You will see this week that I have re-hashed an old article that I first published a few months ago with regards to Staking and Bank Strategies (some bits of it may still be the same than in its first publication). I decided to do this last Saturday night when I got out and about my beautiful cathedral city (apologies for my dodgy camerawork) for some fresh air following the news of the new UK ‘Lockdown’. I put the word lockdown in inverted comma’s as most people are still going out the house everyday so not quite sure it is he right word to use but most of us should have more time on our hands during the month of November. We should utilise any time this month for some reflection on our betting strategies and how we can best use the many bonuses and welcome offers that betting companies offer. Take a read, or a re- read, and let me know what you think and tell me if you think I have left anything of that jumps out at you. This is a collective effort to take money off the bookmakers!

This week we have a few recaps of League Two bets made pre-season and also some NFL wagers made ahead of time. Talking of NFL bets, take a look at what is pictured to the right here. It saddens me to say that this is the last time you will see the NFL Magic Whiteboard. I enjoy betting certain markets in the NFL as I love the research that it entails in terms of game flow and how the match may progress. The match and points teasers have done ok but the Player Market bets have been absolutely terrible. In the words of Kenny Rodgers, you have to “know when to hold them and know when to fold them.” We are doing too well at present to fritter away the odd £5 here and the odd £5 there and erode our profits. So long Magic Whiteboard, I shall miss you.

What a week we have seen over in America where it has been election week, the culmination of four years of madness. Surely by Wednesday everyone would be wanting to take a rest after spending all their energy over the last few weeks and months. I have to say the picture posted to the left here made me howl when I opened it up on Wednesday afternoon. Love him or loathe him he certainly is as entertaining as he is dangerous. Donald Trump seemed to want everyone to stop counting in states where he was leading whilst those states where he was losing, he wanted a formal investigation for fraud. After four years of him you would think you would never be lost for words but even I was temporarily speechless by his behaviour on Wednesday. The Kevin Keegan mockup picture was genuis so I tip my hat to those involved in creating it as it certainly made my day!

On a serious note though I do feel for all my good friends in Las Vegas and any of my fellow subscribers who are having to life through this nonsense on the other side of the pond.

All the best, if you have any questions then please fire them over, have a great weekend and stay safe. Jimmy Kempton Editor *All prices and statistics quoted, unless stated, are correct as of 6am Thursday 5th November*

EPL STATS SO FAR THIS SEASON HOME TEAM RECORD ATS 22-40 (6 Pushes) UNDER OVER 1 ½ GOALS 15-53 UNDER OVER 2 ½ GOALS 29-39 UNDER OVER 3 ½ GOALS 42-26

Brighton & Hove Albion v Burnley Brighton – ½ and 2 ½ goals For me this is the game of the weekend and why I love betting so much. Stop laughing! I mean it as I love these kinds of bets where I know I have value. Does that fact always top up your bank balance? Well no it does not but you know you have value when you can back teams like Burnley in this spot. I am shocked and appalled that the line opened Brighton – ½ for this game but the fact that it did had me jumping for joy and even more so when Burnley got a slight spanking last week by Chelsea when they lost 3-0 at Turf Moor. Burnley did not create much in the game but their record against the better sides in this league is a known evil that they seem unlikely ever to overcome, these are the games where they excel. Brighton were in action the following day at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium and I was proposing the fact that the Seagulls might get a bit of a pasting. They lost the game, but it was far from a hammering as they lost 2-1 as it took a relatively late winner from Gareth Bale condemned Brighton to defeat. The sides have met six times in Premier League action since December 2017 with half of the games ending all square including this fixture last season which ended one apiece. Brighton did win 2-1 up at Turf Moor back at the back end of July in the latter stages of the last Premier League season. Only two of those six games have seen an Over 2 ½ goals bet land and probably most interestingly of all the home team in the game when these sides meet have won just one of those six games. Under Sean Dyche the Clarets have an incredible record on their travels away to bottom half placed sides as they have gone 15-12-16 in this spot which equates to a 27-16 record on this line (63%). To begin with I was really annoyed that this game was the first game of the weekend kicking off at 530 pm this Friday evening but then when I thought about it I did a little happy dance because let’s do the checklist of what we like:

1. To oppose favourites 2. To oppose favourites at home around the Even Money mark 3. To oppose favourites in standalone spots in live TV games

It is not even as though Brighton have a great track record at home since Potter took over at the beginning of last season as they have gone just 5-8-9 at the AMEX Stadium. Those wins have come against a wide variety of opponent as their victories have come against Arsenal, Bournemouth, Everton, Norwich and Tottenham. Admittedly Dyche’s men have begun the campaign poorly as they are 0-1-5 overall and have netted just three goals so far this campaign. However, they are so strong when hitting the road to take the poorer teams in the league and this is no small sample size given the length of time that Burnley have been in the top flight that you have to take Burnley + ½ goal in this spot. It is the kind of bet that even if it loses you should never ever regret making the wager. It is also the kind of bet I love making as I won’t want to watch this game so there is emotional tie to the game, that you often get when watching a match, when your bet is settled. Back Burnley + ½ goal

Southampton v Newcastle United Southampton – ½ and 2 ½ goals Both teams come into this game on the back of victories last time out as they earned good wins against opponents who had begun their own campaigns in fine fashion. Southampton survived a bit of a late scare in their 4-3 win at Villa Park as they had led 4-0 at one point in the game before three goals in the final half hour for the home side made it a nervous last few seconds. Newcastle beat Everton 2-1 as a brace from my own star Fantasy Football man Callum Wilson saw them knock the Toffees off the top of the table. I seem to remember seeing this line a few times over the past few seasons when the Saints have entertained Newcastle and I cannot remember if we have taken advantage of it before! Newcastle have avoided defeat in each of their last three trips to St Marys and last season they won this game 1-0. In fact, the Geordies are unbeaten in all six of the Premier League meetings since October 2017 with the Magpies going 4-2-0 when the sides meet. Over the last five and a bit seasons Southampton are just 23-23-36 at home in Premier League action if you exclude their performance against newly promoted teams. That will go some way to explain the fact that this line opened Southampton – ¾ and has subsequently trended down to the Saints favoured by just half a goal and the goal line has moved down in line to just 2 ½ goals from its opening point of 2 ¾ goals. Danny Ings (shown above left) has been ruled out for six weeks due to injury and I sense that has also played into this line move against the Saints and the goals in the game. Laying half a goal I would almost be tempted, despite that horror show of a record on home soil, to back Southampton here but the loss of Ings stops me from siding with the home team Saints. Ings has scored five and assisted two of the Saints’ fourteen goals this season and the gap that he leaves as the spearhead of that Southampton line up is a huge one to fill. Newcastle have begun the season well but now this line has moved to a half goal it is tough to try and back a team who are 16-20-43 overall on the road over the last few seasons.

Everton v Manchester United United – ¼ and 2 ¾ goals Both teams come into this game on the back of disappointing losses as United were felled 1-0 on home soil by Arsenal and Everton were beaten 2-1 away at St James Park. In many ways I feel sorry for Ole Gunnar Solskjaer on Sunday night as Arsenal’s 1-0 win at Old Trafford was more viewed on social media as a way to lampoon just how far United have fallen rather than praise Arsenal. It did nothing though to honour the memory of United and England legend Nobby Stiles who passed away on Friday afternoon and the sight of Paul Pogba swanning around in the United midfield was not a good look on such a sad occasion. In the same week that it was announced that Sir Bobby Charlton has been diagnosed with dementia it is a telling reminder of just how much these current stars in at Old Trafford, and those who represent all Premier League teams, owe to these former greats. Who would have thought that this line would be Scratch when it opened earlier in the week! Money has since come for United to make OGS’ men ¼ goal favourites to take three points from the game. Both games between the sides last season ended one apiece and in April 2019 the Toffees won this fixture 4-0. United have won only three of the last eight Premier League meetings of the two sides and you have to say Everton are a far better proposition to bet on this season than they have been in many years. Everton have had all week to prepare for this game whereas Manchester United were involved in Champions League action in Turkey when they played Istanbul Basaksehir. The toll on these players both physically and mentally must be starting to take its toll on these players and you wonder if the teams who just have the Premier League to concentrate on are much better placed in certain spots. If the Toffees had earned a point away to Newcastle last weekend then I think I would be happy to take them here + ¼ goal but at the same time they may not even have been on offer at that price point for the game. This is a heavy lean from me towards Carlo Ancelotti’s men, but I can’t back them until they stop conceding goals. If you remember last week, I put forward the theory that Ancelotti would have been hard at work on the training ground looking to improve their leaky defence. He may well have been, but it didn’t work as Newcastle scored twice and that is now five games in a row now where Everton have conceded twice!

Crystal Palace v Leeds United Scratch and 2 ½ goals Palace lost 2-0 last Friday night away to Wolves in a game that did not pan out exactly how Roy Hodgson would have wanted, both in game flow and in the final score line. In a game where it appeared it favoured both sides not to have the ball Palace had 55% of the ball but could not take anything from the game. Leeds got spanked 4-1 by Leicester last time out at Elland Road and it was a game that saw the unpredictability of the Yorkshire club as they continued their inaugural season back in the Premier League. Since Roy Hodgson's first game in charge in September 2017, the Eagles have failed to score in 39 Premier League matches. Only rivals Brighton have done so more (40). Once again, we saw pure contempt of the Eagles shown by the bookmakers when this game opened Leeds – ¼ but that spanking for them last time out has seen punters flee them in droves. Palace are a very well organised and well drilled Premier League outfit and you have to say it is pretty insulting for them to not even be favourites for this game. However, there are real trends as to why the home side should not be too strong of a favourite for this game and I sense we know why. Under Roy Hodgson Crystal Palace are an overall 9-4-5 against newly promoted sides and on home soil the Eagles are 4-2-2 in this spot with their losses in this spot both coming via 1-0 score lines. Unlike other games when Palace take the field there is a real expectation that they take the game to the opposition and we know that is not where their strengths lie. This line keeps switching between Scratch and Leeds – ¼ goal. I do lean to Palace, not with as much energy as if they were getting + ¼ goal, but yet again this season I am going to swerve them. I promise you Mr Roy I shall be backing your boys sometime soon, just not yet.

Chelsea v Sheffield United Chelsea -1 ¼ and 2 ¾ goals It was an unusual hero that the Chelsea fans were talking about last Saturday night as Frank Lampard was racing about new signing Hakim Ziyech. Making his first league start for the Blues, Ziyech wrong-footed Burnley keeper Nick Pope, expertly dispatching Tammy Abraham's lay-off in the 26th minute to net his first Premier League goal. "I'm really impressed and really excited. I could see his personality and work-rate off the ball," Lampard said. "That bit of quality gives us something different" and the way in which he spoke of the Moroccan international and I sense we are now beginning to see what Lampard wants in terms of a starting line-up. Chelsea’s six key summer signings, Kai Havertz, Ben Chilwell, Edouard Mendy, Thiago Silva, Ziyech and Timo Werner all started for the first time after Werner replaced Christian Pulisic who awaits a scan after tweaking his hamstring in the warm- up. Over the last few seasons, we have seen the weakness of Chelsea in these home spots laying more than a full goal against considerably weaker opponents. Both meetings of the sides last season were entertaining with this fixture ending 2-2 in late August 2019 whilst in the reverse game in Yorkshire the Blades tore Frank Lampard’s men apart as they won 3-0. Chelsea are 12-4-6 on home soil under Fun Time Frank but those losses do include defeats at the hands of Bournemouth, Southampton and West Ham so they are vulnerable in this spot to the lower teams. Last time out at Stamford Bridge they threw away three points when they allowed Southampton to claw themselves back into the game despite trailing 2-0 at one point in the match. I have to lean to the home team purely due to Sheffield United failing to score more than once in each of their last fourteen Premier League away games and this Chelsea time’s ability, at any point, to create a whole bundle of chances. Home team or pass for me.

