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NOVEMBER 29, 2010 | VOLUME LXII, NO. 22 | www.nationalreview.com
ON THE COVER Page 12 From Defeat to Rout The weak economy and previous Democratic gains meant that Republicans Patrick Ruffini on the Tea Party would likely do well in this election, p. 22 especially in the House. But it was Democratic obstinacy that converted a BOOKS, ARTS defeat into a rout. The Editors & MANNERS
COVER: ROMAN GENN 52 FOR GOD AND MAN ELECTION 2010 Conrad Black reviews The End and the Beginning: Pope John Paul 18 YES, THEY DID by John J. Miller II—The Victory of Freedom, And many have Jim DeMint to thank for it. the Last Years, the Legacy, by George Weigel. 22 TEA IN 2012 by Patrick Ruffini How to keep the grassroots growing. 54 MAD SCIENTISTS Edward Feser reviews The Grand 24 POLITICAL ECONOMY by Sean Trende Design, by Stephen Hawking and It’s your policies that were the problem, Mr. President. Leonard Mlodinow. CONGRESSES COMPARED 27 by Ramesh Ponnuru 56 A RELIGIOUS JOURNEY History need not, and likely will not, repeat itself. Travis Kavulla reviews The 30 WHAT TO CUT by Brian Riedl Masque of Africa: Glimpses of Twelve spending-reduction priorities for the new Congress. African Belief, by V. S. Naipaul. 34 THUS DOES IT GROW by Keith Hennessey 57 THE TASTE MAKERS Ten tips for economic dynamism. Fred Schwarz reviews Empty Pleasures: The Story of 36 TAX EXTENSION by Reihan Salam Artificial Sweeteners from Letting rate cuts on top earners expire would cost more than it’s worth. Saccharin to Splenda, by Carolyn de la Peña. 39 FOUR GOVERNORS by Duncan Currie Keep your eye on these rising GOP stars. 59 CITY DESK: WHOA, DUDE! Richard Brookhiser feels the noise. 40 STATES RIGHT by John Hood The Democratic wipeout beyond the Beltway. 42 IN DEFENSE OF DEFENSE by Victor Davis Hanson SECTIONS We will face pressure to cut military spending imprudently, and we should resist it. 2 Letters to the Editor 44 BLUE COLLARS, RED VOTERS by Henry Olsen Ronald Reagan articulated the principles that must underlie 4 The Week a lasting conservative majority. 50 The Bent Pin ...... Florence King 51 The Long View ...... Rob Long 47 TOWARD THE PRECIPICE by William Voegeli 55 Poetry ...... Michael Petti A divided government faces a budget crisis. 60 Athwart ...... James Lileks
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NOVEMBER 29 ISSUE; PRINTED NOVEMBER 11 U. Topia Up North
EDITOR Jonah Goldberg’s “U. Topia” (October 18) was a terrific piece, but his cheap Richard Lowry shot at Canada—he says Canadians “think they’ve transcended international Senior Editors Richard Brookhiser / Jay Nordlinger conflict when really they are enjoying their posh welfare benefits under the Ramesh Ponnuru / David Pryce-Jones Managing Editor Jason Lee Steorts security of America’s cape, subsidized by the billions we spend on a credible Literary Editor Michael Potemra Executive Editor Christopher McEvoy military deterrent so they don’t have to”—drops his grade to “A.” National Correspondent John J. Miller Staff Reporter Stephen Spruiell He should have looked at the 2010 Index of Economic Freedom rankings to Political Reporter Robert Costa Art Director Luba Kolomytseva see where our respective countries rank. He should have compared the size of Deputy Managing Editors Fred Schwarz / Kevin D. Williamson the American stimulus to that of the Canadian one. He should have reflected on Associate Editors Helen Rittelmeyer / Robert VerBruggen the health-care debates in our two countries and determined which one is in - Research Director Katherine Connell tellectually honest and grapples with the issues, and which one is a screaming Research Manager Dorothy McCartney Executive Secretary Frances Bronson contest focused on finger-pointing. He should have considered how infinitesi- Assistant to the Editor Christeleny Frangos Contributing Editors mally small is the difference between the ways the average American and the Robert H. Bork / John Derbyshire Ross Douthat / Rod Dreher / David Frum average Canadian view the fundamental values at the heart of freedom and Roman Genn / Jim Geraghty / Jonah Goldberg Florence King / Lawrence Kudlow / Mark R. Levin responsibility. Had he done so, he would have excised the cheap shot and Yuval Levin / Rob Long / Jim Manzi earned an “A+.” Andrew C. McCarthy / Kate O’Beirne David B. Rivkin Jr.
NATIONALREVIEWONLINE Editor-at-Large Kathryn Jean Lopez Mike Ferguson Managing Editor Edward John Craig Via e-mail Deputy Managing Editor Duncan Currie News Editor Daniel Foster Web Developer Nathan Goulding Technical Services Russell Jenkins JOnAH GOldbErG rEplIEs: Mr. Ferguson makes many fine points for which I
EDITORS- AT- LARGE am grateful. I am willing to concede that our neighbors to the north run the best Linda Bridges / John O’Sullivan college campus in the world. Contributors Hadley Arkes / Baloo / Tom Bethell James Bowman / Priscilla L. Buckley Eliot A. Cohen / Brian Crozier Dinesh D’Souza / M. Stanton Evans Waiting for the Apocalypse Chester E. Finn Jr. / Neal B. Freeman James Gardner / David Gelernter George Gilder / Jeffrey Hart In his fine review of Waiting for “Superman” (“A Kevin A. Hassett / Charles R. Kesler David Klinghoffer / Anthony Lejeune Mighty Wurlitzer,” november 1), ross douthat D. Keith Mano / Michael Novak Alan Reynolds / William A. Rusher fails to mention that director davis Guggenheim’s Tracy Lee Simmons / Terry Teachout Taki Theodoracopulos / Vin Weber last major documentary renders this one moot: Chief Financial Officer James X. Kilbridge Given that we failed to follow the prescriptions Accounting Manager Galina Veygman Accountant Zofia Baraniak outlined in An Inconvenient Truth, our first prior ity Treasurer Rose Flynn DeMaio Business Services must be to get these kids to higher ground. Alex Batey / Amy Tyler Circulation Director Erik Zenhausern Circulation Manager Jason Ng WORLD WIDE WEB www.nationalreview.com Scott Reusser MAIN NUMBER 212-679-7330 SUBSCRIPTION INQUIRIES 386-246-0118 Westlake, Ohio WASHINGTON OFFICE 202-543-9226 ADVERTISING SALES 212-679-7330 Executive Publisher Scott F. Budd Advertising Director Jim Fowler Correction Advertising Manager Kevin Longstreet ASSOCIATE PUBLISHER Paul Olivett James p. pinkerton, the author of “Talking Cures” (June 21), was identified as a PUBLISHER Jack Fowler former domestic-policy aide in the George W. bush administration. In fact, he
CHAIRMANEMERITUS held that position in the George H. W. bush administration. Thomas L. Rhodes
FOUNDER William F. Buckley Jr. Letters may be sub mitted by e-mail to [email protected].
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n Sixty-five and counting: Nancy Pelosi does turn out to be a job creator.
n Soon-to-be-former Speaker Pelosi wants to stay on as minority leader in the new year. For now, she seems safe, though Fox News broke word of a letter from defeated Blue Dogs and others urging her to step aside, and the New York Times asked her in an editorial to do the same (the dead dogs think she became too controversial, the Times thinks she is a bad communicator). Pelosi is a good fundraiser and a tough infighter; her San Francisco liberalism is an even better match with the views of a caucus shrunken to liberal bailiwicks. But for Democrats to re-anoint her is to go into a crouch. Since the minority party in the House has one fewer leadership slot than the majority party, there is also a fight for the minority-whip post between Steny Hoyer (sort of moderate) and James Clyburn (Congressional Black Caucus). Ed Koch said it long ago: “It’s better to win than to lose.”
n Taxes are scheduled to go up on everyone at the start of 2011. Republicans would like to prevent this tax increase but have said that they would compromise by merely delaying it for a few years. Even before the election, the House had a majority in favor of that course. Republicans should press to enact this delaying measure in the lame-duck session. If Democrats block it, the country will know whom to blame for higher taxes—and Republicans can demand a retroactive tax subsidizes abortion, and their constituents in turn abandoned cut in the next Congress. them for pro-life Republicans. In many other races, pro-choice Democrats were replaced by pro-life Republicans. Polling also n The Fed commenced a second round of “quantitative eas- shows that voter sentiment has been slowly moving in a pro- ing.” It will buy $900 billion in Treasury bonds and use them life direction. If the Democrats will not reexamine their con- to increase bank reserves. Inflation hawks are clutching their sciences, they should at least reconsider their politics. gold; advocates of monetary stimulus worry that even this quantity is insufficient. Bernanke dismisses concerns about n This year, two black Republicans were elected to Congress: inflation because the economy has so much “slack.” But slack Allen West in Florida and Tim Scott in South Carolina. The lat- is compatible with inflation, as periods of the Great Depression ter won his primary over two political scions: Paul Thurmond and the 1970s should have taught us. The better argument for and Carroll A. Campbell III. There are now two Hispanic gov- the Fed’s move is that money demand increased in the crisis ernors in the country, both of them Republican, both of them and needs to be accommodated. The biggest problem with the elected on November 2: Brian Sandoval in Nevada and Susana policy is its ad hoc, ruleless nature. The Fed aims for price sta- Martinez in New Mexico. The latter is the first female His- bility, or something close to it, in order to provide a measure of panic governor in the country. There are also two Indian- certainty for economic actors. Careening from one experiment American governors, Bobby Jindal of Louisiana and the newly to another is no way to fulfill that mission. elected Nikki Haley of South Carolina. (Note that these are southern states.) Both are Republicans. Those racist Tea n For years, exit polls showed that opposition to abortion Partiers sure fouled up. benefited candidates, since pro-lifers were more likely to base their votes on the issue than pro-choicers. Perhaps dismayed n America’s bookends, California and New York, were most by these consistent results, the pollsters stopped asking the resistant to the Republican tide. The GOP picked up perhaps question. But the trend appears to have continued. In the 2006 seven House seats in New York but lost every state office, election, the Democrats maximized their gains by running pro- while it picked up somewhere between zero and two House lifers of their own. Many of these politicians abandoned their seats in California, and also lost every state office, except pos-
ROMAN GENN commitments this year by voting for the health-care law, which sibly attorney general. The two states look to be marching on
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THE WEEK in blueness for some time to come. Thanks to the glory of fed- has challenged its constitutionality; voters are apparently just eralism, that would be fine with the rest of us—except that fine with it. California, if it were a private business, would be bankrupt, and New York is not far behind. What will the rest of us do n Rep. Barney Frank, the Massachusetts Democrat, withstood when they ask Washington for help? The big drag on their bud- a strong challenge from Republican Sean Bielat. And, like gets is their public-employee pensions. Obama’s inclination, almost all candidates, he gave a speech after the votes were as the Detroit bailout showed, would be to shovel money at the counted. Scott Johnson, of the Power Line blog, was reminded unions. But newly energized congressional Republicans must of a statement made about Nixon in 1972: “The bastard can’t insist that any help comes with a radical restructuring of union even be gracious in victory.” Frank lashed out against Bielat, benefits. A contract is a contract, as the law recognizes. But against the Boston Herald, against Fox News, and against who pays the piper calls the tune, as reality recognizes. Republicans in general. He lashed out against the very idea that he had to compete for his seat, held for 30 years now. He said n One of the most controversial new laws of this year has been that Republican campaigns were “beneath the dignity of Arizona’s Senate Bill 1070, empowering state agencies to democracy.” He said that his win was “a victory for a concept assist enforcement of federal immigration law. To judge by of government which eschews the anger and the vitriol.” That election returns from the November midterms, voters in was pretty funny, given the nature of Frank’s speech. What Arizona and elsewhere like the law. Arizona state senator would he say after a loss? It would be beautiful to find out. Russell Pearce, the Republican chief sponsor of SB1070, will be the chamber’s new president; his party picked up seats. Jan n The Republican wave washed Brewer, also Republican, who became governor when Janet away Rep. Ike Skelton, Mis - Napolitano joined Obama’s cabinet, and who has staunchly souri Democrat first elected in defended SB1070, was elected in her own right with a healthy 1976. He is a Truman Dem ocrat, majority. To complete the SB1070 trifecta, University of hawkish on national security. In Missouri–Kansas City law professor Kris Kobach, who was fact, his father and Truman were NEWSCOM / instrumental in drafting the bill and has been active in de - good friends. In the Pelosi Con - fending it, was elected secretary of state of Kansas. President gress, Skelton has been chair-
DENNIS BRACK Obama called SB1070 “misguided”; the Justice Department man of the Armed Services
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Committee. We could not have asked for better from that party. Humboldt, and Trinity counties, the state’s big pot-growing We are glad for the Republican wave. But a Democratic party of region. Perhaps growers prefer the high prices of the black nothing but Pelosis and Boxers is too bad. market?
n On the federal level, it can take decades of appointments to n In California, it can be hard to tell whether the government change the makeup of the courts. In some states, however, the is run for the benefit of taxpayers or government workers. San public can vote to remove judges who ignore the law and Diego County took a step toward the proper balance when its instead implement their own policy preferences. And that’s voters approved, by a three-to-one margin, a proposition that why three state-supreme-court judges in Iowa—judges who bars the county from requiring “project labor agreements” on recently decided that gay marriage is a constitutional right— its construction projects. Such agreements can force contrac- lost their seats on November 2. Good riddance. The Founders tors to hire strictly union labor, to provide above-market wages may have been wise to shield federal judges from political and health benefits, to put unneeded apprentices on the payroll, pressures, but it’s good to know that at least some aspects of and to use only local workers—in other words, to spend money the judicial branch remain accountable to the people. We look needlessly and prevent non–union members from competing forward to similar efforts in the future, even though attempts to for jobs. For any government, such a system would be need- remove judges in Kansas and Colorado failed this year. lessly profligate; but in a state with California’s massive bud- getary problems, it can increase the risk of bankruptcy. San n Proposition 19, the California referendum that would have Diego’s citizens have wisely chosen not to spend their money legalized marijuana use in the state, went down by a sizable on further entrenching a privileged cartel. margin, 54 to 46 percent. California already permits pot for medical use, and Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger signed a law n Among the more fevered reactions to the midterm election early this fall that made possession of less than an ounce a results was an astonishing rant on the far-left Daily Kos web- minor offense, which may have reduced voters’ sense of ur - site by “anti-racist” activist Tim Wise (who is white). Under gency. Meanwhile federal anti-pot laws remain in force and the headline “An Open Letter to the White Right, On the Attorney General Holder announced in October that he would Occasion of Your Recent, Successful Temper Tantrum,” Mr. “vigorously” uphold them, which may have made the measure Wise snarled that “Your kind—mostly older white folks be - seem feckless. Interestingly, Proposition 19 lost in Mendocino, holden to an absurd, inaccurate, nostalgic fantasy of what
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THE WEEK America used to be like—are dying. ... And unlike, say, the n Groups of hecklers have been regularly and rudely disrupting bald eagle or some exotic species of muskrat, you are not President Obama’s recent public appearances. But it hasn’t been worth saving. ... Do you hear it? The sound of ... your nation, pitchfork-wielding, guns-and-religion types, or any of the other as you knew it, ending, permanently? Because I do, and the usual suspects. No, these hecklers are young, leftist, and Ivy sound of its demise is beautiful.... We just have to be patient. League. At a speech in Bridgeport, Conn., on October 30, Yale And wait for your hearts to stop beating.” Charming. Mr. Wise’s and Harvard students chanted, “Fund global AIDS!” and held ethnomasochistic fulminations were too much even for Daily signs reading, “Keep the Promise: $50 billion for global AIDS.” Kos. When the thing “went viral,” as we nowadays say, editors One protester, David Carel, a Yale sophomore, complained that slipped in and excised the more foam-flecked passages, though Obama has increased AIDS funding by only $150 million in two too late to prevent the original from being cross-posted. years, after promising to increase it by $1 billion per year. “He’s “Temper tantrum”? We’d say that’s a case of pot calling ket- fallen short,” Carel said. Obama confronted the protesters, begin- tle ... oh, never mind. ning soothingly and then going on to explain, “We’re funding
It Must Be Love
F I said, “There’s really nothing special about my wife,” ever. Never mind that the U.S. should do pretty well on you might think not only that I’m a cad, but that I don’t any sincere liberal’s rundown, too. Also, put aside the I particularly like my wife. If my wife said, “My daughter’s fact that the idea of America’s exceptional nature is a rich fine, but she’s really no better than any other kid,” you might and deep subject of political literature going back to not think she’s lacking in the maternal-love department. only Tocqueville, but The Federalist, Edmund Burke, and Now before I continue, let me say clearly and on the even Marx and Engels. record that these are hypotheticals. My wife is very spe- What I find fascinating is the emotional and psychologi - cial. Indeed, this is an understatement of equal magnitude cal animus against the contention that America is special. to “Breathing is popular” or “Jeffrey Dahmer would make Few subjects elicit more rage and condescension than a poor high-school guidance counselor.” And though we the simple, lovely idea that America is uniquely . . . Amer - might eschew a bumper sticker saying so, we both think ican, and lovably so. Indeed, whenever conservatives talk our kid is better than your kid. But I don’t want to clutter about American exceptionalism, liberals react as if we this space with too much romantic or were speaking German in the 1930s. paternal treacle. But these same liberals fulminate This illustrates a truth about how love with bile whenever it is hinted or sug- works. At some basic level, if you love gested that liberals are somehow lack- something, you must find it preferable ing in patriotism. Well, if, in admittedly to something else, perhaps everything simplistic terms, patriotism means love else. Your reasons can be subjective, or of country, what else are we supposed indeed impossible to identify. I put it to to think when liberals pooh-pooh any you that men who marry women solely suggestion that America is special? because they meet a checklist (Blond When Barack Obama says that Amer - hair: Check! Green Bay Packers fan: ica is no more exceptional than any Check!) aren’t really in love. They may other country, how is that different from grow to love their spouse, but that hap- me saying my wife is no more special pens only when they come to appreciate what makes her than any other woman? Yes, such statements can be different from a mere manifestation of categorical bullet defended from the vantage points of abstraction, rela- points. tivism, or some arbitrary criterion. But how can they be I bring this up because I continue to be amazed by defended in the light of love? Indeed, Obama sometimes the bizarre obsession liberal intellectuals have with sounds like a managerial expert who accidentally ended “American exceptionalism.” Deeply offended by Marco up running America, when he would have been perfectly Rubio’s claim that America is the greatest country on happy with an assignment elsewhere. earth, my friend Peter Beinart recently proclaimed in the I am not saying that all liberals do not love America. Daily Beast that American exceptionalism is a “lunatic What I am saying is that they are hopelessly confused notion.” Michael Kinsley, meanwhile, was so flabber - about how to think about, and, therefore express, their gasted by the stupidity of voters who opposed Obama love of it. My advice: Start with baby steps. Find one nice that he saw fit to pen an essay for Politico titled “U.S. Is new thing to say about America every day. It might be Not Greatest Country Ever.” hard at first, but you’ll get the hang of it. CORBIS
/ Now never mind that America meets at least most of the objective criteria on my checklist for greatest country —JONAH GOLDBERG DON MASON
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THE WEEK global AIDS, and the other side is not. So I don’t know why you n President Obama is attempting to establish some pro-growth think this is a useful strategy.” Obama has by now made a habit bona fides by reviving the U.S.–South Korea Free Trade of blaming every woe on “the other side” and George W. Bush in Agreement, a deal negotiated and signed by George W. Bush particular. This particular canard, then, is exceptional only for its in 2007. The deal fell into a coma in early 2008, right around brazenness: funding AIDS prevention was something that Bush the time that then-candidate Obama was arguing with Hillary was known for. So well known for, in fact, that even Obama’s Clinton in Ohio over who would be the first to pull the country “emerging adult” base seems to know it: The disruptions have out of NAFTA. Election-year politics militated against the pas- not stopped. sage through a Democratic Congress of any trade deal, even one that would add an estimated $10 to $12 billion to annual GDP, and the Korea deal faced the additional hurdle of oppo- sition from the U.S. auto industry. The automakers and their n MSNBC commentator Keith Olbermann was suspend- unions argue that the deal does not do enough to open Korean ed for giving $7,200 total to three Democratic candidates markets to U.S. cars and trucks, but their real concern is the in this month’s elections, thus violating NBC guidelines competitiveness of Korean cars and trucks in U.S. markets. against “the appearance of a conflict of interest.” He was Obama’s trade team is trying to renegotiate the pact to get a back in days, however. The brevity of his time off shows better deal for Government Motors, but the deal as it stands the triviality of his offense. He is the most conspicuous would lead to big gains for most American exporters and con- liberal voice of a conspicuously liberal network. If he sumers. The administration should not let the automakers’ had given money to Christine O’Donnell, that might have objections turn a sure win into a possible loss. Haven’t they been a real conflict of interest. The lines between reporting gotten enough special treatment? and advocacy have frayed comprehensively. Yet a rule is a rule. How hard would it have been n The president’s embrace of India, a country he neglected for Olbermann to give to charity, or early in his administration while attempting to cultivate to buy some major wine instead? Beijing, is belated but nonetheless welcome. As a robustly The sad story here is the metasta - democratic republic, India shares our values; wedged between sis of TV-news personalities—like China and Pakistan, neither of which means it any good, India sports stars, writing their own rules. shares many of our interests. It is an important counterweight The difference being that big-league to Beijing and is acutely sensitive to the risks of Islamic ter- sports are in the black, while news rorism, being a principal target of it. Endorsing India’s aspira- organizations take on the color tion for a permanent seat on the U.N. Security Council in a of the sun that is setting on speech to its parliament, the president gave the Indians the them. symbolic recognition they crave. He promised to relax restric- tions on India’s imports of “dual use” technologies (those with both civilian and military applications), a measure that costs n Al-Qaeda provided an election-eve reminder that it’s not all the United States very little—scant sense worrying about about the economy, stupid. The terror network’s franchise in weapons proliferation when the country already possesses a Yemen again converted aircraft into weapons. This time, home-grown nuclear arsenal—and opens up potentially rich bombs were shipped in airplanes used by FedEx and UPS, channels of trade for American businesses. There is a constant rigged to detonate as they neared their U.S. destinations. temptation to romanticize India and its emergence as a world Investigators now believe this new method may be responsible power; in truth, the country remains poor, backward, and for crashing a UPS plane in Dubai in September, killing two bureaucrat-ridden, despite the impressive progress achieved crew members. This time, the plot was thwarted, barely, by during the recent years of economic liberalization. It will human intelligence: A former terrorist informed Saudi intelli- remain a relatively weak ally, and often a problematic one, but gence, which passed word along to European and American closer cooperation between the U.S. and India promises to counterparts in time to disable explosives-laden packages in leave both nations richer and stronger. England and Dubai. On the positive side, the Obama adminis- tration appears to have learned from some of its prior missteps: n Back in May, President Obama visited California-based The intelligence community cooperated effectively with for- solar-panel manufacturer Solyndra, Inc., which was then wrap- eign services, and the president was quick to call the plot ping up construction on a new factory made possible by a $535 “terrorism” and point the finger at al-Qaeda—there was no million stimulus loan. The president bragged about the 3,000 pretense that the attackers were lone wolves. Baby steps. construction workers that Solyndra temporarily employed to build the factory, and an aide claimed that the firm was going n We’ve never understood the urgency of repealing “don’t to use the factory as a springboard to further expansion and the ask, don’t tell” in the midst of two ground wars, with the chiefs creation of another 1,000 “long-term new jobs.” Not everyone of the Army, Navy, and Air Force reluctant to make the change was so optimistic about Solyndra’s prospects. In March—prior
AP and the commandant of the Marine Corps vocally opposed. Yet to Obama’s visit—auditing firm PricewaterhouseCoopers / Democrats want to end the policy in the lame-duck session of issued a report casting doubt on Solyndra’s “ability to contin- the current Congress before it meets its unlamented demise. ue as a going concern.” It’s starting to look as though the doubters Even those who accept the case for repeal cannot maintain that were right. Solyndra recently announced that it will shut down
VIRGINIA SHERWOOD it is urgent. Don’t rush. its old plant, lay off around 200 permanent and temporary
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workers, and scrap its planned expansion. “We still employed Family Foundation, an organization whose explicit “mission is 3,000 construction workers in the depths of the recession,” commitment to progressive social change.” And so on, for pleaded a Solyndra spokesman to one critical reporter. Let’s almost 50 iterations. There’s one exception, one board member see: If Solyndra goes under, then that means taxpayers spent who has donated to a prominent Republican and no Dem - $535 million to create 3,000 temporary construction jobs (a ocrats: Henry E. Catto contributed only to John McCain, to cost of around $180,000 per job) to build a factory that will help him in his race against . . . J. D. Hayworth. We favor likely stand empty for years, if not decades. Obama’s “new defunding NPR, so that it can adopt a more accurate name: energy economy” is based on transcending math. National Progressive Radio.
