CLIMATE-READY VICTORIA

HUME How climate change will affect the Goulburn Broken and North East and how you can be climate-ready

The Hume region has already become HUME HAS BEEN GETTING WARMER AND DRIER. IN THE warmer and drier – a climate trend FUTURE THE REGION CAN EXPECT: likely to continue into the future.

Local residents, businesses and temperatures to continue more hot days and to increase year round warm spells communities are changing the way they do things in response. Getting less rainfall in autumn, winter fewer frosts climate-ready involves understanding and spring how climate change is likely to affect more frequent and more harsher fire weather and you and your region, and working intense downpours longer fire seasons out ways to adapt. Everyone can contribute to the Hume region’s climate-ready future.

HOW WILL THESE CHANGES AFFECT YOU, AND WHAT CAN YOU DO ABOUT THEM? This publication highlights the impacts climate change will have on the Hume region. It gives examples of how people are already becoming climate-ready, with links to more detailed information.

While this publication is about adapting to climate change, reducing your carbon emissions by reducing energy use and switching to renewable energy sources is also important in getting climate-ready. For more information on reducing your emissions, visit www.climatechange.vic.gov.au. OUR CHANGING CLIMATE

WODONGA HUME AT A GLANCE MOIRA Yarrawonga INDIGO Corryong Wodonga local government areas Shepparton Wangaratta 12 GREATER TOWONG Beechworth SHEPPARTON approximately WANGARATTA 267 000 Benalla 5% of the state BENALLA Bright STRATHBOGIE Euroa

40 283 km2 Seymour 18% Mansfield ALPINE of the MITCHELL Alexandra state Eildon MANSFIELD MURRINDINDI

RECENT CLIMATE IT’S GETTING WARMER AND DRIER Over the past 100 years, global surface air temperatures have The climate varies greatly between the alpine regions and the risen by almost 1°C. Both the atmosphere and the oceans have floodplains along the Murray River. Summer average maximum warmed. Human activity is causing climate change, through our temperatures currently range from 20°C in the alpine areas, to release of greenhouse gases from the burning of fossil fuels, 31°C on the lower slopes and plains. Winter average maximum land use change and agriculture. Atmospheric concentrations of temperatures range from 4°C in the alpine areas to 12°C on carbon dioxide are now more than 40% higher than they were the plains. Frosts can occur over the entire region between before industrialisation. April and October. There is occasionally snow in the mountains above 1000 m. In the Hume region, the rate of warming has increased since 1960. Rainfall currently ranges from 2000 mm in the alpine areas to less than 500 mm on the plains. Most rainfall occurs in winter On average, rainfall has declined since the 1960s, especially in and spring. Summer thunderstorms are common, contributing autumn. The harsh Millennium Drought (1996 to 2009) ended to the risk of fires and floods. with two of the wettest years on record in 2010–11.

For more information about some of the drivers of Victoria’s climate, visit the Climatedogs website. Temperature change in the Hume region since 1950  1.4-1.6oC CLIMATE VARIABILITY AND CHANGE  1.2-1.4oC Our climate varies – it always has and always will. This  1.0-1.2oC climate variability means that some periods are cooler and Rainfall change wetter than average (as was the case in the 1970s), while in the Hume region since 1950 others are hotter and drier (such as during the Millennium Drought). However, due to climate change, the long-term average is changing. Future climate will be different from  0-100 mm

that in the past.  100-200 mm  400-500 mm  300-400 mm  200-300 mm

2 HOW DO WE GET CLIMATE-READY? HUME CLIMATE RISKS Being climate-ready in the Hume region MORE HARSHER days of fire weather involves knowing the climate risks and impacts extreme heat for the region, and making changes so that we can take advantage of the opportunities and MORE LESS frequent and intense reduce the negative impacts. rainfall heavy downpours

GETTING CLIMATE-READY AT A GLANCE

Primary Infrastructure Tourism Health and Environment production community i rainfall h fire weather h temperature h heatwaves i rainfall h temperature h flooding h fire weather h flooding h fire weather h hot days h hot days h heatwaves h fire weather h hot days h fire weather h heatwaves i snow cover h solar radiation i snow cover KEY CLIMATE RISKS KEY CLIMATE

Earlier flowering and Increased flood Increased threats to More stress on health Amplification of planting times damage tourism infrastructure and emergency existing threats to flora services and fauna Changed distribution Increased maintenance Reduced snow depths of pests and diseases costs and shorter season More heat-related Changes to habitat deaths, particularly Farm business Increased disruption to Risks to tourists Altered disturbance among the elderly and affected by bushfire services unfamiliar with regimes disadvantaged conditions Changes in pasture Contraction of alpine Mental health effects growth ecosystems Changes in disease Reduced water Changing dynamics of