West Ham United v Fulham West Ham – ½ and 2 ½ goals West Ham took the lead at Anfield last Saturday as, just as we expected, they found a way to breach the defending Champions’ backline. They only succumbed five minutes from the end when Diogo Jota slid the ball home and the result disappointed Hammers boss David Moyes who spoke to the media after the game. "It’s a good sign that we’re disappointed not to take anything from Anfield. The players are disappointed not to get anything from the game. We had good opportunities to maybe get a second goal. I wanted it to be more than just the odd counterattack. We were a threat; we were well organised and disciplined in the jobs we had to do. The plan is to get better. We want to make sure the players play well when they get the chance. They certainly did that today." It was a fantastic win for Fulham last time out when they took their first three points for the season when they overcame West Brom at home 2-0. Under normal circumstances this would be a fierce London rivalry that would see an intense atmosphere within the London Stadium. When the sides last met in Premier League action the Hammers executed a league double with a 2-0 win at Craven Cottage being followed up by a 3-1 win in this ground on a cold night back in February 2019. Over the last few seasons, the home side are just 4-2-3 against newly promoted teams and last season were held by Aston Villa and Sheffield United in this spot. They did beat Norwich 2-0 in this spot during the last campaign and I am starting to draw direct comparisons between that Canaries side and Scott Parker’s Fulham. Do we mark them up due to their win last time out against West Brom? The answer is a big fat no in my book! It is hard enough for me to back West Ham at the best of times but I have so many of their fans chirping in my ear at the minute I suppose I am going to have to do it. In all reality though it is not a difficult choice for me to select the home team in this game to take all three points as their form this season has been strong. They have shown great resiliency of late and they are a well-established Premier League team who are welcoming in a side in Fulham who have really struggled to make a mark this season. Home win. Back West Ham – ½ goal

West Bromwich Albion v Tottenham Hotspur Tottenham -1 and 2 ¾ goals The Baggies lost 2-0 out at Fulham in their last game and I sense that result was very disappointing result for Slavan Bilic as I am sure he would have thought that they would have at least earned a point from that trip. Spurs did just enough last Sunday afternoon at home to Brighton to sneak a 2-1 win thanks to goals from Harry Kane and the returning Gareth Bale at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium. Can you trust Spurs laying a full goal on the road? Historically this has not been a happy hunting ground for Tottenham as they are just 1-3-1 in their last five trips to this ground. Despite the Yes on Both Teams To Score going 4-2 in the last six meetings of the teams in Premier League action only one of those games saw an Over 2 ½ goals bet land as there were four draws in those six matchups. This is that famous spot that we used to profit from hugely by backing Spurs as under Mauricio Pochettino they were incredible in this spot. Since the start of the 2015- 16 season Spurs are an overall 25-3-2 against newly promoted teams and 12-2-1 on the road in this spot. It is a small sample size but 2-1-1 of that thirty-game record has been earned by Jose Mourinho with a 1-1-1 performance on the road in this spot. I do think Tottenham will take all three points from this game but the fact that they have only kept one clean sheet all this season really concerns me if I am having to surrender a full goal in this game stops me from backing them. If you had the chance to back Spurs – ¾ goal, and I have no real belief the line will move in that direction, then I would probably take a little piece of it. However, I sense such talk is meaningless as we are not getting anywhere close to that line being the prevailing market line.

Leicester City v Wolverhampton Wanderers Leicester – ¼ and 2 goals It was a fantastic away day showing from Leicester last time out when they hammered Leeds 4-1 with a typically ruthless attacking showing as they hit Leeds relentlessly on the break during transition. The Foxes only had 32% of the ball but as we all know it is possession with purpose as they registered eight shots on target as opposed to Leeds’ four strikes on Kasper Schemical’s net. Wolves beat Crystal Palace 2-0 last time out and those three points temporarily moved them up to 3rd place in the Premier League table. Youri Tielemans (shown left) netted a brace of goals in Leicester’s trip to Elland Road and the young Belgian has proven to be an excellent acquisition for the team based at the King Power Stadium. Both games ended goalless last season as the teams cancelled each other out which has probably gone some way to help push this goal line down to just 2 goals from its opening level of 2 ¼ goals. It does seem to be flipping between the two lines so depending on which side of it you want to take, either the Under or the Over, then it may be worth waiting until the line that favours you becomes the prevailing market line or buying up or down a quarter goal. Wolves' move into, even temporarily as they now sit in 6th spot, a third-place position in the Premier League is their highest this far into a top-flight season since October 1979, when they went on to finish sixth and win the League Cup. Both of these teams have made so much progression over the last ten years it is truly remarkable as when I was a kid both of these sides tended to languish down in the lower reaches of the Championship and even had seasons in League One. They are now both well-established Premier League teams who you have no belief will b involved in any relegation trouble. I do wonder about this line though. should it be Leicester – ½? Would it be if they had not already let punters down on home soil against both Aston Villa and West Ham? I think it would be. With that in mind I sense there is some value with the home side but those two defeats have scarred me and more importantly cost me hard earned cash so I am going to keep well away from the Foxes for this one.

Arsenal v Aston Villa Arsenal – ¾ and 2 ¾ goals I thought it was really harsh last Sunday night for the footballing world to see Arsenal’s 1-0 win at Manchester United as a way to criticise United rather than praise Arsenal for finally breaking that footballing hoodoo of not winning away to good sides. It was not the greatest contest between two clubs who used to fight it out for the biggest prizes but are now a pale imitation of their former selves. I found Mikel Arteta’s team selection interesting as it saw Elneny picked ahead of Granit Xhaka and the Egyptian put in a busy performance showing much more energy than Xhaka would ever have been able to. Sometimes Arteta really confuses me and after the game his comments once more left me scratching my head. "I wanted to generate belief and I asked them to be who we are as a team right now. I am delighted because we played with a lot of courage and big personality. They played a tricky formation with four midfielders and two that constantly strain your back four. We could have scored twice in the first half and when we scored the goal, we had to manage those moments. There was high stress, it is different to any other ground. Individually you have to win the fights and step up to the occasion and the performance of every player today was top drawer." A tricky formation with four midfielders and two strikers, isn’t that a diamond Mikel? On paper it was a narrow loss for Villa last time out when they were beaten 4-3 at home by Southampton but two of their three goals came in stoppage time and just before the hour mark, they were trailing 4-0! This should be a regulation home win shouldn’t it? Arsenal won this fixture 3-2 last season but at the back end of last season in those sunny days of July it was Villa who took all three points when the teams met with a 1-0 victory in the West Midlands. Arsenal should win this game but the new look Gunners under Arteta are a functional side that struggles to get into any kind of rhythm or flow so laying over half a goal really does not appeal to me. Home team or pass.

Manchester City v Liverpool Manchester City – ½ and 3 ¼ goals The game of the weekend and definitely worthy of a full-page preview as I know we are very early in the season, but could this be the title decider? If Liverpool win this game, they will open up an eight point gap at the top of the table and you look around at the other title contenders who can realistically challenge Jurgen Klopp’s side? Chelsea, Spurs and Manchester United all look too inconsistent whilst for Arsenal and Leicester is it a year too early for them in their transition of players? This truly could be the game that decides the title if Liverpool take all three points.

Manchester City ground out a solid 1-0 win against Sheffield United last Saturday whilst Liverpool had a 2-1 come from behind win over West Ham. I sense both of those results almost sum up the type of season that many of the big European clubs will be forced to have this year. If you can do just enough then it is more than good enough. With fixtures coming at them left, right and centre I see many handbrakes being put on when teams get ahead in games against weaker opponents. Those big lines will become far trickier to overcome but in these types of game it is a far easier equation to work out! I have not met anyone who does not like Jurgen Klopp and I think he has become England’s favourite German. Last Saturday night in the aftermath of that nervous narrow win over West Ham he really summed everything up succinctly in my mind. Speaking after the game to the media he said “The world is in a difficult place and we are happy to be allowed to play football. So, we have to try everything to win football games. It's not about shining, or flying, or whatever, it's about hard work... that was absolutely necessary against this opponent.” It is that kind of humble message from a manager that at the very top of the game that we should all adhere to and be thankful for and I sense his side will be very relaxed going into this game and they will have an extra nights rest and recuperation following European action. In a campaign that is structured like this one I think even a 24- hour rest period advantage could prove to be vital. There have been two or more goals in nine of the last ten total meetings of the sides and at the back end of last season City ran riot when the teams played in early July. In Liverpool’s defence though for that game you must acknowledge that their motivation, no matter what Jurgen Klopp may say, was not there as they had already wrapped up the Premier League title. I am not going to try and dissuade anyone who wants to take the Over 3 ¼ goals bet in this game as I have continuing concerns over the state of both defences. On the match line I lean to Klopp’s men, but it is with no real conviction.

Last week we had two bets and by crikey they both cashed easily as we had Atletico Madrid outright and the Over 2 ¾ goals in the Torino and Lazio game. Diego Simeone’s men had the better of the play in their game at Osasuna but in true Atletico style they never really created huge amounts of opportunities in the game. It was a somewhat ground out 2-0 lead they earned thanks to a double strike from Jaoa Felix before a goal from Osasuna’s Ante Budimir gave them a little bit of a nervous time with ten minutes to go. Lucas Torreira netted a third for Simeone’s men in the 88th minute to seal all three points for Atletico and move them up to 3rd place in the table, with games in hand, as they improved their start to the season to 4-2-0. I was on my afternoon meander listening to the NFL pre-game build up and had the goal updates set for the Torino/Lazio game in Italy and it was merrily pinging away whilst I hit my 20,000 step target for the day. Three goals in the opening twenty-five minutes ensured we earned a half win with an equalising goal, to make it 2-2, four minutes after the half time break landed the bet fully. Incredibly the scoring wasn’t over as Torino took the lead before two goals in stoppage time for the away side gave Lazio all three points and 4-3 victory in a game that I saw none of it but the sheer excitement of nearly drained my phone battery completely!

I mentioned a couple of bets that I leaned towards but were not prepared to pull the trigger on and looking back they were good decisions. The Under 2 ¾ goals in Milan at Udinese saw a half loss as AC Milan managed to squeak out a 2-1 victory thanks to an 83rd minute winner from Zlatan Ibrahimovic. The final bet I talked of was the first game of the weekend where I suggested that Eibar – ¼ looked a half decent bet at home to Cadiz. We saw some incredible movements in the price of the game as by lunchtime on Friday the game was priced as per below:

Eibar 2.72 Draw 2.88 and Cadiz 3.55

I am not sure I have ever seen a game where the Draw was trending towards favouritism, well bar a Serie B game in April nudge nudge wink wink. The goal line was a ridiculously low 1.75 and I am disappointed that I did not take a piece of the Over as it is rare at this stage of the season for such a line to be a valid one and this game did not let us down. Well, it did if you sided with the home team as two goals in the last ten minutes of the first half from Alvaro Negrado and Salvi Sanchez gave Cadiz all three points.

I have to say that with the midweek League Two card taking precedence this week my time on this column has been limited so I have stuck with a couple of big leagues.

We go back to Mr Simeone and Atletico host the team we didn’t like the look of last week in the shape of Cadiz. The teams are locked level on points as both teams have fourteen points, although Simeone’s team do have two games in hand over the newly promoted side. Cadiz are not really a traditional newly promoted team as they have some serious money behind them but in this spot Atletico have been an absolute ATM as they have gone 13-2-0 over the last few seasons and have won each of their last six games in this spot to nil. Atletico are -1 for this game or a best priced 4/9 with the bookmakers to take the three points but as always when we look at them, is the win to nil a better option? That can be backed @ 19/20 so I just don’t think I can take this bet, at that price and against a side who have started the campaign 4-2-2. What is going in your favour if you chose to take that bet is the fact that Cadiz have netted only eight times in their opening eight games of the season. Conceding six times overall suggests that Cadiz are a defensively mean side and almost makes me think of siding with Under 2 goals. However, is Simeone mellowing in his old age as his team have scored thirteen times in their opening six games so I cannot even take the Under! No bet.

