No. 4 [29]/2008

ROMANIA NATIONAL DEFENCE UNIVERSITY “CAROL I” CENTRE FOR DEFENCE AND SECURITY STRATEGIC STUDIES No. 4 [29]/2008 68-72 Panduri Street, sector 5, Bucharest, Romania Telephone: (021) 319.56.49; Fax: (021) 319.55.93 E-mail: [email protected]; Web address: http://impactstrategic.unap.ro, http://cssas.unap.ro NATIONAL DEFENCE UNIVERSITY “CAROL I” PRINTING HOUSE BUCHAREST, ROMANIA The Centre for Defence and Security Strategic Studies’ scientific quarterly magazine acknowledged by the National University Research Council as a B+ magazine Editorial Board: Marius Hanganu, Professor, Ph.D., president Constantin Moştoflei, Senior Researcher, Ph.D., executive president, editor-in-chief Nicolae Dolghin, Senior Researcher, Ph.D. Hervé Coutau-Bégarie, director, Ph.D. (Institute for Compared Strategy, Paris, France) John L. Clarke, Professor, Ph.D. (European Centre for Security Studies “George C. Marshall”) Adrian Gheorghe, Professor Eng., Ph.D. (Old Dominion University, Norfolk, Virginia, USA) Josef Procházka, Ph.D.�� (Institute for Strategic Studies, Defence University, Brno, Czech Republic) Dario Matika, Ph.D. (Institute for Research and Development of Defence Systems, Zagreb, Croatia) Gheorghe Văduva, Senior Researcher, Ph.D. Ion Emil, Professor, Ph.D. Editors: Vasile Popa, Researcher Corina Vladu George Răduică Scientific Board: Mihai Velea, Professor, Ph.D. Grigore Alexandrescu, Senior Researcher, Ph.D. The authors are responsible for their articles’ content, respecting the provisions of the Law no. 206 from the 27th of May, 2004, regarding the conduct in scientific research. ISSN 1842-9904 (online edition) STRATEGIC IMPACT CONTENTS THE POLITICAL-MILITARY PRESENT The Caspian energetic resources’ security and the crisis from Georgia Florian RÂPAN, PhD.............................................................................................................5 Caucasus war - the end of the Cold War or a new Cold War? Constantin-Gheorghe BALABAN, PhD .............................................................................11 Democracy in Islamic world. Challenges and perspectives Corina Nicoleta COMŞA.....................................................................................................17 GEOPOLITICS AND GEOSTRATEGIES ON THE FUTURE’S TRAJECTORY The building up and the use of the political-military tool during the security globalization era Dan GHICA-RADU ............................................................................................................21 End of the petroleum supply. Possible consequences Gheorghe MINCULETE, PhD, Maria-Magdalena POPESCU, PhD...................................28 UN and the military humanitarian intervention Dorel BUŞE, PhD, Alexandru LUCINESCU.......................................................................36 New juridical framework of the geopolitical environment between states’ sovereignity and interventions’ legitimacy Mirela ATANASIU...............................................................................................................�1 NATO AND EU: POLITICS, STRATEGIES, AND ACTIONS Originality of the EU Presidency as compared to the position of General Secretary in an international cooperation body Mădălina Virginia ANTONESCU .......................................................................................46 SECURITY AND MILITARY STRATEGY The philosophy of military transformation Eng. Eugen SITEANU, PhD................................................................................................�7 TERRORISM. WAR ON TERRORISM Les consequences nefastes de la guerre contre le terrorisme Jan EICHLER, PhD.............................................................................................................66 STRATEGIC IMPACT No. 4/2008 STRATEGIC IMPACT ANALYSIS. SYNTHESIS. EVALUATIONS From ideology to geopolitics. Russia’s relations with the United States in the Post Cold War era Emanuel COPILAŞ..............................................................................................................69 STRATEGIC EVENT Europe and the global financial crisis Vasile POPA.........................................................................................................................79 POINT OF VIEWS Military training and education on Humanitarian International Law Alin BODESCU...................................................................................................................82 INFORMATIONAL SOCIETY. PEACE AND WAR Statut et roles des societes militaires privees dans les conflits armes actuels Petre DUŢU, PhD, Aurică ŞERBAN....................................................................................91 Security of communications and virtual private networks Dan ANDREESCU ..............................................................................................................98 REVIEWS Energy resources, crises, conflicts ........................................................................................105 Terrorism. Studies and researches on the terrorist phenomenon .......................................107 CDSSS’ AGENDA The activities of the Centre for Defence and Security Strategic Studies, October - December 2008 Irina CUCU........................................................................................................................108 Instructions for authors.........................................................................................................109 4 STRATEGIC IMPACT No. 4/2008 THE POLITICAL-MILITARY PRESENT THE CASPIAN ENERGETIC RESOURCES’ SECURITY AND THE CRISIS FROM GEORGIA Florian RÂPAN, PhD After four decades, another war starts, but origins: the region’s rich resources, which are this time not in the Middle East, but in Caucasus, on the second position after the ones situated in transforming a frozen conflict, the one from the the Gulf area. The pipelines cross the Georgian South Osetia, into an open one, counter-posing the territory, in their way to the Black Sea, Turkey and Georgian forces to the secessionist ones, Abkhazian the European Union. By the beginning of this year, and South-Ossetian, then the Russian ones and the when events from Kosovo rushed to a declaration Georgian one, up to putting into practice the peace of independence from the secessionist province, agreement mediated by the French chief of state, the famous European specialist on defence matters that represents the EU presidency in this second Jean-Sylvestre Mongrenier noticed, in a large part of 2008. analysis on Serbia1, the existence of “Russia’s The secession announced by the South Ossetia grand strategy“, by which it intends to block and Abkhazia on the Georgian state forces the NATO’s expansion in the South-East of Europe and Tbilisi government to take measures for re- to increase its influence in the Balkans and in the establishing, by armed force, the Constitutional whole continent. The diplomatic support Moscow order, measures translated by Russia as targeted was given to Serbia, at that time, actually aimed the against the Russian population from that territory promotion of the Russian energetic and economic and entitling the Moscow’s military intervention interests within the region and the Western Europe. for “defending” the Russian ethnics. The events’ With the Kremlin’s assistance, Gazprom bought development is known. The attack, asserted as 51% of the capital of the Serbian oil company disproportionate, of the Russian Federation, puts NIS, having ensured half of the oil distribution the Georgian leadership in difficulty. There follows within Serbia. In exchange, the Russian company a range of international negotiations that bring had to invest in the modernization of the Serbian EU in forefront. By the French president efforts, refineries and in the construction of the centres for Nicolas Sarkozy, it succeeds to stop the conflict stocking the oil, but also aimed the approval for and to mediate the peace. the South Stream pipeline, that is to be built by the Few aspects draw the attention of the Russians together with the Italian company ENI, to phenomenon’s analysts: what it the real stake connect Tuapse, from Russia, from the Caucasian of the Caucasus days war, who are the actors shore of the Black Sea, to the Bulgarian Burgas interested in the region and how will be provided and then with Hungary and the Central Europe, the region’s security on average and long term? and, on the other ramification, with Greece and We have tried to find an answer to these questions Italy. This overturned the plans of the Commission in the following pages. from Brussels, for diminishing the dependence on Key-words: energetic resources, interests, the Russian hydrocarbons (Nabucco project, that energetic security, Georgia. prolongs the pipeline Baku – Tbilisi – Erzerum to the South-Eastern Europe and the Central Europe), Energetic resources and interests creating a geostrategic bridge in the Balkans, as asserted by the European media. No matter how many motivations may be Six months away from that moment, on the searched for the dramatic events from Georgia, Eastern side of the Russian “grand strategy“, all of them vanish in front of a very important within the Central Asian space, the place where element, one that represents actually the conflict’s the energetic resources’ “taps” open for Europe, STRATEGIC IMPACT No. 4/2008 THE POLITICAL-MILITARY PRESENT Moscow gives a prompt response to the West perspective of controlling that territory. Therefore, – that, according

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