DOCSLIB.ORG

Does Greater Inequality Lead to More Household Borrowing? New Evidence from Household Data

Total Page：16

File Type：pdf, Size：1020Kb

Download full-text PDF Read full-text
Does Greater Inequality Lead to More Household Borrowing? New Evidence from Household Data FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF SAN FRANCISCO WORKING PAPER SERIES Does Greater Inequality Lead to More Household Borrowing? New Evidence from Household Data Olivier Coibion UT Austin and NBER Yuriy Gorodnichenko UC Berkeley and NBER Marianna Kudlyak Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco John Mondragon Northwestern University August 2016 Working Paper 2016-20 http://www.frbsf.org/economic-research/publications/working-papers/wp2016-20.pdf Suggested citation: Coibion, Olivier, Yuriy Gorodnichenko, Marianna Kudlyak, John Mondragon. 2016. “Does Greater Inequality Lead to More Household Borrowing? New Evidence from Household Data” Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Working Paper 2016-20. http://www.frbsf.org/economic-research/publications/working-papers/wp2016-20.pdf The views in this paper are solely the responsibility of the authors and should not be interpreted as reflecting the views of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco or the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. Does Greater Inequality Lead to More Household Borrowing? New Evidence from Household Data Olivier Coibion Yuriy Gorodnichenko UT Austin and NBER UC Berkeley and NBER [email protected] [email protected] Marianna Kudlyak John Mondragon Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Northwestern University [email protected] [email protected] First Draft: December, 2013 This Draft: August, 2016 Abstract: Using household-level debt data over 2000-2012 and local variation in inequality, we show that low-income households in high-inequality regions (zip-codes, counties, states) accumulated less debt (relative to their income) than low-income households in lower-inequality regions, contrary to the prevailing view. Furthermore, the price of credit is higher and access to credit is harder for low-income households in high-inequality versus low-inequality regions. Lower quantities combined with higher prices suggest that the debt accumulation pattern by household income across areas with different inequality is a result of credit supply rather than credit demand. We propose a lending model to illustrate the mechanism. JEL: E21, E51, D14, G21 Keywords: inequality, household debt, credit, income, Great Recession We are grateful to Meta Brown, Donghoon Lee, and seminar participants at the CES-Ifo, Cologne, CREI, Boston College, LBS, NBER SI ME and EFACR, Rice, SED in Toronto, Tinbergen Institute, U. of Houston, VCU, FRB New York, FRB Richmond, FRB St. Louis, FRB San Francisco, FRB Philadelphia Payments Center, FR Board, Bank of Netherlands, European University Institute, EEA-ESEM in Toulouse, EEA-ESEM in Mannheim, BYU Red Rock Conference in Utah, IBEFA conference in Denver for helpful comments. The views expressed here are those of the authors and do not reflect those of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco or the Federal Reserve System or any other institution with which the authors are affiliated. Mondragon thanks the Richmond Fed for their generous support while part of this paper was written as well as support from the NSF. Gorodnichenko thanks the NSF and Sloan Foundation for financial support. 1 Introduction The financial crisis of 2008-09 was preceded by an exceptional rise in borrowing by U.S. households, which had been on a rise since the 1980s. Over the same period, income inequality in the U.S. increased to the highest levels seen in the post-war period (see Figure 1). These striking movements motivate a question about a possible link between the two trends, and, in particular, whether the rise in income inequality may have caused some of the increase in household leverage. Establishing a causal link has proven challenging for modern theories of consumption and income. A large literature documents that the rising inequality is a result of permanent changes of incomes rather than temporary increases in income volatility;1 standard theory then predicts that households facing permanent declines in income should adjust their consumption downwards and curb their borrowing. To rationalize the increase in household debt, the literature has called for alternative consumption theories and explanations: keeping up with the rich/Joneses (Veblen, 1899), expenditure cascades (Frank, Levine, and Dijk, 2014), a need to sustain past living standards (Stiglitz, 2009), or government incentives to lenders for expanding credit to low-income groups (Rajan, 2010). Implicit in these mechanisms is an assumption that the increased debt is mainly driven by lower- income households.2 The assumption also appears in-line with the prevailing view of the role the low- income/subprime segment in the 2008-09 crisis.3 Despite the issue being at the heart of the debate regarding the 2007-09 crisis, no evidence exists on how household