Juventus go into their game away in Rome against Lazio unbeaten in their opening five games of the new Serie A season. Despite that unbeaten start to the season it is almost a panic stations type feel about the Old Lady’s trip to Rome as they currently sit seven points behind current league leader’s AC Milan. It has been a rather slow start to Andrea Pirlo’s reign in charge of Juventus and their 2-3-0 record has seen them fail to beat Crotone, Roma and Verona whilst their only wins have come against Sampdoria and Spezia. The home team have opened the campaign 3-1-2 but each of the teams they did not beat were what I would call average/good teams in the shape of Atalanta, Inter Milan and Sampdoria. Juventus are priced as ½ goal favourites to take all three points from this game and at face value that looks incredible value as they are an overall 62-16-20 away from home over the past five and a bit seasons. They are though just 1-3-3 in their last seven away days and interestingly have kept just one clean sheet in their last sixteen Serie A away games. Those 108 away games for Juventus has seen the Under 3 ½ goals go 72-26 so with a goal line set at 3 goals even given those shorter term trends I lean to the Under but it is with no real conviction.

Selections None

Country Games % Home % Draw % Away % O1.5 % O2.5 % O 3.5 % Yes BTTS Austria 36 44 19 36 94 64 53 61 Belgium 94 44 22 34 81 64 38 64 Denmark 42 52 21 26 81 64 40 67 English Prem 68 35 19 46 78 57 35 54 Championship 120 37 28 35 67 35 14 43 England L1 124 48 18 35 74 40 23 48 England L2 128 41 29 30 71 47 23 49 Finland 132 40 25 35 78 53 35 52 France 88 45 23 32 78 53 32 51 Germany 54 35 31 33 87 52 41 67 Hungary 51 37 22 41 88 69 33 71 Italy 60 42 20 38 90 68 48 67 Netherlands 62 42 29 29 87 60 42 60 Norway 184 45 22 33 82 62 38 58 Poland 63 40 25 35 73 59 33 56 Portugal 54 37 30 33 70 44 24 48 Scotland SPL 71 38 18 44 65 48 23 38 Spain 73 38 26 36 70 38 21 42 Sweden 208 37 34 29 78 56 34 60 Switzerland 24 50 38 12 58 54 38 54 Turkey 67 40 30 30 70 42 25 52 USA 277 47 24 29 75 57 31 56

This was a column that I introduced a couple of seasons ago and last season we returned over 6% from our initial bank. The concept is quite simple really as we are looking to build a bank of funds slowly through sensible low risk bets. Just like my main investments in the stock market this column will focus on those ‘blue chip’ teams that offer the most reliability. Very rarely throughout the season will we invest in some kind of ‘Tech Start Up’ in the Finnish Second Division! Our funds will be entrusted with the likes of Barcelona, Bayern Munich, Juventus and Liverpool.

Our staking plan will be a conservative one as we commence the season with 100 points, and I will be delighted by the end of the season if we push forward by 10%. The maximum outlay each week will be 5 points, but I sense there will be few weeks where a maximum exposure is seen. Sounds boring doesn’t it? I suppose that is the point as investing in BP or Royal Dutch Shell is rarely a leap into the exciting unknown!

It was another disappointing showing from this column last week as we registered a win and a loss where we ended up with a -0.38 point performance for the weekend. Our winner was the backing of Tottenham Hotspurs Over 1 ½ Team Goals @ 8/13 for 1 point as Gareth Bale netted the Spurs winner in their home match with Brighton. Over in the NFL the wind wreaked havoc in Cleveland as the Raiders and Browns game saw just 22 points when we needed at least 43 to cash our bet. Even given the almost hurricane type conditions I still thought we did have a shot at landing the bet as both teams at times moved the ball well given the conditions they faced. The fact that neither team trusted their field goal kickers in the terrible conditions did hamper the scoring that was on offer and once again we were burned by the perils of betting four days in advance of the game!

Current Bank Balance 97.14 points Points Staked Today 4.00 points Maximum Closing Bank 97.69 points Minimum Closing Bank 93.14 points

We head to the Etihad Stadium for the big game of the weekend here in the UK as Manchester City host Liverpool in the big game of the Premier League weekend. There have been two or more goals in nine of the last ten meetings of the two sides and I sense with the defensive issues that both teams seem to be experiencing that both teams will find a way to hit the back of the net. With that in mind I am loving the Over 1 ½ goals bet in the game @ 3/20 and despite our recent lacklustre form I will take it for 2 points!

Did I talk about being conservative? Stuff it, let us go for broke and build this bank up quickly and for the second bet of the weekend I am more than happy to trust Mike Tomlin and Pittsburgh to take the win in Big D against the Cowboys. The Steelers are a -14 favourite for this game and if they had been making the journey to the Lone Star state at 6-1 then I would not trust them with a barge pole. However, they go to Texas at 7-0 and there is no way that they will be wanting to let Dallas, who are on their third string quarterback Ben DiNucci to inflict on them their first loss of the season.

Selections Back Over 1 ½ goals in Manchester City v Liverpool @ 3/20 for 2 points Back Pittsburgh Steelers @ 1/8 for 2 points

Disclaimer: What you need to understand when you read this upcoming article that it has been written on a HP laptop at my work desk from a two bedroom flat in the beautiful cathedral city of Lincoln. My view is back out over my communal gardens towards Lincoln Cathedral and with a bit of luck we will get some lightning to take down a tree to give me an unobstructed view of the majestic old building. The picture above was taken from my little balcony that is more like a fire escape without steps rather than anything flash. It is a beautiful scene but I suppose what I am trying to get across is the fact that I am not writing these thoughts aboard my superyacht docked at St Tropez (pictured left in better times) as myself and three blonde models in their early 20s bunker down semi-naked together as we bid to survive the current global pandemic. Take my advice and thoughts on board but also use your own common sense as to how and when to apply them. I am not a millionaire and do not have all of the answers, but I may have some of them that you are missing to take your betting to the next level.

“Run a multi pound betting empire!”

That is the start of my Twitter bio for my @ukbettingpro account and some people when they read that as an introduction to myself must think “what a twit” or maybe even something even worse

I quote this though at the start of this column as I passionately believe I only really started to turn my betting fortunes around when I started treating my wagering as a business. I am not here to tell you what to do and how to structure your betting bank, merely try and pass on some tips that I use that I have found useful which have helped me improve my performance.

In my opinion there are three types of bettors that help fuel the liquidity in the market and also drive the shape of those markets in terms of the types of bets offered. Each of them has their own unique characteristics and all contribute to making the market prices that we see:

Recreational Bettor –This type of bettor more than likely does little, or no research, before placing a bet and when they make their bets they are mainly on favourites. They love Accumulators/Parlays and when they bet on goals/points markets they bet for positive outcomes, ie Over on goals/points lines and Yes on Both Teams To Score as opposed to taking the often better valued No. For the most part the Recreational Bettor expects to lose and has a certain amount of money to play with each weekend. This category of bettor does not have any kind of money management theory applied to their betting and if they do win big, they will more than likely use it for a holiday or to pay for another big ticket item. Over the long-term bookmakers make the most money out of this type of punter.

The Inbetweeners – Despite what many people think I feel that this, as opposed to the Recreational Bettor, is the most common bettor there is. Most people don’t set aside ‘money to lose’ when they are going about their weekly betting. They have theories and have done some research about many of the games that they are betting in. These punters take advantage of the many offers that bookmakers present as they want to adopt a more professional approach but still, some more than others, get drawn in to ‘gamble’ on games especially if they have fallen behind on the day. This class of punter is so close to turning their betting into at least a minimal loss hobby, but they just lack that discipline.

Semi to Full Professional – This is what we all aspire to and the category in which I hope I fall into. We treat every bet we make like a business decision whether it be a £5 bet or a £5k bet. The philosophy is the same no matter what the value of wager is as there are no throwaway bets where we are concerned. Our risk appetite will change depending on the market and the teams involved and careful consideration will be taken over all aspects of the bet. Single bets are the mainstay of this category of punter with the occasional accumulator/parlay made but only when there is significant value seen.

Now I am not passing judgement on any of the three categories or stating that you should look to adopt a professional approach as opposed to either of the other two categories. You have to be comfortable with how you bet and if you are never even wanting to become a semi to full professional bettor then the idea of betting should be to maximise your fun within your wagering tolerance. Ironically, I think it is the Recreational Bettor who has by far the most fun! I once did a comparison with one of my pals who is the absolute definition of a Recreational Bettor and over the weekend, I made a whopping £5.31 profit whilst he made a £2.30 loss. He had so much fun though watching his bets, he was cheering for things to happen, whilst although I made money and he lost money I had virtually no fun taking in the games that I had bet on. Despite my profit for the weekend it would almost have been better for me to have made that small loss and felt like I had a fruitful weekend in terms of enjoyment. I suppose what I am trying to say is that there is nothing wrong with being any of the three categories as long as you are happy within yourself and stay in control of what you are betting.

Bankroll Thoughts and Money Management Techniques This is the trickiest subject and one that really should be left to personal preference depending on how comfortable you are with risk. I will outline my thoughts though as to how I approach this hardest of all concepts for the bettor to fully grasp. I have my own ‘Betting Bank’ but it is not simply money sat in all of my betting accounts awaiting to use. It is basically a made-up number of the total amount of money I am happy to have set aside for betting. If we use a theoretical amount of £1,000 as an example that betting bank does not mean I have £1,000 in betting accounts, it is merely the bank with which I calculate the level of my bets. It is almost an imaginary bank. For example, I have a maximum 2% of my total betting bank that I use for any bets and I am happy for EPL and NFL bets to make a full bet. I rarely bet any amount over 1% of my bank and the level of my bank is in many ways of function of my appetite for risk. By my calculations if you are happy to bet £20 a game then a starting bank of £2,000 can be used. My recent success in the Belarus Premier League has sadly not pushed up my bank as much as it could have done as I did not trust the strength of the selections. I have no regrets with starting my bets at just 0.5% before gradually moving up to a maximum of 1.25% of my bank. If I had lost a 2% bet in that league, I would have kicked myself. My theory is that this is not poker and it’s not the man with the biggest bank that wins through bullying opponents through brute force. This is purely a game of skill and over time if you are good enough then you will be able to increase your bank on a consistent basis via professional approach even if the level of your bankroll does not make you think are succeeding.

What is a successful business? How do you define one? In betting terms, I sense it is by growing your bank consistently and responsibly using stringent methodologies and staking plans. Using a flat £1,000 betting balance as an example if you can grow the bank by 10% over the course of a year you see the below performance:

Year Year Profit Total Profit Balance

1 £100.00 £100.00 £1,100.00 2 £110.00 £210.00 £1,210.00 3 £121.00 £331.00 £1,331.00 4 £133.10 £464.10 £1,464.10 5 £146.41 £610.51 £1,610.51 6 £161.05 £771.56 £1,771.56 7 £177.16 £948.72 £1,948.72 8 £194.87 £1,143.59 £2,143.59 9 £214.36 £1,357.95 £2,357.95 10 £235.79 £1,593.74 £2,593.74

If you can step that performance level up to 25% the leaps and bounds you can make are enormous:

Year Year Profit Total Profit Balance

1 £250.00 £250.00 £1,250.00 2 £312.50 £562.50 £1,562.50 3 £390.63 £953.13 £1,953.13 4 £488.28 £1,441.41 £2,441.41 5 £610.35 £2,051.76 £3,051.76 6 £762.94 £2,814.70 £3,814.70 7 £953.67 £3,768.37 £4,768.37 8 £1,192.09 £4,960.46 £5,960.46 9 £1,490.12 £6,450.58 £7,450.58 10 £1,862.65 £8,313.23 £9,313.23

If a company grew its value by 25% in one year, we would talk about it being a huge success so why is it so difficult for us to treat our betting in such a business-like manner? I know each of the below named companies faced its own unique challenges over the past year but during this coronavirus crisis they are acknowledged as companies who have adapted and benefitted by the world’s events. Their value as companies have grown by the amounts:

Amazon + 26% Apple + 61% Google + 15% Tesco + 0.5%

Over the past year I have outperformed Amazon, Google and Tesco in terms of my performance levels. Until writing this column I had not realised that, and I sense it is quite important that we gauge ourselves and our own performance against what we would define as world leading companies who are held up as high performers.

