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Bowen and Galilee Basins Non–Resident Population Projections, 2020 to 2026

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Bowen and Galilee Basins Non–Resident Population Projections, 2020 to 2026 Queensland Government Statistician’s Office Bowen and Galilee Basins non–resident population projections, 2020 to 2026 Introduction The resource sector in regional Queensland utilises fly-in/fly-out and Figure 1 Bowen and Galilee Basins drive-in/drive-out (FIFO/DIDO) workers as a source of labour supply. These non-resident workers live in the regions only while on-shift (refer to Notes, page 12). The Australian Bureau of Statistics’ (ABS) official population estimates and the Queensland Government’s population projections for these areas only include residents. To support planning for population change, the Queensland Government Statistician’s Office (QGSO) publishes annual non–resident population estimates and projections for selected resource regions. This report provides a range of non–resident population projections for local government areas (LGAs) in the Bowen and Galilee Basin regions (Figure 1), from 2020 to 2026. The projection series represent the estimated non-resident populations associated with existing resource operations and future projects in the region. Projects are categorised according to their standing in the approvals pipeline, including stages of the environmental impact statement (EIS) process, and progress towards achieving financial close. Series A is based on existing operations, projects under construction and approved projects that have reached financial close. Series B, C and D projections are based on projects that are at earlier stages of the approvals process. The projections in this report were In this publication, the Bowen Basin produced in February 2020 and do not consider impacts of the comprises the LGAs of Banana (S), Central COVID-19 pandemic on the non–resident population. Highlands (R), Isaac (R) and Whitsunday (R) 1 Projections in this report are derived from surveys conducted by (Bowen only) . The Galilee Basin is defined QGSO in 2019 and other sources. Data tables to supplement the as the LGA of Barcaldine (R). report are available on the QGSO website (www.qgso.qld.gov.au). 1 Key points For the Bowen Basin region: • The non-resident population was 18,410 persons in June 2019, unchanged from June 2018. • All four projection series anticipate that the non-resident population will increase between June 2019 and June 2020. • According to Series A, the region’s non-resident population will increase to 18,650 persons in June 2020 then gradually decline overall, reaching 17,610 persons in 2025 and 2026. • Series B, C and D all expect the region’s non-resident population to remain above the June 2019 level throughout the projections period. Under Series D, the non-resident population is projected to peak at 21,420 persons in 2024. • According to Series A, the non-resident population of the LGA of Isaac (R) will increase from 12,130 persons in June 2019 to 12,340 persons in June 2020, before declining and stabilising between 11,640 and 11,680 persons from 2022 to 2026. Under Series D, the non-resident population is projected to reach a peak of 14,510 persons in 2024. For the Galilee Basin region: • Series A reflects the baseline non-resident population of Barcaldine (R), which was 50 persons in June 2019. • Under Series B, the non-resident population is projected to remain at 50 persons until 2021, then increase to 880 persons by June 2026. 1 Whitsunday (R) (Bowen only) comprises the statistical areas level 2 (SA2s) of Bowen and Collinsville, which cover the area of former Bowen Shire. http://www.qgso.qld.gov.au http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0 © The State of Queensland (Queensland Treasury) 2020 Queensland Government Statistician’s Office Bowen and Galilee Basins – future influences The Bowen Basin is Queensland’s major coal mining region, with 44 coal mining operations and two gold mines as at February 2020 (Table 7, pages 10–12). The coal industry will continue to be the major influence on the region’s non-resident population, supported by increased gas development and renewable energy projects. The following resource industry projects moved through the approvals pipeline in 2019: • Two outstanding environmental management plans for Adani Australia’s Carmichael project were finalised and approved by the Queensland Government, and mine construction began in June 2019 (Adani Australia, 2019). • Aquila, an underground metallurgical coal project adjacent to the existing Grasstree mine, was approved by Anglo American in July 2019 (Anglo American, 2019). Mine development is underway and longwall production is expected to begin in early 2022, with a staged transition of the workforce from Grasstree. • The Olive Downs Project, a greenfield open–cut metallurgical coal