WHERE IS ELECTRIC GENERATION HEADED?
Rodney Andrews, PhD PE Director UK Center for Applied Energy Research The Annual Energy Outlook 2020 (January 29, 2020)
2 Key Takeaways from U.S. Energy Information Administration’s Annual Energy Outlook 2020 • The electricity generation mix continues to experience a rapid rate of change, with renewables the fastest‐growing source of electricity generation through 2050 because of continuing declines in the capital costs for solar and wind that are supported by federal tax credits and higher state‐level renewables targets. With slow load growth and increasing electricity production from renewables, U.S. coal‐fired and nuclear electricity generation declines; most of the decline occurs by the mid‐2020s.
• The United States continues to produce historically high levels of crude oil and natural gas. Slow growth in domestic consumption of these fuels leads to increasing exports of crude oil, petroleum products, and liquefied natural gas.
3 Production grows faster than consumption with shift toward electrification
Energy production (AEO2020 Reference case) Energy consumption by sector (AEO2020 Reference case) quadrillion British thermal units quadrillion British thermal units
2019 2019 50 50 history projections history projections dry natural gas 45 45 electric power 40 40
35 35 industrial 30 30
25 crude oil and lease 25 condensate transportation 20 other renewable energy 20
15 15 coal residential 10 natural gas plant 10 commercial liquids 5 nuclear 5 hydro 0 0 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
4 What is driving the energy markets nationally? • Future oil prices are highly uncertain and are subject to international market.
• Projections of tight oil and shale gas production are uncertain. Large portions of known formations have little or no production history and extraction technologies and practices continue to evolve rapidly. However, production and cost are likely to remain favorable.
• Economic growth drives energy consumption. Secondary factors are population growth, shifting geographic population density, and technological improvements in production and efficiency.
• Costs for renewables such as wind and solar have continued to decline as experience is gained (finally overcoming the First of Kind hurdles*). How long these high cost reduction rates can be sustained is rather uncertain. Likely these costs will continue to decline somewhat and then level off. Solar in particular is subject to international trade upsets.
*after all, the first practical windmills didn’t appear until the 9th century CE
5 Cost of technology drives installed capacity. Solar makes significant gains on price.
AEO2020 overnight installed cost by technology 2019 dollars per kilowatt natural gas combined cycle wind solar photovoltaic
Reference case Low Renewables Cost case High Renewables Cost case $1,400
$1,200
$1,000
$800
$600
$400
$200
$0 2019 2050 2019 2050 2019 2050
6 Average U.S. construction costs for solar generation continue to decrease
EIA. Today in Energy. September 3, 2019 Natural gas and renewables increase market share as price remains low and installed costs come down
Electricity generation from selected fuels Renewable electricity generation, including end use (AEO2020 Reference case) (AEO2020 Reference case) billion kilowatthours billion kilowatthours
6,000 2019 2,500 2019 history projections history projections 5,000 2,000 solar 36% natural gas 4,000 wind renewables 46% geothermal 1,500 37% nuclear hydroelectric 3,000 coal other 38% 19% 1,000 15% 2,000 33%
19% 38% 12% 500 1,000 2% 3% 37% 14% 24% 13% 7% 0 0 5% 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
8 Customer‐owned generation, including rooftop solar photovoltaic, make significant impact on total generation
Electricity generation, end‐use solar photovoltaic share (AEO2020 Reference case) billion kilowatthours percent share
6,000 4.0% end‐use solar history projections photovoltaic 3.5% share of generation 5,000 3.0% end‐use PV generation 4,000 2.5% other end‐use generation 3,000 2.0% electricity generation 1.5% from the power sector 2,000 1.0% 1,000 0.5%
0 0.0% 2015 2019 2030 2040 2050
9 Costs of new wind and solar projects decrease but are limited by cost of natural gas. Coal and nuclear plants closures stabilize.
