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Thesis Sci 2020 Stander Johan.Pdf University of Cape Town “Deriving a policy document towards an Early Warning System for Estuaries in South Africa: Case study Great Brak Estuary, Eden District, Southern Cape” Johan Stander Supervised by: Professor Isabelle Ansorge Head of Oceanography Department, University of Cape Town Associate Professor Juliet Hermes Manager, SAEON Egagasini node Associate Professor, Oceanography Department, University of Cape Town A thesis presented for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy in Oceanography University ofUniversity Cape Town of Cape Town June 2020 1 The copyright of this thesis vests in the author. No quotation from it or information derived from it is to be published without full acknowledgement of the source. The thesis is to be used for private study or non- commercial research purposes only. Published by the University of Cape Town (UCT) in terms of the non-exclusive license granted to UCT by the author. University of Cape Town Abstract South Africa’s estuaries and their surrounding communities are becoming increasingly vulnerable to storm surges and accompanied estuary flooding. These events are largely due to increasing severity of storm surges combined with growing housing and commercial developments. A particularly severe weather event in 2007/2008 highlighted the pressing need to understand the processes involved and the urgency to develop proactive response and management actions to mitigate the effects of future storm events on these coastal areas. Scientific research on estuarine flooding is limited not only for South Africa but within the international community as well and only recently has received committed attention from policy makers. It is clear that our current knowledge of South African estuary flooding events remains rudimentary; while necessary action to mitigate such events are poorly understood and planned. The aim of this PhD thesis is to devise and implement an Estuary Early Warning – Emergency Preparedness and Response Guide for stakeholders and government policymakers. This guide will target South Africa’s coastal region by analysing past information on storm surges and estuary flooding, particularly in the low-lying southern coast region of the Western Cape, South Africa. The key objective of this thesis is to assess the best processes for the issuing of estuary alerts and to better standardise them so that the response remains in line with multi-hazard early warning standard procedures and practices within South Africa. A further aim is to provide a comprehensive national guideline on how best to effectively disseminate and communicate such information and to establish an Estuary Early Warning (EEW) – Emergency Preparedness and Response Guide (EPRG), which forms part of the South African Multi-Hazard Early Warning System (MHEWS). It is critical that this EEW meets general principles accepted internationally for an effective Early Warning System. This thesis addresses the following key elements namely: (1) Risk identification, (2) Key drivers and contributions to estuary flooding, (3) Monitoring and alert early warning system, (4) Alert dissemination and (5) Response actions. Such pioneering work is an essential tool to translate science into policy, a crossover field, which remains poorly implemented. 2 Plagiarism Declaration The thesis is my own research work. Wherever contributions from others are involved, every effort has been made to indicate this clearly, with due reference to the literature. Aside from guidance from my supervisors, I have received no assistance except as acknowledged. I have not allowed, and will not allow, anyone to copy the contents of this thesis with the intention of passing it off as their own work. It should be noted that the initial process was led by the author, an employee of the South African Weather Service (SAWS) in conjunction with Disaster Management (DM), Department of Environmental Affairs (DEA) Branch Oceans and Coasts (O&C), Cape Nature, Department of Water and Sanitation (DWS), Council for Scientific and Industrial Research (CSIR), various Municipalities and the South African National Parks Board (SANParks), which involved a three-day estuary workshop in George, Western Cape after the successful development and ultimate draft implementation of the early warning storm surge guide in 2012. The aim was to bring all interested parties together to share knowledge and best practice in predicting and managing estuary flood events along the coast, as well as to consider the advantages and disadvantages of establishing a Guide for South Africa. Follow-up workshops were held, led by the author, and a guidance framework was developed. The Guide was developed to function within the various sets of legislative frameworks pertaining to estuary management, however the guide could not be enforced as it was not scientifically tested through case studies. 3 Table of Contents Abstract ................................................................................................................................ 2 Plagiarism Declaration .......................................................................................................... 3 Table of Contents .................................................................................................................. 4 Table of Figures ................................................................................................................... 10 Table of Tables .................................................................................................................... 16 1. Literature review .......................................................................................................... 17 1.1 Rio de la Plata, Argentina as a case study integrating satellite altimetry and real-time tide gauge data for the prediction of storm surges ....................................................................18 1.2 Thames Estuary, case study of modelling storm surge flooding of build-up areas........20 1.3 Coastal modelling for flood defence – case study the Netherlands ...............................21 1.4 Estuarine flooding and managed retreat .......................................................................23 1.5 Investigating River-Surge interaction in idealised estuaries ..........................................24 2. Introduction ................................................................................................................. 28 2.1 Understanding the catchment to coast and water flow of estuaries ............................30 2.2 Impacts of floods on estuaries – Secondary effects .......................................................32 2.3 Changing climate and land use planning .......................................................................33 2.4 Proactive risk identification and subsequent risk reduction and mitigation ..................34 2.5 The need for estuary early warning guideline for policymakers ....................................34 3. Data and methodology ................................................................................................. 37 3.1 Key drivers of estuary flooding .......................................................................................37 3.1.1 Meteorological drivers.............................................................................................37 3.1.2 Oceanographic .........................................................................................................38 3.2 Factors contributing to forecasting estuary flooding .....................................................38 3.2.1 Predicted rainfall intensity within the catchment region .......................................38 3.2.2 Land use and bathymetry ........................................................................................38 4 3.2.3 Estuary water level and beach berm height ............................................................39 3.2.4 Sea-level rise ............................................................................................................39 3.2.5 Waves and storm surges ..........................................................................................40 3.2.6 Beach berms ............................................................................................................41 3.2.7 Numerical model information .................................................................................41 4. Results 1 - Why the need for an estuary early warning guide? – Case study of the Great Brak estuary in the Eden district .......................................................................................... 43 4.1 Rainfall conditions over the Eden region ........................................................................43 4.2 Description of the events leading up to significant flood events in Eden estuaries – Case study the Great Brak estuary................................................................................................46 4.2.1 Flooding event June 2011 ........................................................................................48 4.2.2 Flooding event September 2008 .............................................................................52 4.2.3 Flooding event August 2006 ....................................................................................54 4.2.4 Flooding event May 2002 ........................................................................................55 4.2.5 Flooding event March 2003 .....................................................................................55
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