Global Debt Monitor Sharp Spike in Debt Ratios
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The TIPS-Treasury Bond Puzzle
The TIPS-Treasury Bond Puzzle Matthias Fleckenstein, Francis A. Longstaff and Hanno Lustig The Journal of Finance, October 2014 Presented By: Rafael A. Porsani The TIPS-Treasury Bond Puzzle 1 / 55 Introduction The TIPS-Treasury Bond Puzzle 2 / 55 Introduction (1) Treasury bond and the Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) markets: two of the largest and most actively traded fixed-income markets in the world. Find that there is persistent mispricing on a massive scale across them. Treasury bonds are consistently overpriced relative to TIPS. Price of a Treasury bond can exceed that of an inflation-swapped TIPS issue exactly matching the cash flows of the Treasury bond by more than $20 per $100 notional amount. One of the largest examples of arbitrage ever documented. The TIPS-Treasury Bond Puzzle 3 / 55 Introduction (2) Use TIPS plus inflation swaps to create synthetic Treasury bond. Price differences between the synthetic Treasury bond and the nominal Treasury bond: arbitrage opportunities. Average size of the mispricing: 54.5 basis points, but can exceed 200 basis points for some pairs. I The average size of this mispricing is orders of magnitude larger than transaction costs. The TIPS-Treasury Bond Puzzle 4 / 55 Introduction (3) What drives the mispricing? Slow-moving capital may help explain why mispricing persists. Is TIPS-Treasury mispricing related to changes in capital available to hedge funds? Answer: Yes. Mispricing gets smaller as more capital gets to the hedge fund sector. The TIPS-Treasury Bond Puzzle 5 / 55 Introduction (4) Also find that: Correlation in arbitrage strategies: size of TIPS-Treasury arbitrage is correlated with arbitrage mispricing in other markets. -
Economic Quarterly
Forecasting the Effects of Reduced Defense Spending Peter Irel’and and Chtitopher Omk ’ I. INTRODUCTION $1 cut in defense spending acts to decrease the total demand for goods and services in each period by $1. The end of the Cold War provides the United Of course, so long as the government has access to States with an opportunity to cut its defense the same production technologies that are available spending significantly. Indeed, the Bush Administra- to the private sector, this prediction of the tion’s 1992-1997 Future Years Defense Program neoclassical model does not change if instead the (presented in 1991 and therefore referred to as the government produces the defense services itself.’ “1991 plan”) calls for a 20 percent reduction in real defense spending by 1997. Although expenditures A permanent $1 cut in defense spending also related to Operation Desert Storm have delayed the reduces the government’s need for tax revenue; it implementation of the 199 1 plan, policymakers con- implies that taxes can be cut by $1 in each period. tinue to call for defense cutbacks. In fact, since Bush’s Households, therefore, are wealthier following the plan was drafted prior to the collapse of the Soviet cut in defense spending; their permanent income in- Union, it seems likely that the Clinton Administra- creases by $b1. According to the permanent income tion will propose cuts in defense spending that are hypothesis, this $1 increase in permanent income even deeper than those specified by the 1991 plan. induces households to increase their consumption by This paper draws on both theoretical and empirical $1 in every period, provided that their labor supply economic models to forecast the effects that these does not change. -
Income Distribution, Household Debt, and Aggregate Demand: a Critical Assessment
Working Paper No. 901 Income Distribution, Household Debt, and Aggregate Demand: A Critical Assessment J. W. Mason* Department of Economics, John Jay College-CUNY and The Roosevelt Institute March 2018 * I thank David Alpert, Heather Boushey, Barry Cynamon, Sandy Darity, Steve Fazzari, Arjun Jayadev, Matthew Klein, and Suresh Naidu for helpful comments on earlier versions of this paper. The Levy Economics Institute Working Paper Collection presents research in progress by Levy Institute scholars and conference participants. The purpose of the series is to disseminate ideas to and elicit comments from academics and professionals. Levy Economics Institute of Bard College, founded in 1986, is a nonprofit, nonpartisan, independently funded research organization devoted to public service. Through scholarship and economic research it generates viable, effective public policy responses to important economic problems that profoundly affect the quality of life in the United States and abroad. Levy Economics Institute P.O. Box 5000 Annandale-on-Hudson, NY 12504-5000 http://www.levyinstitute.org Copyright © Levy Economics Institute 2018 All rights reserved ISSN 1547-366X ABSTRACT During the period leading up to the recession of 2007–08, there was a large increase in household debt relative to income, a large increase in measured consumption as a fraction of GDP, and a shift toward more unequal income distribution. It is sometimes claimed that these three developments were closely linked. In these stories, the rise in household debt is largely due to increased borrowing by lower-income households who sought to maintain rising consumption in the face of stagnant incomes; this increased consumption in turn played an important role in maintaining aggregate demand. -