mine project that will produce up to 15 Mtpa, had its EIS approved in May 2019 (Queensland Government, 2019a). Pembroke Resources intends to commence construction once it receives Commonwealth Government approval and the grant of its mining leases (Pembroke Resources, 2019). • The 180 MW Banana Range Wind Farm received Queensland Government approval in October 2019 (Queensland Government, 2019b). Project construction is expected to begin in 2020 and take approximately two years to complete. • The Wilton–Fairhill project comprises two coking coal mines with combined run-of-mine coal production of over 3 Mtpa. The Wilton component received its Regional Interest Development Approval from the Queensland Government in November 2019 (DSDMIP, 2019a) and Commonwealth Government sign-off in December 2019 (DoEE, 2019). • Development studies are underway on the Eagle Downs project ahead of financial close, expected in late 2020 (South32, 2020). Eagle Downs is an approved, partially developed underground coal project. • Magnetic South has submitted an environmental authority application for its Gemini Project (Magnetic South, 2020). The 1.9 Mtpa greenfield open–cut metallurgical coal mining project does not require an EIS. • Winchester South, a proposed greenfield open–cut metallurgical coal mine with a yield of up to 8 Mtpa, was declared a coordinated project in April 2019 (DSDMIP, 2019b). Preparation of an EIS is underway, with the approval process expected to take two years (Whitehaven Coal, 2019). • The Isaac Downs Project published an initial advice statement (IAS) in May 2019 (DES, 2019a). Construction of the open–cut metallurgical coal mine is proposed to commence in early 2021 and operations to commence in mid–2021, with workforce and equipment to transition from Stanmore Coal’s adjacent operations at Isaac Plains. • In November 2019, Bowen Basin Coal submitted the IAS for the Lake Vermont Meadowbrook Project (DES, 2019b). The project represents a continuation of the existing Lake Vermont mine, and would enable production of metallurgical and PCI coal to be maintained at currently approved levels. Projection methodology QGSO’s non–resident population projection methodology comprises four different series, which represent a range of possible outcomes arising from the future development of resource projects and operations in the Bowen and Galilee Basins. Each series estimates the non-resident population that would be present in each LGA at 30 June of each year from 2020 to 2026, should the listed operations and projects proceed as assumed. The four projection series represent the estimated non-resident populations associated with existing operations and future projects. Projects are categorised according to their standing in the approvals pipeline, including stages of the environmental impact statement (EIS) process2, and progress towards achieving financial close. • Series A projection is based on the number of non-resident workers on-shift who were engaged in existing resource operations at June 2019. The projection takes into account future changes to those operational workforces as advised by company sources, as well as the estimated construction and operational workforces of Category A projects (i.e. those that are approved and have reached financial close). • Series B projection includes the Series A projection plus projected growth in the non-resident population arising from Category B projects (those that have an EIS approved and are awaiting other approvals and/or financial close). • Series C projection includes the Series A and B projections, plus projected growth in the non-resident population arising from Category C projects (those that have published an EIS but are not yet approved). 2 The projections also include some projects that do not require an EIS. Such projects are still subject to other approvals. Bowen and Galilee Basins non–resident population projections, 2 2020 to 2026 Queensland Government Statistician’s Office • Series D projection includes the Series A, B and C projections, plus projected growth in the non-resident population from Category D projects (those that have yet to publish an EIS, including projects that have lodged an initial advice statement (IAS), as well as projects that have yet to begin the approvals process). Where there is a single project in a category or where data for a single project could be derived from published totals, the non-resident population associated with that project is excluded from the relevant projection series in order to preserve data confidentiality. Where financial close for an approved project has been delayed indefinitely, or where it is not possible to give consideration to indicative workforce data or sequencing, the project is designated as Category E and is not included in any of the four projection series. Other projects that are dependent on Category
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