Thesis E 2012:086 Department of Technology Management and Economics Division of Innovation Engineering and Management Chalmers University of Technology SE-412 96 Göteborg, Sweden Telephone: + 46 (0)31-772 1000 Chalmers Reproservice Göteborg, Sweden 2012 Preface We would like to thank both Fredrik Svensson and Jonas Hjerpe in providing insightful guidance throughout the course of this project. Their support helped structure and push the work forward. They were also instrumental in gathering expert opinion to create a forum of real estate investment insight in which our work could be vented and tested along the way. We would also like to thank all respondents for their participation. Without these contributions, this thesis would never have become reality. Abstract Investments in real estate have historically offered high and stable returns, but little information is available concerning the Swedish market, its rental property stock, especially in areas beyond major urban regions. This report aims to develop an investment strategy framework focused on long-term profitability from rental real estate in Western Sweden. The type of investor considered is one beginning on a relatively small-scale but with a long-term time perspective, with an initial investment sum around 30 MSEK. The geographical scope, denoted as Western Sweden, roughly translates into the area within a two hour journey from Gothenburg. The work and report was carried out and structured in five sub- studies, which were then combined and tested in a sixth, case- oriented sub-study. The five preceding sub-studies covered overall investment strategies in rental real estate, systems for rental accommodation, an overview of properties’ technical features and their impact on an investment, tenants’ preferences and tenant satisfaction impact on investment, and an analysis of relative attractiveness of the different municipalities in Western Sweden. Findings indicate that on average over the last decade, rental real estate investments have generated long-term, unleveraged, total yield of 9.9% and 4.8% income yield. Yields have declined in the past years, however, and income yield last year (2011) was only 2.8%. Rent levels are presently determined through comparison with apartments with similar utility values. However, there are shifts towards more market oriented structures as well as indications of increased capacity for tenants to absorb rent increases. Much of the existing housing stock in Sweden is in need of large renovations. Such properties can represent an opportunity for investors in terms of potentially discounted prices, especially in areas with current low demand and owners lacking the competence or financial strength to carry through these renovations. Satisfied tenants could both contribute to long-term reductions of costs and enabling rent increases. Improving apartment standards and tenants’ perception of safety/security presents the greatest potential for increasing tenants’ satisfaction. There seems to be a discrepancy between the attractiveness of living in a region, its economic strength and the price level for rental housing there, due to prices being somewhat sticky and not fully reflecting strong positive developments. This presents an opportunity where an investor can potentially be able to find properties at a regionally discounted rate, enabling both high income yield and total yield through capital value appreciation. When applying these findings on case examples, one finds that apart from initial price and rent increases, investments reducing energy consumption have the largest effect on yield on initial investment. An investor can apply the findings via different strategic approaches. Properties can be identified through a top-down or a bottom-up approach, and ownership style can be either active or passive. Each combination makes use of the findings to evaluate and assess potential investment targets. Keywords: Investments in rental real estate, Strategy framework, Western Sweden, Real estate yields, Development of rent levels, Renovation need in existing real estate, Tenant satisfaction, Municipality analysis Glossary Condominium: A housing structure in which tenants have individual ownership rights over their respective apartments and share rights to common facilities. “Bostadsrätt” in Swedish. NOI: Net Operational Income, i.e. gross income (rent) less costs for operations, maintenance and property tax (see a chapter 4.1 Investments in Rental Properties for a further description of the term). “Driftnetto” in Swedish. Property/Real estate: Terms used to indicate the investment object, encompassing the plot and its associated buildings. “Fastighet” in Swedish. Senior home: A form of accommodation in Sweden that is intended for individuals of age 70 and above whom are in need for of some degree of care. It is granted with certain subsidies if a set of criteria is fulfilled, e.g. personnel that can contribute to some assistance and availability of common areas for dining and recreation. “Trygghetsboende” in Swedish. Utility value: An evaluation of an apartment’s value based on its features, used in determining reasonable rent levels for apartments in Sweden (see chapter 5.2 Systems for Rental Accommodations for a description of the term and its usage).“Bruksvärde” in Swedish. Value year: A fictitious year that is used for e.g. calculating taxation value. The value year is updated to refurbishing year if the property has been rebuilt/remodeled to a cost of at least 70% of the estimated cost for construction of a similar property. Rebuilding/remodeling costs between 20% and 70% increases value year proportionally, based on the estimated costs for new construction. If the cost is less than 20%, the value year is kept unchanged. “Värdeår” in Swedish. Table of Contents Preface .................................................................................................................................................... 5 Abstract ................................................................................................................................................... 6 Glossary ................................................................................................................................................... 7 Table of Contents...................................................................................................................................... I Table of Figures ...................................................................................................................................... IV 1. Introduction ..................................................................................................................................... 1 1.1 Background .............................................................................................................................. 1 1.2 Research Aim and Approach ..................................................................................................... 1 1.3 Key Results ............................................................................................................................... 2 1.4 Report Disposition .................................................................................................................... 3 2. Literature Review ............................................................................................................................. 5 2.1 Overview of Investment Strategies ........................................................................................... 5 2.2 Overview of the Sub-studies ..................................................................................................... 6 2.2.1 Investments in Rental Properties ...................................................................................... 6 2.2.2 Systems for Rental Accommodation .................................................................................. 6 2.2.3 Technical Features ............................................................................................................ 7 2.2.4 Tenants’ Preferences and Satisfactions ............................................................................. 8 2.2.5 Identifying Attractive Municipalities .................................................................................. 8 3. Method ...........................................................................................................................................
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