Focused-On-Football-6Th-November
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You will see this week that I have re-hashed an old article that I first published a few months ago with regards to Staking and Bank Strategies (some bits of it may still be the same than in its first publication). I decided to do this last Saturday night when I got out and about my beautiful cathedral city (apologies for my dodgy camerawork) for some fresh air following the news of the new UK ‘Lockdown’. I put the word lockdown in inverted comma’s as most people are still going out the house everyday so not quite sure it is he right word to use but most of us should have more time on our hands during the month of November. We should utilise any time this month for some reflection on our betting strategies and how we can best use the many bonuses and welcome offers that betting companies offer. Take a read, or a re- read, and let me know what you think and tell me if you think I have left anything of that jumps out at you. This is a collective effort to take money off the bookmakers! This week we have a few recaps of League Two bets made pre-season and also some NFL wagers made ahead of time. Talking of NFL bets, take a look at what is pictured to the right here. It saddens me to say that this is the last time you will see the NFL Magic Whiteboard. I enjoy betting certain markets in the NFL as I love the research that it entails in terms of game flow and how the match may progress. The match and points teasers have done ok but the Player Market bets have been absolutely terrible. In the words of Kenny Rodgers, you have to “know when to hold them and know when to fold them.” We are doing too well at present to fritter away the odd £5 here and the odd £5 there and erode our profits. So long Magic Whiteboard, I shall miss you. What a week we have seen over in America where it has been election week, the culmination of four years of madness. Surely by Wednesday everyone would be wanting to take a rest after spending all their energy over the last few weeks and months. I have to say the picture posted to the left here made me howl when I opened it up on Wednesday afternoon. Love him or loathe him he certainly is as entertaining as he is dangerous. Donald Trump seemed to want everyone to stop counting in states where he was leading whilst those states where he was losing, he wanted a formal investigation for fraud. After four years of him you would think you would never be lost for words but even I was temporarily speechless by his behaviour on Wednesday. The Kevin Keegan mockup picture was genuis so I tip my hat to those involved in creating it as it certainly made my day! On a serious note though I do feel for all my good friends in Las Vegas and any of my fellow subscribers who are having to life through this nonsense on the other side of the pond. All the best, if you have any questions then please fire them over, have a great weekend and stay safe. Jimmy Kempton Editor *All prices and statistics quoted, unless stated, are correct as of 6am Thursday 5th November* EPL STATS SO FAR THIS SEASON HOME TEAM RECORD ATS 22-40 (6 Pushes) UNDER OVER 1 ½ GOALS 15-53 UNDER OVER 2 ½ GOALS 29-39 UNDER OVER 3 ½ GOALS 42-26 Brighton & Hove Albion v Burnley Brighton – ½ and 2 ½ goals For me this is the game of the weekend and why I love betting so much. Stop laughing! I mean it as I love these kinds of bets where I know I have value. Does that fact always top up your bank balance? Well no it does not but you know you have value when you can back teams like Burnley in this spot. I am shocked and appalled that the line opened Brighton – ½ for this game but the fact that it did had me jumping for joy and even more so when Burnley got a slight spanking last week by Chelsea when they lost 3-0 at Turf Moor. Burnley did not create much in the game but their record against the better sides in this league is a known evil that they seem unlikely ever to overcome, these are the games where they excel. Brighton were in action the following day at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium and I was proposing the fact that the Seagulls might get a bit of a pasting. They lost the game, but it was far from a hammering as they lost 2-1 as it took a relatively late winner from Gareth Bale condemned Brighton to defeat. The sides have met six times in Premier League action since December 2017 with half of the games ending all square including this fixture last season which ended one apiece. Brighton did win 2-1 up at Turf Moor back at the back end of July in the latter stages of the last Premier League season. Only two of those six games have seen an Over 2 ½ goals bet land and probably most interestingly of all the home team in the game when these sides meet have won just one of those six games. Under Sean Dyche the Clarets have an incredible record on their travels away to bottom half placed sides as they have gone 15-12-16 in this spot which equates to a 27-16 record on this line (63%). To begin with I was really annoyed that this game was the first game of the weekend kicking off at 530 pm this Friday evening but then when I thought about it I did a little happy dance because let’s do the checklist of what we like: 1. To oppose favourites 2. To oppose favourites at home around the Even Money mark 3. To oppose favourites in standalone spots in live TV games It is not even as though Brighton have a great track record at home since Potter took over at the beginning of last season as they have gone just 5-8-9 at the AMEX Stadium. Those wins have come against a wide variety of opponent as their victories have come against Arsenal, Bournemouth, Everton, Norwich and Tottenham. Admittedly Dyche’s men have begun the campaign poorly as they are 0-1-5 overall and have netted just three goals so far this campaign. However, they are so strong when hitting the road to take the poorer teams in the league and this is no small sample size given the length of time that Burnley have been in the top flight that you have to take Burnley + ½ goal in this spot. It is the kind of bet that even if it loses you should never ever regret making the wager. It is also the kind of bet I love making as I won’t want to watch this game so there is emotional tie to the game, that you often get when watching a match, when your bet is settled. Back Burnley + ½ goal Southampton v Newcastle United Southampton – ½ and 2 ½ goals Both teams come into this game on the back of victories last time out as they earned good wins against opponents who had begun their own campaigns in fine fashion. Southampton survived a bit of a late scare in their 4-3 win at Villa Park as they had led 4-0 at one point in the game before three goals in the final half hour for the home side made it a nervous last few seconds. Newcastle beat Everton 2-1 as a brace from my own star Fantasy Football man Callum Wilson saw them knock the Toffees off the top of the table. I seem to remember seeing this line a few times over the past few seasons when the Saints have entertained Newcastle and I cannot remember if we have taken advantage of it before! Newcastle have avoided defeat in each of their last three trips to St Marys and last season they won this game 1-0. In fact, the Geordies are unbeaten in all six of the Premier League meetings since October 2017 with the Magpies going 4-2-0 when the sides meet. Over the last five and a bit seasons Southampton are just 23-23-36 at home in Premier League action if you exclude their performance against newly promoted teams. That will go some way to explain the fact that this line opened Southampton – ¾ and has subsequently trended down to the Saints favoured by just half a goal and the goal line has moved down in line to just 2 ½ goals from its opening point of 2 ¾ goals. Danny Ings (shown above left) has been ruled out for six weeks due to injury and I sense that has also played into this line move against the Saints and the goals in the game. Laying half a goal I would almost be tempted, despite that horror show of a record on home soil, to back Southampton here but the loss of Ings stops me from siding with the home team Saints. Ings has scored five and assisted two of the Saints’ fourteen goals this season and the gap that he leaves as the spearhead of that Southampton line up is a huge one to fill.