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Hans Robert A. Hellsmark Ufligtefraiepaeo Aiidboasi H Uoenuin Union European the in Biomass Ofgasified Phase Formative the Unfolding

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Hans Robert A. Hellsmark Ufligtefraiepaeo Aiidboasi H Uoenuin Union European the in Biomass Ofgasified Phase Formative the Unfolding chalmers university of technology se-412 96 Gothenburg, Sweden Telephone: +46-(0)31 772 10 00 www.chalmers.se hans robert a. hellsmark hellsmark a. robert hans Unfolding the formative phase ofgasified biomass in the European Union Unfolding the formative phase of gasified biomass in the European Union The role of system builders in realising the potential of second-generation transportation fuels from biomass hans robert a. hellsmark Environmental System Analysis Department of Energy and Environment 2011 chalmers university of technology Göteborg, Sweden 2011 THESIS FOR THE DEGREE OF DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY Unfolding the formative phase of gasified biomass in the European Union ― The role of system builders in realising the potential of second-generation transportation fuels from biomass Hans Robert A. Hellsmark Environmental System Analysis Department of Energy and Environment CHALMERS UNIVERSITY OF TECHNOLOGY Göteborg, Sweden 2010 UNFOLDING THE FORMATIVE PHASE OF GASIFIED BIOMASS IN THE EUROPEAN UNION The role of system builders in realising the potential of second-generation transportation fuels from biomass Hans Robert A. Hellsmark Doktorsavhandlingar vid Chalmers tekniska högskola Ny serie nr 3159 ISSN 0346-718X ISBN 978-91-7385-478-8 © Hans Robert A. Hellsmark, 2010. Environmental System Analysis Department of Energy and Environment Chalmers University of Technology SE-412 96 Göteborg Sweden Telephone + 46 (0)31-772 1000 URL: http://www.chalmers.se/ee Chalmers Reproservice Göteborg, Sweden 2010 ABSTRACT In an era of climate change, the process of and time frame for fostering new industries with the capacity of being innovative and able to diffuse a wide range of renewable energy technologies on a large scale has become a pressing issue. In the midst of the creation of such industries are the system builders―without such actors, new technologies and industries would not emerge. In this thesis, a novel conceptualisation of system builders is presented from a technological innovation system (TIS) perspective. The focus is on system builders with the intention of realising the potential of biomass gasification for the production of second-generation transportation fuels and other chemicals. The empirical work covers the historical development of biomass gasification in four countries―Austria, Germany, Sweden, and Finland―leading up to the nine most prominent technology development projects currently in Europe. This thesis analyses: a) who act as system builders in the different national contexts; b) how they learn and enable the emergence of the new system; and c) the limits to their capacity in creating the new and embryonic industry structures. With these insights, policymakers may d) set more realistic goals with respect to future targets and design policy interventions that address the actual system weaknesses of the emerging TIS. It is suggested that second-generation fuels from biomass can only play a very limited role in the fuel market until 2020 at the earliest. For realising the large but long- term potential of the technology, actions must now be taken to shift some of the risks for investors to society at large by funding demonstrations and forming initial markets for fuels that are significantly more expensive than conventional alternatives. Without such markets, the system builders will have great difficulties attracting further actors with complementary competencies, as well as the additional resources necessary to resolve the remaining technical uncertainties and take the required steps towards commercial-scale plants. Keywords: biomass gasification, second-generation transportation fuels, technical change, system builders, technological innovation systems, technology policy. OTHER PUBLICATIONS This thesis consists of the book presented here. However, without the insights made when writing other publications, it would not have been possible to write this in the first place. I would therefore like to highlight these previous publications: • Hellsmark, H., Jacobsson, S., 2010. Realising the potential of gasified biomass in the European Union — Policy challenges in moving from demonstration plants to large- scale diffusion. Submitted to Energy Policy. • Hellsmark, H., Jacobsson, S., 2009. Opportunities for and limits to Academics as System builders — The case of realizing the potential of gasified biomass in Austria. Energy Policy 37, 5597-5611. • Hellsmark, H., 2005. The Co-Evolution of Institutions, Organisations and Renewable Energy Technologies. Licentiate thesis, Department of Technology Management and Economics, Chalmers University of