POTENTIAL IMPACTS occurrence security invasive species Reduced snow depth and cover

Consider enterprise Insure public assets Adopt appropriate Use cost-effective Target new and diversification cancellation policies pedestal fans in emerging diseases and Consider future climate heatwaves pests Plan for a secure water when locating new Undertake business supply infrastructure continuity planning Implement/use rural Increase green urban mental health care infrastructure and Regularly access long Increase road heights Multi-skill staff programs urban biodiversity and medium range Increase stormwater Diversify activity outlooks, as well as Establish contingency Link habitats to allow capacity offerings short range weather plans for patient species to move forecasts Diversify sources of Consider enterprise influxes in hospitals Consider moving power and water, diversification Re-sow pastures with Increase green spaces selected populations including decentralised CLIMATE-READY ACTIONS CLIMATE-READY varieties that account Prepare for changing and cool zones for to new areas technologies for changing seasonal seasonal demand heat stress and rainfall patterns

3 GETTING CLIMATE-READY

HOW CLIMATE-READY ARE YOU? CLIMATE-READY NOW Getting climate-ready is an ongoing process, and there’s no Victorians have always been good at managing the ups and single recipe for success. Many of the risks we face are not downs of climate. Now that we have a clearer picture of the new. However, there are likely to be changes in duration, way in which climate is likely to change in future, there’s lots frequency and severity of some weather events, as well as that we can do to become climate-ready. Decisions we make changes to the climate. now will affect how well we cope with the changing climate, To determine what’s important to you and what climate change which in turn will affect future economic and employment responses might work for your situation, consider these conditions. Decisions range from simple to complex, and questions: some will need to be made sooner than others. Your decisions may depend on the local climate in your part of the region. cc How might you – your health, property, business, community, industry – be affected by: There are many good examples of communities in your region and in Victoria preparing for and adapting to • higher temperatures and more frequent heatwaves? climate change. The links you directly to the source or • less autumn, winter and spring rainfall, more time in visit www.climatechange.vic.gov.au for a full list of links. drought, decreased water availability or flooding?

• harsher fire weather?

cc How might your services, suppliers, clients or customers PRIMARY PRODUCTION be affected? The Goulburn Valley area produces about a quarter of the cc Are you making any long-term decisions now that will be value of Victoria’s agricultural production. Irrigated and dryland impacted by future climate change? agriculture, grazing, manufacturing (including food processing) and horticulture are all major employers. cc What action could you take now to prepare? What are others in your region doing? What benefits have they Horticulture and vegetables are highly sensitive to reduced experienced? water availability. Changes in temperature will alter planting and harvesting times, and compress the times suitable to harvest. cc Can you prioritise actions that also have other benefits, Pest and disease incidence is likely to change. Intensive animal such as emissions reduction, financial, community or industries may require more power and water to cool facilities and environmental advantages? maintain adequate temperatures. While the total annual number of frost days is expected to decrease, an increase in spring frosts is cc Does climate change present any opportunities you can possible, especially over the next decade or so. take advantage of? Lower agricultural output would affect employment and regional The information, case studies and links in this brochure can economic activity. Modelling for the Shepparton region shows help get you started. that a 13% reduction in irrigated agricultural production by 2070 would result in falls in regional output of $287 million, employment of approximately 1700 and population of approximately 4000 compared to a scenario without climate change.

Through the Birchip Cropping Group, researchers worked with farmers to assess how different climate change scenarios are likely to affect cereal crop yields. The costs and benefits of different adaptation options were examined, including changed crop varieties and planting schedules, to see the extent to which farmers could offset the adverse impacts of climate change.

Dairy Australia’s Dairy Climate Toolkit provides comprehensive details of the practices that profitably reduce greenhouse gas emissions from dairy farm systems, and adaptation strategies such as addressing heat stress and responding to changes in pasture.

