sign in sign up
<<
Home , Blundell Park, Brunton Park, Eoin Doyle, Glanford Park, Ian Evatt, John Yems

Hello All,

Hope you all had a fantastic weekend and it was great to see, in some limited ways, football fans back into in last Saturday afternoon. Below were the ‘sell out’ scenes at where Norwich left it late to rescue a point against Preston North End as Canaries fans were able to bask in the late summer sun in East Anglia. They were scenes played out at a few other grounds around the country and we all had our fingers crossed that if we could all behave in the next few weeks we would soon be able to start watching our favourite teams in person. The news that came on Tuesday afternoon when Boris Johnson spoke to the nation really came as a blow to us all and the chances of getting crowds into grounds this season now really looks a long way off.

Did Brentford deliberately try and make their new look like a Subbuteo Stadium? If they did, they nailed it as it hardly looks real when you are watching on television! I have to say having been a regular over the past few seasons to Brentford I would really miss my trips to the tight confines of the old ground and it will be interesting to see how the Bess perform in their home. Griffin Park smelt of Bovril whenever I stepped through its gates and I mean that in the very nicest of ways as it had the feel of an incredibly old football ground steeped in history. Yes, clubs need to move forward and progress but I can’t help but feel that Brentford has lost a part of their history.

It certainly didn’t take them long to send out their emails from the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium as by the time I woke up on Sunday morning I had the message to the right here flashing in my inbox. £600k a week are the reported wages that the ‘Flying Welshman’ is set to receive during his time back in North but do we really know where he is at this stage of his career? Bale is undoubtedly one of the best players that has ever worn a Spurs shirt but is this more of a marketing/nostalgic signing as opposed to thinking he can have a real impact on Jose Mourinho’s side season? Bale has become almost a figure of derision in Madrid as the locals think of him more of a golfer than a footballer in recent weeks and months. I won’t say that one game has had a dramatic impact on Spurs but if they had beaten Everton last week would this transfer have even happened? It seems so much of a risk to me but for both Bale and Mouurinho the stakes are high, and the clock appears to be ticking as their careers begin the climb down the other side of the hill.

It is really interesting to see how different leagues around the world, as like their countries themselves, are handling the COVID-19 crisis and the measures they have in place to mitigate risks. In the NFL a league wide memo was sent out reminding all coaches of the need to wear their masks on the sideline and in the all officials not directly officiating have to wear them. Why do managers and coaches not have to wear them then? Whatever side of the fence you want to be on surely, we can all agree that the picture to the left here is just ridiculous as Ole Gunnar Solskjaer berates the 4th official at last Saturday night whilst the 4th official is masked up.

Last Saturday afternoon I watched my ‘Mighty Imps’ go two from two in League One ahead of their big night last night against Jurgen Klopp’s side. We beat MK Dons 2-1 thanks to a very dodgy penalty (you see I don’t watch games through rose tinted glassed) and a well worked second goal. Watching games on iFollow is a strange thing for me and I have still not got used to setting my seating arrangements up correct for games. What I would say though is that I am really enjoying listening to the ‘Away’ commentary as last week I was able to listen to BBC Three Counties Radio where I listened to two very bias commentators who seemed to think that they were very impartial. They were far from impartial and they had some very interesting comments on MK Dons legend Dean Lewington who is the Dons’ club captain. I sensed that they are not fans of the thirty-six-year-old skipper as they spent the entire game calling him names such as ‘The undroppable one’ and ‘The immovable object’ as I got the feeling they feel he is almost above the law of Dons boss Russell Martin. Lewington has no pace left so Martin has moved him to the centre of his defence and that lack of pace caused the penalty and although it was a poor decision the referee would not have had to make a decision if Lewington could move faster than an OAP with a zimmer frame. Yes, he still has a wand of a left foot and with time on the ball he will still look graceful but folks please keep a look out for him lining up in the centre of the Dons’ defense because if he does then their sheets will be as clean as Spud’s on Trainspotting! If you have not seen the famous film based on the Irving Welch film then you can guess that the sheets are not very clean and if you have had your tea a long time ago then perhaps you could Google the scene!

The game was played behind closed doors but as usual at Stadium MK (pictured below), could you tell the difference? 

Wednesday afternoon saw me tune in to watch Smolevichi and FC Minsk game on YouTube as I looked to re-find my love for the Belarus Premier League. I didn’t though as I had a little lay of the away side and they won 4-0 so my net lost. The fact that on Thursday afternoon the UK Secretary Of State Dominic Raab announced that the UK does not recognise the Belarus results did not seem to hold sway with Bet365 as it seemed it only applied to results announced in their election and not ones from their Premier League! In midweek I also tuned into v Newcastle in the EFL Cup and as you all know I have a bit of a soft spot for Morecambe and their fans as they are perennial League Two strugglers. It is hard work being Morecambe FC as since they came into the Football League for the 2007-08 season and the Shrimps have never finished higher than 11th in the League Two standings. On Wednesday night they were given a footballing lesson by Newcastle but in some ways the empty stands were a stark reminder of the fate awaiting many clubs as we enter a winter of minimal revenue for lower league clubs. Joelinton who put Newcastle 1-0 ahead cost £40m whilst Morecambe’s entire ground (a smart little prefab looking number) only cost £12m. Newcastle will continue to receive the big money from the TV deals over the coming months whilst Morecambe will be left waiting on (bigger) hand outs than normal. For many years I have been against the Premier League ‘owe you the other clubs’ argument as my little corner shop doesn’t rely on a handout from Tesco as they have to organise their own business model to attract customers. However, this pandemic is something completely different to the challenges that lower league clubs have ever faced and even the economically viable ones will be lucky to survive with no additional funding from the big clubs.

One lower league team that was substantially assisted this week was my beloved Lincoln City who hosted Liverpool on Thursday night in the EFL Cup. We pocketed a cool £125k for the game and sadly we would have probably grabbed another £200k if this had been played in any other season with a crowd in attendance. Some of my two-team w***** mates went off into town looking for the Liverpool team bus and players after their private jet landed at a local RAF base just after lunchtime. You know how I have said that recently I have tried to be less judgemental but, on this matter, I am not holding back. For crying out loud chaps I am not sure what you were expecting to see by hanging around outside a Marriott on the Lincoln waterfront, VVD sipping a caramel latte and Jurgen Klopp walking down past the Lincoln Odeon with a surgical mask on? Well if that was your goal then I hear some of you were successful in your quest!

I am pressing send on this weeks edition to you all just before kick off and although the team that Liverpool have selected is a strong one I have a strange funny feeling that the Imps will keep this a lot closer than the Liverpool -2 ¼ line suggests. I have taken a piece of the Imps on the Asian Handicap line so fingers crossed by the time you read this I will have cashed. Whatever happens I know this Lincoln side under will do the city proud!

All the best, if you have any questions then please fire them over, have a great weekend and stay safe

Jimmy Kempton Editor *All prices and statistics quoted, unless stated, are correct as of 7am Thursday 24th September*

Brighton & Hove Albion v Manchester United Manchester United – ¾ and 2 ½ goals Well I certainly got whacked at St James’ Park last Sunday when Brighton walked away with all three points thanks to a 3-0 victory on Tyneside. That result really disappointed me as I was convinced that Newcastle would avoid defeat against a team who had only ever won nine previous Premier League away games. What a result for United last weekend as they were somewhat humiliated on home soil by Crystal Palace as the Red Devils lost 3-1. David de Gea is pictured left here sarcastically applauding the officials after Palace were allowed to retake a penalty following a VAR decision that overturned the Spaniards save of the original spot kick. I don’t want such a decision to take away from the magnitude of this defeat for United as it is a hammer blow for them in my opinion. I am sure that some people might think that this is an over-reaction to just one result but to me this is a big result that says a lot about where United are as a club. They should not lose this game on the opening day of the season as they should be focused and motivated to get the job done but at some point we need to look at the manager and his staff for this. Since Brighton came into the topflight they are 2-0-4 against OGS’ men and although they lost this fixture 3-0 last season they did win both of the previous meetings of the teams at the The AMEX Stadium. That win last season did come under OGS’ reign though so he will bring his side here confident that they will be able to take all three points back with them up north. The Seagulls are 4-3-13 on home soil against sides who finish in the top six of the table and just 1-2-8 in their last eleven games in this spot. I have to be careful here as I have been against Brighton for a while now and we know from the bitter experience of last weekend that it is not always a good idea! Given that shock loss last Saturday evening there is no way that I can support United giving up more than a half goal on this handicap line. I cannot even trust them to get the job done on the outright for all of our Acca’s as my gut feeling tells me that OGS’ side tends to go on runs of results, both good and bad. That is born out by the stats as baring in mind he has only managed 60 EPL games he has had runs of 12 games without defeat to open his managerial career at Old Trafford and then a period of just 2 wins in 12 games. Those two spells alone define almost half of his tenure in the hotseat at the Theatre of Dreams. United should win but until I see them win a game this season, I won’t be backing them!

Crystal Palace v Everton Everton – ¼ and 2 ¼ goals Both teams come into this game on the back of incredible results last weekend as Palace won 3-1 at Old Trafford and Everton smashed West Brom 5-2 at Goodison Park. After two games of this new season I am not sure how many, if any, of us supposed football experts would have had said that these teams would not only be unbeaten but have taken all six points from their two matches. This line opened with the Toffees priced as half goal favourites and cash quickly came for the home team as we all know of ’s tactical nous and his knowledge of how to close teams down. When I first saw that line open at that level I thought to myself “what nonsense” and grabbed a little piece of the Eagles blindly but I have to say I am close to trading out following some deeper analysis of this game. Palace have performed poorly against Everton in recent seasons they are 0-6-4 and have failed to score in four of their last five games at Selhurst Park against the Blues as they’ve gone 0-4-1 against Ancelotti’s men. When the sides met back in Gameweek 26 last season it was Everton who ran out 3-1 winners on and that is the only data point we have for these sides meeting under their respective current managers. I should be all over Palace here given the fact that since he took over Palace are 18-13-13 against sides between 7th and 20th in the Premier League. Whether it is my pre-season proclamation that Everton are going to be a surprise package or just a genuine acknowledgement that they started the season looking sharp in the final third I just cannot get against them. I know I will probably regret it, but I am passing this game.