n Someone leaked a letter from Laurence Tribe to President n The award of the Nobel Peace Prize to imprisoned dissident Obama, and Ed Whelan posted it at NATIONAL REVIEW ONLINE. Liu Xiaobo has mightily annoyed the Chinese Communists. Tribe is the liberal law professor at Harvard who has taught They are reacting in their habitual manner, with feigned in - generations of students, including Obama and Whelan. He dignation, thuggish bluster, and veiled threats. The Chinese wrote his letter on May 4, 2009, after Justice Souter announced embassy in Oslo, the Norwegian capital, has sent official let- his retirement from the Supreme Court. Tribe’s purpose was ters to a number of European Union embassies asking them not to urge Obama to nominate Elena Kagan—he would do that a to attend the December 10 Nobel award ceremony. The letters year later, when John Paul Stevens retired. Tribe’s purpose explain that Liu, a shy intellectual who has called for democ- more generally was to talk about “a series of appointments” ratic reforms in China, is a “criminal.” They snarl that there that would “gradually move the Court in a pragmatically pro- will be “consequences” for nations that “make the wrong gressive direction.” The letter is interesting on many scores, choice.” These démarches do not quite sink to the level of not least in what it has to say about Sonia Sotomayor, Obama’s “Nice little embassy you’ve got here, be a shame if anything eventual choice to replace Souter. Tribe says that he can cer- happened to it ...” but the gangster mentality is in plain sight. tainly understand Sotomayor’s “demographic appeal.” (She is To their great credit, the EU nations seem to be taking a united Hispanic, in case you haven’t heard.) But, “bluntly put, she’s stand against the leg-breakers of Beijing. Several nations on
Almost every NPR board member has demonstrably liberal political leanings, with heavy support for Democrats, pro-abortion groups, and environmental activism in particular.
not nearly as smart as she seems to think she is, and her repu- the threat-letter mailing list have reacted by promising to send tation for being something of a bully could well make her lib- representatives. All strength to Mr. Liu in his jail cell (and to eral impulses backfire and simply add to the fire power of the his wife, who is under house arrest, though charged with no Roberts/Alito/Scalia/Thomas wing of the Court.” Tribe ends crime), and we hope for a good turnout at the award ceremony. with a fairly bald appeal for a job for himself, “perhaps ...a newly created DOJ position dealing with the rule of law.” After n Over 120 Catholics were attending Mass in the Church of Sotomayor was nominated, Tribe gave glowing on-the-record Our Lady of Salvation in Baghdad when terrorists attacked, reviews for her. His convictions are as flexible as his Consti - firing wildly, killing two priests immediately and fatally tution. wounding a third, then taking the congregation hostage. An affiliate of al-Qaeda in Mesopotamia claimed responsibility, n In October, NPR accepted a $1.8 million grant from George putting out a demand for the release of Islamists in Iraq as well Soros’s left-leaning Open Society Foundations. It was consid- as Muslim girls rumored to have been kidnapped by Coptic ered a watershed, especially when NPR president Vivian Christians in Egypt. When Iraqi security forces arrived, at least Schiller went on in short order to fire Juan Williams. But Soros two of the terrorists exploded suicide vests, killing many isn’t that different from the people who already control and hostages. By the time the outrage was over, 44 Catholics, fund NPR. Matthew Shaffer, one of National Review Insti - seven members of the security forces, and at least five terror- tute’s Buckley Fellows, dug up evidence relating to the poli - ists were dead, and many more were wounded. Shocked sur- tical sympathies of board members of NPR, Inc., and its vivors are unanimous that the intention is to drive Christians fundraising arm, the NPR Foundation. Almost every board out of the Middle East altogether. There used to be at least member has demonstrably liberal political leanings, with 1 million Christians in Iraq, but probably half of them have heavy support for Democrats, pro-abortion groups, and envi- already fled abroad. Archbishop Athanasios Dawood in ronmental activism in particular. Chosen at random: NPR London urges remaining Christians to quit and seek asylum Foundation chairman Antoine W. van Agtmael doubles up as a elsewhere. For Pope Benedict XVI it was enough to say that trustee at the center-left Brookings Institution. Jane Katcher these attacks “undermine trust and peaceful coexistence.” Two has given Democrats and EMILY’s List more than $64,000 thousand years of Christianity in the region are winding down, over the past decade. Sukey Garcetti is director of the Roth and the rest is silence.
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THE WEEK n Admiral Nelson built and n When residents of Denver went to the polls, they encoun- commanded a navy that was to tered a ballot proposal to establish an “extraterrestrial-affairs ensure the supremacy of Britain commission” that would, among other things, “develop proto- through its great days of the 19th cols for peaceful and diplomatic contact with extraterrestrial century. Once he gave junior beings.” Tragically for the cause of intergalactic understanding, officers the advice they needed the proposal was rejected by a margin of 85 to 15 percent. for their careers in the service: They were to obey orders with- n Probably the most famous bit of presidential rhetoric out question, to consider as an between FDR and Reagan is Theodore Sorensen’s, from John enemy every man who spoke ill Kennedy’s inaugural: “Ask not what your country can do for of the king, and finally, “You you—ask what you can do for your country.” It is a troubling must hate a Frenchman as you line: In moments of disaster, we should pull together, but can do the devil.” Long outdated, our country claim us for the war on poverty? On global warm- these proud words nevertheless ing? Sorensen was one of that amphibious species, the presi- came to mind as British prime dential speechwriter/adviser. They loom large when they stand minister David Cameron was near the center; in retirement, they fade much faster than the signing a defense pact with men they served—and rightly so. Presidents set the direction France. The countries will share for their administrations; helping hands only help. Yet a sheen satellite communications, intelligence and cyber-warfare cap - of language can give an agenda a little extra lift. Sorensen’s abilities, joint forces, nuclear and drone technology, and much ideas were conventionally liberal, and Kennedy in his liberal else. The British have got themselves into the position of build- moods reached for them. But there was a germ of eloquence ing two aircraft carriers but having no planes to operate from there that was Sorensen’s. Dead at 82. R.I.P. them. Instead they will share France’s one carrier, although this is mostly in drydock thanks to design flaws. how the two navies are to cooperate is not clear. What language will orders POLITICS be given in? The two countries had differing policies concern- From Defeat to Rout ing NATO, Serbia, Rwanda, and Iraq, and have opposite and entrenched attitudes toward the United States. Maybe the heY can’t say they weren’t warned. The polls showed British navy has really come to its end, but Nelson may yet independents beginning to turn away from President have the last word. T Obama in the spring of 2009. Town halls in the sum- mer showed strong grassroots resistance to the Democrats’ n For San Francisco kids, getting a toy with a happy Meal is health-care plan. In November 2009, Republicans won big in about to become an experience as foreign as using a type- Virginia and New Jersey—both states Obama had carried the writer or a slide rule, thanks to a recent decision by the city’s year before. A few months later, opposition to the health-care board of supervisors banning the providing of toys with law helped Republican Scott Brown to win the Senate seat meals that are deemed unhealthy. “We’re part of a movement that Ted Kennedy had occupied for decades. that is moving forward an agenda of food justice,” said the Democrats had plenty of time to change course. Instead, ban’s sponsor, supervisor eric Mar, emphasizing the dangers they decided that the public was easily confused and would of child obesity and the higher rates of it among low-income come around. The weak economy and previous Democratic children. So what’s next on the agenda? Allowing children to gains meant that Republicans would likely do well in this collect only “tricks” next halloween? Banning candy-filled election, especially in the house. But it was this Democratic piñatas? The rise in child obesity is unfortunate. But when it obstinacy that converted a defeat into a rout. Republicans comes to doling out so-called food justice, the guardians took control of the house, defeated liberal heavyweights should be parents, not politicians. such as Sen. Russ Feingold of Wisconsin, and picked up a slew of governorships and state legislatures. The house will n As well as being the postal abbreviation for Missouri, the now have more Republicans than in any year since the chemical symbol for molybdenum, and a mildly derogatory 1940s—and the most favorable climate for redistricting in street term for homosexuals, the word “mo” is, we learn with living memory. surprise, Australian slang for “mustache” (which they spell Key to this shift was a change of heart among independent “moustache”). From this tiny antipodean seed, or fuzz, has voters. The parties turned out their voters in roughly the same sprouted the Movember movement, whereunder leagues of proportions as in 2006, when the Democrats took the house. males—“Mo Bros”—pledge to grow mustaches in the month But while independents back then had grown weary after of November in order to raise awareness of men’s-health twelve years of a Republican Congress, this year they turned issues, mainly prostate cancer. No, we don’t quite see it on Dem ocrats after only four. either, but the thing has taken off—has, as it were, acquired The Republicans deserve some credit for their own suc- mo-mentum—and is now worldwide. Organizers claim cess. The early popularity of the president did not prevent 28,000 Mo Bros and, yes, Mo Sistas (we’d rather not know) them from opposing a bloated stimulus, and they rejected the in the U.S. They have raised over three million dollars for superficial arguments for cooperating with the Democrats in cancer research and prevention campaigns. Mo’ strength to extending government control of health care. They refused,
SIR WILLIAM BEECHEY them, we say. in short, to acquiesce in their widely predicted extinction.
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THE WEEK importance. Obamacare achieves, at best, a small increase in health coverage at enormous cost; addresses the problems of small numbers of people by threatening the arrangements of everyone; makes employment more expensive at a time of high unemployment; adds to public spending when the federal gov- ernment is already overextended; subsidizes abortion; dramati- cally increases effective marginal tax rates on most Americans when economic mobility is already threatened. It may well even backfire by reducing the percentage of people who have insurance, since paying the fine for not buying insurance will be cheaper for many Americans than buying the overpriced product the law demands they purchase. If conservatives accept the law as a permanent feature of American life, they will have surrendered the fight for consti- tutionally limited government, free markets, and personal responsibility. The law cannot be improved: Its worst features, such as the noxious mandate that all Americans buy insurance Victorious that meets the federal government’s approval, are crucial to the The Tea Partiers have much to be proud of. Portrayed as entire coercive design. extremists and racists, they succeeded in forming a coalition Republicans should not be intimidated by the supposedly that won a majority of the votes—and, incidentally, elected a popular features of the law. Americans tell pollsters that they record number of non-white Republicans. Like any political want to keep insurers from charging higher prices to people movement, and especially any new one, the Tea Partiers made with preexisting conditions. But this regulation has not taken mistakes, choosing a few subpar candidates and thus letting lib- effect, so repealing it will not eliminate any protection—and erals retain some seats they could have been forced to relin- Republicans can and should pledge to increase spending on quish. high-risk pools to help those in this situation rather than de - But they saw an opportunity to change the country’s direction stroying the health-care market for everyone else. and had the fortitude to do it. They have been indispensable Republicans should make their position clear by passing to electing several new conservative stars, including Marco repeal in the House. Senate Democrats will block the bill; rather Rubio, Pat Toomey, and Ron Johnson. (All three of them come than being disheartened, Republicans should thank them for from states that supported Obama, in case anyone’s counting.) gift-wrapping the first campaign issue of 2012. They should Many of the same pundits who after Obama’s election foresaw then attack the law piecemeal. Perhaps the most promising a Republican retreat to the South will now act as though they strategy is to target the bill’s funding mechanisms: Undo the expected these results all along. They will move on to warning cuts to Medicare Advantage, for example, and balance the Republicans of doom next time around. As the Tea Partiers books by delaying implementation of the law’s subsidies and deepen their involvement in politics, they can again prove their regulations. Even if Democrats block these measures, too, the critics wrong by learning from their early missteps. debate will highlight the health-care law’s least attractive fea- The Democrats are still in denial. President Obama concedes tures. At the same time, Republicans should hold hearings on no errors other than failing to talk slowly enough to a dull- the law’s dangerous implications. witted electorate (we paraphrase). Nancy Pelosi is likely to Democrats are betting that the public will come to accept remain the House Democrats’ leader and a symbol of unrepen- Obamacare as a fait accompli. They cannot succeed without tant, top-down liberalism. Evidently the Democrats continue Republican complicity. to assume that the public will come to its senses and the Republican resurgence of the last two years will prove to be an aberration. For the Republicans, that fact is a better portent for 2012 than any of the election returns.
OBAMACARE Repeal: Why and How
OTINg for Obamacare proved hazardous to the political health of Democratic congressmen in swing districts. V Depending on the poll, either majorities or strong
UPI minorities of the public want the law repealed. But the election / has not dislodged the conventional wisdom that the new health- care system is here to stay. Conservatives should sustain their resolve to repeal the law and prove that liberals are once again JOHN ANDERSON : underestimating the endurance of public hostility to it.
TOOMEY The perversities of the law are impressive in number and
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MIKE STOCKER/SUN SENTINEL/ZUMA O Election 2010 candidates,general-electionwhose cam- vatives to man a football team: eleven team: football a man to vatives for them.” is it than you for nerve-wracking more candi-SenateGOP the toreferring was he Instead,vote. the of percent 62 with squeaker this no time: Hewas won which a second race, term own his about ing the returns come in.” DeMint wasn’t talk- your childrenyour“It’ssays.sports,”playhe watching like “It’s nurtured. and aged encour- had he campaigns whose dates untilabout two inthe morning, watching too much going on,” he says. “I stayed up get.” for-totry phoneandcell myoff turn “I Republicansenator from South Ca r o li helps to get na.my mind off things,” says the 8 1 DeMint supported enough conser - conser enough supported DeMint This year was different. “There was “There different. was year This been in a few “I’ve squeakers and it wife. his with movie afternoon an to goes usually n Election Day, Jim DeMint Jim Day,Election NR SPECIAL NR Yes, They Did | And many have JimDeMinttothankfor it .nationalre .com o c w. e i ev r l a n o i t a n w. w w R E L L I M . J N H O J Y B junior senator of a small southern state. have may he but kingmaker, senatorial line. story-midtermdominatedthethat ment That’s quite an accomplishment for the for accomplishment an quite That’s rather Specter than MarcoArlen Rubio and and Pat Crist Toomey. Charlie been have would victors the that vania—but Flor in races won have i Pennsyl and da - it’spossibleRethat pub li stillcanswould his saw thatelections in figurenational important most single GOP’s the been environ- TeaParty the create helped he partygain sixSenate seats. Without him, GOP the involvingfield.Byprimaries,himself in shaping in role outsized an of millions of dollars. Yet DeMint played 2010Senate races amounted tohundreds spendingon totalwhen lot a likesound personal campaign account. That may not ConservativesFund (SCF), as well as his his political-action committee, the Senate paignsreceived nearly $7.5million from Itwould betoo much tocall DeMint a sion of the of sion may go down in history as a modern ver- edition, 2009, 18, May the on appeared “endangeredspecies.” Thiscover, which Republicansan labeledthatcover—one provocative a publish to proceeded and magazinecalled thisquote “astonishing” don’thave a set of beliefs,” he said. markets, free people, than to have 60 that principlesin limitedofgovernment, free publicans Re in 30 the - Senate have who rather really believe would “I promise. com- forsaking by controversy sparked He them. of one wasn’t DeMint losses. senatorsfearedsetbacksnew deep and er the Obama,Ageof plenty Re of pub li can was to establish the SCF. solution His Republicans.” like acting started Republicans until dime another people say that they weren’t going to give many so heard I “But says. money,”he lican Senatorial Committee raise a lot of of candidates. selection “I helped the the national with Repub - starting ditions, conservativeitstrarevive to stepstake - to had party his thatconvinced became DeMint 1970s. the since size smallest its to dwindled caucus GOP the 2008, chamber’s the minority. Re to pub li After the cans elections relegated of losses majoritythe party. Two yearslater, GOP 2004,SenateDeMinttheinjoinedto ed disappointment.When hewas first elect- primary), 51 percent to 49 percent. “Jim Joe Sestak (who had beaten Specter in a congressman Democratic defeated he election general the In Republicans. for victoryto pathonly wasn’tthe cost any provedthatthestrategy moderationof at keep losing.” thana coalition test, then we are going to basedideologicalanon purity testrather is that . . . party a pursuewe “Iflinian. Caro South fellow - a Graham, Lindsey Sen. complainedenough,” conservative not are webecause party a shrinkingas Mint.“Welosingnotstates blueareand De at - out lashed Republicans several parties.ingSpecter crossedaisle,Asthe Pennsylvania.of Specter reacted Specter byswitch- Arlen senator GOP liberal against challenge primary a announced had who congressman former servative contextendorsingof PatToomey, con-a “Dewey Defeats Truman” headline. By the spring of 2009, at the dawn ofdawnthe 2009,at spring ofthe By of born was determination DeMint’s In Pennsylvania, however, Toomey however, Pennsylvania, In the in comment his made DeMint Chicago TribuneChicago R E B M E V O N ’s infamous’s 9 2 , Time 0 1 0 2 base_milliken-mar 22.qxd 11/8/2010 2:01 PM Page 1 election-3col_QXP-1127940387.qxp 11/9/2010 10:03 PM Page 20
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DeMint was a supporter of my campaign nomination. “DeMint’s endorsement was come. Once he had embraced O’Donnell, early on and his personal and financial huge for us,” says Stutzman, who went on however, he followed through with support meant a lot to me,” says Toomey. to win the general election and now will money, giving her more than $535,000 “Not only did he support my candidacy represent the Fort Wayne area in Con- through the SCF and sending another when many were sitting on the fence, his gress. $250,000 from his own reelection ac - support never wavered.” The SCF donat- As he campaigned, DeMint kept say - count to the state party. “I wanted to do ed more than $330,000 to Toomey’s cam- ing that he was looking for Republicans everything possible to give her a chance,” paign. who would come to Washington and says DeMint. “But she was chewed up DeMint’s other bold move was to get “join the fight, not the club.” Can di dates and spit out by the Republican party behind Marco Rubio in Florida at a time who refused to swear off earmarks, for before she found her footing. When your when the NRSC was backing Gov. instance, also swore off the possibility of own party discredits you, it’s a big hill Charlie Crist, another liberal Re pub li can SCF funding. DeMint’s line inspired Ron to climb.” O’Donnell lost to Democrat who was seen as highly electable. Unlike Johnson, the businessman who took on Christopher Coons, 57 percent to 40 per- Specter, Crist didn’t bolt the party right Democratic senator Russ Feingold in cent. away. His departure took nearly a year, Wisconsin. When Johnson introduced In Alaska, the SCF stayed out of the and when it came, Rubio was thrust into him self to GOP senators at a weekly primary. After Joe Miller won it, beating an unpredictable three-way race that in - lunch in the Cap i tol, he pointed to DeMint incumbent senator Lisa Murkowski, De - cluded a last-minute effort by Bill Clinton and said that he also wished to join the Mint channeled $727,000 to Mil l er—and to persuade Dem o crat ic nominee Ken - fight, not the club. The two men had not in the process managed to get under the drick Meek to drop out and endorse Crist. met previously. DeMint informed John- skin of Mur kow ski, who ran as an inde- In the end, Rubio won with a 49 percent son that he was in fact speaking to the pendent write-in candidate. “He’s bought plurality. club. DeMint also directed more than into the Jim DeMint mentality,” she said DeMint’s financial support of more $215,000 in SCF funds to Johnson, who of Miller, referring to his opposition to than $839,000 from the SCF and his per- ousted Feingold, 52 percent to 47 per - earmarks, which Alaska politicians, in - sonal campaign account contributed to cent. cluding Mur kow ski, have used without the victory. His moral support may have Not all DeMint-backed candidates reservation. When Republican senators mattered just as much. Before Rubio fared as well. In Colorado, DeMint sup- refused to strip Murkowski of her com- spoke at his Election Night party in Coral ported Weld County district attorney mittee assignments for trying to defeat a Gables, his campaign played a montage Ken Buck against Jane Norton, a former candidate duly nominated by GOP of video highlights from the previous year lieutenant governor who had the NRSC’s voters—an example of “the club” at and a half. One clip showed Neil Cavuto help. Buck edged out Norton in an August work—DeMint was almost alone in con- of Fox News badgering DeMint about primary and became the biggest recipi - demning the decision. “Joe Miller won Rubio’s chances. As DeMint defended ent of SCF cash, accepting more than his primary fair and square,” he says. “I’m Rubio, the crowd erupted in cheers. $926,000 from DeMint’s committee. not happy with how our party responded.” Toomey and Rubio were DeMint’s ear- DeMint provided an additional $250,000 At press time, the result of the Alaska liest and riskiest moves—and the ones from his personal campaign account election remained uncertain, with write-in that may have the biggest payoff for con- to boost the Colorado GOP’s get-out- votes yet to be counted. servatives in the future. Yet DeMint didn’t the-vote efforts. None of this delivered Other SCF-backed losers included always have a Midas touch. In November enough bang for Buck: He lost by less Sharron Angle in Nevada ($730,000 in 2009, the SCF endorsed California state than a percentage point to Democratic SCF funds), John Raese in West Virginia assemblyman Chuck DeVore, who lost incumbent Michael Ben net. This was per- ($113,000), and Dino Rossi in Wash - the GOP nomination to businesswoman haps DeMint’s biggest error of the 2010 ington ($374,000). Winners included Carly Fiorina. (In the general election, cycle: Buck was certainly conservative, Mike Lee in Utah ($319,000) and Rand Dem o crat ic senator Barbara Boxer beat but Norton wasn’t appreciably less so. Paul in Kentucky ($285,000). Fi o ri na, 52 percent to 43 percent.) Colorado’s GOP primary squabble was DeMint’s visibility in the 2010 elec- A few months later, DeMint endorsed in no way comparable to Toomey vs. tions has led to speculation that he aspires another conservative state legislator, Specter or Rubio vs. Crist. And if Norton to the presidency. In a January interview, Marlin Stutzman of Indiana, in a GOP had secured the nomination, she might I asked him whether he would run for the primary against Dan Coats, a former have enjoyed a different fate on Novem - White House in 2012. “I don’t plan to,” he Republican senator who was coming out ber 2. said, in a classic formulation that can be of retirement. Coats won easily. Yet there Delaware is another state that may have both honest and open-ended. The morn- was a silver lining. In May, when Repub - slipped out of the GOP’s grasp this year, ing after the 2010 elections, he was much lican congressman Mark Souder resigned when Republicans nominated Christine clearer: “No,” he said. “I’ve gotten a few abruptly following an adultery scandal, O’Donnell over moderate congressman calls about it and they’re humbling. But Stutzman jumped into the succession con- Mike Castle. DeMint had announced his when I look in the mirror, I don’t see a test. He was a conservative favorite, due support for O’Donnell, but only days president.” in part to the allies he had made during before her upset primary victory. His Instead, he sees a dissident member of his unsuccessful bid for the Senate. In a endorsement followed Sarah Palin’s and the club, ready for the next fight—but crowded field, he captured the GOP probably made little difference in the out- with a few more teammates.
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of the Web, newly energized conservative ity shareholder if the Republican party and activists moved up the schedule by a few the Tea Party merged. Tea in months. The first Chicago tea party hap- Yet deeper integration is unlikely to pened within days, and tea parties quickly outlive this political moment. Just as 2012 became a national phenomenon; more the grassroots organization built during than a million people are estimated to have President Bush’s winning 2000 and How to keep the grassroots attended them on April 15, 2009—Tax 2004 campaigns did not outlive his pres - Day. iden cy (or even, in fact, persist much growing Republicans at high levels briefly fret- beyond those campaigns), President ted about the image of the GOP these Obama struggled mightily to conjure up BY PATRICK RUFFINI unruly activists would present. Yet Repub - the enthusiasm of his 2008 bid in this lican candidates flocked to speak at the ral- year’s listless campaign, limiting his stops mID all the recriminations about lies, and an alliance between party and to inner cities and liberal college towns. the electoral ineffectiveness of movement quickly formed, even as the After the 2008 election, the vaunted some Tea Party–backed candi- movement worked to take out estab - “Obama movement” mostly fizzled out: A dates, it’s easy to lose sight of a lishment stalwarts in primaries. According It was moved in-house to the Demo - central fact: It’s doubtful that, without a to a post-election report in the Wall Street cratic National Committee and given newly emboldened grassroots movement, Journal, it was the Tea Party–fueled the moni ker “Organizing for America.” Republican politicians would have been showing at the August 2009 health-care Campaign-related activity on “myBO,” able to create enough momentum against town halls that spurred a new wave of OFA’s Web-based organizing hub, was Obama to produce the landslide of No - Republican candidate recruitment—until down as much as 90 percent from 2008 vem ber 2. then the missing piece to any hope of a as activists recoiled at the shift from the As ebullient progressives descended on GOP comeback. frenetic energy of a campaign to White Washington for Obama’s inauguration in With the mission of taking over the House command and control. The experi- January 2009, many Republicans assumed House accomplished, the movement is ence should provide a cautionary tale to the fetal position. Party strategists won- now at a crossroads, and where it goes the Tea Partiers, with their more humble dered just how much they could openly next is a matter of crucial importance for origins: Hitch yourself to established oppose the new president’s agenda, lest the Right. power institutions at your own peril. they be tarred as obstructionist or even One option is closer cooperation with No one is saying that the Tea Party racist. Barely a month into Obama’s term, (and what cynics might call co-option by) movement didn’t have its share of misfires his political operation tied Republicans in the Republican-party structure. Given that this year—for example, the fixation on knots by pressuring them to disown Rush Karl Rove’s “72-hour turnout plan” (an Christine O’Donnell in Delaware kept Limbaugh’s “I want Obama to fail” mono- RNC-run effort to canvass neighborhoods the movement from helping Ken Buck logue. and call voters that was first deployed on a and Dino Rossi across the finish line in The very month after the inauguration, massive scale in 2004) essentially did not Colorado and Washington State respec- two events turned the tide, eventually take place this election cycle, the move- tively. What is clear is that to endure, the leading all the way to the Republican ment’s organizational muscle (not to men- movement will need to grow and develop tsunami this November. tion the hearts and minds of its activist from within—honing its political strategy, The first was the unanimous House- base) will be especially important to the Republican vote against the stimulus, party. It’s unclear who would be the major- which in many observers’ eyes was the moment Republicans woke up from their post-election stupor and resolved to be a real opposition worthy of grassroots support, reminiscent of the kind Bill Clinton faced leading up to his midterm drubbing. The second happened in Chi - cago on February 19. That morning, CNBC’s Rick Santelli, flanked by cheer- ing capitalists on the floor of the Chi - cago mercantile Exchange, tore into the administration’s mortgage-bailout plan and issued a nationally televised and YouTubed call for a Chicago tea party in July. Empowered by the hyperconnectivity
Mr. Ruffini is a founder of Engage, a Republican
ROMAN GENN digital-media firm.
