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ECONOMÍA POLÍTICA ARGENTINA Cómo Revertir La Decadencia Argentina

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ECONOMÍA POLÍTICA ARGENTINA Cómo Revertir La Decadencia Argentina SU PROHIBIDA REPRODUCCIÓN ECONOMÍA POLÍTICA ARGENTINA Cómo revertir la decadencia argentina SU PROHIBIDA REPRODUCCIÓN Conesa, Eduardo Economía Política Argentina / Eduardo Conesa; Luis Alberto Rey. - 1a ed. - Ciudad Autónoma de Buenos Aires: Prosa y Poesía Amerian Editores, 2020. 828 p.; 23 x 15 cm. ISBN 978-987-729-570-2 1. Economía Política Argentina. 2. Historia Económica Argentina. I. Rey, Luis Alberto. II. Título. CDD 338.982 SU PROHIBIDA www.eduardoconesa.com.ar www.diputadoconesa.com Twitter: edconesa Facebook: eduardo.conesa.144 REPRODUCCIÓN PROSA Editores, 2020 Uruguay 1371 - C.A.Bs.As. Tel: 4815-6031 / 0448 [email protected] www.prosaeditores.com.ar ISBN Nro: 978-987-729-570-2 Hecho el depósito que marca la ley 11.723 Reservados todos los derechos. Prohibida su reproducción total o parcial por cualquier medio o procedimiento sin permiso escrito del autor. ECONOMÍA POLÍTICA ARGENTINA Cómo revertir la decadencia argentina POR EDUARDO R. CONESA Y LUIS A. REY Con la colaboración SUde Gustavo Zunino PROHIBIDA REPRODUCCIÓN SU PROHIBIDA REPRODUCCIÓN ÍNDICE PRÓLOGO 11 INTRODUCCIÓN 19 La Economía Política de la Revolución de Mayo CAPÍTULO I 47 El modelo clásico de la Economía Política CAPÍTULO II 77 La falencia de la Economía Política clásica ante los tipos de cambio fijos con patrón oro entre 1923 y 1944 CAPÍTULO III 93 El tipo de cambio real como variable político-estratégica crucial para el desarrollo económico CAPÍTULO IV SU 109 La Argentina liberalPROHIBIDA desarrollista de 1860-1943: tipo de cambio competitivo, educación, exportación y creci- miento económico CAPÍTULO V 141 El amiguismo de los nombramientosREPRODUCCIÓN en el Estado y la decadencia argentina CAPÍTULO VI 161 La revolución keynesiana, la función del consumo y sus cuatro multiplicadores de la actividad económica. La importancia del multiplicador del comercio exterior en la Argentina CAPÍTULO VII 173 Argentina: país con tipo de cambio real de “casino” des- de 1947 hasta 2020 7 CAPÍTULO VIII 181 ¿La causa de la inflación es la devaluación? CAPÍTULO IX 185 Cuando sube el tipo de cambio real, ¿baja el salario real? CAPÍTULO X 209 La filosofía económica del liberalismo barato y el tipo de cambio bajo: Supply-Side Economics CAPÍTULO XI 239 El nivel del tipo de cambio real determina el saldo de la balanza de comercio: déficit si el tipo de cambio es bajo, superávit, si es alto CAPÍTULO XII 247 La moneda y el Banco Central CAPÍTULO XIII 267 La dolarización y sus problemas CAPÍTULO XIV 279 La solución bimonetaria y “la economíaSU de casino” PROHIBIDA CAPÍTULO XV 287 El remedio contra la manía de comprar dólares: el siste- ma monetario chileno de la UF. Desaparece la “econo- mía de casino” REPRODUCCIÓN CAPÍTULO XVI 309 La macroeconomía keynesiana según John Hicks CAPÍTULO XVII 317 Tipos de cambio fijos o fluctuantes en economías abier- tas: el modelo keynesiano de Mundell-Fleming CAPÍTULO XVIII 327 Las consecuencias para la Argentina del proteccionismo agrícola mundial y, en especial, el europeo, promovido por Francia. El caso del proteccionismo moderado de Australia 8 CAPÍTULO XIX 357 Los problemas jurídicos de la deuda externa argentina CAPÍTULO XX 405 La Constitución Nacional versus los Tratados de Protección de Inversiones (TPI) y el Ciadi CAPÍTULO XXI 429 Se repite la tragedia económica y política de la deuda externa argentina CAPÍTULO XXII 463 La crisis mundial de las hipotecas de 2007-2009 y las consecuencias del gobierno de los banqueros CAPÍTULO XXIII 485 La Economía Política del general Perón CAPÍTULO XXIV 523 La Economía Política del antiperonismo desde 1955 hasta 1972 CAPÍTULO XXV 549 La Economía Política del fracasoSU y decadencia argenti- na desde 1972 hastaPROHIBIDA 1990 CAPÍTULO XXVI 601 La economía política de la Convertibilidad y su estalli- do. La deuda externa 1990-2001 REPRODUCCIÓN CAPÍTULO XXVII 647 La Economía Política cleptocrática del kirchnerismo 2003-2015 CAPÍTULO XXVIII 659 Presidencia Macri: decencia pero grandes errores ma- croeconómicos CAPÍTULO XXIX 667 ¿Quién manda en la Argentina en 2020? ¿El octavo pre- sidente fracasado en lo económico en los últimos trein- ta y siete años? 9 CAPÍTULO XXX 679 Qué hacer para rescatar a la Argentina de su decadencia CAPÍTULO XXXI 699 Thomas Piketty: el desarrollo acelerado es la verdadera llave para una mayor igualdad en la distribución del ingreso CAPÍTULO XXXII 721 El drama del Estado fallido en la Argentina, sus capas geológicas y su corrupción CAPÍTULO XXXIII 759 La crisis del “coronavirus” abre una extraordinaria oportunidad al resurgimiento argentino CAPÍTULO XXXIV 771 Aspectos técnicos sobre las cuentas nacionales y el régi- men impositivo argentino SU PROHIBIDA REPRODUCCIÓN 10 PRÓLOGO Las instituciones sociales son como los metales, los cuales solo se tornan maleables a altas temperaturas. Por eso las grandes reformas institucionales, que necesitan a veces los países, solo