4 INFRASTRUCTURE HEALTH AND COMMUNITY

Significant infrastructure includes the Puckapunyal and The percentage of people overweight or obese is higher than Bandiana Military Areas, Goulburn Valley food and fruit the Victorian average, and there are also high rates of chronic processing facilities, irrigation infrastructure and bioenergy disease, disability and high-risk health behaviours such as plants. Transport infrastructure is critical to the functioning smoking. Over the next 10 years, the region’s population of the region. The interstate links of the Hume and Goulburn is expected to expand a further 22% with growth around Valley corridors are the backbone of the region’s transport Shepparton and Wodonga, and significant growth in the network, each with major highways and rail networks proportion of people aged over 65. connected to interstate cities and markets. Increased hot days and heatwaves will exacerbate existing Transport infrastructure will be increasingly exposed to periodic health risks, putting greater pressure on hospitals and flooding and increased heat loading. Long hot spells will emergency services. Vulnerable groups may need assistance weaken road surfaces and exposure to extreme heat events to manage the impacts of climate change. More frequent could result in road rutting and cracking, and bridge expansion extreme weather events and impacts on the economy and jobs joint cracking. due to climate change may also affect the mental health of the community. The Goulburn-Murray Water Connections Project is creating a stronger, more sustainable, future for The community of Beechworth has started a irrigation agriculture across the Goulburn-Murray resilience program as part of its school and early Irrigation District. Victoria and the Commonwealth childhood program, bringing together Beechworth are investing more than $2 billion to create a network Health Service, the Country Fire Authority, local that delivers water when and where it’s needed. primary schools and early childhood education services. Funded through the Foundation for Rural and Regional Renewal, activities for children, educators and parents that foster resilience TOURISM and a positive mindset have been delivered in Tourism is a major economic and employment sector for conjunction with the Country Fire Authority’s Bush Hume, with over 2.5 million domestic overnight visitors, Preparedness program. and tourism expenditure exceeding $1.3 billion per annum. The region includes alpine resorts, which are a major winter attraction. The Murray River corridor offers many summertime ENVIRONMENT activities. The region boasts a range of important habitats, ranging from The ski industry is expected to face significant changes as a wetlands to alpine ecosystems. result of the warming climate. While snow making will offset some of the losses of natural snow, there will be fewer days In the mountains, diverse vegetation communities provide where the temperature will be suitable for snow making. habitat for a wide array of native flora and fauna, including Increased fire weather and community perception of fire many endemic and threatened species. The Mountain Pygmy danger, and reductions in river flows and water availability may Possum, for example, is limited to high mountain habitats and affect tourist numbers. will be highly sensitive to climate change impacts.

The Murray River is home to several species of fish that are sensitive to changed flow regimes, such as the Murray Cod and Macquarie Perch. Flooding along the Murray is important for maintaining the River Red Gums, and the riverine forests and waterways are important breeding sites for Superb Parrots, Squirrel Gliders, Brush-tailed Phascogales, Long-necked Turtles and Murray Spiny Crayfish.

Degradation of biodiversity will place greater stress on the personal and economic wellbeing of communities in Hume.

The Goulburn Broken and North East Catchment Management Authorities are developing adaptation plans to provide further information about the impacts of climate change on natural resources. The plans will also identify priority actions for adaptation and mitigation and will be available in 2016.

5 FUTURE CLIMATE

LOOKING AHEAD UNDERSTANDING THE Our confidence in the projections is based on a combination of scientific Climate projections for the Hume PROJECTIONS understanding, past climate changes, region are based on sophisticated The projections are presented as a evaluation of climate model performance median (middle) value and a range national and international global and the extent of climate model that excludes the lower and upper 10% climate models. These models agreement. Very high confidence of results. use the physical laws that govern indicates robust evidence and high the way the world’s climate works For example, in 2070 under a high model agreement. to simulate the climate from high emissions scenario, annual average in the atmosphere to the depths temperature is projected to rise by very high confidence **** 2.7°C (2.1–3.3°C). In this case, the high confidence *** of the oceans. The models run on medium confidence median temperature rise determined by ** some of the world’s most powerful all the models is 2.7°C; 90% of model supercomputers, and successfully results indicated a rise of at least 2.1°C represent the important features of TEMPERATURE and 90% of the model results indicated today’s climate as well as those of a rise of 3.3°C or less. Average temperatures will continue past climate. to increase in all seasons **** Maths and physics do not govern For the near future (2030), the annually social and economic aspects of averaged warming is projected to be o the future, so we don’t know the 3.3 C around 0.6 to 1.3°C above the climate impacts of population, the economy, 2.7oC of 1986–2005. By the year 2070, the projected range of warming is 1.2 to 3.3°C, policy decisions and technology on o o 2.1 C 2.1 C depending on future emissions. greenhouse gas emissions. To cover 1.7oC o a range of possibilities, scientists 1.3 C 1.2oC o There will be more hot days and use emissions scenarios called 1.0 C 0.6oC warm spells **** Representative Concentration There will be a substantial increase in Pathways (RCPs) to develop climate 2070 2070 2030 lower high the temperature reached on hot days. projections. These projections emissions emissions There will be more hot days (greater describe a high emissions future than 35°C), and warm spells will last (using RCP8.5) and a lower Projected annual average temperature changes for the Hume region longer. emissions future (using RCP4.5). For the past 10 years we’ve tracked There will be fewer frosts *** along the high emissions pathway. Frost-risk days will decrease. More information about how the projections were produced and FUTURE CLIMATE WODONGA guidance on their application are at Average number of days per year climatechangeinaustralia.gov.au. Hot days (over 35oC) The climate is projected to continue 21 31 39 47 to change over the coming century. Frost days (under 2oC) The projections are given for 20-year periods centred on 2030 and 40 29 23 13 2070, so the 2030 projections are FUTURE CLIMATE SHEPPARTON Current 2030 2070 2070 for the period 2020–2039 and the lower high Average number of days per year emissions emissions 2070 projections are for the period Hot days (over 35oC) 2060–2079. Given the similarity 15 23 29 37 of the emissions scenarios up to Wodonga 2030, only projections for the high o Frost days (under 2 C) Shepparton emissions scenario for 2030 are used 37 27 21 13 in this publication. Projections are represented as a change relative to Current 2030 2070 2070 lower high the period 1986–2005. emissions emissions