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candidate recruitment, and online infra- the type of activism we want to do. So we structure with little help from traditional talk about it a lot. We recommend it.” Washington players. What comes next for the Tea Party Political The movement’s relationship with the movement? In a sense, the election re - Republican party may be cagey at best— sults—including the lost Senate races in Economy the Tea Party’s greatest pleasures came in Delaware, Colorado, Washington State, beating up RINOs like Charlie Crist and and Nevada—were the best the movement It’s your policies that were the problem, Lisa Murkowski—but its relationship with could have hoped for. With the GOP con- Mr. President the Beltway conservative movement prob- trolling just one chamber, it remains a ably isn’t much better. An October study by quasi-insurgency inside the Beltway, and the Sam Adams Alliance, a pro-free-market insurgencies are conducive to the growth BY SEAN TRENDE nonprofit, found a decided distance be - of true grassroots movements. 2012 will tween Belt way groups and local Tea Party be all about the White House, not Con - N November 2, Democrats activists, with just 6.5 percent of those gress, with the energy of the nomination suffered one of the worst mid - inside Washington agreeing that the Tea fight and the general-election contest term beatings in American Party knew very well how to get its goals O history. The 65 House seats against Obama keeping Tea Party activists accomplished (40.7 percent of activists involved in Republican-party politics for that they are now set to surrender rep - themselves agreed). Though D.C. groups the next two years. resent the largest net loss a party has were highly interested in working with the Yet the Tea Party must take care to avoid endured since 1938. If we measure the Tea Party, a certain elitist attitude pervaded the fate of conservatives in the late 2000s, midterm election in terms of the percent- their members’ responses to the survey, who more or less threw in with the Bush age of seats lost, we will have to go back with one D.C.-based participant saying, administration, only to get disillusioned to 1922 to find a worse midterm. And if “[Our goal] is to inform the Tea Party peo- by the rise in domestic spending. It’s a fate Democrats end up losing one more seat— ple who have humility to understand that that threatens also to befall the progressive only a couple hundred votes in Cali - they don’t understand everything.” movement in 2010; the “netroots” went all fornia’s 11th congressional district, where Ned Ryun, executive director of Amer - in for Obama in ’08, only to have to dis- at press time thousands of ballots were ican Majority—one of the more promising own his political ineptitude this cycle, and still being counted, stand between Dem - new institutions that have risen up around have now largely faded from view. This ocrats and this eventuality—they would the Tea Party movement—wants to ignore doesn’t mean that the Tea Party must be lose a larger percentage of their caucus Washington and go local. “What the cynical and oppositional, but rather that it than any party since the Republicans of movement is really about, quite frankly, is should use this interlude to further develop 1910. the local leaders, and I’ve made a point its leaders and organizing principles. The Democrats are not using this defeat with American Majority of going directly This is why American Majority—which as an opportunity for reflection on the to them, and ignoring the so-called nation- began by asking the question, “What popularity of their policies. President al leaders of the movement,” he told me. “I happens after the Tea Party?”—plans an Obama has flatly rejected the notion that think the national leaders are beside the unprecedented push to identify and recruit the midterm election was about him or his point; if they go away, the movement still new candidates at the local level starting agenda. Instead, he said, it represented a exists. If the local leaders go away, the with the 2012 elections. Focusing on Con - reaction to the poor state of the economy movement dies.” gress and the presidency is well and good, and reflected his inability to sell his poli- The smarter Beltway institutions realize reasons Ryun, but achieving those goals cies to the voters. Other Democrats have that they won’t be able to orchestrate every is of little use without control of local echoed this theme. advance the way they could in times past. governments, where national leaders The idea that President Obama and the They have latched on to the recent book usually start out. Working with the Tea Democrats did an inadequate job of The Starfish and the Spider as a way to Parties, Ryun says, his organization explaining their policies is implausible, explain the growth of the movement. With trained 1,249 new local candidates and given the numerous speeches, television today’s communication networks, the 12,654 activists this cycle. His end goal appearances, and rallies our famously book argues, movements can spawn and is audacious and extends beyond the articulate president offered up during the replicate without central leadership. If you Republican party: “Power in D.C. must be last year. His economic explanation is cut off the spider’s head, it dies. If you cut devolved, and one of the ways you do that more credible—at first blush: Economic the starfish in half, not only does it live, but is to run out the ruling class, one by one, factors figure prominently in almost the two parts grow into separate starfishes. and not just in D.C., but in state capitals every political-science model of elec- FreedomWorks has been busy evange - and municipalities. If the Tea Party can tions. But a deeper look at the data sug- lizing the book and popularizing the begin to control the nomination process— gests that this was largely a referendum Movement 2.0 concept of leaderless repli- for not just the Republican party, but even on the president’s policies. cation. “You take the Dayton tea party and the Democratic party, by running more There’s no doubt that the poor econ - you cut it in half, and it becomes two of conservative options in Democratic pri- omy hurt the Democrats. The major them—and that’s what’s been happening,” maries—then the movement begins to FreedomWorks’s Adam Brandon told control the parties, and then controls the Mr. Trende is a senior elections analyst for Politico in July. “It’s a better model for system.” RealClearPolitics.
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post–World War II recessions (1946, that the Democrats lost more seats that the were angry or dissatisfied with the gov- 1958, 1974, and 1982) have all been economic situation alone would account ernment; while voters did list the econo- accompanied by significant midterm loss- for. Jonathan Chait, a senior editor of The my as the most important issue, they were es for the president’s party, and there was New Republic, wrote a lengthy blog post more likely to support a Republican pro- no reason that this year should have been seeking to preempt any suggestion that gram of tax cuts and deficit reduction than different. When you add in the fact that Obama’s agenda was to blame for the they were to support the president’s pre- Democrats occupied 73 seats leaning midterm losses by detailing a model from scription of more spending. And perhaps toward Republicans and had dozens of political scientist Douglass Hibbs, which most damning for Obama’s explanation freshmen and sophomores as a result of predicted that Democrats would lose 45 of the election results, only 23 percent of the large advances they made in the 2006 House seats based solely on the economy voters blamed the president for the state and 2008 elections, large losses were and the number of seats that they had of the economy. They were more likely to nearly inevitable. picked up over the previous two elections. blame George W. Bush (29 percent of vot- But history also shows that midterm But the Democrats lost a lot more than ers, of whom Republicans won 14 per- elections aren’t always about the econo- 45 seats. It is equally important to remem - cent) or Wall Street (35 percent of voters, my. In 1994, the economy was in ex - ber that Hibbs’s prediction was on the of whom Republicans won 56 percent). cellent shape, but the Democrats were high end of the predictive models. Over - Ultimately, this election was about pum meled as punishment for their at- all, these models predicted losses for more than isolated events. Like the 2006 tempted overreach on health care. In Democrats ranging from the 20s through election for Republicans, the whole was 2002, the country was at the very begin- the low 50s. Those models that focused greater than the sum of its parts. In 2006, it ning of a sluggish recovery, yet the Repub - on the effects of economic factors were on didn’t matter how liberal or conservative a lican party’s foreign-policy successes the low end of that range. In fact, not a sin- Republican was—even Republicans who were enough to propel the GOP to a lar ger gle major political-science model pre - had voted against the Iraq War went down. majority in Congress. The reversal of dicted Democratic losses in excess of 60 The election became so heavily national- those foreign-policy fortunes precipitated seats. ized that decisive numbers of voters in a reversal of the GOP’s political fortunes, We don’t really have to perform com- swing districts simply decided that they and the party lost seats in 2006 despite plex regression analyses to explain this. could not safely elect any Republicans to an economic recovery. We can just look at the results. Going into Congress. The Republican and Demo - Even when the party in power has lost this election, 73 Democrats represented cratic bases turned out in near-equal num- seats during a recession, those losses have districts that leaned toward Republicans. bers in those districts, but independents varied in magnitude substantially. The last Almost all of the Republicans’ pickups strongly favored the Democrats, so the time we had an election-year unemploy- were among these 73 districts. Once Republicans suffered a near-obliteration. ment rate approaching 10 percent was the carnage was over, only 16 such Dem - The same dynamic seems to have been in 1982. That year, Ronald Reagan’s ocrats survived. Eight of them had voted in play this year. If the election had been Republicans lost only 26 House seats. yea on the health-care bill while another only about the economy, we would have Michael Barone, then a Democrat, calcu- eight voted against it. In total, the health- expected to see a much more uniform lated that about half of those losses were care nays fared much better in Republican decline in the Democrats’ vote share directly attributable to the 1982 redistrict- districts: More than half of them sur - across different districts. Instead, the de- ing, which greatly favored Democrats. vived, while about 80 percent of the pro- cline was uneven, reflecting the con- This year, the Democrats’ losses are more Obamacare Democrats in Republican servative/liberal divide. We saw a heavy than double what Republicans lost in districts were retired. And that 80 percent correlation between how strongly Repub - 1982, and there is no redistricting to doesn’t even include Democrats who lican a Democrat’s district was and how blame: Democrats actually had a stronger voted yea, saw their reelect numbers much that Democrat’s vote share declined hand than Republicans did in the last plummet, and decided it would be a good relative to 2008—an indicator that politi- redistricting cycle. Instead, the magnitude time to retire. cal concerns were at work at least as much of their losses is most reminiscent of the We can also just look at the polling as economic ones. In other words, in Republicans’ shellacking in 1974, when data. The CNN exit poll showed that 52 2010, voters in conservative districts the midterm elections were held just percent of voters thought that President and conservative-leaning swing districts months after President Nixon resigned. Obama’s policies would “hurt the coun- made the same calculation that their liber- The Republican base refused to turn out, try.” These voters pulled the lever for al counterparts in liberal-leaning districts and, amid scandal and a deep recession, a Republicans at an 89 percent rate. Fifty- made in 2006 and 2008: that they simply quarter of the Republicans’ already small six percent felt that that “government is could no longer afford to elect members caucus was vaporized. Which is to say, doing too much,” while only 38 percent of the other party to Congress, because it the present recession plus Obama’s felt that the “government should do would result in more of the same distaste- policies yielded a result that is compar - more.” Republicans won 77 percent of ful policies. It’s not just the economy, it’s able to the 1974 recession plus the near- those in the former category. About 65 the philosophy. And since the Democrats impeachment and disgraced resignation percent of voters felt the stimulus had don’t seem inclined to reevaluate their of a president. either hurt the economy or made no dif- policies, it will likely be a long time be - For those who are more quantitatively ference. fore these voters entrust them with such inclined, political-science models suggest On top of that, 74 percent of voters power again.
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First, Republicans won a larger House could win reelection and that Re - majority. In 1995, Republicans had the publicans could lose House seats in Congresses smallest majority of any Congress since 2012. the 1950s. Conservatives were a major - Fourth, having been through 1995, Compared ity of the majority, but not a majority Republicans have learned the lesson that of the House. Holding the conference you can’t govern from the Hill. That year History need not, and likely together on votes was a constant chal- Republicans tried to restrain the growth lenge: Budgets would be too tight for of Medicare. The decision to take on a will not, repeat itself party moderates and too loose for con- popular entitlement was the most impor- servative firebrands. tant reason Clinton won the budget bat- BY RAMESH PONNURU Boehner’s task will be easier. Re- tle. Republicans will not try anything publicans have the largest majority they nearly as ambitious this time. either they exT year in Washington is not have had since the 1940s. For the first will make a deal with Obama—which going to be a replay of 1995. time in the modern history of conser- would require him to make the first The analogy is on everyone’s vatism, the House has an outright con- move—or they will explain that real N mind in the capital. Many Re - servative majority. Michael Barone says reform cannot come until Republicans publicans worry that President Obama that House Republicans are in the sweet get reinforcements in Washington. Boeh - will win the public-relations war against spot: They have enough members that ner was surely aware that his election- Speaker-to-be John Boehner as handily Boehner can let some Republicans out of night comment that “the president sets as Bill Clinton bested Newt Gingrich. tough votes, but not so many that they the agenda” would be his most widely They should relax. have no cohesion. quoted remark. The parallels are obvious. Both times, Second, Republicans did not take the Fifth, the new Republican majority a young Democrat had succeeded Senate, as they did in 1995. As a result, is more seasoned. The last Republican George Bush in the presidency and then the public will be less likely to hold them House before 1995 adjourned in 1955. worked with a Democratic Congress to responsible for governing the country. Almost none of the Republicans who push a liberal agenda. In the next elec- When House Republicans passed legis- took Congress in 1995 had ever been tion Republicans ran against big govern- lation that could not pass a Republican in the majority. Most of them had not ment and won elections up and down Senate, conservatives were demoralized even contemplated being in the ballot, picking up governorships and and the party looked incompetent. Nei - the majority until the 1994 seats in the Senate, the House, and state ther effect will be as pronounced if campaign. The new legislatures. Pollster Kristen Soltis a Democratic Senate kills House- majority in - points out that much of the data from the passed conservative legislation. cludes 2010 election looks nearly identical to Senate Republican leader the numbers from 1994. In both elec- Mitch McConnell, mean- tions, for example, roughly 55 percent of while, will have an easier independents chose Republican congres- time keeping his confer- sional candidates. ence together in the mi - Republicans don’t want what hap- nority. Getting Rand Paul pened after the last Republican takeover to sign off on a Mc - to recur. During the winter of 1995–96, Connell agenda would the new Republican Congress battled be a lot harder than get - with Clinton over the budget—a battle ting him to agree to oppose that reached its climax in partial shut- Harry Reid’s. Finally, if there downs of the government. The public are veto fights with President sided with Clinton. His approval ratings Obama, they will necessarily rose while Gingrich’s plummeted. involve legislation that had sig- The conservative campaign to limit nificant Democratic support. the size and scope of the federal govern- Third, the fact that Repub - ment never really recovered from this licans came up short in the Senate defeat. Within a few years congressional elections will probably temper their Republicans were beginning to run for triumphalism. At the start of 1995, a reelection on pork and incumbency lot of conservatives believed that rather than reform, and George W. Bush history was on their side and would was advancing a “compassionate conser- roll over anyone standing in their vatism” as a way of distinguishing him- way. They thought Clinton was a self from the Gingrichites. sure loser. The Republican take - But there are several differences be - over was widely described as a tween 2011 and 1995 that should work in “revolution.” This time Repub -
ROMAN GENN favor of Republicans. licans are well aware that Obama
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many congressmen who were in the old signed welfare reform in 1996, a few of majority until January 2007. They know his appointees resigned but there was no the ropes—and so do many of their aides. revolt. Obama cannot be so sure that What There won’t be as much need for on-the- MoveOn.org, MSNBC, etc., will stay in job training. his corner if he triangulates. His freedom To Cut Sixth, the new Republican majority is of action is more circumscribed. less factionalized than the old one. The Ninth, Boehner isn’t Gingrich. The Twelve spending-reduction priorities moderate contingent was much larger in new Republican leader is sometimes for the new Congress 1995, though it was declining even then. emotional—he teared up repeatedly dur- Journalists said that Gingrich would ing his election-night press confer- have a hard time managing the new con- ence—but he is not grandiose. Gingrich, BY BRIAN RIEDL servative members of Congress—the by contrast, told confidants in 1995 that “revolutionaries”—just as they are now he was “moving the planet.” Boehner F the 2010 election produced any saying that Boehner will have his hands has learned from the experience of conservative mandates, they are to full with the new congressmen from the Gingrich and Tom DeLay that he is bet- create jobs and to rein in soaring tea parties. But House Republicans have I spending and deficits. Republicans ter off keeping a low profile. No con- been operationally in sync with the tea gressman can win media cycles day after should begin implementing this agenda parties since the start of the Obama pres- day going up against a president one-on- by extending the 2001 and 2003 tax cuts idency, uniformly opposing both the one. Boehner knows it. Boehner isn’t as and paring back a government that now stimulus and Obamacare and almost full of ideas as Gingrich was, but he spends a staggering $30,000 per house- unanimously opposing cap-and-trade won’t make as many mistakes either. hold annually. and card check as well. Tenth, McConnell isn’t Bob Dole. Despite liberal claims to the con - Seventh, Obama isn’t Clinton. The McConnell is smarter and more interest- trary, rising spending—not declining former president started his political ed in policy, and he understands people reve nues—drives America’s long-term career in a relatively conservative state. to his right. Most important, perhaps, he deficits. Once the economy recovers, During his governorship, Arkansas gave isn’t running for president. Dole was revenues are projected to return to their its electoral votes to Republican presi- running for president, and one of his historical average of 18 percent of the dential candidates three times. Clinton principal rivals, Phil Gramm, was also in economy—even if all tax cuts are extend- also ran the Democratic Leadership the Senate. Dole had to run the Senate, ed. Federal spending—rising from its Council, which sought to pull the party pretend to be the movement conservative historical average of 20 percent of the rightward. Obama has had much less he wasn’t, and negotiate with a president economy to a projected 26 percent by experience of appealing to conservative he was trying to replace. McConnell the end of the decade—is the moving and moderate voters. He did it in the doesn’t have any of these burdens. variable. general election of 2008 only under Eleventh, the public seems more con- Nearly all of this new spending will exceptional circumstances and with a cerned about federal spending than it come from Social Security, Medicare, very short record. It’s not clear that he was in 1995. Back then, the deficit was Medicaid, and interest on the debt. Com - is interested in “triangulating” against seen as a symbol of the irresponsibility bined and adjusted for inflation, these congressional Democrats and Repub- of the ruling class in Washington, D.C. annual expenditures will rise from $1.6 licans, much less that he is capable of it. Now it is seen as an imminent threat to trillion to $3 trillion over this decade. Keep in mind that at this point in his the country’s future. That won’t make Therefore, budget reform must include presidency Clinton had already relied on cutting spending easy, but it should make putting Social Security and Medicare on Republican votes to win a high-profile it less politically dangerous. a fixed long-term budget with a capped fight over trade. Obama has done noth- Republicans’ memories of 1995 are a growth rate. ing similar. little distorted. They overstate the elec- Yet major entitlement reforms would Most analysts trace the beginning of toral fallout of their defeat in the budget be phased in slowly. In the meantime, Clinton’s comeback to the Oklahoma showdown. Clinton would have won Congress should enact government-wide City bombing, when he was able to reelection in 1996 even if there had been spending caps that gradually return become the country’s mourner-in-chief no budget battle: It was a great year, with spending to 20 percent or less of GDP. while also linking the atrocity to his peace, prosperity, and falling crime rates. After a $727 billion spending increase opponents’ antipathy to big government. Republicans didn’t lose that many seats, since 2007, there is no shortage of pro- Obama seems far less deft. His response either, and those congressmen who lost grams to cut to meet that 20 percent to the Fort Hood shootings last year almost all did so because they had made target. The 112th Congress should tar - showed no ability to rally the country at personal mistakes (such as not tending to get programs based on their economic a moment of trauma. their districts) rather than because they impact, their cost, and the feasibility of Eighth, Obama has to deal with a lar - had tried to cut Medicare. reforming them. It should build credibil - ger, angrier, and more implacable Left But in any case, next year isn’t going than Clinton did. The Left was chastened to be a rerun of 1995. If Republicans Mr. Riedl is the Grover M. Hermann Fellow in after three Republican presidential terms come a cropper, it will be for different Federal Budgetary Affairs at the Heritage when Clinton took office. When Clinton reasons than they did last time. Foundation.
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ity with the public by including cuts in Two. Ban earmarks. These symbols programs unless they are also willing the federal government’s spending on of waste and corruption cannot be sal- to stop granting special favors to their itself, unpopular earmarks, and even tra- vaged. Taxpayers will never accept So - friends in business. A free market means ditional conservative spending programs. cial Secur ity and Medicare reforms if that businesses rise and fall on their own, Conservatives could begin with the fol- they believe the savings will go toward without politicians’ picking winners and lowing twelve projects: bridges to nowhere. Beyond costing $20 losers. One. Freeze and reform federal pay. billion annually—a non-trivial sum, even Most corporate-welfare spending is Before Washington asks Americans to if it’s just under 1 percent of the federal buried in obscure projects with harmless- tighten their belts, it must tighten its budget—earmarks encourage lawmakers sounding names like the “Technology own. While some federal employees are to vote for budget-busting bills and divert Innovation Program.” Rather than ter - undercompensated, the average federal their attention from higher priorities. minate each program individually, Con - employee receives 30 to 40 percent more Republicans should not leave unelec - gress could ban subsidies for (but not in total compensation than the equiva - ted Washington bureaucrats to distribute contracts with) businesses that have gross lent private-sector worker; all this extra federal dollars to fund local projects in revenues above a certain level. pay adds up to $47 billion. Lawmakers place of earmarks. Rather, grants can be Four. Reform farm subsidies. The $25 should freeze federal pay until it can be distributed by formula to state and local billion farm-subsidy system is a case fundamentally reformed. governments, which are in a much better study in economic illiteracy. It subsidizes Similarly, Congress should cut its own position than Washington, D.C., to de- growers of five crops (wheat, cotton, budget and salaries to 2008 levels, pare cide where to put their streetlights. corn, soybeans, and rice) even if they’re back the surging federal travel budget Three. Ban corporate welfare. Even millionaires while bypassing producers (not every federal conference has to be before bailing out Wall Street, Wash - of nearly all other farm products even if in Maui), suspend acquisition of federal ington spent more on corporate welfare their income is meager. It simultaneously office space, competitively outsource than on homeland security. The public pays some farmers to grow more of their more federal work, and require federal will not trust conservatives to reform crops (through subsidies) and other farm- employees to fly coach domestically. middle- and lower-income entitlement ers to grow less (through a conservation
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program). Overall, subsidies harm small to cover up Obamacare’s deficits) before Concerns about whether students will family farms, taxpayers, consumers, the falling into deep deficit afterward. be able to afford college are unfounded. environment (by encouraging over- The Congressional Budget Office, the Over the past three decades, student-aid planting to maximize subsidies), trade Medicare chief actuary, and the American increases have been one of the causes— (by inviting retaliation against farm Academy of Actuaries have all acknowl- not the result—of tuition increases. The protectionism), impoverished nations edged that CLASS is financially unsus- more aid students receive, the higher (by undercutting their farmers), and even tainable. Even Senate Budget Committee colleges raise tuition to capture that our health (by subsidizing corn and soy, chairman Kent Conrad (D., N.D.) called aid. which are often used to create sugary and CLASS “a Ponzi scheme of the first order, Higher student-loan limits for low- fatty foods, rather than healthier fruits the kind of thing that Bernie Madoff income families are a fairer way of guar- and vegetables). About how many pro- would have been proud of.” (He then anteeing college access. There is no grams can we say that? proceeded to vote for Obamacare.) justification for taxing waitresses and The defeat of more than half the mem- If CLASS is allowed to begin enrolling welders so that future college gradu- bers of the House Agriculture Committee participants in the next couple of years, ates—who will outearn them by $1 presents an opportunity for reform. The it will almost surely collapse within two million over their lifetime—won’t be policy challenge is not farmer poverty decades. The resulting taxpayer bailouts bur dened by the typical $24,000 student (the average farmer significantly out- could cost trillions. loan. earns the average worker) but rather in- Eight. Return highway spending to Eleven. Reduce aid to states. Over come instability (farmers can earn very states. Washington collects the 18.4 the past decade, federal aid to state and little in bad years). Replacing farm subsi- cent–per–gallon gas tax, subtracts a hefty local governments has surged, rising 129 dies with improved crop insurance and administrative fee, and then returns the percent faster than inflation. Endless new Farmer Savings Accounts (in which funds to state governments with nu- bailouts have made Washington one of farmers can save tax-free in good years, merous strings attached. These strings the top sources of state revenue. These and from which they can withdraw tax- include thousands of earmarks, as well as bailouts allow profligate states to delay free in bad years) will help family farm- requirements to divert highway dollars their inevitable belt-tightening and in - ers smooth out the fluctuations in their into bike paths, museums, and prevailing- stead be subsidized by the taxpayers of income at minimum taxpayer cost. wage regulations. There is no reason for responsible states. Five. Recall unspent stimulus funds. Washington to decide where to build a There is no compelling reason for The economic failure of the stimulus road in Appleton, Wis. Washington to finance state-level educa- has become a political disaster for Dem- Congress should eliminate the middle- tion, justice, and economic-development ocrats. Most stimulus dollars have been man and allow states to opt out of the expenditures—especially through failed spent or obligated, yet perhaps $60 federal-highway program. In return for programs such as COPS and firefighter billion could still be recalled in areas agreeing to maintain their interstate high- grants. State and local governments including energy, transportation, and ways, these states could collect and retain should be empowered to address local state aid. If the president vetoes an out- the federal gas tax themselves. problems with local solutions—financed right recall of unspent stimulus funds, Nine. Defund high-speed-rail projects. and held accountable by local voters. Congress could instead use them to offset The Obama administration has provided Twelve. Reduce waste. Although the any new spending the White House $8 billion to states for high-speed-rail budget cannot be balanced by cutting requests. projects and promised more funding waste alone, Congress should not Six. Vote to repeal Obamacare. The later. Yet high-speed rail is extraordinari- ignore this low-hanging fruit. For in - president’s inevitable veto should not ly expensive (California received $2.3 stance, Wash ington runs 342 overlap- dissuade conservatives from passing leg- billion for a new project that some esti- ping economic-development programs, islation to repeal the recent health-care mate will cost $81 billion), and cash- lost $98 billion last year to program law. Such a vote would leave no doubt as strapped states will certainly seek more payment errors, and recently spent $33 to where conservatives stand, and would federal funding. Moreover, these projects million enhancing the Kennedy family force Democrats to go on the record are estimated to reduce the average travel image through the Edward M. Kennedy before the 2012 election. time by as little as 30 minutes compared In stitute for the Senate, the John F. Conservatives can also attack Obama - with driving, and to lower auto rider - Ken nedy Presidential Library and Mu - care piece by piece, by refusing to fund ship by as little as 1 percent. Congress seum, and the Rose Kennedy Green - discretionary bills to implement the law should follow the voters’ backlash way. and by offering legislation to block or against these projects by cancelling their * * * delay its implementation. funding. Seven. Repeal CLASS. Buried in Ten. Trim Pell Grants. After doubling Conservatives should harbor no illu- Obama care is a massive new long-term- Pell Grant spending from $16 billion to sions that cutting spending is easy. care program known as Community $32 billion since 2008, President Obama However, by carefully selecting its tar- Living Assistance Services and Support proposes to give it entitlement status and gets, Congress could save as much as (CLASS). Like Social Security, CLASS spend $52 billion by 2020. Fiscal reality $3 trillion over the next decade and lay will run initial surpluses (a $70 billion demands that lawmakers instead return the groundwork for Social Security, surplus in the first decade will be raided funding to 2008 levels. Medicare, and Medicaid reform.