Electricity generation from selected fuels Natural gas price at Henry Hub billion kilowatthours 2019 dollars per million British thermal 2019 3,000 2019 history projections 7 Low Oil and Gas history projections Supply 2,500 6
2,000 5 natural gas 4 Reference 1,500 High Oil and Gas renewables 3 Supply 1,000 coal 2 500 nuclear 1
0 0 1990 2010 2030 2050 2010 2030 2050
Reference
10 Expected requirements for new generating capacity will be met by renewables and natural gas in the AEO2020 Reference case—
Annual electricity generating capacity additions and retirements (Reference case) gigawatts
2019 60 history projections additions 50 40 solar wind 30 oil and gas 20 nuclear 10 other coal 0 ‐10 ‐20 ‐30 retirements ‐40 ‐50 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
11 Rising transmission and distribution costs limit production gains
Electricity prices by service category (AEO2020 Reference AEO2020 average electricity price case) 2019 cents per kilowatthour 2019 cents per kilowatthour 2019 12 12 history projections
10 11 Low Oil and 2.98 3.08 3.42 Gas Supply 8 3.56 3.51 distribution High Renewables 1.35 1.36 10 Cost 6 1.50 transmission 1.57 1.54 Reference Low Renewables generation 4 Cost 9 6.07 5.75 High Oil and Gas 5.44 4.99 4.84 Supply 2 // 0 8 0 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2019 2020 2030 2040 2050
12 Combined‐cycle and solar photovoltaic most economically competitive generating technologies
AEO2020 levelized cost of electricity and levelized avoided cost of electricity by technology and region, 2025 2019 dollars per megawatthour
natural gasnatural combined-cycle gas coal, 30%coal carbon nuclear 120 120 120
90 90 90
60 60 60
30 30 30
0 0 0 0 30 60 90 120 0 306090120 0 306090120 solar photovoltaic onshore wind 120 120 region with builds (2023–25) 90 90 region with no builds (2023–25)
60 60 levelizedavoided costof electricity Note: economically attractive builds are 30 30 shown at or above the diagonal breakeven line for each technology. 0 0 0 306090120 0 306090120
levelized cost of electricity
13 Coal production decreases through 2025 due to retiring coal‐fired electric generating capacity, but federal rule compliance and higher natural gas prices lead to coal production leveling off afterwards
AEO2020 coal production by region million short tons
2019 2019 2019 1,400 1,400 1,400 history projections projections projections 1,200 1,200 1,200
1,000 1,000 1,000
800 800 800
600 600 600 total 400 400 400
200 West 200 200 Interior 0 Appalachia 0 0 2000 2050 2015 2050 2015 2050 Reference case Low Oil and Gas Supply case High Oil and Gas Supply case
14 Lower operating costs and higher efficiencies result in advanced natural gas‐fired combined‐cycle capacity factors of 80% by 2030 in the AEO2020 Reference case—
Capacity factor for fossil‐fired plants (AEO2020 Reference case) percent
2019 100 history projections coal new multi‐shaft combined‐cycle 80 (natural gas) new single‐shaft and existing combined‐cycle (natural gas) 60 oil and natural gas steam combustion turbine (natural gas) 40
20
0 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
15 Biofuels offer proven technologies within local constraints
Electric Power Research Institute But biofuels come with unique issues
• Storage and Handling • Transportation • Ash Chemistry and Fouling • Energy Content • Grinding • Feeding • Tar formation and corrosion
3/27/2020
So why not 100 percent? • Cost • Installed cost is getting level • System cost is still high, depending on structure • Stability • Inherently intermittent • Grid interaction • Competition • Natural gas is likely to remain plentiful and cheap (~ $4) • Tax structure • Incentives are expiring • Political uncertainty • Transmission • Was not designed for this
19 So what is the future in Kentucky?
20 Note: This slide is now inaccurate.
Total KY energy consumption is declining: 1658 in 2017.
Significant increase in natural gas and closure of inefficient coal plants has seen natural gas % in electric power increase significantly.
Introduction of utility solar on small scale.
21 QUICK FACTS ON KENTUCKY
•Kentucky is the fifth‐largest coal producer in the nation and about one‐fifth of all operating U.S. coal mines are located in Kentucky, more than any other state except Pennsylvania.
•In 2018, about 75% of Kentucky's net electricity generation was coal‐fired, the third‐largest share of any state after West Virginia and Wyoming.
•Hydroelectric power provides nearly all of Kentucky's renewable electricity generation, and in 2018 about 6% of the state’s electricity was produced at nine hydropower dams.
•In 2018, Kentucky had the seventh‐lowest average electricity price of any state and the lowest price for a state east of the Mississippi River.
Last Updated: May 16, 2019
22 Near term in Kentucky….. • Lower renewables penetration • Plenty of generation capacity • Little need for energy storage to respond to intermittancy
U.S. Energy Information Administration, Short‐Term Energy Outlook, January 2019
23 Why not wind in Kentucky?
• Good places for wind turbines average wind speed • 9 mph (4 m/s) for small wind turbines • 13 mph (5.8 m/s) for utility-scale turbines. • Favorable sites include • tops of smooth, rounded hills • open plains and water • mountain gaps that funnel and intensify wind.
• Does not mean no wind power in Kentucky • Full utility scale turbines (3-5MW) are unlikely near term • Other types of turbine design may be advantageous
24 98 ft
25 262 ft
26 Innovative VWAT Designs
http://www.popularmechanics.com Wind Tree
26‐foot‐tall “tree” 63 Sanovius turbines
3,500 ‐13,500 kWh/yr $20,000 to $50,000 Solar energy varies by location • Intensity of solar radiation on the Earth’s surface varies by time of day and location • Location of Sun in sky • Cloud or other obstruction • Earth’s location to the Sun affects insolation (energy that hits an area on Earth’s surface in a given time) • Latitude, climate, and weather • Summer and winter tilt of the Earth’s axis • lower latitudes and in arid climates generally receive higher amounts of insolation • Types of solar collector also determines the type of solar radiation and level of insolation • Concentrating solar collector systems, such as solar thermal power plants, require direct solar radiation • Flat-plate solar thermal and photovoltaic (PV) collectors can use diffuse and direct
• There is plenty of solar energy to fuel humanity. But we cannot harness it completely yet.
29
Solar Data Including Tilt Angle:
Source: NREL “Redbook” https://www.nrel.gov/grid/solar-resource/renewable-resource-data.html Flat plate PV
33 Concentrating Solar Power
SolarReserves Crescent Dunes CSP Project, near Tonopah, Nevada, has an electricity generating capacity of 110 megawatts. Molten salt carrier. (credit: SolarReserve) 35 36 Solar in Kentucky • It works • Depends on tolerance for ROI • Likely to see slow adoption of roof top • Boutique installations • Corporate goals • Individual motivations • Challenge to avoid price shifting • “free ride” on the grid
37 The Short Answer for Kentucky
Natural Gas
38 Questions?
39