Front Matter

Cambridge University Press 978-0-521-87812-8 - Geomorphology and Global Environmental Change Edited by Olav Slaymaker, Thomas Spencer and Christine Embleton-Hamann Frontmatter More information

Geomorphology and Global Environmental Change

How will global environmental change affect our landscape and Columbia. He is a Former President of the Canadian Association the way we interact with it? The next 50 years will determine the of Geographers and the International Association of future of the environment in which we live, whether catastrophe or Geomorphologists, and a Linton Medallist. He has held visiting reorganisation. Global climate change will potentially have a professorships at the universities of Vienna, Canterbury, Oslo, profound effect on our landscape, but there are other important Southern Illinois, Taiwan, and Nanjing. He has authored 120 drivers of landscape change, including relief, hydroclimate and refereed journal articles and authored and edited 20 books. He is a runoff, sea level change and human activity. This volume Co-Editor-in-Chief of Catena and member of nine international summarises the state of the art concerning the landscape-scale editorial boards. geomorphic implications of global environmental change. It analyses the potential effects of environmental change on a THOMAS SPENCER is University Senior Lecturer in the range of landscapes, including mountains, lakes, rivers, coasts, Department of Geography, Director of the Cambridge Coastal reefs, rainforests, savannas, deserts, permafrost, and ice sheets and Research Unit, University of Cambridge, and Official Fellow, ice caps. Magdalene College, Cambridge. His research interests in wetland Geomorphology and Global Environmental Change provides a hydrodynamics and sedimentation, coral reef geomorphology, sea benchmark statement from some of the world’s leading level rise and coastal management have taken him to the Caribbean geomorphologists on the state of the environment and its likely Sea, the Pacific and Indian oceans, Venice and its lagoon and the near-future change. It is invaluable as required reading in graduate coastline of eastern England. He has authored and co-edited advanced courses on geomorphology and environmental science, numerous books on coastal problems, environmental challenges and as a reference for research scientists. It is highly and global environmental change. interdisciplinary in scope, with a primary audience of earth and environmental scientists, geographers, geomorphologists and CHRISTINE EMBLETON-HAMANN is a Professor in the ecologists, both practitioners and professionals. It will also have a Department of Geography and Regional Research at the University of wider reach to those concerned with the social, economic and Vienna. Her main interest is in alpine environments. Within this field political issues raised by global environmental change and be of she focusses on the history of ideas concerning the evolution of alpine value to policy-makers and environmental managers. environments, genesis and development of specific landforms and human impact on alpine environments, and has written extensively on OLAV SLAYMAKER is Professor Emeritus in the Department of geomorphological hazards and risks and the assessment of scenic Geography, University of British Columbia. He is a Senior quality of alpine landscapes. She is Past President of the Austrian Associate of the Peter Wall Institute for Advanced Studies and Commission on Geomorphology and Secretary-General of the Senior Fellow of St John’s College, University of British International Association of Geomorphologists Working Group.

© in this web service Cambridge University Press www.cambridge.org Cambridge University Press 978-0-521-87812-8 - Geomorphology and Global Environmental Change Edited by Olav Slaymaker, Thomas Spencer and Christine Embleton-Hamann Frontmatter More information

Praise for Geomorphology and Global Environmental Change:

‘Global change, whether due to global warming or other human ‘According to the World Resources Institute, 21 metric tons of impacts, is one of the great issues of the day. In this volume some of material, including materials not actually used in production (soil the world’s most distinguished geomorphologists give an expert erosion, over-burden, construction debris, etc.) are processed and and wide-ranging analysis of its significance for the movement.’ discharged as waste every year to provide the average Japanese ANDREW GOUDIE,University of Oxford and President of with goods and services. The figure for the US is an astonishing the International Association of Geomorphologists 86 tonnes per capita. The OECD says that in 2002, 50 billion tonnes of resources were extracted from the ecosphere to satisfy ‘Geomorphology and Global Environmental Change, with human needs and the number is headed toward 80 billion tonnes chapters by a truly global group of distinguished per year by 2020. Most of this is associated with consumption by geomorphologists, redresses the imbalance that has seen an just the richest 20% of humanity who take home 76% of global overemphasis on climate as the prime driver of landscape change. income, so the human role in global mass movement and landscape This comprehensive book summarises the deepening complexity alteration may only be beginning. These data show unequivocally of multiple drivers of change, recognising the role that relief plays that the human enterprise in an integral and growing component of in influencing hydrological processes, that sea level exerts on the ecosphere and one of the greatest geological forces affecting coastal environments, and the far-reaching impacts of human the face of the earth. Remarkably, however, techno-industrial activity in all the major biomes, in addition to climate. The lags and society still thinks of itself as separate from “the environment”. thresholds, the changing supply to the sediment cascade, and the Certainly geomorphologists have historically considered human influence of fire on vegetation ensure that uncertain near-future activities as external to geosystems. This is about to change. In process regimes will result in unforeseen landscape responses. The Geomorphology and Global Environmental Change, Slaymaker, potential collapse and reorganisation of landscapes provide fertile Spencer and Embleton-Hamann provide a comprehensive research fields for a new generation of geomorphologists and this treatment of landscape degradation in geosystems ranging from book provides an authoritative synthesis of where we are today and coral reefs to icecaps that considers humans as a major endogenous a basis for embarking on a more risk-based effort to forecast how forcing mechanism. This long-overdue integration of the landforms around us are likely to change in the future.’ geomorphology and human ecology greatly enriches the global COLON D. WOODROFFE, University of Wollongong change debate. It should be a primary reference for all serious students of contemporary geomorphology and the full range of ‘A robust future for geomorphology will inevitably have to be environmental sciences.’ founded on greater consideration of human impacts on the WILLIAM E. REES, University of British Columbia; landscape. An intellectual framework for this will necessarily have co-author of Our Ecological Footprint; Founding Fellow of the environmental change as a central component. This volume One Earth Initiative represents an important starting point. Coverage is comprehensive, and a set of authoritative voices provide individual chapters serving as both benchmarks and signposts for critical disciplinary topics.’ COLIN E. THORN, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign

Geomorphology and Global Environmental Change

EDITED BY Olav Slaymaker

The University of British Columbia Thomas Spencer

University of Cambridge Christine Embleton-Hamann

Universität Wien

CAMBRIDGE UNIVERSITY PRESS Cambridge, New York, Melbourne, Madrid, Cape Town, Singapore, São Paulo, Delhi Cambridge University Press The Edinburgh Building, Cambridge CB2 8RU, UK

Published in the United States of America by Cambridge University Press, New York

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First published 2009

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Contents

List of contributors page x Preface xiii Acknowledgements xiv List of acronyms and abbreviations xv

1 Landscape and landscape-scale processes as the unﬁlled niche in the global environmental change debate: an introduction 1 OLAV SLAYMAKER, THOMAS SPENCER AND SIMON DADSON 1.1 The context 1 1.2 Climatic geomorphology 4 1.3 Process geomorphology 5 1.4 Identiﬁcation of disturbance regimes 6 1.5 Landscape change 8 1.6 Systemic drivers of global environmental change (I): hydroclimate and runoff 10 1.7 Systemic drivers of global environmental change (II): sea level 14 1.8 Cumulative drivers of global environmental change (I): topographic relief 17 1.9 Cumulative drivers of global environmental change (II): human activity 19 1.10 Broader issues for geomorphology in the global environmental change debate 22 1.11 Landscape change models in geomorphology 25 1.12 Organisation of the book 28

2 Mountains 37 OLAV SLAYMAKER AND CHRISTINE EMBLETON-HAMANN 2.1 Introduction 37 2.2 Direct driver I: relief 42 2.3 Direct driver II: hydroclimate and runoff 44 2.4 Direct driver III: human activity, population and land use 45 2.5 Twenty-ﬁrst-century mountain landscapes under the inﬂuence of hydroclimate change 49

Contentsvi

2.6 Twenty-ﬁrst-century mountain landscapes under the inﬂuence of land use and land cover change 55 2.7 Vulnerability of mountain landscapes and relation to adaptive capacity 61