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elected Republican officials, who are torn growth, you merely shift taxes to the between trying to govern as a majority future. Without a spending-reduction plan, Thus Does party and trying to oppose President a “no-tax-increase” strategy is incomplete. Obama’s agenda as a minority party. Don’t let the president raise taxes now or It Grow One. Prioritize medium-term problems ever, and develop your own credible and caused by the government rather than specific spending plan. Convince voters, Ten tips for economic dynamism trying to push businesses to expand more taxpayers, business leaders, and investors rapidly. The economic-deleveraging pro - that, if given more power, you would use cess is painful, slow, and necessary. Tools it to solve our entitlement-spending prob- BY KEITH HENNESSEY to mitigate the pain or accelerate the lem. Paul Ryan’s “Roadmap” is a good recovery have failed. So, refocus: Stop try- start—federal spending should not exceed hE American people did not ing to mess with the economy’s natural 20 percent of GDP. (I’d prefer much less.) give power to congressional process of rebalancing. You’re only mak- Four. Don’t waste all your time on nick- Republicans; they took it away ing it worse with unintended consequen - els and dimes and process reforms; in - T from congressional Democrats. ces. Don’t restore the homebuyer tax stead, slow entitlement-spending growth. Republicans now have an opportunity to credit or try to put a floor on housing Yes, it’s good to cut stimulus spending. To prove that they deserve majority status— prices. Instead of stimulating particular eliminate earmarks. To cut discretionary that they can operate not just as an opposi- types of investment, or encouraging busi- spending back to 2008 levels or lower, and tion party, but as responsible leaders who nesses to hire, or searching for chimerical to wage the usual Left–Right appropri - are willing to make hard choices and solve shovel-ready projects, spend your time ations battles. These are important for problems. fixing the medium-term problems caused restoring confidence in government, for The goals of an ideal economic-growth by flawed policies. It takes political cour- undoing some of the worst spending agenda are simple and well known: a large age to admit that the short-term economic- excesses of the past two years, and for and thriving private sector and a small adjustment process will be slow and atoning for Republican spending sins. government; reduced government spend- painful, but additional policy distortions Such actions will be popular with many ing, which means lower taxes (or at least will only make things worse. who voted to remove Democrats from not higher ones) and smaller deficits; open The government needs to worry less power. Yet they are quantitatively insignif- trade and investment; taxes and regula- about the private sector and get its own icant in the long run. tions that don’t distort decisions, discour- house in order. There is plenty of work to With the retirement of the first baby age capital formation or work, or provide be done: cutting government spending; boomers, the demographic wave begins to rents to the politically powerful; deep and preventing tax increases; replacing the swamp us. Further delay of entitlement flexible labor markets; a reformed finan- failed Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac with a reform guarantees that tax increases will cial sector that channels savings to where competitive private market; enacting free- become part of a future solution. In Greece they can do the most good; a society in trade agreements with Colombia, Panama, and France, citizens rioted because their which education and innovation flourish, and South Korea; and undoing the worst benefits were being cut. In America, the and the most talented people in the world regulatory excesses of the past two years. new political force wants smaller govern- want to become Americans; a stable, low- Two. Set the right goal: creating the ment. Ignore the AARP’s bleats and tell regulation legal environment, in which conditions for growth rather than trying to the truth about Social Security, Medicare, monetary policy is sound and business create growth. Policymakers need to get and Medicaid. We must make new, more decisions issue from customers and com- the policies right and let business leaders modest, sustainable promises to younger petitors rather than regulators and judges. decide how to run their firms. Corporate workers, who already know that the old Practical policymaking is about moving leaders are sitting on unprecedented piles promises are bogus. incrementally in the right direction rather of cash, waiting to see what Washington We should raise the eligibility age for than trying to achieve the ideal all at once. will foul up next. Take Washington out collecting full benefits to keep up with It’s easy for elected officials to distract of their decision-making by creating a sta- demographic changes. We should trans- themselves with simplistic partisan fights ble, predictable, low-cost business envi- form these programs from forced-savings that are politically advantageous but either ronment. They will then decide how best vehicles into strong safety nets that protect make little headway toward the goal or to hire, invest, and expand. Your job as an future seniors from poverty. We should tell dis tract from more important underlying elected official is not to create economic younger workers that they must start sav- problems. Progress on a practical growth growth or jobs, it is to create the conditions ing now to supplement that safety net, and agenda requires recognizing the limits of under which the private sector creates that they will be responsible for a greater policy and taking political risks. growth and jobs. Stick to your lane and let portion of their retirement and health-care here, then, are ten practical tips for business leaders stick to theirs. costs than their parents and grandparents Three. Spending is now even more were for their own. We should apologize Mr. Hennessey, former senior White House economic important than taxes. Every dollar spent to these young Americans and their chil- adviser to Pres. George W. Bush, blogs at by the government comes from current or dren for waiting so long and letting it get KeithHennessey.com. He is a research fellow at the future taxes. If you focus your legislative this bad, and we should permanently re - Hoover Institution and a lecturer at Stanford energy on keeping current taxes low and structure these programs so that govern- Business School and Stanford Law School. do nothing to slow future spending ment does not expand over time.
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Some Republicans will want to duck more than you disagree with the presi- this political risk, to shirk their responsi- dent on education. He has shown a limit- bility and instead fight about millions in ed willingness to take on the teachers’ Tax outrageous earmarks rather than hun- unions, and you need him to deliver dreds of billions in popular entitlement Democratic votes to overcome a Senate Extension promises. Because we have waited too filibuster. Encourage the president and long to act, we must now either grasp the reward him when he takes these risks. Letting rate cuts on top earners expire third rail or allow America to drift into Prioritize education-reform legislation would cost more than it’s worth European levels of taxation. Any con- and pull him farther than he’s willing to gressman who rejects the Roadmap and go. Treat this as an opportunity for imper- refuses to propose a quantitatively com- fect incremental improvements in law BY REIHAN SALAM parable alternative is implicitly endors- rather than perfect message bills that die ing massive future tax increases. That’s in the Senate. Education is a long-term HE 2001 and 2003 tax cuts are set irresponsible and anti-growth. The poli- economic issue of paramount impor- to expire on December 31. In the tics of this issue are hard but the decision tance. months before the election, the should be easy. T White House pressed the case Nine. Now that cap-and-trade is dead, Five. Tax levels and tax structure are build a supermajority to stop the EPA for permanently extending tax cuts for both important, but levels are a higher from pretending it is a legislature, and households earning $250,000 or less, while priority. Republicans and conservatives then cut a deal. After the Copenhagen congressional Republicans insisted on love to debate the ideal tax reform. Struc- implosion and the death of a domestic extending all of the tax cuts, including tural reform is good, necessary, and very economy-wide carbon price, the presi- those for high-income households. Dozens hard to enact. By all means push for an dent cannot block the EPA from fouling of congressional Democrats, many of them improved tax code, but not at the cost of up the economy without something to facing tough reelection battles, came to higher tax levels or of failing to develop a show for it. Offer a little more money to embrace the Republican stance, forcing the credible long-term spending plan. A per- further subsidize carbon-reducing- Democratic leadership to punt on the issue fectly structured tax code that collects 25 technology R&D in exchange for legis - until the lame-duck session. percent of GDP is worse than a flawed latively stopping the EPA from taking As Princeton political scientist Larry tax code that collects 18 percent of GDP. over much of the economy. Its unchecked Bartels recently argued, the politics of Beware the siren call of the money-pump use of regulatory authority would create the tax cuts rests on the influence of an VAT. uncertainty and be a significant threat to energized minority. According to a Six. Don’t delink income-tax rates. The future economic growth. YouGov/Polimetrix survey conducted in strategy we developed in 2001 and 2003 Ten. Lay the groundwork for repeal late October, only 28 percent of the public worked. Forced by reconciliation rules of the Obama health-care laws in 2013. favors permanent extension of all of the to sunset the tax cuts, we set them all to Develop multiple alternatives. Pass re - 2001 and 2003 tax cuts. Yet this slice of expire on the same day. President Bush peal in the House. Pressure in-cycle the population was far more committed to reframed the top income-tax rates as Senate Democrats to take a stand, and its position, and far more likely to vote, small-business tax rates. This argument make repeal a centerpiece of the 2012 than the 42 percent who prefer the presi- won the day in 2003 and 2010 and will policy debate. In doing so, stop playing dent’s stance. And so, Bartels concludes, win again as long as the expiration dates the Medicare card. While the health-care “candidate Obama’s skillful-looking pro- remain synchronized. Don’t fall for the legislation cuts Medicare spending in the posal to allow the tax cuts to expire only trap of temporarily extending the top wrong way, to prevent fiscal disaster we for the richest 2 percent of taxpayers has rates and permanently extending the need even more Medicare and Medicaid turned out to be very costly for President others. This would guarantee future in - cuts than were enacted in those laws. If Obama and his party, despite its overall creases in the top rates. you use Medicare to scare seniors and popularity.” Seven. Offer to help the president repeal Obamacare but, as a result, cannot Regardless of the political consequen - expand free trade and open investment. address Medicare’s unsustainable spend- ces, the president remains committed Rebuild the center-right free-trade co- ing path, you have made things worse, to some version of his original stance. alition. The president will need to de - not better. Recog nizing that raising taxes by allow- liver a few Democrats to offset the ing the expiration of tax cuts for high- * * * protectionist Republicans (darn them). earners is a non-starter, the White House You can fight economic isolationism, It will be tempting to cherry-pick the has suggested “decoupling” the 2001 and raise American standards of living, help easy partisan fights from this list and 2003 tax cuts. In a recent weekly address, American allies in Latin America and postpone the politically risky elements the president emphasized the importance Asia, cooperate with the president, and for later. Republicans should instead treat of permanently extending the tax cuts for split congressional Democrats. That’s a voters like adults. Explain the mess we’re middle-income households, yet insisted five-part win. in and stress that the solutions will not be that the country could not “afford to bor- Eight. Offer to help the president fight painless. Show the American people that row an additional $700 billion from other the teachers’ unions and improve elemen- you deserve the responsibility provision- tary and secondary education. You agree ally granted to you. Mr. Salam is a policy adviser at Economics21.
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You deserve a factual look at . . . Israel and the United States
Is Israel an asset or a burden to our country?
The United States is without question Israel’s most important ally. Also, without question, Israel is the staunchest and most reliable friend of the United States. But there are some who believe and vigorously advocate that Israel is a burden to the United States and that, were it not for Israel, peace would prevail in the Middle East. What are the facts? Israel is the major strategic asset of the United States in an The “Israel lobby.” There are indeed those who claim that area of the world that is the cradle of Islamo-fascism, which is Israel is a liability, a burden to our country. Professors from dominated by tyrants and permeated by religious obscurantism prestigious universities write essays in which they aver that the and shows almost total disregard for human rights. During the United States is in thrall to the “Israel lobby.” This lobby is said decades-long Cold War, Israel was America’s indispensable to pull the strings of American policy. Its supposed main rampart against the inroads of the Soviet Union. It is now the promoters are AIPAC (American Israel Public Affairs bulwark against the aggressive intentions of Iran. During Committee) and the so-called “neo-cons,” some of whom are Desert Storm, Israel provided invaluable intelligence, an indeed Jewish. They are said to umbrella of air cover for military exert an almost magical spell over “Israel and the United States stand cargo, and had personnel planted in policy makers, including the together in their fight against Islamo- the Iraqi deserts to pick up downed leaders of Congress and the American pilots. President. Some even say that the fascist terrorism. These shared values will Gen. George Keagan, former head Iraq war was promoted by this bind Israel and the United States forever.” of U.S. Air Force Intelligence, stated omnipotent “Israel lobby,” that the publicly that “Israel is worth five President was flummoxed into declaring war on Saddam CIAs,” with regard to intelligence passed to our country. He Hussein, not in order to defend the United States or to promote also stated that the yearly $3.0 billion that Israel received in its interests, but in order to further the interests of Israel. military assistance was worth $50 to $60 billion in intelligence, Israel is indeed a major recipient of U.S. aid. Israel receives R&D savings, and Soviet weapons systems captured and yearly $3.0 billion, all of it in military aid – nothing in transferred to the Pentagon. In contrast to our commitments economic aid. 75% of this military aid must be spent with U.S. in Korea, Japan, Germany, and other parts, not a single military contractors, making Israel a very large customer of American serviceperson needs to be stationed in Israel. those companies. Considering that the cost of one serviceperson per year – America’s staunchest ally. A good case can be made that aid including backup and infrastructure – is estimated to be about to Israel, all of it military, should be part of the United States $200,000, and assuming a minimum contingent of 25,000 defense budget, rather than of the aid budget because Israel is, troops, the cost savings to the United States on that score alone next only perhaps to Britain, by far the most important ally of is on the order of $5 billion a year. the United States. Virtually without exception, Israel’s Israel effectively secures NATO’s southeastern flank. Its government and its people agree with and support the foreign superb harbor, its outstanding military installations, the air policy objectives of the United States. In the United Nations, and sea lift capabilities, and the trained manpower to maintain Israel’s votes coincide with those of the United States over 90% sophisticated equipment are readily at hand in Israel. It is the of the time. The Arabs and other Moslem countries, virtually all only country that makes itself available to the United States in of them recipients of American largess, almost reflexively vote any contingency. Yes, Israel is not a burden, but a tremendous against the United States in most instances. asset to the United States. Israel is indeed America’s unsinkable aircraft carrier in the Middle East and the indispensable defender of America’s interests in that area of the world. The people of the United States, individually and through their Congressional representatives, overwhelmingly support Israel in its seemingly unending fight against Arab aggression and Muslim terror. But that support is not only based on the great strategic value that Israel represents to the United States. It is and always has been based on shared values of liberty, democracy, and human rights. America and Israel are aligned by their shared love of peace and democracy. Israel and the United States stand together in their fight against Islamo-fascist terrorism. These shared values, these common ideals, will bind Israel and the United States forever.
FLAME is a tax-exempt, non-profit educational 501 (c)(3) organization. Its purpose is the research and publication of the facts regarding developments in the Middle East and exposing false propaganda that might harm the interests of the United States and its allies in that area of the world. Your tax- deductible contributions are welcome. They enable us to pursue these goals and to publish these messages in national newspapers and magazines. We #" $# # "# have virtually no overhead. Almost all of our revenue pays for our educational % ! " work, for these clarifying messages, and for related direct mail. !! !" # 99A To receive free FLAME updates, visit our website: www.factsandlogic.org election-3col_QXP-1127940387.qxp 11/9/2010 10:04 PM Page 38
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countries to make all the Bush tax cuts actually increase GNP by 0.6 points, de - The question for conservatives is permanent, even for the wealthiest 2 per- spite the revenue loss. The weak labor- whether this is a deal worth accepting. cent of Americans.” response model finds that partial and full Many will insist that only a full and The president is characterizing his extension have the same impact on GNP. permanent extension of the 2001 and stance as evidence of his commitment to It’s worth stressing that the CBO’s 2003 tax cuts is an acceptable outcome. fiscal restraint. But strikingly, he failed to model could be entirely off-base. For Intriguingly, Bartels observes that only 8 note that the middle-income tax cuts will example, new empirical evidence from percent of the voters who favor perma- cost $3 trillion over the same ten-year researchers at the University of Michigan nent extension of all of the tax cuts have period that he’s using to yield $700 billion suggests that the CBO overestimated the household incomes of $150,000 or more, as the cost of the high-income rate reduc- economic impact of the Making Work while half earn less than $50,000. Tax-cut tions. One assumes that the $3 trillion will Pay tax credit. But for a president who supporters appear to be voting on the also have to be borrowed from other insists that he pays careful attention to basis of their values and aspirations rather countries. the real-world implications of his policy than their narrow pocketbook interests. Congressional Democrats attempted to choices, the CBO’s findings ought to Or it could be that these voters, often paper over this question in February when force a serious reexamination. There is a ridiculed by left-of-center critics for vot- they approved an extraordinary excep - real danger that the president’s favored ing against their own economic interests, tion to the “pay as you go” (PAYGO) rule. approach is the economic equivalent of are convinced that tax increases will As conventionally understood, PAYGO cutting off your nose to spite your face. create strong work disincentives at the top means that all proposed changes to the And if, as Bartels argues, his approach of the income spectrum that will have budget, whether spending increases or doesn’t even have the virtue of being baleful consequences for the broader tax cuts, will have to be balanced by tax politically expedient, one can’t help but economy. increases or spending cuts. Defying logic, wonder why the president is so committed Rather than focus on preserving the the Democratic leadership decided that to it. 2001 and 2003 tax cuts, conservatives the $3 trillion in middle-income tax cuts There is a way out of this impasse, and should embrace a temporary extension would be exempt from PAYGO. But this, it was first proposed by Peter Orszag, the and think seriously about how to overhaul of course, doesn’t change the fact that the president’s former budget director, in an our destructive and inefficient tax code. A $3 trillion will still have to be borrowed. op-ed published in the New York Times. comprehensive reform agenda could dra- One could argue, in the president’s de - Orszag, to his great credit, acknowledged matically lighten the economic burden of fense, that the middle-income tax cuts that the president’s call for permanent taxation, including the 3.5 billion hours will generate enough economic activity to extension of the middle-class tax cuts is a U.S. firms and households spend on justify the revenue loss. Yet it appears that budget-buster. As a compromise measure, tax preparation. And fortunately, con - the high-income rate reductions were the he proposed a temporary extension of all gressional conservatives already have an most economically beneficial component of the 2001 and 2003 tax cuts. Barro has excellent model for comprehensive re - of the 2001 and 2003 tax cuts, as Alan also embraced this approach, and Howard form in the Growth and Investment Tax Viard of the American Enterprise Institute Gleckman of the Tax Policy Center thinks Plan proposed by Pres. George W. Bush’s argued in September. In Viard’s view, it is the most likely outcome. Having 2005 advisory panel on federal tax re - allowing only the high-income rate reduc- fallen short of a majority in the Senate, form. Among other things, the plan re - tions to expire would “combine much of Republicans don’t have the leverage duces the highest marginal tax rate and the disincentive effects of full expiration they’d need to push through a permanent cuts in half the number of tax brackets, with much of the deficit increase of full extension of all the cuts. Yet Republicans thus improving work incentives. It slash- extension.” in the House understand that the presi- es the tax rate on dividends, capital gains, Viard is far from alone in reaching this dent’s “decoupling” strategy will place and interest. And most important, it elim- conclusion. His argument is consistent them in a very weak position when it inates or simplifies a panoply of costly with the findings of the Congressional comes time to debate the tax cuts in two tax deductions aimed at micromanaging Budget Office, led by the well-regarded years. Despite the president’s unpromis- Americans’ economic lives. Democratic appointee Douglas Elmen - ing rhetoric, it looks as though the White There are, of course, many other wor- dorf. Josh Barro of the Manhattan In - House might be willing to cut a deal. thy approaches, including a flat tax or a stitute, writing at NATIONAl REVIEW progressive consumption tax, or the po - ONlINE’s blog “The Agenda,” observed litically attractive, family-friendly tax that the CBO’s strong labor-response plan advanced by Ramesh Ponnuru in model finds that a partial tax-cut exten- NATIONAl REVIEW and Rob Stein in the sion as proposed by the president would pages of National Affairs, which drama - reduce real GNP by 1.2 points—the tically increases the child tax credit. growth effects of the tax cuts would not be Regardless of which approach the Right sufficient to offset the lost government eventually embraces, a temporary exten- revenue. A full extension, in contrast, sion of the 2001 and 2003 tax cuts will would reduce real GNP by only 0.6 buy conservatives the time they need to points, suggesting that the addition of “You can’t win—Congress gives you a bailout, and make the case for a durable, pro-growth the high-income rate reductions would then they want most of it back in bribes!” reform.