Evidence from SME Bond Markets
Temi di discussione (Working Papers) Asymmetric information in corporate lending: evidence from SME bond markets by Alessandra Iannamorelli, Stefano Nobili, Antonio Scalia and Luana Zaccaria September 2020 September Number 1292 Temi di discussione (Working Papers) Asymmetric information in corporate lending: evidence from SME bond markets by Alessandra Iannamorelli, Stefano Nobili, Antonio Scalia and Luana Zaccaria Number 1292 - September 2020 The papers published in the Temi di discussione series describe preliminary results and are made available to the public to encourage discussion and elicit comments. The views expressed in the articles are those of the authors and do not involve the responsibility of the Bank. Editorial Board: Federico Cingano, Marianna Riggi, Monica Andini, Audinga Baltrunaite, Marco Bottone, Davide Delle Monache, Sara Formai, Francesco Franceschi, Salvatore Lo Bello, Juho Taneli Makinen, Luca Metelli, Mario Pietrunti, Marco Savegnago. Editorial Assistants: Alessandra Giammarco, Roberto Marano. ISSN 1594-7939 (print) ISSN 2281-3950 (online) Printed by the Printing and Publishing Division of the Bank of Italy ASYMMETRIC INFORMATION IN CORPORATE LENDING: EVIDENCE FROM SME BOND MARKETS by Alessandra Iannamorelli†, Stefano Nobili†, Antonio Scalia† and Luana Zaccaria‡ Abstract Using a comprehensive dataset of Italian SMEs, we find that differences between private and public information on creditworthiness affect firms’ decisions to issue debt securities. Surprisingly, our evidence supports positive (rather than adverse) selection. Holding public information constant, firms with better private fundamentals are more likely to access bond markets. Additionally, credit conditions improve for issuers following the bond placement, compared with a matched sample of non-issuers. These results are consistent with a model where banks offer more flexibility than markets during financial distress and firms may use market lending to signal credit quality to outside stakeholders. -
Corporate Bonds and Debentures
Corporate Bonds and Debentures FCS Vinita Nair Vinod Kothari Company Kolkata: New Delhi: Mumbai: 1006-1009, Krishna A-467, First Floor, 403-406, Shreyas Chambers 224 AJC Bose Road Defence Colony, 175, D N Road, Fort Kolkata – 700 017 New Delhi-110024 Mumbai Phone: 033 2281 3742/7715 Phone: 011 41315340 Phone: 022 2261 4021/ 6237 0959 Email: [email protected] Email: [email protected] Email: [email protected] Website: www.vinodkothari.com 1 Copyright & Disclaimer . This presentation is only for academic purposes; this is not intended to be a professional advice or opinion. Anyone relying on this does so at one’s own discretion. Please do consult your professional consultant for any matter covered by this presentation. The contents of the presentation are intended solely for the use of the client to whom the same is marked by us. No circulation, publication, or unauthorised use of the presentation in any form is allowed, except with our prior written permission. No part of this presentation is intended to be solicitation of professional assignment. 2 About Us Vinod Kothari and Company, company secretaries, is a firm with over 30 years of vintage Based out of Kolkata, New Delhi & Mumbai We are a team of qualified company secretaries, chartered accountants, lawyers and managers. Our Organization’s Credo: Focus on capabilities; opportunities follow 3 Law & Practice relating to Corporate Bonds & Debentures 4 The book can be ordered by clicking here Outline . Introduction to Debentures . State of Indian Bond Market . Comparison of debentures with other forms of borrowings/securities . Types of Debentures . Modes of Issuance & Regulatory Framework . -
Corporate Bond Market Dysfunction During COVID-19 and Lessons
Hutchins Center Working Paper # 69 O c t o b e r 2 0 2 0 Corporate Bond Market Dysfunction During COVID-19 and Lessons from the Fed’s Response J. Nellie Liang* October 1, 2020 Abstract: Changes in the financial sector since the global financial crisis appear to have increased dramatically the demand for liquidity by holders of corporate bonds beyond the ability of the markets to provide it in stress events. The March market turmoil revealed the costs of liquidity mismatch in open-end bond mutual funds. The surprisingly large redemptions of investment-grade corporate bond funds added to stresses in both the corporate bond and Treasury markets. These conditions led to unprecedented Fed interventions, which significantly reduced risk spreads and improved market functioning, with much of the improvements occurring right after the initial announcement. The improved conditions allowed companies to issue bonds, which helped them to maintain employees and investment spending. The episode suggests several areas for further study and possible reforms. * J. Nellie Liang, Hutchins Center on Fiscal and Monetary Policy, Brookings Institution ([email protected]). I would like to thank Darrell Duffie, Bill English, Anil Kashyap, Donald Kohn, Patrick Parkinson, Jeremy Stein, Adi Sunderam, David Wessel, and Alex Zhou for helpful comments and insights, and Manuel Alcalá Kovalski for excellent research assistance. THIS PAPER IS ONLINE AT https://www.brookings.edu/research/corporate- bond-market-dysfunction-during-covid-19-and- lessons-from-the-feds-response/ 1. Introduction As concerns about the pandemic’s effect on economic activity in early March escalated, asset prices began to move in unusual ways—including the prices of investment-grade corporate bonds. -
