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Arran & Campbeltown Mainland Ferry Terminal – Appraisal of Options Final Report – Redacted Version Operator and Financial Material Commercially Confidential On behalf of Transport Scotland Project Ref: 39975 | Rev: SC | Date: March 2017 Office Address: 3rd Floor, Exchange Place 3, 3 Semple Street, Edinburgh EH3 8BL T: +44 (0)131 297 7010 E: [email protected] Final Report Arran & Campbeltown Mainland Ferry Terminal – Appraisal of Options Document Control Sheet Project Name: Arran & Campbeltown Mainland Ferry Terminal – Appraisal of Options Project Ref: 39975 Report Title: Final Report – Redacted Version Date: 16 March 2017 Name Position Signature Date Stephen Associate – Prepared by: 31/01/2017 Canning Transport Planner Director, Transport Reviewed by: Scott Leitham 09/03/2017 Planning Director, Transport Approved by: Paul McCartney 09/03/2017 Economics For and on behalf of Peter Brett Associates LLP Revision Date Description Prepared Reviewed Approved Updated of the Interim Report Interim - 09/02/17 based on TS comments to SC SL PMcC V2.0 produce final report Update of Version 2.0 to take Interim - account of further TS comments, 16/02/17 SC SL PMcC V3.0 haulier consultation & TS Rail Team comments Final report including cost model Final V1.0 28/02/17 SC SL PMcC and simulations. Final report including cost model Final V2.0 09/03/17 SC SL PMcC and simulations. Final report including edited Final V2.1 10/03/17 SC SL PMcC proposal sections. Final V2.2 16/03/17 Final report SC SL PMcC This report has been prepared by Peter Brett Associates LLP (‘PBA’) on behalf of its client to whom this report is addressed (‘Client’) in connection with the project described in this report and takes into account the Client's particular instructions and requirements. This report was prepared in accordance with the professional services appointment under which PBA was appointed by its Client. This report is not intended for and should not be relied on by any third party (i.e. parties other than the Client). PBA accepts no duty or responsibility (including in negligence) to any party other than the Client and disclaims all liability of any nature whatsoever to any such party in respect of this report. © Peter Brett Associates LLP 2017 ii Final Report Arran & Campbeltown Mainland Ferry Terminal – Appraisal of Options Contents Executive Summary .............................................................................................................................. 7 1 Introduction ............................................................................................................................... 12 1.1 Overview ...................................................................................................................... 12 1.2 Study Remit ................................................................................................................. 12 1.3 Current Carryings ........................................................................................................ 13 2 Ardrossan & Troon – Ferry Operations .................................................................................. 15 2.1 Overview ...................................................................................................................... 15 2.2 Current & Future Vessels ............................................................................................ 15 2.3 Distances, Sailing Times and Fares ............................................................................ 16 2.4 Tides ............................................................................................................................ 23 2.5 Berthing ....................................................................................................................... 24 2.6 Limitations, Conditions & Sea State ............................................................................ 26 3 Summary of Proposals ............................................................................................................. 28 3.1 Overview ...................................................................................................................... 28 3.2 Ardrossan – Peel Ports ............................................................................................... 28 3.3 Troon – Associated British Ports ................................................................................. 32 4 Reliability ................................................................................................................................... 37 4.1 Overview ...................................................................................................................... 37 4.2 Simulations .................................................................................................................. 37 4.3 Operator Data .............................................................................................................. 37 4.4 P&O Ferries Data ........................................................................................................ 42 4.5 Views of Master Mariners ............................................................................................ 44 4.6 Conclusions ................................................................................................................. 50 5 Onward Transport Connectivity .............................................................................................. 51 5.1 Overview ...................................................................................................................... 51 5.2 Physical Infrastructure ................................................................................................. 51 5.3 Public Transport Connectivity ...................................................................................... 52 5.4 Road Connections ....................................................................................................... 57 5.5 Carryings Analysis ....................................................................................................... 58 5.6 Accessibility Analysis................................................................................................... 60 5.7 Summary ..................................................................................................................... 72 6 Socio-Economic Issues ............................................................................................................ 73 6.1 Overview ...................................................................................................................... 73 6.2 Census Travel-to-Work ............................................................................................... 73 6.3 Direct Employment Impacts ........................................................................................ 75 6.4 Local Authority Services .............................................................................................. 76 6.5 Evidence on Local Spend ............................................................................................ 76 6.6 Impact on the Haulage Industry .................................................................................. 77 iii Final Report Arran & Campbeltown Mainland Ferry Terminal – Appraisal of Options 6.7 Future of Ardrossan Harbour Branch Line .................................................................. 78 7 Assessment against STAG Criteria ......................................................................................... 80 7.1 Overview ...................................................................................................................... 80 7.2 Environment ................................................................................................................ 80 7.3 Safety .......................................................................................................................... 81 7.4 Economy ...................................................................................................................... 82 7.5 Integration .................................................................................................................... 85 7.6 Accessibility & Social Inclusion ................................................................................... 85 7.7 Technical Feasibility .................................................................................................... 86 7.8 Operational Feasibility ................................................................................................. 86 7.9 Public Acceptability...................................................................................................... 86 8 Cost to Government .................................................................................................................. 88 8.1 Overview ...................................................................................................................... 88 8.2 Cost Model .................................................................................................................. 88 8.3 Summary of Results .................................................................................................... 91 9 Risk & Uncertainty .................................................................................................................... 93 9.1 Overview .....................................................................................................................