Interactive Voter Communications Fair Vote Canada National Survey IVR Report May 16, 2017
Web: www.mystrategicdirections.com Email: [email protected] Phone:1 1-888-398-5246 Table of Contents: Section Page Summary...... 3 National Results...... 7 Results by Region: BC...... 11 Burnaby North Seymour...... 13 Kelowna-Lake Country...... 15 Pitt Meadows-Maple Ridge...... 17 Nova Scotia………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………. 19 Halifax...... 21 Sackville-Preston-Chezzetcook...... 23 Ontario-West...... 25 Hamilton East-Stoney Creek...... 27 Kitchener Centre...... 29 Burlington...... 31 Hamilton West-Ancaster-Dundas ...... 33 Ontario-East...... 35 Hastings-Lennox-Addington...... 37 Kingston...... 39 Ontario-Ottawa...... 41 Kanata-Carleton...... 43 Ottawa-West Nepean...... 45 Ontario-Peterborough...... 47 Northumberland-Peterborough South...... 49 Peterborough-Kawartha...... 51 Ontario-GTA...... 53 Pickering-Uxbridge...... 55 Davenport...... 57 Danforth...... 59 University-Rosedale...... 61 Winnipeg Centre...... 63 Charlottetown...... 65 National Results Cross tabulation Tables By Age...... 67 By Gender...... 69 By Age by Gender I...... 71 By Age by Gender II...... 75 Appendices Appendix A: Spadina-Fort York...... 80 Appendix B: Script...... 82 2 Poll Summary:
Between April 22 and May 12, Strategic Directions conducted a survey of 16,708 randomly selected residents from 21 Liberal ridings across Canada. The survey assessed public awareness and opinions regarding electoral reform and proportional representation.
Results:
Overall, the survey found broad support for changing our electoral system and adopting a model of proportional representation.
For the first question, participants were asked if they would prefer an electoral system in which the percentage of seats a party has matches the percentage of the votes that party receives, instead of our current First-Past-The-Post (FPTP) system. Nationally, over two-thirds (68%) of Canadians said ‘Yes’ they would prefer a more proportional system. Regionally, support was at or above the national level, with the exception of the Ottawa region where support dipped to 61%. BC and Eastern Ontario reported the greatest support with 74% supporting an electoral system in which party seats are proportional to a parties national vote. Question 1 By Region Yes No National 69% 31% BC 74% 26% Nova Scotia 70% 30% Ontario-West 71% 29% Ontario-East 74% 26% Ontario-Ottawa 61% 39% Ontario-Peterborough 66% 34% Ontario-GTA 69% 31%
3 Poll Summary:
When asked explicitly if they would prefer that Canada adopt a Proportional Representation (PR) system, national support was once again two-thirds (66%). Regionally, the Ottawa area again showed the lowest level of support (59%), while BC once again was the highest (74%) level of support in adopting a PR system.
Question 2 By Region Yes No National 67% 33% BC 74% 26% Nova Scotia 63% 37% Ontario-West 72% 28% Ontario-East 72% 28% Ontario-Ottawa 59% 41% Ontario-Peterborough 61% 39% Ontario-GTA 64% 36%
When asked if they would support a system in which every vote counts (whether you vote for the winning candidate or not), support increased substantially to 74% nationally. Every region, except for Ottawa, recorded support levels at or above 70%.
Question 3 By Region Yes No National 74% 26% BC 79% 21% Nova Scotia 74% 26% Ontario-West 79% 21% Ontario-East 72% 28% Ontario-Ottawa 66% 34% Ontario-Peterborough 72% 28% Ontario-GTA 74% 26% 4 Poll Summary:
The fourth question asked participants if they want their local MP to advocate in the House of Commons for the Liberal Party to keep their campaign promise of electoral reform. Nationally, 70% of Canadians said ‘Yes’ they want their MP to advocate for electoral reform. Outside of the Ottawa region, the same pattern of support was found across Canada, with over two-thirds (66%-75%) of Canadians stating that they want the Liberal party to keep their election promise.
Question 4 By Region Yes No National 70% 30% BC 69% 31% Nova Scotia 69% 31% Ontario-West 75% 25% Ontario-East 72% 28% Ontario-Ottawa 61% 39% Ontario-Peterborough 66% 34% Ontario-GTA 71% 29%
5 Poll Summary:
Method:
The survey was conducted with an interactive voice response (IVR) system, using a combination of landline and cellphone numbers. National and regional results have been weighted to accurately reflect national age and gender distributions within each province.
Region Sample Size Reliability BC 1624 +/- 2.50% Nova Scotia 1758 +/- 2.50% Ontario-West 3180 +/- 2.00% Ontario-East 2026 +/- 2.25% Ontario-Ottawa 1347 +/- 2.75% Ontario-Peterborough 1732 +/- 2.50% Ontario-GTA 3900 +/- 2.00%
Most local results have not been weighted, due to smaller sample sizes. Results that are weighted are noted below the table of results. Reliability estimates (95% confidence intervals) are also noted below the corresponding table of results.
About Us: Direct Pulse is the research and polling division of Strategic Directions.
6 Question 1 Canada’s current voting system is called first-past-the-post. In this system, a party can have 39% of the total votes across Canada, but if they win more than half of the ridings, that party has the power to pass legislation on its own. This means they do not have to work with other Parties to pass legislation. Would you prefer a system where the percentage of seats a party has matches the percentage of the votes that they receive?
1. Yes 2. No 3. Unsure Decided Participants National Percent Yes 53% 31% Yes No 24% No Unsure 23% 69% Results accurate to within +/-1.00%, 19 times out of 20 Results have been weighted to more accurately reflect population demographics
7 Question 2 An alternative to our current system would be a made-in-Canada form of proportional representation, in which a party with 25% of the vote would receive 25% of the seats in the House of Commons, while maintaining a measure of local representation. Would you prefer that Canada adopt this kind of system?
