DOCSLIB.ORG

Downloaded 09/26/21 09:37 PM UTC 2526 JOURNAL of the ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES VOLUME 70

Total Page：16

File Type：pdf, Size：1020Kb

Download full-text PDF Read full-text
Downloaded 09/26/21 09:37 PM UTC 2526 JOURNAL of the ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES VOLUME 70 AUGUST 2013 I T O A N D W U 2525 Typhoon-Position-Oriented Sensitivity Analysis. Part I: Theory and Verification KOSUKE ITO Department of Atmospheric Sciences, National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan, and Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, Yokohama, Japan CHUN-CHIEH WU Department of Atmospheric Sciences, National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan (Manuscript received 1 November 2012, in final form 2 February 2013) ABSTRACT A new sensitivity analysis method is proposed for the ensemble prediction system in which a tropical cy- clone (TC) position is taken as a metric. Sensitivity is defined as a slope of linear regression (or its approx- imation) between state variable and a scalar representing the TC position based on ensemble simulation. The experiment results illustrate important regions for ensemble TC track forecast. The typhoon-position- oriented sensitivity analysis (TyPOS) is applied to Typhoon Shanshan (2006) for the verification time of up to 48 h. The sensitivity field of the TC central latitude with respect to the vorticity field obtained from large-scale random initial perturbation is characterized by a horizontally tilted pattern centered at the initial TC position. These sensitivity signals are generally maximized in the middle troposphere and are far more significant than those with respect to the divergence field. The results are consistent with the sensitivity signals obtained from existing methods. The verification experiments indicate that the signals from TyPOS quantitatively reflect an ensemble-mean position change as a response to the initial perturbation. Another experiment with Typhoon Dolphin (2008) demonstrates the long-term analysis of forecast sensitivity up to 96 h. Several additional tests have also been carried out to investigate the dependency among ensemble members, the impacts of using different horizontal grid spacing, and the effectiveness of ensemble-Kalman-filter-based perturbations. 1. Introduction Meteorological Agency 2010). Therefore, reducing track forecast errors remains one of the major issues for TC In terms of disaster prevention and mitigation asso- researchers and operational centers. ciated with tropical cyclones (TCs), the accuracy of track The errors in weather forecasts are mainly associated forecasts is critical because forecasts of the intensity and with two factors: imperfections of the numerical model the rainfall amount can result in large errors if the track and errors in the initial conditions (Yoden 2007). For forecast is inadequate (Wu and Kuo 1999; Chan 2010). a given model, additional observations from critical re- During past decades, the physical processes governing gions are supposed to reduce uncertainties in the initial the movement of TCs have been intensively investigated conditions and lead to a better forecast. For the purpose (Wu and Emanuel 1993; Elsberry 1995; Chan 2010). The of reducing errors in the track forecast, aircraft-borne 48-h track error has been almost halved owing to in- observations have been ‘‘targeted’’ in the synoptic en- creased observations and many improvements in nu- vironment of TCs. At present, operational surveillance merical weather prediction systems (National Hurricane observations of TCs have been conducted by the National Center 2012). However, ‘‘busted’’ cases in which track Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) in forecast errors exceed 1000 km in a 72-h forecast still the Atlantic basin since 1997 (Aberson and Franklin occasionally occur (Yamaguchi et al. 2009, 2012; Japan 1999; Aberson 2003) and by the Dropwindsonde Ob- servations for Typhoon Surveillance near the Taiwan Region (DOTSTAR) project (Wu et al. 2005) for se- Corresponding author address: Chun-Chieh Wu, Department of Atmospheric Sciences, National Taiwan University, 1, Sec. 4, lected western North Pacific TCs since 2003. In the Roosevelt Rd., Taipei 10617, Taiwan. summer of 2008, the issue of targeted observation was E-mail: [email protected] further explored in the Observing System Research and DOI: 10.1175/JAS-D-12-0301.1 Ó 2013 American Meteorological Society Unauthenticated | Downloaded 09/26/21 09:37 PM UTC 2526 JOURNAL OF THE ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES VOLUME 70 Predictability Experiment (THORPEX) Pacific Asian 2012). The ensemble-based sensitivity analysis