West Bromwich Albion v Chelsea Chelsea -1 ¼ and 2 ¾ goals The Baggies were mauled 5-2 at Goodison Park last weekend as West Brom capitulated to concede five times to bring their goals against tally to eight! It looks set to be a very long season for Slavan Bilic and his troops and it will be interesting to see if he decides to make some subtle, or even big, changes to his teams style of play to try and adapt to life at this level and also in an attempt to grind out some positive results. Chelsea lost 2-0 at home to Liverpool as Sadio Mane netted two goals in the second half following the sending off of the Blues’ Andreas Christensen for a second bookable offence just before half time. Under Fun Time Frankie the Blues are 10-3-7 on their travels in Premier League action with the Yes on Both Teams To Score landing in sixteen of those twenty games with Over 2 ½ goals going 17-3. Why did this goal line not open a solid 3? I am not sure, but I do think they continue to under-react to the expected goals when West Brom take the field. Maybe those stats are obscured a little by two penalties in their opening loss against Leicester and then their last outing saw them reduced to ten men for a large portion of the game. Who knows but that is something to monitor as the goal line seems to open and then get bet up so you could get ahead of lines in future weeks? Chelsea have won each of their last three trips to The Hawthornes in Premier League action and when they last met on this ground it ended in a 4-0 win for Chelsea. Over the last few seasons teams who finish in the top six win around two thirds of their games away to newly promoted sides. Chelsea are 10-2-3 in this spot and last season they went 2-0-1 in Lampard’s first season in charge, but both of those victories came by just one goal. Chelsea may have won ten of those fifteen games but have kept just four clean sheets along the way and none for the last two full seasons in this spot. I do not understand why this goal line is not sitting at 3 but rather than waste valuable time and energy trying to fathom out the answer I am just going to go and back the Over 2 ¾ goals and get ready to collect at around 730pm UK Time on Saturday evening. Back Over 2 ¾ goals

Burnley v Southampton Southampton – ¼ and 2 ¼ goals The Saints have lost both of their games so far this season whilst Burnley got beaten 4-2 away to Leicester last weekend despite taking the lead through a Chris Wood goal after ten minutes. I was keen ahead of the game to side with the Under 2 ½ goals but wanted to see some footage of the Clarets this season before we waded in on the Under and I was glad we did swerve away from backing it. Over the last few seasons Southampton have really struggled against Burnley as the Saints are just 1-3-4 overall and 0-2-2 on this ground. Last season Burnley laid the smack down in this fixture last season as they beat Ralph Hassenhuttl’s men 3-0. Interestingly those four games at Turf Moor (pictured right) have yielded eight total goals but all of them have come in the second half as each of the matches played on this ground saw a 0-0 half time score. Perhaps even more interestingly is the fact that seven of those eight total meetings of the sides gone into the half time break at 0-0. That half time score line can be backed @ 13/8 and what does that history tell us about the way in which this game is to be played? Sean Dyche is a very tactical manager and clearly knows that the best way to allow Southampton to gain a foothold into the game is to allow them to score early in the game and hit them on the counterattack. Under Hassenhuttl the Saints have gone 12-7-12 on the road and that record is even across the board no matter what the standard of opponent they face. Another thing to factor into our thoughts on how the away team will set up is the fact that normally they love to get balls into their opponents’ box early and let fight for it. Perhaps the fact that seven of those games have gone into the half time break level at 0-0 tells us that Burnley have those physical characteristics in their defensive players to repel Southampton’s major threat. Given the fact that Burnley conceded four goals in their opening game of the season I cannot look to side with an Under 2 ¼ goal bet in their next outing. I will instead just lean in that direction and suggest that if you do want to place a wager in this Saturday night game then the Half Time 0-0 @ 13/8 could be the bet to take.

Sheffield United v Leeds United Scratch and 2 ¼ goals ’s men have their first real challenge since they came into the Premier League this weekend as they look to pick themselves up from two straight defeats to open this 2020-21 campaign. Having lost three games to the end last season Wilder has this week needed to pick his side up following their 1-0 loss at on Monday Night Football as the Blades were beaten in a game where they spent seventy eight minutes with just ten men after skipper John Egan was sent off for a professional foul on . If only those Leeds fans could get in the ground to cheer their boys on as they would be witnessing some incredible football and goals going in at a rate of ten to the dozen! They got off the mark points wise last Saturday as they beat Fulham 4-3 but from a position of 4-1 to the good it is rather alarming, to me anyway, that they allowed the game to end at that final score line. I am going to make a little bit of an assumption here and class Sheffield United as a bottom half placed side for this season and in this spot newly promoted sides have gone 33-39-81 and last season registered a 6-11-14 record. With three of those six wins coming from Sheffield United themselves you can make the case that the home side look truly incredible value on this Scratch line. We often talk about the lack of a crowd hindering the home side and the stats I talk of later show that with just five of eighteen home sides covering ATS so far this season. In this instance though I do think the lack of a crowd will help the home side as in a fierce Yorkshire derby (like in the 1990s pictured above left) with fans in the ground they would be driven on perhaps carelessly against this offensive Leeds team. A big lean to the home side here and it is just that attacking threat of the away side that puts me off putting them forward as a formal bet.

Tottenham Hotspur v Newcastle United Tottenham -1 ¼ and 2 ¾ goals When Southampton took the lead just after the half hour mark at St Mary’s last Sunday lunchtime nobody could really see what was going to happen next. After Harry Kane had missed a penalty earlier and the Saints took the lead it seemed almost certain that Spurs would falter and struggle with all eyes turning to the incoming (shown right) to try and save their season. Step forward Heung-Min Son who not only equalised just before half time, but he scored a second half hat-trick as the South Korean netted four goals in the game and inspired Spurs to a 5-2 win. It was a relatively embarrassing defeat for Newcastle last Sunday afternoon when Steve Bruce’s men were beaten 3-0 by a Brighton side who had only ever won nine previous Premier League away games. Newcastle have won three of the last eight meetings of the sides and won this fixture 1-0 last season, so I have no appetite to back Spurs on the -1 ¼ goal line. After that poor defeat last Sunday afternoon, I will not let Newcastle frustrate me again and am keeping well away.

Manchester City v Leicester City Manchester City -1 ¾ and 3 ¼ goals Pep Guardiola’s men got off the mark on Monday Night Football when they won 3-1 at Wolves in a tough challenge of their credentials at Molineux. Th familiar names of Kevin De Bruyne, Iceland’s favourite son Phil Foden and Gabriel Jesus were on the scoresheet as even the lack of Sergio Aguero in the City squad did not stop them from taking all three points. Here are the facts with regards to Leicester’s performances this season, two wins and seven goals! Last Sunday night saw them come from a goal behind at home to Burnley to take all three points with a 4-2 victory and they didn’t even need the assistance of to help them on the way as the former England international failed to get on the scoresheet. During Guardiola’s reign at the Etihad Stadium City are 22-7-3 at home to top six finishing placed sides and last season they beat Liverpool 4-0 and won this fixture 3-1 in this spot. Manchester City have won the last four meetings of the teams on this ground with Over 3 ½ goals landing at a rate of 3-2 with Leicester scoring at least once in four of the five games. We know that Jamie Vardy will always cause the home side issues as Pep will refuse to change his tactics sufficiently enough to completely contain him. On the current market lines if I liked Leicester, I would certainly take the Over 3 ¼ goals as opposed to backing the Foxes on the match line.

West Ham United v Wolverhampton Wanderers Wolves – ½ and 2 ¼ goals West Ham have now lost two straight games but at least last week at The they showed a little bit of fight and resilience in their 2-1 defeat. Whether it easier for them to play against the better teams who do leave themselves open or not I am not sure and I see this as being another really difficult game that the Hammers will struggle to take anything from. Wolves battled back from 2-0 down to really push Manchester City all the way on Monday Night Football as Nuno Espirito Santo’s men pulled it back to 2-1 before conceding a very late goal that saw them sink to a 3-1 defeat. Wolves played that game, and all others moving forward, without striker Diogo Jota (pictured right) who in the last few days has completed a move to EPL champions Liverpool for a reported £45 million fee. The Hammers are just 5-5-10 in their last twenty home games against top half placed sides and lost this fixture 2-0 last season and even if I downgrade Wolves to a mid-third finishing side which incorporates teams down to 13th West Ham are just 10-14-12 in recent seasons. Wolves are just 7-5-8 on their travels at bottom half placed sides so siding with them – ½ goal in this spot is not very appealing to me. Interestingly to me though is the fact that Wolves have kept just four clean sheets in those games and the loss of the creative Jota to Liverpool only increases the chances of Wolves struggling in these spots. That said if you want to back the home side + ½ goal then the very best of British luck to you as Wolves have won each of the four total meetings of the sides in Premier League action To Nil including a 2-0 and 1-0 win on this ground. Those head to head meetings even put me of the Yes on Both Teams To Score which I sense is the most attractive bet at around the Even Money mark. A game to completely leave alone in my book.

Fulham v Aston Villa Scratch and 2 ¼ goals What do you take from Fulham’s showing last weekend at Leeds? Do we take the fact that they cannot defend and ended up being 4-1 behind or do we look to the positives that saw them claw their way back into the game to only be on the end of a 4-3 loss? I am not sure but what we do know is that last week they were far more competitive than in their first game when they were completely outclassed by Arsenal in a 3-0 loss and they are sure to be confident of taking something from this game. Aston Villa made full use of an extra man in their Monday Night Football victory over Sheffield United when Villa played for over 70 minutes against the Blades following the sending off of skipper John Egan. Villa finally found a way to break the deadlock and, in the end, they were deserving of the three points which will ensure they are full of confidence for this trip. The big man Aleksandar Mitrovic (shown left) is a huge player, and not just in physique, for Fulham as he is a handful for any defence and is a key man for the Cottagers in games such as these where I am sure that Scott Parker and his coaching staff will have circled on his calendar as an almost ‘must win’ game. Newly promoted teams are 61-29-37 on home soil against bottom half placed sides with Under 2 ½ goals going 74-53 in this spot but the thing that puts me off siding with the Under here is last week’s game for Fulham at Elland Road. However, do begin to treat Leeds as a bit of an outlier or just ignore them for these sorts of trend purposes until we get more visibility on how they perform as a team. If you are looking at making a wager in this game, then I do think the home win off the Scratch line is the only way I could look to play the game. Last season Aston Villa went 2-5-12 on their travels with wins at just Burnley and Norwich and they failed to keep a single clean sheet away from home. If you like Villa to take something from the game, then given that last stat you may want to think about taking the Yes on Both Teams To Score @ 5/6.

