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High Frequency Monitoring Bulletin June 2018

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High Frequency Monitoring Bulletin June 2018 Bulletin #13 • June 2018 www.zrbf.co.zw The purpose of the ZRBF High Frequency Monitoring Bulletin is avail real IN THIS REPORT time data and information on identified and agreed trigger indicators for the Overall Results and Implications 2 activation of the crisis modifier, performance monitoring, programming and Status Update on Macro-Trigger Indicators 5 other decisions for the overall ZRBF adaptive programme. ZRBF identified a set Vegetation Condition Index 5 of indicators to monitor these shocks: drought, floods, crop pests and diseases, Real-time water levels in major rivers 6 animal pests and diseases, waterborne diseases, health, as well as crop and animal prices. Status Update on Micro-Trigger Indicators 7 Summary of Broad Classification: Micro Trigger Information presented in this bulletin is readily available in the HFM Online Indicators 7 Database, accessible using this url Detailed Micro Trigger Indicators Update 8 https://197.155.231.242/undp/ZRBF/HFMS/index.php National Media Monitoring for Early-Warning Signals 12 The bulletin contains official information for the month of April 2018 collected from various sources by ZRBF partners and analysed by ZRBF PMU. The High Annex 1: Flood monitoring thresholds for water level in selected rivers 13 Frequency Monitoring Bulletin is a product of collaboration between the ZRBF Partners and other government agencies. For questions and comments regarding this bulletin, kindly get in touch with Alfios [email protected] ( ); Vhusomuzi Sithole ([email protected]) or Rufael Fassil (rufael. [email protected]). UNDP Zimbabwe, ZRBF Programme Management Unit Arundel Office Park, Block 7, Norfolk Rd, Mt. Pleasant, Harare, Zimbabwe, Phone: +263 4 338836-44 Page 2 | High Frequency Monitoring Report Bulletin #13 | June 2018 Overall Results and Implications Summary Classification Key Highlights • High Frequency Monitoring (HFM) indicators show a slight change from last month’s situation where 9 out of 17 districts were in Alert. This month, the overall classification for 8 out of 18 districts were rated “Alert”. • The following indicators were rated “Emergency” during the reporting month of May and mitigation actions should be taken by all partners: 1. Reported cases of common diarrhoea in Chiredzi. 2. Reported cases of FMD in Insiza and Lupane Table 1 below summarises these trends in the overall classification of all 18 districts over the last 10 months. Table 1: Overall Classification of the 18 districts Bubi Binga Nkayi Insiza Mbire Mudzi Kariba Month Lupane Nyanga Mutoko Matobo Chiredzi Umguza Mwenezi Beitbridge Zvishavane Mberengwa Umzingwane Page 3 May-18 Normal Alert Normal Normal Normal Alert Alert Normal Normal Alert Alert Alert Normal Alert Normal Alert Normal Normal Apr-18 Alert Normal Alert Alert Normal Normal Normal Alert Normal Alert Alert Alert Normal Alert Alert Alert Normal Normal | High Frequency MonitoringReport High Frequency No Mar-18 Alert Normal Normal Alert Normal Normal Normal Normal Normal Alert Alert Normal Normal Normal Alert Normal Normal data Feb-18 Alert Normal Normal Alert Normal Alert Alert Normal Alert Alert Normal Normal Normal Alert Alert Alert Normal Alert Jan-18 Alert Alert Alert Normal Alert Normal Alert Alert Alert Alert Normal Alert Alert Alert Dec-17 Alert Normal Alert Alert Alert Alert Normal Normal Normal Nov-17 Alert Normal Alert Alert Alert Alert Normal Normal Normal Bulletin #13|June2018 Oct-17 - Normal Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Normal Sep-17 Alert Normal Alert Alert Alert Alert Normal Alert Normal Aug-17 Normal Normal Normal Normal Alert Alert - Normal Normal Jul- 17 Normal Normal Normal Normal Normal Normal - Normal Normal Jun-17 Normal Normal Normal Normal Normal Normal - Normal Normal May-17 - Normal Normal Normal Normal Normal - - - Page 4 | High Frequency Monitoring Report Bulletin #13 | June 2018 Implications and Actions related to Resilience Programming • The rain season has ended in all districts of the country and the Meteorological Services Department has confirmed this through their 2017-2018 End of Season Report. Vegetation condition is therefore deteriorating across all districts. The following activities are proposed in preparation for the forth- coming dry months: 1. improve availability of stock feed through preposition of agro-dealers, 2. pen fattening and 3. processing of locally available material for stock feed should be planned to address this chal- lenge. • In response to the reported cases of Foot and Mouth Disease (FMD), intensive and widespread vac- cination efforts are required in the affected districts. • ZRBF partners (including project participants) should also start working on ways of improving access to water for livestock. Interventions such as drinking troughs may be established to reduce the waste of energy in trekking to water sources. • ZRBF-funded Crisis Modifier activities are continuing in a number