debt accumulations across income groups varies with income inequality. In this paper, we study how household debt accumulation varied with income inequality over 2000-2012. Is it the case that poorer households accumulated more debt when faced with higher inequality? We use nationally- representative household-level U.S. credit bureau data from the New York Federal Reserve Bank Consumer Credit Panel/Equifax (CCP) which provide comprehensive panel data on debt for millions of U.S. households since 1999. First, we exploit cross-sectional variation in income inequality (zip codes, counties and states) and examine how household debt accumulation (relative to income) varied with a household’s relative standing in the local income distribution and local income inequality. Our estimation of the evolution of household debt is akin to a “difference- in-differences” approach across income groups and regional inequality levels. Considerable cross-sectional variation in local inequality allows us to conduct numerous subsample and robustness checks to isolate the role of inequality from other potential local influences.4 Second, we use loan application data from Home Mortgage 1 See, for example, Moffitt and Gottschalk (2002, 2008), Sablehaus and Song (2009), Kopczuk, Saez, and Song (2010), Piketty and Saez (2013). 2 A long line of behavioral thought rationalizes income dispersion effects on household debt through “keeping up” motives. As inequality increases, high-income households are able to consume relatively more than low-income households. If low-income households experience a disutility from not consuming equivalent amounts as high-income households, they might try to maintain a higher level of consumption, potentially funded by debt. 3 See, for example, Mian and Sufi (2009), Demyanyk and Van Hemert (2011), Keys, Mukherjee, Seru, and Vig (2010), and Mian and Sufi (2014), among others. 4 Furthermore, much of the rise in income inequality in the U.S. since the 1970s reflects a rise in inequality within regions rather than inequality across regions. 1 Disclosure Act (HMDA) and examine how credit prices—interest on loans and access to credit—varied across regions with different local inequality for households with different incomes. In contrast to the prevailing view, we find that lower-income households accumulated less debt in high- inequality regions than lower-income households in low-inequality regions. Furthermore, we find that the price of credit is higher and the access to credit is harder for low-income borrowers in high inequality areas than for low-income borrowers in low inequality regions. Lower quantities combined with higher prices suggest that the patterns of debt accumulation by household income across areas with different inequality are likely a results of credit supply rather than a credit demand mechanism. To demonstrate the mechanism, we present a simple lending model in which lenders use household position in local income distribution and local inequality to draw inferences about borrowers’ types. Our work is the first to challenge the prevailing narrative of the 2007-09 financial crisis by which the growth in debt was driven by low-income/subprime borrowers.5 Consistent with modern theories of consumption, we find no evidence of low-income households driving the debt increase when faced with higher inequality and our results are broadly consistent with new evidence that consumption inequality is in fact mirroring income inequality (Aguiar and Bils, 2015). Our results find no evidence of banks disproportionately expanding credit to the low-income households which are typically high risk. As a side-product of our analysis, we develop a novel, reliable income imputation procedure for the credit bureau data. Specifically, while the CCP data provide detailed debt and location information, they do not contain information on income. Our imputation procedure exploits the relationship between household debt and income in the Survey of Consumer Finances. We demonstrate that our imputation is robust and capable of recovering local income distribution statistics with high accuracy. The imputation allows the study of the relationship between income and debt in an unprecedented detail and thus significantly increases the scope of the CCP. The results that low-income households in high-inequality regions borrowed relatively less than low- income households in low-inequality regions are robust to using different subsamples and specifications. The results hold within households with low or high credit scores, within regions which experienced either high or low home price appreciation, within households with either low or high initial debt levels, etc.; they hold across different levels of aggregation (zip code,
Load more

Recommended publications
  • Income Distribution, Household Debt, and Aggregate Demand: a Critical Assessment