Liverpool v Arsenal Liverpool -1 ¼ and 3 goals Liverpool beat Chelesa 2-0 at Stamford Bridge last Sunday afternoon as a brace from Sadio Mane gave Jurgen Klopp’s team all three points in a relatively comfortable win once Chelsea were reduced to ten men. Is the new Roberto Martinez? I have to say I was so totally underwhelmed by their showing against West Ham last Saturday evening but at least they ground out the results. I sense any time that he chooses to pick Rob Holding and Gabriel at centre half they will struggle as teams will love to launch balls into the box. I think Gabriel looks one of those typical imports that will be a complete failure at the Premier League level. I may be completely wrong, but he doesn’t look good enough to me to play for one of the very top teams in the league and when the lower teams look to target him physically, he will struggle greatly. What are the chances we see another late Arsenal winner such as the one Michael Thomas (shown right) netted at on that famous night in late May 1989? Yeah, about zero I think as there is no way you can trust Arsenal to take the three points but are they resilient enough under Arteta to take a point and thus be a serious contender to be taken receiving more than a full goal. The line opened Liverpool -1 but money has trickled in through the week to move the line to Klopp’s men -1 ¼ for the big Monday Night Football attraction. Do Arsenal have the resilience to keep this game tight? Maybe, but I am not ready to risk our hard-earned cash on them just yet given that poor display against West Ham. Can we trust Liverpool to win and cover a line of over a full goal against a ‘non-below average opponent’ during a packed schedule? Again, I sense the answer to that at present is no, so for me this game is a complete pass.

EPL STATS SO FAR THIS SEASON HOME TEAM RECORD SU (HOME/DRAW/AWAY) 7-0-11 HOME TEAM RECORD ATS 5-12 (1 Push) UNDER OVER 1 ½ GOALS 3-15 UNDER OVER 2 ½ GOALS 6-12 UNDER OVER 3 ½ GOALS 8-10

For the purpose of simplicity, I am counting ¼ goal wins as wins, ie a – ¾ favourite winning by 1 goal is classed as a win. I appreciate this is not a perfect mechanism, but I just want to make it easy for people to understand.

Country Games % Home % Draw % Away % O1.5 % O2.5 % O 3.5 % Yes BTTS Austria 12 42 33 25 83 50 42 67 Belgium 54 39 20 41 72 57 35 57 Denmark 12 58 25 17 75 50 33 58 English Prem 18 39 0 61 83 67 44 50 Championship 24 42 21 38 58 29 17 25 England L1 24 42 25 33 83 42 21 50 England L2 24 33 33 33 75 50 29 33 France 40 52 18 30 70 50 28 50 Germany 9 33 22 44 89 78 67 67 Italy 7 71 14 14 86 43 14 29 Netherlands 17 41 18 41 82 35 24 41 Portugal 8 38 38 25 88 38 38 62 Scotland SPL 46 39 17 43 59 48 20 37 Spain 14 50 29 21 71 29 7 43

As you can see from the above, we are still very early in the season with the numbers but I will update them weekly to build up a picture of the trends we are seeing across the leagues.

Last weekend we had two bets and quite frankly they were terrible, and I do not want to talk about them! Well they weren’t that bad but two losers are two losers as Parma lost 2-0 at home to Napoli when we were on the hosts +1 and Zinedine Zidane and his Real Madrid side could not get the job done post-Gareth Bale as they drew 0-0 at Real Sociedad. I suggested that Juventus -1 ½ may be a trap and again I was wrong as the game ended 3-0 the Old Lady as they started their campaign with another win as they begin their quest for yet another Scudetto. Rather than dwell on old mishaps let us quickly move on to this week’s games and see if we can find any value and in the words of the great Maxine Nightingale I need to “Get right back to where we started from……..”

Belarus is where we found a lot of success over the summer months as we found it a reasonably easy league to assess so after a couple of bad weeks elsewhere in Europe let us head back to that crazy country and see what we can find to get us back to winning ways. Since we last looked at this league we have seen a return to normality with FC Bate moving to the top of the table as the most famous team in the country has opened up a three point lead over nearest rivals Shakhter. This weekend they welcome in last seasons surprise champions Dinamo Brest to the Borisov Arena (shown right) for the Sunday evening kick off as they look to execute a league double. Last season Brest won this fixture 1-0 but prior to that they had lost four straight times here and in the last eleven games Bate have gone 8-2-1. When the sides met for the first time this season it was Bate who took all three points on the road as they won 3-1 in Game week 10. Bate had a shaky start to the season as they lost their opening two games of this campaign but since then they are an overall 15-4-3 and given the fact that Brest’s road form is just 5-1-5 this season I think the home team look decent value around the 7/10 level. Very quickly I want to look at some strange stats in the Ruh Brest and FK Slutsk game as the home team started the season with a 7-0 and 12-2 run to the Under 2 ½ goals but since Gamweek 15 they have gone 8-2 to the Over 2 ½ goals. With FK Slutsk games going 8-2 to the Over 2 ½ goals in their away games I do lean heavily to the Over 2 ½ goals at any price above 7/10.

I have to move over to Spain and take a look at one game in particular and I think regular and long-time subscribers will take one look at this weekend’s fixtures and no instantly where we are headed. In all of my time analysing football from a betting perspective I don’t think there has ever been an easier team to read than Atletico Madrid in terms of how they want to approach games. Despite being very tactically minded Diego Simeone is in many ways a remarkably simple coach as if your team does not concede a goal it is, not just unlikely, it is impossible to lose a game! This weekend Atletico welcome in current league leaders Granada to the Wanda Metropolitano (shown left) as Simeone’s men look to get their 2020/21 season off with a win. Atletico under Simeone have gone 68-20-7 on home soil over the past five seasons but five of those losses have come against either Barcelona or Real Madrid and their record in this spot is nothing short of exceptional. Last season Granada finished 7th in La Liga and if we assume, which I think it is fair to do, that they finish no higher than that this season then Atletico’s record strengthens to 61- 12-2 which is a win rate of 81.33% yet they can be supported in the betting market @ 11/20 to kickstart their campaign with a win. Such is the reliability of Atletico to win low scoring games sees them that short to win the game, thus being a -1 Asian Handicap bet, yet the Under 2 ½ goals is priced @ 8/13. An incredible 51 of those 68 wins have come to nil so I sense any price of over Even Money on the Atletico to win to nil offers some decent value and it can be backed currently @ 23/20. I worried last season that the move of Diego Godin who hamper their defensive unit as the tough Uruguayan used to boss that Madrid defence, but they still managed to keep a clean sheet in ten of their nineteen home games. This fixture ended 1-0 to Atletico last season and Simeone’s men have won four of the six meetings of the sides in recent seasons to nil. We know their modus operandi and we trust it as a proven model of success, so I am not shy in taking them to Win To Nil at double the ROI of the outright win.

Selections Back Atletico Madrid To Win To Nil

This was a column that I introduced a couple of seasons ago and last season we returned over 6% from our initial bank. The concept is quite simple really as we are looking to build a bank of funds slowly through sensible low risk bets. Just like my main investments in the stock market this column will focus on those ‘blue chip’ teams that offer the most reliability. Very rarely throughout the season will we invest in some kind of ‘Tech Start Up’ in the Finnish Second Division! Our funds will be entrusted with the likes of Barcelona, Bayern Munich, Juventus and Liverpool.

Our staking plan will be a conservative one as we commence the season with 100 points, and I will be delighted by the end of the season if we push forward by 10%. The maximum outlay each week will be 5 points, but I sense there will be few weeks where a maximum exposure is seen. Sounds boring doesn’t it? I suppose that is the point as investing in BP or Royal Dutch Shell is rarely a leap into the exciting unknown!

Last weekend we took two bets as we took Under 3 ½ goals in the Forest Green Rovers and Bradford City game for 1 point @ 2/7 whilst at the same time trusting the Tampa Bay Buccaneers outright for 2 points @ 5/18. I sense the fiery nature of the game down at saw our bet lose in Gloucestershire as at half time the match was locked at 0-0. We saw chaos in the second stanza though as Bradford ended up with just nine men following two sending’s off and then our bet was sunk in the last minute of the game when Forest Green equalised to make it 2-2. It wasn’t all plain sailing down in Florida either as Tom Brady’s men only sealed their win in the final minute against a spirited Carolina side as the Buccs gained a late touchdown to complete a 31-17 victory.

Current Bank Balance 99.31 points Points Staked Today 4.00 points Maximum Closing Bank 100.18 points Minimum Closing Bank 95.31 points

We start our Bank Builder weekend at midday on Saturday when we head off to Belarus for a game between Energetik and Isloch in a Belarus Premier League game. This game broke the #GoalRush algorithm but sadly failed on the price criteria as I could only find 1.67 available so I am going to have to scale back on what we need for a winning bet by a full goal. Each of the sides’ last five games have landed a Yes on Both Teams To Score and each of the three meetings of the teams over the last season and a half has landed an Over 2 ½ goals bet. After a slow start to the season in terms of goals in their games Isloch have exploded of late with twenty-three goals coming in their last five away games. I am happy to take there to be at least two in this trip!

I have said before that is sometimes dangerous to load up with bets across various columns, but I do think the opportunities to make profits at The Hawthornes this weekend is plentiful. I sense the market price on the goal lines are incorrect so as such I do need to take advantage. As well as loading up on the Over 2 ¾ goals as an outright bet I will take a piece of the Over 1 ½ goals for this column.

When a team quits in the NFL it is not good as the physical nature of the game means there is little room for even a few players not to perform at their optimum level. The New York Jets have quit for coach Adam Gase and this Sunday I expect the Indianapolis Colts to play very physically and look to run the ball against a team with minimal fight left in them. Load up for 2 points on the Colts in a game where they will not even need Philip Rivers too much.

Selections Back Indianapolis Colts Outright for 2 points @ 3/14 Back Over 1 ½ goals in Energetik v Isloch for 1 point @ 2/9 Back Over 1 ½ goals in Chelsea v West Bromwich Albion for 1 point @ 2/9

Our main bet was to take all three points from their opening home game against Southend United which was a game played in front of 1,000 fans at . From the beginning of last week, the Cumbrians were backed off the boards from around the 6/5 mark all the way down to 8/11 by kick off. Southend had slightly more of the ball in the game and I will not lie as after half an hour where the game remained goalless, I was beginning to get a little worried. However, I need not have been concerned as two goals in three minutes just before the half time interval from Omari Patrick and Josh Kayode ensured that the Carlisle took a lead into the half time interval. That is how the game finished as Carlisle had over 20 shots at goal whilst the visitors had little to offer and, having just been given a further six-week extension to pay off a near £500,000 debt, it looks like there is trouble ahead on and off the pitch for the floundering Shrimpers. After the game boss Chris Beech praised his side as he said he didn’t think his team started the game well but they did not gift goals like in previous matches which gave them a solid base to build from. What this result tells us in the long run about Carlisle I am not sure.

We liked the No on Both Teams To Score in the Exeter and Port Vale but didn’t want to dive in so early in the season, perhaps I should have done! Well actually there is no perhaps at all about it given the fact that Vale won 2-0 as the team from the Potteries soaked up a lot of pressure from the home side to take all three points thanks to a goal midway through each half. As you know we are on Vale for a top seven finish so we must be delighted with their two victories to start the season whilst I am not concerned at all about Exeter, they will be ok.