has also Regional Campaign (T-PARC; Elsberry and Harr 2008; been used to correct the displacement error suitable for Weissmann et al. 2011; Chou et al. 2011; Wu et al. 2012a,b; real-world observations using the data assimilation tech- Huang et al. 2012). nique (Aonashi and Eito 2011). These approaches moti- Several techniques for targeted observation guidance vate us to calculate the sensitivity field by employing TC have been developed and compared to each other to position directly as a metric. Using this metric allows us to identify ‘‘sensitive’’ regions (Majumdar et al. 2006; bypass the requirement of defining the metric associated Reynolds et al. 2007; Wu et al. 2009a). These techniques with TC motion and to perform sensitivity analysis with- include the total energy singular vector (SV) method out constructing tangent linear and adjoint models. used by the Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Pre- In this study, we apply TyPOS to Typhoons Shanshan diction System (NOGAPS; Peng and Reynolds 2006; (2006) and Dolphin (2008). The synoptic sensitivity field Chen et al. 2009), the European Centre for Medium- affecting the TC motion is shown and verification tests Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF; Buizza et al. 2007), are conducted to evaluate the response of the TC dis- the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA; Yamaguchi placement to initial perturbations. This work is the first et al. 2009), and Yonsei University (YSU; Kim and Jung attempt to quantify the direction and distance of the TC 2009; Kim et al. 2011); the adjoint-derived sensitivity vortex displacement directly by using the sensitivity field. steering vector (ADSSV) guidance (Wu et al. 2007, A companion paper (hereafter referred to as Part II) will 2009b; Chen et al. 2011); the ensemble transform Kalman describe comparisons with other methods and provide filter (ETKF; Majumdar et al. 2006, 2011); the analysis physical interpretations of the sensitivity field in detail. of ensemble deep-layer-mean (DLM) wind variance (Aberson 2003); and the conditional nonlinear optimal 2. Theoretical background perturbation (CNOP) method (Mu et al. 2009). While TC track forecasts have been improved with additional a. Review of ensemble-based sensitivity observations in sensitive areas (e.g., Chou and Wu 2008; TyPOS is based on the ensemble-based sensitivity Yamaguchi et al. 2009; Chou et al. 2011), some differ- analysis recently developed by several researchers ences can be found among different methods (Majumdar (Martin and Xue 2006; Ancell and Hakim 2007; Torn et al. 2006; Wu et al. 2009a). These differences stem from and Hakim 2008, 2009; Liu et al. 2008; Gombos and the different approaches to detect the sensitivity on TC Hansen 2008; Sugiura 2010; Aonashi and Eito 2011). motion as well as the different numerical models and Here, we briefly outline this sensitivity analysis technique configurations used (Wu et al. 2009b; Kim et al. 2011). in a generalized manner. One potential way for further elaborating the sensi- Let x and j be an n degree-of-freedom input vector tivity analysis method is to employ TC position as a and output scalar, respectively. The input vector repre- metric, whereas existing methods use only TC steering sents the perturbations in the physical variables at the flow (ADSSV) or total energy norms (SV, ETKF, and initial time and the output scalar is a forecast metric. CNOP) at the verification time. The metrics employed Considering m realizations of the input vector, x 5 in the existing studies are presumably relevant to TC i (x , x , ..., x ), where i(i 5 1, 2, ..., m) represents the motion, and several studies have shown that these 1,i 2,i n,i index of each ensemble member, with corresponding m methods can help capture the effect of synoptic features realizations of j , we define matrix X and vector j as and binary interactions (e.g., Peng et al. 2007; Wu et al. i follows: 2007). Nevertheless, it is worth investigating a more di- rect evaluation of the sensitivity field on TC tracks by 1 X 5 pffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffi(dx , dx , ... , dx )T, and (1) using TC position as a metric. m 2 1 1 2 m In this study, we propose a typhoon-position-oriented sensitivity analysis (TyPOS), which directly takes a TC 1 j 5 pffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffi(dj , dj , ... , dj )T . (2) position as a metric, for the ensemble prediction system. m 2 1 1 2 m This technique is based on the ensemble-based sensi- tivity analysis method (Martin and Xue 2006; Ancell and Matrix X is composed of dxi and the vector j is composed Hakim 2007; Torn and Hakim 2008, 2009; Liu et al. 2008; of dji, where d indicates deviations