3 Lakes and lake catchments 71 KENJI KASHIWAYA, OLAV SLAYMAKER AND MICHAEL CHURCH 3.1 Introduction 71 3.2 Lakes and wetlands 72 3.3 The lake catchment as geomorphic system 74 3.4 Internal lake processes 78 3.5 Hydroclimate changes and proxy data 80 3.6 Effects of human activity 86 3.7 Scenarios of future wetland and lake catchment change 92

4 Rivers 98 MICHAEL CHURCH, TIM P. BURT, VICTOR J. GALAY AND G. MATHIAS KONDOLF 4.1 Introduction 98 4.2 Land surface: runoff production 98 4.3 River channels: function and management 103 4.4 Fluvial sediment transport and sedimentation 109 4.5 Water control: dams and diversions 114 4.6 River restoration in the context of global change 121 4.7 Conclusions 125

5 Estuaries, coastal marshes, tidal flats and coastal dunes 130 DENISE J. REED, ROBIN DAVIDSON-ARNOTT AND GERARDO M. E. PERILLO 5.1 Introduction 130 5.2 Estuaries 133 5.3 Coastal marshes and tidal flats 136 5.4 Coastal sand dune systems 142 5.5 Managing coastal geomorphic systems for the twenty-first century 150

6 Beaches, cliffs and deltas 158 MARCEL J. F. STIVE, PETER J. COWELL AND ROBERT J. NICHOLLS 6.1 Introduction 158 6.2 Coastal classiﬁcation 159 6.3 The coastal-tract cascade 162 6.4 Applications of the quantitative coastal tract 167 6.5 Risk-based prediction and adaptation 174 6.6 Conclusions 176

Contents vii

7 Coral reefs 180 PAUL KENCH, CHRIS PERRY AND THOMAS SPENCER 7.1 Introduction 180 7.2 Carbonate production in coral reef environments: the reef carbonate factory 182 7.3 Coral reef landforms: reef and reef ﬂat geomorphology 188 7.4 Reef sedimentary landforms 195 7.5 Anthropogenic effects on sedimentary landforms 202 7.6 Synthesis 205

8 Tropical rainforests 214 RORY P. D. WALSH AND WILL H. BLAKE 8.1 The tropical rainforest ecological and morphoclimatic zone 214 8.2 Geomorphological characteristics of the rainforest zone: a synthesis 217 8.3 Recent climate change in the rainforest zone 231 8.4 Approaches and methods for predicting geomorphological change: physical models versus conceptual/empirical approaches 234 8.5 Potential ecological, hydrological and geomorphological responses to predicted future climate change in rainforest areas 235 8.6 Research gaps and priorities for improvement to geomorphological predictions in the humid tropics 243 8.7 Summary and conclusions 243

9 Tropical savannas 248 MICHAEL E. MEADOWS AND DAVID S. G. THOMAS 9.1 Introduction 248 9.2 Key landforms and processes 255 9.3 Landscape sensitivity, thresholds and ‘hotspots’ 262 9.4 A case study in geomorphic impacts of climate change: the Kalahari of southern Africa 265 9.5 Concluding remarks 269

10 Deserts 276 NICHOLAS LANCASTER 10.1 Introduction 276 10.2 Drivers of change and variability in desert geomorphic systems 278 10.3 Fluvial geomorphic systems in deserts 283 10.4 Aeolian systems 286 10.5 Discussion 291

11 Mediterranean landscapes 297 MARIA SALA 11.1 Introduction 297 11.2 Geology, topography and soils 297 11.3 Climate, hydrology, vegetation and geomorphological processes 299 11.4 Long-term environmental change in Mediterranean landscapes 303

Contentsviii

11.5 Traditional human impacts in Mediterranean landscapes and nineteenth- and twentieth century change 307 11.6 Contemporary and expected near-future land use changes 310 11.7 Global environmental change in Mediterranean environments and its interaction with land use change 312 11.8 Concluding remarks 315