1. Yes 2. No 3. Unsure
Decided Participants National Percent Yes 54% 33% Yes No 26% No Unsure 20% 67% Results accurate to within +/-1.00%, 19 times out of 20 Results have been weighted to more accurately reflect population demographics
8 Question 3 In a proportional system, every possible vote will count towards electing someone from the party you support. Under our current first-past-the-post system, if you vote for a candidate that does not win, your vote will not elect a representative. Are you in favour of a system that would make every possible vote count toward representation?
1. Yes 2. No 3. Unsure Decided Participants National Percent 26% Yes 64% Yes No 22% No Unsure 13% 74% Results accurate to within +/-1.00%, 19 times out of 20 Results have been weighted to more accurately reflect population demographics
9 Question 4 The Liberal Party campaigned on a promise to end first-past-the-post and make every vote count in time for the next election. After consultations with the public and experts, the all-party committee on electoral reform recommended proportional representation. The Liberals have now chosen to break their promise of electoral reform. Do you want your Member of Parliament, ______to advocate in the House of Commons that the Liberal government keep its promise, and change our system to proportional representation in time for the next election?
1. Yes 2. No 3. Unsure Decided Participants National Percent 30% Yes 60% Yes No 25% No Unsure 15% 70% Results accurate to within +/-1.00%, 19 times out of 20 Results have been weighted to more accurately reflect population demographics
10 BC Regional Results Decided Participants Q1 Percent 26% Yes 57% Yes No 20% No Unsure 23% Results accurate to within +/-2.50%, 19 times out of 20 74% Results have been weighted to more accurately reflect population demographics
Q2 Percent 26% Yes 61% Yes No 21% No Unsure 18% Results accurate to within +/-2.50%, 19 times out of 20 74% Results have been weighted to more accurately reflect population demographics
11 BC Regional Results Decided Participants Q3 Percent 26% Yes 61% Yes No 21% Unsure 18% No Results accurate to within +/-2.50%, 19 times out of 20 74% Results have been weighted to more accurately reflect population demographics
Q4 Percent Yes 61% 31% Yes No 27% No Unsure 13% 69% Results accurate to within +/-2.50%, 19 times out of 20 Results have been weighted to more accurately reflect population demographics
12 Local Results Burnaby North Seymour Decided Participants Q1 Percent 34% Yes Yes 44% 66% No No 23% Unsure 33% Results accurate to within +/-4.50%, 19 times out of 20
Q2 Percent 32% Yes Yes 54% No No 25% 68% Unsure 21% Results accurate to within +/-4.50%, 19 times out of 20
13 Local Results Burnaby North Seymour Decided Participants Q3 24% Percent Yes Yes 65% No No 20% 76% Unsure 15% Results accurate to within +/-4.50%, 19 times out of 20
Q4 Percent 32% Yes Yes 57% No No 27% 68% Unsure 15% Results accurate to within +/-4.50%, 19 times out of 20
14 Local Results Kelowna-Lake Country Decided Participants Q1 Percent 32% Yes Yes 43% No No 20% 68% Unsure 37% Results accurate to within +/-4.50%, 19 times out of 20
Q2 Percent 35% Yes Yes 47% 65% No No 26% Unsure 27% Results accurate to within +/-4.50%, 19 times out of 20
15 Local Results Kelowna-Lake Country Decided Participants Q3 23% Percent Yes Yes 65% No No 20% 77% Unsure 15% Results accurate to within +/-4.50%, 19 times out of 20
Q4 29% Percent Yes Yes 59% No No 24% 71% Unsure 17% Results accurate to within +/-4.50%, 19 times out of 20
16 Local Results Pitt Meadows-Maple Ridge Decided Participants Q1 Percent 34% Yes Yes 42% 66% No No 21% Unsure 37% Results accurate to within +/-4.50%, 19 times out of 20
Q2 27% Percent Yes Yes 52% No No 19% 73% Unsure 29% Results accurate to within +/-4.50%, 19 times out of 20
17 Local Results Pitt Meadows-Maple Ridge Decided Participants
Q3 19% Percent Yes Yes 67% No No 16% 81% Unsure 18% Results accurate to within +/-4.50%, 19 times out of 20
Q4 25% Percent Yes Yes 60% No No 20% 75% Unsure 20% Results accurate to within +/-4.50%, 19 times out of 20
18 Nova Scotia Regional Results Decided Participants Q1 Percent Yes 51% 30% Yes No 22% No Unsure 27% 70% Results accurate to within +/-2.50%, 19 times out of 20 Results have been weighted to more accurately reflect population demographics
Q2 Percent Yes 47% 36% Yes No 28% No Unsure 25% 64% Results accurate to within +/-2.50%, 19 times out of 20 Results have been weighted to more accurately reflect population demographics
19 Nova Scotia Regional Results Decided Participants Q3 Percent 26% Yes 63% Yes No 22% No Unsure 15% Results accurate to within +/-2.50%, 19 times out of 20 74% Results have been weighted to more accurately reflect population demographics
Q4 Percent Yes 53% 31% Yes No 24% No Unsure 23% 69% Results accurate to within +/-2.50%, 19 times out of 20 Results have been weighted to more accurately reflect population demographics
20 Local Results: Nova Scotia Halifax Decided Participants Q1 Percent 26% Yes 55% Yes No 19% No Unsure 26% Results accurate to within +/-3.25%, 19 times out of 20 74% Results have been weighted to more accurately reflect population demographics