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3.0”) by promoting innovation and entre- lion) looms on the horizon, which means preneurship. “He’s a businessman who painful spending cuts are simply unavoid- Four knows how to delegate,” says veteran able. But the new governor will face huge Michigan pollster Steve Mitchell. “He’s resistance from Big Labor, and perhaps Governors been very successful in everything he’s also some pushback from the GOP- done.” controlled state senate, which will be, on Keep your eye on these rising Snyder has proposed abolishing the balance, less conservative than Kasich and MBT (which Mitchell calls “a really oner- Batchelder. (“This is the national head- GOP stars ous tax”) and replacing it with a 6 per- quarters of RINO Republicanism,” jokes cent corporate-income tax. “The MBT is a Vedder.) Buckeye conservatives hope that BY DUNCAN CURRIE job killer,” he told the Detroit News in Kasich will become Ohio’s Chris Christie: September. “It’s driven a lot of companies an aggressive budget-slasher prepared to HE 50 states may be “laboratories out of our state.” Yet implementing such a confront the unions. of democracy,” but sometimes bold tax overhaul will be complicated by Scott Walker (Wisconsin). After their experiments go awry. Snyder’s most immediate challenge: fix- George W. Bush came tantalizingly close T Many of America’s newly elect- ing a deep budget hole. The state deficit to winning the Badger State in 2004, ed governors will be inheriting severe for fiscal year 2012 is projected to be any- Barack Obama carried it handily (by 14 budget deficits that demand root-canal where from $1 billion to $1.6 billion. If Sny - points) in 2008. Two years later, however, fiscal adjustments. In several purple or der can plug Michigan’s revenue gap and Republicans easily defeated Sen. Russ blue states—including Michigan, Ohio, also establish a more business-friendly Feingold (a three-term incumbent), cap- Wis consin, and Maine—Republicans tax regime, that would be a monumental tured the governor’s mansion, and flipped picked up the governor’s mansion and also achievement. both chambers of the state legislature. gained full control of the legislature. The John Kasich (Ohio). Michigan isn’t Governor-elect Scott Walker, the Mil - relative success or failure of the GOP gov- the only Rust Belt state that needs to waukee county executive, is a “policy ernors in those states could have national revamp its tax system and curb its public- geek” who will inherit “a perfect storm of implications. Here are four to watch. sector unions. In the Tax Foundation’s opportunities,” says University of Wiscon - Rick Snyder (Michigan). The 2000s 2011 State Business Tax Climate Index, sin political scientist Ken Goldstein. were a lost decade for Michigan, a state Ohio places a dismal 46th. A separate Moreover, his state has “probably the most that has become synonymous with Rust analysis shows that Ohio went from hav- powerful governor’s office in the country,” Belt decline. Prior to May 2010, it had reg- ing the sixth-lowest combined state and and he will enjoy broad veto authority. istered America’s highest jobless rate for local tax burden in 1977 to having the The 43-year-old Walker will need all the 49 consecutive months. Wolverine State seventh-highest burden in 2008. (And for help he can get. Wisconsin is staring at a policymakers cannot reverse the long- most of that period, there was a Repub - $3 billion deficit, and it ranks a lowly 40th term structural forces that have reduced lican governor in Columbus.) “The tax in the State Business Tax Climate Index. American manufacturing employment, burden is the single most important obsta- Walker has already sent a clear message nor can they undo the damage wrought by cle to economic growth that the state by opposing the completion of a high- union excesses in the auto industry. But government can deal with,” says Ohio speed train line that would connect they can tackle the thorny issue of public- Uni versity economist Richard Vedder. Madison with Milwaukee, dismissing the sector compensation—Mackinac Center Governor-elect John Kasich has signed project as “a short-term fix that will cost scholar James Hohman and researcher Grover Norquist’s Taxpayer Protection the taxpayers of our state millions into the Adam Rule have estimated that “Michi - Pledge (thereby vowing not to support tax future.” Given his wonkish tendencies and gan’s state and local government full-time hikes), as has incoming Ohio house speak- passion for education reform, he may turn employees are getting $5.7 billion more in er Bill Batchelder. Both are rock-ribbed out to be a Wisconsin Republican in the benefits than they would if they received conservatives. Kasich, 58, first gained mold of Tommy Thompson, who gov- benefits equal to those of private-sector national recognition during his tenure as erned the state from 1987 to 2001 and was employees”—and they can address the House Budget Committee chief during the a true policy pioneer on issues such as notorious Michigan Business Tax (MBT), Clinton years, and he later worked as a welfare and school choice. which discourages investment. Fox News host. Addressing a luncheon of “Scott Walker’s got a really tough job,” Enter Rick Snyder, a wealthy venture lobbyists and special-interest bigwigs just Goldstein says. “But if he pulls it off, he capitalist who emerged from a crowded days after his election, he delivered a stern becomes an important national figure.” Republican gubernatorial field and then warning: “We need you on the bus, and if Paul LePage (Maine). How long has it pummeled Democratic candidate (and you’re not on the bus, we will run over you been since Maine Republicans simultane- Lan sing mayor) Virg Bernero on Novem- with the bus. And I’m not kidding.” ously held the governorship and both ber 2, winning election by more than 18 Easier said than done. As the Columbus legislative chambers? The last time those points. A moderate conservative who has Dispatch notes, “More than 85 percent of conditions obtained, LBJ was president, jauntily labeled himself “one tough nerd,” the state budget is spent on Medicaid, the inaugural Super Bowl had yet to be the 52-year-old Snyder will take office K–12 education, higher education, pris- played, and Neil Armstrong was still a with ambitious plans to transform the ons, local governments, and property-tax few years away from making his giant Michigan economy (and create “Michigan relief.” A massive fiscal shortfall ($8 bil- leap for mankind.
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Starting in January, the Pine tree State their first-ever majority in the state senate, governor will be a French-speaking tea and in Alabama and North Carolina, Party conservative with a mind-blowing States where Republicans in each state won con- personal story. Several decades before trol of both houses for the first time since Paul LePage, 62, received “businessman Right Reconstruction. of the year” honors from the Mid-Maine the story of GoP gains in the states Chamber of Commerce and became The Democratic wipeout isn’t just about Democratic governors’ and mayor of Waterville, he was a homeless beyond the Beltway legislatures’ giving way to Republican child navigating the gritty streets of ones. In places where Republican reform- Lewiston. His journey from the poor - ers had already gained some important house to Augusta is far more implausible BY JOHN HOOD ground in recent elections, the 2010 cycle than anything Horatio Alger could have gave them the additional allies they need conjured up. In 2010, he benefited from oteRS obviously gave the presi- to advance key conservative legislation. a three-way gubernatorial race and dent plenty to wince about on Popular Republican governor Mitch squeaked past independent candidate election Day, so it is under- Daniels, for example, can now call on the eliot Cutler. V standable that one particular services of GoP majorities in both cham- Given his roots, LePage has unique irony escaped his notice: Barack obama, bers of the Indiana legislature. And what credibility on the issue of welfare reform, whose most substantive political experi- were slim two-seat house majorities in which he has identified as a top legislative ence before his White House bid was serv- texas and tennessee are now 48- and 30- priority. While Maine’s overall poverty ing three terms in the Illinois state senate, seat GoP supermajorities. rate is below the national average, there are has in just two years managed to reduce observers of national politics tend to enormous disparities between the wealthy his party’s power in state capitals to its look at legislative elections through the tourist hubs along the coast and the hard- lowest point since the 1920s. lens of congressional redistricting. there’s scrabble communities littered across the While the number of GoP congression- no question that Republicans’ new ascen- state’s interior. Many areas are plagued by al victories in 2010 was impressive, the dancy in state capitals has boosted their the sort of post-industrial decay chronicled idea of a Republican majority in the House chances of retaining and even expanding in Empire Falls, Richard Russo’s Pulitzer- doesn’t take much getting used to. After their House majority in coming elections. winning novel. the Maine Heritage Policy all, the party lost the House only four years Michael Barone observes that among the Center reports that nearly 30 percent of ago. But the new Republican majorities states with at least six congressional dis- state residents are enrolled in at least one in the states have no precedent in living tricts, where lawmakers have sufficient of three welfare programs (Food Stamps, memory. on election Day, the GoP netted room to indulge their penchant for elec- Medicaid, and temporary Assistance for half a dozen new governorships and toral cartography, Republicans now con- Needy Families). nearly 700 state legislative seats. It was the trol redistricting in 13 with a total of 165 Speaking to the Waterville Rotary Club largest swing of power in state govern- House seats, while Democrats control in August, LePage excoriated the Maine ment in nearly half a century and gave only four, amounting to 40 seats. ed welfare system as “humiliating and de - Republicans 53 percent of all state legisla- Gillespie, former head of the Republican grading.” He hopes to tighten eligibility tive seats in the country—their highest National Committee and a principal guidelines, boost work requirements, and share since 1928. strategist of this year’s nationwide GoP realign incentives. He also wants to im - Going into the 2010 elections, Dem - push for legislative wins, says that this prove Maine’s business environment by ocrats controlled 60 of the nation’s 98 Republican advantage may turn out to be cleaning up its cumbersome morass of partisan legislative chambers, the Re - worth 15 to 25 congressional seats. (that regulations. In a 2009 survey published by pub licans held 36, and two were tied. doesn’t mean the party will necessarily net the Mercatus Center, political scientists (Nebraska has a nonpartisan and uni - that many seats in 2012; the gains from William Ruger and Jason Sorens calculat- cameral legislature.) Now Republicans redistricting may just offset some of the ed that Maine offers less economic free- have majorities in 56 chambers vs. the normal receding that tends to follow a dom than any state except New York. Democrats’ 40, and there are two ties. wave election.) A final note about LePage: His election Perhaps the sweetest victories for the But it would be a mistake to reduce the will probably bring significant changes to Republicans were in Great Lakes states, significance of this year’s Republican leg- Maine’s “DirigoChoice” health-insurance where only two years before GoP fortunes islative victories to a line-drawing exer- scheme, an obamacare-like program that had seemed particularly dim. Republicans cise. State governments matter. Governors has become a costly mess. Indeed, should now hold the governor’s office and both and state legislatures make critical deci- the Republicans get their way, Dirigo will houses in Indiana, Michigan, Penn - sions about many issues important to con- look “radically different, if it still exists at sylvania, ohio, and Wisconsin—all poten- servatives—education, health care, taxes, all,” says tarren Bragdon, co-chairman of tial battleground states for 2012. As for the business regulation, property rights, and the LePage transition team. If the new most historic gains of 2010, they were in abortion and family policy, just to name a governor makes substantial progress on Minnesota, where Republicans will enjoy few. thanks to the tea Party movement welfare reform and/or health care, he is and recent fights over obamacare and bound to garner (and deserve) national Mr. Hood is president of the John Locke Foundation, climate-change legislation, the future of attention. a public-policy think tank in North Carolina. federalism is a hot political topic. If
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Republican leaders in Washington suc- creation. With budget gaps running 15 have already been done,” Bragdon points ceed in their intention to roll back federal percent to 25 percent in many jurisdic- out. About a quarter of the deficit is attrib- encroachments on state and local preroga- tions, state governments are going to have utable to past decisions not to properly tives, newly empowered governors and to make some very tough decisions in the fund the state’s retirement system, a mess legislatures will have to step up and handle coming months. To an extent scarcely that LePage and the Republican legisla- some of the country’s biggest public- imaginable just a couple of years ago, it ture have no choice but to clean up. They policy challenges. will be conservative leaders making the will have to merge, prioritize, and priva- At the top of the priority list, of course, is most of them. tize across the full range of state pro - the country’s weak economy and the fiscal Consider the example of the Volunteer grams. imbalances that act as both a reflection and State. “Revolution” may be too mild a New Republican governors and legisla- a cause of it. By now, just about everyone term to describe recent political events in tors have policy priorities other than bal- outside of the White House, union offices, Tennessee. Just four years ago, the state ancing budgets, but for now the initiatives and faculty lounges recognizes that Amer- had a popular Democratic governor (Phil with the best prospects are those that ican government is too big, too expensive, Bredesen, the former mayor of Nashville) advance conservative causes while simul- and too burdensome on private households and a Democratic legislature. In 2008, one taneously reducing the fiscal pressure on and businesses. While Washington is of the few bright spots for the GOP in a states. When it comes to education reform, responsible for most of the problem, dismal election cycle was its historic take - for example, charter schools aren’t just a there’s enough blame to go around. Last over of both houses of the Tennessee leg- handy tool for expanding choice and year, expenditures by federal agencies and islature. This year, state voters have not competition but also tend to cost less than departments made up about 21 percent of only expanded the GOP majorities but district-run public schools, often because GDP, while states and localities accounted also elected Republican Bill Haslam as they don’t receive separate tax dollars for for a bit over 14 percent (that’s 11 percent their next governor. It wasn’t even close: facilities. Bragdon says that Maine will funded by direct state and local revenues Haslam (another mayor, this time of Knox - probably enact its first charter-school leg- and another 3 percent in state-managed ville) defeated Mike McWherter (the son islation in 2011, while the new Republican federal grants, primarily for Medicaid). of a former Democratic governor) by a legislature in North Carolina will likely The size of state government has roughly margin of 65 percent to 33 percent. Justin send a bill abolishing its statewide cap of doubled in real terms in recent decades via Owen, president of the free-market Ten - 100 charters to Democratic governor Bev the expansion of existing institutions such nessee Center for Policy Research, ob - Perdue. If she bucks the teachers’ union as public schools and universities as well serves that with Haslam promising to fight and signs the measure, she’ll shore up her as through the creation of new programs in it out with spending lobbies and special weak reelection prospects in 2012. If she economic development, early-childhood interests in Nashville to close the state’s doesn’t, pro-charter lawmakers will likely education, health care, and transportation. projected $1.5 billion budget deficit with- have the votes to override her veto. Rather than budget their revenue gains out tax hikes, the expanded Republican In addition to redistricting and public- conservatively during boom years, build- majorities in both houses of the legislature policy considerations, there’s another ing up rainy-day accounts and setting aside will likely prove pivotal. Republican lead- reason state-level politics is important: reserves to finance trillions of dollars in ers already are committed to both short- Today’s state legislators are often tomor- preexisting pension and health-care oblig- run cuts and long-term budget reforms, row’s candidates for governor and Con - ations, governors and state legislatures Owen says, and they can “use their much gress. Even before the 2010 elections opted for the new, the shiny, and the path of stronger majority to make Tennessee a brought former state legislators such as least resistance. model state for fiscal responsibility.” Marco Rubio into national prominence, 41 As a result, when the recession began to Maine is another state facing both major sitting members of the U.S. Senate and hit in 2008, most states were woefully fiscal problems and a sea change in politi- 223 members of the U.S. House had pre- unprepared for the double whammy of cal leadership. For the first time since viously served in state houses or senates. steep drops in projected revenue and the early 1960s, both the governor and a For decades, Democrats used their major- increased demand for public assistance. legislative majority will be Republican. ity status in state capitals to groom candi- They had more fiscal obligations than Tarren Bragdon, a former state legislator dates for higher office—giving them their taxpayers could afford, particularly himself and the head of the Maine Heri - useful experience in campaigning, raising in states where unfunded liabilities for tage Policy Center, has taken a leave from money, running bills, and chairing com- retiree benefits were already starting to hit his think-tank post to serve as co-chairman mittees. Now Republicans are in a posi- the bottom line. During the past two fiscal of the transition team for incoming gover- tion to do the same. Who knows? Perhaps years, states have had to close budget nor Paul LePage. So far, the process has there’s a future presidential candidate deficits totaling well over $100 billion. been “crazy,” he says, as job seekers cir- about to take office as a member of a new The 2011–12 fiscal year promises to be culate résumés and interest groups jockey legislative majority. Barack Obama began no different—only this time there’s less for position in a newly Republican capital. his road to the White House with service in chance of a big bailout from Washington Maine faces about a $1 billion deficit, Springfield. and less tolerance for tax hikes among amounting to nearly 20 percent of its bud- Come to think of it, the last Republican a right-trending public that is properly get, and, because this is only the latest in a state legislator to become president was worried about the effects of government series of fiscal gaps, “a lot of the gim- Calvin Coolidge. That turned out pretty spending on competitiveness and job micky solutions [to balance the budget] well.
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freezes, radical entitlement reform, and more in the years ahead, even as its chief elimination of entire programs, is it fair to rival, the United States, will have less. In Defense spare defense from the anticipated 2011 In Washington, meanwhile, the Demo - slashing? crat ic White House and Senate are most Of Defense At first glance, clearly no. After all, the likely to compromise on budget cuts if United States will spend over $680 billion defense-spending freezes or reductions We will face pressure to cut on defense this year alone—slated to rise are on the table—concessions that might to $712 billion next year—and well over both preclude increases in income-tax military spending imprudently, $1 trillion when you include defense- rates and facilitate reductions in general and we should resist it related expenses that are not counted in social spending. No doubt the president’s the official Pen ta gon budget. Depending bipartisan deficit commission will include BY VICTOR DAVIS HANSON on how one categorizes the figures, de - defense allocations among the cuts it fense spending now represents over 19 recommends as necessary to balance WO bedrock beliefs of tradi tion al percent of the federal budget and is near- the budget. After all, most government conservatism are fiscal discipline ing 5 percent of the nation’s GDP. Over the bureaucracies have plenty of waste, the and strong national de fense. Like- last nine years, the Pentagon’s budget has Pentagon included—especially in a period T wise, two general rules of bud- grown on average by about 9 percent each of rapid expansion that saw the military getary reform in times of economic crisis year, more than triple the rate of infla- budget double in less than ten years and are, first, to scale back expenditures rather tion—quite apart from the supplementary consume $1 trillion in aggregate budget than raise taxes, and, second, to look at spending on the Afghanistan and Iraq increases above the rate of inflation. defense for some of the deepest cuts. wars. Yet there are also compelling reasons Something therefore will have to give. Indeed, America now accounts for not to cut defense, and these are rarely dis- In the last two years the United States about 40 percent of the world’s military cussed. The United States has an alarming has piled up record $1.3 trillion annual spending. That is six times as much as its record of courting danger when it has budget deficits. That red ink has pushed supposed chief rival, China. And when slashed defense, or even merely been per- the national debt close to $14 trillion, America’s defense expenditure is added ceived abroad to be pruning its military. In approaching 98 percent of the nation’s to the military budgets of Eu rope, as well the 1930s the Germans and Japanese did annual gross domestic product, a peace- as those of Australia, Can a da, Japan, not take the United States seriously as a The United States has an alarming record of courting danger when it has slashed defense, or even merely been perceived abroad to be pruning its military.
time record. Worse still, there is no end in South Korea, and other allies, the Western deterrent power, and understandably sight to this massive borrowing. Trillion- alliance accounts for nearly three-fourths so: It was not until 1943—after tens of dollar budget deficits are scheduled at of all global outlay on defense. Why can’t thousands of American deaths—that the least through 2014 and will take our fiscal conservatives at least freeze Pen - United States finally deployed planes, national debt beyond $18 trillion. tagon spending in an era of near financial armor, and ships that were of rough parity These staggering figures have caused collapse? in numbers and quality with those of its near-panic throughout the world, as the In addition, national security and glo bal Axis enemies. Federal Reserve desperately prints $600 influence are not always measured by After World War II ended, America billion to monetize some of the huge debt, arms alone. China, with an economy one- demobilized and returned to its parsi - gold soars to over $1,400 an ounce, and third the size of ours and a military budget monious military ways. The result: By Washington is chastised as profligate by one-sixth the size of ours, is increasing its August 1950 an outnumbered and out- everyone from Germany to China, which profile in Africa and Latin America and classed American army in South Korea worries about the solvency of its massive is insidiously reminding Japan, the Phil - was confined to the tiny Pusan perimeter. surplus dollar accounts. ip pines, South Korea, and Taiwan that the For the first six months of hard fighting in No wonder, then, that the quest for time is approaching when a near-bankrupt Korea, the military’s obsolete tanks, anti- fiscal sanity became the signature of the United States either cannot or will not sup- tank weapons, and planes proved no Tea Party movement and fueled the gener- port them in times of existential crisis. match for Soviet-supplied T-34 tanks and al Republican political renaissance. But Flush with nearly $2.5 trillion in cash re - MiG-15 jets. amid the talk of across-the-board budget serves (the result of huge ongoing trade Three decades later, in April 1980, post- surpluses and budgetary discipline), China Vietnam budget cuts were the subtext of Mr. Hanson is a senior fellow at the Hoover reminds both neutrals and rivals that it has the humiliating failed mission (Operation Institution and a recipient of the 2007 National plenty of money to buy, bribe, or persuade Eagle Claw) to rescue the Iranian-held Humanities Medal. its way with nations—and will have even hostages. And the post–Cold War defense
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cuts of the 1990s may have made it far professor in the California State more difficult to pursue terrorists or fight University system, I can attest in Iraq and Afghanistan in the new millen- that returning military veterans nium. As Rudyard Kipling put in his poem were more mature and re - “Tommy,” the public demands a superb sponsible in general, and wartime military as much as it neglects were better-motivated it in peacetime—“For it’s Tommy this, students, than my an’ Tommy that, an’ ‘Chuck him out, the average undergradu- brute!’ / But it’s ‘Saviour of ’is country’ ates, who often expand- when the guns begin to shoot.” ed their college experience At present, the world is not tranquil. At to six or eight years of on- least a half dozen countries, including again-off-again study. In short, Iran, North Korea, and Venezuela, have the military was able to train 20- ratcheted up their bellicose rhet or ic, year-old signalmen on aircraft- spurned U.S. efforts at outreach, and either carrier decks to park $150 million jet threatened or harassed their neighbors. fighters wingtip to wingtip far more Our future relations with China, Syria, and safely than college students zoom through of usage per Turkey are at best problematic. Soon-to- campus parking lots. asset. The result, for ex - be-nuclear Iran may start a new strategic- Fourth, we are currently spending on ample, is that in just 20 years the Air arms race in the Middle East, as Sunni defense (at least on average) one point of Force has gone from deploying over 4,000 Arab states seek to deter the Shiite Persian GDP less than we did during the Cold War fighter aircraft to scarcely 1,500. That hegemon. Potentially more frightening in the 1980s—which ended with the means fewer and more costly planes than are the increasing tensions between Japan implosion of a Soviet Union that simply ever before, and more wear and tear on and both China and Russia that stem from could not produce a technologically so - those that we can afford. territorial disputes over islands near the phisticated and disciplined military com- Of course it is salutary to review care- Japanese mainland. It is almost a given mensurate with America’s re-equipped fully all Pentagon expenditures, and to that anytime the post-war United States and expanded armed forces. When the make sure we are not purchasing assets or cuts its military or tires of its global deter- George W. Bush administration entered fielding forces that we do not need, or that rent role, it will soon rue the effort and pay office, we were spending only about 3 per- are not in line with our strategic goals and for its laxity with blood and treasure. cent of GDP on defense, a historic low, responsibilities. But we should also re - Second, the United States military and the figure did not exceed 4 percent member that near the end of the Cold War, keeps international peace in many quiet until the latter half of Bush’s second term. in 1988, income taxes were lower (28 ways that transcend its more overt efforts In other words, in terms of the overall percent on top brackets), budget deficits to rid the world of assorted thugs, genoci- economy, the present military budget is were smaller (3 percent of GDP), and dal dictators, and terrorist sponsors such as not historically high. defense expenditures were proportionally Saddam Hussein, Slo bo dan Milosevic, Fifth, the U.S. military is billions of dol- greater (5.8 percent of GDP) than they are Manuel Noriega, and the Taliban. NATO, lars behind in repairing or replacing equip- now—reminding us that the present bud- which would be impossible without the ment worn out by years of fighting in get meltdown reflects particular policies United States, cools a number of tradi - Afghanistan and Iraq and by its increased and priorities that transcend both tax rates tional hot spots like Cyprus, the Aegean responsibilities in the War on Terror. In - and defense spending. Sea between Greece and Turkey, and the deed, we sometimes forget that we are in a In the end, the problem of national secu- historically vulnerable eastern-European global conflict with radical Islamists who rity in a time of budget restraint is not so borderlands that abut Russia. The U.S. most recently have attempted to kill thou- much about defense spending per se; military hunts down al-Qaeda from the sands of Americans in the New York sub- instead, it lies in two other areas. First, we horn of Africa to South America, fights the way system, in Times Square, and on both must establish our global responsibilities Somali pirates, organizes tsunami relief in passenger and freight planes. in the context of our fiscal limitations, and Indonesia, facilitates aid to earthquake- The failures of these planned operations fund our military to fulfill the ensuing stricken Haiti, and keeps sea lanes open are attributable in part to stepped-up mili- obligations. At present, defense spending from the China Sea to the Persian Gulf. tary intelligence, the elimination of thou- is increasingly not synchronized with a These costly deterrent and humanitarian sands of terrorists in Af ghan i stan and Iraq, clear and understandable strategic mis- efforts save lives and build goodwill—and and the ongoing targeting of terrorists by sion. Sec ond, we must grow the economy. many of them either would not occur or drone attacks in the badlands of Pakistan, Our defense capability improved radically would be taken up by less conciliatory Somalia, Sudan, and Yemen. But this does in the last 30 years without a great leap powers should we cut back the current not show that conventional weapons are in expenditures as a percentage of GDP, NEWSCOM / military budget. unnecessary. As personnel costs and the simply because GDP grew at such a rapid
ZUMA Third, much of the Pentagon budget is clip. But unless we continue to expand / prices of weapons systems skyrocket, we spent on military personnel—at least $150 are forced to buy fewer planes and vehi- the pie, there will be fights over the size of billion—including college education and cles. Those economies increase both the the slices. A healthy economy is the best
SPACE IMAGING vocational training. After 20 years as a per-unit cost of acquisition and the hours national-security measure of all.