12 Temperate forests and rangelands 321 ROY C. SIDLE AND TIM P. BURT 12.1 Introduction 321 12.2 Global distribution of mid-latitude temperate forests and rangelands 323 12.3 Potential climate change scenarios and geomorphic consequences 325 12.4 Types, trajectories and vulnerabilities associated with anticipated mass wasting responses to climate change 325 12.5 Anthropogenic effects on geomorphic processes 328 12.6 Techniques for assessing effects of anthropogenic and climate-induced mass wasting 334 12.7 Summary and conclusions 337

13 Tundra and permafrost-dominated taiga 344 MARIE-FRANÇOISE ANDRÉ AND OLEG ANISIMOV 13.1 Permafrost regions: a global change ‘hotspot’ 344 13.2 Permafrost indicators: current trends and projections 348 13.3 Permafrost thaw as a driving force of landscape change in tundra/taiga areas 350 13.4 Impact of landscape change on greenhouse gas release 354 13.5 Socioeconomic impact and hazard implications of thermokarst activity 356 13.6 Vulnerability of arctic coastal regions exposed to accelerated erosion 358 13.7 Discriminating the climate, sea level and land use components of global change 360 13.8 Lessons from the past 361 13.9 Geomorphological services and recommendations for future management of permafrost regions 362

14 Ice sheets and ice caps 368 DAVID SUGDEN 14.1 Introduction 368 14.2 Distribution of ice sheets and ice caps 369 14.3 Ice sheet and ice cap landscapes 374 14.4 Ice sheets and ice caps: mass balance 378 14.5 Ice ﬂow and ice temperature 380 14.6 External controls and feedbacks 381 14.7 Landscapes of glacial erosion and deposition 384 14.8 How will ice sheets and ice caps respond to global warming? 389 14.9 Conclusion and summary 399

Contents ix

15 Landscape, landscape-scale processes and global environmental change: synthesis and new agendas for the twenty-ﬁrst century 403 THOMAS SPENCER, OLAV SLAYMAKER AND CHRISTINE EMBLETON-HAMANN 15.1 Introduction: beyond the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report 403 15.2 Geomorphological processes and global environmental change 405 15.3 Landscapes and global environmental change 407 15.4 Conclusions: new geomorphological agendas for the twenty-ﬁrst century 416

Index 424

The colour plates are situated between pages 80 and 81

Contributors

Professor Marie-Françoise André Dr Victor J. Galay University of Clermont-Ferrand Northwest Hydraulic Consultants Ltd 4 rue Ledru, 63057 Clermont-Ferrand Cedex 1, France 30 Gostick Place, North Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada V7M 3G2 Professor Oleg Anisimov State Hydrological Institute Professor Kenji Kashiwaya 23, second Line V.O., Institute of Nature and Environmental Technology, St Petersburg, Russia Kanazawa University Kakuma, Kanazawa 920–1192, Japan Dr Will H. Blake School of Geography, University of Plymouth Dr Paul Kench Drake Circus, Plymouth PL4 8AA, UK School of Geography and Environmental Science, University of Auckland Professor Tim P. Burt Private Bag 92019, Auckland, New Zealand Department of Geography, Durham University South Road, Durham DH1 3LE, UK Professor G. Mathias Kondolf Department of Landscape Architecture Professor Michael Church and Environmental Planning, Department of Geography, University of California The University of British Columbia 202 Wurster Hall, Berkeley, CA 94720, USA 1984 West Mall, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada V6T 1Z2 Professor Nicholas Lancaster Center for Arid Lands Environmental Management, Dr Peter J. Cowell Desert Research Institute University of Sydney, Institute of Marine Science 2215 Raggio Parkway, Reno, NV 89512, USA Building H01, Sydney, Australia Professor Michael E. Meadows Dr Simon Dadson Department of Environmental and Geographical Sciences, Centre for Ecology and Hydrology University of Cape Town Crowmarsh Gifford, Wallingford OX10 8BB, UK Rondebosch 7701, South Africa Professor Robin Davidson-Arnott Professor Robert J. Nicholls Department of Geography, University of Guelph School of Civil Engineering and the Environment, Guelph, Ontario, Canada, N1G 2WI University of Southampton Lanchester Building, Southampton SO17 1BJ, UK Professor Christine Embleton-Hamann Institut für Geographie und Regionalforschung, Professor Gerardo M. E. Perillo Universität Wien Departamento de Geología, Universidad Nacional del Sur Universitätsstr. 7, A-1010 Wien, Austria San Juan 670, (8000) Bahía Blanca, Argentina