Do not be too harsh on yourself, work hard and you can make profits consistently or at least minimise your losses to a level where betting can be a fun but inexpensive hobby. Over the next two pages I detail my Seven Top Tips for improving your betting performance.

My Seven Hints and Best Practice

Line ‘Em up! The first thing I do every morning is line up all the bets that I am interested in making. Some of these will be firmed up selections that I am ready to immediately place and some of these I may not be fully sure of and could depend on team news etc. What the placing of bets on a day should under no circumstances be dependent on is the outcome of your other bets. The way I look at things betting is not like being a cricket batsman as I do not believe in runs of good form. The list that I write in the morning is not one that suddenly has bets added to it because I suddenly feel in good form or I have lost a few bets and want to start chasing losses. That is just bad business practice.

Rolling Limits Have a set % of your bank or monetary value that you are happy to have in play on any one day. I tend to work between the 7-10% depending on the day of the week and the amount of opportunities I spot in the market. These are not financial stocks as betting is often a zero-sum game so on a bad day your entire investment can be wiped out. It would be a very bad day if you had 10% of your betting bank wiped out through a spell of zero winners but it is possible. To be able to deal with the possible psychological impact of such a day have a % limit in mind. If you like a lot of bets at a particular time then you should consider either weighting them according to your strength of feeling or just write down the % you are betting equally on all of the bets you want to make.

Take Free Money It is everywhere you look (well in quite a few places anyway!). I am restricted at Skybet and not eligible for any of their ‘Free Bet’ offers etc but it does not stop me making money from them. Last Saturday the Bundesliga was back and as usual Skybet were offering their Soccer Saturday Price Boost and every week it gives us the opportunity to make literally free money. Last week the selections were Dortmund, Leipzig and Wolfsburg all to win @ 9/2 for a maximum of £10 and £45 profit. With Betfair offering the opportunity for you to lay the Acca on the exchange (as long as it is less in this instance than 5.5) you have one of two options which I then undertake on a weekly basis.

If you like the bet to actually win (as some weeks I do) you just lay the £10 + the commission cost (I pay 2% so on £10 it is 20p) for a total lay of £10.20 so you earn all of the profit on Skybet if the treble comes in. Last week I did not like the bet so at the available market price of 4.8 to lay I laid £11.84 for liability of £44.99 and when the treble did not come in I made £11.84 minus commission of 24p to make my profit of £1.60 after I deduct the £10 Skybet loss.

Some of my mates laugh at me for doing this as it seems a bit of hassle just to make £1.60 but I try and think of it in other ways. Even if you only get it right fifteen times a season (which is a tad conservative I think) that is still, based on last Saturday’s pricing, about £24 profit. It may not sound a lot but let us use a starting imaginary betting bank of £1,000 and that is a 2.4% bank increase for ZERO risk to your bank.

Know Where You Excel Keep a log of bets so you can pinpoint where your strengths are in terms of the sports and the markets within those spots where you seem to do well. I learned whilst living in Las Vegas that I really excel in betting NFL games where the home team are between – ½ and -5 ½ point favourites and I have about a 25% edge on those bets than other bets. Everybody has specific skillsets in terms of picking out winners, if you have no knowledge of what yours is how can you maximise your betting talent? I say talent as we all have a knack for picking winners but if we don’t use it in the right sphere often enough it can shift us from being a profitable punter to one that makes consistent losses.

Bet Using House Money

This is kind of linked in with my Line ‘Em’ Up strategy as if you plan well enough ahead of your bets you can often get much of your stake paid for in free bets. You often see at a weekend your bookmaker offering ‘Bet £10 on the game between x team and y team and get a free £5 bet for tomorrow’s football’. Well if you know that you want to bet a game the following day why would you not just collect that free bet to use the next day? You can probably earn that free £5 bet for a maximum of 60p by making a bet in the x versus y game and then laying off the bet on the Exchanges. Suddenly £5 of that risk you were wanting to take on a game is only costing you 60p! If you need further explanation on this philosophy, then please do not hesitate to contact me and I will run through it with you.

Losing is OK I moved to Las Vegas in 2013 for six months to take part in the Las Vegas Supercontest which is called the greatest gambling competition in the world. It is a ‘buy in’ tournament organised by the Westgate that costs $1,500 to enter and each week your aim is to pick NFL games against the spread. The key learning point that I took from the whole process is that it is ok to pick losers. When you say that out loud it would at first thought seem quite a ridiculous statement to make but the acceptance of that simple fact that you will make losing bets will greatly help you moving forward. NFL spread bets by their very nature have a coin toss probability and any record of 55% or better is a truly incredible performance. This is where risk management and obtaining what you perceive to be value becomes crucial and if you do that for every bet but accept you will lose some, as long as overall you win more, then in the long run you will be just fine. Losing is OK, losing too often is not!

Be The Only Person Cheering In The Sportsbook I would suggest that this is the biggest takeaway I have found as those big casino and bookmaking brands have not been built on thin air as it takes money, a lot of money, and that has come from punters pockets. If you can imagine yourself watching a game in the sportsbook, bookmakers or pub and trying to get on the opposite side of what the regulars in there are going to be betting then you are probably on the right path. You may go through poor short term runs but long term I sense you will do ok! I have really been harsh on myself in the past couple of years from a discipline perspective and I have now only had two losing months in the past twenty-one.

I sense the very first thing we have to do before we start diving deep into the First Round games is try and gain some understanding of what this competition is for the majority of EFL teams this season. For teams in desperate financial situations it could act as a lifeline bringing in much needed revenue through the prize money system which divvies up funds as per below:

First Round Proper (40) £16,972 Losers receive £5,657 Second Round Proper (20) £25,500 Losers receive £8500 Third Round Proper winners (32) £82,000 Fourth Round Proper winners (16) £90,000 Fifth Round Proper winners (8) £180,000 Quarter-Final winners (4) £360,000 Semi-Final winners (2) £900,000 Semi-Final losers (2) £450,000 Final runners-up (1) £900,000 Final winners (1) £1,800,000

Amounts are per club in each round. Numbers in brackets represent the number of winning clubs per round.

A lower tiered team who make it through to the Third Round are guaranteed to make £42,472 and in these current times that money cannot be sniffed at by the majority of League One and League Two teams. There will be immense pressure on the managers of these clubs not to fiddle too much with their starting line-up and to play their strongest first eleven this weekend. On the flip side of this though is the startling realisation that there will be no bumper Third Round paydays with glamour trips to Anfield or Old Trafford that will provide bumper pay days through gate receipts. I remember the other year when my Lincoln City travelled to Everton, my Imps (picture taken below by me on a seat about 13 inches wide!) made over half a million pounds from that trip and it was a great day out for us fans which set the club up for its next stage of progression. As the COVID-19 crisis continues to stop fans from going to games I see a number of the more wealthy clubs in the lower tiers almost waving the white flag to this competition whereas smaller clubs may fight tooth and nail to progress.

So, where will the SHOCK SIREN BE TRIGGERED THIS WEEKEND!

Harrogate Town v Skelmersdale United A few years ago, you would not even think that this game would be seen as a David v Goliath type encounter but the rise of Harrogate Town through the football pyramid has been a truly remarkable achievement. The visitors make this trip for a ‘War of the Roses’ battle representing the North West Counties League Premier Division from Level 9 (Step 5) of the English football pyramid. Routine home win.

Ipswich Town v Portsmouth Will either of these teams throw the game? Of course they won’t be in terms of how these two sides will approach this game I sense that both will feel it a relief if they get knocked out of the competition so they can concentrate on regaining their Championship status at the end of this season. Obviously, we would want full sight of the team sheets for the game before we could even consider making a wager in this game. I have strong thoughts here in terms of who I think are the better squad of players and the better run club but just because Ipswich are a bit of a shambles it does not mean that they should be opposed almost blindly. No shock.

Lincoln City v Forest Green Rovers This will be the most aesthetically pleasing game this weekend so if you are thinking of buying a game to watch this weekend then choose this one. Both teams like to get the ball down, play out from the back and play an open and expressive style of football that is a real joy to watch. That means, all being equal, that Lincoln should be able to find a way to brush their visitors aside and progress into the Second Round of the competition. It may be a bit of a nuisance for the Imps to keep winning in terms of placing pressure on their squad but I think Forest Green, with a multi-millionaire owner behind them, may take this game less seriously than their higher tiered rivals. The Imps do have a lot of injuries though and @ 5/1 Forest Green do look capable of pulling off a surprise.

Port Vale v King’s Lynn Town Nailed-on home win you might think! Maybe but the visitors make this journey to complete an incredible journey back from extinction as in 2009 King’s Lynn FC were wound up over £77k of debts before this phoenix from the flames club was created. King’s Lynn sit 16th in the National League and have a 2-1-4 record but this is a flagship game in their history. Port Vale may look past this game or switch their side too much. SHOCK SIREN SOUNDED

Sunderland v Mansfield Town Another game here where I see the home side as being vulnerable to a shock given their respective starts to the season. Sunderland don’t need the money and the Stags have a solid squad of players whilst the home team have bigger fish to fry so the Stags’ 0-7-4 record could let them fly under the radar for this game. I sense Mansfield really trying in this game so backing them +1 may be a better option than taking them @ 8/1

FC United of Manchester v Doncaster Rovers Doncaster may end up overlooking their opponents here as they expect to be in the mix for promotion to the Championship come the end of their League One season. I would want to see what the weather is going to be this Saturday evening for a game that is set to be live on BBC Two in England. Will the game being on TV focus the away team or just help lift the home club? If, and only if, it rains then sound the alarm

Eastleigh v MK Dons I am not sure there can be a bigger shift this weekend for players in terms of their surroundings than what the Dons players face as they make the journey to Ten Acres. This game is live on BBC iPlayer and having seen the Dons this season I am not convinced they will keep a clean sheet in this game so am more than happy to side with the home team to get at least a draw. However, the 7/2 on them is not good enough value for me to take it!

Hampton & Richmond v Oldham Athletic Would this even be a shock if the dysfunctional Latics are knocked out here? It is why BT Sport Extra 2 are covering the game and it is why the bookmakers only have the home team at 7/2 despite sitting two tiers beneath Harry Kewell’s men. In my book this game should be more evenly priced so…. SHOCK SIREN SOUNDED

Torquay United v Crawley Town Plainmoor is a lovely little ground and that Crawley away record under John Yems is an appalling 1-7-6 so at just a shade over Even Money there is no way I can take the away side to get the job done in this spot. With Torquay sitting top of the National League having started the season 6-0-1 overall and 3-0-0 on home soil I am a bit surprised that the bookmakers have favoured Crawley so much. I am sounding it but will it even be one? SHOCK SIREN SOUNDED

Wigan Athletic v Chorley This is a local derby of sorts as there are just ten miles separating the two clubs geographically. It is a shame that there will be no fans in attendance this weekend as I sense this game would have a cracking atmosphere. Wigan have had a bad start to the season as they are just 2-1-8 overall but Chorley sit right down near the bottom of the National League North. Surely Wigan win and surely, they win by at least two clear goals.

We had a right Geoff Hurst last week as we went 3-0 with our League Two bets in what was a fantastic showing from our selected teams of Exeter, Port Vale and Salford.