    Working Paper No. 901 Income Distribution, Household Debt, and Aggregate Demand: A Critical Assessment J. W. Mason* Department of Economics, John Jay College-CUNY and The Roosevelt Institute March 2018 * I thank David Alpert, Heather Boushey, Barry Cynamon, Sandy Darity, Steve Fazzari, Arjun Jayadev, Matthew Klein, and Suresh Naidu for helpful comments on earlier versions of this paper. The Levy Economics Institute Working Paper Collection presents research in progress by Levy Institute scholars and conference participants. The purpose of the series is to disseminate ideas to and elicit comments from academics and professionals. Levy Economics Institute of Bard College, founded in 1986, is a nonprofit, nonpartisan, independently funded research organization devoted to public service. Through scholarship and economic research it generates viable, effective public policy responses to important economic problems that profoundly affect the quality of life in the United States and abroad. Levy Economics Institute P.O. Box 5000 Annandale-on-Hudson, NY 12504-5000 http://www.levyinstitute.org Copyright © Levy Economics Institute 2018 All rights reserved ISSN 1547-366X ABSTRACT During the period leading up to the recession of 2007–08, there was a large increase in household debt relative to income, a large increase in measured consumption as a fraction of GDP, and a shift toward more unequal income distribution. It is sometimes claimed that these three developments were closely linked. In these stories, the rise in household debt is largely due to increased borrowing by lower-income households who sought to maintain rising consumption in the face of stagnant incomes; this increased consumption in turn played an important role in maintaining aggregate demand.
    [Show full text]
  • Box A: Household Sector Risks in China
    Box A Household Sector Risks in China The growth and level of corporate debt in decline in interest rates in China over the China has received significant attention, but 2010s have also raised households’ ability to household debt has also grown rapidly, albeit service debt. The increase in debt has also from a much lower base. The rise in been accompanied by a sharp rise in housing household debt over the past decade is prices. notable because it can negatively affect both Mortgage debt has been the biggest driver [1] financial stability and economic growth. of the increase in household debt over the This Box assesses the direct risk that past decade, and now accounts for around household debt poses to the financial system half of household debt in China (Graph A.2). in China. Credit card debt has also risen strongly. Household debt in China has grown at an Growth in personal business loans has been average annual rate of more than 20 per cent less pronounced, but these loans still account over the past decade. As a result, the ratio of for around 20 per cent of household debt. household debt to GDP has increased Growth in some riskier types of household sharply, from about 20 per cent in 2009 to debt not measured in official household debt around 55 per cent currently (Graph A.1). This statistics, such as peer-to-peer (P2P) and ratio is lower than in most advanced other online lending, has been particularly economies, but is higher than in many other strong in the past few years, although it has large emerging market economies.
    [Show full text]
  • Information Paper on Quarterly
    information paper on economic statistics QUARTERLY HOUSEHOLD SECTOR BALANCE SHEET Singapore Department of Statistics October 2012 Papers in this Information Paper Series are intended to inform and clarify conceptual and methodological changes and improvements in official statistics. The views expressed are based on the latest methodological developments in the international statistical community. Statistical estimates presented in the papers are based on new or revised official statistics compiled from the best available data. Comments and suggestions are welcome. © Singapore Department of Statistics. All rights reserved. Please direct enquiries on this information paper to: Institutional Sector Accounts Singapore Department of Statistics Tel : 6332 7096 Email : [email protected] Application for the copyright owner’s written permission to reproduce any part of this publication should be addressed to the Chief Statistician and emailed to the above address. QUARTERLY HOUSEHOLD SECTOR BALANCE SHEET I. Introduction 1. Since 2003, the Singapore Department of Statistics (DOS) has compiled the household balance sheet on an annual basis from reference year 2000. DOS has successfully developed and compiled the quarterly household sector balance sheet from reference quarter Q1 1995 (Annex A). DOS has not only improved the frequency and timeliness on the release of the household sector balance sheet, but has also incorporated methodological, conceptual and data refinements underlying the development of the quarterly series. 2. This paper is structured as follows: Section II provides the concepts and definitions. Section III highlights improvements in concepts, methodologies and data sources. Section IV analyses and identifies key trends underlying the quarterly household sector balance sheet. Section V compares the health of household sector balance sheets among selected countries.
