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Bangkok Q4 2018 Large Supply of Super-Luxury Condominiums in Q4 2018

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Bangkok Q4 2018 Large Supply of Super-Luxury Condominiums in Q4 2018 Real Estate Times RESEARCH March 2019 Bangkok Q4 2018 Large supply of super-luxury condominiums in Q4 2018 www.etcthailand.co.th Edmund Tie & Company Research www.etcsea.com 2018 Q4 snapshot The Consumer Price Index (CPI) in Q3 2018 shrunk by 0.04 per cent year-on-year (y-o-y), whereas the policy rate was once again left unaltered at 1.5 per cent. According to the Office of the National Economic and Social Development Board (NESDB), gross domestic product (GDP) in Q3 2018 rose by 3.3 per cent, down slightly compared to the 4.6 per cent in Q2 2018. The largest investment deal recorded in Q4 Investment sales reached 2018 was the acquisition of 4,300 rai site at Bangna-Trad Road KM.32 by TRA Land Development Co., Ltd, with the total THB16.1bn bidding value of THB8.90bn. in Q4 2018. Office Retail Average asking rents for prime offices in the In the downtown area, rents remained CBD remained unchanged at THB1,040 unchanged at THB2,595 psm per month, per square metre (psm)1 per month in Q4. easing by 0.38 per cent on a y-o-y basis. Office supply in the CBD totalled to 4.59m Average retail rents in the midtown area square metres (sq m) in Q4 2018, increasing remained at THB1,610 psm per month from 4.51m sq m in Q4 2017 at 1.9 per cent. in Q4 2018, declining by 1.26 per cent on a y-o-y basis. Residential The average take-up rate of newly launched condominium projects in the CBD reached 44.0 per cent in Q4 2018; higher than the performance of 31.0 per cent in Q3 2018. The total new condominium supply in the CBD in Q4 2018 was 2,461 units, a 50.4 per cent increase from the previous quarter of 1,636 units. Overall, the total new supply of 5,572 units in 2018 was 34.0 per cent lower than in 2017. The average unit selling price stayed flat at THB330,447 psm in Q4 2018. 1 Based on revised sample as of October 2018 EDMUND TIE & COMPANY RESEARCH 1 The economy Key highlights • Inflation is forecasted in the range of 1.5 per In Q3 2018, the economy expanded cent to 2.0 per cent in 2018. by 3.3 per cent y-o-y, compared to a • The average growth rate of the economy in 2018 is forecasted to be 4.2 per cent. 4.3 per cent expansion in the same • The policy rate in 2018 remains unchanged at period of 2017, with the slowing of 1.5 per cent. external demand. • GDP expanded by 3.3 per cent y-o-y in Q3 2018. • The CPI in Q3 2018 decreased by 0.04 per cent y-o-y. Outlook Market commentary GDP is projected to grow at 4.0 to 4.3 per cent GDP in Q3 2018 increased by 3.3 per cent, in 2019. Among factors that have potentially compared to the 4.6 per cent rise in Q2 2018, positive effects on investors’ confidence, is mainly driven by domestic demand, while the election in February 2019. The export external demand slowed down. For production, and tourism industries will continue to be the both agricultural and non-agricultural sectors country’s key economic drivers. Exports grew increased at a slower rate. A slowdown of by 11.0 per cent in H1 2018, which was the agricultural production was mainly from main highest growth in the past seven years. With crops. In addition, the non-agricultural sector Bangkok named as “the most popular city expanded at a slower rate, mainly attributed for international tourists” by MasterCard, the to the slowdown of both manufacturing and number of foreign tourists increased by 40.0 per tourist-related services sector in response to a cent between 2014 to 2017 from 25m to 35m. deceleration of inbound tourists. The policy rate remained unchanged at 1.5 per The CPI in Q3 2018 shrunk by 0.04 per cent y-o-y, cent per annum, based on the assessment that compared to an increase of 0.03 per cent in Q2 the current policy rate is at an appropriate level 2018 (Figure 2). In light of this, the central bank to support economic growth and maintain an has encouraged economic growth by keeping inflation rate within the target range. monetary policy stable. Figure 1: GDP growth Figure 2: Change in CPI (y-o-y) 6% 5% 4% 4% 3% 2% 2% 1% 0% 0% -1% Q3 2016 Q4 2016 Q1 2017 Q2 2017 Q3 2017 Q4 2017 Q1 2018 Q2 2018 Q3 2018 -2% Q3 2016 Q4 2016 Q1 2017 Q2 2017 Q3 2017 Q4 2017 Q1 2018 Q2 2018 Q3 2018 Source: Office of the National Economic and Source: Bank of Thailand, Social Development Board (NESDB), Edmund Tie & Edmund