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Blue Collars, Red Voters Ronald Reagan articulated the principles that must underlie a lasting conservative majority
BY HENRY OLSEN
eSS than two years after a Time magazine cover pro- then-young Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) claimed Republicans an “endangered Species,” the GOP holding its fourth convention, he proclaimed that “the principles is back in black. With its largest number of House seats and values that lie at the heart of conservatism are shared by the L since the election of 1946 and its largest number of state majority.” This majority comprised more than Republicans and legislative seats since 1928, the Republican party seems to have independents concerned about the economy; it included “blue- repopulated its native environment. collar, ethnic, and religious groups themselves traditionally asso- Questions lurk underneath this phoenix-like rebirth. Who com- ciated with the Democratic party” who focused on “so-called poses the newly emerged Republican majority? How can this social issues.” coalition be transformed from one defined by its opposition to Reagan argued that these groups could form not merely an Obama into one defined by its support of a coherent set of prin - alliance but “one politically effective whole.” They could do this ciples and policies? What principles and policies can bind these because they adhered to a shared set of values that ultimately Americans together into a group with a common identity and derived from one core principle, the primacy of human freedom. make one out of many? Arguing from this principle, conservatives could contend that Articles addressing these questions typically look at the government needed to be limited in its scope, in order to create the American people as ingredients in a demographic recipe. But sphere inside which individuals, families, and voluntary associa- such an approach inevitably falls short, because it lacks the most tions could act for the betterment of adults, children, and the com- important ingredient: principle. So I’m going to start where munity. Since government existed to protect freedom, it needed to Ronald Reagan did when he considered the question of how to be energetic in the defense of human rights, whether at home or in build a renewed Republican party, with a discussion of conserva- the then-paramount conflict with the Soviet Union. Housed in a tive principle. Republican party that would be “the party of the individual,” con- Go back to Reagan’s 66th birthday, Feb. 6, 1977. If you thought servatives could show Americans that “modern conservatism offers the death knell had been sounded for conservatism after 2008, you them a political home.” clearly did not live through 1976. Reagan had lost the GOP nomi- Now come back to 2010. We’ve just fought an election that was nation, and President Ford had been defeated by a fresh face who focused on the question of human freedom to a degree not seen promised hope to a discouraged nation, Jimmy Carter. What’s more, since 1980. The Tea Party arose to defend freedom and persuade its the Republicans had been reduced to a mere 143 seats in the House fellow citizens that freedom was at risk. Opposition to Obamacare’s and 38 in the Senate, many of which were held by men well to individual mandate was based on Reagan’s maxim that “liberty can the left of Olympia Snowe and Susan Collins. be measured by how much freedom Americans have to make their Reagan, however, saw what the others could not. Addressing a own decisions, even their own mistakes.” Poll after poll showed that those who voted Republican did so because they had been persuad- Mr. Olsen is vice president of the American Enterprise Institute and director of its ed that the administration and Congress were making government
National Research Initiative. too large and spending too much. The result was a historic victory. DARREN GYGI
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*THESE STATEMENTS HAVE NOT BEEN EVALUATED BY THE FDA. THESE PRODUCTS ARE NOT INTENDED TO DIAGNOSE, TREAT, CURE OR PREVENT ANY DISEASE. RESULTS MAY VARY. election-2col_QXP-1127940309.qxp 11/9/2010 10:00 PM Page 46
Election 2010 NR SPECIAL
2010 resembled 1980 in more than the centrality of freedom to Security, and Medicare because they believe these enable them to the electoral debate; the GOP majority came from exactly the same be more secure and provide for their children’s future. They oppose sources as those foreseen by Reagan in 1977. Republicans won the exorbitant taxation of the rich, but they also oppose measures economically conservative suburbs, home now to half of American they perceive as enabling the rich to treat them as mere pawns in a voters, by twelve points. They won independents by 18 points, a global economic game. Profits, yes, but people too. huge swing from 2006, when the Democrats carried them by rough- Some might think that support for these concerns is inconsis - ly the same margin. They received 54 percent of the Catholic vote, tent with conservative principle. I don’t, and neither did Ronald rising to a record-high 59 percent among white Catholics. And they Reagan. He always expressed support for a safety net, and in his carried America’s white working class by a record 29 points, even 1977 speech he said that “government must . . . be compassionate winning such hard-core Democratic working-class districts as in caring for those citizens who are unable to care for themselves.” Minnesota’s 8th (Jim Oberstar) and Illinois’s 17th (Phil Hare), Reagan loved liberty, but he was no libertarian. which had not voted Republican for president in decades. George W. Bush’s “compassionate conservatism” was an attempt to implement this Reaganesque vision, but it did not succeed polit- ically for two reasons. First, its ambitions were transformative, not uPeRFICIAlly, then, the task before the GOP seems easy. By reformative. Seeking to leave no child behind and leave no senior running against the liberal excesses of the last two years, without the prescription drugs he wants is a laudable goal, but in S today’s Republicans can simply recreate the coalition of practice it entailed giving the federal government power to act with economically conservative suburbanites and socially conservative minimal concern for cost or feasibility. Therefore, traditional eco- working-class voters that reelected Reagan in 1984 and elected nomic conservatives felt out of place in a coalition dominated by George H. W. Bush in 1988. This view is incomplete, however, in “compassionate conservative” thinking. Today, the Tea Party might that it fails to address a key development since Reagan’s speech rail primarily against earmarks, but the out-of-control federal spend- that makes such a simple reconstruction difficult. ing the movement complains about is directly the result of the cost That development is the failure of many of Reagan’s heirs to of enacting compassionate-conservative measures. fully understand the working-class half of the new majority. Second, the object of compassionate conservatism’s ambitions Reagan forcefully argued that his new Republican party would was the poor, not the working class. Today’s working class is doing have room for the “man and the woman in the factories, for the well but under many pressures. Its members would like to see lead- farmer, for the cop on the beat.” It would achieve this “not by sim- ers who at least try to understand how they struggle to maintain ply ‘making room’ for them, but by making certain they have a say their middle-class lifestyle in the face of downsizing, offshoring, in what goes on in the party.” and other features of modern economic life. Compassionate con- By the early 1990s, though, it was clear that many working- servatism’s rhetoric and imagery were directed almost exclusively class voters felt they did not have this say. Some blame must be at “the least among us,” the urban poor child trapped in a bad pub- laid upon then-president Bush, whose tax increases and patrician lic school, the prisoner seeking reentry to mainstream life, those air led working-class conservatives to revolt twice against his addicted to drugs or alcohol. Working-class voters wanted to help leadership, first in Pat Buchanan’s primary challenge and again in these people, but they wanted attention and help too. support of Ross Perot. But if that had been the only reason for dis- Failure to fully appreciate these sentiments led to the continua- cord, the working class would have returned to the GOP later in tion of the longstanding belief among working-class, and particu- the decade. They did to some extent in the South, although even larly ethnic-minority, Americans that conservative Republicans there many continued to elect Democrats to Congress. But else- did not care about their lives. This is an old caricature that has where they often did not, leading to Clinton’s reelection, Gore’s bedeviled conservatives since the Great Depression. Reagan him- popular-vote victory, George W. Bush’s close reelection, and the self noted it when he observed that Republicans were, “for reasons narrow GOP majorities in Congress. both fair and unfair,” burdened with a “country club–big business These northern and midwestern ethnic, often Catholic, voters felt image” that his modern conservatism was meant to dispel. out of place in the GOP in part because it did not seem to appreci- Conservatives have always bristled at this image. I’ve been ate their lives. Ronald Reagan had warned his heirs in that 1977 involved in conservative circles for over 30 years, and I’ve never talk that they “must be able to communicate [conservative] princi- failed to observe an instinctive reaction from my friends when the ples to the American people in language they understand.” The new “uncaring” label is hung around their necks. Conservatives do care American conservative majority should not be “based on abstract about more than themselves and profits. Our very involvement in theorizing of the kind that turns off the American people.” But politics is motivated by caring concern that lives will be impover- not everyone listened. Too often, some conservatives’ defenses of ished by a government that, with the best of intentions, treats too freedom and the market have seemed to be just the sort of abstract many citizens as incompetent mendicants and chokes off the theorizing that “ignor[es] the realities of everyday life.” entrepreneurial growth that alone lets the least among us get up For the working class, those realities include a hope for the and walk. It’s time we stop keeping our true nature to ourselves future but also a fear about the present. As I argued at length in a and let others see us as we are. recent essay for NATIONAl RevIeW ONlINe titled “Day of the Democratic Dead” (Nov. 1, 2010), working-class Americans are very conscious of their tenuous place in the middle class. They sup- Aul, in his First letter to the Corinthians, wrote of “faith, port free enterprise because it enables them to rise economically hope, and love,” and said that “the greatest of these three and make use of their God-given talents, but they also support P is love.” The love that Paul speaks of is patient and kind, mass-welfare-state measures like free public education, Social neither envious, nor boastful, nor proud. It is not something one
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does for another person out of a sense of noblesse oblige. It is something one does for another person as an equal, concerned about the other’s well-being as one is concerned about one’s own. When applied to politics, this spirit of love motivates policy that Toward the aims to build people up, rather than condescending down in the name of charity. Consider, for example, the Republican Congress’s greatest domestic-policy achievement: welfare reform. Conserva - PRECIPICE tives genuinely loved the poor, and knew that the Aid to Families with Dependent Children program was a millstone around the necks A divided government faces a budget crisis of poor single women. They reformed the program not simply to save money, as their critics suggested, but to save lives. It worked, BY WILLIAM VOEGELI and the principles behind welfare reform can be applied to welfare- state programs that mainly serve the working class. The reform of our welfare state is the great policy challenge of oME January, America will have a Democratic presi- our time. It’s important in part because of our looming fiscal cri- dent and a Republican Speaker of the House of sis, but if “reform” is only a code word for “cut,” we shall not suc- Representatives, a rare configuration in the 150-plus ceed. Americans will trust us with this task only if we can show C years that there has been a Republican party. There them what we already believe, that we want to reform Social were Republican House majorities during Democratic admin - Security, Medicare, and public education not merely to save istrations for two years after the 1894, 1918, and 1946 midterm money, but to create the best possible conditions for all to live elections, and for six years after the 1994 midterms. joyful lives—in short, that we are motivated by love. In 2011, only the memory of the acrimonious cohabitation This fulfillment of Reagan’s dream will create a renewed after 1994 will matter. The Republican speaker who took the Repub lican party. It will cement the loyalty of the working class gavel after that election had famously disparaged a leading sen- and attract the economically mobile suburbanite. It will deliver a ator from his own party as the “tax collector for the welfare growing economy whose tide will lift all boats, and it will restore state.” Republicans swept to power in 1994 clearly dedicated fiscal sanity without violating our national promises. to the mission Ronald Reagan proclaimed 13 years earlier, to At first the new Republican majority will be much like our sup- “curb the size and influence of the federal establishment.” porters on November 2, concentrated primarily among whites. Moreover, the Democratic president startled the nation, espe- But as members of ethnic minorities see that our faith in freedom cially politicians in his own party, by declaring in the 1996 State and our love are real, many of them will join our cause. This will of the Union address that “the era of big government is over.” be true particularly if we follow Reagan’s advice that the new Knowing this much, it would have been plausible for the wel- Republican party not be “based on a principle of exclusion.” In fare state to do something in the 1990s it had never done since this time of immigration and assimilation, we should take the New Deal: shrink. While that expectation may not have Reagan’s words to heart: “You do not get to be a majority party by been far-fetched, it did turn out to be wrong. Adjusted for infla- searching for groups you won’t associate or work with.” tion, per capita federal outlays on the five big categories that This shift will accelerate as minorities see genuine conservative dominate the office of Management and Budget’s “human leaders like Marco Rubio and Susana Martinez, Nikki Haley and resources” programs—Social Security; all other income sup- Bobby Jindal, Allen West and Tim Scott, being treated as equals port programs; Medicare; all other health programs; and all and not tokens. Already election polls show that Rubio and education, job-training, and social-service programs—were 7 Martinez attracted nearly 40 percent of non-Cuban Hispanics, percent higher in 2001, the last fiscal year shaped by the Clinton well above the normal. Forty percent of Asians also voted for administration, than they had been in 1995, the final one before Republicans; this number will surely rise in the coming years if the GoP Congress. we renew our movement in line with what Reagan intended. It wasn’t just the political circumstances of the 1990s that Even in 1977, Reagan saw that conservatives had already moved seemed to favor the reduction of the welfare state. The eco- mountains. He noted that in the mid-1960s, two-thirds of Amer - nomic circumstances were favorable, too. The dot.com boom, icans believed government could solve all problems, but that as he before it turned into the dot.com bust, drove incomes up and spoke two-thirds no longer believed this. Today’s polls show that unemployment down, causing spending on “automatic stabi- those mountains keep moving. This year’s exit poll showed a lizers” like unemployment compensation and food stamps to significant increase in the number of voters who call themselves fall. Demography should have helped as well, since the people conservative, even while it showed no significant increase in signing up in the 1990s for the two biggest welfare-state the number calling themselves Republican. programs, Social Security and Medicare, were the ones born Reagan concluded his speech by reminding us that a political during the Depression—and baby bust—of the 1930s. As life party is merely a structure created to further a cause. “The cause, expectancy increased, the proportion of the American popula- not the mechanism, brings and holds its members together.” There tion aged 65 or over grew from 8.1 percent in 1950 to 12.6 is no reason a renewed Republican party, rededicated to the cause percent in 1990. Even though life expectancy continued to of freedom and reanimated by the spirit of love, cannot bring America’s natural majority together into America’s natural major- Mr. Voegeli, a contributing editor of The Claremont Review of Books, is the ity party. And if we do that, America surely will be, as Reagan said, author of Never Enough: America’s Limitless Welfare State and a “as a city upon on a hill, with the eyes of all people upon us.” visiting scholar at Claremont McKenna College’s Salvatori Center.
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increase after 1990, the proportion of Americans at least 65 President Obama and Speaker Boehner will face a set of cir- years old declined slightly, to 12.4 percent in 2000. cumstances that are far more daunting than the ones that con- It turned out that the welfare state expanded in the 1990s less fronted President Clinton and Speaker Gingrich. It’s hard to because it needed to than because it could. Relative to gross imagine the economy regaining its balance, much less display- domestic product, total federal outlays actually decreased ing the vigor of the 1990s, before the nation endures several during the decade, from 21.9 percent in 1990 to 18.2 percent more years of deleveraging. Making impossible a breather in 2000. Adjusted for inflation, however, per capita GDP was from rising entitlement costs like the one the nation enjoyed 22.8 percent higher in 2000 than it had been in 1990. The fed- that decade, the oldest of the 77 million baby boomers started eral government was spending a somewhat smaller slice of a enrolling in Social Security in 2008 and will become eligible significantly larger pie. for Medicare in 2011. Americans born between 1946 and 1964 Furthermore, the federal government was laying claim to a will continue swelling the ranks of those programs’ beneficia- lesser portion of the national income mostly because of defense- ries for the next 20 years. Finally, it’s highly doubtful that the spending cuts after the end of the Cold War, not because of world will be, anytime soon, the safe neighborhood some sup- welfare-state reductions. The Reagan rearmament program posed it was between 1989 and 2001. Adjusted for inflation, peaked in the late 1980s. In 1986 the federal government spent defense spending was 20 percent higher in 2009 than in 1989. 6.2 percent of GDP on national defense. That proportion began Given the world’s dangers, the architects of a military draw- to decline during “glasnost,” even while Reagan was still in down like the one in the 1990s would be guilty of gross negli- office and the Berlin Wall was still intact. It fell to 5.2 percent of gence. GDP in 1990 and 3.0 percent in 2000. Leaving GDP percentages The felicitous coincidence of a surging economy, a respite aside, inflation-adjusted defense spending peaked in 1989, the from growing entitlement payments, and declining military last fiscal year of the Reagan administration, and declined by outlays created budget surpluses in the late 1990s that took the 28 percent over the following decade. nation and its leaders by surprise. One result of the surpluses, When the welfare state doesn’t grow because it must, it grows because it can.
By contrast, federal outlays on the five human-resources cat- recounted by the historian Steven Gillon in his 2008 book The egories named above were 10.3 percent of GDP in 1990 and Pact, was that Bill Clinton and Newt Gingrich began laying 10.9 percent in 2000, and averaged 11.6 percent of GDP from the groundwork in 1997 for sweeping reforms to Social 1991 through 2000. Even with the conservatives’ biggest Security and Medicare. The talks, held in secret to avoid out- domestic-policy triumph of that decade, the replacement of Aid raging each one’s partisans, progressed far enough to produce to Families with Dependent Children by the non-entitlement a framework before the Monica Lewinsky story broke in Temporary Assistance for Needy Families program, overall January 1998, ending the negotiations before the participants welfare-state spending was larger at the end of the 1990s, both had fashioned a true deal. in absolute terms and relative to the size of the economy, than Even so, the framework is noteworthy. Gillon reports that it had been at the beginning. President Clinton was prepared to antagonize his liberal base Federal spending on everything else, from farm subsidies to by accepting entitlement-policy changes strikingly similar to the National Zoo—that is, everything but national defense the ones advocated today in Rep. Paul Ryan’s “Roadmap.” and human resources—amounted to relatively little. It aver- Social Security’s retirement age would have been raised, and aged about one-fourth of federal outlays in the 1990s, or its cost-of-living adjustment lowered; workers would have roughly 5 percent of GDP. In 2009, it accounted for 22.6 per- been given the option to direct some of their payroll taxes into cent of all federal outlays, and 5.6 percent of GDP. private retirement accounts. Medicare would have been modi- fied into, or at least in the direction of, a defined-contribution program that helped people purchase public or private health HE pattern, as I have argued in my recent book Never insurance. Speaker Gingrich was prepared to antagonize his Enough, is indeed that when the welfare state doesn’t conservative base by agreeing to postpone consideration of T grow because it must, it grows because it can. any tax cuts that returned budget surpluses to the people until Throughout the world, left-of-center politicians and intellectu- after the entitlement reforms had been enacted. als react to economic downturns by insisting on more govern- It was never certain, or even probable, that these ambitions ment spending to assist the afflicted. When the economy is could have been achieved on Capitol Hill by what Gillon strong, on the other hand, their dramatically different position called a “60-percent coalition made up of moderates in both is to insist on more government spending to address “unmet parties.” It’s significant that Erskine Bowles, President Clin - social needs.” One needn’t be a cynic to suspect that these left- ton’s chief of staff in 1997 and a key facilitator of the clandes- ists have been less than zealous in their efforts to determine the tine entitlement-reform talks, is now the co-chairman, with size of a welfare state that’s exactly the size it needs to be, and former Republican senator Alan Simpson, of the National doesn’t need any expansion. Commission on Fiscal Responsibility and Reform. (Most press
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accounts refer to it, more simply, as the Bowles-Simpson tax increases that would be necessary to balance the budget Commission.) In the event, also by no means certain, that the without any spending cuts. Liberals and conservatives are both Commission can round up 14 votes from its 18 members for a hoping that intransigence will be rewarded in the end. Liberals series of recommendations on tax and spending policy, it will believe that when voters reckon with the spending cuts neces- issue its report in December. sary to make the conservative fiscal approach work, they will The happy circumstances—economic, demographic, and accede to a policy based overwhelmingly on higher taxes. geopolitical—that yielded budget surpluses and high-level Conservatives believe that when voters realize the magnitude talks about entitlement reform 13 years ago have all deterio- of the tax increases necessary for the liberal approach to work, rated, forming today’s perfect storm for fiscal-policy makers. they will swing decisively to the position that spending cuts are The prospect of surpluses then meant that the quid pro quo for the lesser evil. cutting entitlement spending would have been postponing and In the event neither side gets its way decisively, the resolu- limiting tax cuts. That package would have been hard to sell, tion will be a combination of spending cuts and tax increases, politically. The prospect in 2010 of federal deficits that aver- either in the near future as a matter of choice, or later on in a age $1 trillion a year for the next decade, and raise the federal desperate attempt to cope with a dire necessity like the one that debt to a level nearly equal to the gross domestic product by befell Greece this year. Conservatives, dedicated to the success 2020, means that the concessions needed to make a deal are of the American experiment in self-government, have every going to involve spending cuts and tax increases. reason to prevent the nation from descending into insolvency That combination of measures, with something to infuriate or mutating into a European social democracy. That obligation everyone, is going to be even harder to assemble and sell. The is not sufficiently discharged by insisting, against the weight of chances of finding enough votes to assemble a 60 or even a 51 evidence from the past three decades, that tax cuts will pay for percent coalition are surely lower in 2010 than they were in themselves, either by igniting economic growth or by forcing 1997. Following leaks that the Bowles-Simpson commission spending cuts. to reduce the federal debt has been considering a mix of The demands of conservative statesmanship in this situation entitlement reductions and tax increases, liberal bloggers call for making good governance possible by practicing smart denounced the “cat-food commission” and the “Social politics assiduously. Every solid argument against more spend- Security death panel.” Many conservatives, by the same token, ing and more borrowing should be brought to bear, so that have stated that proposals for any tax increases are non- higher taxes or dangerous debts do not become the default starters. option. Adversaries are supposed to make concessions during nego- Here’s one argument: Conservatives would do well, by their tiations, rather than before and outside them. Maybe these cause and their country, to emphasize that the fact that a unalterable positions are the kind of non-negotiable demands historical pattern is predominant—modern economies grow that savvy politicians make in the understanding that they’ll steadily, and their welfare states grow even faster—doesn’t wind up getting altered as talks get serious. Between the rise of make it right or wise. As a nation grows richer, it should at the Netroots and the Tea Party since Bill Clinton and Newt some point begin to devote a decreasing rather than increasing Gingrich held their wary discussions, however, it’s clear that portion of its GDP to welfare-state spending. the determination not to yield has grown considerably stronger America is rich enough to have spent more inflation-adjusted on both sides. dollars on national defense in 2009 than we did in 1968 with 500,000 troops in Vietnam, even though we are devoting half as much of our GDP to national defense now as we were then. S a conservative, I’m completely sympathetic to the Had our defense policy been driven by the relentless quest to idea that America’s fiscal challenges should be re - address and if necessary discover “unmet military needs,” we A solved through spending cuts rather than tax increas- would still be spending roughly the same percentage of GDP es. Bending the growth curve of federal outlays until they meet on national defense that we did at the height of the wars in tax revenues that remain constant as a percentage of GDP is, Vietnam (9.4 percent) and Korea (14.2 percent). We would, for example, the essence of the Ryan Roadmap. But the num- in other words, be spending hundreds of billions of dollars bers have to work. In America’s grave fiscal circumstances, a pointlessly. zero-tolerance policy on tax increases is governmentally ten- Military spending has been constrained because it corre- able only if the dollars are there, if the politically feasible sponds to objective conditions in the world beyond our shores. spending cuts are of sufficient size to steer the nation away The objective conditions, domestically, are that long-term eco- from insolvency without higher taxes. This means it’s politi- nomic growth enhances the ability of more people to spend cally tenable only if the votes are there, in Congress and the more of their lives providing for more of their own health care, country, for budget cuts of that magnitude. education, and welfare through their own resources and pre- Right now, the votes are not there. According to a New York cautions. Such prosperity should allow a welfare state to shrink Times poll from earlier this year, three-quarters of Americans relative to the size of the economy, even while growing in believe “the benefits from government programs such as absolute terms, if needed, to assist the truly needy. By apply- Social Security and Medicare are worth the costs of those pro- ing the same logic to welfare spending that we do to military grams.” Three-fifths of the people who express support for the spending, in other words, we can avoid the taxes and the Tea Party movement share that belief. borrowing that would change America irrevocably, and for Neither are the votes there for the large and widely applied the worse.