from ensemble-mean Gombos and Hansen 2008; Sugiura 2010; Aonashi and values; that is, dxi 5 xi 2 hxi and dji 5 ji 2 h ji. The angle Eito 2011). It has been applied to the sensitivity analysis brackets denote the ensemble mean and superscript T of the minimum sea level pressure (SLP) and the root- denotes the transpose. Note that the deviations are not mean-square error of SLP of TCs (Torn and Hakim 2009) necessarily infinitesimal, while Ancell and Hakim (2007) as well as the 1000-hPa potential vorticity (Gombos et al. introduced the assumption ›J/›x ’ dJ/dx. Unauthenticated | Downloaded 09/26/21 09:37 PM UTC AUGUST 2013 I T O A N D W U 2527 The generalized ensemble-based sensitivity is defined as follows (Gombos and Hansen 2008): lj [ X1 x j, (3) where the plus sign superscript indicates the Moore– Penrose generalized inverse matrix,1 which can be computed from the equation below: 1 1 X 5 VD UT , (4) 1 where X 5 UD VT is the singular value decomposition 1 of X.
Load more

Recommended publications
  • Effects of Constructing a New Airport on Ishigaki Island
    Island Sustainability II 181 Effects of constructing a new airport on Ishigaki Island Y. Maeno1, H. Gotoh1, M. Takezawa1 & T. Satoh2 1Nihon University, Japan 2Nihon Harbor Consultants Ltd., Japan Abstract Okinawa Prefecture marked the 40th anniversary of its reversion to Japanese sovereignty from US control in 2012. Such isolated islands are almost under the environment separated by the mainland and the sea, so that they have the economic differences from the mainland and some policies for being active isolated islands are taken. It is necessary to promote economical measures in order to increase the prosperity of isolated islands through initiatives involving tourism, fisheries, manufacturing, etc. In this study, Ishigaki Island was considered as an example of such an isolated island. Ishigaki Island is located to the west of the main islands of Okinawa and the second-largest island of the Yaeyama Island group. Ishigaki Island falls under the jurisdiction of Okinawa Prefecture, Japan’s southernmost prefecture, which is situated approximately half-way between Kyushu and Taiwan. Both islands belong to the Ryukyu Archipelago, which consists of more than 100 islands extending over an area of 1,000 km from Kyushu (the southwesternmost of Japan’s four main islands) to Taiwan in the south. Located between China and mainland Japan, Ishigaki Island has been culturally influenced by both countries. Much of the island and the surrounding ocean are protected as part of Iriomote-Ishigaki National Park. Ishigaki Airport, built in 1943, is the largest airport in the Yaeyama Island group. The runway and air security facilities were improved in accordance with passenger demand for larger aircraft, and the airport became a tentative jet airport in May 1979.
    [Show full text]
  • Structural and Intensity Changes of Concentric Eyewall Typhoons in the Western North Pacific Basin
    2632 MONTHLY WEATHER REVIEW VOLUME 141 Structural and Intensity Changes of Concentric Eyewall Typhoons in the Western North Pacific Basin YI-TING YANG AND HUNG-CHI KUO Department of Atmospheric Sciences, National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan ERIC A. HENDRICKS AND MELINDA S. PENG Naval Research Laboratory, Monterey, California (Manuscript received 31 August 2012, in final form 7 February 2013) ABSTRACT An objective method is developed to identify concentric eyewalls (CEs) for typhoons using passive mi- crowave satellite imagery from 1997 to 2011 in the western North Pacific basin. Three CE types are identified: a CE with an eyewall replacement cycle (ERC; 37 cases), a CE with no replacement cycle (NRC; 17 cases), and a CE that is maintained for an extended period (CEM; 16 cases). The inner eyewall (outer eyewall) of the ERC (NRC) type dissipates within 20 h after CE formation. The CEM type has its CE structure maintained for more than 20 h (mean duration time is 31 h). Structural and intensity changes of CE typhoons are dem- onstrated using a T–Vmax diagram (where T is the brightness temperature and Vmax is the best-track es- timated intensity) for a time sequence of the intensity and convective activity (CA) relationship. While the intensity of typhoons in the ERC and CEM cases weakens after CE formation, the CA is maintained or increases. In contrast, the CA weakens in the NRC cases. The NRC (CEM) cases typically have fast (slow) northward translational speeds and encounter large (small) vertical shear and low (high) sea surface tem- 2 peratures. The CEM cases have a relatively high intensity (63 m s 1), and the moat size (61 km) and outer eyewall width (70 km) are approximately 50% larger than the other two categories.