6 RAINFALL FIRE WEATHER

Natural climate variability will Frequency and intensity of extreme Fire weather is projected to be dominate any projected changes in rainfall events are projected to rise *** harsher in the future *** the near future *** Despite an overall trend of declining Fire weather is a measure of fuel In the near future (2030), year to year rainfall, more of the rain that does fall will dryness and hot, dry, windy conditions. changes in rainfall will dominate trends be in increasingly extreme downpours. An increase in frequency of very caused by greenhouse gases. Recent This is likely to lead to an increase in the high and extreme fire danger days is research partly links the observed cool incidence of flooding events, particularly projected. season rainfall reductions to climate in urbanised and svmall catchments. change. Time spent in drought is projected More detailed information on these and other By 2070 there is projected to be to increase over the course of the climate variables is available at less rainfall in the cool season *** century ** www.climatechange.vic.gov.au but no rainfall changes in the warm season ** Projected annual average rainfall changes for Overall, rainfall is likely to decrease, with the Hume region 5% 5% the greatest decreases expected in 3% spring and winter. 0 0 0 –2% Conditions outside these projections –5% –5% are also possible, from either natural –13% variability (such as extended drought) or climate changes that are outside the –21% range we currently estimate. –24% 2030 2070 2070 lower high emissions emissions

PROJECTED SEASONAL RAINFALL CHANGE (%) FOR HUME

30%

20% summer

10% autumn autumn summer autumn summer winter 0% winter spring winter spring spring

–10%

–20%

–30%

–40%

–50% 2030 2070 2070 lower high emissions emissions The bar indicates the range and the middle value is shown by the horizontal line.

7 HUME 2050

In 2050, under high emissions, the climate of Shepparton will be more Dubbo like the climate of Griffith now; and Wangaratta and Benalla will be more like Dubbo.

To find out what the climate will be like in the future where you live, use the Climate Analogues tool on the Climate Change in Australia website at www.climatechangeinaustralia.gov.au. The tool matches projected rainfall and maximum temperature with the current climate experienced in another location for 20-year periods centred on 2030, 2050 and

2090. Griffith ARE YOU CLIMATE-READY? There are many resources available to help you get climate-ready. A full list of links to projects mentioned in this brochure is available at www.climatechange.vic.gov.au. Wangaratta There are similar brochures for other Victorian regions and a statewide Shepparton Benalla brochure, available at www.climatechange.vic.gov.au.

To find out more about what the Victorian Government is doing to make the state more climate-ready, or for more information about Victorian Government climate policy, visit www.climatechange.vic.gov.au.

Information about the impacts of climate change on water availability and supply is available from the Victorian Climate Initiative website at www.cawcr.gov.au/projects/vicci/.

Information about the changes in our climate since the beginning of last century and trends we’re seeing now is available from the Bureau of Meteorology website at www.bom.gov.au.

Information about the future climate and its impacts, and adaptation strategies, is available from the Climate Change in Australia website, produced by CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology, at www.climatechangeinaustralia.gov.au.

Climate-ready Victoria: Hume. November 2015. Climate change projections in this publication have been generated by CSIRO on behalf of the Victorian Government, and are based on national projections released by CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology. The Bureau of Meteorology has kindly supplied data on climatic trends. CSIRO has reviewed this publication. © The State of Victoria Department of Environment, Land, Water & Planning 2015 ISBN 978-1-74146-892-2 (pdf) This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International licence. You are free to re-use the work under that licence, on the condition that you credit the State of Victoria as author. The licence does not apply to any images, photographs or branding, including the Victorian Government logo. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ The State of Victoria and its employees, contractors, agents and any acknowledged contributors to this publication prepared this document in good faith, but do not guarantee that it is complete or without flaw of any kind and therefore disclaim all liability for any error, loss or other consequence which may arise directly or indirectly from you relying on any information or material in this publication (in part or in whole). Any reliance on the information or material in the publication is made at the reader’s own risk, and readers should verify that the information used is suitable for their purpose. As the future climate projections are based on computer modelling, there are inherent uncertainties in the data. Photo credits: Alpine Shire Council, Catherine Sutherland, Tourism Victoria, Destination Albury Wodonga

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