Q2 Percent Yes 52% 33% Yes No 26% No Unsure 21% 67% Results accurate to within +/-3.25%, 19 times out of 20 Results have been weighted to more accurately reflect population demographics
21 Local Results: Nova Scotia Halifax Decided Participants Q3 Percent 26% Yes 64% Yes No 22% No Unsure 14% Results accurate to within +/-3.25%, 19 times out of 20 74% Results have been weighted to more accurately reflect population demographics
Q4 Percent Yes 54% 31% Yes No 25% No Unsure 21% 69% Results accurate to within +/-3.25%, 19 times out of 20 Results have been weighted to more accurately reflect population demographics
22 Local Results: Nova Scotia Sackville-Preston-Chezzetcook Decided Participants Q1 Percent 34% Yes Yes 41% 66% No No 21% Unsure 38% Results accurate to within +/-3.75%, 19 times out of 20
Q2
Percent 42% Yes Yes 41% 58% No No 21% Unsure 38% Results accurate to within +/-3.75%, 19 times out of 20
23 Local Results: Nova Scotia Sackville-Preston-Chezzetcook Decided Participants Q3 23% Percent Yes Yes 64% No No 19% 77% Unsure 17% Results accurate to within +/-3.75%, 19 times out of 20
Q4
Percent 42% Yes Yes 41% 58% No No 30% Unsure 28% Results accurate to within +/-3.75%, 19 times out of 20
24 Ontario-West Regional Results Decided Participants Q1 Percent 29% Yes 54% Yes No 22% No Unsure 24% 71% Results accurate to within +/-2.00%, 19 times out of 20 Results have been weighted to more accurately reflect population demographics
Q2 Percent 28% Yes 56% Yes No 22% No Unsure 22% 72% Results accurate to within +/-2.00%, 19 times out of 20 Results have been weighted to more accurately reflect population demographics
25 Ontario-West Regional Results Decided Participants Q3
Percent 21% Yes 70% Yes No 18% No Unsure 12% Results accurate to within +/-2.00%, 19 times out of 20 79% Results have been weighted to more accurately reflect population demographics
Q4 Percent 25% Yes 63% Yes No 21% No Unsure 16% Results accurate to within +/-2.00%, 19 times out of 20 75% Results have been weighted to more accurately reflect population demographics
26 Local Results: Ontario-West Hamilton East Stoney Creek Decided Participants Q1 Percent 33% Yes Yes 38% 67% No No 19% Unsure 43% Results accurate to within +/-4.00%, 19 times out of 20
Q2 Percent 34% Yes Yes 43% 66% No No 22% Unsure 35% Results accurate to within +/-4.00%, 19 times out of 20
27 Local Results: Ontario-West Hamilton East Stoney Creek Decided Participants Q3 23% Percent Yes Yes 61% No No 18% 77% Unsure 21% Results accurate to within +/-4.00%, 19 times out of 20
Q4 27% Percent Yes Yes 56% No No 20% 73% Unsure 23% Results accurate to within +/-4.00%, 19 times out of 20
28 Local Results: Ontario-West Kitchener Centre Decided Participants Q1 Percent 33% Yes Yes 40% 67% No No 20% Unsure 39% Results accurate to within +/-4.00%, 19 times out of 20
Q2 29% Percent Yes Yes 51% No No 21% 71% Unsure 28% Results accurate to within +/-4.00%, 19 times out of 20
29 Local Results: Ontario-West Kitchener Centre Decided Participants
Q3 18% Percent Yes Yes 67% No No 14% Unsure 19% 82% Results accurate to within +/-4.00%, 19 times out of 20
Q4 25% Percent Yes Yes 61% No No 20% 75% Unsure 19% Results accurate to within +/-4.00%, 19 times out of 20
30 Local Results: Ontario-West Burlington Decided Participants Q1 Percent 39% Yes Yes 38% 61% No No 24% Unsure 38% Results accurate to within +/-3.25%, 19 times out of 20
Q2 Percent 41% Yes Yes 42% 59% No No 29% Unsure 28% Results accurate to within +/-3.25%, 19 times out of 20
31 Local Results: Ontario West Burlington Decided Participants Q3 27% Percent Yes Yes 60% No No 22% 73% Unsure 18% Results accurate to within +/-3.25%, 19 times out of 20
Q4 Percent 37% Yes Yes 52% 63% No No 30% Unsure 17% Results accurate to within +/-3.25%, 19 times out of 20
32 Local Results: Ontario-West Hamilton West-Ancaster-Dundas Decided Participants Q1 Percent 37% Yes Yes 38% 63% No No 22% Unsure 39% Results accurate to within +/-3.25%, 19 times out of 20
Q2 Percent 39% Yes Yes 44% 61% No No 28% Unsure 27% Results accurate to within +/-3.25%, 19 times out of 20
33 Local Results: Ontario West Hamilton West-Ancaster-Dundas Decided Participants Q3 25% Percent Yes Yes 62% No No 21% 75% Unsure 17% Results accurate to within +/-3.25%, 19 times out of 20
Q4 Percent 33% Yes Yes 55% 67% No No 27% Unsure 18% Results accurate to within +/-3.25%, 19 times out of 20
34 Ontario-East Regional Results Decided Participants Q1 Percent 26% Yes 58% Yes No 21% No Unsure 22% 74% Results accurate to within +/-2.25%, 19 times out of 20 Results have been weighted to more accurately reflect population demographics
Q2 Percent 28% Yes 54% Yes No 21% No Unsure 25% 72% Results accurate to within +/-2.25%, 19 times out of 20 Results have been weighted to more accurately reflect population demographics
35 Ontario-East Regional Results Decided Participants Q3 Percent 28% Yes 59% Yes No 23% No Unsure 17% 72% Results accurate to within +/-2.25%, 19 times out of 20 Results have been weighted to more accurately reflect population demographics
