Bulletin #13 • June 2018 www.zrbf.co.zw

The purpose of the ZRBF High Frequency Monitoring Bulletin is avail real IN THIS REPORT time data and information on identified and agreed trigger indicators for the Overall Results and Implications 2 activation of the crisis modifier, performance monitoring, programming and Status Update on Macro-Trigger Indicators 5 other decisions for the overall ZRBF adaptive programme. ZRBF identified a set Vegetation Condition Index 5 of indicators to monitor these shocks: drought, floods, crop pests and diseases, Real-time water levels in major rivers 6 animal pests and diseases, waterborne diseases, health, as well as crop and animal prices. Status Update on Micro-Trigger Indicators 7 Summary of Broad Classification: Micro Trigger Information presented in this bulletin is readily available in the HFM Online Indicators 7 Database, accessible using this url Detailed Micro Trigger Indicators Update 8 https://197.155.231.242/undp/ZRBF/HFMS/index.php National Media Monitoring for Early-Warning Signals 12 The bulletin contains official information for the month of April 2018 collected from various sources by ZRBF partners and analysed by ZRBF PMU. The High Annex 1: Flood monitoring thresholds for water level in selected rivers 13 Frequency Monitoring Bulletin is a product of collaboration between the ZRBF Partners and other government agencies. For questions and comments regarding this bulletin, kindly get in touch with Alfios [email protected] ( ); Vhusomuzi Sithole ([email protected]) or Rufael Fassil (rufael. [email protected]).

UNDP , ZRBF Programme Management Unit Arundel Office Park, Block 7, Norfolk Rd, Mt. Pleasant, , Zimbabwe, Phone: +263 4 338836-44 Page 2 | High Frequency Monitoring Report Bulletin #13 | June 2018

Overall Results and Implications

Summary Classification

Key Highlights

• High Frequency Monitoring (HFM) indicators show a slight change from last month’s situation where 9 out of 17 districts were in Alert. This month, the overall classification for 8 out of 18 districts were rated “Alert”.

• The following indicators were rated “Emergency” during the reporting month of May and mitigation actions should be taken by all partners:

1. Reported cases of common diarrhoea in Chiredzi.

2. Reported cases of FMD in and Lupane

Page 3 | High Frequency Monitoring Report Bulletin #13 | June 2018

Alert Alert

Normal Normal Normal -

Alert

Normal Normal Normal Normal Normal Normal Normal Normal Normal Normal Umguza - No

data Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert

Normal Normal Normal Normal Normal Normal Nyanga

Alert Alert Alert

Normal Nkayi - - - -

Alert Alert Alert Alert

Normal Normal Normal Normal Normal Mwenezi

Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert

Normal Normal Normal Normal Normal Normal Normal

Alert Alert

Normal Normal Mudzi

Alert Alert Alert

Normal Mbire

Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert

Normal Normal Normal Mberengwa

Alert Alert

Normal Normal Normal Matobo

Alert Alert

Normal Normal Normal Lupane

Alert Alert

Normal Normal Normal

Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert

Normal Normal Normal Normal Normal Normal Insiza

Normal Normal Normal Normal Normal Chiredzi

Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert

Normal Normal Normal Normal Normal Binga

Alert Alert

Normal Normal Normal Normal Normal Normal Normal Normal Normal Normal Normal Bubi - -

Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert

Normal Normal Normal Normal Normal Normal

Alert Alert Alert

Normal Month Jul- 17 Jan-18 Jun-17 Oct-17 Apr-18 Feb-18 Sep-17 Dec-17 Aug-17 Nov-17 Mar-18 May-18 May-17 Table 1 below summarises these trends in the overall classification of all 18 districts over the last 10 months. over the last of all 18 districts classification in the overall summarises these trends 1 below Table of the 18 districts 1: Overall Classification Table Page 4 | High Frequency Monitoring Report Bulletin #13 | June 2018

Implications and Actions related to Resilience Programming

• The rain season has ended in all districts of the country and the Meteorological Services Department has confirmed this through their 2017-2018 End of Season Report. Vegetation condition is therefore deteriorating across all districts. The following activities are proposed in preparation for the forth- coming dry months:

1. improve availability of stock feed through preposition of agro-dealers,

2. pen fattening and

3. processing of locally available material for stock feed should be planned to address this chal- lenge.

• In response to the reported cases of Foot and Mouth Disease (FMD), intensive and widespread vac- cination efforts are required in the affected districts.

• ZRBF partners (including project participants) should also start working on ways of improving access to water for livestock. Interventions such as drinking troughs may be established to reduce the waste of energy in trekking to water sources.

