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Renewable Energy Plan by 2030 for Palakkad District, Kerala

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Renewable Energy Plan by 2030 for Palakkad District, Kerala Report 2015 RENEWABLE ENERGY PLAN BY 2030 FOR PALAKKAD DISTRICT, KERALA ©WWF-India & WISE 2015 Published by WWF-India & WISE Reproduction is authorised, provided the source is acknowledged, save where otherwise stated. Acknowledgements WWF-India and WISE are extremely grateful to all the individual experts and specialists for providing useful inputs and insights during the preparation of this report. Special thanks are due to Dr M.P. Parameshwaran and Prof. V.K. Damodaran for providing their useful inputs and insights. We are grateful to Mr G. Vijay Raghavan, Member, State Planning Board, Mr M. Sivasankar, Chairman, Kerala State Electricity Board, Mr K. Ramachandran, Former District Collector, Palakkad, Mr Dhareshan Unnithan, Director, Energy Management Centre, Kerala and Dr V.S. Vijayan, Former Chairman of the Kerala State Biodiversity Board for their valuable inputs and suggestions. We also acknowledge the contributions and suggestions made by key representatives from the government and private sector, civil society organizations, and academic institutions. Finally, our sincere thanks to Mr G.M. Pillai, Founder Director General, WISE, for his able guidance and leadership in steering the research. We would like to thank Mr Ravi Singh, Secretary General and CEO, WWF-India for his constant support and encouragement. The support by the Norwegian Agency for Development Cooperation (NORAD) and WWF-Norway is also duly acknowledged. Project Team WISE Project Lead: Raiju John, Suhas Tendulkar Project Team: Kapardhi Bharadwaj, Rohit Bhide, Debarshi Gupta WWF- India Jincy Joy, T.S. Panwar, Renjan Mathew Varghese, Sejal Worah Disclaimer This report has been jointly prepared by WWF-India and WISE with inputs based on publicly available information and information gathered from different organizations. WWF-India and WISE disclaim any and all liability for the use that may be made of the information contained in this report. The external boundary and coastline of India or any state of India as depicted in the maps in this report are not to scale. Further, the views in the document do not necessarily reflect those of NORAD or WWF-Norway. Designed by: Creative Curve Communication Pvt Ltd Photo Credit: Cover photo - WWF- India | 3 CONTENTS LIST OF TABLES v LIST OF FIGURES ix LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS xi EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 1 PART I INTRODUCTION 8 • CHAPTER 1 INTRODUCTION AND METHODOLOGY 9 • CHAPTER 2 BRIEF OVERVIEW OF THE DISTRICT 13 PART II RENEWABLE RESOURCE ASSESSMENT OF PALAKKAD 20 • CHAPTER 3 SOLAR ENERGY POTENTIAL IN PALAKKAD 25 • CHAPTER 4 WIND POWER POTENTIAL IN PALAKKAD 31 • CHAPTER 5 SUSTAINABLE BIOENERGY POTENTIAL IN PALAKKAD 33 • CHAPTER 6 HYDRO POWER POTENTIAL IN PALAKKAD 35 • CHAPTER 7 Summary OF Renewable ENERGY POTENTIAL ASSESSMENT OF PALAKKAD 37 PART III RENEWABLE ENERGY SCENARIO FOR PALAKKAD 38 • CHAPTER 8 DISTRICT ENERGY DEMAND PROJECTIONS: BUSINESS-AS-USUAL SCENARIO 39 • CHAPTER 9 THE CURTAILED DEMAND SCENARIO 51 • CHAPTER 10 THE Renewable ENERGY 2030 SCENARIO FOR PALAKKAD 75 PART IV POLICY APPROACH AND IMPLEMENTATION ROAD MAP 82 • CHAPTER 11 POLICY IMPLICATIONS, STAKEHOLDER ENGAGEMENT AND INVESTMENT ASSESSMENT FOR TRANSITION 83 • CHAPTER 12 RENEWABLE ENERGY PLAN FOR PALAKKAD: IMPLEMENTATION ROADMAP 111 • CHAPTER 13 CONCLUSION 133 ANNEXURE • Annexure 1 SECTOR Overview AND POLICIES 137 • Annexure 2 OVERVIEW AND METHODOLOGY OF RENEWABLE ENERGY POTENTIAL 147 • Annexure 3 FORECASTING OF MAJOR VARIABLES 163 • Annexure 4A METHODOLOGY FOR FINAL ENERGY DEMAND Calculation – DOMESTIC SECTOR 167 • Annexure 4B METHODOLOGY FOR FINAL ENERGY DEMAND Calculation – COMMERCIAL SECTOR 173 • Annexure 4C METHODOLOGY FOR FINAL ENERGY DEMAND CALCULATION – INDUSTRIAL SECTOR 177 • Annexure 4D METHODOLOGY FOR FINAL ENERGY DEMAND Calculation – Agriculture SECTOR 181 • Annexure 4E METHODOLOGY FOR FINAL ENERGY DEMAND Calculation – PUBLIC UTILITIES 183 • Annexure 4F METHODOLOGY FOR FINAL ENERGY DEMAND CALCULATION – TRANSPORT SECTOR 185 • Annexure 5A ENERGY REDUCTION POTENTIAL - DOMESTIC SECTOR 205 • Annexure 5B ENERGY REDUCTION POTENTIAL - INDUSTRY SECTOR 209 • Annexure 5C ENERGY REDUCTION POTENTIAL - TRANSPORT SECTOR 215 • Annexure 6 PALAKKAD DISTRICT INVESTMENT CONSIDERATION FOR TRANSITION 223 REFERENCES 230 RENEWABLE ENERGY PLAN BY 2030 FOR PALAKKAD DISTRICT, KERALA | v LIST OF TABLES Table ES.1: Assessed RE Supply Availability of Palakkad District Table ES.2: Energy Demand (PJ) across Sectors for the BAU Scenario Table ES.3: Final Curtailed Demand Scenario –Sector Wise Table ES.4: Palakkad 2030 – The Final Energy Supply Scenario Table 2.1: Electricity Consumption Pattern of Palakkad Table 2.2: Major Crops, Acreage and