Forest Green looked interesting at home to Bradford given what I saw of Bradford in their midweek game against Lincoln and I have to say it was a bizarre game. Whenever Mark Cooper is involved in a game you get strange things happening and Bradford came away from the New Lawn with a share of the spoils despite finishing it, including playing the last twenty minutes, with just nine men. With the scoreline 0-0 at half time it looked like my thoughts on it being a low scoring game was to be a premonition, but the game exploded in the second half. The sides shared four goals, but it took a 96th minute equaliser from Aaron Collins to rescue a point for the home side. Prior to the game Forest Green owner tweeted out the message to the right here but in light of recent events you do have to wonder when the next time we shall see such instructions dished out to fans attending games in person.

I suggested that a Salford to win to nil at looked a decent play @ 3/1 and Ian Henderson crowned his League Two away debut with a hat-trick as the veteran striker sunk the Mariners. Even at the age of thirty-five Henderson has a touch of class about him and his finishing was the difference between the sides in Salford’s 4-0 victory as both sides had seven shots on target. In many ways I think Salford has been a last pay day for some players or a venue of choice for those who want the money more than the glory of playing at a level that they should be at. However, this season I do think that Graham Alexander’s side will be up there challenging for promotion League One. Going into the game last weekend I did warn everyone about the possible lack of firepower in that Grimsby line up and another week into the season those thoughts remain. If there was any pre-season optimism around , I think two straight defeats has ensured that those hopes have vanished completely.

“Can we get some internet engineers to Bolton please and restore all internet connections.” Those were the thoughts of many League Two fans and observers last Saturday night as Bolton lost their second game of the season 2-0 away to Colchester. I warned ahead of the trip that it was a dangerous game for a Bolton side who really have thoughts above their station, or at least their fans do, which puts pressure on them every game they play. After their first loss of the season there was plenty of social media abuse directed at their club captain Antoni Sarcevic which was widely condemned by ‘proper’ Bolton fans. That sort of cloud hangs over a club and boss brought in seventeen new players into the club over the summer and integrating all of those in such a short space of time is going to be exceedingly difficult. With the start that they have made the pressure is going to ramp up even more on them in the lead up to this pressure game against Newport this weekend which I will preview in detail later.

Historically Mansfield looked a great bet on the Draw/No Bet line, and I feel for any of you who waded in with the Stags last weekend as they threw away three points that were in their grasp. 2-0 up after eighty-two minutes should have seen Graham Coughlan’s side returning to having closed the game out. Jordan Bowery and Andy Cook had them two goals to the good but it was not enough as they conceded twice late in the game and I have to say given the words of Coughlan (shown left with CEO Carolyn Radford) over the summer months it did make me chuckle. The tough Irishman talked about cleaning house and getting in some strong characters only for them to throw away a two-goal lead in their first tough situation of the new campaign. I am not convinced on Coughlan personally, but he has taken over a club that always underperforms the level of ability of their players.

Although we did not cover the other games last weekend ahead of time at this stage of the season I think it is really important for us to look at the events of them and see if we can draw anything from them. We will start down in Sussex where Crawley beat 1-0 as the hosts got their first win of the season and Scunny continue to search for their first victory of the season. This result doesn’t go anywhere to change my opinion on either of those sides, but it is always important to acknowledge at this level how an early victory in the campaign can go to help ease those nerves. Last season Scunthorpe had a better squad than they do this season, but the pressure built up on them as they had such a terrible start to the season. Without a crowd in attendance teams in this situation may be able to readdress the balance quicker but we must keep a close eye on those winless teams as they could be worth opposing. It looks to me as though new Scunthorpe boss (shown right) has his work cut out and I know for certain I won’t be siding with the Iron for at least a few weeks, choosing to side against them though is a different matter entirely.

Harrogate and Walsall played out a 2-2 draw at the (I had forgotten that they started their season away from their spiritual home) as both sides maintained their unbeaten start to the campaign. Walsall took the lead thanks to a Rory Holden goal but fell behind by half time as Harrogate hit back through goals from Aaron Martin and Jack Muldoon (shown second right celebrating at Southend a fortnight ago). Walsall’s star striker Josh Gordon saved a point for the Saddlers with an 81st minute penalty following Holden being pulled down in the penalty box. Despite being reduced to ten men just five minutes later Walsall held on for a share of the points and I do think both sides will be delighted with their four-point haul from their opening two games.

At this stage of the season what we look for are results that are a little strange or over-rated that can lead to wild mis-pricings by the bookmakers and I am hoping we see that with Cambridge! I was in shock last Saturday night after I heard that Mark Bonner’s side had won 5-0 in Morecambe as the U’s absolutely humped the Shrimps. So often at this level games turn on small margins and can escalate quickly out of control when players of minimal ability, by professional standards, start to wilt under pressure. (shown right in his Norwich days) put Cambridge ahead after half an hour and by this standard of the game Hoolahan is effectively the Ronaldo of League Two! He may be thirty-eight years of age, but he has the wizardry and creativity to unlock any defence in this league and at the time of the game that he scored Morecambe were on top. Cambridge doubled their lead four minutes later when former Shrimps striker Paul Mullin curled a superb effort against the crossbar only for the ball to hit Morecambe goalkeeper Jake Turner and rebound into the net for an own goal. When Cambridge went 3-0 up just before the half time whistle the game was all over and I sense that the final score line was possibly more a reflection of the home sides inability to defend as opposed to any great strengths of the Cambridge team. We have seen over time that this Morecambe squad are resilient whereas we need to monitor the price on Cambridge over the next few weeks as I am keen to oppose them in the right spots, perhaps this weekend?

“He won’t see the season out” was the verdict on Barrow boss from the club’s supporters who were contacting BBC Radio on Saturday night. They may be right but to air those views after a 2-1 defeat away to Newport is nonsense because is a tough place to go and I am only berating myself for not selecting this last week as a home win @ 13/10. Granted this game was not taking place in February, in driving sleet, on a pitch that had seen three rugby matches that week and played in front of 3,000 angry Welshman but it is still a tricky place to go in September in the sunshine. Michael Flynn is an experienced League Two manager and any kind of result for Barrow in that game would have been a huge result for them. Two games in though and they fit into that no-win category as that loss followed up a draw against Stevenage who last season finished bottom of the table!

Talking of Stevenage and they beat Oldham 3-0 as three goals in twenty second half minutes just after the hour mark gave the home team all three points. Two games in and ’s men sit 22nd in the table with only Grimsby and Southend sitting below them. Stevenage have four points from their opening two games but I am not getting carried away with those results either but as I mentioned the other week I sense that Oldham will be a team that goes on runs of good and bad form. The way Kewell wants them to play means that they need to get the ball down and play which can normally only be executed well when you are playing with confidence. I am not sure where on the Confidence-ometer they currently are, do you?

The last game of last weekend saw my tip for the League Two crown head to Park as Michael Duff’s side looked to get off the mark following a disappointing late collapse at home to Morecambe in their first game. The Robins exploded into life on the Wirral as three goals in the first half gave Duff’s team all three points and they restricted Tranmere to just one shot on target. I am not going to downgrade Tranmere too much for the 3-0 loss as I rate Cheltenham highly and they have a very interesting game this weekend at Cambridge which I am sure I will cover in this weeks round up but first, where the games this weekend?

League Two Fixtures Saturday 26th September 3pm Kick Off Barrow v Colchester United Bolton Wanderers v Newport County Bradford City v Stevenage Cambridge United v Tranmere Rovers Cheltenham Town v Grimsby Town Mansfield Town v Exeter City Oldham Athletic v Crawley Town Port Vale v Harrogate Town Salford City v Forest Green Rovers Scunthorpe United v Carlisle United Southend United v Morecambe Walsall v Leyton Orient

The ‘Game of the Day’ is clearly in Bolton where the home side are under huge pressure ahead of their second home game of the season where this week, they take on Michael Flynn’s Newport. After two successive defeats to open the season the Trotters sit in 21st spot and how will they cope with this given the levels of expectation that we saw on them ahead of the season? The nearest comparable I can come up with to the plight of Bolton is the one that Portsmouth found themselves in when they were relegated to this level of the for the start of the 2013-14 season. I remember vividly writing from my Las Vegas offices (where I lived at the time) scattered around the famous ‘Neon Strip ‘about the specific issues that such a club have when dropping to such a low level. That season Portsmouth finished only 13th with an overall 14-17-15 record, and they started the season LDWDLDWLL as they gained just two victories in those opening nine games of their campaign. The lack of a crowd I think perhaps even makes it harder for Bolton to get themselves up for games and away from home under Flynn the visitors are an overall 16-14-19 against top half finishing sides. If we make the possible logical assumption that Bolton finish in the top six then that record for Flynn is 8-9-12 but on the road they are just 3-3-10 in this spot and have only once scored more than one goal on the road in this spot. It is that stat, and that stat alone, that stops me from siding with Newport here on the + ½ goal line as I sense this could end up a 1-1 draw. leads the line for Bolton and I was told last week that he is on £6k a week and although only time will tell if he is the one season wonder at this level that I predicted those sums of wages are nonsense. Bolton are yet to find the back of the net and if there was a crowd in attendance for this game then I sense that they may feel the pressure to be almost intolerable but with no home fans in the ground Bolton have a chance to get off the mark.

I am surprised to see Port Vale not be trading at odds on as they welcome Harrogate into and under the home team are 13-8-6 but that record is kind of distorted. When Askey took over, they were in a right mess and when he first sat in the home dugout as they started out 2- 1-5 so since then they are 11-7-1 on home soil with Askey in charge. We saw Harrogate draw with Walsall last time out and hand out a beating to Southend on the opening day of the season but in all truth how do we evaluate that win for them over Southend? I almost sense we should discard all results against Southend whilst admitting that it will give teams confidence if they can win and keep a clean sheet. I mean let us be honest Morecambe have been priced up as favourites for their trip to Southend and I cannot remember a time where the Shrimpers have been priced up as the jolly for an away game! Jack Muldoon (shown on the left above celebrating in a Lincoln shirt) has scored twice for Harrogate so far this season but I honestly think that their rich vein of scoring form, six goals in two games, is not indicative of how they will produce over the full season. Askey has been in charge for 55 games at Vale Park and they have a chance here to match their performance towards the end of last season when they won three straight games and are currently on a 6-4-0 run in League Two action. At a price of odds against I think Vale do look to provide some really good value to take all three points in this game as they have shut out Crawley and Exeter so far this season and both of these teams, in my opinion at least, rank as some of the better League Two attacking outfits. Home win.