    [Show full text]
  • Will US Consumer Debt Reduction Cripple the Recovery?
    McKinsey Global Institute March 2009 Will US consumer debt reduction cripple the recovery? McKinsey Global Institute The McKinsey Global Institute (MGI), founded in 1990, is McKinsey & Company’s economics research arm. MGI’s mission is to help business and government leaders develop a deeper understanding of the evolution of the global economy and provide a fact base that contributes to decision making on critical management and policy issues. MGI’s research is a unique combination of two disciplines: economics and management. By integrating these two perspectives, MGI is able to gain insights into the microeconomic underpinnings of the broad trends shaping the global economy. MGI has utilized this “micro-to-macro” approach in research covering more than 15 countries and 28 industry sectors, on topics that include productivity, global economic integration, offshoring, capital markets, health care, energy, demographics, and consumer demand. Our research is conducted by a group of full-time MGI fellows based in of fices in San Francisco, Washington, DC, London, and Shanghai. MGI project teams also include consultants drawn from McKinsey’s offices around the world and are supported by McKinsey’s network of industry and management experts and worldwide partners. In addition, MGI teams work with leading economists, including Nobel laureates and policy experts, who act as advisers to MGI projects. MGI’s research is funded by the par tners of McKinsey & Company and not commissioned by any business, government, or other institution. Further information about MGI and copies of MGI’s published reports can be found at www.mckinsey.com/mgi. Copyright © McKinsey & Company 2009 McKinsey Global Institute March 2009 Will US consumer debt reduction cripple the recovery? Martin N.
    [Show full text]
  • Global Debt Monitor Sharp Spike in Debt Ratios
    Global Debt Monitor Sharp spike in debt ratios July 16, 2020 Emre Tiftik, Director, Sustainability Research, [email protected] Khadija Mahmood, Associate Economist, [email protected] Editor: Sonja Gibbs, Managing Director and Head of Sustainable Finance, [email protected] • Pandemic-driven recessionary conditions pushed global debt-to-GDP to a new record of 331% in Q1, up from 320% in Q4 2019 • Debt in mature markets reached 392% of GDP (vs 380% in 2019). Canada, France and Norway saw the largest increases • EM debt surged to over 230% of GDP in Q1 2020 (vs 220% in 2019), largely driven by non-financial corporates in China • Defaults on the rise: the face value of defaulted non-financial corporate bonds jumped to a record $94bn in Q2 • Over 92% of outstanding gov’t debt is still investment grade (BBB or above)—but rising debt ratios will prompt concern • Total EM FX debt was broadly stable at $8.4T in Q1, suggesting sovereigns and corporates could still roll over FX liabilities • Refinancing risk: emerging markets will need to refinance $620 billion in FX debt (bonds and loans) through end of 2020 Global debt soared to a record high 331% of GDP amounting to some $4.6 trillion in Q2—vs a quarterly average ($258 trillion) in Q1 2020. With widespread recessionary of $2.8 trillion in 2019. conditions in Q1 amid the COVID-19 pandemic—particularly Debt in mature markets has topped 392% of GDP, up in emerging markets—the global debt-to-GDP ratio surged by by some 12 percentage points from 2019.