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The Bent Pin BY FLORENCE KING Unbalanced
n baseball you can’t tell the players without a score- ing things through. A little insight is a dangerous thing; it card, but in political commentary you need a metaphor. might reveal something you do not want to know or admit, As intellectually destitute as it was, the midterm cam- so they rejected it out of hand as passivity: thought instead of I paign now blessedly drawn to a close did not come up action, that dreaded intellectual approach to ideas that signals short in this department. It promises to be trampled by the elitists are at the gates. To avoid it, they disabled their Y metaphors. It will end up at the bottom of a pile of flailing gyroscopes and held forth loudly and volubly about what’s metaphors all yelling “Lemme at it!” Future historians look- bothering them without saying what’s bothering them. ing for a catchy book title will find such an embarrassment of Ask them about the unbridgeable conflict between metaphorical riches in it that they will evolve on the spot and “Every body’s equal” and “Everybody’s special” and it never form a brand-new genus of mankind: happy intellectuals. occurs to them that you might be even more conservative The metaphor that comes immediately to mind for De - than they are; all they know is that you are challenging them. cision 2010 is “the barbarians are at the gates,” a flawless Ask them whether they think the word “bi-racial” now description of the many candidates and their supporters who beginning to be applied to Obama is the first step in a future have spent the past year bragging about how dumb and low- racial caste system and you will never get an answer because class they are. Then there are the “storm” entries—“the calm as soon as they find out that “caste” is something like “elite” before” and “the eye of”—and even a metaphorical pun: they will hop on their Segways and start repossessing their “The house of ill dispute.” But I found one that really does country again. say something about Decision 2010 in particular and our per- This is nothing new. Before there was a Tea Party, ishing republic in general. My metaphor of choice is “riding American politics underwent regular crashes from the glitch- the Segway.” es in Tea Party–style thinking. A decade ago, former Clinton The Segway motorized scooter was named after an edito- cabinet member Donna Shalala triggered a Ride of the rial term, properly spelled “segue,” meaning a smooth tran- Segways of Wagnerian proportions when she said we hadn’t sition from one topic or paragraph to another. The Segway sent “the best and the brightest” to Vietnam. She was giving scooter was designed with the same goal: As the reader is the phrase the sardonic twist given it by David Halberstam eased around the potholes of the mind, so shall the rider be in his book of that title charging that it was the exalted eased around real ones and set on a smooth path. Kennedy-administration patriciate that got us into the Segway has a great deal in common with the U.S. Con - Vietnam mess in the first place. But literal-minded people stitution. Their software glitches are legendary. One caused never notice sardonic twists, especially ones in book titles. the scooter to spontaneously reverse and dump the rider. The The Tea Party element of that day howled, “Where’s the out- original turning mechanism, called “lean steer,” was a long rage!” and accused Shalala of calling the U.S. military a flat handle that sounds like what the Titanic helmsman home for losers. thought he had hold of instead of a wheel, so that he thought The GOP is now in the grip of an eerie ménage à trois he was turning right when he was really turning left. The consisting of Sarah Palin, Sharron Angle, and Christine whole vehicle was a mass of gyroscopic sensors, signals, and O’Donnell. Think of the Three Fates on Segways and you’ve distracting flashing signs that, like constitutional amend- got it. Mama Sarah has turned her children into our new gross ments, kept issuing empty promises of “balance enabled.” national product and installed so many glitches in the English no sooner did they fix one thing than something else went language that “orange” now rhymes with everything. Sharron wrong, but they kept fiddling with it until, in September Angle’s mania for privatizing something, any thing, has the 2006, of the 23,500 Segways sold over the preceding four governor of Virginia trying to sell the state liquor stores, and and a half years, all 23,500 were recalled. Christine O’Donnell, the right-handmaiden of the starry The mayhem that was Decision 2010 resembled an epi - sisterhood, comes with a halo-shaped monitor that flashes a sode on Operation Repo when the team tried to repossess continuous message of “balance disabled.” Brace yourselves several Segways from a sightseeing outfit, and the repo guys, for constitutional lurches and spills if Republicans ride their who can drive anything, could not control the lurching scoot- Segways to the end of the line. ers and kept getting thrown off them like faux cowboys try- I’ll say one thing for Decision 2010: At least it livened up ing to ride an enraged brahma bull. When Tea Partiers rode the Internet. Before, links were long symbol-cluttered guide- forth on their Segways to repossess their country, the lurches lines in tasteful blue, but now Google puts punchy references were philosophical. To present themselves as an informed in simple black and white lists: citizenry, they went along with the who, what, where, and when of the journalistic lede, but they balked at why. Deni - Searches related to Rick Sanchez idiot. zens of respectability and repression underneath their rage, Rick Sanchez moron they recoiled from the threatening cerebral practice of think- Anderson Cooper idiot Wolf Blitzer idiot Florence King can be reached at P.O. Box 7113, Fredericksburg, VA 22404. Lou Dobbs idiot
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The Long View BY ROB LONG
POTUS: You know what? I’m sorry I POTUS: I’ve never had one of those. called. Goodbye. BILL CLINTON: Seriously? Seriously? BILL CLINTON: No, no. Wait. Please. POTUS: Oh, sure, I’ve had disap- NatioNal I’m sorry. I was just funnin’ with you. pointments. I’m here for you. Okay? Don’t get BILL CLINTON: For instance? Security mad. POTUS: Well, I was a little disap- ageNcy POTUS: Okay. Look. I just want to pointed not to have won more elec- hear how you handled it. When you toral votes in 2008. POTUS COMMUNICATION lost the House and it looked like your BILL CLINTON: You kill me. That’s it? SUrveILLANCe whole agenda was going to be stalled, That’s the trouble with you, amigo. TrANSCrIPT staff morale was low, what did you You’ve got no stink on you. By the do? time I was in your shoes, you know BEGIN EXTRACT 12:03:55 BILL CLINTON: Yeah. Tough times. I how many butts I’d kissed? How hear you. Well, I guess the first thing many cow pies I’d eaten? [Static. ringing.] I’d ask is, what’s your usual way of POTUS: Why is that necessary? UNIDENTIFIED MALE VOICE: Y’hello? dealing with setbacks? BILL CLINTON: Why? It’s training, POTUS: Bill? It’s Barack Obama. POTUS: Not following you. my friend. Training for this moment UNIDENTIFIED MALE VOICE: Hey! BILL CLINTON: I mean, okay, for me, I right here. The voters baked you a Greetings, Mr. President. eat a dozen doughnuts and a couple of pie. You’d best start eating it. POTUS: Did I call at a bad time? pizzas and cry for a couple of hours POTUS: To be fair, this isn’t really a UNIDENTIFIED MALE VOICE: No, no. and have a cheeseburger and pick up a me thing. The voters didn’t reject my Hey, it’s always a good time around couple of girls and then get some fried policies. We just didn’t communicate here. Just a sec. Can you hold on a chicken. Then I get everyone together well enough about the things we ac - second? and yell at them for a while until my complished. The voters were con- POTUS: Sure. throat hurts and then I feel guilty and fused and angry and were, frankly, not UNIDENTIFIED MALE VOICE: No, not have some ice cream and then make a well informed about the size of the— you, Mr. President. I was talking to . . . list of people to fire, do that, take a BILL CLINTON: Hey, stop. Okay? Stop Honey, baby, can you give me a mo- nap, have a couple of Snickers bars right there. I’ve got to be honest ment here? Just get some cashews and a steak sandwich and by then I with you. I’ve got this hotel suite for from the minibar and I’ll be right feel better. What’s your process? another couple of hours—I’m com- there. Can you hand me a Fiji water, POTUS: Good Lord. You eat all that? ing, baby, you just enjoy the cashews baby? Thanks. Okay. Just let me . . . BILL CLINTON: Yeah, sure. I mean, it’s and chill—and I don’t really want to um . . . put some stuff . . . back where over several hours, so it’s not like I’m sit here and listen to what you’re say- . . . it belongs . . . and . . . okay. I’m just sitting there in a pile of food. ing to MSNBC, okay? You want to back, Mr. President. What can I do Mostly. turn this stuff around, you’ve got to for you? POTUS: No wonder you have heart start with the man in the mirror. POTUS: Well, Bill, as you know, our trouble. POTUS: But this isn’t about me. side took a beating last week. And BILL CLINTON: You’ve got a better BILL CLINTON: Okay, pal. It’s not about I’m reaching out to you because you system? I’m all ears. you. It’s about some other guy in the experienced the same thing in 1994. POTUS: I prefer to deal with things by White House. Look, I’m a little busy BILL CLINTON: Not quite as bad. sitting quietly and bottling up my here—don’t press that button, sugar, POTUS: Depends on how you look at rage. we don’t need to buy a movie—so why it. BILL CLINTON: And you think I’m the don’t we talk later, when whoever this BILL CLINTON: Let’s not quibble. one with the heart trouble? C’mon! midterm was about can come to the You’re reaching out to me, which you What do you do when everything just phone? haven’t done before, and I get it. This goes south on you? POTUS: Wait. I just— is hard for you, isn’t it? POTUS: I . . . well, I don’t know what BILL CLINTON: Hey, baby, come over POTUS: No, it’s not. I do. here to papa and— BILL CLINTON: Come on. This is BILL CLINTON: What does that mean? [Click. Static.] killing you! Asking for advice? From What have you done in the past when me? This . . . is . . . killing . . . you! you’ve had a setback? END EXTRACT 12:11:04
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Hope). Many of John Paul II’s closest ance sheet of his pontificate is complicat- friends were murdered by the nazis, for ed, and is presented in this book with For God hiding Jews and other hunted innocents, scrupulous fairness. The Church itself and the tradition of suffering and martyr- generally flourished. There were twice as And Man dom was a vivid and intimate experience many Roman Catholics in the world for him. This was one of the reasons that when the pope died as when he was elect- CONRAD BLACK he beatified 1,338 Servants of God, 1,032 ed, and the acute crises of recruitment of them martyrs, and canonized 482 abated appreciably, though not altogether. new saints, of whom 402 were martyrs; The talk of schism and erosion in the adding significantly to the 302 saints that agnostic secular media, which for over had been canonized since the process a century have regarded the Roman was inaugurated in its present, relatively Church as a primitive and saturnine bum- routine form in 1588. His view of the blebee defying all laws of nature and world and of man’s fate was stern, but surely destined to fall down, was moder- it was not grim: He believed that life ated, and they came, generally, to address was “cruciform,” that suffering was the the subject in less disdainful and funereal inescapable lot of all, but that life was terms. no less capable of providing happiness, His role in defeating Communism was accomplishment, and nobility for that. seminal and on the scale of President The End and the Beginning: Pope John Paul II— There was much sadness in the world, but Reagan’s. He destabilized the regimes in The Victory of Freedom, the Last Years, the Legacy, none of it needed be purposeless, and Poland and in nicaragua, and cooperated by George Weigel (Doubleday, all fates were appealable through spiri - closely with the United States in mobiliz- 608 pp., $32.95) tu ality. As pope, John Paul II prayed ing discontent among the more than 100 intensely, every day, for dozens of suppli- million Roman Catholics behind the Iron n this book, George Weigel main- cants seeking relief from illness, bereave- Curtain. He had the traditional skepti- tains the very high standard he has ment, or other ailments of the world. He cism of the Pole toward the Soviet Union, long achieved of presenting con- took on these causes as his own, and there compounded by both moral and practical I troversial Roman Catholic sub- were many documented, happy outcomes. contempt for the brutality and inefficien- jects with the sympathy and insight of a He is even reliably credited with two cy of Communism as he had seen and committed adherent and the balance and exorcisms. It is little wonder that he is grappled with it in Poland for a third of a rigor of an eminent scholar and histor - widely regarded, even by very sober peo- century. He scrapped the policy, adopted ian. There will doubtless be herniating ple, as a miraculous figure. by Paul VI, of appeasement of the East in masses of further documentation pub- He was pope for longer than anyone exchange for certain concessions. lished on every phase of the subject’s except St. Peter (34 or 37 years) and Pius He was largely responsible for a dras- 27-year papacy. And there will be more IX (32 years). His output of 14 encycli- tic change in the perception of the abor- elaborate discussions of the vast subjects cals, 14 apostolic exhortations, and many tion issue, especially in the U.S., from a John Paul II grappled with as he tried other messages, speeches, and homilies matter of the right of control of a woman to reconcile Catholic Christian faith with fills twelve feet of shelf space. His 1,164 over her own body to a matter about the destabilizing influences of the En - general audiences were attended by near- equally of the protection of the rights of light enment, and the relativism and the ly 18 million people (an impressive aver- the unborn and most defenseless, vulner- temptations of gratification, that have age of over 15,000 every Wednesday for able, and innocent people. He positively assaulted modern Catholicism. But there decades, indoors and out), and he was made over the relationship of the Holy is no reason to believe that any future personally seen, in his endless tours in the See with Israel, and of Roman Catholics account will give a more balanced view world (including to Azerbaijan, which officially with the Jews. His many ges- of what the future pope said in 1976 was had only 120 Roman Catholics), by tures in this regard—notably his visits to “a lively battle for the dignity of man.” the astonishing and completely unprece- Yad Vashem and the Western Wall, where Before settling down to his leisurely dented total of approximately 230 million he placed a prayer of forgiveness for account of the latter half of John Paul II’s people. His funeral was attended by 74 past wrongs against the Jews by all pontificate, Weigel executes a quick march heads of state and government, more Christians—were profoundly affecting, through the pope’s early years (already than the funerals of John F. Kennedy, and brought balm to the wounds of two covered in his 1999 volume Witness to Winston Churchill, Dwight D. Eisen- millennia. His preparation for the third hower, and Charles de Gaulle combined, millennium, and especially his sequence Mr. Black is the author of Franklin Delano along with almost a million members of of atonements for various wrongdoings Roosevelt: Champion of Freedom and the public. in the previous thousand years, and his Richard M. Nixon: A Life in Full. He can be His remarkable human qualities have jubilees celebrating relations with almost reached at [email protected]. never been seriously disputed. The bal- all occupations of people, had consider-
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able, and entirely positive, impact. And he tradition in Europe was also unsuccess- Special Savings on did much to foster a general perception ful. He warned Europe repeatedly of the Special Cotton Comforts that ecclesiastical issues were matters of hazards of a collapsed birthrate and of the reasoned opinion and not of mindless immigration of not-easily-assimilable Better Way To Sleep trendiness or hidebound obstinacy. He people in large numbers, but his effort to Pure Cotton Knit TeePJ’s ™ was, in his way, a feminist, but defined mobilize opinion was compromised by Tee-PJs are not ordinary the role of women otherwise than as his quixotic enthusiasm for making ill- nightshirts.They are quality made in the U.S.A. with a special being interchangeable with men. starred overtures to the Muslim clerisy. knit that moves as you move for He put the Church squarely behind The author is frank in lamenting the the ultimate in sleeping and the full range of democratic freedoms, Holy See’s exaggerated faith in interna- lounging comfort. the re sponsible market economy, and tional organizations, and its tendency to +No bind +No bunch the presence of a moral dimension in the blame all the ills of the Third World on +No buttons +No side seams Most comfortable sleeper you’ve organization and conduct of society. The the developed countries and to pro- ever worn or your money back! 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The pope moved late, and not 100% Cotton Knit SLEEP CAP and Paul VI’s socialistic reverence for decisively enough, in the child-abuse Holds in up to 40% of body heat economic planning, neither of which had scandal, though his disapproval of the the head can lose! Special knit “gives” to comfortably fit any head (man’s or woman’s); never constricts or binds… caresses your head with gentle warmth! George Weigel is frank in lamenting White, Soft Blue, Navy or Natural the Holy See’s tendency to blame $6.95or 3 for only $15.85 (Save $5) SUPER SAVINGS all the ills of the Third World on on this LUXURIOUS the developed countries. 100% COTTON TERRY ROBE for MEN & LADIES any chance of practical success, or even practices was appropriately severe. He WRAP YOURSELF serious implementation. seemed incapable of believing the priest- in the luxury of this super soft cotton Against these great accomplishments, hood capable of such depravity, just as he terry robe with the prolonged effort to unite Christians, seemed incapable of thinking that passive plush 14 ounce which John Paul II defined as making attachment to the right would not suc- terry cloth looped “the real but imperfect communion” ceed, opposite Islamic extremists, as it on both the inside shared by all Christians the basis for “a had against Polish Communism. and outside for greatest absorbency Petrine ministry that served everyone’s One of my few reservations about (not possible with needs,” made disappointingly little head- this analysis is that the author omits to lighter weight robes). way. It must be said that the notion that mention that the pope gave the store away Shawl collar style with the other churches, especially the various to the Vatican employees, and—in his full length sleeves plus Orthodox denominations, would accept en thusiasm for the Solidarity labor move- 3pocketsand BELOW KNEE LENGTH (48") the leadership of the papacy after more ment in Poland—was so generous to the COLORS: White or Soft Blue. SIZES to than 900 years of schism, and nearly 500 unskilled workers in the Vatican that he t 100 lbs.– 300 lbs. Specify man/lady & years since the Reformation, was a bit damaged its fiscal position, which had to height/weight. We’ll select the best size. unworldly. 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BOOKS, ARTS & MANNERS of sex changed, and the spectacle of sep- Before nemesis comes hubris, and in tuagenarian celibates enunciating a The - the case of Hawking and Mlodinow, that ology of the Body was bound to be seen Mad means a basic failure to grasp the philo- as questionable. The Holy See offers a sophical ideas they airily dismiss. Like the counsel of perfection, in the knowledge Scientists village atheist whose knowledge of theolo- that almost no one will follow it; its posi- gy derives from what he saw last Sunday on tion is further undercut by the bishops in EDWARD FESER The Jimmy Swaggart Telecast, our authors many countries, including the U.S. and assume that when philosophers have ar - Canada, whose opinion essentially is that gued for God as cause of the world, what the popes have spoken but the faithful they mean is that the universe had a begin- should resort to birth-control devices at ning, that God caused that beginning, and will if it serves their interests. The Holy that to rebut their position it suffices to ask See is going to have to either adapt or “What caused God?” But from Aristotle to retreat from a position that has been ren- Aquinas to Leibniz to the present day, most dered obsolete not so much by deteriorat- versions of the First Cause argument have ing mores as by the march of popularly not supposed that the universe had a begin- accessible science. And the Church will ning in time, and none of them is open to so have to do more for women: It can pro- The Grand Design, by Stephen Hawking simple a refutation. Their claim is rather vide them a more equal role (which is and Leonard Mlodinow (Bantam, that even if the universe were infinitely old, nonetheless not identical to that of men). 199 pp., $28) it is still the sort of thing that might in prin- This is not an issue that can be finessed ciple not have existed at all. That it does with papal encomia, however sincere, to HE English philosopher C. D. exist therefore requires explanation, and the distinct genius of the female. Broad once noted that “the non- this explanation cannot lie in some other Weigel also goes native for the Poles in sense written by philosophers thing that might in principle have failed to secular matters and mistakenly ascribes T on scientific matters is exceed- exist, since that would just raise the same the Soviet occupation of Poland to the ed only by the nonsense written by scien- problem again. Accordingly, the explana- fact that Normandy was invaded instead tists on philosophy.” You might think there tion can be found only in something that of Slovenia (the latter option, favored by could be no better illustration of Broad’s could not have failed to exist even in prin- Churchill and his generals, was a mad dictum than Richard Dawkins’s unhappy ciple—something that not only does not enterprise that was never taken seriously forays into the philosophy of religion. If have a cause, but couldn’t have had one, by Roosevelt or Stalin, and would have so, you should take a look at the latest vol- precisely because (unlike the universe) it left all Germany and France, as well as ume from Stephen Hawking and Leonard couldn’t in theory have failed to exist in the Poland, in Stalin’s hands), and deprecates Mlodinow. first place. In short, any contingent reality, the Yalta accords, which, in fact, guaran- To be sure, the bulk of The Grand like the universe, must depend upon a nec- teed Polish independence and democracy. Design is devoted to a fairly lucid expo - essary being, and this necessary being is His citation of Henry Kissinger’s state- sition of the central theories of modern what defenders of the First Cause argument ment that John Paul II was the greatest physics. Had Hawking and Mlodinow mean by “God.” man of the 20th century is also a bit unrig- stuck to science, there would have been lit- Of course, there is much more to it than orous; that honor usually goes to Roose - tle to object to. (Though also little reason that—like a scientific theory, a complex velt and Churchill for the salvation of to take notice. Did we really need yet philosophical argument cannot adequately Western civilization, and the scientists another popular account of relativity, be defended in the course of a book re - put up a respectable argument for Einstein. quan tum mechanics, and string theory?) view written for a general audience—but It is enough, and perfectly truthful, to say But they have grander ambitions: a new Hawk ing and Mlodinow don’t even rise that John Paul II was a contender. philosophy of science, in the service of a to the level of simplistic summary. And This book is not a rollicking read, but new theory of the origins of the universe, while an atheist might object to the ar - it’s a steady, solid, authoritative work one that will forever put paid to the claims gument in various ways, asking “What about a great man who believed that the of natural theology. “Philosophy is dead,” caused God?” simply misses the point. It Catholic Church “should bend its global Hawking and Mlodinow assure us, for sci- is like asking “Why couldn’t a Euclidean mission toward the recovery, defense, ence can now do what philosophers have triangle have sides that aren’t straight?” and promotion of the inalienable dignity tried to do, only better. Unfortunately, their A triangle without straight sides just and value of every human person.” Pope attempt at one-upmanship proves only wouldn’t be a Euclidean triangle, and a John Paul II was a prophet, but as George that Cicero’s famous quip about philoso - “God” who could in principle have had a Weigel writes, the “nature of his pro - phers may have been misdirected; for The cause just wouldn’t be the sort of God that phetic charism had to do not with clair- Grand Design demonstrates conclusively the First Cause argument is arguing for. voyance but with faith. . . . [His] that there is nothing so absurd but some Even worse than their sophomoric treat- un shakeable faith in Christ gave birth to scientist has said it. ment of natural theology, though, is what a world-changing hope for a new spring- Hawking and Mlodinow propose to put in time of the human spirit.” This bio - Mr. Feser is the author of Aquinas: A Beginner’s its place. In the course of their overview of graphy is worthy of such a man and so Guide and The Last Superstition: A quantum mechanics, they make heavy use great a mission. Refutation of the New Atheism. of Richard Feynman’s “sum over histories”
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interpretation, according to which a particle contradictory: If a thing were to cause sounds like what philosophers of science in the famous double-slit experiment can be itself, it would have to exist prior to itself, call instrumentalism rather than realism. interpreted as taking every possible path on in which case it would already exist and In other contexts they say that “mental its way from its source to the screen oppo- not need to be caused. (“Prior” need not concepts are the only reality we can know site the slits. That much is unremarkable, entail “earlier in time”; the same incoher- . . . a well-constructed model creates a though Feynman’s approach, like quantum ence arises even if we think of a cause reality of its own,” which appears to entail mechanics in general, raises philosophical and its effect as simultaneous, and inter - idealism, the view that all reality is mind- questions the possible answers to which pret “prior to” as meaning “more funda - dependent. And in yet other contexts they remain (contrary to the impression given by mental than.”) Hawking and Mlodinow give the impression that what model- Hawking and Mlodinow) matters of con- do not even acknowledge, much less dependent realism is really about is the troversy. More dubious (though not unique attempt to answer, this traditional “self- idea that “we have to employ different the- to our authors) is the jump to the conclusion contradiction” objection to the idea of ories in different situations,” and should that our universe is really part of a “multi- self-causation—despite insisting on “con- not expect all correct scientific models to verse” or collection of parallel universes. sistency” as an essential criterion for any be reducible to physics. That sort of view But even that metaphysical extravagance sound theory. This is the sober, scientific can indeed be interpreted in a realist man- is as nothing compared with the climax alternative to natural theology? ner, but in that case it is as old as Aristotle to which they build, after discussing the It gets worse, if that is possible. Our and not novel at all. The trouble is that effects observation has on a quantum sys- authors put forward as a novel philosophy Hawking and Mlodinow simply provide tem: the pronouncement that “we create of science something they call “model- us with no clear or consistent account of [the universe’s] history by our observation, dependent realism.” Judging from the what model-dependent realism is sup- rather than history creating us” and that name, you might expect that their position posed to be. And their overall argument since we are part of the universe, it follows is a version of realism—the view that the trades on this ambiguity: Some of their that “the universe . . . create[d] itself from entities described by scientific theories claims require interpreting the relevant nothing.” really exist objectively—and sometimes physics realistically, some require inter- Their argument for this remarkable Hawking and Mlodinow write as if that is preting it instrumentally, and some may claim is, shall we say, rather sketchy. But indeed what they think. Unfortunately, even require interpreting it idealistically. the main problem with it is that it is simply they also say things that contradict this. This is a textbook example of what logi- incoherent, a metaphysical impossibility. For example, in some contexts they tell us cians call the fallacy of equivocation. Philosophers and scientists alike have for that where “physical theories or models Had they bothered to acquaint them- millennia acknowledged as a necessary accurately predict the same events, one selves with work done in the philosophy truth the principle that nothing can be the cannot be said to be more real than the of science, they would have known that cause of itself. The reason is that the very other; rather, we are free to use which- their views are not at all novel where they idea of something causing itself is self- ever model is most convenient”—which are defensible, and completely muddled where they are original. But while philo - sophers of science typically consider it TATTERS a prerequisite to serious work in the field to master the science they comment on, I see the garment of a grief and pain Hawking and Mlodinow repeatedly and you no longer can feel, confidently pronounce upon philosophy the sleeve of my own heart tugged at without doing their homework. (Their asides on the history of philosophy, the on this lost winter’s afternoon, problem of free will, and the mind-body cold and indecisive sun reflected problem are as embarrassingly amateurish in the eyes of all who pass by, conceal as what they have to say about the philos- ophy of religion and the philosophy of sci- Surfacing fears of who I am, fake or real, ence.) They ignore their critics too—some or what I may yet become—like you, of the problems I’ve noted here can be a vagrant soul walking this Earth, found also in Hawking’s famous book A higher needs hollowed out, bankrupted, Brief History of Time, and were pointed content to settle for random crumbs of care out 20 years ago by philosopher William from nameless strangers who do stop, so few Lane Craig. Embedded as they are in this fabric of Extend a kindred hand, a smile to view, errors, even the otherwise useful exposi- or act as though that unsavory smell, tions of relativity, quantum mechanics, as you sit for warmth on the sidewalk vent, and string theory are bound to be highly is not the cloaking aura of our neglect, misleading to the non-expert reader. What wafting upon the subway thermals from below, comes across like mad science is really but the imaginable breath of some unimaginable Hell. just bad philosophy. Next time, fellas, stick to physics, and leave the metaphysics —MICHAEL PETTI to the experts.