Salford entertain Forest Green and after the chaos that we saw at the New Lawn last weekend (shown below) I am hoping for a more sedate game up north this weekend. Not that you would know from the picture underneath, where the compliant Rovers fans all wore their masks as requested by owner Dale Vince, the game ended in a bad- tempered manner. Surely not when Mark Cooper is involved? This is the sort of spot that Cooper struggles in as Forest Green have gone just 2-3-6 away to top six finishing sides. If we extend our assessment of Salford to a top half finishing side then Cooper’s teams record improves to 7-4-12 but I think we may be understating Salford’s ability if we class them as a top twelve as opposed to a top six team. As usual with Rovers game of late the Under 2 ½ goals is strongly favoured as it is a best priced 3/4 in the market with the Asian Handicap goal line set at just 2 ¼ goals. I do think that this will be a game in which the style in which it is played will suit Rovers but I am not sure as to whether they will be able to take anything from the game. This could be the game I decide to tune into on Saturday afternoon to watch but I am not as high on Forest Green’s chances in this one as I usually am when they hit the highway. Normally when I see them around the 3/1 mark on their travels, given their 24-17-25 League Two away record, I almost tempted to wade in blindly but on this occasion I will stay away.

Cambridge welcome Tranmere to the Abbey Stadium this weekend and I am a little gobsmacked by the pricings for this game. I am not saying that I think they are jaw droppingly incorrect, but I am slightly surprised that the away side were priced up as favourites to take the three points. Even though Cambridge won 5-0 away to Morecambe and Tranmere lost 3-0 at home to Cheltenham the bookmakers have not been tricked into pricing Cambridge up as the better side. Two weeks of data and results are not, or at least should not, be enough for bookmakers to amend all of the pre-season thoughts but I do think that we can take certain things from the early results. Cambridge created opportunities in both of their games, scored eight goals and they kept two clean sheets so whatever you may think of them long term what more could they have done in their opening two games? Nothing. At this level of English professional football not beating yourself and playing with confidence goes a long way to getting you results and the fact that they are not favoured for this game is incorrect pricing. Now I don’t want to fly in on the home team, but they have failed to score this season and when the sides met on this ground two seasons ago the game ended goalless. When Tranmere gained promotion to League One that season, they only went 6-8-9 on the road as most of their wins were earned in front of their own supporters at . Although that goalless draw at Mansfield on opening day was a good result for Mike Jackson’s (pictured right) men until I see them win away from home, I am happy to go against them.

Harry Kewell takes on his old club this weekend as Oldham host Crawley at and this is a seminal moment I feel for the Australian in his managerial career. I am sure people get sick and tired of me talking about Kewell and his preferred method of play but at this level I really think it is important to talk about it and that is not just because of the pretty football he wants them to play. It is the vast change that the teams he inherits have thrust upon them and that is born out by early season results. At Crawley when he took over they went 0-0-3 and began the season 2-1-5 in their opening eight games before he turned it round somewhat including one game where I was in attendance as his side ripped my Lincoln team to bits 3-1 in Sussex. When he took over at following the swift dismissal of in the 2018-19 season his Notts County team were beaten 3-1 and 5-1 in their opening two games and then drew their next two. By the time he was sacked in November County had gone just 3-4- 7 under him and his managerial reputation appeared in tatters. Why is this all important? Well what these stats show is that it takes a lot of time for Kewell to embed his preferred style of play into his players and you have to wonder if the basket cases that run the Latics will give him the time he clearly needs to get his message across? Crawley managed to brush aside what looks to be a poor team last weekend in the shape of Scunthorpe and on the + ¼ goal line I do think they look decent value to avoid defeat in this trip. With Oldham failing to score so far this season and the Under 2 ½ goals landing at a rate of 11-8 in ’ nineteen road games in charge of Crawley I do lean to the Under but it is not a particularly appetising price so I may just side step it.

What a beautiful picture we see below with football returning to Brunton Park as Carlisle hosted 1,000 fans and Southend last week with the home side registering a very solid 2-0 win. The home of Carlisle is a huge expanse of a crowd where it is easy to socially distant and I am very interested to see how the Cumbrians perform on this trip to Glumford, sorry Glanford, Park! Glumford is the very funny nickname us Lincoln City fans give the home ground of our rivals and it is a pretty atmosphere-less stadium. Since the start of last season Scunthorpe have gone

a pretty bang average 6-7-7 on home soil whilst since Chris Beech took over at the helm of Carlisle, they have gone 3-4-3 on their travels and did lose on opening day 3-0 at Cambridge. We kind of brushed over that first day defeat last week ahead of the games in Game week Two but since Cambridge won 5-0 at Morecambe do we read anything more into that loss given the fact that Carlisle appeared to dominate the game? The Cumbrians travelled back north with the three points last season in this fixture as they won 1-0 when the sides met last August and I do see them avoiding defeat but at this market price of 2/1 I just want to be a bit more greedy.

Selection Back Port Vale outright

Over the past five seasons that this has been running this column has become one of my most popular. As it says on the tin we look for a rush of goals and look to pinpoint games that have a better than projected chance of seeing three or more goals. Each game on the European card is ran through an algorithm I have created that throws out a projected goal value for the match. This is a purely statistical model which gives rise to the usual issues we see with mathematical projections, i.e. this is a game that cannot simply be measured by statistics. From the games the algorithm highlights I then conduct further detailed research into each match. This is to see if the backdrop behind the bare statistics still suggest the game is likely to see three or more goals.

The rules of this game are quite simple. We only bet at a price of 1.70 or greater as let’s be honest any old fool can back three or more goals in Barcelona versus Rayo Vallecano, apologies if I put that bet forward on the Bank Builder later this season ;-) We also like to bet in markets with tight pricing which draws us to the bigger leagues in Europe. That though is often a balance as we have historically had our best results in the less researched markets such as Norway and Poland. Therefore, there is always a trade off in those markets between slightly less tighter prices but perhaps some under the radar value.

We had one selection last weekend as we looked to get our first win of the season and we headed over the pond to steamy Florida for the game between Orlando City and Chicago Fire. The game was right on the cusp of our parameters, but we grabbed the 7/10 and we were rewarded by the 48th minute of the game as that is all it took for the bet to land. In truth it should have been cashed by the 35th minute but at 2-0 down the Fire missed an opportunity from the penalty spot to land us the win. When the Fire were awarded another penalty just after the half time break, I was pleased that Alvaro Medran was not allowed to make up for his earlier miss and Robert Beric pulled it back to 2-1 from twelve yards. Two further goals landed in the final twelve minutes to see the game end 4-1 and ensure that our first win of the season was a very comprehensive one.

Season Long Records 2-0 Over ½ goal 2-0 Over 1 ½ goals 1-1 Over 2 ½ goals 1-1 Over 3 ½ goals 2-0 Both Teams To Score -0.30 Points profit on 2 bets -15 % Return On Investment (ROI)

KS Cracovia v Rakow Czest in Polish Ekstraklasa, Saturday 2pm Kick Off UK Time The Polish topflight is a league where we have ventured sporadically over the last few years for the #GoalRush column and over time it has done us very well. This week we head to the Josef Pilsudski Stadium for this game where both sides come into this match on the back of four consecutive Yes on Both Teams To Score landing so far this season. Under home boss Michal Probierz Cracovia are a strong 11-7-2 at home to bottom half finishing placed sides but they have kept just four clean sheets in those twenty games with Over 2 ½ goals landing at a rate of 13-7. The sides met twice last season in the league and both meetings saw an Overs ticket land with Cracovia winning 3-1 on this ground and also scoring three times in the reverse fixture as they took all three points thanks to a 3-0 victory. At a market price of Even Money, I think the Over 2 ½ goals here offers some good value in a league that is already averaging 2.84 goals per game this season.

Selection Back Over 2 ½ goals in KS Cracovia v Rakow Czest @ Even Money

Before we look at Week Three the logical thing is to head back to Weeks One and Two to see if there is anything that we can learn that could help us moving forward. Where better to start than the raw numbers:

Home Teams SU 19-13 Home Teams ATS 17-14-1 Favourites SU 23-7 (Two PK’s) Favourites ATS 16-13-1 (Two PK’s) Overs/Unders 20-12 New Head Coaches SU 1-5 New Head Coaches ATS 1-5

Well as I would always say have after two weeks of the NFL we do not have huge amounts of data to use but we have to acknowledge that the Overs are killing it as they are cashing at a rate of 63%. We usually see an adjustment to totals when we see such runs as the books look to give them a little more protection against the Overs which is the favourite square play of those recreational bettors. The stat that is jumping out most to me though is those wo lines where we see New Head Coaches going just 1-5 both Straight Up and ATS as those newly appointed headmen have struggled to get to grips with their rosters in a much shortened off season. For the purpose of those stats I have not classed coaches such as Mike McCarthy and Ron Rivera, only newly appointed coaches in their first Head Coaching role. This week Kevin Stefanski (Browns) is a strong favourite on home soil whilst Joe Judge (Giants) and Matt Rhule (Panthers) both play the underdog role. I will be interested to monitor their performances moving forward to see if the books are considering enough the challenges these coaches face in their first season.

Before we look at Week Three let us take a look back to last Monday night which I have to say saw me get a little emotional as I saw the NFL arrive in the city that I love and used to reside in. A week is a long time in politics they say but what is five years in the NFL? I will tell you what it is, as five years ago my man crush Tony Romo was banned from appearing at a fantasy football camp in a Las Vegas Strip casino. Last Monday Night we saw the NFL unveil their latest franchise about 37 yards off of that aforementioned Strip as the Las Vegas Raiders opened their first season in Sin City with a 34-24 win.

Washington Football Team @ Cleveland Browns Browns -7 and 45 points The Washington Football Team lost 30-15 last Sunday in Arizona but in many ways the score line is not really a reflection of how the game panned out as they were never in it. Cleveland got a win last Thursday night, but it was hair ‘em scare ‘em stuff as their defense leaked yards galore to rookie Joe Burrow on a short week. If you read the comments coming out of the Washington locker room after the game last Sunday you would be encouraged as quarterback Dwayne Haskins (pictured right) referred to them being a young offensive unit that wants to learn. We have seen for two straight weeks how much fight they have in them and I sense with this number around the touchdown level that Washington will always be in this game from an ATS perspective. To be able to win and cover this line I sense that the Browns will have to find a way to run the ball against this powerful Washington front seven and that will be no easy feat. They will take great heart from the fact that Kenyan Drake ran for 86 yards from 20 carries last weekend whilst Kyler Murray also scampered for 67 yards. However, we all know that the Cardinals’ offense will be extremely hard to scheme for due to Murray’s unique rushing ability and Baker Mayfield does not have wheels like Kyler! What they cannot afford to do is to allow Mayfield drop back too many times and then feel panicked by the pass rush as we have seen time and time again how Mayfield is prone to turning the ball over when he gets happy feet. This is an incredible opportunity for Cleveland to move to 2-1 and point to their detractors that their loss has come against a Baltimore side who, by the end of Week 3, may be widely recognised as the best team in the entire NFL. The pressure on the Brownies will be huge though and laying a full touchdown I want no part of Mayfield and co playing under such pressure.