• ZRBF-funded Crisis Modifier activities are continuing in a number of districts and these activities are assisting communities and households in coping with the negative effects of the January mid-season dry spell. Crisis modifier activities are being implemented in Binga, Chiredzi, Kariba, Mbire and Mwenezi. For example, in Kariba efforts are underway to maintain the cold chain for vaccinations as well as livestock management capacity building and ensuring timely response to livestock diseases. Page 5 | High Frequency Monitoring Report Bulletin #13 | June 2018

Status Update on Macro-Trigger Indicators Vegetation Condition Index

Figure 1: Vegetation Condition Index for April 2018

The Vegetation Condition Index shows deteriorating veg- Table 2: VCI values for the 18 districts etation condition across all districts culminating in Alert District VCI value Crisis Modifier classification for all except Mwenezi (Normal) and Umzing- Beitbridge 0.75 Alert wane (Alarm). This is attributed to less or no rains received in May 2018. The detailed table below show the average Binga 0.72 Alert VCI values per district. Bubi 0.77 Alert Chiredzi 0.77 Alert Insiza 0.81 Alert Kariba 0.59 Alert Lupane 0.65 Alert Matobo 0.72 Alert Mberengwa 0.83 Alert Mbire 0.69 Alert Mudzi 0.69 Alert Mutoko 0.76 Alert Mwenezi 0.86 Normal Nkayi 0.77 Alert Nyanga 0.69 Alert Umguza 0.80 Alert Umzingwane 0.77 Alarm Zvishavane 0.81 Alert Page 6 | High Frequency Monitoring Report Bulletin #13 | June 2018

Real-time water levels in major rivers

The second macro-indicator, real-time river flow, showed that all the river had normal flow rates indicat- ing low flooding risk. The classification is based on a scale determined in Annex 1. Table 2 show that there is no flooding risk in any of the selected districts. However, it is also worthy pointing out that the flow rate of 3620m3/s at the Victoria Falls station is decreasing from last month’s figure of 4070m3/s.

Table 3: Average water levels along selected major rivers in Zimbabwe, March 2018

River Site Flow Crisis Modifier Category Zambezi Victoria Falls 3620m3/s Normal Odzi Odzi Gorge 6.72m3/s Normal Mazowe Mazowe Bridge 1.53m3/s Normal Manyame Bridge No Data Musengezi Centenary 3.50m3/s Normal Musengezi Chidodo 20.9m3/s Normal Save Condo Dam 6.64m3/s Normal Runde Confluence with Tokwe 0.018m3/s Normal Page 7 | High Frequency Monitoring Report Bulletin #13 | June 2018

Status Update on Micro-Trigger Indicators Summary of Broad Classification: Micro Trigger Indicators

The micro-indicator data from the 18 ZRBF districts reflect conditions in the four broad classes of indict- ors. Biophysical, production and access indicators were mostly in the Alert/Normal category maintaining the same categories from the past month.

• Biophysical indicators were mostly in Alert category in 16 out of 18 districts, resulting from effect on pasture availability and state of water sources.

• Production indicators were mostly in Alert category in 12 out of 18 districts, caused by high cases of water borne and livestock diseases.

• Access indicators were mainly in the Alert category with 9 out 18 districts. Increased water livestock trekking distance and distances to water sources for households led to access indicators Alert cat- egorization.

• Trade indicators were mostly in the normal category except for Mbire district which remains in Alert category from last month caused by the persistently low prices for cattle, sheep and goats.

Table 3: Trigger Indicator summary for May 2018

District Biophysical Indicators Production Indicators Access Indicators Trade Indicators Beitbridge Alert Alert Alert Normal Binga Alert Alert Normal Normal Bubi Alert Normal Alert Normal Chiredzi Alert Alert Normal Normal Insiza Alert Normal Alert Normal Kariba Normal Alert Alert Normal Lupane Alert Normal Normal Normal Matobo Alert Alert Normal Normal Mberengwa Alert Alert Normal Normal Mbire Alert Alert Alert Alert Mudzi Alert Alert Alert Normal Mutoko Alert Alert Normal Normal Mwenezi Normal Normal Alert Normal Nkayi Alert Alert Alert Nyanga Alert Alert Normal Normal Umguza Alert Alert Alert Normal Umzingwane Alert Normal Normal Normal Zvishavane Alert Alert Normal Normal Page 8 | High Frequency Monitoring Report Bulletin #13 | June 2018

