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Comparative Assessment of Severe Accidents in the Chinese Energy Sector

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Comparative Assessment of Severe Accidents in the Chinese Energy Sector PAUL SCHERRER INSTITUT PSI Bericht Nr. 03-04 March 2003 ISSN 1019-0643 China Energy Technology Program Comparative Assessment of Severe Accidents in the Chinese Energy Sector Stefan Hirschberg, Peter Burgherr, Gerard Spiekerman, Erik Cazzoli, Jirina Vitazek and Lulian Cheng Paul Scherrer Institut CH-5232 Villigen PSI Telefon 056 310 21 11 Telefax 056 310 21 99 PAUL SCHERRER INSTITUT PSI Bericht Nr. 03-04 March 2003 ISSN 1019-0643 China Energy Technology Program Comparative Assessment of Severe Accidents in the Chinese Energy Sector Stefan Hirschberg1, Peter Burgherr1, Gerard Spiekerman1, Erik Cazzoli2, Jirina Vitazek3 and Lulian Cheng4 1 Paul Scherrer Institut, Switzerland 2 Cazzoli Consulting, Switzerland 3 Vitty, Slovakia 4 State Environmental Protection Administration, China - I - TABLE OF CONTENTS LIST OF FIGURES IN TEXT IV LIST OF TABLES IN TEXT VII EXECUTIVE SUMMARY IX 1. INTRODUCTION 1 1.1 Context of the study 1 1.2 Objectives and scope 1 1.3 Severe accident definition 2 2. INFORMATION SOURCES 4 2.1 Overview of selected databases and other sources 4 2.2 Completeness of collected data 6 2.2.1 Coal chain 6 2.2.2 Other energy chains 8 2.2.3 Severe accident database used for CETP 8 3. GENERAL INFORMATION AND ISSUES 10 3.1 China’s energy mix 10 3.2 The role of energy in China’s policy for the 21st century 11 4. EVALUATIONS FOR SPECIFIC ENERGY CHAINS 12 4.1 Coal chain 13 4.1.1 Background 13 4.1.2 China’s coal industry 14 4.1.3 Severe accidents in China’s coal chain 26 4.2 Oil chain 37 4.2.1 Background 37 4.2.2 China’s oil industry 41 4.2.3 Severe accidents in China’s oil chain 46 - II - 4.3 Natural gas chain 50 4.3.1 Background 50 4.3.2 China’s natural gas industry 50 4.3.3 Severe accidents in China’s natural gas chain 54 4.4 Liquefied petroleum gas chain 56 4.4.1 Background 56 4.4.2 China’s LPG industry 56 4.4.3 Severe accidents in China’s LPG chain 58 4.5 Coalbed methane 60 4.5.1 Background 60 4.6 Hydro power 61 4.6.1 Background 61 4.6.2 China’s hydro power industry 66 4.6.3 Severe accidents in China’s hydro power chain 72 4.7 Nuclear chain 75 4.7.1 Background 75 4.7.2 Analysis scope 76 4.7.3 Probabilistic methodology 77 4.7.4 Assumptions 81 4.7.5 Main Risk Results 95 4.7.6 Uncertainties 101 4.7.7 Conclusions 111 5. ENERGY CHAIN COMPARISONS 113 5.1 Aggregated indicators and frequency consequence curves 113 5.2 Indicators for the future 119 6. CONCLUSIONS 122 6.1 Specific chains 122 6.2 Comparative aspects 124 7. REFERENCES 126 - III - GLOSSARY 134 UNITS 138 APPENDIX A: LIST OF SEVERE ACCIDENTS WITHIN THE CHINESE COAL CHAIN IN THE PERIOD 1994-1999 139 APPENDIX B: LIST OF SEVERE ACCIDENTS WITHIN THE CHINESE OIL CHAIN IN THE PERIOD 1969-1999 163 APPENDIX C: LIST OF SEVERE ACCIDENTS WITHIN THE CHINESE NATURAL GAS CHAIN IN THE PERIOD 1969-1999 165 APPENDIX D: LIST OF SEVERE ACCIDENTS WITHIN THE CHINESE LPG CHAIN IN THE PERIOD 1969-1999 166 APPENDIX E: PROBABILISTIC METHODOLOGY 167 APPENDIX F DETAILED RESULTS 179 APPENDIX G SENSITIVITY ANALYSES 196 - IV - LIST OF FIGURES IN TEXT Figure 1: Number of fatalities per produced tonne of coal for 1896-1998 in US coal mining, and for the years 1908, 1922, 1932, 1946, 1956, 1966, 1975, 1985, 1986, 1987, 1988 and 1989 in UK coal mining. 7 Figure 2: China’s energy output mix for the period 1971-1999 [IEA, 2001]. 10 Figure 3: Electrical output by energy carriers in China [IEA, 2001]. 10 Figure 4: Classification and uses of coal. 13 Figure 5: Sulfur content of bituminous including anthracite (BA), sub-bituminous (SB) and lignite (L) coal. WC: Western Canada, EC: Eastern Canada. 14 Figure 6: Heat value of bituminous including anthracite (BA), sub-bituminous (SB) and lignite (L) coal. WC: Western Canada, EC: Eastern Canada. 15 Figure 7: World’s ten largest coal producers of hard (HC) and brown coal (BC) in year 1999. Values for 1990 and 1995 are included for comparison. Data are from IEA [2001]. 16 Figure 8: World’s ten largest coal consumers of hard (HC) and brown coal (BC) in year 1999. Values for 1990 and 1995 are included for comparison. Data are from IEA [2001]. 16 Figure 9: World’s ten countries with largest proven coal reserves at the end of 1999 [BP Amoco, 2001]. 17 Figure 10: Coal production by provinces for 1998 and 1999 [CCIY, 1999; 2000]. 17 Figure 11: World’s ten countries with largest coal exports [IEA, 2001]. 18 Figure 12: China’s final coal consumption by sectors for years 1990, 1995 and 1999 [IEA, 2001]. 