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Intelligence Analysis BY ORDER OF THE AIR FORCE HANDBOOK 14-133 SECRETARY OF THE AIR FORCE 27 SEPTEMBER 2017 Intelligence INTELLIGENCE ANALYSIS ACCESSIBILITY: Publications and forms are available on the e-Publishing website at www.e-Publishing.af.mil for downloading or ordering. RELEASABILITY: There are no releasability restrictions on this publication. OPR: AF/A2OA Certified by: AF/A2O (Brig Gen Aaron M. Prupas) Pages: 104 This Air Force Handbook (AFH) is the reference guide for conducting intelligence analysis as prescribed by Air Force Policy Directive (AFPD) 14-1, Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance (ISR) Planning, Resources and Operations and supports the operational requirements and processes outlined under Air Force Instruction (AFI) 14-133, Intelligence Analysis and AFI 14-134, Intelligence Analysis Production and Requirements Management. This publication provides the definitions, guidelines, procedures and tools for intelligence analysis operations. It has application and use for Regular Component, Air Force Reserve (AFR), Air National Guard (ANG), and Department of the Air Force (AF) Civilians, except where noted otherwise. Ensure that all records created as a result of processes prescribed in this publication are maintained in accordance with (IAW) Air Force Manual (AFMAN) 33-363, Management of Records, and disposed of IAW the Air Force Records Disposition Schedule (RDS) in the Air Force Records Information Management System (AFRIMS). Refer recommended changes and questions about this publication to the Office of Primary Responsibility (OPR) using the AF Form 847, Recommendation for Change of Publication; route AF Forms 847 from the field through the appropriate functional chain of command. This publication may be supplemented at any level, but all direct supplements are routed to the OPR of this publication for coordination prior to certification and approval. Major Commands (MAJCOMs) need to provide a copy to the OPR upon publication. The use of the name or mark of any specific manufacturer, commercial product, commodity, or service in this publication does not imply endorsement by the AF. 2 AFH14-133 27 SEPTEMBER 2017 Chapter 1— OVERVIEW 5 1.1. Purpose.................................................................................................................... 5 1.2. Intelligence Analysis. .............................................................................................. 5 1.3. Operational Viewpoint-1 (OV-1). ........................................................................... 7 Figure 1.1. AF Intelligence Analysis OV-1. ............................................................................. 7 Chapter 2— AF INTELLIGENCE ANALYSIS ENTERPRISE 9 2.1. Analyst Airmen. ...................................................................................................... 9 2.2. AF Intelligence Analysis Enterprise (AFIAE) ........................................................ 9 Figure 2.1. AFIAE. .................................................................................................................... 9 2.3. Analysis Spectrum .................................................................................................. 10 Figure 2.2. AF Spectrum of Intelligence Analysis. ................................................................... 11 2.4. Characteristics ......................................................................................................... 11 Table 2.1. Layers of Analysis. ................................................................................................. 12 Figure 2.3. Layered, Distributed, and Mutually Supporting Nature of AFIAE. ....................... 14 Chapter 3— THE NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE ANALYSIS COMMUNITY AND THE AIR FORCE 15 3.1. The Intelligence Community. ................................................................................. 15 3.2. Intelligence Analysis and the Joint Intelligence Process. ....................................... 16 Figure 3.1. Joint Intelligence Process. ....................................................................................... 17 3.3. IC Funding. ............................................................................................................. 18 3.4. Quality Analysis Programs ..................................................................................... 18 3.5. AF National Tactical Integration (AF NTI) ............................................................ 18 Chapter 4— ANALYSIS FUNDAMENTALS–ACTIVITIES, TENETS, & STANDARDS 20 4.1. AF ISR Capabilities ................................................................................................ 20 Figure 4.1. Enduring GIISR Capabilities. ................................................................................. 20 4.2. AF Intelligence Analysis Activities ........................................................................ 20 Figure 4.2. AF Intelligence Analysis Activities. ....................................................................... 21 Figure 4.3. AF Intelligence Analysis Continuum. ..................................................................... 22 4.3. AF Intelligence Analysis Tenets. ............................................................................ 22 AFH14-133 27 SEPTEMBER 2017 3 4.4. AF Standards of Intelligence Analysis ................................................................... 23 4.5. Beyond the Checklist .............................................................................................. 24 4.6. AF Analytic Ombuds .............................................................................................. 25 Chapter 5— ANALYSIS SKILLS AND TRADECRAFT 26 5.1. Overview. ................................................................................................................ 26 Figure 5.1. Transforming Data to Decisions. ............................................................................ 26 Figure 5.2. Relationship and Role of Intelligence Analysis Skills and Tradecraft. .................. 27 5.2. Skills and Tradecraft Fundamentals. ....................................................................... 28 Figure 5.3. Fundamental Skills and Tradecraft of the Analysis Process. .................................. 29 Figure 5.4. SATs. ...................................................................................................................... 31 5.3. Key Analysis Concepts. .......................................................................................... 35 Figure 5.5. Data Analytics Framework. .................................................................................... 36 Figure 5.6. Traditional Model for Target Discovery. ................................................................ 38 Figure 5.7. ABI/OBP Integrated Model for Target Discovery. ................................................. 39 5.4. Additional Tradecraft Resources. ........................................................................... 39 Chapter 6— REQUIREMENTS AND PRODUCTION 40 6.1. Intelligence Requirements and Analytic Focus. ..................................................... 40 6.2. Intelligence Production ........................................................................................... 42 Figure 6.1. Requirement–Production Cycle. ............................................................................. 42 6.3. Request for Information (RFI) and Analysis/Production Process........................... 43 Figure 6.2. RFI and Analysis/Production Process. .................................................................... 43 Figure 6.3. RFI and Analysis/Production Process across the AFIAE. ...................................... 44 6.4. Acquisition Intelligence .......................................................................................... 44 4 AFH14-133 27 SEPTEMBER 2017 Attachment 1— GLOSSARY OF REFERENCES AND SUPPORTING INFORMATION 46 Attachment 2— PRODUCT AND SERVICE LINES 58 Attachment 3— COMMON ANALYSIS LESSONS 61 Attachment 4— SAMPLE STANDARDS EVALUATION METHODOLOGY 65 Attachment 5— AF ISR SAT TRADECRAFT GUIDE 69 Attachment 6— IC, DOD, AND MILITARY SERVICE REFERENCES 88 Attachment 7— ONLINE RESOURCES FOR ANALYSIS SKILLS AND TRADECRAFT. 92 Attachment 8— ANNOTATED BIBLIOGRAPHY 94 AFH14-133 27 SEPTEMBER 2017 5 Chapter 1 OVERVIEW 1.1. Purpose. 1.1.1. The responsibilities of the intelligence analyst have never been more important. The increasingly complex global environment demands analyst Airmen be steeped in tradecraft fundamentals, conversant on the Intelligence Community (IC) and other service capabilities, and prepared to tailor their analysis skills to the operational challenge at hand. The purpose of this non-directive publication is to help guide every analyst Airman in answering this call. It provides reference and instructional material for the analyst Airman working in the air, space, and/or cyber domains—whether junior or seasoned; officer, enlisted, or civilian; regular AF, reserve or guard; and serving AF, joint, national, or combined missions. The content of this publication is intentionally broad in nature, ranging from foundational doctrine and tactics, techniques, and procedures (TTPs) to analysis applications and lessons learned. 1.1.2. The long-term intent for this publication is to have it reside as a series of interactive and up-to-date web pages online, with links to IC and AF directives, templates, checklists, and other references. The online version will serve as a useful tool for the
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