Q4 Percent 29% Yes 62% Yes No 24% No Unsure 14% 71% Results accurate to within +/-2.25%, 19 times out of 20 Results have been weighted to more accurately reflect population demographics
36 Local Results: Ontario-East Hastings-Lennox-Addington Decided Participants Q1
Percent 24% Yes 53% Yes No 17% No Unsure 30% Results accurate to within +/-3.25%, 19 times out of 20 76% Results have been weighted to more accurately reflect population demographics
Q2 Percent 28% Yes 49% Yes No 19% No Unsure 33% 72% Results accurate to within +/-3.25%, 19 times out of 20 Results have been weighted to more accurately reflect population demographics
37 Local Results: Ontario-East Hastings-Lennox-Addington Decided Participants Q3 Percent Yes 51% 32% Yes No 24% No Unsure 25% 68% Results accurate to within +/-3.25%, 19 times out of 20 Results have been weighted to more accurately reflect population demographics
Q4 Percent 30% Yes 57% Yes No 24% No Unsure 20% 70% Results accurate to within +/-3.25%, 19 times out of 20 Results have been weighted to more accurately reflect population demographics
38 Local Results: Ontario-East Kingston Decided Participants Q1 Percent 28% Yes 61% Yes No 24% No Unsure 15% 72% Results accurate to within +/-3.25%, 19 times out of 20 Results have been weighted to more accurately reflect population demographics
Q2 Percent 28% Yes 58% Yes No 23% No Unsure 19% 72% Results accurate to within +/-3.25%, 19 times out of 20 Results have been weighted to more accurately reflect population demographics
39 Local Results: Ontario-East Kingston Decided Participants Q3 Percent 26% Yes 64% Yes No 23% No Unsure 13% 74% Results accurate to within +/-3.25%, 19 times out of 20 Results have been weighted to more accurately reflect population demographics
Q4 Percent 27% Yes 66% Yes No 24% No Unsure 10% 73% Results accurate to within +/-3.25%, 19 times out of 20 Results have been weighted to more accurately reflect population demographics
40 Ontario-Ottawa Regional Results Decided Participants Q1 Percent Yes 48% 39% Yes No 31% No Unsure 21% 61% Results accurate to within +/-2.75%, 19 times out of 20 Results have been weighted to more accurately reflect population demographics
Q2 Percent Yes 49% 41% Yes No 34% 59% No Unsure 17% Results accurate to within +/-2.75%, 19 times out of 20 Results have been weighted to more accurately reflect population demographics
41 Ontario-Ottawa Regional Results Decided Participants Q3 Percent Yes 59% 34% Yes No 30% No Unsure 11% 66% Results accurate to within +/-2.75%, 19 times out of 20 Results have been weighted to more accurately reflect population demographics
Q4 Percent Yes 54% 39% Yes No 35% No Unsure 12% 61% Results accurate to within +/-2.75%, 19 times out of 20 Results have been weighted to more accurately reflect population demographics
42 Local Results: Ontario-Ottawa Kanata-Carleton Decided Participants Q1 Percent 38% Yes Yes 42% 62% No No 26% Unsure 32% Results accurate to within +/-3.75%, 19 times out of 20
Q2 Percent Yes 47% Yes 41% 53% No No 37% Unsure 22% Results accurate to within +/-3.75%, 19 times out of 20
43 Local Results: Ontario-Ottawa Kanata-Carleton Decided Participants Q3 Percent 35% Yes Yes 55% 65% No No 29% Unsure 15% Results accurate to within +/-3.75%, 19 times out of 20
Q4
Percent 42% Yes Yes 49% 58% No No 36% Unsure 14% Results accurate to within +/-3.75%, 19 times out of 20
44 Local Results: Ontario-Ottawa Ottawa-West Nepean Decided Participants Q1 Percent 36% Yes Yes 42% 64% No No 24% Unsure 33% Results accurate to within +/-4.00%, 19 times out of 20
Q2
Percent 45% Yes Yes 42% 55% No No 34% Unsure 24% Results accurate to within +/-4.00%, 19 times out of 20
45 Local Results: Ontario-Ottawa Ottawa-West Nepean Decided Participants Q3 Percent 31% Yes Yes 58% No No 26% 69% Unsure 16% Results accurate to within +/-4.00%, 19 times out of 20
Q4
Percent 43% Yes Yes 48% 57% No No 36% Unsure 15% Results accurate to within +/-4.00%, 19 times out of 20
46 Ontario-Peterborough Regional Results Decided Participants Q1 Percent Yes 53% 34% Yes No 27% No Unsure 19% 66% Results accurate to within +/-2.50%, 19 times out of 20 Results have been weighted to more accurately reflect population demographics
Q2 Percent Yes 52% 39% Yes No 33% No Unsure 15% 61% Results accurate to within +/-2.50%, 19 times out of 20 Results have been weighted to more accurately reflect population demographics
47 Ontario-Peterborough Regional Results Decided Participants Q3 Percent 28% Yes 62% Yes No 24% No Unsure 14% 72% Results accurate to within +/-2.50%, 19 times out of 20 Results have been weighted to more accurately reflect population demographics
Q4 Percent Yes 57% 34% Yes No 29% No Unsure 15% 66% Results accurate to within +/-2.50%, 19 times out of 20 Results have been weighted to more accurately reflect population demographics
48 Local Results: Ontario-Peterborough Northumberland-Peterborough South Decided Participants
Q1 Percent 32% Yes Yes 42% No No 20% 68% Unsure 38% Results accurate to within +/-3.75%, 19 times out of 20