Production in Palakkad Table 2.3: Agricultural Equipment used in Palakkad Table 2.4: Growth of Total Registered Vehicles in Palakkad Table II.1: Buffer Values for Features Table II.2: Land-use Categorization for Assessment of Wind and Solar Power Potential Table 3.1: Solar PV Potential of Palakkad Table 3.2: Summary of Solar Potential Table 3.3: Solar Energy Availability in Palakkad Table 4.1: Wind Power Potential in Palakkad Table 4.2: Wind Power Available in Palakkad Table 5.1: End-use of Biomass and Crop Residues Table 5.2: Biomass Resource Potential of Palakkad Table 6.1: Major Irrigation Schemes in Palakkad Table 6.2: Small Hydro Power Potential of Palakkad Table 7.1: Summary of Energy Availability from RE by 2030 Table 8.1: Estimated Domestic Electricity Demand up to 2030 Table 8.2: Estimated Final Energy Demand for the Domestic Sector up to 2030 Table 8.3: Estimated Electricity Demand for the Commercial Sector up to 2030 Table 8.4: Estimated Final Energy Demand for the Commercial Sector up to 2030 Table 8.5: Estimated Electricity Demand for the Industrial Sector up to 2030 Table 8.6: Energy (Heat) Demand of the Industrial Sector Table 8.7: Estimated Final Energy Demand for the Industrial Sector up to 2030 Table 8.8: Electricity Demand for Irrigation Table 8.9: Estimated Final Energy Demand for the Agricultural Sector up to 2030 Table 8.10: Estimated Electricity Demand for Public Utilities Table 8.11: Total Passenger Road Transport Activity Level and Energy Demand Table 8.12: Energy Demand for Rail Transport Table 8.13: Road Freight Transport Activity and Energy Demand RENEWABLE ENERGY PLAN BY 2030 FOR PALAKKAD DISTRICT, KERALA Table 8.14: Rail Freight Energy Estimation Table 8.15: Transport Sector –Total Energy Demand Table 8.16: Final Energy Demand – Sector Wise Table 8.17: Energy Demand by Fuel Source Table 9.1: Domestic Sector – Energy Demand Evolution Table 9.2: Appliance Penetration Levels and Energy Intensity Evolution – Commercial Sector Table 9.3: Commercial Sector – Energy Demand Evolution Table 9.4: Industrial Sector – Energy Demand Evolution Table 9.5: Agricultural Sector – Energy Demand Evolution Table 9.6: Public Lighting – Energy Demand Evolution Table 9.7: BAU and Proposed Modal Shift from Road to Rail Table 9.8: Transport Sector – Energy Demand Evolution Table 9.9: Final Energy Reduction Evolution through Three-Step Intervention Table 9.10: Final Curtailed Demand – Sector Wise Table 9.11: Final Curtailed Energy Demand by Sources Table 9.12: Final Curtailed Demand by Energy Carriers Table 10.1: Demand Requirements and Supply Potential for Palakkad Table 10.2: Total Electricity Requirements after Including T&D Losses Table 10.3: Electrical Energy Availability from RE Sources Table 10.4: Demand Requirements and Supply Potential for Heat in Palakkad Table 10.5: Final Supply Scenario for Cooking and Industrial Heat Table 10.6: Final Supply Scenario Table 11.1: State Investments Requirements for New Buses in Palakkad Table 11.2: State Investment Requirements for Energy Efficient Retrofits in Public Sector in Palakkad District Table 11.3: State Investment Requirements for Micro-irrigation in Palakkad Table 11.4: State Investment Requirements for Efficient Street Lighting in Palakkad Table 13.1: Total District-level Investment Requirements Table An2.1: Description of Datasets Used Table An2.2: Assumptions Considered for Assessment of Solar PV Potential for Palakkad Table An2.3: Assumptions for Estimating Wind Power Potential Table An2.4: Decentralized Rooftop PV Power Potential in Palakkad Households Table An2.5: Decentralized Rooftop PV Power Potential in Institutional/Commercial Establishments Table An2.6: Residue Available for Gasification | vii Table An2.7: Calorific Values of Crop Residues Table An2.8: Organic and Inorganic MSW Generated Table An2.9: Forest Residues Available for Biomass Energy Table An2.10: Annual Rubber Primary Wood Residue Available for Biomass Combustion Table An3.1: Decadal Population Growth Rate and Percentage Decrease in Population Growth Rate from 1961 to 2011 Table An3.2: CAGR for Population Growth from 2010-11 to 2030-31 Table An4A.1: Lighting and Television Penetration in Palakkad (per 1000 Households) Table An4A.2: Appliance Ownership Levels per 100 Households in Palakkad Table An4A.3: Regression Models for all Appliances Table An4A.4: Appliance Penetration per 100 Households Table An4A.5: Appliance Ownership Assumptions per Household Table An4A.6: Appliance Numbers Across Projection Period per 100 Households Table An4A.7: Annual Unit Appliance Energy Consumption (UEC) Table An4A.8: Cooking Fuel Share of Palakkad Table An4A.9: Cooking Fuel Share Projections up to 2030 Table An4B.1: Electricity Consumption of Commercial Sector from 2009-10 to 2013-14 Table An4B.2: Share of Sub-sectors in the Total Commercial Electricity Demand Table An4B.3: Share of LPG and Kerosene in the Commercial Sector
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