Detailed Micro Trigger Indicators Update

Biophysical Trigger indicators

Table 4: Biophysical trigger indicator summary for April 2018

Biophysical Indicators District Pastures Availability Rainfall State of Water Sources Beitbridge 3 19.5 4 Binga 2 0 4 Bubi 4 63.1 2 Chiredzi 3 30.16 3 Insiza 3 15 4 Kariba 4 0 4 Lupane 3 17 3 Matobo 3 0 3 Mberengwa 3 9.37 3 Mbire 3 13 2 Mudzi 3 0 3 Mutoko 3 0 4 Mwenezi 4 24.79 3 Nkayi 4 No data 2 Nyanga 4 0 3 Umguza 4 0 2 Umzingwane 2 0 4 Zvishavane 3 19.8 3

• Pasture availability was in Alert category in ten districts and in Alarm Category for two districts (Binga and Umzingwane). This resulted from the effect of mid-season dry spells.

• Rainfall amount received was normal for all districts that submitted data.

• State of water sources in 8 districts was in Alert stage and 4 districts were already in Alarm stage. Page 9 | High Frequency Monitoring Report Bulletin #13 | June 2018

Production Trigger indicators

Table 5: Production trigger indicator summary for May 2018

Production Indicators District Crops Pest Crop Livestock Body Number Reported Cases Reported Cases and Diseases Condition Condition Livestock of Livestock of Waterborne Outbreaks Poverty Diseases Diseases Deaths Beitbridge 3 No data 3 0 151 259 Binga No data No data 2 0 46 163 Bubi 3 3 3 0 172 44 Chiredzi 2 3 2 0 2 786 Insiza No data No data 3 0 12 60 Kariba 2 4 3 0 45 216 Lupane No data No data 3 3 180 153 Matobo No data No data 3 0 44 114 Mberengwa 2 3 2 0 279 265 Mbire 2 3 2 0 37 266 Mudzi 3 No data 2 0 46 280 Mutoko 3 No data 2 0 101 430 Mwenezi 3 3 2 0 0 182 Nkayi No data No data 3 0 9 152 Nyanga 3 No data 2 0 49 295 Umguza 3 3 2 0 3 222 Umzingwane 3 3 3 0 4 87 Zvishavane 2 4 3 0 57 270

• Crop pests and diseases were mostly in Normal category with only 4 districts in Alert as the rainfall season comes to an end. Areas affected by fall armyworm will need to prepare in the dry season to curb its effects,

• Fifteen districts out of 18 were in Alarm category for Waterborne diseases,

• High cases of water borne diseases were recorded in Chiredzi resulting in the Emergency category. Nine districts were in the Alarm category whilst 7 districts were in the Alert category.

• There were no Livestock Poverty Deaths recorded. Insiza and Lupane were in the Emergency cat- egory resulting from effect of Foot and Mouth disease. Five districts fell in the Alarm category these include Nyanga, Mutoko, Mberengwa, Kariba, Bubi and Beitbridge. Page 10 | High Frequency Monitoring Report Bulletin #13 | June 2018

Access Trigger Indicators

Table 6: Access trigger indicator summary for April 2018

Access Indicators District Distances to Water Number of Meals School Attendance Water for Livestock Sources for Households Trekking Distance Beitbridge 1 3 3 4 Binga 1 3 No data 1 Bubi 1.5 2 3 3 Chiredzi 0.96 3 3 1.24 Insiza 1 2 4 2 Kariba 2.5 3 4 5 Lupane 1 3 4 3 Matobo 3 3 4 1 Mberengwa 1.42 3 4 1.58 Mbire 2 3 3 2 Mudzi 1.6 2 4 2.3 Mutoko 1.4 3 4 2.3 Mwenezi 1.04 3 3 1.36 Nkayi 2 No data 4 3 Nyanga 1 2 4 1 Umguza 2.5 2 4 5 Umzingwane 0.5 3 4 1.5 Zvishavane 1.32 3 4 1.55 • With the end of wet season distance to water sources was in Alert Category in 9 districts,

• Eight out of 18 districts were in Alert category on water for livestock trekking distance whilst two were already in Alert in Kariba and Umguza,

• School attendance after a month’s break was mostly normal except in 5 districts (Beitbridge, Bubi, Chiredzi, Mbire and Mwenezi,

• Five districts were in Alert which an average of two meals per day. Page 11 | High Frequency Monitoring Report Bulletin #13 | June 2018