Q2 Percent 34% Yes Yes 48% 66% No No 25% Unsure 27% Results accurate to within +/-3.75%, 19 times out of 20
49 Local Results: Ontario-Peterborough Northumberland-Peterborough South Decided Participants
Q3 22% Percent Yes Yes 65% No No 18% 78% Unsure 17% Results accurate to within +/-3.75%, 19 times out of 20
Q4 27% Percent Yes Yes 59% No No 22% 73% Unsure 18% Results accurate to within +/-3.75%, 19 times out of 20
50 Local Results: Ontario-Peterborough Peterborough-Kawartha Decided Participants Q1 Percent 28% Yes 59% Yes No 23% No Unsure 17% 72% Results accurate to within +/-3.25%, 19 times out of 20 Results have been weighted to more accurately reflect population demographics
Q2 Percent Yes 53% 34% Yes No 27% No Unsure 20% 66% Results accurate to within +/-3.25%, 19 times out of 20 Results have been weighted to more accurately reflect population demographics
51 Local Results: Ontario-Peterborough Peterborough-Kawartha Decided Participants Q3
Percent 21% Yes 68% Yes No 18% No Unsure 14% Results accurate to within +/-3.25%, 19 times out of 20 79% Results have been weighted to more accurately reflect population demographics
Q4 Percent 29% Yes 63% Yes No 26% No Unsure 11% 71% Results accurate to within +/-3.25%, 19 times out of 20 Results have been weighted to more accurately reflect population demographics
52 Ontario-GTA Regional Results Decided Participants Q1 Percent Yes 53% 31% Yes No 23% No Unsure 24% 69% Results accurate to within +/-2.00%, 19 times out of 20 Results have been weighted to more accurately reflect population demographics
Q2 Percent Yes 51% 36% Yes No 29% No Unsure 20% 64% Results accurate to within +/-2.00%, 19 times out of 20 Results have been weighted to more accurately reflect population demographics
53 Ontario-GTA Regional Results Decided Participants Q3 Percent 26% Yes 63% Yes No 23% No Unsure 14% 74% Results accurate to within +/-2.00%, 19 times out of 20 Results have been weighted to more accurately reflect population demographics
Q4 Percent 29% Yes 60% Yes No 25% No Unsure 16% 71% Results accurate to within +/-2.00%, 19 times out of 20 Results have been weighted to more accurately reflect population demographics
54 Local Results: Ontario-GTA Pickering Uxbridge Decided Participants Q1 Percent 37% Yes Yes 38% 63% No No 22% Unsure 40% Results accurate to within +/-3.75%, 19 times out of 20
Q2
Percent 45% Yes Yes 39% 55% No No 32% Unsure 29% Results accurate to within +/-3.75%, 19 times out of 20
55 Local Results: Ontario-GTA Pickering Uxbridge Decided Participants Q3 26% Percent Yes Yes 62% No No 22% 74% Unsure 15% Results accurate to within +/-3.75%, 19 times out of 20
Q4 Percent 34% Yes Yes 53% 66% No No 27% Unsure 21% Results accurate to within +/-3.75%, 19 times out of 20
56 Local Results: Ontario-GTA Davenport Decided Participants Q1 28% Percent Yes Yes 47% No No 19% 72% Unsure 35% Results accurate to within +/-3.50%, 19 times out of 20
Q2 Percent 31% Yes Yes 48% No No 22% 69% Unsure 30% Results accurate to within +/-3.50%, 19 times out of 20
57 Local Results: Ontario-GTA Davenport Decided Participants Q3 20% Percent Yes Yes 64% No No 16% 80% Unsure 20% Results accurate to within +/-3.50%, 19 times out of 20
Q4 23% Percent Yes Yes 62% No No 18% 77% Unsure 20% Results accurate to within +/-3.50%, 19 times out of 20
58 Local Results: Ontario-GTA Danforth Decided Participants Q1 Percent 31% Yes Yes 49% No No 22% 69% Unsure 29% Results accurate to within +/-3.50%, 19 times out of 20
Q2 30% Percent Yes Yes 53% No No 23% 70% Unsure 23% Results accurate to within +/-3.50%, 19 times out of 20
59 Local Results: Ontario-GTA Danforth Decided Participants Q3 22% Percent Yes Yes 67% No No 18% 78% Unsure 15% Results accurate to within +/-3.50%, 19 times out of 20
Q4 27% Percent Yes Yes 61% No No 23% 73% Unsure 16% Results accurate to within +/-3.50%, 19 times out of 20
60 Local Results: Ontario-GTA University-Rosedale Decided Participants Q1 Percent 38% Yes Yes 45% 62% No No 27% Unsure 29% Results accurate to within +/-3.50%, 19 times out of 20
Q2 Percent 37% Yes Yes 49% 63% No No 28% Unsure 23% Results accurate to within +/-3.50%, 19 times out of 20
61 Local Results: Ontario-GTA University-Rosedale Decided Participants Q3 28% Percent Yes Yes 59% No No 23% 72% Unsure 17% Results accurate to within +/-3.50%, 19 times out of 20
Q4 Percent 35% Yes Yes 53% 65% No No 28% Unsure 19% Results accurate to within +/-3.50%, 19 times out of 20
62 Local Results Manitoba - Winnipeg Centre Decided Participants Q1
Percent 43% Yes Yes 35% 57% No No 26% Unsure 39% Results accurate to within +/-4.00%, 19 times out of 20
Q2 Percent 36% Yes Yes 42% 64% No No 24% Unsure 34% Results accurate to within +/-4.00%, 19 times out of 20
63 Local Results Manitoba - Winnipeg Centre Decided Participants Q3 25% Percent Yes Yes 56% No No 18% 75% Unsure 26% Results accurate to within +/-4.00%, 19 times out of 20
Q4 Percent 31% Yes Yes 51% No No 23% 69% Unsure 26% Results accurate to within +/-4.00%, 19 times out of 20
64 Local Results PEI-Charlottetown Decided Participants Q1 Percent 40% Yes Yes 40% 60% No No 27% Unsure 33% Results accurate to within +/-4.25%, 19 times out of 20
Q2
