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Learning Curve, Change in Industrial Environment, and Dynamics of Production Activities in Unconventional Energy Resources

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Learning Curve, Change in Industrial Environment, and Dynamics of Production Activities in Unconventional Energy Resources sustainability Article Learning Curve, Change in Industrial Environment, and Dynamics of Production Activities in Unconventional Energy Resources Jong-Hyun Kim and Yong-Gil Lee * Department of Energy Resources Engineering, Inha University, 100 Inharo, Nam-gu, Incheon 22212, Korea; [email protected] * Correspondence: [email protected]; Tel.: +82-32-860-7555 Received: 29 August 2018; Accepted: 14 September 2018; Published: 17 September 2018 Abstract: Since 2007, shale oil and gas production in the United States has become a significant portion of the global fossil fuel market. The main cause for the increase in production of shale oil and gas in the US is the adoption of new production technologies, namely, horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing. However, the production cost of shale oil and gas in the US is comparably higher than the production cost of conventional oil and gas. In 2014, the crude oil and natural gas price decreased significantly to approximately 40 dollars per barrel, and natural gas prices decreased to 3 dollars per million British thermal unit, and thus the productivity and financial conditions for the exploration and production of shale oil and natural gas for producers in the United States have worsened critically. Therefore, technological innovation has become one of the most interesting issues of the energy industry. The present study analyzes the trends in technological innovation having a relationship with production activities. This study calculates the learning rate of 30 companies from the petroleum exploration and production industry in the United States using an improved learning rate calculation formula that reflects the changes in the oil production ratio. Thus, more statistically confident calculation results and interpretations of strategic production activities with regard to changes in the industrial environment were achieved in this study. Keywords: learning rate; shale gas; tight oil; unconventional; petroleum; exploration and producing company; upstream industry; technological development 1. Introduction The main focus of the global energy market is the upstream energy industry in the Unites States. Figure1 shows the crash in the Henry Hub Natural Gas and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices in 2014. The WIT crude oil price decreased from nearly 100 dollars per barrel in late 2014 and continued to decrease to under 40 dollars per barrel in early 2016. The Henry Hub Natural Gas price decreased significantly from nearly five dollars per million British thermal unit in 2014, whereas the natural gas price rebounded in early 2016. Since then, US crude oil prices settled at approximately 50 dollars per barrel between the middle of 2016 to the middle of 2017. Natural gas prices settled and fluctuated at approximately three dollars per million British thermal unit from the middle of 2016. After the crash in commodities prices, price trends have differed. Oil prices increased to 60 dollars per barrel in early 2017. However, natural gas prices have remained at approximately three dollars per million British thermal unit [1,2]. Sustainability 2018, 10, 3322; doi:10.3390/su10093322 www.mdpi.com/journal/sustainability Sustainability 2018, 10, 3322 2 of 11 Sustainability 2018, 10, x FOR PEER REVIEW 2 of 12 WTI crude oil & Henry Hub Natural Gas prices 160 14 140 12 120 10 100 8 per barrel 80 6 60 Dollars 4 40 20 2 0 0 BritishperDollars unit million thermal 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 WTI spot HenryHub Natural gas spot FigureFigure 1. Natural 1. Natural gas gas and and crude crude oil oil price price changeschanges from 2007 2007 to to 2018. 2018. WTI: WTI: West West Texas Texas Intermediate. Intermediate. ExplorationExploration and and production production (E&P) (E& companiesP) companies in thein USthe haveUS have persistently persistently suffered suffered during during periods of lowperiods commodities of low commodities prices in theprices past in the three past years. three years. Particular Particular damage damage has has been been incurred incurred byby E&P companiesE&P companies producing producing shale gas andshale tight gas oiland or tight unconventional oil or unconventional petroleum, petroleum, which have which comparatively have comparatively higher production costs than conventional oil and gas. These players have recorded higher production costs than conventional oil and gas. These players have recorded huge losses huge losses while producing oil and gas, which have higher production costs than their commodity while producing oil and gas, which have higher production costs