Technology, Gothenburg. • Jacob, M., Lundqvist, M., Hellsmark, H., 2003. Entrepreneurial transformations in the Swedish University system: the case of Chalmers University of Technology. Research Policy 32, 1555-1568. Evelien Eden & Selma ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS This thesis is about the role of system builders in the emergence of an industry with the capacity to realise the potential of second-generation fuels. It has been demonstrated how these system builders are dependent on being embedded in a rich, heterogeneous and supportive structure. Their pure survival has, at times, been dependent on the existence of other actors who are ready to save them from ruin. Over the past four decades, these system builders have been able learn, grow stronger and create an embryonic industry structure. If appropriate policymeasures are taken, some of them may even be able to realise their intentions and the large-scale diffusion of second-generation fuels may begin by 2020. Although not a system builder, I can strongly identify and relate based on my personal experience from writing this thesis. For completing this thesis, I have also been dependent on being embedded in a rich and heterogeneous structure. Without the encompassing support from my supervisor, colleagues, financiers, respondents, friends, and family, this thesis would never have been possible to write. When some days were grey and the road ahead seemed endless, you have inspired me and provided the right reasons to stay focused. For that I am deeply grateful! I would like to start by directing my deepest respect and gratitude to Staffan Jacobsson. Staffan has a kind heart and a sharp analytical mind. For me, he has been the best imaginable supervisor and friend. He has been present throughout all aspects of the research process: taking part in collecting research material, discussing observations and, not the least, providing thousands of detailed and insightful comments on drafts from the first to the final day of writing. He has also co-authored two papers on the topic of realising the potential of gasified biomass (Hellsmark and Jacobsson, 2009, 2010). Staffan has always encouraged me to follow through with my own ideas, while keeping me on the right course when in danger of being sidetracked. All of his efforts have greatly contributed towards the final version of this thesis. I would also like to thank past and present colleagues and friends at Environmental System Analysis. Being part of a multidisciplinary research group has been truly inspirational. There is no room to thank everyone, but I would like to direct a special thanks to Ann-Marie Tillman for your support and for being a good leader. I would like to thank Björn Sandén and Eugenia Perez for inspirational and valuable discussions, and for stepping into my room to see how I was doing from time to time. I would also like to thank Birger Löfgren for being a great problemsolver and roommate, and Kathrine Jahnberg for her administrative support. Special thanks go to the Swedish Energy Agency and Göteborg Energy. They have not only financed this work, but also showed an active interest and provided me with ample opportunities to discuss it with both policymakers and practitioners in their respective organisations. I would like to thank the Adlerbertska and J. Gust. Richert research foundations for additional financial support. This thesis would not have been possible to write without everyone that has, most generously, taken their time to explain all aspects of gasification and their efforts in realising the knowledge field. Many of you also took the time to comment on earlier drafts of this thesis for which I am deeply grateful. I would like to direct a special thanks to Christopher Higman who provided detailed comments on Chapter III. Useful comments were also received from Magnus Holmén, two anonymous reviewers and participants at the DIME International Conference on “Innovation, sustainability and policy’” 11–13 September 2008, GREThA, University Montesquieu Bordeaux IV, France. Of course, the interpretations of the events in this thesis are mine, as well as the responsibility for potential errors. Not the least, I would like to thank my family. Without the love and support from my wife, Evelien, this thesis could not have been written. I would also direct thanks to my mother for always reaching out a helping hand. Eden and Selma, you are the most wonderful children a father could hope for. Bagaregården, 2010-11-28 TABLE OF CONTENTS Part I –Setting the scene ................................................................................. 1 Chapter I – Introduction ...................................................................................................... 1 1.1 Empirical points of departure .......................................................................................... 3 1.2 Analytical points of departure .........................................................................................
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