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Ontario-GTA Davenport Q3 Percent Interactive Voter Communications Fair Vote Canada National Survey IVR Report May 16, 2017 Web: www.mystrategicdirections.com Email: [email protected] Phone:1 1-888-398-5246 Table of Contents: Section Page Summary...................................................................................................................................................... 3 National Results.......................................................................................................................................... 7 Results by Region: BC........................................................................................................................................... 11 Burnaby North Seymour........................................................................................... 13 Kelowna-Lake Country............................................................................................. 15 Pitt Meadows-Maple Ridge..................................................................................... 17 Nova Scotia………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………. 19 Halifax....................................................................................................................... 21 Sackville-Preston-Chezzetcook................................................................................. 23 Ontario-West.......................................................................................................................... 25 Hamilton East-Stoney Creek..................................................................................... 27 Kitchener Centre...................................................................................................... 29 Burlington................................................................................................................. 31 Hamilton West-Ancaster-Dundas ............................................................................ 33 Ontario-East........................................................................................................................... 35 Hastings-Lennox-Addington..................................................................................... 37 Kingston.................................................................................................................... 39 Ontario-Ottawa...................................................................................................................... 41 Kanata-Carleton........................................................................................................43 Ottawa-West Nepean............................................................................................... 45 Ontario-Peterborough............................................................................................................ 47 Northumberland-Peterborough South.................................................................... 49 Peterborough-Kawartha........................................................................................... 51 Ontario-GTA........................................................................................................................... 53 Pickering-Uxbridge................................................................................................... 55 Davenport................................................................................................................. 57 Danforth................................................................................................................... 59 University-Rosedale................................................................................................. 61 Winnipeg Centre.................................................................................................................... 63 Charlottetown........................................................................................................................ 65 National Results Cross tabulation Tables By Age..................................................................................................................................... 67 By Gender............................................................................................................................... 69 By Age by Gender I................................................................................................................. 71 By Age by Gender II................................................................................................................ 75 Appendices Appendix A: Spadina-Fort York.............................................................................................. 80 Appendix B: Script.................................................................................................................. 82 2 Poll Summary: Between April 22 and May 12, Strategic Directions conducted a survey of 16,708 randomly selected residents from 21 Liberal ridings across Canada. The survey assessed public awareness and opinions regarding electoral reform and proportional representation. Results: Overall, the survey found broad support for changing our electoral system and adopting a model of proportional representation. For the first question, participants were asked if they would prefer an electoral system in which the percentage of seats a party has matches the percentage of the votes that party receives, instead of our current First-Past-The-Post (FPTP) system. Nationally, over two-thirds (68%) of Canadians said ‘Yes’ they would prefer a more proportional system. Regionally, support was at or above the national level, with the exception of the Ottawa region where support dipped to 61%. BC and Eastern Ontario reported the greatest support with 74% supporting an electoral system in which party seats are proportional to a parties national vote. Question 1 By Region Yes No National 69% 31% BC 74% 26% Nova Scotia 70% 30% Ontario-West 71% 29% Ontario-East 74% 26% Ontario-Ottawa 61% 39% Ontario-Peterborough 66% 34% Ontario-GTA 69% 31% 3 Poll Summary: When asked explicitly if they would prefer that Canada adopt a Proportional Representation (PR) system, national support was once again two-thirds (66%). Regionally, the Ottawa area again showed the lowest level of support (59%), while BC once again was the highest (74%) level of support in adopting a PR system. Question 2 By Region Yes No National 67% 33% BC 74% 26% Nova Scotia 63% 37% Ontario-West 72% 28% Ontario-East 72% 28% Ontario-Ottawa 59% 41% Ontario-Peterborough 61% 39% Ontario-GTA 64% 36% When asked if they would support a system in which every vote counts (whether you vote for the winning candidate or not), support increased substantially to 74% nationally. Every region, except for Ottawa, recorded support levels at or above 70%. Question 3 By Region Yes No National 74% 26% BC 79% 21% Nova Scotia 74% 26% Ontario-West 79% 21% Ontario-East 72% 28% Ontario-Ottawa 66% 34% Ontario-Peterborough 72% 28% Ontario-GTA 74% 26% 4 Poll Summary: The fourth question asked participants if they want their local MP to advocate in the House of Commons for the Liberal Party to keep their campaign promise of electoral reform. Nationally, 70% of Canadians said ‘Yes’ they want their MP to advocate for electoral reform. Outside of the Ottawa region, the same pattern of support was found across Canada, with over two-thirds (66%-75%) of Canadians stating that they want the Liberal party to keep their election promise. Question 4 By Region Yes No National 70% 30% BC 69% 31% Nova Scotia 69% 31% Ontario-West 75% 25% Ontario-East 72% 28% Ontario-Ottawa 61% 39% Ontario-Peterborough 66% 34% Ontario-GTA 71% 29% 5 Poll Summary: Method: The survey was conducted with an interactive voice response (IVR) system, using a combination of landline and cellphone numbers. National and regional results have been weighted to accurately reflect national age and gender distributions within each province. Region Sample Size Reliability BC 1624 +/- 2.50% Nova Scotia 1758 +/- 2.50% Ontario-West 3180 +/- 2.00% Ontario-East 2026 +/- 2.25% Ontario-Ottawa 1347 +/- 2.75% Ontario-Peterborough 1732 +/- 2.50% Ontario-GTA 3900 +/- 2.00% Most local results have not been weighted, due to smaller sample sizes. Results that are weighted are noted below the table of results. Reliability estimates (95% confidence intervals) are also noted below the corresponding table of results. About Us: Direct Pulse is the research and polling division of Strategic Directions. 6 Question 1 Canada’s current voting system is called first-past-the-post. In this system, a party can have 39% of the total votes across Canada, but if they win more than half of the ridings, that party has the power to pass legislation on its own. This means they do not have to work with other Parties to pass legislation. Would you prefer a system where the percentage of seats a party has matches the percentage of the votes that they receive? 1. Yes 2. No 3. Unsure Decided Participants National Percent Yes 53% 31% Yes No 24% No Unsure 23% 69% Results accurate to within +/-1.00%, 19 times out of 20 Results have been weighted to more accurately reflect population demographics 7 Question 2 An alternative to our current system would be a made-in-Canada form of proportional representation, in which a party with 25% of the vote would receive 25% of the seats in the House of Commons, while maintaining a measure of local representation. Would you prefer that Canada adopt this kind of system? 1. Yes 2. No 3. Unsure Decided Participants National
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