TRANSNATIONAL I N S T I T U T E NEITHER WAR NOR PEACE THE FUTURE OF THE CEASE-FIRE AGREEMENTS IN BURMA Main armed groups in nothern Burma. Areas are approximate, status of some groups changed groups some of status approximate, are Areas Burma. in nothern groups armed Main Author Printing Contact: Tom Kramer Drukkerij PrimaveraQuint Transnational Institute Amsterdam De Wittenstraat 25 Copy editor 1052 AK Amsterdam David Aronson Financial Contributions Netherlands Ministry of Foreign Affairs Tel: 31-20-6626608 Design (Netherlands) Fax: 31-20-6757176 Guido Jelsma
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[email protected] or registering at www.tni.org Amsterdam, July 2009 Contents Introduction 2 Burma: Ethnic Conflict and Military Rule 4 The Cease-fire Economy 24 Conflict Actors 4 Infrastructure 24 Independence and Civil War 5 Trade and Investment 25 Military Rule 6 Mono-Plantations 25 Cold War Alliances 7 Investment from Abroad 25 The Democracy Movement 7 Logging 26 Mining 27 The Making of the Cease-fire Agreements 8 Drugs Trade 27 The Fall of the CPB 8 The First Round of Crease-fires 9 International Responses to the Cease-fires 30 The NDF and the Second Round of Cease-fires 9 The Role of Neighbouring Countries