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Bangkok Retail Bangkok Retail One Million Sq M of New Retail Supply Will Enter the Market by 2022

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Bangkok Retail Bangkok Retail One Million Sq M of New Retail Supply Will Enter the Market by 2022 Asian Cities Report – 2H 2019 REPORT Savills Research Bangkok Retail Bangkok Retail One million sq m of new retail supply will enter the market by 2022 ECONOMIC OVERVIEW GRAPH 1: Prime Retail Supply Distribution By Grade, Bangkok is well known as one of the most visited cities globally with more than 2H/2019 22 million international overnight visitors in 2018 and a total of 38 million High-end Middle-up Middle international tourist arrivals and tourism is a key contributor to Bangkok’s 1,500 economy. Thailand’s overall GDP in Q2/2019 grew by 2.3%, which decelerated from 2.8% in the previous quarter, however there were positive signs from the 1,250 Consumer Confi dence Index, which increased for the fi rst time in 6 months, reaching 46.3 in October from 46.0 in September 2019. 1,000 The strength of the Thai Baht, which has seen an increase of more than 6% against the dollar YTD, has been drawing a lot of interest from FOREX 750 investors, although this has been having a negative impact on Thailand’s exports and tourism. Going forward it is unknown exactly what measures the '000 SQM government and the Bank of Thailand (BOT) will take in order to reduce the 500 currency pressure. There are a number of infrastructure development projects underway, 250 which are intended to accelerate the country’s economic growth; the most notable being the expansion of Bangkok’s primary international airport and the 0 extensive expansion of Bangkok’s rail system, with over 400 kilometres of new CBD Downtown Midtown Suburban track under planning/construction. Source Savills Research & Consultancy SUPPLY GRAPH 2: Prime Retail Supply Forecast, 2017 to Bangkok prime retail reached three million sq m in 2H/2019, distributed over 2024F CBD, downtown, midtown and suburban areas. The CBD and downtown areas Total Supply New Supply predominantly comprise high-end retail, while midtown and suburban comprise 5,000 mostly the middle-up market segment. 4,500 In 2H/2019, there were two completed prime projects. Samyan Mitrtown mall opened in downtown, comprising 36,000 sq m of retail space as part of the mixed- 4,000 use development. The mall features direct access from Samyan MRT station and 3,500 is well tailored to the needs of the local offi ce workers and university students, including 5,000 sq m of 24/7 retail space. In the suburban area, Central Village, 3,000 of 40,000 sq m opened and is Bangkok’s fi rst international luxury outlet mall, it’s 2,500 located within a 10 minute drive of Suvarnabhumi International Airport. Q3 featured the one-year anniversary of ICONSIAM, the riverside luxury mall '000 SQM 2,000 with a gross fl oor area of 525,0000 sq m. From launch it had high occupancy and 1,500 to date maintains 98% occupancy; indicating the level of real demand for space 1,000 focused on the luxury segment of the Bangkok market. 500 OCCUPANCY AND RENTS 0 The occupancy level for prime CBD and downtown rose to a combined 97%, 2017 2018 2019 2020F 2021F 2022F 2023F 2024F from 95% in the previous quarter; whilst rental rates have largely remained Source Savills Research & Consultancy GRAPH 3: Prime CBD and Downtown Retail Supply, TABLE 1: Bangkok Statistics Demand and Occupancy, Q1/2017 to Q3/2019 Supply (LHS) Demand (LHS) Average Occupancy (RHS) POPULATION 10,350,204 3,500 100% 99% 3,000 POPULATION GROWTH PER ANNUM -0.75% 98% (2010-2019) 2,500 97% OCCUPANCY 96% NO. OF HOUSEHOLD SIZE (2019) 3.19 2,000 95% 1,500 94% UNEMPLOYMENT RATE (Q3/2019) 1.15% '000 SQM 1,000 93% 92% GDP GROWTH (Q1-Q2/2019) 2.30% 500 91% 0 90% CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX 46.3 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 (OCTOBER 2019) 2017 2018 2019 Source Savills Research & Consultancy Source UN, Bank of Thailand, Ministry of Commerce, National Statistical Offi ce savills.co.th/research Bangkok Retail stable at THB2,550 and THB1,705, respectively. We observe that ‘share of gross GRAPH 4: Major Retail Trading Indices, 2008 to 2018 operating profi t’ continues to be a key method of rental collection for the large shopping malls, though this often varies according to the attractiveness of the tenant and the format of the shopping mall. Retail Sales Index The Market Bangkok on Ratchadamri Road has the lowest rate of occupancy Retail Sale of Clothing Specialized Stores Department Store of any of the prime retail malls in CBD and downtown areas, with an occupancy 350 rate of just 82%. This low occupancy is due to several factors including its positioning and the strong competition within the surrounding area. However, 300 with the Japanese retailer Don Don Donki having signed to open their second 250 supermarket in The Market in Q1/2020, there is a chance for the mall’s overall performance to improve on the back of the extra footfall. 200 LATEST TRENDS 150 F&B is becoming increasingly important for mall operators in Bangkok as 100 they adjust their tenant mix to better suit the changing demands within retail, BASE YEARBASE 2000 = 100 especially focusing on the retail experience. We have seen thorough renovations 50 of shopping malls, such as Central World, wherein entire fl oors have been reassigned to food and beverage, which has helped elevate the occupancy rate of 0 the mall to over 95%. We anticipate that other malls will follow suit and increase the variety and amount of F&B in order to increase occupancy and foot traffi c. For the fi rst time we will witness competition between luxury outlet malls Source Bank of Thailand in the suburban area, between the recently opened Central Village and the under construction Siam Premium Outlet, a JV between Siam Piwat and Simon The outlook for CBD and downtown retail remains positive, with limited new supply and high occupancy rates across the majority of malls. Property Group comprising 50,000 sq m and scheduled for completion in GRAPH 5: Thailand Tourist Arrivals, 2009 to 2023F 1H/2020. Going forward we may see other developers try to enter the suburban luxury outlet mall market, though it is too early to judge whether this format 80,000 will be successful and whether the market can absorb additional space. 70,000 OUTLOOK Around one million sq m of new supply will enter the retail market from 2020 60,000 to 2022, of which the Bangkok Mall in Bangna, accounts for more than 800,000 50,000 sq m, while EmSphere, located in Phrom Phong, accounts for approximately 200,000 sq m. Both malls focus on their entertainment facilities and have 40,000 concert halls of 16,000 and 6,000 seat capacity, respectively. The Bangkok Mall will focus on the middle-up market whilst EmSphere will be high-end. The 30,000 intention of this entertainment space is to increase the length of visits and to better target the night-time economy, by off ering more suitable activities such NO. OF ARRIVALS (000S) 20,000 as concerts and festivals. Occupancy rates are anticipated to remain high for CBD and downtown 10,000 malls, as we note that the high-end/luxury malls are in demand, and this area 0 accounts for the majority of this grade. Middle-up and middle grades may fair 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019F 2021F 2023F less well due to the large amount of new stock entering, specifi cally Bangkok Source Ministry of Sports & Tourism Mall. We expect that rental rates will on average increase at a modest rate, likely in-line or slightly below market growth, which is expected to be around 3% per annum. Savills Thailand 26/F Abdulrahim Place 990 Rama IV Road, Silom Bangrak, Bangkok 10500 Thailand +66 2636 0300.
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