Interest-Rate-Growth Differentials and Government Debt Dynamics
From: OECD Journal: Economic Studies Access the journal at: http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/19952856 Interest-rate-growth differentials and government debt dynamics David Turner, Francesca Spinelli Please cite this article as: Turner, David and Francesca Spinelli (2012), “Interest-rate-growth differentials and government debt dynamics”, OECD Journal: Economic Studies, Vol. 2012/1. http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/eco_studies-2012-5k912k0zkhf8 This document and any map included herein are without prejudice to the status of or sovereignty over any territory, to the delimitation of international frontiers and boundaries and to the name of any territory, city or area. OECD Journal: Economic Studies Volume 2012 © OECD 2013 Interest-rate-growth differentials and government debt dynamics by David Turner and Francesca Spinelli* The differential between the interest rate paid to service government debt and the growth rate of the economy is a key concept in assessing fiscal sustainability. Among OECD economies, this differential was unusually low for much of the last decade compared with the 1980s and the first half of the 1990s. This article investigates the reasons behind this profile using panel estimation on selected OECD economies as means of providing some guidance as to its future development. The results suggest that the fall is partly explained by lower inflation volatility associated with the adoption of monetary policy regimes credibly targeting low inflation, which might be expected to continue. However, the low differential is also partly explained by factors which are likely to be reversed in the future, including very low policy rates, the “global savings glut” and the effect which the European Monetary Union had in reducing long-term interest differentials in the pre-crisis period. -
Nber Working Paper Series Facts and Fantasies About
NBER WORKING PAPER SERIES FACTS AND FANTASIES ABOUT COMMODITY FUTURES TEN YEARS LATER Geetesh Bhardwaj Gary Gorton Geert Rouwenhorst Working Paper 21243 http://www.nber.org/papers/w21243 NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH 1050 Massachusetts Avenue Cambridge, MA 02138 June 2015 The paper has benefited from comments by seminar participants at the 2015 Bloomberg Global Commodity Investment Roundtable, the 2015 FTSE World Investment Forum, and from Rajkumar Janardanan, Kurt Nelson, Ashraf Rizvi, and Matthew Schwab. Gorton has nothing to currently disclose. He was a consultant to AIG Financial Products from 1996-2008. The views expressed herein are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Bureau of Economic Research. At least one co-author has disclosed a financial relationship of potential relevance for this research. Further information is available online at http://www.nber.org/papers/w21243.ack NBER working papers are circulated for discussion and comment purposes. They have not been peer- reviewed or been subject to the review by the NBER Board of Directors that accompanies official NBER publications. © 2015 by Geetesh Bhardwaj, Gary Gorton, and Geert Rouwenhorst. All rights reserved. Short sections of text, not to exceed two paragraphs, may be quoted without explicit permission provided that full credit, including © notice, is given to the source. Facts and Fantasies about Commodity Futures Ten Years Later Geetesh Bhardwaj, Gary Gorton, and Geert Rouwenhorst NBER Working Paper No. 21243 June 2015 JEL No. G1,G11,G12 ABSTRACT Gorton and Rouwenhorst (2006) examined commodity futures returns over the period July 1959 to December 2004 based on an equally-weighted index. -
Box A: Household Sector Risks in China
Box A Household Sector Risks in China The growth and level of corporate debt in decline in interest rates in China over the China has received significant attention, but 2010s have also raised households’ ability to household debt has also grown rapidly, albeit service debt. The increase in debt has also from a much lower base. The rise in been accompanied by a sharp rise in housing household debt over the past decade is prices. notable because it can negatively affect both Mortgage debt has been the biggest driver [1] financial stability and economic growth. of the increase in household debt over the This Box assesses the direct risk that past decade, and now accounts for around household debt poses to the financial system half of household debt in China (Graph A.2). in China. Credit card debt has also risen strongly. Household debt in China has grown at an Growth in personal business loans has been average annual rate of more than 20 per cent less pronounced, but these loans still account over the past decade. As a result, the ratio of for around 20 per cent of household debt. household debt to GDP has increased Growth in some riskier types of household sharply, from about 20 per cent in 2009 to debt not measured in official household debt around 55 per cent currently (Graph A.1). This statistics, such as peer-to-peer (P2P) and ratio is lower than in most advanced other online lending, has been particularly economies, but is higher than in many other strong in the past few years, although it has large emerging market economies. -