Trade Trigger Indicators

Table 7: Trade trigger indicator summary for May 2018

Trade Indicators District Cattle Price Goat Price Indigenous Maize Pearl Mil- Rapoko Sheep Sorghum Chicken Price let Price Price Price Price Price Beitbridge 350 35 5 6 7 No data 40 7 Binga 350 25 5 6 5 No data 30 5 Bubi 450 40 6 7 8 No data 50 8 Chiredzi 305.88 29.29 4.82 5.06 5.47 7.2 42.06 4.53 Insiza 500 50 5 6 10 10 70 8 Kariba 400 25 4 4 No data No data 35 No data Lupane 400 50 5 5 5 5 50 5 Matobo 400 50 5 10 10 12 60 10 Mberengwa 400 40 5 5 6 10 60 5 Mbire 250 20 4 4 5 No data 35 4 Mudzi 290 31.4 5 6 8.86 14 52 6 Mutoko 300 30 5 5 8.3 12 50 7 Mwenezi 370.83 30.42 5 5.25 4.25 10.33 51.67 4.17 Nkayi No data No data No data No data No data No data No data No data Nyanga 350 25 7 6 7 20 60 7 Umguza 450 50 6 5 7 7 60 6 Umzingwane 500 50 7 5 9 9 80 8 Zvishavane 400 40 5 5 6 6 60 6 • Cattle prices were mostly normal except for Mbire and Mudzi with an average of $250 and $290 per beast respectively,

• Goat prices were mainly in the normal category except in 5 districts namely Nyanga, Mbire, Kariba, Chiredzi and Binga falling in Alert category. Sheep prices remained in Alert category in Mbire and Binga. Indigenous chickens were in normal category,

• Prices for maize, sorghum, pearl millet were in the Normal category. Rapoko prices were mostly in Alert stage in 2 districts showing an improvement from last month with 7 districts. Three districts were in Alarm category for Rapoko. Page 12 | High Frequency Monitoring Report Bulletin #13 | June 2018

National Media Monitoring for Early-Warning Signals

• Nutrition key to national development https://reliefweb.int/report/zimbabwe/nutrition-key-national-development

• Agric partnerships key to food security: President https://www.herald.co.zw/agric-partnerships-key-to-food-security-president/

• Reviving Commercial Beef Production with Smallholders in Zimbabwe https://263chat.com/reviving-commercial-beef-production-with-smallholders-in-zimbabwe/

• Boost for banana farmers https://www.thezimbabwedaily.com/news/221243-boost-for-banana-farmers.html

• Bread basket status for Zimbabwe: Financial inclusion the way to go https://www.newsday.co.zw/2018/05/bread-basket-status-for-zim-financial-inclusion-the-way- to-go/

• Training for wheat farmers begins https://www.herald.co.zw/training-for-wheat-farmers-begins/

• Zimbabwe: Seed Co Invests in Growing Farmer Yields http://allafrica.com/stories/201805180180.html

• Zimbabwe: Poultry Industry on High Alert http://allafrica.com/stories/201805180165.html

• Partnerships in agriculture key to transforming industry https://www.thezimbabwedaily.com/local-news/217216-partnerships-in-agric-key-to-trans- forming-industry.html

• Foundation seed for small grains on the cards http://www.zbc.co.zw/foundation-seed-for-small-grains-on-the-cards/ Page 13 | High Frequency Monitoring Report Bulletin #13 | June 2018

Annex 1: Flood monitoring thresholds for water level in selected rivers

Table 4: River water flow categorisation

Station River Site Province Maximum Unit Normal Alert Trigger 1 Alarm Emergency number flow/level Trigger 3 Trigger 2 A38 Gwayi Dahlia Mat North 147 m3/s <66.15 66.15 88.2 117.6 B35 Limpopo Beit Bridge Mat South 6 m3/s <2.7 2.7 3.6 4.8 C109 Musengezi Chidodo Mash 7.2 m3/s <3.24 3.24 4.32 5.76 Central C59 Sanyati Copper Midlands 2320 m3/s <1044 1044 1392 1856 Queen C61 Manyame Chinhoyi Mash West 16.5 m3/s <7.425 7.425 9.9 13.2 Bridge C68 Musengezi Centenary Mash 80.7 m3/s <36.315 36.315 48.42 64.56 Central D75 Mazowe Mazowe Mash 577 m3/s <259.65 259.65 346.2 461.6 Bridge Central E130 Odzi Odzi Gorge Manicaland 383 m3/s <172.35 172.35 229.8 306.4 E21 Save Condo Dam Manicaland 2853 m3/s <1283.85 1283.85 1711.8 2282.4 E74 Runde Confluence 2021 m3/s <909.45 909.45 1212.6 1616.8 with Tokwe ZGP25 Zambezi Victoria Mat North 9352 m3/s <4208.4 4208.4 5611.2 7481.6 Falls Crisis modifier range < 45% 45.1%