Starting in the early game down at St James Park in Devon where Exeter welcomed in Carlisle and were priced at an incredibly attractive level of 2.62 on Betfair on Saturday morning. I watched a lot of the game and Exeter were worthy winners of the game as they took all three points thanks to a goal from Tom Parkes against his old club. We thought it was going to be a bridge too far for Carlisle to make that long journey in these strange times and take all three points and we were right. Whether you took them on the advised – ¼ goal line or on the cheeky outright you will have cashed well.

James Wilson scored for the fifth home game in a row as Salford ground out victory over local rivals Oldham at The Peninsula Stadium in a match where Harry Kewell retook his spot in the Oldham dugout. It was sweet revenge for Scholes against the club who he has supported since boyhood but who he managed last year in a ridiculous seven game period. Oldham had more of the ball than the hosts and they certainly looked as though they could cause Salford some issues, but they only got one of their nine shots on target. Big Tom Pope bagged a brace at Southend last Saturday which marked his 150th goal of his career as Port Vale won their third game in a week to move to the verge of the automatic places thanks to a 2-0 win against Southend.

Newport looked a solid play @ 17/11 at home to Harrogate but we decided to keep away which I am now kicking myself for, as Mike Flynn’s men stayed top of the table thanks to a 2-1 victory. The Welsh side were already leading when Josh Falkingham was sent off for his second bookable offence and at that point you would expect a well organised side like Newport would see the game out without any issues. It wasn’t the case though and Flynn, speaking after the game elaborated further on the game. "We gave a poor goal away - the first set-piece we've conceded this season so doubly disappointed - they had 10 men but they worked their socks off, you've got to give them a lot of credit. There was only one team looking to win it in the second half, but they had a chance and it could have cost us. We've won the game and I'm delighted, we played some very good stuff, but also slow at times, a little bit sloppy at times because we were looking for the killer pass. But the subs have come on and changed things." They are such a difficult side to overcome on home soil and although their style of play has become a little more fluid

over the last eighteen months or so I sense Flynn will not hesitate to flick the switch to a more resilient style should the weather turn! Cheltenham looked a decent play as well at home in El Glossico against Forest Green and I was left kicking myself for not trusting my pricing instincts when I looked at the game. With Michael Duff’s men hovering around the 6/4 mark for the game I was so tempted to take them but I bottled it, just like the Newport game, and I was left ruing my lack of spine as a goal in each half gave Cheltenham all three points in a 2-1 win.

Now just before I get carried away with myself for going 5-0 (although it can only be classed as 3-0) in League Two we must talk about Bolton, LOL. Going into last Saturday’s game in East London against Orient I had the temerity to suggest that Bolton could have been the trend bet of the decade…..can someone pass me some humble pie please? My rationale was clear though as Orient were just 5-7-20 at home to top half finishing sides and last season they went just 1-2-4 in this spot so was I being that silly to suggest Bolton are a top twelve side? Now it is sometimes funny how you analyse and assess performances because last Saturday night I read the report on the BBC website which began with “Leyton Orient handed Bolton a drubbing at Brisbane Road…….” You read the report and it goes through the game and speak of chances for both teams including Billy Crellin (left) saving another penalty for Bolton (he is certainly ‘manning up’). A lot of people would read the words and then move on to the next match report but if you scrolled down further you would see the statistics of the game and here is where you get the real detail. Bolton had more of the ball 56%-44% and outshot their hosts 17-8 but it was the O’s who had more on target as they registered six accurate shots compared to Bolton’s zero attempts on target. Bolton had more corners, 9-4, and all those stats to me suggest that Bolton should be doing far better than they are doing and that perhaps they are for want of a better word choking under Ian Evatt. The former Barrow boss is clearly feeling the pressure and it was rumoured this week that he had been trying to leverage his contacts at his old club to get prior sight of their team before Bolton made the trip to Holker Street a fortnight ago.

Talking of Barrow and they beat Bradford 1-0 whilst league leaders Cambridge slumped to a 2-1 defeat at Crawley. It was a quick double for Barrow who registered back to back victories thanks to a goal from Connor Brown and Bradford fans won’t like to hear what I have to say but this Bantams side are not very good at all. John Yems’ Crawley team moved into the Play Off spots by the end of Saturday night despite finishing the game with ten men following the late sending off of midfielder Jake Hesketh (pictured right when on loan at Lincoln). I won’t lie as Hesketh’s arrival at Crawley had gone unnoticed by myself so in some ways I am pleased he received his marching orders as when he is back available he will do very well for Mr Yems. It was a very even game as despite Cambridge having almost double the amount of shots, they registered less on target than their hosts and the possession was split equally. I won’t be downgrading Cambridge in my thoughts because of the loss as the Sussex based club are a decent team so losing to them on their travels is no disgrace.

Managerless Mansfield's worst start to a season in 106 years continued as they were held at home by Walsall. With Graham Coughlan sacked in midweek and academy boss Richard Cooper in temporary charge, the Stags are now without a win in 13 games in all competitions. I am sure that the Radford’s are working hard behind the scenes to try and get a new man in place ASAP but even at this stage of the season a thirteen point gap (as of last Saturday night) to the Play Off spots is a huge differential to bridge. Nicky Maynard scored for the Stags and you must wonder how his contract situation in the summer has played into their slow start. He is a star performer at this level but due to the pandemic he was slow to sign a deal, possibly as he was hoping for a better offer, so he was used sparingly by Coughlan in the early weeks of the season. Last Saturday was the experienced forward’s first full ninety minutes of the season and low and behold he bagged a goal! Hopefully, Nigel Clough will breathe more life into the Stags when he takes over in the next few days.

Stevenage and Grimsby played out a goalless draw as the Hertfordshire based club failed to score for the sixth straight game and I am not sure what more I can say about their forward line. They had nineteen shots at goal, six on target and yet couldn’t find a way past Mariners keeper James McKeown. Even though he plays for Grimsby I was delighted that McKeown kept a clean sheet as his error last Saturday at home to Carlisle was widely ridiculed by the footballing world but he has been a very solid League Two keeper for a number of years. The final game to be played last weekend saw Morecambe retain their top half status thanks to a 1-0 win away to Tranmere at Prenton Park. That win left Tranmere languishing down in 18th spot in the table and I have to say I was shocked to hear shortly after the final whistle that Michael Jackson had been sacked by them. "I have regrettably come to the conclusion that it is right for the club to make a change of manager," said chairman Mark Palios (pictured right unleashing)."This is a season which could still yet be shortened due to COVID so we do not have the luxury of time to turn things around." Tranmere were relegated from League One last season on points per game after the campaign was ended early because of coronavirus. Jackson's only league victories in charge of the club came against bottom two Southend and Scunthorpe but I sense Palios is hiding behind COVID as an excuse to make this decision. There has been no indication that professional games would be postponed due to the ongoing health crisis and I sense this is a bit of a cop out from the Tranmere chairman.

I won’t go into too much detail about the midweek games but we will bask in some glory of our winner in the Colchester and Stevenage game as the home side won 3-1 as I thought they would, but first the results:

Oldham Athletic 2-1 Cheltenham Town Morecambe 2-2 Exeter City Bolton Wanderers 1-1 Mansfield Town Bradford City 3-0 Southend United Cambridge United 2-1 Salford City Carlisle United 3-2 Newport County Colchester United 3-1 Stevenage Forest Green Rovers 2-1 Leyton Orient Grimsby Town 1-0 Barrow Harrogate 0-1 Tranmere Rovers Walsall 1-0 Crawley Town

So, what happened at Colchester? The real answer bar the fact that Steve Ball’s men won is that I don’t know. There was clear money coming against #ColU from either people who thought they had information or a big punter or a big group of punters who wanted to oppose them. I have no idea why, but I knew this was the case when I saw on Monday afternoon that 2.2 was available to back and 2.24 was available to lay on the Betfair Exchange. As all good bettors should do at that point when you are over twenty four hours away from kick off I put in a back for 2.22 as there was no rush to get the bet matched and I wanted to test the waters. At first glance I thought I had put my initial stake of £20 in incorrectly as it did not appear in the pink lay side of the betting panel. I had to do a double take to see that the bet had been automatically matched despite there not being any liquidity showing in the market at the price I inputted. That is a tell-tale sign that there is money wanting to get down in a game. Whilst I was recording the podcast, that I hoped you all listened to and cashed in, I did a live test of putting another £2 on to Colchester and once again it gobbled up straight away. Over time the home side drifted out further in the market and one subscriber emailed to advise that at kick off Colchester went off at a price of 2.62 to take all three points. I scoured the news flow for any signs of COVID related issues but there was nothing publicised to say the home side were affected by unavailability. Star striker Luke Norris was not available for the game, but that fact should not have altered the price of the home side by more than 0.10 and there were minimal changes to the home line up. As it happened I sense it was just an incorrect bet, or bets, by some big players in this market (there are a couple who lay big bets in this league) who we just happened to be on the other side of. Jevani Brown scored a superb hat-trick for the home side as they dominated the game where Stevenage only managed to score from the penalty spot, well actually they didn’t as they had to net the rebound after it was saved!

Initially produced the week before the season, how am I doing? Once again I will have a little poke at advising of the ‘thirds’ as it was well received last season and I have to say I did use it in the early weeks of the season just to check against bookmaker prices. For example, if I saw a team who I had initially placed in the middle third host a team in the bottom third and the sides were equally priced or better in the higher placed team’s favour I really investigated further. Without further ado here are my thoughts for this upcoming season:

TOP Bolton, Cheltenham, Exeter, Forest Green, Mansfield, Port Vale, Salford, Tranmere MIDDLE Barrow, Bradford, Carlisle, Colchester, Crawley, Grimsby, Scunthorpe, Walsall BOTTOM Cambridge, Harrogate, Leyton Orient, Morecambe, Newport, Oldham, Southend, Stevenage

Well by now you know full well that Cheltenham are the side that really interests me in terms of winning the league and although they are not a glamourous side I think they are well built for what is sure to be a tough season. I have spent the early part of this past week trawling through the bookmaker’s sites to see if I can find any other bets that may be of interest to punters looking for some value.

Top Goalscorer Eoin Doyle has been installed as the best priced 7/1 market leader but as I have already said I am not convinced whether Doyle will be as successful as he was last season during his loan spell at Swindon. Even if he does perform at a high level then I am sure that boss Ian Evatt will treat him with kid gloves and this shortened season we may see him substituted more often than in a usual year to protect him later on in games. With that in mind I cannot take any player at such a skinny price to be top scorer so with bookmakers paying quarter odds on the top four I have three players in mind that offer some good each way opportunity. Nicky Maynard at Mansfield is 14/1, James Vaughan of Tranmere is priced at 14/1 whilst Beryly Lubala was 20/1 to top the scoring charts and it is Crawley’s Congolese hit man that interested me until he cleared off to Blackpool this past Tuesday! Maynard and Vaughan are safer options if you want to concentrate on the Win aspect of your bet but for the Each-Way element then Scott Quigley of Barrow @ 50/1 or Matt Green @ 100/1 at Grimsby could offer a little bit of value for small stakes. Paul Mullin of Cambridge leads the way with 12 goal, 6 goals clear, with my selections nowhere to be seen!

Top Seven Finish Cheltenham are a best priced 6/4 in this market so I suppose I need to try and cover my Each Way stake on them to win the league with the relevant amount as I don’t see them not finishing in at least a Play Off spot. However, from a risk/reward perspective I think the 9/4 that you can grab with SkyBet on Port Vale to finish in the Top Seven is an incredible bet. They are a very well-run club, have an excellent manager and have a range of attacking personnel that allows them to play in several different ways depending on the situation they face. They are as short as 5/4 with other bookmakers so unless SkyBet know something we don’t, or they are taking a big risk on this bet that I would take on for medium level stakes. Cheltenham 6th and Port Vale 7th.