Las Vegas Raiders @ New England Patriots Patriots -6 and 48 points The Raiders christened their new stadium on the Las Vegas Strip last Monday night when they earned a fantastic win over the Saints to set them off to a somewhat surprise 2-0 start to the new season. A last- ditch goal line stop (shown right) from the Seahwaks defense stopped Cam Newton from leading the Patriots to a famous victory last Sunday night in an extremely exciting 35-30 win at Century Link Field. This is an interesting game for me as the Raiders have scored 69 points in their opening two games and last Sunday night, we saw the Seahawks clock 30 points against this much vaunted Patriot defense. What I will say though is that we know that New England very rarely lose back to back games and here they face a Raiders team forced to travel cross country on the back of a shortened working week. These two sides do not often face off very often but when they do Bill Belichick always finds a way to win the game. It is clearly Pats or Pass for me in this game and if you can get Bill and Cam at home at any level under a touchdown in any game this season then I think you will win far more games than you will lose. This will be another game where the Patriots will lean on their strong defense and this week Derek Carr will not give them the unique match up problems that Russell Wilson did. Pats and Under for me.

San Francisco 49ers @ New York Giants 49ers -4 ½ and 42 points We talked about coaching mismatches going into last weekend’s games and nowhere more was it seen in this stadium when the 49ers pummelled the Jets 31-13. Daniel Jones had a chance to win the game for the GMen in Chicago as he led a rally from 17-0 to 17-13 and then had throws into the endzone looking to win the game. This failed comeback was all against the backdrop of Saquon Barkley suffering a season ending injury that does not reflect well on some of the famous names in the Big Apple’s media market. In the run up to last week Barkley had seen his ‘toughness’ questioned by Giants legend Tikki Barber and given Barkley’s ACL injury the criticism now seems quite lame. San Francisco have stayed over on the East Coast this week in Virginia which is what they did last season when they were forced to play two

successive east coast road games and they won both. Although that was also at the beginning of the season the 49ers come into this game so banged up it is almost unbelievable. At one-point last week I think they had half of their starting defense from the previous week sat (or laid) on the sidelines. This is another game where we see a coaching mismatch as Joe Judge takes on Kyle Shanahan and that title is no slant on Judge it is just highlighting the issues that face a first year Head Coach this season. As we see by the stats new coaches are 1-5 ATS and here the 49ers can be backed as less than a touchdown against a Barkley-less Giants team. Just how many players though can the 49ers lose through injury and will Jimmy Garoppolo start after injury cut short his game last week on this turf. Talking of turf and the 49ers have been complaining about the surface in MetLife Stadium and San Fran will just want to get in and get out with a win. To me this feels like San Fran sneaking the game possibly by a field goal, so it is a pass from me.

Houston Texans @ Pittsburgh Steelers Steelers -4 and 45 points Talking of coaching mismatches and with regards to Houston are we talking about last weekend or this one? It seemed too easy to figure out that fading Bill O’Brien against John Harbaugh would have been a good play, but the Ravens ran out extremely easy 33-16 victors. Pittsburgh were in the favourites seat last Sunday and we have seen historically just how poor the Steelers are when placed as a strong favourite. They went off around the -7 level and when Drew Lock was knocked out of the game surely the Steelers were going to cover easily? Of course not, Mike Tomlin (pictured right grinning like a Cheshire cat) somehow made it really hard work as they ground out a 26-21 win in an empty Heinz Field. This line opened Pittsburgh -6 but we have seen an avalanche of Texan money and the volumes of cash we have seen for Houston is all based on the age-old NFL narrative. The Texans were one of those pre-seasons team that were fancied to get in the Play Offs and here they sit at 0-2 with their season on the line. Historically not many of those teams slip to 0-3 and bettors have poured into the market to support Deshaun Watson on the back of only his second NFL double digit against Baltimore who also gave him his first! If this game was being played in front of a sold out and noisy Heinz Field I would be really keen to side with the Steelers -4 but I sense the lack of an atmosphere in this game will assist Watson in being able to get some form of offense going in this game. I still think Houston are over-rated and Cooks and Fuller are struggling to stay on the field to help Watson through the air but if there is a week for them to overperform then this is it. Pass for me.

Los Angeles Rams @ Buffalo Bills Bills -2 ½ and 47 ½ points The Rams moved to 2-0 as the naysayers on Sean McVay’s team were made to lower their tone, at least for a while, as they won 37-19 in Philadelphia. Buffalo had to contend with not only a spirited Miami team down in steamy Florida but a temporary delay due to a lightening storm. Josh Allen had an incredible game as he threw for 417 yards and 4 touchdowns in a very entertaining 31-28 AFC East encounter. When you listen to the chat coming out of the Miami players after the game, they seemed shocked at the improvement they saw in Allen in his decision making and he will need to be on his A-game this weekend. Jared Goff started last Sunday’s game 13 for 13 and it was another excellent gameplan drew up by McVay for that trip to Philadelphia and he will have a lot of time this week to prepare. Most of that will have been spent on an aeroplane as unlike the 49ers the Rams have chosen to fly west coast to east coast, then back to LA, then back to Buffalo and then back to the west coast. I am not here to judge the travel plans, or any kind of planning, that the Rams organisation wish to make but I sense this could be a big ask for them. McVay seems to have got his play calling mojo back and going into this season we would have expected him to have needed it for this game as the consensus was that Buffalo had a top tier defense. How much of the disappointing performance from that Bills stop unit last week can be put down to the lightening delay that seemed to throw them off course? I am not sure, and it does make me a little wary of siding with Buffalo but laying less than a field goal I am happy to side with Sean McDermott’s men to get the job done.

Tennessee Titans @ Minnesota Vikings Titans -2 ½ and 48 ½ points The Titans opened an 11-point favourite last week ahead of their game with Jacksonville and by the time kick off came around they were only around a 7 ½ point jolly in the market. That move against them proved to be correct as they could only squeak out a 33-30 win as Stephen Gostkowski shut up all his critics from the previous week as he kicked a game winning field goal. Minnesota were terrible last week in Indianapolis as once again Kirk Cousins struggled against a team who we would level as around a .500 team as they were beaten 28-11 in front of a crowd the size of an Accrington Stanley home crowd in Lucas Oil Stadium. The week after you give up 151 yards on the ground to a rookie running back what you probably don’t want to see looking into your eyeline is a rampaging Derrick Henry. If Minnesota look to load the box to stop big Del, like Jacksonville did, then I am sure Ryan Tannehill will torch this pitiful Vikings secondary just like he did to the Jaguars’ last Sunday. This points total has climbed from by a full field goal an opening level of 45 ½ as punters have delved into the myth of the Minnesota defense and found that it is just that now, a myth, and that they are an absolute sieve. Such vast changes in that unit over this shortened off season has seen Coach Zimmer try and move too many players in and out of his scheme. Remind me of those stats on Cousins again? I am not sure where the Titans will end up come the end of the season but they have an incredible opportunity to get to 3-0 this weekend whilst one of their perceived main AFC South rivals in Houston could close out on Sunday 0-3. I just see Tennessee getting the job done due to the multiple ways in which they can attack the Vikings without the thought that they need to clock 30+ points to win the game. Give me Tennessee on the road laying less than a field goal. Back Tennessee Titans -2 ½

Cincinnati Bengals @ Philadelphia Eagles Eagles -5 and 46 ½ points The Bengals has extra rest ahead of this trip to Lincoln Financial Field and given the banged-up nature of the Eagles that could prove invaluable and may even be the deciding factor in this game. Cincinatti lost in Cleveland last Thursday night but once again Joe Burrow (shown left) impressed as the Bengals put in a very spirited display. The fact that Philly were set to lose at home to the Rams didn’t seem too much of an issue for them until the miraculous comeback by the Cowboys which now sees Philly trail Dallas by a game after their 37-19 loss to the Rams. This is another one of those games where a pre-season fancied team has started the season 0-2 and money has come in for them as the Eagles opened -5 ½ point favourites. Philly have struggled in the past two weeks against Washington and the Rams, but both of those teams have imposing defensive fronts whereas the Bengals’ defensive line is more pussy cat than Bengal tiger! After that loss last week Burrow spoke of how he isn’t used to losing and how he doesn’t like it very much. In fact the events of last weekend may be the first time in his life that he has lost two straight games but although I like the cut of his jib you do need more than words in this league. I see the Eagles grinding out an ugly win in this game. Can I lay the points with them, no? Do I trust them in an Acca, yes because they have to win don’t they?!

Chicago Bears @ Atlanta Falcons Falcons -3 and 47 ½ points Chicago sit at 2-0 but such are the fine margins of the NFL that they could and arguably should be stepping onto the plane to Atlanta at 0-2. Last Sunday they allowed an average Giants team to rally from 17-0 down to 17-13 and have chances to win the game in the final seconds. As I said last week Atlanta are the best NFL Fantasy Team you can imagine and if you have any of their players on your Fantasy roster you are probably sat at 2-0 in your leagues. How did they lose in Dallas last week? They led 20-0, 26-7 and 39-24 so the fact that they lost 40-39 is a real slap in the face for Dan Quinn given the fact he is supposed to be defensive expert? I have been so against both of these teams this season and here they meet and in many ways, I should be swerving this game completely but rather strangely I am being drawn towards betting one of them and I want to fight the urge! The NFL is now a passing and offense

driven league and both of those qualities are where the Falcons excel, and this is a 2-0 team on the road visiting an 0-2 team with their season on the line. The simple question to me here is how can Chicago keep up with this high-powered Falcons offense? Atlanta have scored 64 points in their opening two games whereas the Falcons have scored just 44 points whilst their much talked up defense allowed the Giants to march up and down the field last Sunday only holding them late on. Last week Atlanta became the first team since 1933 to be the recipient of three first quarter fumbles and find a way to lose the game. Take a bow Quinn (shown right) that is one heck of a feat. The Falcons defense may not be great shakes but I do think that they will be able to slow down Trubisky and the Bears just enough to see Atlanta move to 1-2 and stop the least impressive 2-0 side I can ever remember advancing to 3-0!