    [Show full text]
  • The Role of Housing and Mortgage Markets in the Financial Crisis
    The Role of Housing and Mortgage Markets in the Financial Crisis Manuel Adelino, Duke University, and NBER Antoinette Schoar, MIT, and NBER Felipe Severino, Dartmouth College June 2018 Abstract Ten years after the financial crisis there is widespread agreement that the boom in mortgage lending and its subsequent reversal were at the core of the Great Recession. We survey the existing evidence which suggests that inflated house price expectations across the economy played a central role in driving both demand and supply of mortgage credit before the crisis. The great misnomer of the 2008 crisis is that it was not a "subprime" crisis but rather a middle-class crisis. Inflated house price expectations led households across all income groups, especially the middle class, to increase their demand for housing and mortgage leverage. Similarly, banks lent against increasing collateral values and underestimated the risk of defaults. We highlight how these emerging facts have essential implications for policy. We thank Matt Richarson (referee) for insightful comments. All errors are our own. Ten years after the financial crisis of 2008 some of the drivers and implications of the crisis are starting to come into better focus. The majority of observers agrees that mortgage lending and housing markets were at the core of the recession. US housing markets experienced an unparalleled boom in house prices and a steep expansion in mortgage credit to individual households before 2007. Once house prices started to collapse, the drop in collateral values not only lead to increased defaults but also affected the stability of the financial markets. The ensuing dislocations in the financial sector led to a drying up of credit flows and other financial functions in the economy and ultimately a significant slowdown of economic activity, which cumulated in the great recession.
    [Show full text]
  • China's Debt Bubble and Demographic Stagnation Pose
    ISSUE BRIEF 08.13.20 China’s Debt Bubble and Demographic Stagnation Pose Major Risks to Global Oil Prices—and U.S. Shale Prospects Gabriel Collins, J.D., Baker Botts Fellow in Energy & Environmental Regulatory Affairs “The crisis takes a much longer time coming than you think, and then it happens much faster than you would have thought.” —Rudi Dornbusch1 China has become the global oil consumer global economy. Various analysts may of last resort—accounting for 63% of reasonably apply different weights to the global incremental liquids (i.e., “crude oil”) chicken-and-egg loop described above, demand growth in 2019.2 The oil markets but the virtually inescapable bottom-line now understandably focus on near-term conclusion remains: China’s rise has been pressure factors such as OPEC+ behavior indispensable in shaping the global oil and coronavirus-induced shutdowns.3 architecture and underpinning new capital But looking a few quarters further out, a flows and wealth creation, including in sustained slowdown in China’s oil demand Texas, where the author is based. growth is, from the risk perspective, a My calculations indicate that between lurking crocodile.4 If the croc bursts onto 2003 and 2014 (when oil prices first the riverbank, it could set in motion a crashed), China’s own oil demand grew complex chain of events that would likely by about 5.4 million barrels per day. But reset the global oil supply/demand picture, the combined oil demand growth in cost curve, and investment thesis in ways Africa, Central and South America, the deeply challenging to multiple oil exporters former Soviet Union, and the Middle East as well as U.S.
    [Show full text]
  • Stephen S Poloz: Canada's Economy and Household Debt
    Stephen S Poloz: Canada's economy and household debt - how big is the problem? Remarks by Mr Stephen S Poloz, Governor of the Bank of Canada, at the Yellowknife Chamber of Commerce, Yellowknife, Northwest Territories, 1 May 2018. * * * I would like to thank Jing Yang for her help with this speech. Introduction Shakespeare wrote, “Neither a borrower nor a lender be.” Well, that may have been reasonable advice back in Hamlet’s day, but it is hard to imagine a modern economy like ours functioning under that dictum. For most Canadians debt is a fact of life, at least at some point. Borrowing can help someone get a higher education, or buy a new car, or purchase a home. Simply put, debt is a tool that allows people to smooth out their spending throughout their life. The amount of debt held by Canadian households has been rising for about 30 years, not just in absolute terms but also relative to the size of the economy. At the end of last year, Canadian households owed just over $2 trillion. Mortgages make up almost three-quarters of this debt. While debt is indispensable for our modern way of life, it has been a growing preoccupation for the Bank of Canada for several years now. That is because high debt levels can make us vulnerable to negative events—individuals as well the entire economy. There are two ways to look at this. Traditionally, our focus has been on the vulnerability of Canada’s financial system arising from elevated indebtedness. This means analyzing how our banks would manage a serious economic recession with high unemployment and increasing debt defaults.
