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Implications of Kosovo: Another Balkans War?

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Implications of Kosovo: Another Balkans War? R� from AUSA 's Institute of Land Warfare Implications of Kosovo: Another Balkans War? For centuries the Balkan Peninsula has been the more violent eruption has increased since 1989, when geographic crossroad for ethnic, religious and the autonomy of the province under the former .· nationalistic fervor - where East meets West. The Yugoslavia was rescinded and it was placed under region includes Albania, Greece, Romania, Bulgaria, virtual martial law; in response, ethnic Albanians have European Turkey, Slovenia, Croatia, Bosnia­ put into effect their own state structure and openly Herzegovina, Macedonia and the Federal Republic of advocate independence from Serbia. This situation, Yugoslavia (Serbia and Montenegro). leading to periodic violent clashes between the Serbian government and the ethnic Albanian majority, has Shortly after the end of the Cold War, the former continued throughout the process· of international Yugoslav republics of Slovenia and Macedonia were peacekeeping fostered by the Dayton Accords. The able to break away from Yugoslavia, essentially Kosovo Liberation Army (KLA) emerged and has without open conflict. Croatia and Bosnia­ initiated a paramilitary campaign to challenge Serbian Herzegovina, however, dissolved into civil war, pitting authority. the centuries-old Muslim, Croat and Serb communities against one another. Both Serbia and Croatia actively In early March, the Serbian government deployed supported their ethnic brothers in the fighting. forces to Kosovo to root out KLA leaders, in apparent response to previous incidents involving loss of life 1995 The Dayton Accords, along with the strong among Serbian policemen. The extensive violence and show of force exhibited by NATO subsequent to the loss of life visited by the Serbian force upon ethnic United Nations effort, brought the fighting to an end. Albanians, particularly women and children, has The continuing presence of NATO ground, air and sea refocused international attention and resulted in some forces has maintained the relative peace while attempts limited international sanctions and censure of the are made to put the political, economic and legal bases Yugoslav government. for stability into place. Kosovo has an ethnic Albanian population of over Against this backdrop there has been international 1.8 million and a Serb population of about 200,000. concern that ethnic conflict could erupt elsewhere in Though ethnic Albanians are now dominant in the the region. Macedonia has been relatively peaceful, due region, Serbs regard Kosovo as symbolic of their own in part to a continuing U.S. Army presence that lends struggle for independence over the · centuries. legitimacy to U.S. and NATO resolve to keep abreast Consequently, any expression for independence by of developments in the area. The tense situation has ethnic Albanians is met with resounding rejection from been contained. The same cannot be said for the greater Serbia. Serbian province of Kosovo. Of major concern to the international community, The situation in Kosovo has been uneasy in particular NATO, the United Nations and, of course, throughout the post-World War II era. The potential for the United States, is the potential for the recent Kosovo more ... DEFENSE REPORT is published by the Association of the United States Army's Institute of Land Warfare. The series is designed to provide information on topics that will stimulate professional discussion and further public understanding of the Army's role in national defense. Questions regarding the DEFENSE REPORT should be directed to: AUSA, Institute of Land Warfare (Attn: DEFENSE REPORT), 2425 Wilson Blvd., Arlington VA 22201. 98-2 April 1998/DR bloodshed to ignite an ethnic-based civil war- much into the crisis in support of the ethnic Albanians comes like that in Bosnia-Herzegovina. More seriously, a the even more serious possibility of drawing Greece broader war could develop involving several regional into the conflict in support of Serbia; and then states that have traditionally sided with one side or the escalation involving Turkey. With two NATO other. Other states in the region - Albania, Greece, members on opposite sides of the conflict, the cohesion Turkey- as well as other NATO members and Russia of NATO itself is ruptured. The scenario of escalation potentially can be drawn into a war.· can be further extended to ultimately involve Russia and other European states. How does the international community prevent escalation scenarios such as these from emerging from At this point diplomats will attempt to prevail by the present conflict? What imposing nonmilitary instruments are available sanctions on Serbia and and potentially most the Federal Republic of countries ·effective? Which Yugoslavia Militaryplann� Romonio and international institu­ will be developing alter­ tions are most appropriate native options in the event and credible? Toward forces are committed to which countries should the region. Whatever the efforts bedir ected? politico-military decisions, they will need The answers are not to be tempered with an readily discernible. In this appreciation of the poten­ era of global transfor­ tial b.r..oader scope and mation, the 201h century q.eepfy rooted causes of political-military uses of 11oty · the current conflict. power are not as. workable. The traditional policies While there may be a and methods of sanctions role for military forces in and embargoes, deterrence, containment and use of implementing a political solution, no armed forc:e alone force - unilaterally or in coalition - may not be as can create a stable and viable political structure that workable in a complex scenario such as Kosovo. will endure once the force-.� withdrawn. Policymakers must first put into place a'n�npartisan, workable, The United States, as the sole superpower, has had politically realistic framework 'anq not simply an thn.lst upon it responsibility for global engagement as ideologically appealing alternative. I�· seeking such a the major proponent of democratic values. In this framework, international mediators, and the United capacity, we are not able to stand idly by as the States in particular, cannot be seen as taking sides; such situation in Kosovo escalates, possibly out of control. will encourage intransigence of one side and foreclose This was learned, however belatedly, with the war of pragmatic policy options. civilian attrition, retribution and ethnic cleansing that characterized the Bosnian War (now, however The Kosovo situation has the potential for a tentatively, stopped due to the presence ofNATO forces). continuation of the tragic history already written. The nature of any political approach, the effectiveness of The situation in Kosovo rides on a historical any military intervention in bringing a measure of momentum with roots in the Middle Ages; generations stability to the region, and the lasting effects of these of ethnic conflict underlie the present circumstances. efforts upon withdrawal will have an impact on the With the potential for drawing Macedonia and Albania credibility and viability ofNATO and the United States. ### .
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