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Equity story of FORTUM – For a cleaner world Investor / Analyst material May 2020 Disclaimer This presentation does not constitute an invitation to underwrite, subscribe for, or otherwise acquire or dispose of any Fortum shares. Past performance is no guide to future performance, and persons needing advice should consult an independent financial adviser. Any references to the future represent the management’s current best understanding. However the final outcome may differ from them. 2 Content Fortum in brief 4 – 5 Energy market transition 6 – 9 Fortum’s strategic route 10 – 16 Q1 2020 Interim Report 17 – 40 Appendices 41 European and Nordic power markets 42 – 48 Fortum’s power generation 49 – 51 Fortum’s Russian capacity and prices 52 Historical achieved prices 53 Dividend 54 IR contacts 55 3 Fortum in brief Fortum at a glance Description of Fortum Key shareholders Finnish households 12.3% • A leading clean-energy company across the Nordic region, the Baltic • Listed on the Helsinki Financial and countries, Poland, and Russia Stock Exchange since insurance institutions 2.2% 1998 • A circular economy champion, providing solutions for sustainable cities, Other Finnish including waste, recycling, and biomass • Market capitalisation of Finnish investors ~EUR 14bn 9.0% • Rated BBB/CreditWatch Negative and BBB/Rating Watch Negative by State 50.8% S&P and Fitch respectively • Finnish State is a majority owner • In 2018, Fortum closed its tender offer to shareholders in Uniper (holding Foreign investors of 49.99% of the outstanding shares and voting rights as of 31.12.2018), in 25.7% 2020 additional >20% stake to be closed 30.4.2020 Operations by business segment Production by source Consumer Solutions 8% City Natural gas 37% Natural gas 59% Coal 18% Solutions Generation Nuclear 17% 50% power 31% Waste 10% (1) Waste1% Power Heat EBITDA Wind, solar 1% EUR 1.8 bn Biomass 1% 76.3 TWh 26.4 TWh Coal 3% Biomass 9% Heat pumps, electricity Peat 1% 2% Russia 25% Hydropower 26% Others 1% Note: All data as of FYE 2019 unless otherwise stated, Uniper will be consolidated from Q2/2020 onwards 4 (1) Comparable EBITDA defined as operating profit plus depreciation and amortisation less items affecting comparability Fortum in brief Fortum’s geographical footprint Nordic countries Russia Key figures 2019 PAO Fortum #3 Power generation Sales EUR 5.4 bn 45.5 TWh Comparable Heat sales Power generation EBITDA EUR 1.8 bn #5 #10 5.9 TWh 29.3 TWh Total assets EUR 23 bn Electricity customers Heat sales #1 #7 Personnel 8,200 2.3 million 16.9 TWh Poland Baltic countries Sales by market area 2019 Power generation Power generation Poland Other 4% 0.6 TWh 0.7 TWh 7% Nordics Heat sales Heat sales 69% 3.3 TWh 1.5 TWh Russia 20% EUR 5.4 bn x = Fortum market share ranking Note: Ranking based on year 2018 pro forma figures Source: Fortum, company data, shares of the largest actors 5 Energy market transition Europe needs to eliminate CO2 emissions to reach climate goals – this requires actions from all sectors MtCO2-eq 6 000 Greenhouse gas emissions 5 000 Coal Power 4 000 - 40% 3 000 Oil 1 Transport -50…-55% - 60% 2 000 Old climate targets Industry2 Gas - 80% 1 000 Buildings3 Others Others4 - 95% 0 Source Sector -100% 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Sources: EEA, IEA, Fortum 1 including international aviation and marine 2 6 iron & steel and chemicals are among the biggest contributors 3 residential and commercial heating & cooling 4 non-energy related emissions: industrial processes and product use, waste management, agriculture, fugitive emissions Energy market transition Volatility and uncertainty in the European power market increases the value of flexible assets Intermittent renewables Nuclear and coal closures Increasing role of gas Volatility and Supply-demand balance uncertainty Increased interconnection between Nordics and Continent Commodity and CO2 prices Weather conditions 7 Energy market transition The MSR introduces tightness to carbon market Linear reduction factor (LRF) tightens the market Market stability reserve restores scarcity by Abatement from coal to gas switching depends reducing future auction volumes on coal and gas prices, together represented by MtCO2 a switching range 2500 Eur/t 60 24% of cumulative surplus Need for abatement 2000 CO2eq.) of or inventory reduction Switch range CO2 price 50 1500 (Mton 40 1000 Cap (excl. aviation) 57% of cap 30 500 20 EU ETS emissions (incl. call on EUAs from aviation) 0 Illustrative volumes 10 43% of of cap 43% Free Auction MSR Auction Deficit Emissions 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2030 2032 2034 2036 2038 2040 2042 2044 2046 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2048 2050 0 allocation pre- effec post- 2017 2018 2019 2020 MSR t MSR 2 • Linear reduction factor (LRF) is the percentage of • When TNAC > 833 Mt, MSR deducts 24% of the • CO2 price has almost quadrupled since November baseline supply1 by which the annual supply of TNAC from the auction volume each year placing 2017, when the final