than their commodity prices. prices. From mid-2015 to late 2016, low crude oil and natural gas prices have brought costs down Fromamong mid-2015 several to lateUS 2016,shale E&P low crudeplayers oil [3 and]. This natural decrease gas in prices production have broughtcosts could costs indicate down the among severalbeginning US shale of E&Pan era players of cheap [3 and]. This unconventional decrease in productionoil and gas or costs could could be a temporary indicate the change beginning caused of an era ofby cheap the reduced and unconventional expenditures of oilE&P and companies. gas or could Curtis be [4 a] described temporary the change technological caused development by the reduced expendituresand changes of E&Pin engineering companies. performance Curtis [4] describedfactors related the technologicalto productivity. development Moreover, the and results changes in engineeringsuggest that performance the discovery of factors remaining related scientific to productivity. unknowns could Moreover, possibly theimprove results the suggestproductivity that the discoveryof unconventional of remaining petroleum scientific- unknownsproducing technologies. could possibly improve the productivity of unconventional petroleum-producingGao and You technologies.[5] emphasized and suggested improving economic efficiency and sustainability in shale gas production through technological developments throughout the US shale gas industry Gao and You [5] emphasized and suggested improving economic efficiency and sustainability from upstream to downstream. Middleton et al. [6] showed that technological developments improve in shale gas production through technological developments throughout the US shale gas industry production from single wells using fracturing technology. The authors also conducted simulations fromusing upstream data from to downstream. 20,000 wells from Middleton the Barnett et al. formation [6] showed from that 1994 technological to 2016. Wei et developments al. [7] analyzed improve US productionpatent datum from singleand suggest wellsed using that fracturingthe technological technology. development The authors of the shale also gas conducted industry simulationsstarted usingfrom data 1966 from, and 20,000 patent wells intensity from strengthened the Barnett from formation 2005 to from2016. Moreover, 1994 to 2016. they Weidescribed et al. the [7] most analyzed US patentinnovative datum technology and suggested in the shale that theindustry technological, including development synthetic carbon of the oxide, shale fracture gas industry proppant, started fromhydraulic 1966, and fracturing patent intensity, and horizontal strengthened drilling. Additionally, from 2005 to they 2016. highlighted Moreover, emerging they described technology the in most innovativethe shale technology industry, such in theas model shale simulation industry,s includingfor more precise synthetic exploration, carbon fracturing oxide, fracture technology proppant, in hydraulicthe deep fracturing, pay-zone and, water horizontal treatment drilling., and environmental Additionally, protecti theyon highlighted technology. emerging technology in From the perspective of the economics of technology, production cost is a proxy for measuring the shale industry, such as model simulations for more precise exploration, fracturing technology in the magnitude of innovation, and innovation based on technical change reduces the production cost the deep pay-zone, water treatment, and environmental protection technology. as a result of technological development. A study on technological progress focusing on productivity Fromincrease thes was perspective conducted of by the Wright economics in 1936 of[8] technology,. The author analyze productiond the factors cost is inducing a proxy fora decrease measuring the magnitudein the production of innovation, costs of andthe airplane innovation industry. based This on technicalprior research change on reducestechnological the production development cost as a resultfoun ofd technologicala productivity development. gain that occurs A studyaccording on technologicalto learned labor progress skills focusingbased on oncumulative productivity increasesproduction. was conducted Technological by Wright development in 1936 analyzed [8]. The authoraccording analyzed to reputed the factorscumulative inducing production a decrease in theactivities production have costsbeen applied of the airplanein many ways. industry. This prior research on technological development found a productivity gain that occurs according to learned labor skills based on cumulative production. Technological development analyzed according to reputed cumulative production activities have been applied in many ways. Sustainability 2018, 10, 3322 3 of 11 The Boston Consulting Group (BCG) proposed an experience curve model with the same mathematic expression as a learning curve [9]. Furthermore, the BCG suggested that
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