    [Show full text]
  • Household Debt and Government Debt in Canada • Di Matteo • I
    Contents Introduction / 1 Background—Understanding the Concern about Debt / 3 Overview—Household and Public Debt in Canada, 1990 to 2016 / 7 International Comparisons / 18 Micro Analysis—Household Debt and Net Worth / 26 Assessment—Should Canadians Be Worried? / 28 References / 31 About the Author / 35 Acknowledgments / 36 Publishing Information / 37 Supporting the Fraser Institute / 38 Purpose, Funding, and Independence / 38 About the Fraser Institute / 39 Editorial Advisory Board / 40 fraserinstitute.org Household Debt and Government Debt in Canada • Di Matteo • i Executive Summary Canadians are regularly inundated with news stories about policy concerns over house- hold debt. These concerns, however, can be seen to be overblown once we properly account for the other side of the balance sheet. Canadian households have taken on more debt over time but they have used this debt to finance assets—real estate, for example—that are appreciating over time, causing their net worth to grow, also to unprecedented levels. The same cannot be said for government debt. Concerns about household indebtedness focus on measures such as total household debt accumulated or the ratio of household debt to income. Based on these metrics, Canadian household debt levels are indeed near historic highs. By the end of last year, household debt reached over $2 trillion, up from $357 billion in 1990. The lion’s share of this debt— two thirds in fact—is for mortgages while the remaining third is split between consumer credit (29%) and other loans (5%). Over the same period, the total financial liabilities of the government sector grew from approximately $700 billion to $2.5 trillion while its net debt grew from over $400 billion in 1990 to reach nearly $970 billion in 2016.
    [Show full text]
  • Comments on "Rich Debt, Poor Debt: Assessing Household Indebtedness
    Comments on “Rich debt, poor debt: assessing household indebtedness and debt repayment capacity” Sock-Yong Phang1 Summary This paper assesses the system-wide impacts of Malaysia’s rising household debt. Malaysia’s household debt-to-GDP ratio (HDGR) increased from 76% in 2009 to 89% in 2016. This increase has raised concerns regarding the implications for household financial resilience and banking system stability. The paper uses a micro-level dataset that integrates income and debt to calculate financial margin (FM) and the probability of default (PD) for individuals at the baseline, and when subject to various shocks. This allows the estimation of loss to lenders in the event of default, and from there, the banking system’s debt-at-risk. The findings show that default is more likely for households with a debt service ratio of greater than 60%. For higher-income individuals, default is more likely at a debt service ratio of greater than 80%. After estimating potential losses for the banking sector, the authors conclude that it is sufficiently well capitalised to withstand default losses arising from unexpected macroeconomic and housing price shocks. International perspectives International comparisons of HDGR show a wide range of values.2 Malaysia’s HDGR of 89% is relatively high by international standards; it is higher than the HDGRs for Japan, Hong Kong SAR, Greece and Singapore, but just below that of Portugal, Spain and the United States – countries which have recently experienced financial crises. At the same time, the financial systems of the countries with some of the highest HDGRs, ie Denmark, Switzerland, Australia, and Canada, weathered the Global Financial Crisis well, while countries at the bottom of the range with low HDGRs are there because of less developed financial sectors.