    [Show full text]
  • Impact of GPS Radio Occultation Measurements on Severe Weather Prediction in Asia
    Impact of GPS Radio Occultation Measurements on Severe Weather Prediction in Asia Ching-Yuang Huang1, Ying-Hwa Kuo2,3, Shu-Ya Chen1, Mien-Tze Kueh1, Pai-Liam Lin1, Chuen-Tsyr Terng4, Fang-Ching Chien5, Ming-Jen Yang1, Song-Chin Lin1, Kuo-Ying Wang1, Shu-Hua Chen6, Chien-Ju Wang1 1 and Anisetty S.K.A.V. Prasad Rao 1Department of Atmospheric Sciences, National Central University, Jhongli, Taiwan 2University Corporation for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado, USA 3National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado, USA 4Central Weather Bureau, Taipei, Taiwan 5Department of Earth Sciences, National Taiwan Normal University, Taipei, Taiwan 6Department of Land, Air & Water Resources, University of California, Davis, California, USA Abstract The impact of GPS radio occultation (RO) refractivity measurements on severe weather prediction in Asia was reviewed. Both the local operator that assimilates the retrieved refractivity as local point measurements and the nonlocal operator that assimilates the integrated retrieved refractivity along a straight raypath have been employed in WRF 3DVAR to improve the model initial analysis. We provide a general evaluation of the impact of these approaches on Asian regional analysis and daily prediction. GPS RO data assimilation was found beneficial for some periods of the predictions. In particular, such data improved prediction of severe weather such as typhoons and Mei-yu systems when COSMIC data were available, ranging from several points in 2006 to a maximum of about 60 in 2007 and 2008 in this region. These positive impacts are seen not only in typhoon track prediction but also in prediction of local heavy rainfall associated with severe weather over Taiwan.
    [Show full text]
  • Downloaded 10/07/21 07:35 AM UTC 2472 MONTHLY WEATHER REVIEW VOLUME 137
    AUGUST 2009 W U E T A L . 2471 Intercomparison of Targeted Observation Guidance for Tropical Cyclones in the Northwestern Pacific CHUN-CHIEH WU,* JAN-HUEY CHEN,* SHARANYA J. MAJUMDAR,1 MELINDA S. PENG,# CAROLYN A. REYNOLDS,# SIM D. ABERSON,@ ROBERTO BUIZZA,& MUNEHIKO YAMAGUCHI,** SHIN-GAN CHEN,* TETSUO NAKAZAWA,11 AND KUN-HSUAN CHOU## * Department of Atmospheric Sciences, National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan 1 RSMAS Division of Meteorology and Physical Oceanography, University of Miami, Miami, Florida # Naval Research Laboratory, Monterey, California @ NOAA/AOML Hurricane Research Division, Miami, Florida & European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Reading, United Kingdom ** Japan Meteorological Agency, Tokyo, Japan 11 Meteorological Research Institute, Japan Meteorological Agency, Tokyo, Japan ## Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Chinese Culture University, Taipei, Taiwan (Manuscript received 19 August 2008, in final form 4 February 2009) ABSTRACT This study compares six different guidance products for targeted observations over the northwest Pacific Ocean for 84 cases of 2-day forecasts in 2006 and highlights the unique dynamical features affecting the tropical cyclone (TC) tracks in this basin. The six products include three types of guidance based on total- energy singular vectors (TESVs) from different global models, the ensemble transform Kalman filter (ETKF) based on a multimodel ensemble, the deep-layer mean (DLM) wind variance, and the adjoint- derived sensitivity steering vector (ADSSV). The similarities among the six products are evaluated using two objective statistical techniques to show the diversity of the sensitivity regions in large, synoptic-scale domains and in smaller domains local to the TC. It is shown that the three TESVs are relatively similar to one another in both the large and the small domains while the comparisons of the DLM wind variance with other methods show rather low similarities.