List of contributors xi

Professor Chris Perry Dr Thomas Spencer Department of Environmental and Geographical Sciences, Cambridge Coastal Research Unit, Manchester Metropolitan University Department of Geography, John Dalton Building, Chester St., University of Cambridge Manchester M1 5GD, UK Downing Place, Cambridge CB2 3EN, UK Professor Denise J. Reed Professor Marcel J. F. Stive Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Section of Hydraulic Engineering, University of New Orleans Faculty of Civil Engineering and Geosciences, New Orleans, LA 70148, USA Delft University of Technology P.O. Box 5048, 2600 GA Delft, The Netherlands Professor Maria Sala Departament de Geograﬁa Física, Professor David Sugden Facultat de Geograﬁa i Història, Universitat de Barcelona Institute of Geography, School of GeoSciences, Montalegre 6, 08001 Barcelona, Spain University of Edinburgh Edinburgh EH9 3JW, UK Professor Roy C. Sidle Director, Environmental Sciences Program, Professor David S. G. Thomas Department of Geology, Appalachian State University School of Geography, P.O. Box 32067, Boone, NC 28608, USA Oxford University Centre for the Environment South Parks Road, Oxford OX1 3QY, UK Professor Olav Slaymaker Department of Geography, Professor Rory P. D. Walsh The University of British Columbia Department of Geography, 1984 West Mall, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada University of Wales Swansea V6T 1Z2 Singleton Park, Swansea SA2 8PP, UK

Preface

The catalyst for this book was the Presidential Address The editors and authors share a common professional delivered by Professor Andrew Goudie, Master of St Cross interest in landforms, landform systems and terrestrial land- College, Oxford, to the Sixth International Conference scapes. Love of landscape and anxiety over many of the on Geomorphology held in Zaragoza, Spain in September contemporary changes that are being imposed on landscape 2005. He identified the question of landform and landscape by society are also driving emotions that unite the authors. response to global environmental change as one of the All authors perceive a heightened awareness of the critical five central challenges for geomorphology (the science of issue of global climate change in contemporary public landform and landscape systems). He called for the establish- debate, but at the same time see a worrying neglect of ment of an international Working Group to address this ques- the role of landscape in that environmental problematique. tion and the chapters of this volume constitute the first product The two topics (climate change and landscape change) are of that process. We applaud Professor Goudie’s vision and closely intertwined. This book certainly has no intention of trust that this first modest effort to respond to his call to downplaying the importance of climate change but it does arms will be reinforced by further research contributions on attempt to counterbalance an overemphasis on climate as the topic. The book was written under the editorial guidance the single driver of environmental change. of Professor Olav Slaymaker (The University of British All the contributors strongly believe that a greater under- Columbia), Dr Thomas Spencer (University of Cambridge) standing of geomorphology will contribute to the sustain- and Professor Christine Embleton-Hamann (University of ability of our planet. It is our hope that this understanding Vienna). The editors wish to pay tribute to three mentors, will be turned into practical policy. It is our gratitude for Clifford Embleton, Ian Douglas and Denys Brunsden, who, in the beauty and integrity of landscape that motivates us to different ways, have been instrumental in stimulating their present this perspective on the crucial global environmen- enthusiasm for a global geomorphological perspective. taldebatethatinvolvesusall.