of districts and these activities are assisting communities and households in coping with the negative effects of the January mid-season dry spell. Crisis modifier activities are being implemented in Binga, Chiredzi, Kariba, Mbire and Mwenezi. For example, in Kariba efforts are underway to maintain the cold chain for vaccinations as well as livestock management capacity building and ensuring timely response to livestock diseases. Page 5 | High Frequency Monitoring Report Bulletin #13 | June 2018 Status Update on Macro-Trigger Indicators Vegetation Condition Index Figure 1: Vegetation Condition Index for April 2018 The Vegetation Condition Index shows deteriorating veg- Table 2: VCI values for the 18 districts etation condition across all districts culminating in Alert District VCI value Crisis Modifier classification for all except Mwenezi (Normal) and Umzing- Beitbridge 0.75 Alert wane (Alarm). This is attributed to less or no rains received in May 2018. The detailed table below show the average Binga 0.72 Alert VCI values per district. Bubi 0.77 Alert Chiredzi 0.77 Alert Insiza 0.81 Alert Kariba 0.59 Alert Lupane 0.65 Alert Matobo 0.72 Alert Mberengwa 0.83 Alert Mbire 0.69 Alert Mudzi 0.69 Alert Mutoko 0.76 Alert Mwenezi 0.86 Normal Nkayi 0.77 Alert Nyanga 0.69 Alert Umguza 0.80 Alert Umzingwane 0.77 Alarm Zvishavane 0.81 Alert Page 6 | High Frequency Monitoring Report Bulletin #13 | June 2018 Real-time water levels in major rivers The second macro-indicator, real-time river flow, showed that all the river had normal flow rates indicat- ing low flooding risk. The classification is based on a scale determined in Annex 1. Table 2 show that there is no flooding risk in any of the selected districts. However, it is also worthy pointing out that the flow rate of 3620m3/s at the Victoria Falls station is decreasing from last month’s figure of 4070m3/s. Table 3: Average water levels along selected major rivers in Zimbabwe, March 2018 River Site Flow Crisis Modifier Category Zambezi Victoria Falls 3620m3/s Normal Odzi Odzi Gorge 6.72m3/s Normal Mazowe Mazowe Bridge 1.53m3/s Normal Manyame Chinhoyi Bridge No Data Musengezi Centenary 3.50m3/s Normal Musengezi Chidodo 20.9m3/s Normal Save Condo Dam 6.64m3/s Normal Runde Confluence with Tokwe 0.018m3/s Normal Page 7 | High Frequency Monitoring Report Bulletin #13 | June 2018 Status Update on Micro-Trigger Indicators Summary of Broad Classification: Micro Trigger Indicators The micro-indicator data from the 18 ZRBF districts reflect conditions in the four broad classes of indict- ors. Biophysical, production and access indicators were mostly in the Alert/Normal category maintaining the same categories from the past month. • Biophysical indicators were mostly in Alert category in 16 out of 18 districts, resulting from effect on pasture availability and state of water sources. • Production indicators were mostly in Alert category in 12 out of 18 districts, caused by high cases of water borne and livestock diseases. • Access indicators were mainly in the Alert category with 9 out 18 districts. Increased water livestock trekking distance and distances to water sources for households led to access indicators Alert cat- egorization. • Trade indicators were mostly in the normal category except for Mbire district which remains in Alert category from last month caused by the persistently low prices for cattle, sheep and goats. Table 3: Trigger Indicator summary for May 2018 District Biophysical Indicators Production Indicators Access Indicators Trade Indicators Beitbridge Alert Alert Alert Normal Binga Alert Alert Normal Normal Bubi Alert Normal Alert Normal Chiredzi Alert Alert Normal Normal Insiza Alert Normal Alert Normal Kariba Normal Alert Alert Normal Lupane Alert Normal Normal Normal Matobo Alert Alert Normal Normal Mberengwa Alert Alert Normal Normal Mbire Alert Alert Alert Alert Mudzi Alert Alert Alert Normal Mutoko Alert Alert Normal Normal Mwenezi Normal Normal Alert Normal Nkayi Alert Alert Alert Nyanga Alert Alert Normal Normal Umguza Alert Alert Alert Normal Umzingwane Alert Normal Normal Normal Zvishavane Alert Alert Normal Normal Page 8 | High Frequency Monitoring Report Bulletin #13 | June 2018 Detailed Micro Trigger Indicators Update Biophysical Trigger indicators Table 4: Biophysical trigger indicator summary for April 2018 Biophysical Indicators District Pastures Availability Rainfall State of Water Sources Beitbridge 3 19.5 4 Binga 2 0 4 Bubi 4 63.1 2 Chiredzi 3 30.16 3 Insiza 3 15 4 Kariba 4 0 4 Lupane 3 17 3 Matobo 3 0 3 Mberengwa 3 9.37 3 Mbire 3 13 2 Mudzi 3 0 3 Mutoko 3 0 4 Mwenezi 4 24.79 3 Nkayi 4 No data 2 Nyanga 4 0 3 Umguza 4 0 2 Umzingwane 2 0 4 Zvishavane 3 19.8 3 • Pasture availability was in Alert category in ten districts and in Alarm Category for two districts (Binga and Umzingwane). This resulted from the effect of mid-season dry spells. • Rainfall amount received was normal for all districts that submitted data. • State of water sources in 8 districts was in Alert stage and 4 districts were already in Alarm stage.
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