    [Show full text]
  • Interpretation of Tropical Cyclone Forecast Sensitivity from the Singular Vector Perspective
    NOVEMBER 2009 C H E N E T A L . 3383 Interpretation of Tropical Cyclone Forecast Sensitivity from the Singular Vector Perspective JAN-HUEY CHEN Department of Atmospheric Sciences, National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan MELINDA S. PENG AND CAROLYN A. REYNOLDS Naval Research Laboratory, Monterey, California CHUN-CHIEH WU Department of Atmospheric Sciences, National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan (Manuscript received 6 January 2009, in final form 3 June 2009) ABSTRACT In this study, the leading singular vectors (SVs), which are the fastest-growing perturbations (in a linear sense) to a given forecast, are used to examine and classify the dynamic relationship between tropical cyclones (TCs) and synoptic-scale environmental features that influence their evolution. Based on the 72 two-day forecasts of the 18 western North Pacific TCs in 2006, the SVs are constructed to optimize perturbation energy within a 2083208 latitude–longitude box centered on the 48-h forecast position of the TCs using the Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System (NOGAPS) forecast and adjoint systems. Composite techniques are employed to explore these relationships and highlight how the dominant synoptic-scale fea- tures that impact TC forecasts evolve on seasonal time scales. The NOGAPS initial SVs show several different patterns that highlight the relationship between the TC forecast sensitivity and the environment during the western North Pacific typhoon season in 2006. In addition to the relation of the SV maximum to the inward flow region of the TC, there are three patterns identified where the local SV maxima collocate with low-radial-wind-speed regions. These regions are likely caused by the confluence of the flow associated with the TC itself and the flow from other synoptic systems, such as the subtropical high and the midlatitude jet.
    [Show full text]
  • Presentation
    OperationalOperational ForecastingForecasting ofof MarineMarine MeteorologyMeteorology byby ModelModel andand ObservationObservation inin KMAKMA Jang-Won SEO Global Environment Research Lab. National Institute of Meteorological Research DBCP-XXIII Session of the Data Buoy Cooperation Panel , 15-19 October 2007 Jeju, Korea DBCP-XXIII Session of the Data Buoy Cooperation Panel If you are marine forecaster, What system do you need ? z First of all, necessity of numerical models z In order to set up the model, need to observing system z Consider the local features of high wave & tide, swell and inundation in the low level coast (experiences, tide model, spectral wave model and statistical method) z The high resolution model needed (super computer) z Demand the synthetic judgment (monitoring system) Global Environment Research Lab. / METRI TheThe WaveWave ObservationObservation NetworkNetwork byby KMAKMA BuoyBuoy Local Buoy Installation Location depth Parameters (m) `96. 7 15 km west of Dukjok island Wind direction Dukjok-Do 30 (05.12 replacement) 37°14’ N, 126 °01’ E Wind speed `96. 7 2 km northwest of Chilbal island Gust Chilbal-Do 33 (05.12 replacement) 34°48’ N, 125 °47’ E Pressure Moisture `97. 5 14 km east of Geomun island Geomun-Do 79 Temperature (06.09 replacement) 34°00’ N, 127 °30’ E Max. Wave height `98. 5 16 km east of Geoje island Geoje-Do 84 Sig. Wave height (06.10 replacement) 34°46’ N, 128 °54’ E Ave. Wave height 70 km east of Donghae city Wave period Donghae `01. 5 1520 37°32’ N, 130 °00’ E Wave direction Dong Du hae kjo k
    [Show full text]
  • GPSRO Impacts on Typhoon Predictions Over Northwest Pacific
    Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Atmos. Meas. Tech. Discuss., 8, 1301–1331, 2015 www.atmos-meas-tech-discuss.net/8/1301/2015/ doi:10.5194/amtd-8-1301-2015 AMTD © Author(s) 2015. CC Attribution 3.0 License. 8, 1301–1331, 2015 This discussion paper is/has been under review for the journal Atmospheric Measurement GPSRO impacts on Techniques (AMT). Please refer to the corresponding final paper in AMT if available. typhoon predictions over Northwest Systematic evaluation of the impacts of Pacific GPSRO data on the prediction of Y.-C. Chen et al. typhoons over the Northwestern Pacific in Title Page 2008–2010 Abstract Introduction Conclusions References Y.-C. Chen1, M.-E. Hsieh1, L.-F. Hsiao1, Y.-H. Kuo2, M.-J. Yang3, C.-Y. Huang4, and 1 C.