RESEARCH ARTICLE Transmission of West Nile and five other temperate mosquito-borne viruses peaks at temperatures between 23˚C and 26˚C Marta S Shocket1,2*, Anna B Verwillow1, Mailo G Numazu1, Hani Slamani3, Jeremy M Cohen4,5, Fadoua El Moustaid6, Jason Rohr4,7, Leah R Johnson3,6, Erin A Mordecai1 1Department of Biology, Stanford University, Stanford, United States; 2Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of California Los Angeles, Los Angeles, United States; 3Department of Statistics, Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University (Virginia Tech), Blacksburg, United States; 4Department of Integrative Biology, University of South Florida, Tampa, United States; 5Department of Forest and Wildlife Ecology, University of Wisconsin, Madison, United States; 6Department of Biological Sciences, Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University (Virginia Tech), Blacksburg, United States; 7Department of Biological Sciences, Eck Institute of Global Health, Environmental Change Initiative, University of Notre Dame, South Bend, United States Abstract The temperature-dependence of many important mosquito-borne diseases has never been quantified. These relationships are critical for understanding current distributions and predicting future shifts from climate change. We used trait-based models to characterize temperature-dependent transmission of 10 vector–pathogen pairs of mosquitoes (Culex pipiens, Cx. quinquefascsiatus, Cx. tarsalis, and others) and viruses (West Nile, Eastern and Western Equine Encephalitis, St. Louis Encephalitis, Sindbis, and Rift Valley Fever viruses), most with substantial transmission in temperate regions. Transmission is optimized at intermediate temperatures (23–26˚ *For correspondence: C) and often has wider thermal breadths (due to cooler lower thermal limits) compared to
[email protected] pathogens with predominately tropical distributions (in previous studies).