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Hold Akamai Technologies 1 August 2018 Data Networking Akamai Technologies Deutsche Bank Research Rating Company Date Hold Akamai 1 August 2018 Recommendation North America Technologies United States Change Reuters Bloomberg Exchange Ticker Price at 31 Jul 2018 (USD) 75.26 TMT AKAM.OQ AKAM UW NMS AKAM Price Target 80.00 Data Networking 52-week range 82.58 - 44.91 Downgrading to HOLD; PT: $90 to $80 on Lower Estimates; Fundamental Call Valuation & Risks Vijay Bhagavath, Ph.D. Calling for a "Range Bound" Stock; Not Anticipating Meaningful Margin or Top Line Catalysts into FY19 Research Analyst We are downgrading AKAM from BUY to HOLD and lowering our FY18-20 Top +1-415-617-3324 Line and Earnings estimates. Further, we are installing our FY21 estimates. Brian Yun We are lowering our Price Target from $90 to $80. Our $80 Target implies ~11x Research Associate EV to EBITDA DB FY19E; ~9x EV to EBITDA DB FY20E; ~10% Top Line CAGR. +1-212-250-8928 Key changes We refer clients to our estimate revision summary below and our valuation Price Target 90.00 to 80.00 -11.1% snapshot on page 7. ↓ Rating Buy to Hold ↓ EPS (USD) 1.93 to 1.61 ↓ -16.9% Why are we Downgrading AKAM to HOLD and lowering our Growth Outlook Revenue 2,751 to 2,700 ↓ -1.8% and Earnings Power view? (USDm) Source: Deutsche Bank AKAM is a "catalyst driven" stock versus a product cycle story, in our view. Price/price relative 150 There were two recent unanticipated positive surprises - i.e. "event catalysts" - 100 that notched up the trading multiple, in our view (refer to our illustrative chart in 50 Figure 1). 0 2016 2017 2018 The first was the activist investor's involvement (disclosed on 12/15/17) - following Akamai Technologies S&P 500 INDEX (Rebased) which AKAM rallied from ~$58 to ~$66 levels. Performance (%) 1m 3m 12m Subsequently, the stock rallied to $75 levels on Mar 8 after management Absolute 2.8 5.0 59.7 announced their Shareholder Value Initiatives, which discussed Operating Margin S&P 500 INDEX 3.6 6.4 14.0 targets for "high 20s", with a path to "30%" levels. Source: Deutsche Bank Stock & option liquidity data This is based on management and its consultant teams identifying operational Market Cap (USDm) 12,680.7 efficiencies (color in the company's relevant filings). Shares outstanding (m) 168.5 Free float (%) 0 These 2 major event catalysts were concomitantly supported by improving Media Volume (31 Jul 2018) 862,351 Delivery fundamentals (partly from "Terabit Scale" peak traffic volumes from Option volume (und. shrs., 1M avg.) 423,884 Source: Deutsche Bank major live events: Olympics in Q1; World Cup Soccer in Q2). In addition, we highlight recent strength in Gaming (Fortnite, in particular). Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. Distributed on: 01/08/2018 07:26:22 GMT Deutsche Bank does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. Thus, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS ARE LOCATED IN APPENDIX 1. MCI (P) 091/04/2018. 7T2se3r0Ot6kwoPa 1 August 2018 Data Networking Akamai Technologies Further, another recent event catalyst was the company's recently announced "off peak" discount pricing strategy. The price discounting strategy was meaningful in our view for getting several OTT Video and Gaming customers to churn back to the AKAM Platform. That said, the fundamental basis for our Downgrade to HOLD call is three fold: 1. Upside surprises over the next several quarters to consensus Operating Margin expectations, from ongoing opex efficiencies, are likely to be "incremental" versus "meaningful"; 2. AKAM is heading into an odd year (2019) - which would not have the benefit from Multi Terabit Scale peak traffic volumes, due to a sparse number of global scale broadcast events, in addition into tougher Media Delivery comps into the FY19 quarters; 3. AKAM's Enterprise Security business (which we were (in hindsight) bullish on, and supporting our prior overweight thesis) is likely to be a "gradual" versus an "accelerating" driver to the company's Cloud Security business, likely to hover in the "high 20s to low 30s" range, near-term. Bottom Line, our fundamental thesis arguing for lack of "significant" near-term Top Line or Margin catalysts, and AKAM largely an "event catalyst" driven stock sums up the basis for our Downgrade call from BUY to HOLD. We are asserting our neutral risk/reward view (AKAM trading at ~10x EV to EBITDA DB FY19E; ~9x EV to EBITDA DB FY20E) versus current consensus expectations, in our updated FY18-20 Top Line and EPS estimates and in our new FY21 estimates, summed below. Refer to Figure 2 for our proprietary bottoms up AKAM Segment Growth model. A key risk factor