REPUBLIC OF THE PHILIPPINES Department of Science and Technology Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) Science Garden, Agham Road, Diliman, Quezon City 1100
EL NIÑO ADVISORY No. 5
The current El Niño episode continues to persist across the equatorial Pacific Ocean and reached a moderate strength. Leading climate models suggest tropical ocean temperatures are approaching their peak and will remain above El Niño thresholds through March 2010. It will likely influence the country’s climate through the first half of the year.
Weather systems that prevailed during the month of December 2009 were the Northeast (NE) monsoon, the tail-end of a cold front, ridge of High Pressure Area (HPA) and the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). The occurrence of one tropical cyclone, Tropical Depression (TD) “Vinta” (December 02-03), which just passed through the northeastern border of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR), did not affect the country.
Rainfall condition for the month of December was unusually way below normal in most areas of Luzon. Likewise, Western Visayas experienced way below normal rainfall, while the central and eastern portions experienced below to near normal conditions. Greater portions of Mindanao experienced below normal rainfall condition and only the eastern and western portions showed near normal rainfall values. These are clear manifestations of the impacts of El Niño in the country.
The province of Capiz is already under drought condition as it experienced five (5) consecutive months from August-December with below normal rainfall. Areas that experienced dry spell condition have increased and these are Benguet, Bulacan, Nueva Ecija, Pampanga, Batangas, Aurora, Quezon, Marinduque, Mindoro, Romblon, Sorsogon, Camarines Norte, Camarines Sur, Northern Samar, Aklan, Guimaras, Biliran, Davao del Sur, South Cotabato, Sarangani and Sultan Kudarat. These areas exhibited three to four consecutive months of below normal rainfall condition.
Average air temperatures for the month were near normal in most parts of Luzon while most areas of Visayas and Mindanao experienced above normal surface air temperature.
Weather systems that will likely influence the climate for January 2010 are the NE monsoon, the tail-end of the cold front, ridge of HPA, easterly wave, and a slim chance of occurrence of one (1) tropical cyclone. Most parts of Luzon and Visayas will likely experience below normal rainfall condition. Likewise, greater portions of western, central and eastern Mindanao are expected to have drier condition except the southern part which is likely to experience near normal rainfall. With the ongoing El Niño episode, Northern Samar is near drought condition, likely to experience below normal rainfall condition for 5 consecutive months.
Near normal to slightly warmer surface air temperatures are expected in Luzon while warmer than normal temperatures are likely over most areas of Visayas and Mindanao.
PAGASA will continue to closely monitor these conditions and regular updates/advisories shall be issued as appropriate. Concerned agencies are advised to take precautionary measures to mitigate the potential adverse impacts of this El Niño episode.
For further information, please contact the Climatology and Agrometeorology Division (CAD) at telephone nos. 929-1953 or 434-0955.
PRISCO D. NILO Administrator
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