Carolina Panthers @ Los Angeles Chargers Chargers -6 ½ and 43 points Carolina showed some real spirit last Sunday in their defeat in Tampa Bay but the fact that Christian McCaffrey (shown right being attended to) limped off the field of play is a real worry for the Panthers and he is out indefinitely. It was a real surprise that Justin Herbert started last Sunday for the Chargers in relief for the injured Tyrod Taylor but I doubt given his level of performance that we will see Taylor again in a Chargers shirt as a starter. That did not stop Anthony Lynn saying at the beginning of this week that Taylor will start but it will be hard for him to look his team in the face after his shambolic handling of overtime in Los Angeles last Sunday. It was clear to see for everyone including Stevie Wonder that momentum had swung towards Patrick Mahomes and co last week so Lynn’s decision to punt on 4th and short in overtime, when running the ball is your strength, was beyond fathomable. This line opened LA -7 and for some reason money has come in for Carolina that has seen them trend to 6 ½ point dogs and through that key number of 7. However, the loss of McCaffrey in a Panthers uniform is huge and given that strong Chargers defense without their main weapon I have no idea how Carolina move the ball. With a minimal offense and a sieve like defense how do the Panthers stay in this game? I see the Chargers getting the job done Straight Up if not Against The Spread with the only thing stopping me from putting them forward as a main selection being the fact that Lynn may be true to his word and start Tyrod Taylor. Is he an idiot? No don’t answer that question.

New York Jets @ Indianapolis Colts Colts -10 ½ and 44 ½ points We saw an epic coaching mismatch last week in New York when Kyle Shanahan dominated Adam Gase and I just do not see how anyone can see how the Jets can even be competitive in this game? The Colts need to win this game and they will come into this with a lot of confidence following their 28-11 beat down on the Vikings. The fact that rookie running back Jonathan Taylor slammed it down the Vikings’ throat will give Frank Reich and his coaching staff a huge level of faith in their running game going into this game. We saw a possible first sign of quit from the Jets last week when the 49ers running back Jerick McKinnon ran for 55 yards in a 3rd and 31 situation where San Francisco had effectively given up on gaining a first down. As Rivers continues to get acclimatised to this Colts offense, I suspect we see the ball handed off continually to Taylor to grind down this Jets defense. We should all be sat here with a Colts -7 ticket that I advised last week so at this level we don’t need to get involved again at the current level siding with Indy. I will come on to a possible strategy for using that ticket we have later but at this +10 ½ level dare I say it that the Jets could offer some value as will the Colts expose Rivers if the game is done? At the current market levels, I see no value on the match line but there could be a small amount of value taking an Overs ticket. If the Jets defense has quit and the Colts run up the score a little, then the backdoor on that Overs will more than likely remain open throughout the latter stages of the 4th quarter.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Denver Broncos Buccaneers -6 and 43 ½ points We saw Tom Brady get back to winning ways last Sunday on his home debut against Carolina, but I am not sure what that means in the long run as the Panthers are dreadful. Denver are now 0-2 and don’t really look as though they can move the ball overly efficiently and you have to wonder if their 5 point loss in Pittsburgh is more down to how the Steelers always find a way to play games close. If you are a Denver backer ATS then you will have been laughing all the way to the bank over the last two weeks as they covered by ½ point in that strange home opener and then last weekend managed to cover with Jeff Driskel coming off the bench! We all know that when a backup quarterback comes into a game that they can have success given the fact that opposing teams have spent minimal time in their preparation ahead of the game drilling down into the specifics of that player. With Drew Lock already ruled out of this Sunday’s game we know that Tampa Bay will have spent all week studying game film of Driskel ahead of this game. That doesn’t bode well for Driskel and although this week Tampa coach Bruce Arians said Driskel is a “heck of an athlete” and thought he played well against the Steelers we all know that he is delighted to be facing him this weekend. Brady has been brought in to be almost a game manager of the Tampa offense and their solid defense should be able to keep Driskel in check enough to ensure that Tampa win the game. We have seen though over many years game with Brady where has been favoured on the road at levels approaching touchdown favouritism. He may be wearing a different uniform but until I see him comfortably cover a game in this line range, I want no part of backing him laying 6 points.

Detroit Lions @ Arizona Cardinals Cardinals -6 and 55 points We should all be on the Cardinals -3 ½ points for this one! Last weekend just proved to us all that Arizona are a far better team than the Lions as they smashed Washington 30-15 whilst the Lions were getting dismantled 42-21 in Green Bay as Aaron Rodgers only had to throw for 240 yards in the win. Aaron Jones ran for 168 yards off just 18 carries as the Packers were not needed to show their hand for future weeks as their run game beat down on the Lions who are now 0-2. This is another game where we should already be smiling as we took Arizona -3 ½ points before the Week Two games which has gained us a few points of line value. In fact, I was surprised last week when it was the Cards -3 ½ and even more surprised that when this line opened this week that it wasn’t Arizona laying a full touchdown. I mean who is wanting to back Detroit in this spot? Two weeks ago, Washington were -6 ½ for a trip to the desert and now Detroit have been lengthened from +3 ½ to nearly receiving a touchdown so the question is, how does Patricia’s team compare to Washington? If you would have asked me that same question a week ago then I would have said Detroit were a far better outfit but on the back of that heavy loss in Wisconsin I am not so sure. If you did not get some of the Arizona -3 ½ as advised last week I will say that even at -6 I think that the Cardinals do look to offer the value side in this game. A point line of 55 may seem high but I certainly won’t be betting the Under!

Dallas Cowboys @ Seattle Seahawks Seahawks -5 and 55 ½ points It was a comeback win for the ages last Sunday as Dallas overcame a huge deficit on home turf in front of around 20,000 fans in Jerry World as they beat the Falcons 40-39. Seattle also had a great win as they beat New England 35-30 as a fantastic goal line stand at the end denied Cam Newton from grabbing a win at Century Link Field. Seattle sit at 2-0 and the play of Russell Wilson is gaining a lot of rave previews from the media and public alike but do not let that fool you, not all is well in the Pacific North West. Pete Carroll’s defense is a shambles and that is not like the Hawks and even when they have not been as good from a metrics perspective they have always looked capable of coming up with a big play. I am not sure that this unit is like that and Dallas are

not the sort of team you want to be facing if you are wary of holding up against any competent offense. I always find intriguing when two teams come into a game both on the back off incredibly high scoring games as last week these two teams were involved in matches that yielded 144 total points. With that in mind is it any wonder that we see a point line set nearer 60 points than 50 points? You have to remember that crazy game in Dallas saw the Cowboys turn the ball over three times in the first quarter and still find a way to win the game which is a stat not equalled for nearly a hundred years! This total is very high and it would not surprise me if we saw both offenses look to slow the game down and control the clock fully cognisant of the momentum that the other teams offense can have over the game. A lean to the Under but nothing more than that.

Green Bay Packers @ New Orleans Saints Saints -3 and 52 ½ points It was all about Aaron in Green Bay last Sunday but it wasn’t the Rodgers in some ways as although he ran the offense very efficiently it was Aaron of the Jones variety who ran all over Detroit in a 42-21 win for the Pack. New Orleans are staring down the barrel here of a 1-2 start to the season after they lost as 5- point road favourites in the brand spanking new stadium on the Las Vegas Strip last Monday night when the Raiders beat them 34- 24. Green Bay have racked up an absolute shed load of points this season, but have they been the lucky recipients of taking on two of the worst defenses in the NFL? Maybe, maybe not and I think we will know a lot more about Green Bay’s long term prospects after this game as even if they do not win the game are they able to put in a solid display. There has been a huge market move in favour of the Packers as this line opened with the Saints installed as a -6 point favourite. Let us look at this rationally, is what we learned on Monday Night Football worth a field goal adjustment in the pricing of this game? Yes, New Orleans did not look great without Michael Thomas, but they still scored 24 points and is this a case of bettors getting carried away with Green Bay scoring 40+ in two straight weeks against extremely poor defenses? Is what we saw last Monday night enough to justify a full field goal adjustment in this line against the Saints? I don’t think so and I am happy to side with Drew Brees to get one over his old adversary Rodgers (pictured above together).

Kansas City Chiefs @ Baltimore Ravens Ravens -3 ½ and 54 points Both teams moved to 2-0 last weekend as the Chiefs won in Los Angeles and Baltimore won in Houston. The win for Kansas City may on paper look a very dodgy win but they had to cope with a late change at quarterback for the Chargers when Tyrod Taylor was injured pre-game and rookie Justin Herbert started his first NFL game. He provided completely different problems to the well- prepared Chiefs defense to what Taylor would have done so the way in which their defense eventually contained the Chargers’ offense was impressive. Patrick Mahomes took a long time to figure out the Chargers defense but if you give a good team and coaching staff enough time and hang in the game then they tend to work out a way to eventually move the ball. The picture to the left here shows just how far Lamar Jackson has progressed as on this play last week Jackson stepped up under duress and found tight end Mark Andrews for a long gain. No longer does he automatically take off when he feels the heat and that makes him a far more difficult quarterback to plan for. I am not sure that we see the deluge of points that the books are predicting as I sense both sets of coaching staffs will look at ways to limit the amount of time that the opposing offense is on the field. In no way though am I suggesting for you to back the Under 54 points now as this is the final game of the weekend on the card. Punters will be piling into the Overs during Sunday and Monday as they look to double up their winnings or chase their losses. If you like the Unders then you have to wait until about 5 minutes before kick-off and if you like the Overs then get on it now. What point line could we realistically see by game time, maybe 56 ½? On the match line I lean to the Chiefs +3 ½ as I am unsure that any team could ever entirely blow them out of a game and if you are receiving over a field goal on the handicap line then I am not sure I could ever suggest turning it down.

MAGIC WHITEBOARD WEEK TWO

Well we managed to land our first bets of the season on the Whiteboard this weekend and we will start with the 3 Team 6 Point Teaser that landed at around 1238am on Sunday morning when KC won the game by 3 in LA. The first bet of the night to land was the Jonathan Taylor Over 56 ½ rushing yards in Indianapolis as the big back ran all over the Vikings’ putrid defense. I am sure that we would have had another winner in Chicago as Saquon Barkley (pictured left) was just getting going against the Bears when he went down not once but twice! Sadly, on the second occasion he suffered a season ending ACL injury that has seen him already undergo surgery. Who knows what the future holds and whether Barkley, like Adrian Peterson back in 2012, can make a full return to his former self but I wish him a very speedy recovery. Our final bet on the player markets was for Tom Brady’s new pet Scotty Miller to go over 44 ½ receiving yards and it lost by a wide margin. With Chris Godwin out the media narrative, after the game, was that Miller was not targeted as much due to extra coverage. Nonsense! The reason Miller was only targeted three times for his twelve yards was the fact that his second target saw him drop around a 20 odd yard touchdown. If you drop a catchable ball from Tom Brady, then please do not expect to receive another pass anytime soon!