-S. Lee Tables Figures 1Taiwan Typhoon and Flood Research Institute, National Applied Research Laboratories, Taipei, Taiwan J I 2 National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado, USA J I 3National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan 4National Central University, Jhongli, Taoyuan County, Taiwan Back Close Received: 31 October 2014 – Accepted: 12 January 2015 – Published: 29 January 2015 Full Screen / Esc Correspondence to: Y.-C. Chen ([email protected]) Printer-friendly Version Published by Copernicus Publications on behalf of the European Geosciences Union. Interactive Discussion 1301 Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Discussion Paper | Abstract AMTD In this paper, we perform a systematic evaluation of the impact of Global Positioning System radio occultation (GPSRO) data on typhoon track prediction over the North- 8, 1301–1331, 2015 western Pacific. Specifically, we perform data assimilation and forecast experiments 5 using the Typhoon Weather Research and Forecasting (TWRF) system at 45 km res- GPSRO impacts on olution on eleven typhoons (with a total of 327 cases) in the period of 2008–2010 typhoon predictions over the Northwestern Pacific, with or without the use of GPSRO refractivity observa- over Northwest tions.
    [Show full text]
  • Appendix (PDF:4.3MB)
    APPENDIX TABLE OF CONTENTS: APPENDIX 1. Overview of Japan’s National Land Fig. A-1 Worldwide Hypocenter Distribution (for Magnitude 6 and Higher Earthquakes) and Plate Boundaries ..................................................................................................... 1 Fig. A-2 Distribution of Volcanoes Worldwide ............................................................................ 1 Fig. A-3 Subduction Zone Earthquake Areas and Major Active Faults in Japan .......................... 2 Fig. A-4 Distribution of Active Volcanoes in Japan ...................................................................... 4 2. Disasters in Japan Fig. A-5 Major Earthquake Damage in Japan (Since the Meiji Period) ....................................... 5 Fig. A-6 Major Natural Disasters in Japan Since 1945 ................................................................. 6 Fig. A-7 Number of Fatalities and Missing Persons Due to Natural Disasters ............................. 8 Fig. A-8 Breakdown of the Number of Fatalities and Missing Persons Due to Natural Disasters ......................................................................................................................... 9 Fig. A-9 Recent Major Natural Disasters (Since the Great Hanshin-Awaji Earthquake) ............ 10 Fig. A-10 Establishment of Extreme Disaster Management Headquarters and Major Disaster Management Headquarters ........................................................................... 21 Fig. A-11 Dispatchment of Government Investigation Teams (Since
    [Show full text]
  • Summary of 2006 NW Pacific Typhoon Season and Verification of Authors’ Seasonal Forecasts
    Summary of 2006 NW Pacific Typhoon Season and Verification of Authors’ Seasonal Forecasts Issued: 10th January 2007 by Professor Mark Saunders and Dr Adam Lea Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre, UCL (University College London), UK. Summary A year with near-average activity as defined by the basin ACE (Accumulated Cyclone Energy) index but where the numbers of intense typhoons were in the upper tercile and the number of tropical storms were in the lower tercile. The TSR probabilistic forecasts with the exception of the early July forecast all correctly predicted the near-average ACE index activity. The TSR deterministic forecasts performed well for the ACE index but over-predicted the number of tropical storms and typhoons. The Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) consortium presents a validation of their seasonal probabilistic and deterministic forecasts for the NW Pacific basin ACE index, and deterministic forecasts for the numbers of intense typhoons, typhoons and tropical storms in 2006. These forecasts were issued monthly from 7th March 2006 to the 4th August 2006 for the 2006 NW Pacific typhoon season which ran from 1st January to 31st December 2006. Features of the 2006 NW Pacific Season • The 2006 NW Pacific season featured 24 tropical storms, 15 typhoons, 11 intense typhoons and an ACE index of 317 x104 knots2. • Damage from typhoons was higher in 2006 than in 2005. The total economic and insured losses are estimated to be US$ 15bn and US$ 1.5bn respectively (Munich Re, 2006). • The most costly storm was typhoon Shanshan which struck west Japan in mid September causing total and insured losses of US$ 2.5bn and US$ 1.2bn respectively.
