Vermont in Transition: A Summary of Social, Economic and Environmental Trends A study by Center for Social Science Research at Saint Michael’s College Vince Bolduc, Ph. D. and Herb Kessel, Ph. D for the Council on the Future of Vermont December 2008 Preface After 15 years of facilitating community engagement in towns The research team responsible for throughout Vermont and building non-partisan policy councils to this work, led Dr. Vince Bolduc and address issues of fundamental importance to the state, in 2007 the Dr. Herb Kessel, did an incredible Vermont Council on Rural Development (VCRD) founded the job of collaborating with researchers Council on the Future of Vermont. VCRD believes that in this and data analysts from state, federal time of change, all Vermonters should have a role in describing the and local agencies and organizations. goals and priorities for the future and the common starting points They have compiled data on that can help us be successful in addressing them. Vermont’s economy, demographics, education, agriculture, land use, and many other important policy issues of our time, identifying For eighteen months, the Council on the Future of Vermont has major trends in specific category areas, and tracking those transitions toured the state, holding public forums and focus groups, asking over time. At Vermont Council on Rural Development, we believe thousands of Vermonters to share their visions for the future, the this report will be valuable resource to many in the state, especially opportunities and challenges they see, and what priorities they would policy, philanthropic, business and non-profits leaders. It is a unique set for the state. The public testimony gathered from this process is source of information and serves as a digest of Vermont’s major unprecedented in scope; it documents the passion Vermonters have changes in the last decades. for their state, and their concerns and values as they look to the hard decisions of the future. From these forums, major topic areas were We would also like to extend our sincere thanks to all the partners identified to help guide the research conducted for this report. and sponsors of the Council on the Future of Vermont project, who are listed on the back cover of this report, for making this work VCRD commissioned the Center for Social Science Research possible. at Saint Michael’s College to conduct a trend-line analysis of the recent past in Vermont as a contribution to the deliberations of the We hope that you find this report useful in your work and encourage Council on the Future of Vermont. While the research trends in you to see it as a companion of the final report in the spring of 2009. this book are not the final findings of the Council on the Future of Vermont, they represent an important context and background to all the public testimony that has been gathered, and will be evaluated Paul Costello carefully in the work of the Council as it deliberates toward its final Vermont Council on Rural Development conclusions. TABLE OF CONTENTS Introduction Drs. Vince Bolduc and Herb Kessel ............................................................................... page 2 Section I: The Vermont Context Chapter 1: Population Dr. Vince Bolduc............................................................................................ 7 Chapter 2: Environment and Climate ...................................................................................19 Drs. Art Hessler, William Karstens, Vince Bolduc and Herb Kessel Chapter 3: Land Use Dr. Richard Kujawa..........................................................................................33 Section II. The Vermont Economy Chapter 4: Economy Dr. Herb Kessel...............................................................................................41 Chapter 5: Affordability Drs. Herb Kessel and John Carvellas ...........................................................57 Chapter 6: Agriculture Dr. Herb Kessel ..........................................................................................69 Chapter 7: Forestry Dr. Herb Kessel.................................................................................................79 Chapter 8: Creative Economy Dr. Vince Bolduc...........................................................................87 Section III. Infrastructure Chapter 9: Physical and Electronic Infrastructure...........................................................95 Drs. Vince Bolduc, Herb Kessel and Mr. Hank Lambert Chapter 10: Energy Patricia H. Richards............................................................................................ 103 Chapter 11: Education Drs. John Carvellas and Herb Kessel.............................................................. 111 Section IV. The Institutions Chapter 12: Health and Health Care Dr. Vince Bolduc ............................................................ 125 Chapter 13: Crime and Corrections Dr. Vince Bolduc.............................................................. 135 Chapter 14: Governance, Civic Engagement and Quality of Life ............................ 143 Dr. Vince Bolduc, Dr. Herb Kessel, and Jake Dubuque INTRODUCTION The past and the future are like foreign countries to us. The present is but a fleet‐ have the opportunity to better understand how our state has evolved in ing transition, familiar territory and the sole vantage point from which we can recent years and to prepare for the challenges ahead. understand the past before it disappears from memory. The future is terra incog‐ nita that only exists in our imaginations until we arrive. Background and Organization Vermont is a remarkable place. Among the 50 states, Vermont is fre‐ quently listed either at the top or at the bottom of many rankings, and its In the spring of 2008, the Center for Social Science Research at Saint Mi‐ national reputation is far more expansive than its size warrants. As one chael’s College signed a contract with the Vermont Council on Rural De‐ wit put it, “Vermont only has the population of a medium sized city, but it velopment to provide a statistical profile of the state as a key component aspires to be a whole state.” The purpose of this study is straightforward: of its two‐year Council on the Future of Vermont project. Between 2007 to pull together a wide selection of recent statistical data representing the and 2008, The Council on the Future of Vermont project held 14 public most significant social, economic environmental trends in Vermont. The forums and over 80 focus groups around the state to gather information resulting text is unique in the way that it combines the following charac‐ on the values and priorities of Vermonters and what they see as the chal‐ teristics: it is holistic in its broad spectrum of subjects covered; it is histori‐ lenges of the future. Most of the chapters included in this text reflect the cal in its focus on change over time; and it is quantitative in its reliance on most pressing issues that emerged from these forums. As project direc‐ objective data. Finally, each topic is presented in the context of regional or tors, we added to the list of topics based upon our expertise in our re‐ national developments. spective fields of Sociology and Economics as well as our own 30 years of state based research. The view of Vermont that emerges in the following pages provides the reader a rich mosaic painted on a broad canvas. Or perhaps a better meta‐ This study is divided into four sections and 14 chapters. The first section phor would be that of a “5,000 foot” aerial tour of the state’s landscape; sets the broader context of the study with chapters on Population (1), the high enough to see the broad trends, yet too high to see all the local dy‐ Environment and Climate (2), and Land Use (3). The second section fo‐ namics as they blend together from one town to the next. The more we cuses on the economy with chapters on the overall Economy (4) and spe‐ studied the patterns and trends, the more we came to appreciate the cial areas of study including Affordability (5), Agriculture (6), Forestry (7), unique nature of Vermont. Every state makes similar claims to unique‐ and the Creative Economy (8). The third section examines key parts of the ness, of course, but Vermont’s special combination of characteristics has state’s infrastructure including the Physical and Electronic Infrastructure resulted in a more coherently recognizable “personality” than most states. (9), Energy (10), and Education (11). The final section considers areas that And like a personality, it gives Vermont a reputation that affects the be‐ we grouped into a catch‐all category that we called the institutions— haviors and attitudes of its citizens, draws selected people (and compa‐ Health and Health Care (12), Crime and Corrections (13), and Govern‐ nies) to the state, while discouraging others. We hope that by bringing ance, Civic Engagement and Quality of Life (14). together the most important trends in a single volume, Vermonters will 2 ~ Vermont in Transition Truly, this is a study of “statistics” in the original sense of the word: “a Regardless of how recent our statistics, all trends become “dated” as descriptive arithmetic of the state.” We have been fascinated by the trends newer data becomes available. Most trends, we expect, will change little we have found in the course of our research. They gave us new insights over the months between our last data point and the time of the study’s and a fresh perspective into Vermont’s