decision was reached on the allowances (cap) is reduced every year. LRF is set them into the reserve during 2019-2023 future EU ETS rules, including the intake rate of the at • MSR rate is 12% during 2024-2030 Market Stability Reserve, which became • 1.74% for 2013-2020 (equals to a reduction • When TNAC < 400 Mt, MSR releases 100 million operational in January 2019 of 38 MtCO2/year) EUAs annually from the reserve adding them to • Market tightness forces the EUA market to find • 2.2% for 2021-2030 (equals to a reduction future auctions ways to reducing demand, including by coal-to-gas of 48 MtCO2/year) • 900 million back loaded allowances from 2014-2016 switching, making the relative gas/coal price an • In total, emissions are set to decrease by 43% by will be transferred into the MSR in 2019-2020 important price anchor for CO2 2030 vs. 2005 • As from 2023, allowances in MSR above the total • Political risks also continue to play a role in EUA • Next LRF review is scheduled for 2024 number of allowances auctioned during the previous prices, with developments around Brexit and • 3.03% LRF from 2030 onwards would year will be cancelled national coal phase-out policies in particular being deliver net zero emissions by 2050 • Next MSR review is scheduled in 2021 closely watched 2 TNAC = total number of allowances in circulation = Efficiency assumptions in switching range; 1 8 Average annual total quantity of allowances released in 2008-2012. supply – (demand + allowances in the MSR). According to the latest at low-end: gas 52% and coal 34%; at high- publication May 15, 2018 the TNAC corresponds to 1655 million end: gas 48% and coal 38%. O&M cost allowances. assumptions apply. Energy market transition Several Western European countries exiting coal over the next decade FI: Phase-out • France to phase out coal from power sector at latest in 2022 Germany: Phase- by 2029 out by 2038 • United Kingdom to exclude coal condense from capacity SE: Last coal plant to close market by capping allowed emissions from 2025 2022 UK: Phase-out by • Netherlands’ new government aims at exit by 2030, regulation 2025 not yet in place • Poland: investments in new coal generation, after 2025 will be NL: Phase-out by 2030 based on CHP or other technologies, which will allow the emission standards on the level of 450kg CO2 per MWh of generated energy FR: Phase-out by 2022 • Germany’s coal phaseout law was agreed by the cabinet in January and currently awaits for parliamentary approval – By end-2022, only 15 GW of hard coal and 15 GW of lignite is allowed in the AT: Phase-out by 2025 market, compared to 21 GW and 18 GW at end-2019 • By end-2030, 8 GW of hard coal and 9 GW of lignite allowed in the market • Full coal exit by end-2038, with an option for an early exit already in 2035 PT: Phase-out by 2030 – Compensation for hard coal operators is to based on reverse auctions set to start already in 2020, provided the draft enters into law – Compensation for lignite closures will be agreed on one-by-one basis and will follow a formula based on, inter alia, expected earnings IT: Phase-out by 2025 – The government intends to cancel European Emission Allowances in order to neutralize the phaseout’s impact on the EU ETS Phase-out from Phase-out from Phase-out from Phase-out commitment power sector power sector power sector mainly via “Powering latest by 2025 latest by 2030 latest by 2040 past coal Alliance” 9 Fortum’s strategic route Positioning Fortum for the decade of electricity – For a cleaner world 10 Fortum’s strategic route Delivering on financial targets through operational excellence and portfolio optimisation in the short to mid term Strategic priorities… … creating value Operational excellence • Continue productivity improvement • Benchmark performance • Prioritise capital expenditure • Optimise cash flow Increased flexibility • Strengthen balance sheet • Maximise flexibility in current businesses and assets • Develop new sources of flexibility • Create financial flexibility Solid investment grade rating Value creation and portfolio optimisation • • Ensure competitive asset fit for changing business environment • Focus on core businesses • Selective investments 11 Fortum’s strategic route Consolidated Fortum is the third largest CO2 free generator in Europe 12 Source: Company information, Fortum analyses, 2018 figures pro forma. EPH incl. LEAG Fortum’s strategic route Scale, competences and resources to prosper, grow and lead European energy transition 2019 combined Comparable Combined power generation assets(2) EBITDA(1) Fortum EUR 1.8 bln Nordics Russia EUR 3.3 bln #2 #3 Uniper EUR 1.6 bln Baltics Combined capacity split(3) UK Low + Zero emissions NL 17% Germany Poland Hydro 9% Nuclear #2 45% 48.6 GW Gas 7% + India Other termal Hungary Other 22% Fortum Uniper Combined geographical presence Combined market positions (1) Coal phased out over time (1) Comparable EBITDA is based on the Fortum's Comparable EBITDA and Uniper's Adjusted EBITDA as defined in Fortum’s and Uniper's financial statements.
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