    [Show full text]
  • Topics Geo Natural Catastrophes 2006 Analyses, Assessments, Positions Topics Geo 2006
    Knowledge series Knowledge series Topics Geo Natural catastrophes 2006 Analyses, assessments, positions Topics Geo 2006 Topics © 2007 Münchener Rück Munich Re Group Münchener Rückversicherungs-Gesellschaft Königinstrasse 107 80802 München Germany Order number 302-05217 Contents © 2007 Picture credits Münchener Rückversicherungs-Gesellschaft Cover: Michael Spranger, Hong Kong Königinstrasse 107 Inside front cover: Reuters, Berlin 2 In focus 80802 München pp. 2/3: Reuters, Berlin Germany p. 9: Reuters, Berlin Tel.: +49(89) 38 91-0 pp.10/11: Jan Pitman/Getty Images 5 Lull in the North Atlantic? Fax: +49 (89) 39 90 56 p. 17: picture-alliance/dpa/dpaweb http://www.munichre.com p. 19: Torsten Blackwood/AFP/Getty Images 10 Catastrophe portraits p. 22 left: www.101box.com Supervisory Board p. 22 right: www.jorgent.com Dr. jur. Hans-Jürgen Schinzler (Chairman), p. 23: Ian Hitchcock/Getty Images 13 Winter 2005–2006 in Europe – An exception? Herbert Bach, Hans-Georg Appel, p. 25: Joel Nito/AFP/Getty Images 18 Stormy times down under Holger Emmert, Ulrich Hartmann, p. 29: Michael Spranger, Hong Kong Dr. rer. nat. Rainer Janßen, p. 30 left, right: Michael Spranger, Hong Kong 24 2006 typhoon season in the Northwest Pacific Prof. Dr. rer. nat. Henning Kagermann, p. 33: Reuters, Berlin 28 The Yogyakarta earthquake Prof. Dr. rer. nat. Drs. h. c. mult. Hubert Markl, p. 35 top, bottom: Reuters, Berlin 32 Tsunami strikes Java Wolfgang Mayrhuber, Kerstin Michl, pp. 36/37: Reuters, Berlin Cover: Prof. Karel Van Miert, Ingrid Müller, p. 41: Thomas Loster, Munich In the early hours of 27 May 2006, the densely Prof.