is Q/Q volatility in AKAM's Media Delivery business and potential for dilutive impacts from ongoing acquisitions (the recent Nominum acquisition being a case in point). An upside risk factor is sooner and stronger than anticipated growth in the Enterprise Security business and exogenous growth + margin expansion from potential acquisitions. DB Published Model Estimate Revisions Our updated revenue and pro forma EPS estimates are summed below: Q3 FY18 was $688M and 85c, is $663M and 83c Q4 FY18 was $726M and 93c, is $706M and 91c FY18 was $2.75B and $3.38, is $2.70B and $3.36 (~8% Top Line; ~28% EPS Growth) FY19 was $3.09B and $4.00, is $2.94B and $3.75 (~9% Top Line; ~12% EPS Growth) FY20 was $3.50B and $4.80, is $3.24B and $4.35 (~10% Top Line; ~16% EPS Growth) FY21 is $3.56B and $4.95 (~10% Top Line; ~14% EPS Growth) Note: Full financials in our Detailed Published Model, available to clients upon request. Page 2 Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. 1 August 2018 Data Networking Akamai Technologies Q2 FY18 EPS Highlights Mixed Q2: $662.8M / 83c, in line on revenues and modestly higher EPS versus consensus: $661.9M / 80c and the preannounced guidance range: $658-663M / 79-81c. Management highlighted momentum in Security products and ongoing improvement in the Media and Carrier Division. We note 39% adjusted EBITDA margin in the quarter. The Q3 FY18 guide: $656M to $668M / 80c to 86c (versus $668M / 80c) and FY18 guide: $2.68B to $2.705B / $3.26 to $3.38 (versus consensus for $2.70B / $3.27 and prior AKAM guide at midpoint: $2.69B / $3.25). Q2 EPS Call Highlights: n Muted Margin Outlook: AKAM called out muted margin expansion in 2019, primarily due to anticipated structural investments designed to help the company scale. n Web Division Price Compression: Management noted "natural pricing pressure", as well as competitive pricing pressure at Web Division customers. Further, the company indicated ongoing price compression in certain industry verticals (retail ecommerce, etc) likely to persist near term. n Media & Carrier Division: $312M (+8% Y/Y; +7% FX adjusted) - Management attributed Y/Y growth to improving Top 250 Global Media Account market share and the Nominum acquisition (~$30-40M annual contribution noted at the time of acquisition). AKAM highlighted growth in OTT (represents ~50% of total traffic on the AKAM Platform; traffic records from World Cup soccer [+20 Terabits per second]) and Gaming (Fortnite downloads set a new record for a single game release). n Cloud Security: $155M (+33% Y/Y; +31% FX adjusted) - AKAM noted several initiatives likely to drive Security revenues: new global web sales leadership, increased inside sales push, simplified pricing bundles, accelerating mobile solutions focus, improved cross selling features, etc. AKAM's Security business is at a ~$640M revenue run rate heading into Q3. n Geos Color: U.S. revenues came in at ~$413M (up +3% Y/Y); International revenues was ~$250M (up +18% Y/Y on an FX adjusted basis). Other Key Metrics: Q2: Cash, cash equivalents and marketable securities of ~$2.3B; Cash flow from operations was ~$220M; AKAM repurchased ~2.2M shares, reflecting ~$166M for buybacks. Valuation and Risks Our $80 Price Target reflects our updated FY18-20 revenue and pro forma EPS estimates, and new FY21 estimates (implies ~11x EV to EBITDA DB FY19E; ~9x EV to EBITDA DB FY20E; ~10% FY18-21E Top Line CAGR). Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. Page 3 1 August 2018 Data Networking Akamai Technologies Our $80 PT is based on DCF (growth rate of 6% and 12.5% WACC) – our primary valuation method. Our 6% growth rate assumption is based on industry trends in the Internet, ecommerce, and Digital Media Key risks: 1) Seasonal factors impacting Q/Q revenue and opex volatility; 2) market share shifts in CDN and in Cloud Security. Forecasts and ratios Year End Dec 31 2017A 2018E 2019E Actual FAS123R Proforma FAS123R Proforma 1Q EPS 0.43 0.31A 0.79A 0.54 0.88 2Q EPS 0.33 0.25A 0.83A 0.60 0.92 3Q EPS 0.37 0.48 0.83 0.61 0.93 4Q EPS 0.16 0.56 0.91 0.69 1.02 FY EPS (USD) 1.29 1.61 3.36 2.44 3.75 Revenue (USDm) 2,489.0 2,700.1 – 2,937.0 – Source: Deutsche Bank estimates, company data Page 4 Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. 1 August 2018 Data Networking Akamai Technologies Historical Positive Catalyst Events for AKAM [DB View] Figure 1: Historical Positive Catalyst Events for AKAM [DB View] $85 $80 12/15/17 - Elliot Management Discloses ~6.5% Stake in AKAM $75 $70 $65 Price $60 $55 $50 3/8/18 - AKAM Announces Shareholder Value Initiatives $45 $40 Date Source: Deutsche Bank and FactSet Deutsche Bank Securities Inc.
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