Tie & Company Research Company Research EDMUND TIE & COMPANY RESEARCH 2 Investment sales Key highlights • Investment sales in Q4 2018 accounted for Thailand remains a prime destination THB16.1bn, increasing from THB10.3bn in Q3 for foreign direct investment as its 2018. With a total investment of THB54.7bn in 2018, the amount dropped by 62.0 per cent central location in the region affords compared to THB142.9bn in 2017. good connectivity to Cambodia, Laos, • The largest investment deal in Q4 2018 was Myanmar and Malaysia. the acquisition of 4,300 rai site by TRA Land Development Co., Ltd. for THB8.9bn. • The investment market was once again In addition, Singha Estate PLC will invest dominated by domestic investors, accounting THB3.7bn to develop a commercial property for all THB16.1bn worth of transactions. project on a leasehold 7 rai plot on Vibhavadi • Thailand remains a prime destination for Rangsit Road to capitalise on high office demand foreign direct investment as its central location but limited supply at the location. The project, in the region affords good connectivity to Oasis, offers 53,000 sq m of commercial space Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar and Malaysia. including office and retail. Market commentary Outlook Thailand’s investment market in Q4 was active as We anticipate that domestic investors will the total investment volume grew substantially continue to seek property exposure. Leading quarter-on-quarter (q-o-q). The total investment property developers will continue to acquire land value in Q4 accounted for THB16.1bn, up in prime and secondary locations in Bangkok’s from THB10.3bn in Q3 2018 (Figure 3). The CBD to develop residential properties, office transactions in Q4 were once again dominated buildings and retail malls. by domestic investors. The purchasers consist Figure 3: Investment sales (THBm) of a mix of companies, which are in both real estate and non-real estate sectors. 140,000 120,000 The largest deal in Q4 was transacted by TRA 100,000 Land Development Co., Ltd – a joint venture 80,000 company by TICON (a leading industrial developer), Rojana Industrial Park Public 60,000 Company Limited and Asia Industrial Estate 40,000 Co., Ltd. The company acquired a 4,300 rai 20,000 site at Bangna Trad Road KM.32, which has the 0 potential for a large scale integrated industrial 2 2016 4 2018 development. The total bidding amount was 2015 Q4 2016 Q1 Q 2016 Q3 2016 Q4 2017 Q1 2017 Q2 2017 Q3 2017 Q4 2018 Q1 2018 Q2 2018 Q3 Q close to THB8.9bn. Source: Edmund Tie & Company Research EDMUND TIE & COMPANY RESEARCH 3 Office Key highlights Market commentary • In Q4 2018, office supply in the CBD remains In Q4 2018, there was only one new office unchanged since there was no new supply completion, Singha Complex, in Bangkok’s during the quarter. Total office supply in 2018 CBD. Singha Complex is a premium mixed- showed a small increase of 1.9 per cent to 4.59m use development located at the corner of the sq m compared to 4.51m sq m in Q4 2017. bustling Asoke-Phetchburi intersection. It offers • Average asking rents of prime CBD offices in a 42-storey Grade A office building, a lifestyle Q4 remained unchanged at THB1,040 psm retail mall as well as a luxury condominium. per month. Its office tower is expected to attract premium • Prime office occupancy in the CBD increased tenants as it offers column-free spaces, core- slightly from 92.3 per cent in Q3 2018 to 92.7 to-window depth of 16 metres and a large floor per cent in Q4 2018. plate of up to 2,200 sq m. Future prime office developments scheduled for completion in the CBD area include Samyan Office rents are expected to remain Mitrtown (48,000 sq m in Q3 2019), Aspiration or drop slightly in non-CBD locations One (30,000 sq m in Q4 2019), The Parq (63,000 as landlords compete with upcoming sq m in Q1 2020), the completed redevelopment office launches. Prime offices in the of Vanissa Building (25,000 sq m in Q2 2019), CBD are still in high demand. and Office@Emsphere (20,000 sq m in Q3 2019) (Figure 4). Figure 4: Prime office net supply in CBD, sq m (thousands) 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019F 2020F Completed supply New supply Source: Edmund Tie & Company Research EDMUND TIE & COMPANY RESEARCH 4 Average asking rents of prime CBD offices Figure 5: Prime office net absorption, sq m (thousands) remains at THB1,040 psm per month from Q3 and occupancy rate 2018.
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