Does Greater Inequality Lead to More Household Borrowing? New Evidence from Household Data
FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF SAN FRANCISCO WORKING PAPER SERIES Does Greater Inequality Lead to More Household Borrowing? New Evidence from Household Data Olivier Coibion UT Austin and NBER Yuriy Gorodnichenko UC Berkeley and NBER Marianna Kudlyak Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco John Mondragon Northwestern University August 2016 Working Paper 2016-20 http://www.frbsf.org/economic-research/publications/working-papers/wp2016-20.pdf Suggested citation: Coibion, Olivier, Yuriy Gorodnichenko, Marianna Kudlyak, John Mondragon. 2016. “Does Greater Inequality Lead to More Household Borrowing? New Evidence from Household Data” Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Working Paper 2016-20. http://www.frbsf.org/economic-research/publications/working-papers/wp2016-20.pdf The views in this paper are solely the responsibility of the authors and should not be interpreted as reflecting the views of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco or the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. Does Greater Inequality Lead to More Household Borrowing? New Evidence from Household Data Olivier Coibion Yuriy Gorodnichenko UT Austin and NBER UC Berkeley and NBER [email protected] [email protected] Marianna Kudlyak John Mondragon Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Northwestern University [email protected] [email protected] First Draft: December, 2013 This Draft: August, 2016 Abstract: Using household-level debt data over 2000-2012 and local variation in inequality, we show that low-income households in high-inequality regions (zip-codes, counties, states) accumulated less debt (relative to their income) than low-income households in lower-inequality regions, contrary to the prevailing view. -
Collateralized Loan Obligations (Clos) July 2021 ASSET MANAGEMENT | FACT SHEET
® Collateralized Loan Obligations (CLOs) July 2021 ASSET MANAGEMENT | FACT SHEET Conning believes that CLOs are a compelling asset class for insurers in today’s market. As floating-rate securities, they offer income protection in varying market environments while also minimizing duration. At the same time, CLO securities (i.e. tranches) typically offer higher yields than similarly rated corporate bonds and other structured products. The asset class also provides strong capital preservation through structural protections and investor-oriented covenants. Historically, the CLO structure has proven to be extremely resilient through multiple market cycles. In fact there has never been a default in the AAA and AA -rated CLO debt tranches.1 Negative correlation to U.S. Treasury Bonds and low correlations to U.S. investment grade corporate bonds and equities present valuable diversification benefits. CLOs also offer an opportunity to access debt issuers that do not participate in the high-yield bond markets. How CLOs Work Team The CLO collateral manager purchases a portfolio of loans (typically 150-300) Andrew Gordon using the proceeds from the sale of CLO tranches (debt & equity). The interest Octagon, CEO earned from the loan collateral pool is used to pay the coupon to the CLO liabili- 37 years of experience ties. The residual cash flow, after paying the interest on the CLO liabilities and all expenses, is distributed to the holders of the CLO equity. Notably, loan portfolio Gretchen Lam, CFA losses are first absorbed by these equity investors. CLOs are typically rated by Octagon, Senior Portfolio Manager S&P, Moody’s and / or Fitch. -
What Are High-Yield Corporate Bonds?
INVESTOR BULLETIN What Are High-yield Corporate Bonds? The SEC’s Office of Investor Education and Advocacy is a high-yield bond, it is important that you understand issuing this Investor Bulletin to educate individual investors the risks involved. about high-yield corporate bonds, also called “junk bonds.” While they generally offer a higher yield than investment-grade Default risk. Also referred to as credit risk, this is the bonds, high-yield bonds also carry a higher risk of default. risk that a company will fail to make timely interest or principal payments and default on its bond. Defaults also What is a high-yield corporate bond? can occur if the company fails to meet certain terms of its A high-yield corporate bond is a type of corporate bond debt agreement. Because high-yield bonds are typically that offers a higher rate of interest because of its higher issued by companies with higher risks of default, this risk risk of default. When companies with a greater estimated is particularly important to consider when investing in default risk issue bonds, they may be unable to obtain high-yield bonds. an investment-grade bond credit rating. As a result, they Interest rate risk. typically issue bonds with higher interest rates in order to Market interest rates have a major entice investors and compensate them for this higher risk. impact on bond investments. The price of a bond moves in the opposite direction than market interest rates—like High-yield bond issuers may be companies characterized opposing ends of a seesaw. This presents investors with as highly leveraged or those experiencing financial interest rate risk, which is common to all bonds.