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Menu of Indicators to Measure the Reverberating Effects on Civilians from the Use of Explosive Weapons in Populated Areas

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Menu of Indicators to Measure the Reverberating Effects on Civilians from the Use of Explosive Weapons in Populated Areas REFERENCE FRAMEWORK: MENU OF INDICATORS TO MEASURE THE REVERBERATING EFFECTS ON CIVILIANS FROM THE USE OF EXPLOSIVE WEAPONS IN POPULATED AREAS CHRISTINA WILLE & ALFREDO MALARET BALDO VERSION 1 ABOUT UNIDIR This reference framework should be considered a working document subject to changes, The United Nations Institute for Disarmament Research (UNIDIR) is a voluntarily additions, editions and corrections. The authors may revise and correct the text, without funded, autonomous institute within the United Nations. One of the few policy announcing the edits or issuing a formal erratum. As such, users are encouraged to use the most institutes worldwide focusing on disarmament, UNIDIR generates knowledge and updated version of this research framework, as posted on the unidir.org site. promotes dialogue and action on disarmament and security. Based in Geneva, UNIDIR UNIDIR welcomes and encourages all feedback on improving the present menu of indicators and assists the international community to develop the practical, innovative ideas needed building on it for future iterations. This is a UNIDIR Tool, designed to contribute to ongoing efforts to find solutions to critical security problems. to protect civilians in conflict and attain the Sustainable Development Goals. ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS Please share comments and feedback with [email protected]. Support from UNIDIR core funders provides the foundation for all the Institute’s unidir.org | © UNIDIR 2020 activities. This research area of the Conventional Arms Programme is supported by For best viewing: go to View > Page Display > Two Page View the Government of Germany. CONTRIBUTORS This research framework recognizes the important work of the International Committee of the Red Cross, Insecurity Insight, the Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights, the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs, the United Nations Office for Disarmament Affairs, and the World Health Organization, on which this product is grounded. This research framework also owes gratitude to the technical experts who helped review it, namely, Alma Al Osta, Doug Weir, Eirini Giorgou, Grace Steffan, Hana Salama, Helen Buck, Hyo-Jeong Kim, Iain Overton, Jerome Marston, John Borrie, Karl Blanchet, Katherine Prizeman, Laura Boillot, Linsey Cottrell, Maciej Polkowski, Marika Tsolakis, Michael Spies, Michael Talhami, Natalie Briggs, Norah Niland, Rafael Van den Bergh, Roger Lane, Simon Bagshaw, Sonia Müller-Rappard and numerous serving officials who wish to remain anonymous. The authors also thank the UNIDIR staff who supported and guided this research, in particular Renata Dwan, Himayu Shiotani, and Eric Schulz. NOTE The designations employed and the presentation of the material in this publication do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the Secretariat of the United Nations concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area, or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries. The views expressed in the publication are the sole responsibility of the individual authors. They do not necessary reflect the views or opinions of the United Nations, UNIDIR, its staff members or sponsors. ii UNIDIR RESEARCH FRAMEWORK REVERBERATING EFFECTS ON CIVILIANS FROM THE USE OF EXPLOSIVE WEAPONS IN POPULATED AREAS iii TABLE OF CONTENTS ABOUT THE AUTHORS SECTION 1 1 Introduction Christina Wille is the director of Insecurity Insight, an association of experts dedicated to improving data on living and working in dangerous SECTION 2 environments. Insecurity Insight monitors threats and violence affecting 9 Methodological considerations in documenting and the aid sector, health, education and protection. Christina serves on the measuring the reverberating effects of explosive weapons use Steering Committee of the Safeguarding Health in Conflict Coalition and is a consortium member of the Researching the Impact of Attacks SECTION 3 on Healthcare project. Between 2003 and 2007, she worked as a senior researcher at the Small Arms Survey. Christina has carried out numerous impact 17 Tools to measure the reverberating evaluations of small arms programmes in Africa for the European Commission and bilateral donors. effects of explosive weapons in populated areas She was educated in Cambridge and Durham in the United Kingdom following her schooling in 20 3.1. Measuring civilian deaths and injuries from explosive weapons Germany. 