    [Show full text]
  • A Probabilistic Approach to Tropical Cyclone Conditions of Readiness (TCCOR)
    View metadata, citation and similar papers at core.ac.uk brought to you by CORE provided by Calhoun, Institutional Archive of the Naval Postgraduate School Calhoun: The NPS Institutional Archive Theses and Dissertations Thesis Collection 2008-09 A probabilistic approach to Tropical Cyclone Conditions of Readiness (TCCOR) Wallace, Kenneth A. Monterey, California. Naval Postgraduate School http://hdl.handle.net/10945/3923 NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL MONTEREY, CALIFORNIA THESIS A PROBABILISTIC APPROACH TO TROPICAL CYCLONE CONDITIONS OF READINESS (TCCOR) by Kenneth A. Wallace September 2008 Thesis Advisor: Patrick A. Harr Second Reader: Jim Hansen Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited THIS PAGE INTENTIONALLY LEFT BLANK REPORT DOCUMENTATION PAGE Form Approved OMB No. 0704-0188 Public reporting burden for this collection of information is estimated to average 1 hour per response, including the time for reviewing instruction, searching existing data sources, gathering and maintaining the data needed, and completing and reviewing the collection of information. Send comments regarding this burden estimate or any other aspect of this collection of information, including suggestions for reducing this burden, to Washington headquarters Services, Directorate for Information Operations and Reports, 1215 Jefferson Davis Highway, Suite 1204, Arlington, VA 22202-4302, and to the Office of Management and Budget, Paperwork Reduction Project (0704-0188) Washington DC 20503. 1. AGENCY USE ONLY (Leave blank) 2. REPORT DATE 3. REPORT TYPE AND DATES COVERED September 2008 Master’s Thesis 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE: A Probabilistic Approach to Tropical Cyclone 5. FUNDING NUMBERS Conditions of Readiness (TCCOR) 6. AUTHOR(S) Kenneth A. Wallace 7. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION NAME(S) AND ADDRESS(ES) 8.
    [Show full text]
  • Annual Review 2007
    ESCAP/WMO TCAR 2007 Typhoon Committee Over 40 years of InternationalAnnual Cooperation Review Kong-Rey Yutu Toraji Man-Yi Usagi Pabuk Wutip Sepat Fitow Danas Nari Wipha Francisco Lekima Krosa Haiyan Podul Lingling Kajiki Faxai Peipah Tapah Mitag Hagibis ESCAP/ WMO Typhoon Committee 20071 ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee Annual Review 2007 On the Cover: MTSAT-1R VS imagery of SEPAT (0708) at 00UTC, 16 August 2007.(By courtesy of Japan Meteorological Agency) The headquarters of the Typhoon Committee Secretariat. 2 TCAR Contents 2007 CONTENTS ESCAP, WMO and the ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee 7 Typhoon Committee (2006 – 2007) 9 ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee Annual Review 2007 Editorial Board 11 Foreword 13 Introduction 15 Chapter 1 Typhoon Committee Activities 2007 1.1 Meteorology 17 1.2 Hydrology 105 1.3 Disaster Prevention and Preparedness (DPP) 153 1.4 Typhoon Committee Secretariat (TCS) 195 Chapter 2 Tropical Cyclones in 2007 2.1 Overview 197 2.2 Report on individual tropical cyclones which affected Members of the Typhoon Committee 2.2.1 Kong-Rey (0701) 204 2.2.2 Yutu (0702) 206 2.2.3 Toraji (0703) 208 2.2.4 Man-Yi (0704) 210 2.2.5 Usagi (0705) 212 2.2.7 Wutip (0707) 216 2.2.8 Sepat (0708) 218 2.2.9 Fitow (0709) 220 2.2.10 Danas (0710) 222 2.2.11 Nari (0711) 224 2.2.12 Wipha (0712) 226 2.2.13 Francisco (0713) 228 2.2.14 Lekima (0714) 230 2.2.15 Krosa (0715) 232 2.2.16 Haiyan (0716) 234 2.2.17 Podul (0717) 236 2.2.18 Lingling (0718) 238 2.2.19 Kajiki (0719) 240 2.2.20 Faxai (0720) 242 2.2.21 Peipah (0721) 244 2.2.22 Tapah (0722) 246 2.2.23 Mitag (0723) 248 2.2.24 Hagibis (0724) 250 3 ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee Annual Review 2007 Chapter 3 Contributed Papers Zhiyu Liu, Bureau of Hydrology, Ministry of Water Resources of China “Mountainous Torrent Disasters and Approaches to Flash Flood Early Warning in China” 253 Mr.
    [Show full text]