Acknowledgements

This book has been entirely dependent on the expertise, Sandy Tudhope, Theo Van Asch, Heather Viles, Andrew hard work and commitment to excellence shown through- Warren and Colin Woodroffe. out by the Lead Authors of the 15 chapters: A critical element in the gestation of this volume were Olav Slaymaker (Chapters 1 and 2), Kenji Kashiwaya (3), two intensive meetings between authors held in Michael Church (4), Denise Reed (5), Marcel Stive (6), Paul Cambridge, England and Obergurgl, Austria. We are grate- Kench (7), Rory Walsh (8), Michael Meadows (9), Nick ful to The Master and Fellows of Magdalene College, Lancaster (10), Maria Sala (11), Roy Sidle (12), Marie- Cambridge for the use of their superb facilities. The Françoise André (13), David Sugden (14) and Thomas Austrian meeting was part of a joint meeting with the Spencer (15) with important assistance from the many Austrian Commission on Geomorphology (now known as Contributing Authors: the Austrian Research Association on Geomorphology and Thomas Spencer (Chapters 1 and 7), Simon Dadson (1), Environmental Change). We are indebted to Margreth Christine Embleton-Hamann (2 and 15), Olav Slaymaker (3 Keiler, Andreas Kellerer-Pirklbauer and Hans Stötter and 15), Michael Church (3), Tim Burt (4 and 12), Vic for making the Obergurgl meeting a successful interna- Galay (4), Matt Kondolf (4), Robin Davidson-Arnott (5), tional exchange of ideas. We gratefully acknowledge a Gerardo Perillo (5), Peter Cowell (6), Robert Nicholls (6), grant of €2000 from the International Association of Chris Perry (7), William Blake (8), David Thomas (9) and Geomorphologists to assist with the costs of these Oleg Anisimov (13). meetings. The external reviewers brought a balance and perspec- We thank Matt Lloyd, Senior Editor, Earth and Life tive which modiﬁed some of the enthusiasms of the authors Sciences at Cambridge University Press for encouragement and have produced a better product: and advice. We also thank Annie Lovett and Anna Hodson John Andrews, Peter Ashmore, James Bathurst, Hanna at the Press for their support throughout the production Bremer, Denys Brunsden, Bob Buddemeier, Nel Caine, process. The technical expertise of Eric Leinberger, Celeste Coelho, Arthur Conacher, John Dearing, Richard Senior Computer Cartographer, Department of Geography, Dikau, Ian Douglas, Charlie Finkl, Hugh French, Thomas UBC, is responsible for the excellence of the illustrative Glade, Andrew Goudie, Dick Grove, Pat Hesp, David material. Dr Dori Kovanen, Research Associate, Department Hopley, Philippe Huybrechts, Johan Kleman, Gerd of Geography, UBC, provided critical comments, many Masselink, Ulf Molau, David Nash, Jan Nyssen, Frank hours of editorial assistance and technical expertise in data Oldﬁeld, Phil Owens, Volker Rachold, John Schmidt, handling (Plates 9–12). Dr Pamela Green, Research Ashok Singhvi, John Smol, Marino Sorriso-Valvo, David Scientist, Complex Systems Research Center, University Thomas, Michael Thomas, Colin Thorn, Ian Townend, of New Hampshire, provided Plate 7.

Acronyms and abbreviations

ACD Arctic Coastal Dynamics ELA Equilibrium Line Altitude ACIA Arctic Climate Impact Assessment EMDW Eastern Mediterranean Deep Water AMIP Atmospheric Model Intercomparison ENSO El Niño–Southern Oscillation Project ENVISAT Environmental Satellite AO Arctic Oscillation EOSDIS Earth Observing System Data and AOGCM Atmosphere–Ocean General Circulation Information System Model EPA Environmental Protection Agency AVHRR Advanced Very High-Resolution (USA) Radiometer EPICA European Programme for Ice Coring in BP Before Present Antarctica CAESAR Cellular Automaton Evolutionary Slope EROS Earth Resources Observation System And River Model ERS-1 European Remote-Sensing Satellite-1 CALM Circumpolar Active Layer Monitoring ERS-2 European Remote-Sensing Satellite-2 CAP Common Agricultural Policy (EU) ESA European Space Agency CCC Canadian Centre for Climate ESF European Science Foundation CCIAV Climate Change Impacts, Adaptation and ETM Enhanced Thematic Mapper (Landsat) Vulnerability (IPCC) EU European Union CHILD Channel–Hillslope Integrated Landscape FAO Food and Agriculture Organization of Development Model the United Nations CIESIN Centre for International Earth Science FAR Fourth Assessment Report (IPCC) Information Network GATT General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade CLIMAP Climate Long-Range Investigation, GCES Glen Canyon Environmental Study Mapping and Prediction GCM General Circulation Model CORINE Coordination of Information on the GEO Global Environmental Outlook Environment Programme (EC) GFDL Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory CORONA First operational space photo GIS Geographic Information System reconnaissance satellite (USA), 1959–72 GLASOD Global Assessment of Soil Degradation CPC Climate Prediction Centre (NOAA) GLIMMER Ice Sheet Model CSIRO Commonwealth Scientiﬁc and Industrial GLOF Glacier Lake Outburst Flood Research Organization GLP Global Land Project (IGBP–IHDP) DEM Digital Elevation Model GOES Geostationary Operational dSLAM Distributed Shallow Landslide Analysis Environmental Satellite Model GPR Ground Penetrating Radar EC European Commission GPS Global Positioning System ECHAM European Centre Hamburg Model GTN-P Global Terrestrial Network for ECMWF European Centre for Medium-Range Permafrost Weather Forecasts HadCM Hadley Centre Model (UK Met Ofﬁce)