20 SDG 16 Peace, justice and strong institutions 26 3.2. Measuring the impact chain of explosive weapons use on civilian well-being 26 Alfredo Malaret Baldo is a researcher with UNIDIR’s Conventional Arms SDG 11 Sustainable cities and communities Programme. He coordinates the Urban Violence research portfolio. Alfredo 38 SDG 3 Good health and well-being specializes in public policy analysis, armed violence in urban environments 62 SDG 4 Inclusive quality education, lifelong learning opportunities for all reduction strategies, and linkages between security and development efforts. Alfredo joined UNIDIR after working for the Stockholm International SECTION 4 Peace Research Institute; for the United Nations Regional Centre for 79 The Way forward Peace, Disarmament and Development in Latin America and the Caribbean; and for Ret. US Ambassador Dennis Jett. He has a bachelor’s degree in SECTION 5 political science and master’s degrees in public affairs, from Brown University, and 83 Annexes international affairs and economic development, from The Pennsylvania State University. 83 5.1. Difference-in-differences statistical approach 83 5.2. Estimating excess mortality 84 5.3. Other research methods: Civilian harm based and instance based 86 5.4. What are explosive weapons, and who uses them? REVERBERATING EFFECTS ON CIVILIANS FROM THE USE OF EXPLOSIVE WEAPONS IN POPULATED AREAS v iv UNIDIR RESEARCH FRAMEWORK REVERBERATING EFFECTS ON CIVILIANS FROM THE USE OF EXPLOSIVE WEAPONS IN POPULATED AREAS v INTRODUCTION The impacts of explosive weapons use in Weapons in Cities in calling for an end to populated areas are much wider and longer the devastation and civilian suffering and in lasting than the shock waves of the explosive highlighting that, blast. The use of explosive weapons in populated areas sets in motion a series of “The massive destruction caused by armed complex knock-on effects that spread out conflicts in cities can set development over time and space in urban ecosystems, indexes back by years and even decades... with negative consequences for civilian well- This is a major setback to the achievement being and the environment in which people of many of the Sustainable Development live. These “reverberating effects” manifest Goals. Progress gained over decades can across a wide range of interlinked sectors, be quickly reversed as once lively and including transportation networks, electricity, prospering population centres turn into waste and water management, public health, ghost towns.”2 education, food security, housing and shelter, displacement, culture and identity, economic This document outlines indicators that, if opportunity, environmental standards, and made available, collected, contextualized, gender equality.1 These reverberating effects disaggregated and used in comparison to a can cause indirect -yet causally linked- control scenario or baseline data from before deaths from the use of explosive weapons, the use of explosive weapons could shed light and are often underestimated. The purpose on the reverberating effects that the use of of this document is to offer indicators to EWIPA has on civilian casualties and injuries, document knock-on effects and potentially sustainable cities and communities, health, inform and influence the policy and and education. These areas are drawn from practice of parties to conflict.The indicators a select number of Sustainable Development outlined in this document aim to shed light Goals (SDGs) and represent SDG 16, SDG 11, on the generalized pattern of harm from SDG 3 and SDG 4, respectively. These select the use of explosive weapons in populated SDGs and the ensuing indicators should be areas (EWIPA). By using a standardized set understood as a starting point to document of indicators, the data generated can be the causal pathways through which the use of leveraged to build a comparable evidence explosive weapons unleashes reverberating base reflecting the consequences to civilian effects and hinders development. The choice well-being of the use of EWIPA and to inform was based on accessibility of information and high-level decision-making on policy and prominence of causal pathways. This choice is practice. not necessarily an indication that the chosen SDG areas are the most important, or the This document also echoes the Joint Appeal only, causal pathways. by the United Nations Secretary-General and the President of the International Committee of the Red Cross on the Use of Explosive 1 Adverse environmental impacts can include the risk to people from debris, hazardous materials (e.g. asbestos, industrial chemicals, fuels, PCBs [polychlorinated biphenyls]) and waste. This includes debris from the destruction of buildings in which building materials are pulverized, as well as chemical spills and ground contamination arising from damage to industrial facili- ties, and pollution from the damage of wastewater sanitation or the collapse of other waste management infrastructure. 2 United Nations, Note to Correspondents: Joint Appeal by the UN Secretary-General
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