To Finish In The Top Half Can I have two attempts here? I do think that both Carlisle and Crawley will progress from last season and I have them in my ‘Middle’ selection for the season. However, with the sides priced @ 13/8 and 5/2 with William Hill respectively to finish in the top half I only need one of the two to come off to make +60% profit (to level stakes). As I see neither of these sides being able to force their way into Play Off contention then I would suggest that these bets, should you wish to make them, should be for lower stakes than those of the other bets. Carlisle 5th and Crawley 8th.

Relegation The very fact that there are so many poor teams in this league means that there should be some good value if we can pick out one of the teams that will slide through the trapdoor into the National League. Of the teams I have slated to finish in the ‘Bottom Third’ it would appear that Southend are the best priced team @ 7/1 for the drop and in all honesty, I cannot argue with siding with that bet. They are a club in freefall who could be liable for points deductions if their financial issues persist and I have serious concerns about their management team. Only small stakes should be wagered on this bet and @ 1.53 with William Hill for a bottom half finish they almost seem nailed on to me! Southend rock bottom in 24th spot and after eleven games they are five points clear of safety.

Over the past five seasons that this has been running this column has become one of my most popular. As it says on the tin we look for a rush of goals and look to pinpoint games that have a better than projected chance of seeing three or more goals. Each game on the European card is ran through an algorithm I have created that throws out a projected goal value for the match. This is a purely statistical model which gives rise to the usual issues we see with mathematical projections, i.e. this is a game that cannot simply be measured by statistics. From the games the algorithm highlights I then conduct further detailed research into each match. This is to see if the backdrop behind the bare statistics still suggest the game is likely to see three or more goals.

The rules of this game are quite simple. We only bet at a price of 1.70 or greater as let’s be honest any old fool can back three or more goals in Barcelona versus Rayo Vallecano, apologies if I put that bet forward on the Bank Builder later this season ;-) We also like to bet in markets with tight pricing which draws us to the bigger leagues in Europe. That though is often a balance as we have historically had our best results in the less researched markets such as Norway and Poland. Therefore, there is always a trade off in those markets between slightly less tighter prices but perhaps some under the radar value.

Last weekend we had two bets and they both landed as there were five goals in the Danish Superliga game between Nordsjaelland and FC Midtylland with three goals coming in the Belgian Jupiler League game between Charleroi and Cercle Brugge. In Denmark Nordskaelland took all three points from the game when they shocked their high flying visitors by giving them a bit of a spanking in a game that finished 4-1 as the Over 2 ½ goal bet cashed on the stroke of half time. In Belgium it was left entirely to the home team to cover the line for us as Sporting Charleroi brushed aside Brugge 3-0 with Saido Berahino getting on the scoresheet for Charleroi. Do you all remember Berahino? He of Stoke and West Brom infamy who nearly once joined Tottenham Hotspur for £20 million. Berahino (pictured left) is an example of a young man getting far too much early in life and I was shocked to see that he is still only 27 years of age so maybe his signing for Charleroi, on loan from Zulte Waregm, could re-start his career.

Season Long Records 9-0 Over ½ goal 9-0 Over 1 ½ goals 6-3 Over 2 ½ goals 4-5 Over 3 ½ goals 6-3 Both Teams To Score 1.66 Points profit on 9 bets 11.84% Return On Investment (ROI)

FC Midtylland v FC Kobenhavn, in Danish Superliga, Sunday 5pm Kick Off UK Time We are heading back to the well this weekend as we travel back to Denmark for a game that looks primed to see at least three goals when Superliga league giants Midtylland host Kobenhavn in a fixture that has always seen a lot of goals in recent seasons. Over 2 ½ goals is on a 15-4 run over the last few seasons when the sides have met with games on this ground going 8-2 to the Over when the sides face off against each other. The teams met twice on this ground last season and they both ended in home wins with Midtylland gaining 3-1 and 4-1 victories. The Yes on Both Teams To Score and Over 2 ½ goals is on a 6-1 run this season in Kobenhavn games with each of Midtylland’s last four games in Superliga action registering a Yes on BTTS and an Over 2 ½ goals ticket landing. I am not often a fan of going straight back in on a team where we have recently had success but I do think that the 4/5 here on there to be at least three goals does offer some decent value for us punters.

Selection Back Over 2 ½ goals in FC Midtylland v FC Kobenhavn

Baltimore Ravens @ Indianapolis Colts Ravens -2 ½ and 47 points One of the bitterest rivalries in sport takes place here in Indianapolis but with minimal fans in attendance for this game I am not sure the hostility will transcend onto the field of play. For those of you who don’t know the backstory let me fill you in a little. Thirty-six years ago on a fateful snowy night in March of 1984, a Mayflower moving van was photographed pulling away from the Baltimore Colts training facility in Owings Mills. The van was transporting the Colts NFL franchise to Indianapolis and leaving Baltimore without a professional football team. The Colts departure came eight years after owner Robert Irsay began flirting with other cities. He wanted a new stadium. Irsay watched Baltimore, Phoenix and Indianapolis try to outbid each other for the pleasure of his team’s company. In the end, he left for a new sports palace in Indianapolis. How will the Ravens bounce back after their loss last week at home to the Steelers? Baltimore lost 28-24 as Big Ben and co marched into the Ravens house and marched out again with the W. How would the Colts look coming out of their Bye Week was the question on many punters’ lips ahead of their trip to Detroit last weekend. Well, the answer was damn good as they racked up 41 points against a Lions defense that rolled over and had their tummies tickled by Philip Rivers and all of his children! This point line opened sunk from its opening point of 46 ½ to as low as 45 ½ before ticking back up to 47 points. I worry about this Colts offense being able to move the ball against a good defense? In my mind they have played just one good defense this season and they were the Bears who they only managed to score 19 points against. A lean to the Ravens here as I just trust them more to score 20+ points in a game as that is just what they do, every week!

New York Giants @ Washington Football Team Washington -2 ½ and 42 points What an ugly game this looks to be! Not as an ugly of a game though that we have seen in the Nation’s Capital this week in the big slugfest between Joe Biden and Donald Trump! The Football Team had their Bye Week last weekend so they will come into this game well rested for what you would normally call a tough Divisional Game where no inch will be given. However, the teams’ combined 3- 12 record shows exactly where these two teams currently lie in the NFL hierarchy but incredibly at 2-5 the home side will think if they can get the win here then they have half a chance of getting into the mix for the NFC East title. The Giants lost 25-23 on Monday Night Football at home to Tom Brady and the Buccaneers as they put in a valiant performance in defeat against many people’s tips for the Super Bowl. This line opened Washington -3 ½ and it has been no surprise that money has come for the Giants to take the line back to under a field goal. Receiving 3 or 3 ½ I would have no hesitation to side with the G-Men but just the 2 ½ makes me pause a little. I think they are the better team though so if someone forced me to make a wager on this game then it would be the G-Men I’d side with.

Chicago Bears @ Tennessee Titans Titans -6 and 46 ½ points Both teams try and impose their physical presence on their opponents and even more so this week as they both lost last weekend to inflict their second defeat on them. Will Lutz’s overtime field goal for the Saints gave them a 26-23 win over the Bears as Chicago struggled to contain Alvin Kamara coming out of the backfield as the all-purpose back went for 96 yards catching balls out of the backfield. How do Chicago stop this high-flying Titans offense? The Titans lost 31-20 in Cincinnati but they couldn’t seem to slow down Derrick Henry as the big beast of a back ran for 112 yards and that would be my concern if I was looking to side with the Bears in this spot as Tennessee will stay committed to the run even if it is not very successful early in the game. They can do that safe in the knowledge that this Chicago offense is hardly likely to score 24+ points in a half so Tennessee will always have time to implement their physical gameplan on the Bears. That said, this Titans defense makes you wonder what Mike Vrable actually did in New England as they are a shambolic mess. Despite starting the season 5-2 the Titans have allowed 27+ points in five of their seven games this season with only Denver (14 on opening weekend) and Buffalo (16 on that strange COVID break game) not scoring the equivalent of almost four touchdowns! Tennessee or pass for me in this game.

Denver Broncos @ Atlanta Falcons Falcons -4 and 50 points Both teams come into this game on the back of encouraging Divisional wins with Denver’s victory costing us dearly as they beat the Chargers by a solitary point in a 31-30 game in the Mile-High City. Atlanta beat the Panthers 25-17 on Thursday Night Football but in that win they lost the services of Calvin Ridley (which gave me a fortuitous Fantasy Football win) and moving forward that will really slow down their, at times, explosive offense. Drew Lock (shown right) makes a lot of mistakes and in that game last week against the Chargers the young man was terrible for three quarters before leading a fourth quarter really. You must give credit to him though for his ability to lead such a comeback given just how bad he was for around two hours previously in the game! I am surprised that this line is set as low as it is and as always it makes me wonder what it would have been if the Chargers had just ground out that game last week and inflicted a 2+ touchdown defeat on Denver in their own backyard. I sense the line would have been Atlanta -6 so does just a quarter of good work from the Broncos warrant this line sitting where it does? I don’t think it makes any sense at all so at this level I am more than happy to side with Atlanta on extended rest with the only issue being that injury to Ridley. They have had extra time to prepare and scheme for this game though and it shouldn’t take too much for them to figure a way to shut down this Denver offense. Home team and more likely Unders!

Carolina Panthers @ Kansas City Chiefs Chiefs -10 ½ and 52 ½ points Is it because we are used to it now or is it the fact that the New York Jets are terrible? That was the question I found myself asking on Monday when I looked through the boxscore and saw Patrick Mahomes had thrown for 416 yards and five touchdowns! KC smashed the Jets 35-9 but, in many ways, it felt like an ordinary game with no real explosive plays. Perhaps such greatness (or ineptness) is what we have grown accustomed to. Carolina had in some ways outperformed their expectations so far this season so in many ways it was no surprise that they lost 25- 18 on Thursday Night Football at home to the Falcons. The Panthers could have star running back Christian McCaffrey (pictured left flexing his muscles) back for this game and if ‘Run CMC’ returns to their line up then suddenly Carolina are a much trickier opponent to game plan for. If this game had been in Week Two of the season, I sense that the Chiefs may have ended up winning this game by about 35 points! I am actually quite keen to lay the points here with the Chiefs but if McCaffrey does play I can just see him squeaking in the endzone during garbage time as the Chiefs play prevent defense as they look to run out the clock. I do like the Overs in this game but as always at this time of year in a game that is being played outdoors, check that weather forecast!

Houston Texans @ Jacksonville Jaguars Texans -6 ½ and 50 ½ points Two bad teams meet here down in Florida and for the first time in this COVID interrupted season this seems a fair fight as both teams come into this game on the back of their Bye Week. I do think that the firing of coach Bill O’Brien at least shows that Houston are already looking to the future which is a statement to their players and staff. In Jacksonville we still have a dead man walking in the shape of Head Coach Doug Marrone who we all know is going to get the bullet at the end of the season. Keeping him on though through the duration of the season will just allow this franchise to drift, the locker room to fracture and will see veteran personnel (well, those they haven’t already traded away) begin to start looking towards next season. I can’t lay these amounts of points on the road with this poor Texans team, but I won’t be siding with the Jags, even at this price point, any time soon.

Detroit Lions @ Minnesota Vikings Vikings -4 and 52 ½ points This is a meeting between the two best bad quarterbacks in the NFL. That might be a bit harsh on Matthew Stafford however the results of last weekend suggest that just as you think you know these teams something happens to make you shake your head! The Lions were smashed on home turf by Indianapolis last Sunday as they conceded 41 points to lose by 20 whilst at the same time Dalvin Cook was running all over Green Bay to land the Vikings a great 28-22 win in Lambeau Field. Cook looks set to have another monster day here in this game as Detroit have done nothing this season to stop anyone’s ground game, well bar Jonathan Taylor’s last week for the Magic Whiteboard, so look out for the big back grinding out plenty of yards here. I sense the Lions are the better team though, so I must lean towards them and the Over.