Percent 42% Yes Yes 46% 58% No No 34% Unsure 21% Results accurate to within +/-4.25%, 19 times out of 20
65 Local Results PEI-Charlottetown Decided Participants Q3 Percent 32% Yes Yes 60% 68% No No 29% Unsure 12% Results accurate to within +/-4.25%, 19 times out of 20
Q4 Percent 36% Yes Yes 56% 64% No No 31% Unsure 13% Results accurate to within +/-4.25%, 19 times out of 20
66 National Results By Age
Question 1 Yes No Unsure Total Under 20 59.6% 20.6% 19.7% 100.0% 20-29 43.0% 36.2% 20.8% 100.0% 30-39 53.7% 24.1% 22.2% 100.0% 40-49 55.6% 20.9% 23.5% 100.0% 50-59 52.3% 21.3% 26.5% 100.0% 60-69 51.6% 21.3% 27.1% 100.0% 70 and Over 38.5% 24.2% 37.3% 100.0% Results accurate to within +/-1.00%, 19 times out of 20 Results have been weighted to more accurately reflect population demographics
Question 2 Yes No Unsure Total Under 20 55.3% 25.9% 18.9% 100.0% 20-29 40.4% 41.1% 18.5% 100.0% 30-39 54.2% 25.4% 20.4% 100.0% 40-49 56.2% 24.3% 19.5% 100.0% 50-59 53.3% 23.7% 23.1% 100.0% 60-69 52.2% 25.1% 22.7% 100.0% 70 and Over 41.7% 29.2% 29.1% 100.0% Results accurate to within +/-1.00%, 19 times out of 20 Results have been weighted to more accurately reflect population demographics
67 National Results By Age
Question 3 Yes No Unsure Total Under 20 61.4% 23.7% 14.9% 100.0% 20-29 49.1% 37.4% 13.6% 100.0% 30-39 63.1% 20.7% 16.2% 100.0% 40-49 67.8% 19.3% 12.9% 100.0% 50-59 66.3% 19.5% 14.2% 100.0% 60-69 68.1% 17.9% 13.9% 100.0% 70 and Over 60.0% 20.3% 19.7% 100.0% Results accurate to within +/-1.00%, 19 times out of 20 Results have been weighted to more accurately reflect population demographics
Question 4 Yes No Unsure Total Under 20 62.3% 21.5% 16.2% 100.0% 20-29 46.0% 41.1% 12.8% 100.0% 30-39 57.0% 23.5% 19.5% 100.0% 40-49 60.3% 24.2% 15.5% 100.0% 50-59 60.8% 23.7% 15.4% 100.0% 60-69 59.5% 24.6% 15.9% 100.0% 70 and Over 51.7% 27.2% 21.1% 100.0% Results accurate to within +/-1.00%, 19 times out of 20 Results have been weighted to more accurately reflect population demographics
68 National Results By Gender
Question 1 Yes No Unsure Total Female 48.8% 16.6% 34.7% 100.0% Male 47.9% 30.7% 21.4% 100.0% Neither 32.1% 22.2% 45.6% 100.0% Results accurate to within +/-1.00%, 19 times out of 20 Results have been weighted to more accurately reflect population demographics
Question 2 Yes No Unsure Total Female 50.7% 20.1% 29.1% 100.0% Male 48.8% 34.5% 16.7% 100.0% Neither 29.1% 30.0% 40.8% 100.0% Results accurate to within +/-1.00%, 19 times out of 20 Results have been weighted to more accurately reflect population demographics
69 National Results By Gender
Question 3 Yes No Unsure Total Female 68.4% 13.7% 17.9% 100.0% Male 60.7% 27.4% 11.9% 100.0% Neither 34.8% 25.8% 39.3% 100.0% Results accurate to within +/-1.00%, 19 times out of 20 Results have been weighted to more accurately reflect population demographics
Question 4 Yes No Unsure Total Female 59.4% 19.5% 21.1% 100.0% Male 54.9% 33.1% 11.9% 100.0% Neither 36.3% 27.3% 36.3% 100.0% Results accurate to within +/-1.00%, 19 times out of 20 Results have been weighted to more accurately reflect population demographics
70 National Results By Age By Gender
Question 1 Yes No Unsure Total Under 20 Female 62.6% 16.8% 20.6% 100.0% Male 58.1% 24.7% 17.2% 100.0% Neither 53.6% 21.4% 25.0% 100.0% 20-29 Female 43.9% 28.6% 27.6% 100.0% Male 41.6% 42.3% 16.1% 100.0% Neither 50.0% 27.8% 22.2% 100.0% 30-39 Female 59.9% 16.6% 23.6% 100.0% Male 53.6% 32.1% 14.2% 100.0% Neither 24.6% 23.1% 52.3% 100.0% 40-49 Female 55.5% 16.1% 28.4% 100.0% Male 56.5% 25.9% 17.6% 100.0% Neither 40.0% 23.3% 36.7% 100.0% 50-59 Female 54.0% 15.0% 30.9% 100.0% Male 50.6% 28.7% 20.7% 100.0% Neither 45.1% 19.6% 35.3% 100.0% 60-69 Female 53.6% 15.3% 31.1% 100.0% Male 49.7% 29.8% 20.5% 100.0% Neither 26.2% 19.0% 54.8% 100.0% 70 and Over Female 38.2% 18.0% 43.9% 100.0% Male 40.2% 33.4% 26.5% 100.0% Neither 21.2% 23.2% 55.6% 100.0% Results accurate to within +/-1.00%, 19 times out of 20 Results have been weighted to more accurately reflect population demographics
71 National Results By Age By Gender
Question 2 Yes No Unsure Total Under 20 Female 56.1% 24.3% 19.6% 100.0% Male 55.9% 26.9% 17.2% 100.0% Neither 50.0% 28.6% 21.4% 100.0% 20-29 Female 40.8% 32.7% 26.5% 100.0% Male 42.3% 47.7% 10.1% 100.0% Neither 22.2% 33.3% 44.4% 100.0% 30-39 Female 62.1% 16.9% 21.0% 100.0% Male 52.3% 34.8% 12.9% 100.0% Neither 24.6% 23.1% 52.3% 100.0% 40-49 Female 61.0% 17.7% 21.4% 100.0% Male 52.5% 30.4% 17.0% 100.0% Neither 30.0% 43.3% 26.7% 100.0% 50-59 Female 54.3% 18.1% 27.6% 100.0% Male 52.4% 30.1% 17.5% 100.0% Neither 47.1% 27.5% 25.5% 100.0% 60-69 Female 53.4% 19.5% 27.1% 100.0% Male 51.0% 33.1% 15.8% 100.0% Neither 38.1% 21.4% 40.5% 100.0% 70 and Over Female 42.4% 22.1% 35.5% 100.0% Male 42.5% 39.2% 18.3% 100.0% Neither 14.1% 35.4% 50.5% 100.0% Results accurate to within +/-1.00%, 19 times out of 20 Results have been weighted to more accurately reflect population demographics
72 National Results By Age By Gender
