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UK Construction Forecast SAMPLE UK Construction Forecast SAMPLE UK Construction Forecast Summer 2018 Volume 24: Issue 3 A report by the Forecasting Committee for the Construction Industries This report has been prepared for publication by the Construction Futures team, which is part of Experian’s Economics Unit, with guidance from its Forecasting Committee for the Construction Industries. The members of the committee serve in a personal not a representative capacity. The contribution of the members, and that of the Forecasting Groups (listed in Appendix D), is gratefully acknowledged. Whilst every endeavour has been made to obtain the best available data from appropriate sources, Experian’s Market Insight Division can give no guarantee of accuracy, nor for the applicability of the forecasts for particular decisions. No responsibility is taken for any consequential loss or other effects from these data. Copyright © Experian 2018 ISSN 0308-079X Apart from fair dealing for the purposes of research or private study, or criticism or review, and only as permitted under the Copyright Designs and Patents Act 1998, this publication may only be reproduced, stored or transmitted, in any form or by any means, with the prior permission in writing of the Publishers or in the case of reprographic reproduction in accordance with the terms of the licences issued by the Copyright Licensing Agency in the UK. US copyright law is applicable in the US. Printed by PAPCOM © Experian UK Construction Forecast Summer 2018 Volume 24: Issue 3 CONTENTS Page Executive Summary 1 1. Macroeconomic outlook 9 2. Housing 16 3. Housing repair, maintenance and improvement 23 4. New infrastructure 28 5. Public non-residential construction 48 6. Private industrial construction 56 7. Private commercial construction 61 8. Non-residential repair and maintenance 71 Appendix A: Health and education output Appendix B: Construction output in current prices Appendix C: Definitions: types and examples of construction work Appendix D: Membership of the forecasting committees © Experian UK Construction Forecast Summer 2018 Volume 24: Issue 3 Executive Summary Key messages Mega projects such as HS2 Weak consumer spending and investment growth and Hinkley Point drive growth in infrastructure will impact overall economic expansion over the output from 2019 three years to 2020, with GDP expected to rise Government targets for net by a modest 1.4% a year on average, shaved new homes the impetus for down from 1.5% in the spring. This is well below the housing sectors the 1990-2016 average of 2 per cent. Army Basing Plan boosts A very weak first quarter of this year, in which defence-related works to construction output contracted by 2.7%, means 2019 that the outturn for this year as a whole is now likely to be negative, even if some of the decline Forecast highlights was due to bad weather and activity picks up subsequently. However, 2019 and 2020 are now projected to be slightly better years than anticipated in the spring, bringing annual average growth over the forecast period up to 1%, only marginally down on the spring prediction (1.1%). Industrial construction stable, but no significant The prognosis for construction is very much a growth ‘tale of three sectors’, with moderate growth Possible ‘Brexit bonus’ for expected in the housing sector, the star the logistics sub-sector with performer the infrastructure one, but the non- the UK having to hold a residential building sectors struggling. In larger stock of imported goods post 2019 particular, commercial construction is expected to experience a couple of years of retrenchment as the slowdown in projects reaching construction stage in the aftermath of the EU Referendum Forecast highlights vote has finally impacted on new orders and output figures. CONSTRUCTION OUTPUT BY SECTOR, 2017 Public Housing 3% With government’s eyes Total R&M focussed on housing, 36% capital expenditure on Private Housing 20% health and education suffers A sharp retrenchment in office construction on the cards Infrastructure 12% No joy for retail construction Public Non- residential Private 7% Commercial Private Industrial Source: ONS 19% 3% Forecast highlights © Experian 1 UK Construction Forecast Summer 2018 Volume 24: Issue 3 The outturn for 2017 The new work sector was slightly stronger than repair & maintenance, with the former posting growth of 6% The final estimate of GDP growth in 2017 from the compared with 5.2% for the latter in 2017. Office for National Statistics (ONS) showed a 1.8% rise on the previous year, a somewhat better It was another good year for the private housing performance than had been expected six months ago sector, albeit the growth rate moderated somewhat to and only marginally down on the 2016 outturn of under 10% for the first time since 2013, and public 1.9%. housing output rose for the first