Seattle Seahawks @ Buffalo Bills Seahawks -3 and 55 points The baton was passed last Sunday in the AFC East as the Bills weathered a late storm from the Patriots to register a 24-21 win in upstate New York and all but ensure that Buffalo finish the season above New England. Seattle beat the 49ers last Sunday as Russell Wilson further firmed up his MVP claims as he threw for 261 yards and 4 touchdowns in a 37-27 win in a once again empty Century Link Field, In our minds we may have a perception that these two sides are defensive minded. They may wish they were but in reality, they are the very opposite as their respective defenses have been poor this season. When the teams met back in November 2016 in Seattle the match finished 31-25 in favour of the home team and I do see another high scoring game here as neither defense seems able to stop a fellow good offense. I have to lean to Buffalo here receiving points at Orchard Park in November but could this be a little bit of a flat spot for them after that epic win last Sunday against the Patriots that exorcised so many demons from the past?

Las Vegas Raiders @ Los Angeles Chargers PK and 52 points Las Vegas won 16-6 in Cleveland last week in a game that was played in almost gale force conditions for the entirety of the game. For a team who moved from the West Coast down to a dome in Las Vegas to come on the road and win a game in horrid conditions in Ohio shows just how tough this Raiders side is. Justin Herbert’s team cost us last Sunday night in Denver as his Chargers side were beaten 31-30 by the Broncos in a AFC West Divisional game. It maybe a little bit harsh to say frame it like Herbert cost us the game as he did throw for 278 yards and 3 touchdowns as it was more the play calling and decision making of Head Coach Anthony Lynn (above) that saw us lose our bet. Midway through the third quarter the Chargers led 24-3. 24-3! When you lead by three touchdowns on the road with less than twenty-two minutes left on the game clock then there is no way you should find a way to lose the game. Anthony Lynn never fails to disappoint though as a set of bizarre and dubious play calls led to the Chargers coming away empty handed from a game they dominated. There continues to be no fans in attendance at SoFi Stadium for Chargers home games, but you must wonder how many will be there when the gates do open for Chargers fans. This line opened Chargers -3 but money for the Raiders has poured in on the back of that great win in Cleveland that pushed Gruden’s men to second place in the AFC West as they stand at 4-3. This should be a good game to watch but from a betting perspective, despite the line move towards my favoured team of the pair, I am going to keep away. I like the Overs though. Back Over 52 points

Miami Dolphins @ Arizona Cardinals Cardinals -4 ½ and 48 points Two franchises greatly on the up move here and the Cardinals will have been spending their entire Bye Week I imagine watching all the available game film of Tua Tagovailoa to see what they can pick him. I The Dolphins may have won the game 28-17 but do not get carried away here and declare Tua Time a huge success as when you look at his raw numbers he went 12 of 22 for 93 yards and 1 touchdown with zero impact on the ground. When he had the ball in his hands he was, at times, waving it around like a bottle of champagne trying to tempt young Miami college girls into his cabana on South Beach! He really needs to tidy up his ball security at this level as that will certainly be a point of emphasis for opposing teams in the coming weeks. From a statistical point of view the Dolphins, despite winning, got blown out as the Rams outgained them 471-145 in yardage and 31-8 in terms of first downs. As we discussed ahead of last week it was the Brian Flores led defence that drove Miami to success last week as once again Flores found a way to shut down a Sean McVay ran offense. I am more than happy here to take the Cardinals laying what I think is a low number given the fact that they are coming in to this game on the back of a well-earned rest and with extra time to prepare for a rookie quarterback playing his first NFL game on the road. Back Arizona Cardinals -4 ½ points

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Dallas Cowboys Steelers -14 and 42 points Only sheer arrogance will see the Steelers tumble here as you can’t lose to a Cowboys side who were humped by 14 points in Philadelphia the week after beating an incredible Ravens side unless you take your eye off of the ball. The Steelers defense should devour this Cowboys offense up for breakfast as it has been confirmed that Andy Dalton misses the game this week during having to go on the COVID list. Just when you thought it couldn’t get any worse hey Cowboy fans. I am happy to take the Steelers here up to maybe -9 ½ on an Alternative Line but over the years backing Big Ben on the road in general, let alone when laying 14, would probably see you living underneath a bridge! Dallas is poo.

New Orleans Saints @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers Buccaneers -4 ½ and 51 ½ points Will Lutz kicked an overtime field goal to give the Saints a hard-fought win in Solider Field last Sunday afternoon as they beat the Chicago Bears 26-23. The Buccs were in action on Monday Night Football when they beat the New York Giants 25-23 in MetLife Stadium. The winning margin was two points but it was a late touchdown from the Giants that made the scoreline look possibly a little closer than the actual gameflow was but it was a game that Tom Brady and co were expected to win by double digits. I remember watching this meeting of the teams back in September 2013 from my apartment in Las Vegas as it was played in the opening weeks of the NFL season down at Raymond James Stadium. On that day the Saints won by just two points when needing to cover a much bigger margin and I lost on that day, so this meeting of these AFC South Divisional rivals has scarred me long term! This point line opened 54 ½ but we have seen a full field goal shaved off that line and once again I think we know the reasons why. These are two old quarterbacks, playing outside in the month of November. Now the weather down in Tampa will be lovely this Sunday but I don’t think it the climatic conditions are as much of a concern as the wear and tear on these two veterans’ bodies half way through a rigorous season where their reps have been limited. The longer-term forecast for Tampa Bay is rain showers to hit the local area on Sunday but it will be warm rain as it will be 26 degrees in that part of Florida this weekend. I lean to the home team and Unders as I am not sure how the Saints move this ball regularly against a stout Buccaneers defense.

New England Patriots @ New York Jets Patriots -7 and 42 ½ points Both teams come into this game on the back of depressing losses for their fan base as the Pats were beaten 24-21 in Buffalo whilst the Jets were hammered 35-9 in Kansas City. The ironic thing is that the Jets actually played quite well at times last Sunday afternoon and it never really felt, from the coverage I saw anyway, that it was as one way traffic as the scoreboard suggested. Will the Jets be confident that they can win this game? I do think that even though the Jets are 0-7 going into this game there will be some semblance of realisation that the Patriots are here for the taking and perhaps a big push by Gang Green this weekend can help alleviate some of the pain that has been inflicted on Jets Nation this season. There is no way I can lay any amount of points on the Pats on the road this season given the up and down nature of their offense. Cam Newton is hot one week and cold the next and he is devoid of offensive weapons to utilise. Can you back the Under here given the Jets defense? Maybe not but Belichick will want to shorten this game and get out of dodge with the win! The only caveat here is, will the Pats look to try and lose this game, so the Jets fall down the pecking order in the hunt for next year’s Number One Draft Pick Trevor Lawrence? Belichick will hate to play him twice a season if he ends up in a green uniform for the next decade!

Prior to the start of this season I highlighted the eight teams that I had narrowed down the Vince Lombardi Trophy Winner to. As we are roughly half way through the season I think it is time to take a look and have a laugh at how badly I got some teams wrong and where we may actually have found some value (current prices in brackets after team name:

13/2 Kansas City Chiefs (15/4) 7/1 Baltimore Ravens (10/1) 11/1 San Francisco 49ers (45/1) 12/1 New Orleans Saints (15/1) 20/1 Dallas Cowboys (300/1) 22/1 Philadelphia Eagles (50/1) 22/1 New England Patriots (125/1) 28/1 Pittsburgh Steelers (6/1)

If we start at the bottom and work our way up then this means we begin at Heinz Field as Head coach Mike Tomlin welcomes back starting quarterback Ben Roethlisberger under centre for the Pittsburgh Steelers. This widely available 28/1 is a HUGE price on the Steelers and offers great value but is clearly a function of two main issues that Tomlin and co face. Pittsburgh are in the AFC Conference where Kansas City and Baltimore both ply their trade, and the Ravens will oppose the Steelers in two divisional games as they both play in the AFC North. You could make the case that given Big Ben’s return and their strong defense that if Pittsburgh played in the NFC then they could even be priced around the 12/1 to win it all. The other matter we must address head on is the fact that I said Big Ben returns after missing all of last season and there must be concerns over his health. Over the past few seasons Ben has spent a lot of the season watching the big screen (as per above left) as he has been plagued by injuries to his ageing body. Roethlisberger is clearly better than any of the other quarterbacks Pittsburgh could wheel out, but he is 38 years of age, has a questionable work ethic and his injury sheet is longer than Peter Crouch’s inside leg! I think the men from the Steel City will gain a Play Off berth, but those two major issues make them a speculative Super Bowl contender, but I will say this. If Lamar Jackson goes down with any kind of injury in Baltimore, then I could see the price on Pittsburgh halving overnight. Pittsburgh lead the AFC North by two games from both Baltimore and Cleveland as they have begun the season 7- 0.

The New England Patriots are next up as they move on from the Tom Brady era in Foxborough and they are a best priced 22/1 to win what would be Bill Belichick’s seventh Super Bowl victory. Obviously, the loss of Brady was a shock, but I sense that the recruitment of Cam Newton on an exceptionally low salary is a masterstroke by the organisation. Newton is on a ‘prove you are worth a big contract’ type of deal and that could be just the sort of motivation that the 2015 NFL MVP requires at this stage of his career. If any team is primed to benefit from the problems that COVID-19 and a shortened off-season brings then it is the Patriots. Belichick is the best coach arguably in the history of the game so if any coach is able to guide his team through such a turbulent time then it is the master planner. Despite losing several good players who have elected to sit out this COVID-19 season they still look a strong well-run organisation. Playing in the weak AFC East will benefit them as they should be able to find a way to navigate themselves to the Play Offs and by then Newton should be fully embedded in the system. I am sure that New England will lean heavily on a very strong defense but once we get into the depths of the Play Offs I am not sure that their offense will be able to give the defense that little bit of help that is often required in the biggest of games. New England are 2-5 after their opening seven games, sit four games behind the Bills and are toast!

If Bill Belichick is one of the best coaches in the history of the game, then Doug Pederson certainly has a case for being one of the best coaches currently working in the game. He led his Philadelphia Eagles to a Super Bowl win in February 2018 as he successfully guided his team to victory with backup quarterback Nick Foles under centre. Last season Pederson performed one of the most incredible coaching jobs that I have ever seen, in any sport, as he guided his team to the Play Offs against a backdrop of the most injuries in key positions I can ever remember. By the end of the season he had a number one wide receiver in the shape of Greg Ward who wasn’t even on the team at the beginning of the season. At times Ward was their main threat and to put things into perspective, this season Ward is touch and go as to whether he even makes it on to the Eagles’ 53-man roster! The value with the Eagles is since they are probably a coin toss selection to win their own division as they play in the NFC East with Dallas. If they do that, gain some homefield advantage in the Play Offs and remain injury free there is no reason at all why they cannot make a return trip to the big game as I sense the NFC is far more open as a Conference than the AFC. Money has come for the Pats as they opened @ 25/1 before being cut to a best price 22/1. Philadelphia are once more ravaged by injuries, do they out something funny in the water there? The Eagles sit a game ahead of Washington in the NFC East and their 3-4-1 record suggests if they win the Division they will have to win two games on the road as their Regular Season record will not be good enough to gain home advantage past the Wild Card weekend.