Question 3 Yes No Unsure Total Under 20 Female 64.5% 19.6% 15.9% 100.0% Male 63.4% 25.8% 10.8% 100.0% Neither 42.9% 32.1% 25.0% 100.0% 20-29 Female 55.1% 28.6% 16.3% 100.0% Male 47.7% 44.3% 8.1% 100.0% Neither 27.8% 27.8% 44.4% 100.0% 30-39 Female 72.6% 14.0% 13.4% 100.0% Male 62.6% 27.2% 10.3% 100.0% Neither 20.0% 23.1% 56.9% 100.0% 40-49 Female 71.6% 13.6% 14.8% 100.0% Male 65.8% 24.5% 9.8% 100.0% Neither 30.0% 36.7% 33.3% 100.0% 50-59 Female 69.5% 14.2% 16.2% 100.0% Male 63.3% 25.4% 11.3% 100.0% Neither 52.9% 23.5% 23.5% 100.0% 60-69 Female 72.7% 11.9% 15.4% 100.0% Male 63.2% 25.9% 10.9% 100.0% Neither 31.0% 28.6% 40.5% 100.0% 70 and Over Female 63.9% 13.8% 22.3% 100.0% Male 55.8% 29.5% 14.7% 100.0% Neither 37.4% 22.2% 40.4% 100.0% Results accurate to within +/-1.00%, 19 times out of 20 Results have been weighted to more accurately reflect population demographics
73 National Results By Age By Gender
Question 4 Yes No Unsure Total Under 20 Female 64.5% 16.8% 18.7% 100.0% Male 63.4% 24.7% 11.8% 100.0% Neither 50.0% 28.6% 21.4% 100.0% 20-29 Female 49.0% 29.6% 21.4% 100.0% Male 45.0% 49.0% 6.0% 100.0% Neither 38.9% 38.9% 22.2% 100.0% 30-39 Female 64.0% 16.6% 19.4% 100.0% Male 57.6% 31.8% 10.6% 100.0% Neither 20.0% 18.5% 61.5% 100.0% 40-49 Female 61.6% 19.2% 19.2% 100.0% Male 59.8% 29.0% 11.2% 100.0% Neither 43.3% 33.3% 23.3% 100.0% 50-59 Female 62.3% 18.2% 19.5% 100.0% Male 59.0% 30.4% 10.5% 100.0% Neither 60.8% 21.6% 17.6% 100.0% 60-69 Female 62.9% 18.2% 18.8% 100.0% Male 55.5% 33.2% 11.3% 100.0% Neither 35.7% 33.3% 31.0% 100.0% 70 and Over Female 54.1% 21.3% 24.6% 100.0% Male 49.8% 35.7% 14.6% 100.0% Neither 28.3% 29.3% 42.4% 100.0% Results accurate to within +/-1.00%, 19 times out of 20 Results have been weighted to more accurately reflect population demographics
74 National Results: By Age By Gender Question 1 Yes No Unsure Under 20 Female 49.3% 38.3% 48.9% Male 39.7% 48.9% 35.6% Neither 11.0% 12.8% 15.6% Total 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 20-29 Female 37.7% 29.2% 49.1% Male 54.4% 65.6% 43.6% Neither 7.9% 5.2% 7.3% Total 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 30-39 Female 51.4% 31.7% 49.0% Male 44.3% 59.1% 28.5% Neither 4.4% 9.1% 22.5% Total 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 40-49 Female 50.2% 38.8% 60.7% Male 47.9% 58.4% 35.3% Neither 1.8% 2.9% 4.0% Total 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 50-59 Female 54.9% 37.5% 62.0% Male 43.1% 60.3% 34.8% Neither 2.0% 2.2% 3.1% Total 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 60-69 Female 59.4% 41.0% 65.7% Male 39.8% 57.7% 31.3% Neither 0.8% 1.3% 3.0% Total 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 70 and Over Female 57.3% 42.9% 67.9% Male 41.2% 54.5% 28.0% Neither 1.5% 2.6% 4.0% Total 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% Results accurate to within +/-1.00%, 19 times out of 20 Results have been weighted to more accurately reflect population demographics 75 National Results: By Age By Gender Question 2 Yes No Unsure Under 20 Female 47.6% 44.1% 48.8% Male 41.3% 42.4% 37.2% Neither 11.1% 13.6% 14.0% Total 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 20-29 Female 37.4% 29.4% 53.1% Male 58.9% 65.1% 30.6% Neither 3.7% 5.5% 16.3% Total 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 30-39 Female 52.8% 30.6% 47.5% Male 42.8% 60.7% 28.1% Neither 4.3% 8.7% 24.5% Total 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 40-49 Female 54.6% 36.5% 55.3% Male 44.1% 58.9% 41.2% Neither 1.4% 4.6% 3.5% Total 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 50-59 Female 54.1% 40.5% 63.6% Male 43.9% 56.7% 33.8% Neither 2.1% 2.7% 2.6% Total 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 60-69 Female 58.5% 44.3% 68.4% Male 40.4% 54.5% 28.9% Neither 1.1% 1.3% 2.7% Total 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 70 and Over Female 58.8% 43.7% 70.5% Male 40.3% 53.0% 24.9% Neither 0.9% 3.3% 4.7% Total 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% Results accurate to within +/-1.00%, 19 times out of 20 Results have been weighted to more accurately reflect population demographics 76 National Results: By Age By Gender Question 3 Yes No Unsure Under 20 Female 49.3% 38.9% 50.0% Male 42.1% 44.4% 29.4% Neither 8.6% 16.7% 20.6% Total 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 20-29 Female 41.5% 28.3% 44.4% Male 54.6% 66.7% 33.3% Neither 3.8% 5.1% 22.2% Total 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 30-39 Female 53.0% 31.2% 38.2% Male 44.0% 58.2% 28.2% Neither 3.0% 10.6% 33.6% Total 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 40-49 Female 53.1% 35.4% 57.6% Male 45.7% 59.7% 35.8% Neither 1.1% 4.9% 6.6% Total 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 50-59 Female 55.6% 38.9% 60.7% Male 42.5% 58.3% 35.4% Neither 1.9% 2.8% 3.9% Total 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 60-69 Female 61.0% 37.9% 63.3% Male 38.3% 59.7% 32.4% Neither 0.7% 2.4% 4.3% Total 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 70 and Over Female 61.5% 39.5% 65.1% Male 36.8% 57.5% 29.3% Neither 1.7% 3.0% 5.5% Total 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% Results accurate to within +/-1.00%, 19 times out of 20 Results have been