Our 5 Game Total Teaser was sunk by 3 points in the Colts/Vikings game where we saw just 39 points as we went 4-1 again in our selections. We go again next week! Finally, our long shot treble never got close and the Eagles even lost their game outright.

Look out for me valiantly trying to get some more winners for you next week from anytime after lunchtime (depending on how organised my weekend has been).

Regular readers will know all about the Super Contest but for those who are new to either the magazine or NFL betting let me give you the run down on this great competition.

They call this the greatest gambling competition in the world. It is so great that in September 2013 I moved to Las Vegas to participate in it! It is a ‘buy in’ tournament organised by the Westgate that costs $1,500 to enter and each week your aim is to pick NFL games against the spread. The lines for each game are posted at 5pm Las Vegas time on a Wednesday and all weekly selections are due by 11am Las Vegas time on a Saturday morning. Prize money is based on the number of entries and last year 3,328 contestants took part with the winner collecting a massive $1,469,644 thanks to their 58-25-2 record which equates to 68.2%. The past six years winners have all recorded performances between 65.9% and 76.2% to walk away with the prize fund.

Obviously, I love the NFL and that was my primary reason for entering the tournament, but it truly was an eye- opening experience for me from a wagering perspective. The weekly process of selecting my bets taught me so much about how I approached my betting, in terms of thought processes and risk analysis, that I would suggest everyone has a go at this. Even if the NFL is not a sport you primarily bet in or even have a huge amount of knowledge on it can be a huge learning tool to look at how you yourself make selections. The key learning point that I took from the whole process is that it is ok to pick losers. When you say that out loud it would at first thought seem quite a ridiculous statement to make but the acceptance of that simple fact that you will make losing bets will greatly help you moving forward. NFL spread bets by their very nature have a coin toss probability and any record of 55% or better is a truly incredible performance. This is where risk management and obtaining what you perceive to be value becomes crucial.

I won’t tell you exactly what I learned about my own gambling but if you want to take a guess by looking at my selections over the next few weeks then don’t hesitate to message me. I soon realised that there were certain games at specific price points where I was better at assessing the risk of each side and had a much larger strike rate than in other games at different line levels. I hope that makes sense to you. All I can suggest is that you have a go and see if you find any kind of trends where you perform well.

A little bit more about the Contest:

Launched in 1988, the Westgate Las Vegas SuperContest is the longest-running football handicapping contest. The (formerly Hilton) SuperContest is so popular that a second version of the contest, SuperContest Gold, is now available for high rollers. Here’s how it works: Contestants for SuperContest and SuperContest Gold both pick five games against a static point spread each week. Each correct pick equals one point. A push counts as half a point.

At the end of 17 weeks, the handicapper with the most points is the winner. While this may sound easy, the 2019 winner of the Super Contest only had 59 winners out of 85 picks.

WESTGATE SUPERCONTEST RULES 2020

The entry fee for the Las Vegas SuperContest costs $1,500. The fee for SuperContest Gold is $5,000. While the entry fee for SuperContest Gold is more than three times higher, the traditional SuperContest pays more money since it as far more entries. There have been 3,328 entries to this year’s SuperContest with the winner set to take home $1,469,644.80 with prizes ranging into six figures down to 9th spot and the top 100 places all receiving cash prizes back to them at a level well over their entry fee.

Non-Nevada Residents (hence why I moved to Las Vegas for six months) Don't live in the state of Nevada? No worries! You can still enter the biggest pro football handicapping contest in the world! Out of state registrants may select a local proxy* to place their weekly SuperContest® selections. All registrations must take place in person at the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook®, and registrants using a proxy service must have their proxy with them. Westgate Las Vegas Resort and Casino is not affiliated with any proxy service.

The lines are published at 5pm Las Vegas time every Wednesday afternoon and because of that we often see wild line moves based on player injuries or wise guy money. I am looking forward to sharing with you my picks and my reasonings each of the seventeen weeks of the regular NFL season.

Last weekend we went a solid 3-2 and to a season level 5-5 as we had three easy wins and two losses which were never really in doubt!

Our victories were in Arizona where the Cardinals had an easy 15-point victory when priced up as 6 ½ point favourites but for large parts of the game they were 20+ points to the good. Philip Rivers turned back time in Indianapolis as he led a very disciplined Colts victory over a Vikings side who look a somewhat defensive shambles at times. Mike Zimmer has been known for his strong defenses over the years but the sheer volume of changes in that unit is proving problematic to success in Minnesota. Given all the injuries that the 49ers were facing before the game in New York my decision to back San Francisco laying 6 ½ points against the Jets was largely due to it being an epic mismatch in the coaching battle. I was proven correct as Kyle Shanahan’s (left) side smashed Gang Green 31-13 despite facing a deluge of in-game injuries to pile on the problems that the 49ers were already experiencing.

The two losses we saw were Dallas who despite winning the game were never really in with a shout of cashing on the -4 ½ point line whilst the Eagles went back and forth for three quarters with the Rams before Sean McVay’s team pulled away.

This week’s card is……………..

HOME TEAM ROAD TEAM LINE Jacksonville Jaguars Miami Dolphins Jaguars -3 New England Patriots Las Vegas Raiders Patriots -6 ½ Buffalo Bills Los Angeles Rams Bills -2 ½ Pittsburgh Steelers Houston Texans Steelers -4 New York Giants San Francisco 49ers 49ers -4 Minnesota Vikings Tennessee Titans Titans -2 ½ Cleveland Browns Washington Football Team Browns -7 Philadelphia Eagles Cincinnati Bengals Eagles -5 Atlanta Falcons Chicago Bears Falcons -3 Indianapolis Colts New York Jets Colts -11 Los Angeles Chargers Carolina Panthers Chargers -6 ½ Arizona Cardinals Detroit Lions Cardinals -5 ½ Denver Broncos Tampa Bay Buccaneers Buccaneers -6 Seattle Seahawks Dallas Cowboys Seahawks -5 New Orleans Saints Green Bay Packers Saints -3 Baltimore Ravens Kansas City Chiefs Ravens -3 ½

Week Three Selections Patriots -6 ½ Titans -2 ½ Falcons -3 Cardinals -5 ½ Saints -3

Can we or should we ever turn down the opportunity to take New England as less than a touchdown favourite at home? We saw them win in this spot-on opening day against Miami and here they take on a Raiders team who I think are one of the weaker 2-0 teams. I suspect the Titans will be just far too physical against a Vikings side who look bereft of offensive options and despite them sitting at 0-2 I do not see much fight coming out of Mike Zimmer’s men. I will take Matt Ryan and Julio Jones, possibly on their own, to beat the Bears this week and cover a -3 spread whilst even though we have lost two points of line value from last week I have to take Arizona -5 ½ as we have not gone through a true key number. New Orleans opened the week -6 at home to the Packers and now are just laying a field goal. The Saints are clearly less of a team without Michael Thomas, but I am not sold on Green Bay yet and I am not convinced this line that suggests that they are teams of almost equal merit. Last week I suggested that we looked to back the Cardinals -3 ½ for medium stakes and the Colts -7 for small stakes ahead of this weekend and I have to say both were incredible bets to make at that point in time. We will certainly have closing line value (CLV) as the games have both moved a field goal in our favour following last weekend’s games. Now obtaining CLV does not always mean you will win your bet but it means you got a value bet and also in certain situations, like both of these games this week, it can give you options. What you choose to do with those options is down to you and I don’t want to try and get you to hedge either but I want to make sure you are aware of the options.

We know that the Colts will look to get the job done against the Jets to move to 2-1 and I am sure that Adam Gase’s side will look to shorten the game. With that line escalating over 10 points to the 10 ½ mark I do think that it leaves the back door permanently open and I could be tempted to take the Jets +10 ½ knowing that a loss between 8-10 points for the Jets would cash me BOTH tickets. The case to hedge off the Cardinals ticket is less as although it takes us through the key numbers of 4 and 6 we do not get that full touchdown that I would want before looking to hedge that Cardinals -3 ½ ticket that we already have in our possession.

Only time will tell though if we get Closing Line Value (CLV) so let us look ahead to next week’s games where I think there are a few games that we could see movement in:

HOME TEAM ROAD TEAM LINE New York Jets Denver Broncos Broncos -2 ½ Houston Texans Minnesota Vikings Texans -4 Detroit Lions New Orleans Saints Saints -4 Washington Football Team Baltimore Ravens Ravens -12 Carolina Panthers Arizona Cardinals Cardinals -3 ½ Chicago Bears Indianapolis Colts Colts -2 Miami Dolphins Seattle Seahawks Seahawks -6 ½ Tampa Bay Buccaneers Los Angeles Chargers Buccaneers -4 ½ Tennessee Titans Pittsburgh Steelers Titans -2 ½ Cincinnati Bengals Jacksonville Jaguars Bengals -3 Dallas Cowboys Cleveland Browns Cowboys -4 ½ Los Angeles Rams New York Giants Rams -9 ½ Las Vegas Raiders Buffalo Bills Bills -2 ½ Kansas City Chiefs New England Patriots Chiefs -7 ½ San Francisco 49ers Philadelphia Eagles 49ers -3 ½ Green Bay Packers Atlanta Falcons Packers -5 ½

There is only one place we can start and that is in the Lone Star state where Houston welcome the Vikings into NRG Stadium for what, no matter what happens this week, we will be describing for the Texans as a ‘must win’. I have no idea why this opening number is not Houston -6?! If Houston come into next week 0-3 then they will be a ridiculously desperate team who will put their season on the line but even if they go into the game 1-2 I sense they will still be two games out of first place in the AFC South. That is because I sense that the Tennessee Titans will take care of business up in the Twin Cities and dispose of the Vikings sending them to an 0-3 start. If that is the case the narrative for Minnesota travelling south will be that they are 0-3 with a quarterback who cannot beat decent teams and with a secondary that makes a chocolate teapot look relatively solid. If that game ends in an easy Titans win then this line could be Houston -8 by next Monday!

If the Chargers disappoint as a strong favourite this weekend, then Tampa Bay could strengthen to around the -6 level and if Aaron Rodgers racks up another 30+ point week then they will be a touchdown favourite at home to Atlanta. If, and it is a big IF, Lamar Jackson runs all over KC this coming Monday Night Football then don’t be surprised if we see the Patriots only be available +6 ½ against the Chiefs in a weeks’ time. Who better than Bill Belichick for punters to trust to deliver a similar game plan with Cam Newton under centre?

Look Ahead Bets For Week Four Back Houston Texans -4

 Premier league  European football  nfl week four  league two  Bank builder  #goalrush