List of acronyms and abbreviationsxvi

HOP Holocene Optimum OECD Organization for Economic Cooperation IAG International Association of and Development (Paris) Geomorphologists OSL Optically Stimulated Luminescence IASC International Arctic Science Committee PAGES Past Global Changes (IGBP) IDSSM Integrated Dynamic Slope Stability PDO Pacific Decadal Oscillation Model PDSI Palmer Drought Severity Index IGBP International Geosphere–Biosphere PESERA Pan-European Soil Erosion Risk Programme Assessment IGU International Geographical Union QBO Quasi-Biennial Oscillation IHDP International Human Dimensions RCP Representative Concentration Programme on Global Environmental Pathway Change RIL Reduced Impact Logging IPA International Permafrost Association SHALSTAB Shallow landslide model IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate SIR Spaceborne Imaging Radar Change SOC Soil Organic Carbon IPO Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation SOI Southern Oscillation Index ITCZ Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone SPOT Système pour l’Observation de la Terre IUCN International Union for Conservation of (France) Nature SRES Special Report on Emissions Scenarios IUGS International Union of Geological (IPCC) Sciences SST Sea Surface Temperature Landsat Land Remote Sensing Satellite STM Shoreface Translation Model LER Local Elevation Range SUDS Sustainable Urban Drainage Systems LGM Last Glacial Maximum TAR Third Assessment Report (IPCC) LIA Little Ice Age TGD Three Gorges Dam (China) LIDAR Light Detection and Ranging Instrument TOC Total Organic Carbon LUCC Land Use Cover Change project TOPEX/Poseidon Ocean Topography Experiment (USA (IGBP – IHDP) and France) MA Millennium Ecosystem Assessment TOPOG Catchment Hydrological Model METEOSAT Geosynchronous Meteorology Satellite (CSIRO) (ESA) UN United Nations MMD Multi-model Data Set UNCCD United Nations Convention to Combat MODIS Moderate Resolution Imaging Desertification Spectroradiometer UNCHS United Nations Centre for Human MOHSST Met Office (UK) Historical Sea Surface Settlements Temperature UNEP United Nations Environment MSLP Monthly Sea Level Pressure Programme NAO North Atlantic Oscillation UNESCO United Nations Educational, Scientific NASA National Aeronautics and Space and Cultural Organization Administration (USA) UNFCCC United Nations Framework Convention NCAR National Centre for Atmospheric on Climate Change Research UNPD United Nations Population Division NDVI Normalised Difference Vegetation Index USDA United States Department of Agriculture NESDIS National Environmental Satellite, Data, USFS United States Forest Service and Information Service (NOAA) USGS United States Geological Survey NGO Non-governmental Organisation USLE Universal Soil Loss Equation NOAA National Oceanic and Atmospheric WCMC World Conservation Monitoring Administration (USA) Centre NRCS Natural Resources Conservation Service WHO World Health Organization (USA) WMDW Western Mediterranean Deep Water NSIDC National Snow and Ice Data Center WMO World Meteorological Organization (USA) WWF World Wide Fund for Nature