weighted to more accurately reflect population demographics 77 National Results: By Age By Gender Question 4 Yes No Unsure Under 20 Female 48.6% 36.7% 54.1% Male 41.5% 46.9% 29.7% Neither 9.9% 16.3% 16.2% Total 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 20-29 Female 39.3% 26.6% 61.8% Male 54.9% 67.0% 26.5% Neither 5.7% 6.4% 11.8% Total 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 30-39 Female 51.8% 32.5% 45.9% Male 44.8% 60.0% 24.1% Neither 3.4% 7.5% 30.1% Total 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 40-49 Female 51.4% 39.9% 62.1% Male 46.7% 56.5% 34.1% Neither 1.8% 3.5% 3.8% Total 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 50-59 Female 54.4% 40.8% 66.9% Male 43.3% 57.1% 30.4% Neither 2.4% 2.1% 2.7% Total 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 60-69 Female 60.5% 42.3% 67.8% Male 38.6% 55.7% 29.3% Neither 0.9% 2.0% 2.9% Total 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 70 and Over Female 60.5% 45.3% 67.3% Male 38.0% 51.8% 27.3% Neither 1.5% 2.9% 5.4% Total 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% Results accurate to within +/-1.00%, 19 times out of 20 Results have been weighted to more accurately reflect population demographics 78 Appendices
Due to data collection difficulties, the sample size for the riding of Spadina-Fort York did not reach a predetermined threshold and was therefore not included in the general report. The results that are included in Appendix A are for exploratory purposes only.
79 Appendix A Spadina-Fort York Decided Participants Question 1: Spadina-Fort York
Percent 32% Yes Yes 46% No No 21% 68% Unsure 33% Results accurate to within +/-6.00%, 19 times out of 20
Question 2: Spadina-Fort York
Percent 41% Yes Yes 44% 59% No No 30% Unsure 26% Results accurate to within +/-6.00%, 19 times out of 20
80 Appendix A Spadina-Fort York Decided Participants Question 3: Spadina-Fort York 26% Percent Yes Yes 62% No No 22% 74% Unsure 16% Results accurate to within +/-6.00%, 19 times out of 20
Question 4: Spadina-Fort York
Percent 35% Yes Yes 56% No No 31% 65% Unsure 14% Results accurate to within +/-6.00%, 19 times out of 20
81 Appendix B Script:
Hello, this is Direct Pulse Public Research calling on behalf of Fair Vote Canada, a local citizens group. We are conducting a short survey regarding attitudes towards Canada’s voting system. If you would like to contact us we can be reached at 1-855-810-5796 and at [email protected].
Question 1 Canada’s current voting system is called first-past-the-post. In this system, a party can have 39% of the total votes across Canada, but if they win more than half of the ridings, that party has the power to pass legislation on its own. This means they do not have to work with other Parties to pass legislation. Would you prefer a system where the percentage of seats a party has matches the percentage of the votes that they receive? If yes, press 1; No, press 2; If you are unsure, press 3.
Question 2 An alternative to our current system would be a made-in-Canada form of proportional representation, in which a party with 25% of the vote would receive 25% of the seats in the House of Commons, while maintaining a measure of local representation. Would you prefer that Canada adopt this kind of system? If yes, press 1; No, press 2; If you are unsure, press 3.
82 Appendix B Script:
Question 3 In a proportional system, every possible vote will count towards electing someone from the party you support. Under our current first-past-the-post system, if you vote for a candidate that does not win, your vote will not elect a representative. Are you in favour of a system that would make every possible vote count toward representation? If yes, press 1; No, press 2; If you are unsure, press 3.
Question 4 The Liberal Party campaigned on a promise to end first-past-the-post and make every vote count in time for the next election. After consultations with the public and experts, the all-party committee on electoral reform recommended proportional representation. The Liberals have now chosen to break their promise of electoral reform. Do you want your Member of Parliament, ______to advocate in the House of Commons that the Liberal government keep its promise, and change our system to proportional representation in time for the next election? If yes, press 1; No, press 2; If you are unsure, press 3.
83 Appendix B Script:
Question 5 Which of the following age groups best describe you? If.. If you are under the age of 20, press 1; If you are 21, to 29, press 2; 30 to 39, press 3; 40 to 49, press 4; 50 to 59, press 5; 60 to 69, press 6; If you are over the age of 70, press 7.
Question 6 Which of the following genders best describes you? If female, press 1; Male, press 2; If neither male nor female, press 3.
Thank you. This has been Direct Pulse Public Research calling on behalf of Fair vote Canada. If you would like to contact us we can be reached at 1-855-810- 5796 and at [email protected]. If you would like more information please visit FairVote.ca. Thank you.
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