pueden hacerse en medio de una gran crisis, con altísima temperatura política y social, como la que la Argentina experimenta actualmente. La crisis que enfrentamos los argentinos es al mismo tiem- po una gran oportunidad. Claro está, necesitamos que en medio de la crisis surjan grandes estadistas que ten- gan las soluciones. La Argentina está agobiada por un Estado ineficiente y un sistema político clientelista fundado en los nombra- mientos de favor en la administraciónSU pública. Por ello el Estado argentino esPROHIBIDA inservible. Por ejemplo, los policías apresan a los delincuentes y los jueces inmediatamente los liberan. Resulta obvio que nuestro país necesita urgentemen- te poner a sus mejoresREPRODUCCIÓN ciudadanos en el Gobierno para que vuelva a ser rápidamente uno de los diez países más ricos del mundo, como lo fue hasta el decenio de 1940. La economía argentina está relativamente estancada desde hace setenta años. Numerosos economistas, en- tre ellos, Colin Clark y Paul Samuelson, pensaron hace noventa y cincuenta años atrás, respectivamente, que la Argentina iba a ser el país del futuro, incluso con un PBI per cápita más alto que el de los Estados Unidos. Pero ya en 1980, el propio Samuelson, Premio Nobel de Eco- nomía, afirmó en un congreso de economistas, que tuvo 11 EDUARDO R. CONESA - LUIS A. REY lugar en México, que en el mundo había cuatro grupos de países, los desarrollados, los subdesarrollados, Japón y Argentina. Japón porque hizo el milagro de llegar a tener uno de los niveles de vida más altos del planeta sin la ayuda de recursos naturales. Y la Argentina por- que teniendo toda clase de recursos, naturales y huma- nos, de ser un país desarrollado pasó a convertirse en uno subdesarrollado. Lo peor es que desde 1980 hasta el presente, 2020, la decadencia argentina se ha acentuado terriblemente. Una reciente encuesta patrocinada por la UADE, la Universidad Argentina de la Empresa, indica que tres de cada cuatro argentinos consideraron irse del país duran- te el último año y ello fue debido a las crisis económicas recurrentes en un 26%, seguida por mejores posibilida- des de desarrollo profesional, académicas o laborales, en otros países, en otro 26%. Y un 19%, por cuestiones de seguridad. La única salida parece ser Ezeiza (Clarín, 6/1/2020, La Nación, 12/1/2020).SU La Argentina, paísPROHIBIDA que desde 1860 hasta mediados del siglo XX era el país del futuro, el país de la inmigración hacia donde todo el mundo quería venir a vivir, está en- trando en disolución por culpa de sus erradas políticas económicas y, también, REPRODUCCIÓNen alguna medida, porque una parte de su clase política es considerada “cleptocrática”. ¿Por qué ha ocurrido este desastre con nuestro país? Esta es precisamente la pregunta que pretendemos res- ponder en este libro, dirigido primariamente a estudian- tes de Derecho, pero también a los políticos que dirigen nuestro país, y, por supuesto, a la opinión pública toda. En la Economía Política decía Adam Smith cada cual persigue su propio interés, no el beneficio del conjun- to. Y a pesar de ello, la sociedad, en su conjunto, resulta beneficiada. ¿Es cierto que no hay altruismo en la econo- 12 ECONOMÍA POLÍTICA ARG ENTINA mía? Para el común de los mortales es cierto. No para los políticos. Ellos deben ser altruistas. Los políticos que dirigen un país tienen que pensar en el bien común. No en sus intereses personales. No en enriquecerse. No en ser reelegidos. No en gozar con los halagos del poder. Más aun, es obligación de los diri- gentes de un país poner el bien del conjunto por sobre sus intereses personales. Luego, si merced a su conduc- ción el país crece y se desarrolla, la ciudadanía los retri- buirá con gloria, prestigio y honores para ellos y, quizá también, para sus descendientes. La gran pregunta de la Economía Política es entonces ¿Qué hacer desde la alta conducción del país para que la economía crezca y que el nivel de vida de sus habitantes mejore? A lo largo de este libro señalaremos que la clave radi- ca en los dos grandes precios macroeconómicos que tie- nen que dar las señales correctas y ser estables: el tipo de cambio real debe ser alto para estimular las exportacio- nes y para reducir la participaciónSU del Estado en el PBI simultáneamente,PROHIBIDA y la tasa de interés real debe ser baja para estimular la inversión. A su vez, estas señales de precios macroeconómicos solo pueden dar los incentivos adecuados, si hay superávit fiscal. El superávit fiscal re- quiere de una administraciónREPRODUCCIÓN austera y honesta de los recursos públicos. Y esto último solo puede conseguirse si los funcionarios que componen la administración pú- blica están nombrados sobre la base de exámenes com- petitivos y ascendidos en su carrera por riguroso mérito. Pero, además, la Argentina tiene cuatro problemas peculiares con sus exportaciones tradicionales. El prime- ro consiste en que están sujetas a muy fuertes y violen- tas oscilaciones en sus precios internacionales: es el viejo problema de los términos de intercambio que señalara la Cepal y el Dr.
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