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BOOKS, ARTS & MANNERS luxury hotel to a session with a village Of Naipaul’s few sweeping conclu- witch doctor deep in the bush. sions, some are simply false, such as the A Religious On one occasion the reader encoun- claim that “traditional african religion ters Naipaul and the Trinidadian ambas- had no doctrine.” in fact, the rules that Journey sador being motored, “flag unfurled,” on governed most of traditional africa a four-hour ride through uganda. They were premised on increasing social TRAVIS KAVULLA arrive in the western city of Fort portal, cohesion and fecundity, and buttressed and call upon the shabby palace that is by tedious regulations upon individual the seat of the Toro kingdom, but there is lives. although such doctrine was not no royal to meet them—only a gin-eyed written down until thousands of mis- functionary who scams the ambassador sionaries and anthropologists gave their into paying $37 for a framed souvenir careers to doing so, it was extensively photograph, hastily developed, of him- formulated long beforehand. self admiring the palace hours before. Neither does Naipaul much delve into (This reviewer’s reception at the same the current state of african belief. in - palace, apparently around the same time credibly, he appears never to go to a as Naipaul’s, was much more courte- pentecostal or evangelical church ser- ous!) vice—or for that matter any church The Masque of Africa: Glimpses of in the company of another diplomat, service—during his visit to africa. African Belief, by V. S. Naipaul this time in Ghana, Naipaul lunches at This is a conspicuous absence, since the (Knopf, 256 pp., $26.95) the home of Flight lt. Jerry Rawlings, pentecostal belief in the miraculous who twice launched successful coups powers of the Holy Spirit has spread S. Naipaul is a gifted against the Ghanaian government and like brushfire through much of africa writer whose diction, twice returned the country to civilian in the past few decades. pentecostals imagery, and insight on rule—getting himself elected president now outnumber members of mainline V. postcolonial societies from in more-or-less-fair votes twice in be- denominations like anglicanism and the Caribbean to South asia have won tween. Catholicism. Really any book about his work, both novels and narrative non- These bizarre and amusing encoun- african belief written in this decade fiction, great and deserved admiration. ters give a feel for the institutions of reli- ought to have pentecostalism as its first Born in Trinidad to an indian family, gion and government in modern africa. chapter, so profound is its influence Naipaul is at heart an anglophile wield- The best parts of the book are quin - across the continent. Yet there are only ing language precisely and with a dry tessentially travelogue and not those scattered mentions of the pentecostal wit. Regular readers will chuckle at his instances when Naipaul dips into his movement, which Naipaul dubs “evan- gloomy turns of phrase—here he spies a purported subject matter, which is, as gelical,” “pentecostal,” “born-again,” “moraine of garbage,” there he observes the subtitle says, “glimpses of african and “rock-and-roll.” Beyond this, there “africa drowning in the fecundity of its belief.” Fortunately, Naipaul dips in is little attempt to describe the theology people.” relatively infrequently. of this force that is sweeping across The Masque of Africa is a rambling His “glimpses” are just that—so fleet- africa, or why africans might find it travelogue taking the reader in six ing that you barely notice them. He intro- appealing. chapters to six different african states: duces us to concepts like “tradi tional instead, Naipaul uses race as a proxy uganda, Nigeria, Ghana, ivory Coast, african religion” without ever offering for belief. This is not uncommon. like Gabon, and South africa. its stream-of- a definition of the same. an extremely many authors writing about the post- consciousnesss approach is similar to patient reader might excuse this with colonial world, he wrings his hands over that of Naipaul’s previous works, as well explanations of the work’s attempted the confused identity into which many as to that of his late brother Shiva Nai - subtlety, but even this Nai paul fan was africans are born: a culture mutated by paul’s masterly african travelogue, North left exasperated by the author’s amble the religious and political inheritances of South, one of the genre’s best. around the matter at hand. of European colonization. Naipaul is in this travelogue, Sir Vidia cruises also given—like many writers on the around african capital cities and subject of africa—to a dichotomous backwaters, inevitably finding him- portrayal of traditional religion ver - self—because of his own social posi- sus white Christianity and islam. He tion—edged into the higher tiers of remarks, not without a hint of obnox- africa’s social strata, which, depending iousness, about one of his friends in on location, can mean anything from a Ghana: “His life had been too varied, rendezvous with an ashanti royal at a full of unconnected or disparate parts, and he hadn’t worked out a way to pre- Mr. Kavulla, a former NR associate editor and sent himself. i suppose that meant he Gates Scholar in history, is a writer in Montana. “Welcome to ‘All Sides of the Issues.’ Here’s our hadn’t been able to make a whole of his He won the November election to serve on the state’s panel of commentators—a communist, a socialist, experience.” public service commission. a liberal, and a progressive . . .” Truth be told, many africans have
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long ago gotten over the ambivalent fewer than four times, probably more postcolonial identity that has been than in any other book about Africa. ascribed to them. As early as the 1950s, In his last morning in Ivory Coast, he The Taste some Africans were finding ways to learns that cats destined for the table wiggle around within mainline Chris - are put in a bag and dispatched in grue - Makers tian denominations, even while others some ways. Reflecting on the incident, founded their own nominally Christian Naipaul writes, “the thought of this FRED SCHWARZ churches that were packaged even more everyday kitchen cruelty made every- in a particular tribe’s precolonial beliefs. thing else in the Ivory Coast seem unim- In Pentecostal churches, Africans have portant.” this is not something that a taken on the patois of the American visitor to Africa with an appropriately televangelist—but, even so, the Pen - adjusted sense of priorities would say. tecostal focus on miracles in the here- stranger than this, however, is some- and-now (which other Christians say thing beyond Naipaul’s control. His first deemphasizes the afterlife) seems to chapter is titled “the tomb at Kasubi,” have more theological overlap with an occasion for Naipaul to describe his more materialistic African traditions, in visit to the eponymous thatched-roof which religious places were typically shrine of the Buganda kings—a giant “where people could come to ask for structure and one of the few symbols Empty Pleasures: The Story of Artificial boons,” as Naipaul says. of a prosperous, centrally organized Sweeteners from Saccharin to Splenda, Naipaul has less comfort in the flex - kingdom to be found in Africa when by Carolyn de la Peña ibility of African culture than many Europeans began colonization in earnest (North Carolina, 320 pp., $32.50) ordinary Africans. One of the notable in the late 1800s. throughout colonial- Africans he meets is the Oba of Lagos— ism and the violent despotism that fol- t’s often said that when a woman a modern-day chief with power over the lowed, Ugandans looked to their tribal wants to lose weight, she goes on a metropolis’s government who describes institutions for comfort and normalcy. diet, but when a man wants to lose himself as “trustee for the dead, trustee the Kasubi tomb is testimony to that I weight, he exercises. the way this for the living, and trustee for those to and a symbol of the endurance of cus- usually pans out is that the woman starts come.” this line comes nearly verbatim tom. Or it was a symbol: In between putting sweet’N Low in her coffee and from Burke, a fact Naipaul must know Naipaul’s writing this travelogue and figures that’s good for at least a pound a but does not disclose. In other moments, its being published, the tomb at Kasubi week, so further measures aren’t neces- Naipaul describes the ancestral spirits— caught fire and burned to the ground. sary; while the man jogs three-quarters of the interveners of much of precolonial Riots broke out after rumors blamed a mile, comes home gasping, and decides Africa’s faith—in a way that borders arson. the incident remains a mys - that he needs to get in better shape before closely on the Christian concept of tery. he starts working out. Besides serving as sainthood. And yet Naipaul does not there is a temptation to regard Africa a handy metaphor for the mommy party’s draw the comparison explicitly. these as a timeless object. that is not so. the and daddy party’s respective approaches are just two examples of Africans’ Kasubi tomb may well remain a sym- to budget cutting, this explains how a using durable terminologies of Euro - bol, its immolation a demonstration that book about the history of artificial sweet- pean thought to classify some of their the outward trappings of traditional eners can become a feminist tract. own preexisting beliefs. It’s hardly a African belief may not be long for this As Carolyn de la Peña, a professor of process of subjugation, the image of a world. More and more, the old customs American studies at UC-Davis, explains, culture being torn apart. Cultures can are being cloaked in the trappings of the saccharin, the first artificial sweetener, adapt, differences are sometimes medi- modern Christian and Muslim worlds. A ated. that is just what we are seeing mask, as Naipaul says, but much more in Africa today. than that. “Rated One of New York City In writing a travelogue, in which the Religious belief and the institutions ‘Best Value’ Hotels.” ... Zagats author is inevitably a character, it is that attend it are often the only counter- impossible to deny the influence of balance to Africa’s young, volatile, and his individual eccentricities. Naipaul is sometimes terroristic governments. more or less forthcoming about his. Let those governments constantly attempt me pick but one bone: It is a little to legitimate themselves through appeal strange that a grouch like Naipaul, who to tradition. But, in fact, the diverse spends much of his Africa travels grous- churches and mosques are often truer New York’s all suite hotel is located in repositories of African custom than the heart of the city, near corporations, ing about, even sneering at, his brother theatre & great restaurants. Affordable man, has an overwhelming fondness those fabricated nation-states headed elegance with all the amenities of home. for cats. Africans, he discovers, do not by rulers who rarely, if ever, had pre- particularly care for cats—livestock or colonial analogues. the real story of 149 E. 39th St. (Bet 3rd & Lex) New York, NY 10016 roaming delicacies in some places. how Africa is changing, where it’s head- Reservations 1-800-248-9999 Ask about our special National Review rates. the plight of cats is brought up no ing, is there.
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BOOKS, ARTS & MANNERS was discovered accidentally by a chemist officials in an ultimately successful cam- and non-polemical; and her more elabo- at Johns Hopkins in 1879. Amid the Pro - paign to get the ban overturned. De la rate flights of interpretive fancy have gressive spirit of the early 20th century, it Peña clearly sympathizes with the hordes something of the air of an eager student soon became reviled as an adulterant: of Americans, most of them women, who trying to please the teacher. She admits Since saccharin cost just one-thirteenth as objected vociferously to the ban. Yet that “a binary between ‘good’ and ‘bad’ much as the equivalent amount of sugar, while she admires the protesters’ feisti- isn’t what the history of artificial sweet- food and beverage manufacturers sneaked ness, there’s no denying that they were ener reveals.” Her biggest flaw is that it into their products to cut costs. This first uncomfortably (how to put this?) Tea she overanalyzes minor episodes to anti-saccharin campaign was based on Party–ish. support liberal pieties, when everyone the idea that it was cheating consumers Ultimately, she escapes this dilemma knows they should be overanalyzed to of “food value”—that is, calories. More by explaining that saccharin wasn’t the support conservative pieties instead. So acceptably, saccharin was also sold as real issue. Some protesters “wanted sac- let’s see what happens when we recap a drug for diabetics and the severely charin simply because the government the story from the opposite point of obese. (As early as 1908, Pres. Theodore said they should not,” while others had view. Roosevelt—a saccharin-using dieter him- spent their lives being exploited and In this version, private industry and self—appointed a panel that found it marginalized and were venting their frus- resourceful consumers interacted to turn a safe for human consumption.) Through tration: In a world of perils ranging from laboratory curiosity into a multibillion- tight Depression budgets and World War II cigarettes to toxic waste to nuclear power, dollar market in artificially sweetened rationing, creative housewives searched “protesting the ban . . . may have enabled goods. Consumers sent signals with their out saccharin in the drugstore and found consumers to make sense of inchoate purchasing decisions; industry responded ways of using it to stretch their sugar sup- fears.” In other words, the Sweet-Tea with new products to increase profits. ply; this helped remove the stigma. By the Partiers were plucky victims, but victims When the government overstepped its mid-1950s, saccharin was being marketed nonetheless, seeking an outlet for their proper role, the result was the Saccharin directly to healthy consumers, and over rage at being women in America. Uprising of 1977, a milestone of freedom the ensuing decades, entrepreneurs devel- Then came the 1980s and NutraSweet. that (along with similar 1970s rebellions oped new artificial sweeteners and mar- “The team that manufactured and mar - against the metric system and nationwide keted an ever-expanding array of “diet” keted NutraSweet,” writes de la Peña, speed limits) finally killed off the New foods and beverages. “created such an intensely effective mes- Deal. Thus did Tab pave the way for That, greatly slimmed down, is the sage around the product,” and managed to Ronald Reagan. story, and for de la Peña, its main interest arrange “the regulatory apparatus in such The enduring power of free enterprise lies in the way women “created mean- a way,” that “the balance between pro- can be seen in today’s profusion of new ings” for the sweeteners by adapting them ducer and consumer was forever altered sugar substitutes, including sucralose, ste- to their needs and those of their families. in its favor.” And who was to blame for via, and neotame. These artificial sweet- And this is where de la Peña encounters this? Yup, you guessed it: “NutraSweet eners empower women (and men) by the basic paradox of feminism: how to was not Reagan’s New Day in a can, but helping them balance the desire for portray women as strong, independent, it was close.” pleasure with nutritional concerns. As and creative, yet simultaneously as help- The Reagan Era’s emphasis on un - de la Peña might say, consumers devise less victims of the patriarchy. In the bridled consumption and the indivi- technological strategies to allocate their 1950s, says the author, saccharin-using dual pursuit of pleasure, de la Peña caloric intake in order to maximize housewives “created an intensely self- ex plains, eradicated the sinful con- hedonic value—and create meanings, of focused, empowering relationship with notations attached to overindulgence. course. sweetness,” but a few decades later, they Rejecting “an opportunity to check the Indeed, de la Peña herself might be were passive dupes of corporate greed: very practices that would lead to national called a social conservative in her insis- “People do not merely decide that they deficit, the credit crises and subprime tence on suffering for one’s sins (“The want to buy lower-calorie items over mortgage bailout, and ceaseless military promise of artificial sweeteners is that higher-calorie items. Marketers actively action in the Middle East, . . . Americans consumer pleasure can be stripped of commodify a palate of meanings. . . . By would instead embrace neoliberal gov- its negative consequences”). She has a constantly pushing eaters to embrace their ernment reforms, aggressive international point: It’s not good for everybody to desire for more food, within a culture that relations, and admonitions to secure con- always take the easy route. There really is had for thirty years urged consumers to tinued economic growth through con- no free lunch, and certainly no calorie- consume more of everything, artificial sumer spending and tax breaks for free lunch. One can only wish the Left sweeteners may have helped create the businesses.” And artificial sweeteners would be just as insistent on the impor- climate of fat fear.” were at the center of it. Seriously, they tance of hard work and no shortcuts in These conflicting sympathies come were. If you need any more proof that it areas where those things are truly neces- through most clearly in the author’s am - was all a neoconservative plot, check out sary, such as homeownership and educa- bivalent coverage of the Great Saccharin who was CEO of G. D. Searle when the tion. Revolt. In 1977, the Food and Drug company introduced NutraSweet in 1983: Of course, the real conservative mes- Administration tried to ban saccharin— Donald Rumsfeld. Case closed. sage is that all we’re talking about is a and the public reacted with fury, sending For all that, the book isn’t bad. The packet of Sweet’N Low, so we all should more than a million letters to government author is diligent, mostly even-handed lighten up.
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harangue us in airport lounges and taxi- true minds. They are the tones of ordinary City Desk cabs. I await the toilet-stall model, whose conversation. broadcasts will begin with a health tip— There have been ugly young-women’s about sexual hygiene perhaps, or laxative accents—Valley, Jersey—forever. The Whoa, Dude! diets. The upshot: more hearing overload. new ugliness is in the amplitude. I am in And more need to speak over what is an elevator. A young woman joins me, heard. still talking on her cell phone, or two join Item three: child-rearing. I used to feel me, talking to each other. Their voices guilty, in my teens, reading right-world make a beak, like a heron’s bill; they poke polemic about Spock babies: cosseted, for frogs there, there, and there. The little indulged; too prosperous, too selfish. That ascending cubicle reverberates. After they was me! Now I feel like a son of Sparta. At get off, the door closes, and the ascent some point in the last century parents resumes, I can still hear them, like distant decided that whenever little Weenus feels hunting horns, down the shaft. To its cred- like yelling, he should let it rip. Nannies I it, girl honk does obviate the elevator RICHARD BROOKHISER notice are sterner on the whole; those silence of enforced proximity, broken by ladies from the islands don’t put up with the weather conversation. “It’s a hot/cold heN Sony stopped produc- that nonsense. But Mom and Dad do, not one.” “Cooler/warmer tomorrow.” But tion of the Walkman, it had so much from parenting liberalism as from maybe unease and banality are better. long been superseded by battle fatigue: Golly, the little buggers are Many things would be better than guys W more advanced technolo- harder to handle than we expected. The who room together. When apartments gy, but in the early eighties, when it first guilt engendered by such passing second float out of rent regulation, landlords sub- caught on, it was a revolutionary urban thoughts is so intolerable, however, that divide them like flophouses, and rent to sanity-saver. Before then, every time you parents find it better to ignore the thoughts, posses of young men. They talk in all went out in public, you stepped inside and their screaming kiddies. Those youth- caps, as we did in the infancy of e-mail. someone’s radio. It was the age of the ful outbursts have consequences. hey DuDe. Could they really, unironical- boombox, or, in the rude frankness of The fourth horseman is rock ’n’ roll, ly, say, “hey, dude!”? Surely I am stereo- slang, the ghetto blaster. Sometimes a and every other breed of amplified pop typing. But the caps are real. When they youth would set one by the curb or the music. That is what roars through person- are in transit in lobby or hallway, when an standpipe or wherever he was taking his al listening devices, but its kingdom is open door lets out sentence fragments, ease and make a little concert hall. Other greater by far. Movie trailers, half-time when the walls become mediums for youths humped them on their shoulders and ambled along in a moving plume of thunk and salsa. If two passing blasters Now the noise fans nod were tuned to the same station you got the autistically, each to the beat double whammy; if they were tuned to different stations it was Charles Ives in the of his own ear-buds. hood. If you want a quiet life, move to the country: agreed. But this was a quantum shows, political conventions, megachurch sound rather than barriers against it, you beyond. Then, like a magician’s wand, the services; malls, bars, stores, outdoor gas hear the unvarying pitch appropriate to a Walkman turned the blasters off. Bloat pumps—the high decibels enliven every call of “Man overboard!” applied instead cars with road-warrior sound systems are occasion and venue, like shock therapy in to salutations and chat. the only ghosts of those bad old days. a mad person’s cortex. Only courtrooms, When they throw skanks-and-booze Now the noise fans nod autistically, Quaker meetings, and Walden pond are parties—that’s not what they call them, of each to the beat of his own ear-buds. My exempt. No wonder Keith has been call- course, that’s just what’s served—they ears are fine. But something has happened ing Mick Brenda and her Majesty all don’t talk any louder (that would scarcely to their ears, and thus to their voices. these years; after 10,000 choruses of be possible); they become louder because Consider another meta-factor. When I “Street Fighting Man,” Jagger can’t hear they have invited all their friends, and was a lad the typical family (mine) owned him. friends of friends, and there are ten times as one television. It sat in the living room, it unless Keith yelled. There is the solu- many of them. DuDe. DuDe. DuDe. This was the bright cold fireplace. Then clever tion to the nation’s ear damage, supplied must be how they talk on dates; honk girls Japanese went to work, prices came down, by the nation’s paideia: Scream like you would not notice. Is it how they conduct and it became possible, then virtually are five again. Only the screamers are job interviews? I MAJOreD IN BuSINeSS man datory, to own many televisions. Did no longer five, but have an average age of, eThICS, MAN. how they talk to their elders? proliferation create a trend, or simply I would say, 27. Their vocal cords have yOur DAughTer’SANICe pIeCe, DuDe. speed one that was already afoot? Tele- matured. Women produce a harsh honk, Did I say they wear board shorts in the vision changed from something you men a loutish shout. The sounds I de - warm months? They do. It is the ugliest watched to something you didn’t scribe, and which the city vouchsafes garment men wear, next to the thong watch, really—because it was on all the me every day, are not voices raised in bathing suit. So there is justice in the time, everywhere. Now the small screens anger, drunkenness, or the meeting of world, if not peace.
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Athwart BY JAMES LILEKS Life, Liberty, and the Pursuit of Happy Meals
AYOR MIkE BLOOMBERg, leader of the ened. We’re supposed to live on slices of goose-flavored Bloomberg faction of the Bloomberg tofu with tamarind compote wrapped in organic arugula. party, was interviewed en route to China, But the untutored tongue pines for grease, salt, and sugar. M where he was seeking to open diplomatic It’s elemental. It’s what our head wants: HEY! YOU ties between Cathay and the colorful principality he gov- THERE! SALT! PUT IT IN ME! Recall the scene in 2001: erns. A quote: “If you look at the U.S., you look at who A Space Odyssey where the monkeys hoot and holler we’re electing to Congress, to the Senate—they can’t around the mysterious monolith? If the alien intelligence read. I’ll bet you a bunch of these people don’t have pass- had put up a Cinnabon stand instead, the monkeys would ports.” have invented money in three days, and the concept of Brace yourselves! We’re about to be governed by paying for “extra icing” in four. provincial illiterates. For folk like Mike, the Magic Ah, but it wasn’t the nutritional quality of the Happy Passport possesses liberating qualities; running your fin- Meal that made it doubleplusungood, it was the toy. The gers over its stiff blue cover makes you think of stepping irresistible lure of plastic stamped in the shape of a off a plane, shorn of the thick sopping wool of America, licensed character or media-conglomerate movie tie-in. ready for an experience that will add depthless wisdom to Their primary purpose is to acquaint the very young your perception of the world. They drive on the other side with the concept of instantaneous disappointment; their of the road! They have tiny cups secondary function is to make of coffee! Salad comes after the the parent look for the origin— main meal! These globe hoppers invariably, China—and imagine believe that someone who’s been dark satanic mills belching out to all 50 states is less informed poisonous fumes, producing an than someone who lives on the endless stream of pink-and- Upper East Side all year except purple plastic Princess pieces, for a trip to Cannes. If a passport which will be loaded into metal were required to go west of the containers, hauled through the Hudson, these people would be heaving seas of the Pacific, dis- proud they didn’t have one. tributed throughout the land, and Bloomberg is famous for his played with for one unenthused war against salt and fat and soda minute before they’re fed to the and tobacco; if you want those gullet of the trash bin, after things, you’ll have to get a pass- which they will form a stratum port and go to France. C’est iron - of a landfill that will baffle ar - ique! Makes you want to hang cheologists of the future. Why around his office and chain-smoke Slim Jims. His special did this people make 20 million tiny plastic cats, all blend of condescension and control is one of the things alike? Does the tomato-condiment indicate blood, and that do not endear him to average voters, which is why if so, what ritual was involved? Even if you drive a he’ll never be president. But he would probably carry San Hummer with the windows down and the AC blasting, Francisco: In a move that must have made Bloomberg you feel a pang of environmental guilt when you throw gasp at the brilliant audacity of it all, that city’s board of this stuff away. supervisors banned Happy Meals. Fast-food restaurants That said: It’s not the government’s call to bat them will be forbidden to give toys with meals that contain out of kids’ hands. It’s not their business. The point too much incorrect deliciousness. This is why the Right man for the anti–Happy Meal initiative stated that this won the election: People suspect the Left’s agenda con- wasn’t just about nutrition, though—this was “food sists of taking away your right to eat what you want and justice,” a new concept that will soon join hands with giving Ronald McDonald the right to marry the Ham - the commerce clause to ban interstate transport of fast burglar. food, unless Taco Bell gets smart and markets its bur - Not a big fan of the Happy Meal, personally, and not ritos as “undocumented wraps.” But to get back to just because it suggests Dad’s bag is a Slough of Despond Mike: Mayor Bloomberg said he worried about new Meal. Now and then, okay, but as a steady diet, no. Bad. congresspeople, because they didn’t know where China Too many kids are so tubby they get winded trying to was, and might start a trade war. Yet his ilk would be open the packet of ketchup. Still, you want to root for the happy if the kids were forced to drink a fiber-rich beet Happy Meal, because its existence appalls the enlight- slurry without a toy on the side, and the cost to Chinese factories be damned. You want a trade war? There’s Mr. Lileks blogs at www.lileks.com. your first shot.
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WASTE $3 BILLION TO SAVE $2 BILLION? WHY THE EXTRA ENGINE IS A LOSING PROPOSITION. According to the Government Accountability Office (GAO), the Joint Strike Fighter extra engine could potentially save $2.4 billion by 2040.* Unfortunately, the Department of Defense estimates that taxpayers will have to spend $2.9 billion to find out. All while outsourcing hundreds of American jobs to factories in the United Kingdom. That’s why two presidents, two secretaries of defense and our military leadership have consistently said they don’t need and don’t want an alternate engine for the F-35 JSF. Our members of Congress need to support the American taxpayers and our men and women in uniform by ending this wasteful earmark. Learn more at f135engine.com.
*The GAO March 2007 report suggests that competition could save 10-12%. With only $20 billion of the program available for competition, that amounts to $2.0-$2.4 billion.
It’s in our power.™