19 Figure 13: Number of employees in the most important Chinese industrial branches for 1998 [CCIY, 1999]. 20 Figure 14: Productivity in coal mining for China, South Africa and USA (IEA, 2001; CCIY, 1997- 2000; MSHA, 2002). 21 Figure 15: Number of severe accidents that occurred in the Chinese coal chain according to various sources. Black bars represent severe accidents contained in ENSAD, whereas yellow bars represent those additionally collected from various other sources during CETP. The red bar gives the number of accidents used for statistical evaluations within the CETP framework. 26 Figure 16: Number of severe accident fatalities that occurred in the Chinese coal chain according to various sources. Black bars represent fatalities from severe accidents contained in ENSAD, whereas yellow bars represent those additionally collected from various other sources during CETP. The red bar gives the number fatalities used for statistical evaluations within the CETP framework. 27 Figure 17: Number of severe accidents in China’s coal chain by year and mine type. 28 Figure 18: Number of severe accident fatalities in China’s coal chain by year and mine type. 28 Figure 19: Shares and absolute number of fatalities in severe and smaller accidents that occurred in China’s coal chain from 1994 to 1999. The mean value for this period is also given. 29 Figure 20: Fatalities per Mt of produced coal in severe accidents according to mine type for the years 1994-1999. The average value for this period is also given. 30 Figure 21: Fatalities per Mt of produced coal in smaller accidents alone according to mine type for the years 1994-1999. The average value for this period is also given. 30 Figure 22: Fatalities per Mt produced coal in severe and smaller accidents according to mine type for individual provinces Values represent means for 1997-1999. Provinces marked by a frame are discussed in detail in Section 4.1.3.6. 31 Figure 23: Number of accidents according to coal chain stages for the years 1994-1999. The average value for this period is also given. 32 Figure 24: Number of fatalities according to coal chain stages for the years 1994-1999. The average value for this period is also given. 32 Figure 25: Average number of accidents per year according to different causes for the period 1994- 1999. Dark lines within bars represent one standard deviation. 33 Figure 26: Average number of fatalities according to different causes for the period 1994-1999. Dark lines within bars represent one standard deviation. 34 Figure 27: Number of severe accidents and fatalities according to mine type in Shandong province for the period 1994-1999. 35 Figure 28: Number of severe accidents and fatalities according to according to mine type in Shanxi province for the period 1994-1999. 35 Figure 29: Average severe accident fatality rates per Mt according to different causes for Shandong and Shanxi for the period 1994-1999. Error bars indicate one standard deviation. 36 Figure 30: Pipeline spillage frequencies by cause [Lyons, 1998]. 38 Figure 31: World’s ten largest oil producers (based on year 1999). Values for 1990 and 1995 are given for comparison. Data are from IEA [2001]. 42 Figure 32: World’s ten largest oil consumers (based on year 1999). Values for 1990 and 1995 are included for comparison. Data are from IEA [2001]. 43 - V - Figure 33: Regional distribution of proved recoverable oil reserves at the end of 2000 [BP Amoco, 2001]. 44 Figure 34: Countries with the largest proved recoverable reserves at the end of 2000 [BP Amoco, 2001]. 44 Figure 35: Reserves/Production (R/P) ratio at the end of 2000 for China and other areas [BP Amoco, 2001]. 45 Figure 36: China’s final oil consumption by sectors for the years 1985, 1990 and 1995 [IEA, 1997]. 45 Figure 37: Number of severe accidents in China’s oil chain in the period 1969-1999. 47 Figure 38: Number of severe accident fatalities in China’s oil chain in the period 1969-1999. 47 Figure 39: Number of accidents in China according to oil chain stages in the period 1969-1999. 48 Figure 40: Number of severe accident fatalities in China according to oil chain stages in the period 1969- 1999. 48 Figure 41: World’s largest natural gas producers in 1999. Values for 1990 and 1995 are given for comparison. Data are from IEA [2001]. 51 Figure 42: World’s largest natural gas consumers in 1999. Values for 1990 and 1995 are given for comparison. Data are from IEA [2001]. 51 Figure 43: China’s final natural gas consumption by sectors for the years 1990, 1995 and 1999 [IEA, 2001].
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