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Fortum's Heat Business Capital Markets Day 2012 Fortum’s Heat business Per Langer, EVP Heat & Alexander Chuvaev, EVP Russia Disclaimer This presentation does not constitute an invitation to underwrite, subscribe for, or otherwise acquire or dispose of any Fortum shares. Past performance is no guide to future performance, and persons needing advice should consult an independent financial adviser. Agenda • Towards Solar Economy – Efficient and competitive CHP – Fortum’s CHP strategy – Heat and CHP markets in Europe – Fortum’s Heat Divisions targets • Heat in Russia • Key takeaways Transition towards Solar Economy Solar Economy High Solar based production with high overall system efficiency Sun Hydro Ocean CHP Wind Geothermal Advanced energy production Bio Energy efficient and/or low-emission production Nuclear Traditional tomorrow energy production Resource & system efficiency Resource Exhaustible fuels that burden the environment CCS Gas Coal Oil Nuclear Low today Finite fuel resources Large CO2 emissions Infinite fuel resources Emissions free production Copyright © Fortum Corporation 4 All rights reserved by Fortum Corporation and shall be deemed the sole property of Fortum Corporation and nothing in this slide or otherwise shall be construed as granting or conferring any rights, in particular any intellectual property rights Implications of EU climate targets to efficient DHC and CHP Energy Roadmap 2050 – recitals 20-20-20 until 2020 •Heating & cooling has the largest share (42 %) on final energy demand (electricity 25 % and transport 33 %) Reduce Increase Increase green house usage of energy gas renewable efficiency •Renewable and efficient district heating and emissions energy to and energy cooling (DHC) and combined heat and power with savings with (CHP) are vital contributors for Europe’s targets for combating climate change and resource 20% 20% 20% efficiency •Need to shift energy consumption towards low carbon, and efficiently produced electricity and renewable energy •Energy policy must focus equally on electricity, transport and heating & cooling 5 Promotion of high-efficient CHP will call for further deployment of regulatory incentives energy efficiency through promoting efficient district heating Energy Efficiency Directive (EE-D 2012) ) and cooling, and high-efficient CHP replacing existing CHP Directive 2004 setting EU wide pre-conditions for national support Revision of State Aid Rules (ongoing) mechanisms Industrial Emissions Directive (IE-D 2011) boosting refurbishments of outdated CHP assets Emission Trading Scheme Directive (ETS-D 2009) preferred market-based climate instrument promoting renewable electricity and high-efficient co- Renewable Energy Directive (RES-D 2009) generation Energy Taxation Directive (ET-D 2003) increasing tax burden on fossil fuels promoting increased energy efficiency through stricter Energy Performance of Buildings Directive (EPB-D 2002) building regulations 6 Frequent advantages of high-efficient and renewable CHP One plant – multiple products Efficient use of resources Fuel flexibility Economically viable Renewable fuels in small scale: competitive to fossil Electricity fuels Large global potential 7 CHP are small scale electricity production in comparison with traditional thermal condensing plants for electricity production The disadvantage of small scale investments is set off by high fuel efficiency (heat production) and ability to effectively use local renewable fuels 8 High-efficient CHP - primary energy savings up to 30 % Efficient Economic Reliable Environmental 9 District heating and CHP in Europe – EU energy policy encouraging further deployment DH market share ~15% in European heating markets CHP market share ~11% in European electricity markets Sources: Euroheat & Power, KPMG benchmarking, Fortum analysis. 10 Heat market in Europe – key industrial-scale CHP producers DH/CHP share Heat sales Number of Presence of revenues TWh CHP plants * Focus on DH Finland Poland Sweden Russia > 25% 50,5 30 DH Baltics France Romania UK Estonia > 50% >50 14 DH Czech Rep. (est.) Lithuania Poland Poland Italy < 10% 10 DH Hungary Germany Netherlands < 50% 29, 4 54 DH Sweden Denmark France Italy Germany Hungary < 10% 33 DH/industry Belgium UK Netherlands Germany Finland UK < 10% 7,7 40 DH/industry Poland Sweden Germany UK < 10% 22 DH/industry Czech Rep. Czech Poland < 50% 4,0 (FC2012) 17 DH Republic Spain Russia < 50% >10,6 >22 DH/industry Portugal Denmark UK > 50% 11,8 24 DH/industry Norway Russia Lithuania > 50% 16,6 38 DH/industry * The list is based on the plant list collected by GIA; the data has been partly updated by Fortum 11 Heat regulation regimes vary across Europe – transition towards competitive heat markets and pricing Regime categories DH company sets competitive prices • Sweden, Finland, Denmark, while authorities monitor pricing based on Germany, Austria, Belgium, France competition law and UK Alternative-based heat pricing as main • Norway and Netherlands pricing principle to promote DH against other heating solutions Heavy-touch ex-ante price control based • Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, on established methodology and approval Poland, Czech Republic, Slovakia, Hungary, Bulgaria and of autonomous regulator Macedonia Heavy-touch ex-ante price control based • Russia, Romania, Belorussia and on multi-level approval by state, regional Ukraine and local authorities Source: Fortum analysis based on benchmarking selected DH/CHP markets in Europe. KPMG survey 2012, 12 Competitive CHP - hedging and system optimization is critical Industrial heat Electricity and Local heating Alternative space customers CO2 markets customers heating solutions Fundament prices DH networks Industry’s Competing National On-site legislation own energy alternative heat and CHP plant regulation alternative sources Competitive, market-based Local Fuel Operation& Initial pricing mechanisms conditions sourcing Maintenance investment Short- or long-term hedging contracts Regulation when market failures occur (country specific) Prospect for effective competition 13 Towards competitive heat markets and pricing Effective Competitive DH system Attractive Incentives for competition pricing optimization return allowance benchmark performance Fair and Competitive Clear Attractive, World-class effective and value- responsibility risk-adjusted DHC\CHP competition added DH and incentive returns on operators can in local heat through mechanisms refurbishment earn higher markets alternative- for long-term of privatized than average between space based heat DH system DH assets and returns. heating pricing. optimization. on green field alternatives and CHP heat producers. investments. Enhancing market functionality and appropriate regulatory incentives will increase returns in long-run 14 Long-term system optimization – targeting improved capacity utilization “Open district heating” Gas/oils Peak load Condensing mode order priority specific system DH and new products i.e. cooling, bio-oils Cooling load Biomass/coal/gas Middle load Biomass/coal/gas Base load Waste/biomass/coal/gas Figure. Annual production curve of a DHC system • Optimizing the cost of peak heat load through heat trading between customers having own capacity and DH operator – Fortum is running a pilot program on ‘’Open DH system” in Stockholm, Sweden • Improving CHP capacity utilization – Fortum will start industrial scale bio-oil production in Joensuu CHP plant, Finland 15 Long-term potential - competitiveness of energy efficient CHP will increase driven by fuel prices and by need to reduce emissions Global new CHP potential 1,350 TWhe • CHP is local, smaller scale production From 2,000 TWhe up to total 3,350 TWhe by 2020 – Resource efficiency compensates scale – Possibility to use local fuels (bio, waste) • CHP covers about 10% of world electricity supply with significant growth potential Small scale CHP >100 globally • CO2 issue will increase CHP’s Desalination >250 competitiveness • EU’s Industrial Emissions Directive to drive Industrial CHP new CHP investment potential further >500 • Synergy opportunities in the growing bio energy and bio fuel markets District heating >500 • Organic growth potential in emerging markets 16 Fuel flexibility is critical for long-term system optimization EU’s sustainability targets are driving energy efficiency and Fortum’s European heat production in 2011 increased utilization of RES and waste for energy production • Concerns over security of supply and prices of fossil fuels • Cost of CO2 emissions Coal 26% Biomass fuels • Increasing fossil fuel taxation 24% • Dedicated RES support mechanisms (FIT, certificates, investment grants) • Bio fuel price development • More restricted sustainability criteria Other 4% • More competitive European wide biomass and waste markets Peat 3% Natural gas Waste 4% 22% Fuel flexibility and sourcing becoming further critical Oil 5% • Fuel cost has large share in OPEX Heat pumps, electricity • CHP location and local fuel sourcing, logistics and hedging 12% • Multi-fuel boiler technology and availability • O&M excellence European production 22.0 TWh • New CHP concepts (Production capacity 10,625 MW) • CHP is a long-term investment Technology challenges Target to increase • Validation of new fuels • Combustion modelling & testing biomass and waste fuels • On-line combustion monitoring • Co-firing of coal and bio-fuels • Boiler materials 17 CHP strategy calls for continuous asset reshaping • Divestment on non-core assets – EUR 600 million since 2006 • Investments in new CHP plants: – Commissioned CHP’s: Parnu,
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