    [Show full text]
  • Rising Thai Household Debt: Assessing Risks and Policy Implications
    SP/01/2004 สัมมนาวิชาการประจําป 2547 BOT Symposium 2004 ภาวะหนี้ครัวเรือนไทย: ความเสี่ยงและนัยเชิงนโยบาย Rising Thai Household Debt: Assessing Risks and Policy Implications นายยรรยง ไทยเจริญ นายเกียรติพงศ อริยปรัชญา และ น.ส. ฐิติมา ชูเชิด สายนโยบายการเงิน กันยายน 2547 บทสรุป ขอคิดเห็นที่ปรากฏในบทความนี้เปนความเห็นของผูเขียน ซึ่งไม จําเปนตองสอดคลองกับความเห็นของธนาคารแหงประเทศไทย การเพิ่มขึ้นของหนี้ครัวเรือนไทยเปนประเด็นที่ไดรับความสนใจอยางแพรหลายในปจจุบัน งานวิจัยนี้ไดประเมินความเสี่ยงที่เกิดขึ้นจากหนี้ภาคครัวเรือนและไดชี้ใหเห็นถึงนัยเชิงนโยบายที่สําคัญ โดย ใชขอมูลจากโครงการสํารวจภาวะเศรษฐกิจและสังคมของครัวเรือนโดยสํานักงานสถิติแหงชาติ และขอมูลจาก การสํารวจของธนาคารแหงประเทศไทย รวมถึงฐานขอมูลจากธนาคารพาณิชยตางๆ เพื่อใหการวิเคราะหถึง สาเหตุและการกระจายตัวของหนี้ครัวเรือนเปนไปโดยสมบูรณยิ่งขึ้น การศึกษาพบวา หนี้ภาคครัวเรือนในระดับปจจุบันนั้นยังไมกอใหเกิดปญหาตอเสถียรภาพของ ระบบสถาบันการเงินและเศรษฐกิจมหภาค อยางไรก็ดี ครัวเรือนบางกลุมโดยเฉพาะผูที่มีรายไดต่ํา มี การศึกษานอย มีความรูความเขาใจทางการเงินไมมาก หรือพึ่งพาแหลงเงินทุนนอกระบบเปนหลัก ไดแสดง ใหเห็นถึงสัญญาณของภาวะกดทางการเงินอันเกิดจากการมีภาระหนี้หนัก นอกจากนั้น ครัวเรือนบางกลุม อาจจะมีความเปราะบางจากการคาดการณอนาคตดานรายไดและทิศทางอัตราดอกเบี้ยดีเกินความเปนจริง รวมทั้งปจจัยเสี่ยงจากทัศนคติเกี่ยวกับการผิดนัดชําระหนี้และการคาดหวังความชวยเหลือจากรัฐบาลซึ่งอาจมี นัยตอเสถียรภาพของระบบสถาบันการเงินเฉพาะกิจและภาระผูกพันของภาครัฐไดในอนาคต บทความสรุป ดวยการเสนอแนวทางนโยบายเพื่อรองรับความเสี่ยงที่อาจเกิดจากระดับหนี้ภาคครัวเรือนที่สูงขึ้น รวมถึง มาตรการเพื่อเสริมสรางความเขมแข็งใหกับภาคครัวเรือนภายใตการเขาถึงแหลงทุนที่จะมีมากขึ้นในอนาคต
    [Show full text]
  • COVID-19: Household Debt During the Pandemic
    COVID-19: Household Debt During the Pandemic Updated May 6, 2021 Congressional Research Service https://crsreports.congress.gov R46578 SUMMARY R46578 COVID-19: Household Debt During the May 6, 2021 Pandemic Cheryl R. Cooper, The COVID-19 pandemic has had a large and persistent economic impact across the United Coordinator States. Fear of infection, social distancing, and stay-at-home orders prompted business closures Analyst in Financial and a severe decline in demand for travel, accommodations, restaurants, and entertainment, Economics among other industries. This led to a significant reduction in employment and a loss of income in many U.S. households. Unemployment rose rapidly to a peak at 14.7% in April 2020 and has Maura Mullins since fallen to 6.0% in March 2021. Consequently, many Americans have lost income and faced Senior Research Librarian financial hardship. Survey results suggest that since March 2020, about half of all U.S. adults live in a household that has lost some employment income. Lida R. Weinstock During 2020, different types of consumer debt—consisting of mortgages, credit cards, auto loans, Analyst in Macroeconomic and student loans—have exhibited different patterns during the COVID-19 pandemic. Notably, Policy credit card balances declined sharply in the second quarter by about $76 billion, the largest quarterly decline on record. Mortgage debt increased, and other household debt remained relatively flat. In addition, during 2020, the percentage of delinquent loans declined in most consumer debt markets. This pattern differs greatly from that of past recessions, such as the 2007-2009 Great Recession. Some of this decline is due to consumers entering into loan forbearance agreements when they are having trouble repaying their loans.
    [Show full text]