Dallas are slightly shorter priced than the Eagles and you can see why as they have a potent looking, well on paper at least, offense led by Dak Prescott under centre with Ezekiel Elliott at running back. A wide receiving corps of Amari Cooper, Michael Gallup and CeeDee Lamb looks set to leave many Defensive Co-Ordinators with sleepless nights ahead of taking on the men from Jerry’s World. They also have a massive upgrade in the Head coaching position with Mike McCarthy coming in to replace Jason Garrett. I used to call Garrett the ‘Geography Teacher’ as that was what he looked like to me on the side-line as he seemed completely out of his depth during his entire nine year tenure in charge of the Cowboys. On paper they have a defense with lots of big star names but a fair few of them are now the wrong side of 30 years of age. With a limited off-season to get these guys into football shape I do have some concerns about their ability to hit the ground running. Dallas have a very tough three weeks to open the season up as they travel to LA to take on the Rams, host Atlanta and then travel to the Pacific North West to take on Pete Carroll’s Seattle Seahawks. A four-week period of hosting the Browns, Giants and Cardinals before a trip to Washington is sure to cure any ills they may face in the first three weeks. They will need to get their business done early in the season though as travelling to Baltimore and hosting both the 49ers and the Eagles in the final four weeks of the season will see them longing for a Week One bye in the Play Offs, should they get there! At 2-6 and not one but currently two quarterbacks down, stick a fork in them they are done!

Staying in the NFC and we move down to the South division where Drew Brees once again teams up with Head coach Sean Payton to try and repeat their success of 2010. I am not sure I can argue with the fact that they should win their division as most of the key pieces remain from last season as the Saints go in search of their 4th consecutive divisional title. Brees heads into his 15th straight season as the starting quarterback still able to call on the most dynamic wide receiver in the game in the shape of Michael Thomas. With Alvin Kamara recovered from the injuries that he hid at the back end of last season and Jared Cook looking a solid option at tight end their offense was strong even before they added the sure hands of Emmanuel Sanders to give yet another option for Brees. Their defense has made steady improvements over the past couple of seasons and this season they look to be as good, if not better, than last season when they kept their opponents to less than 20 points in seven of their sixteen regular season games. The wise guys certainly thought that they were overpriced as money came in for them which saw their futures odds cut from 14/1 to 12/1. I sense that if Tom Brady was not in a Buccaneers uniform then we would be seeing single digits on this Saints outfit lifting the Vince Lombardi Trophy in Tampa Bay in February 2021. The sentimental thought of Brady lifting the trophy in his first season at his new team in their own stadium seems to have given you a great entry point into backing a proven team in the form of New Orleans. The Saints are battling with the Buccs at the top of the NFC South and we will know much more about their chances after this weekend’s big game at Raymond James Stadium.

The loser of the Super Bowl from the previous season historically has a bit of a ‘hangover’ but I doubt that there will have been any excess celebrations in San Francisco that will put this team back behind schedule. In many ways I can only see improvement from the 49ers as Jimmy Garoppolo continues his growth in the Kyle Shanahan offense. On the defensive side of the ball the 49ers organisation has convinced Defensive Co-Ordinator Robert Saleh to stay in his role despite Saleh being courted by several organisations to take over the head role. San Fran remain in that very tough NFC West where I don’t see a weak team this season so it is not going to be a cakewalk for them to return to the Play Offs but the schedule compilers have handed them a more than friendly start to the season. They open the campaign at Levi’s Stadium against their divisional rivals from Arizona before heading to the Big Apple to take on first the Jets and then the Giants in MetLife Stadium in consecutive weeks. In non-COVID times I am sure that the 49ers would stay on the east coast so that could cause some issues with travel but in all honesty, they should go 3-0 in those opening three weeks. Further home games against Miami and Washington should all but guarantee them a Play Off spot and then their success will all be down to the most handsome man in football! If Garoppolo can progress, then maybe Jimmy G can progress to the next level then I am sure that this 49ers team will once again end up in the NFC title game. Whether they make a return to the big game? I am not so sure. 49ers currently sit rock bottom of the NFC West but they sit at 4-4 which shows just good of a division it is. They do have a chance of getting into the Play Offs and if they do we know just how dangerous of a team they can be.

We are down to the final two now and there has been a trickle of money for Baltimore to avenge those heart- breaking Play Off defeats of the last two seasons as the Ravens have been backed in from 15/2 to 7/1. There is a huge amount of faith around that those fine defensive minds in the league will not catch up and look to put the skids under that incredible run heavy offense that the Ravens operated last season. Most of those offensive pieces remain in place and on the defensive side of the ball they have really improved bringing in Calais Campbell and Derek Wolfe to bolster what was already a stella defensive unit. Even if there is some offensive regression, which I think most people expect there to be, it is almost the level of regression that is important because at times last season the Ravens totally blew the opposition out of the water. In no fewer than ten games last season the Ravens scored 28 or more points so even a 25% fall back in offensive production will see them scoring 21 points and given those additions on the defense they are still games they would be very competitive in. I do not see a 25% regression, but I hope you get my point that the Ravens were so good last season that they could still fallback and end up winning the Super Bowl. I am sure that one of the best coaching staff in football have a plan in place under Head coach John Harbaugh in case the opposition have some ways to disrupt the Ravens offense. The Ravens are many well respected observers’ choice to win it all but for me, nope. At 5-2 they seem destined for the Play Offs but can Lamar Jackson get over the hump and register a Play Off win?

The Kansas City Chiefs will repeat. It might sound very boring to say and, in some ways, easy just to say that the winners of last season will do exactly the same again but it is how I honestly feel that this season will play out. Let us look at what has happened since they lifted the Vince Lombardi Trophy eight months ago. Patrick Mahomes has signed one of the largest sports contracts in history that ties him to the city forever and in my mind, given his past work ethic, I can only see this helping him take his game to the next level. All of Mahomes’ key contributors on the offensive side of the ball have returned and they have improved their offense by bringing in a potential star at the running back position in the shape of Clyde Edwards-Helaire. Their much maligned defense improved greatly towards the back end of last season and if you factor in the relatively weak division that they play in then I sense it will take an injury to Mahomes to stop them from making the Play Offs. You could even argue that their backup quarterbacks Chad Henne and Matt Moore could, with the talent at their disposal, navigate their schedule and earn a Play Off berth. No sport in the world would have a truly dominant team, like KC were last season, priced @ 13/2 to repeat their success and I sense they will gain homefield advantage and will go into the Play Offs at a best price of 7/2. In my view at that point you could look to hold the bet or trade it to lock in a profit. Either way I think backing the Chiefs to repeat is a pretty savvy play. This game is easy ain’t it? Well Mahomes makes it look easy and at 7-1 they are flying into the post season.

Regular readers will know all about the Super Contest but for those who are new to either the magazine or NFL betting let me give you the run down on this great competition.

They call this the greatest gambling competition in the world. It is so great that in September 2013 I moved to Las Vegas to participate in it! It is a ‘buy in’ tournament organised by the Westgate that costs $1,500 to enter and each week your aim is to pick NFL games against the spread. The lines for each game are posted at 5pm Las Vegas time on a Wednesday and all weekly selections are due by 11am Las Vegas time on a Saturday morning. Prize money is based on the number of entries and last year 3,328 contestants took part with the winner collecting a massive $1,469,644 thanks to their 58-25-2 record which equates to 68.2%. The past six years winners have all recorded performances between 65.9% and 76.2% to walk away with the prize fund.

Obviously, I love the NFL and that was my primary reason for entering the tournament, but it truly was an eye- opening experience for me from a wagering perspective. The weekly process of selecting my bets taught me so much about how I approached my betting, in terms of thought processes and risk analysis, that I would suggest everyone has a go at this. Even if the NFL is not a sport you primarily bet in or even have a huge amount of knowledge on it can be a huge learning tool to look at how you yourself make selections. The key learning point that I took from the whole process is that it is ok to pick losers. When you say that out loud it would at first thought seem quite a ridiculous statement to make but the acceptance of that simple fact that you will make losing bets will greatly help you moving forward. NFL spread bets by their very nature have a coin toss probability and any record of 55% or better is a truly incredible performance. This is where risk management and obtaining what you perceive to be value becomes crucial.

I won’t tell you exactly what I learned about my own gambling but if you want to take a guess by looking at my selections over the next few weeks then don’t hesitate to message me. I soon realised that there were certain games at specific price points where I was better at assessing the risk of each side and had a much larger strike rate than in other games at different line levels. I hope that makes sense to you. All I can suggest is that you have a go and see if you find any kind of trends where you perform well.

A little bit more about the Contest:

Launched in 1988, the Westgate Las Vegas SuperContest is the longest-running football handicapping contest. The (formerly Hilton) SuperContest is so popular that a second version of the contest, SuperContest Gold, is now available for high rollers. Here’s how it works: Contestants for SuperContest and SuperContest Gold both pick five games against a static point spread each week. Each correct pick equals one point. A push counts as half a point.

At the end of 17 weeks, the handicapper with the most points is the winner. While this may sound easy, the 2019 winner of the Super Contest only had 59 winners out of 85 picks.

WESTGATE SUPERCONTEST RULES 2020

The entry fee for the Las Vegas SuperContest costs $1,500. The fee for SuperContest Gold is $5,000. While the entry fee for SuperContest Gold is more than three times higher, the traditional SuperContest pays more money since it as far more entries. There have been 3,328 entries to this year’s SuperContest with the winner set to take home $1,469,644.80 with prizes ranging into six figures down to 9th spot and the top 100 places all receiving cash prizes back to them at a level well over their entry fee.

Non-Nevada Residents (hence why I moved to Las Vegas for six months) Don't live in the state of Nevada? No worries! You can still enter the biggest pro football handicapping contest in the world! Out of state registrants may select a local proxy* to place their weekly SuperContest® selections. All registrations must take place in person at the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook®, and registrants using a proxy service must have their proxy with them. Westgate Las Vegas Resort and Casino is not affiliated with any proxy service.

The lines are published at 5pm Las Vegas time every Wednesday afternoon and because of that we often see wild line moves based on player injuries or wise guy money. I am looking forward to sharing with you my picks and my reasonings each of the seventeen weeks of the regular NFL season.

Last weekend we started 15-20 and we ended up having a solid weekend as we went 3-2 but given that horrendous collapse from the Chargers, we should probably have ended the day going 4-1! We move on to 18-22 for the season and as always in this competition my aim is to try and get to .500 for the season. Anything above that level of performance is a huge bonus because as I always say being forced to pick five games a week is always a tricky thing as often there are not five games you want to pick!

Our wins came thanks to the Chiefs laying a ridiculous amount of 19 ½ points against the Jets, the Dolphns (that late correction via email) +3 ½ in Tua’s debut against the Rams and Chicago +4 ½ in that very close game at Soldier Field against Drew Brees and the Saints. Our losses came in that aforementioned collapse by the Chargers who allowed a 21 point lead to slip on the road in Denver whilst Green Bay let Dalvin Cook run all over them in an empty Lambeau Field to see our Green Bay -6 selection fall short both ATS and Straight Up.

This week’s card is……………..

HOME TEAM ROAD TEAM LINE San Francisco 49ers Green Bay Packers Packers -6 ½ Indianapolis Colts Baltimore Ravens Ravens -2 ½ Washington Football Team New York Giants Washington -2 ½ Tennessee Titans Chicago Bears Titans -5 ½ Atlanta Falcons Denver Broncos Falcons -3 ½ Kansas City Chiefs Carolina Panthers Chiefs -10 ½ Jacksonville Jaguars Houston Texans Texans -7 Minnesota Vikings Detroit Lions Vikings -5 ½ Buffalo Bills Seattle Seahawks Seahawks -3 Los Angeles Chargers Las Vegas Raiders PK Arizona Cardinals Miami Dolphins Cardinals -5 Dallas Cowboys Pittsburgh Steelers Steelers -14 Tampa Bay Buccaneers New Orleans Saints Buccaneers -4 ½ New York Jets New England Patriots Patriots -7

Week Nine Selections Giants +2 ½ Falcons -3 ½ Lions +5 ½ Bills +3 Cardinals -5

Please remember these are my selections as of 5pm UK time Thursday night and would always be subject to late change due to injuries and this season because of any COVID related matters

Week 8 Underdogs 10-4 ATS Underdogs 65-49-2 ATS (57%) with 3 PK’s Overs 62-54-3 (53.4%)

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