time in three years. The government’s focus on its aspirational target of However, the UK has shifted from being one of the 300,000 net new homes a year in England by the mid- fastest growing G7 economies to the slowest. The 2020s, combined with similar programmes in the economic recovery has lost momentum in large part devolved nations, is undoubtedly helping to boost both due to a weaker performance by consumer spending, the public and private housing sectors. in which growth dropped from 2.9% in 2016 to 1.7% last year. Household incomes and sentiment have Infrastructure output reached a new high in 2017 of suffered from the combination of higher inflation, not far off £19bn (2015 prices) with growth in the which averaged 2.7% in 2017, and sluggish wage sector driven by energy and water & sewerage growth, which only managed 2.3% over the year. projects for a change, with transport work stalling Consequently, real household disposable incomes somewhat. largely flat-lined in 2017. For the non-residential building sectors performance The pressure on consumer spending growth can be in was mixed. Publicly funded health and education work large part traced back to the decline in the value of slipped and the decline was only partially mitigated by sterling in the immediate aftermath of the EU an increase in defence-related works as part of the Referendum vote in June 2016. This led to an Army Basing Plan. In the industrial construction increase in the level of imported inflation against a sector, both factory and warehouse output rose background of relatively poor wage growth. While this slightly in current price terms, but taking account of effect is now unwinding, it may be some time before inflation in real terms the overall level was down. consumer spending growth returns to more buoyant Output growth for the manufacturing sector came in at levels. around 2.5% last year, the best outturn since 2014, reflecting the strong export growth, but the transport & Despite ongoing Brexit uncertainty, total investment storage sector only managed 1.5%, thus general growth bounced back to 4% in 2017, from below 2% demand for distribution & logistics space was likely to in the previous year and it was this, combined with a have been muted. rise in exports of 5.7%, that helped sustain GDP growth at 1.8% despite the slowdown in consumer The commercial construction sector was the only non- spending expansion. This represented the best export residential building one to show growth in 2017, at performance in growth terms since 2011. 5.5%, driven largely by another very strong year for the leisure sub-sector. However, quarterly output, Construction output reached a new high of just under having peaked in the second quarter of 2017 fell over £157.2bn in 2015 prices, according to the ONS, a the rest of the year, indicating that tougher times for 5.7% increase on the previous year. This took its level the sector are in the offing. to 11% higher than the previous peak in 2007. However, this robust growth at an annual level R&M growth was primarily driven by an 11% increase disguises a much weaker performance on a quarterly in the private housing sector, which took output in that basis, with most of the increase being a function of a classification to a new high. Given that disposable high start off point at the end of 2016 and a good first incomes were under pressure for most of 2017, this quarter of last year. The quarter-on-quarter growth outturn was something of a surprise and may indicate rate for the remaining three quarters of the year was that the slower ‘churn’ in the housing market is flat on average. © Experian 2 UK Construction Forecast Summer 2018 Volume 24: Issue 3 leading homeowners to spend more on their current Looking ahead, GDP growth over the next three years properties. is projected to average a fairly modest 1.4% as consumer spending continues to be constrained, The outlook to 2020 expansion in investment drops back from its 4% rate last year and export growth returns to more ‘normal’ In both economic and construction terms 2018 has levels in a recent context. started with a whimper rather than a bang. The ONS’s second release showed that UK GDP grew by 0.1% Consumer price inflation (CPI) is expected to continue quarter-on-quarter in the first quarter of this year, to moderate from its 2017 level down to the Bank of unrevised from the preliminary estimate. This is the England 2% target by the second quarter of next year smallest quarterly percentage increase in GDP in over with average earnings growth accelerating mildly to 5 years and represents a 0.1% contraction on a per- around 3% by the middle of 2019. This should lead to head basis. a recovery in real disposable income growth, although rises are projected not to exceed 1.2% a year at best The slowdown in GDP growth continues to be driven to 2020.
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